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Nate Schmidt, Vegas Golden Knights Exchange Arbitration Figures

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Nate Schmidt is one of the final arbitration cases and is due to have a hearing on Thursday morning in Toronto with the Vegas Golden Knights. The two sides traded figures today, with the team offering a two-year deal worth a total of $1.95MM while Schmidt is looking for a one-year $2.75MM award according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet.

Schmidt is the final restricted free agent left to sign for the Golden Knights, who are still working towards avoiding arbitration with the young defender. With two years left before he hits unrestricted free agency, the team opted for the two-year term that will take him right to the open market. As discussed previously, the Golden Knights are clearly trying to position themselves as a player at the trade deadline, and seem uninterested in players signed for more than two years.

While they could still reach a longer term deal with Schmidt, it’s not clear if they view him as a long-term piece of the franchise or a valuable asset that can continue to kick start a build through the draft. The dynamic skater could easily be one of the top options for a team this deadline looking to shore up their defense, especially after the excellent showing he had in the playoffs for the Washington Capitals. Schmidt almost made Karl Alzner obsolete, arguably playing better than him when the now-Montreal Canadien went down to injury in the first round.

Schmidt is coming off a year where he made $875K, so Vegas is offering him a very modest raise heading into next season. As always, these are outer limits for the negotiation and an arbitration decision would almost certainly come somewhere in the middle. In 60 games, Schmidt put up 17 points and was generally effective, though he still doesn’t have a very high profile among fans mostly due to his lack of draft pedigree. He was signed out of the University of Minnesota in 2013.

Calvin de Haan, New York Islanders Exchange Arbitration Figures

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Arbitration hearings get back to business on Wednesday after a short break due to early settlements, and Calvin de Haan is next up on the agenda. The two sides exchanged figures today, and they’re still quite a bit apart on his value for next season. According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, the New York Islanders’ offered a one-year $1.95MM deal, while de Haan’s camp is looking for a one-year $5MM contract. As we’ve seen, the two sides can come to an agreement even after the hearing, in the 48-hours the arbitrator has to decide on a salary for next season. Calvin de Haan

de Haan is in his final year of restricted free agency and therefore could not receive a two-year deal in arbitration like most players. He’ll be heading to unrestricted free agency next summer if it comes down to an arbitrator’s decision, though obviously an extension is still possible after that. If he’s looking for at least $5MM through his UFA years though, the Islanders’ may not be able to afford to keep him. The team already has Nick Leddy and Johnny Boychuk locked up long term for $11.5MM combined, and will need all the money they can get for what is turning into a huge summer for them in 2018. Not only is John Tavares due for a massive extension, but Josh Bailey, Nikolai Kulemin and Thomas Hickey are set to become UFAs and the team will have to decide what to do in net behind (or beside) Thomas Greiss. Brock Nelson, Alan Quine, Shane Prince, Ryan Pulock and Scott Mayfield are all restricted free agents needing new contracts, with most eligible for arbitration.

So, it will be interesting to see what de Haan is awarded should it get that far. He’s coming off a year in which he recorded a career-high in points with 25 while playing over 19 minutes a night for the fourth straight season. Playing in all 82 games he easily led the team in blocked shots and is an excellent possession player in terms of both shot generation and suppression. His effect is clear at both ends of the rink, and he’s asking to be paid like a true top-4 option. The Islanders’ counter seems to make little sense, since de Haan’s qualifying offer was $2.5MM and even his cap hit was (slightly) more than $1.95MM last season.

It would be almost impossible for an arbitrator to decide that the Islanders’ number is acceptable, though unlike the MLB the decision does not have to be one or the other. They can award any salary, and anything over $4MM the Islanders can choose to walk away from. It’s unlikely they’d do that in this case, as they’re trying to compete this season but it would be interesting with only $6.9MM left in cap space and a clear desire to add another piece before the start of the season. Depending on the decision they could be forced to move some salary out in any trade, making a deal for a top name like Matt Duchene even harder to accomplish.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Ryan Spooner Signs With Boston Bruins

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The Boston Bruins have avoided arbitration with Ryan Spooner after all, signing the restricted free agent forward to a one-year $2.825MM contract. Spooner was scheduled for a hearing today, and had asked for a $3.85MM contract. The team had countered with $2MM. Ryan Spooner

Spooner was one of the more interesting RFAs to watch this summer, who has obvious offensive talent but has been criticized throughout his short career for both his defensive play and effort level. The Bruins release seems to echo that idea, with this statement from GM Don Sweeney:

We know Ryan has the offensive skills to be an impactful player, especially while on the power play. We expect Ryan to continue to take the necessary steps with his development to be an even more complete, two-way player.

