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Snapshots: COVID Protocols, Rangers, Kane

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Even with over 99% percent of players and 100% of staff being vaccinated against the Coronavirus, the NHL has still been faced with constant issues battling COVID-19 this season. While only two teams have had games postponed due to COVID outbreaks, 19 different teams have had to enter heightened COVID protocols at some this season. As a result, the league is contemplating stricter protocols for all teams if the virus continues to be a problem. Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly tells TSN’s Chris Johnston that the NHL is currently working with league doctors to evaluate their COVID numbers and current protocols to see if changes can improve the state of the league’s battle with COVID. The NHL then plans to meet with the NHLPA soon to share their findings and to discuss options to better protect players and staff, as well as the league product. The COVID conversation will also impact the Olympic question, with understandable concerns from the league and players’ association about sending their stars to China given the ongoing spread of virus despite vaccination measures. The deadline for the NHL to pull out of the Winter Games in Beijing is January 10, so the upcoming meeting with the NHLPA could be a critical juncture for a decision.

  • Despite the havoc that the Coronavirus has wreaked on the past two NHL seasons (and counting), team valuations have somehow not just held strong, but in fact increased. Forbes published their 2021 NHL team values today with the impressive headline that the New York Rangers have become the league’s first $2 billion team. The Original Six franchise in the biggest market in North America increased in value by 21% from 2020 without making and significant improvement in their on-ice product. It bodes well for another potential jump next year, with the Rangers currently holding the best record in the Metropolitan Division. Unsurprisingly, New York is followed by fellow Original Six members in the Toronto Maple Leafs, Montreal Canadiens, Chicago Blackhawks, and Boston Bruins. Yet, it is not just the storied franchises who continue see growth in their value. On average, each team improved in value by 32% this year following a 2% dip the year before. The factors contributing to these soaring numbers are the league’s new media contract, their many new facilities, and of course the addition of their newest team, the Seattle Kraken. The recent sale of the Pittsburgh Penguins for $900 million also provided Forbes’ Mike Ozanian with a very up-to-date benchmark of actual real world value of a top franchise. While the optics of the past couple seasons – canceled games, limited attendance, temporary realignment – may portray a struggling league, the NHL has actually excelled in the face of adversity in their battle with COVID-19.
  