One of the better powerplay forwards in the league, he had run-ins with both Claude Julien and Bruce Cassidy throughout the season, and was eventually benched in the playoffs to make room for Sean Kuraly. Spooner remains a top trade candidate, and this contract could even make it easier to facilitate a move somewhere else around the league.

While some obviously think he’ll never turn around his defensive liabilities, a 40-point forward for less than $3MM is still a valuable commodity. The fact that Spooner can play center ice adds to that, though it was clear Boston didn’t love using him in that role this past season. Next season the Bruins could move him to the wing full-time if they believe Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson is ready to take over at center ice, though that is far from decided at this point.

Since Spooner is 25, this contract leaves him as a restricted free agent again next summer and eligible for arbitration once again. If it is with Boston, another big offensive season would force their hand into either signing him long-term or moving him somewhere that would. It will be interesting to see if they continue to give him powerplay time, because without it much of his leverage is taken away in negotiations.

The Bruins retain more than $10MM in cap space with which to sign David Pastrnak, a deal that should extend long-term and carry a very substantial cap hit. With another big cap hit added up front, it will be a tight fit next summer to hand out term to Spooner unless he makes himself indispensable this season. The Bruins will have five forwards already making at least $6MM each, taking up nearly half of the entire salary cap.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was first to report the deal.

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Matt Nieto Signs With Colorado Avalanche

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Another player has avoided arbitration, as according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet Matt Nieto has signed a one-year deal with the Colorado Avalanche for $1MM next season. Neito had an arbitration hearing scheduled for July 31st, but won’t need it any longer after reaching an agreement.

Nieto, 24, came to the Avalanche via waivers this season when they selected him from the San Jose Sharks in early January. Thrust into an increased role in Colorado, Nieto responded with 11 points in 43 games but was a rather effective penalty killer and depth winger. Though he hasn’t been able to replicate his 27-point 2014-15 season, he’s still a positive possession player and young enough to improve next season for the Avalanche.

Playing last year for just $735K, Nieto will get a nice raise before looking longer-term next summer. At that point he will be 25, arbitration eligible for the second time and just two years away from unrestricted free agency. Though he’s not a player you’d want to commit to for more than a few seasons at a time, he does still have that potential that made him a second-round pick and allowed him to dominate the college ranks for Boston University. Nieto recorded 102 points in his three-year career with BU, even though he debuted as a 17-year old playing against men much older than him.

New York Islanders Sign Adam Pelech

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The New York Islanders have signed Adam Pelech to a four-year deal worth a total of $6.4MM. The 22-year old will earn an average salary of $1.6MM, and be expected to take on a bigger role for the Islanders this season. GM Garth Snow released a statement about the signing:

Adam has proven at a very young age that he’s capable of playing an important defensive role on our team. He will be an important piece of our defensive core moving forward and I’m excited to watch him continue to develop at the NHL level.

Pelech took a step forward this year and spent most of the season in the NHL, suiting up for 44 games. Though he registered just ten points and had many point out the obvious flaws in his game, he is still just 22 and a few years removed from putting up some huge totals in the OHL. Not much of that offensive upside has shown itself at the professional level, but he could still improve on that side of the ice once he feels more comfortable at the NHL level.

The Islanders still have Calvin de Haan to sign, but after working out a deal with him (or being given a decision from an arbitrator) they’ll have seven defensemen on NHL contracts even after the trade of Travis Hamonic. Ryan Pulock, another 22-year old on an entry-level contract is also expected to battle for a full-time role in the NHL, giving the team plenty of options on who to put on the ice each night.

At $1.6MM, Pelech actually jumps up to the fourth-highest paid defenseman on the team until de Haan signs. Though there are some solid options there, relying on Pelech to be much more than a bottom-pairing player this year would be a tough position for the young defender. The team will need to get big performances out of Thomas Hickey and Dennis Seidenberg, two players who have shown their limitations when placed in tough matchups.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet first reported the deal, while Arthur Staple of Newsday gives us the financial breakdown. 

Rangers, Zibanejad Exchange Arbitration Numbers

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With the arbitration hearing for New York Rangers center Mika Zibanejad coming up this Tuesday, July 25th, the two sides have exchanged salary figures. According to Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman, Zibanejad’s side is asking for $5.35MM, while the team is offering $4.1MM.

While there’s been no word thus far on the term either side is requesting, it is reasonable to assume that Zibanejad would like just a one-year award if the negotiations go all the way through the arbitration process. The first year in New York did not go as planned for the 24-year-old pivot, as injury limited him to just 56 games. While the swift Swede was still able to put up 37 points, he snapped his 20-goal season streak and was unable to show off much of his physical game, playing a much more careful style. Nevertheless, Zibanejad still displayed his scoring ability, with a career-high 0.66 points per game and an 11.8% shooting percentage, as well as his two-way ability with a +9 rating and career-best 52% face-off winning percentage. He also skated in 12 playoff games and looked impressive, registering nine points and a +4 rating in nearly 18 minutes of ice time per game.

The Rangers may have expected more from Zibanejad in year one, but when he was healthy he was everything they could ask for. The last thing that New York wants is a short-term deal that exposes Zibanejad to unrestricted free agency anytime soon. Having traded Derick Brassard to acquire Zibanejad just around this time last year, they want to make that deal count. Expect the Rangers to do what they can to lessen the annual average value of the deal based on injury concerns in 2016-17, but in the end do what it takes to secure a long-term deal. New York will likely be the side to budge, despite a strange first season together, and this contract will likely end up as a five or six year pact (or longer) worth somewhere around $4.75MM+ per year, similar to the deal Brassard himself signed with the Rangers back in 2014.

Arbitration Breakdown: Brian Dumoulin

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With the reports of a huge financial gap between the two parties, it seems quite likely that Brian Dumoulin will reach his arbitration date. Whether the team can hammer out a deal before needing to accept that decision remains to be seen. They are still far apart in terms of value according to Elliotte Friedman, as the team only offered $1.95 MM compared to his agent’s number of $4.35 MM. Dumoulin has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh for their two Stanley Cup runs, but he has a difficult quantitative case to make to earn the money he is seeking.

The Numbers

Dumoulin was huge in the absence of Kris Letang. When the Penguins’ top defender was again sidelined to injury, Dumoulin’s ice-time skyrocketed to first-pairing usage. He finished the season with an average ice time of 20:33, but often saw far more down the stretch. In the playoffs, he averaged 21:59. Those are the numbers of an upper echelon second-pairing defenseman, but when you consider that he almost never sees powerplay time, and the defensive situations he is trusted in, he’s a borderline top-pairing player.

Dumoulin isn’t an offensive force in any regard. He’s only tallied 33 points through his 163 regular season games played, and 3 of his 5 career goals come from post-season action. Still, he can move the puck with relative efficiency and can be relied on to tally a little under 20 assists a season.

Dumoulin faces tough quality-of-competition, and that will be his biggest argument for the compensation he is seeking. However, his Corsi and Fenwick, the most utilized advanced statistics, don’t show improvement for the player last year. When these stats are taken without context, Dumoulin’s 2016-17 playoffs was his worst outing to date. He had a brutal 41.2% Corsi For through 25 post-season contests, down from his 2015-16 run’s 52.8%. His regular season totals showed a less drastic ’decline’, but the tougher minutes and far greater shots allowed team-wide brought his advanced statistics back down to merely average. He has shots blocked (99) and penalty killing prowess to turn to, but those are difficult figures to primarily base a case for a raise upon.

Potential Comparables

Here are some comparable players and their contracts.

Travis Hamonic (Calgary) – Although it may seem an odd comparison to some, the underlying numbers for these players aren’t dissimilar. Both have never broken 5 goals in a season and neither scores a particularly impressive amount of points. They are physical without being intimaditing and can skate well enough to survive in today’s NHL. They both block shots with consistency and contribute over 20 minutes of icetime a night. Hamonic signed his long-term deal worth $3.86 MM all the way back in 2013, which was a bit of an overpayment at the time in hopes of keeping the AAV down as he progressed. This seems a little under what most players with the skillset are looking for in 2017, but it’s an interesting parallel.

Calvin de Haan (NY Islanders) – Dumoulin’s contract will be a bit of a barometer for the Isles’ de Haan, as it will show the direction the arbiters are leaning on not-so-flashy defenders. As the only other RFA defenseman other than Vegas’ Nate Schmidt likely to earn more than $2 MM, de Haan and the Islanders will be watching the outcome of this case to determine who has greater leverage. De Haan still has great upside, but has played in a far more sheltered role on a deep defense.

Cody Ceci (Ottawa) – Ceci is not considered to be quite the asset that Dumoulin is, but seeing as his contract was awarded merely a year ago, this sort of bargain is what the Penguins are likely aiming toward. Ceci signed a two-year deal worth only $2.8 MM a season, after a 10 goal, 26 point season where he averaged nearly 19 minutes a night. Dumoulin has never seen that kind of production, but up until last season comparatively played against greater competition. Ceci is due for another arbitration hearing at the conclusion of the 2017-18 campaign, as his past contract was a sort of bridge deal.

Jacob Trouba (Winnipeg) – Again, another bargain for a defenseman that was handed out last season. Trouba’s negotiations dragged on into the regular season, before he finally accepted a two-year agreement, with the first year at $3.31 MM and the second year at $2.81 MM. Trouba is much more offensive than Dumoulin, but has generally seen more icetime and a similar difficulty of competition. Just like the Penguins, there was a large degree of disagreement in the financial value of the player between the organization and the agent. Dumoulin has championship pedigree to tout at his hearing, however, whereas Trouba was largely banking on his potential as a former first-rounder.

Projection

Dumoulin is an interesting case because he is undoubtedly an integral piece of the Pittsburgh blueline, but has little outside of truly advanced statistics to prove his case. How much will their championship runs inflate his value? How much is a stay-at-home defender worth, especially when his possession numbers have taken a hit?

Ultimately, if Dumoulin were a UFA rather than a RFA, he’d easily attract contract offers around $5 MM. As an RFA however, his predecessors haven’t seen a whole lot of success in proving their case. Shots blocked and plus minus are nice, but considering the trend of the league, they are not going to benefit his standing all that much. A lot of Dumoulin’s value is hard to quantify, and there’s the very real possibility that his bargaining position suffers as a result. Ultimately, his exposure in two long playoff runs will bring his value back to a fairer mark, and he will earn far more than the team’s ask of $1.9 MM. Somewhere in the range of $3 MM seems the likely award if the arbitration decision is actually needed. However, it’s unlikely that the parties don’t come to a longer-term agreement before that time. The Penguins need to lock him down as part of their defense, and a multi-year contract at around $4 MM is probable. GM Jim Rutherford will likely posture til the last conceivable minute, but his internal value is far too great to risk him walking in summer free agency in the next two years.

Viktor Arvidsson Signs 7-Year Extension With Nashville

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First reported byElliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, and then confirmed by Adam Vingan of the Tenessean, Nashville has secured a long-term deal to lock up their restricted free agent Viktor Arvidsson, forgoing the need for an arbitrator’s ruling. The crafty forward’s contract is good for 7 seasons, at an AAV of only $4.25 MM.

Arvidsson’s arbitration hearing took place earlier today, and the figures that were being thrown out earlier nearly assured that Nashville was bound to get a solid deal. Arvidsson asked for only one year at $4.5 MM whereas the team opted for two years at a mere $2.75 MM. Arvidsson was the team’s leading goal scorer, and one of the biggest surprises of the season. His offensive explosion helped carry the team to the Stanley Cup Final, and at only 24 should be a huge part of the team’s future for a long time. His advanced statistics, in addition to his 30+ goal season, really make the player attractive league-wide. His 55 % Corsi For puts him in elite company among  top-six wingers facing similar level of competition.

Getting a 61-point winger on a cost-controlled contract for the next 7 years is truly impressive work for GM David Poile. It should be kept in mind that there is a small element of risk here, as this was a total breakout season after a mediocre first pro year which saw him score only 16 points through 56 games. if Arvidsson can maintain anywhere near last season’s level of productivity, though, he will be incredibly cost-effective. His remarkable progression basically made James Neal expendable in the expansion draft, and now it seems that Poile is confident enough to lock the player down for the foreseeable future. At only 5’9, the player has faced doubters who question his long-term value, but he is now unquestionably a core piece in Tennessee.

When taken in reference another of this year’s RFAs, Tomas Tatar was awarded earlier today with a deal worth $5.3 MM AAV. Granted, Tatar had three consecutive 50+ point seasons which led to that figure. Arvidsson may only continue to progress, securing himself as a truly elite winger. By extending Arvidsson for such a long period, Nashville managed to bring a potentially more productive player than Tatar in at a figure far less cumbersome.

Jordan Martinook Re-Signs With Arizona

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The Arizona Coyotes and two-way forward Jordan Martinook have avoided arbitration, coming to terms on a new deal today. Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that Martinook has signed a two-year, $3.6MM deal to remain in the desert. The two sides have reportedly been close on contract terms for a while, but there was also speculation that Martinook would wait for his arbitration hearing this Wednesday, July 26th, before making a decision. Instead, the big forward has signed on for two more years with the promising young Coyotes, where he could soon take on a larger role for the team.

Martinook, in just his second full NHL season, has already shown that he is a model of consistency and effort. Capable of playing both center and left wing, Martinook is the perfect versatile bottom-six forward. He plays a smart two-way game, including leading the Coyotes’ penalty kill unit, and brings a physical edge and swift defensive style. He can also put up some offense, with 24 and 25 points respectively in his first two full seasons, including 11 goals in 2016-17.

The 24-year-old Martinook is just beginning to show his NHL upside, and should take on a much larger role for Arizona going forward. Amazingly, with Shane Doan and Radim Vrbata now gone, Martinook is second only to Tobias Rieder in games played with Arizona among forwards on the team with just 166 contests. The absence of those veterans will naturally allow for more ice time and scoring opportunity for Martinook, but as full-effort player and one of the longest-tenured forwards on a young term, Martinook could also be in line for a leadership position in the locker room. At just $1.8MM per year for a well-rounded player about to take the next step in his development, GM John Chayka and the Coyotes may have a bargain on their hands with Martinook’s new contract.

Tomas Tatar Signs Four-Year Deal With Detroit Red Wings

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Even after the arbitration hearing went down yesterday, the Detroit Red Wings and Tomas Tatar have come to an agreement on a long-term contract. The four-year deal will pay Tatar $21.2MM, for an average of $5.3MM per season. With less than 24 hours left before an arbitrator made a decision on a one-year contract, the two sides found common ground that will keep Tatar in Detroit for a few years more. The breakdown is as follows: Tomas Tatar

  • 2017-18: $4.875MM salary + $1.125MM signing bonus
  • 2018-19: $5.5MM salary
  • 2019-20: $5.5MM salary
  • 2020-21: $3.2MM salary + $1MM signing bonus

Craig Custance of the Athletic pointed out this morning that the two sides could still reach an agreement in time, and we’ve seen this before in cases like P.K. Subban who signed an eight-year deal after his arbitration hearing in 2014. Tatar was set to become an unrestricted free agent next summer, and would have been one of the most interesting names at the trade deadline if Detroit hadn’t been in playoff contention this year.

Now, the Red Wings have more work to do. With Tatar signed, the team is now more than $3MM over the salary cap for next season with Andreas Athanasiou still to sign. The team does have Johan Franzen still under contract and heading for long-term injured reserve, but like in Toronto and Chicago the team may not want to use “summer LTIR” because of the restrictions it comes with. Instead, they could look to move out some of the hefty contracts for their declining veterans through trade or a buyout.

Like Ottawa earlier today when they signed Ryan Dzingel, this move will open a second 48-hour buyout window for the Red Wings on Monday that they could use to clear cap space. Buying out Niklas Kronwall or Jonathan Ericsson would give them around $2.6MM in savings each next season, though both seem unlikely candidates to be cast aside from the only teams they’ve ever known. Mike Green, effective but expensive leads the list of trade candidates, as he is on the final year of his current contract and likely doesn’t fit into the Red Wings timeline going forward. Moving his $6.0MM cap hit would provide quite the cap relief, if they could ever find a buyer to give them some real value in return.

Salary cap issues aside, this contract actually comes in with less total money than the five-year $25MM contract that Tatar reportedly turned down. Though it is a slightly higher cap hit, it seems as though holding firm worked out for Ken Holland in the end as he got the player for a reasonable contract. Tatar signs at the same cap hit as Ondrej Palat in Tampa Bay, a player with similar production throughout his career. Even if Detroit does decide to throw in the towel and try a real rebuild, this deal is still palatable enough to move for a solid return.

Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet was first to break the deal, while Craig Morgan of AZ Sports provided the financial breakdown.

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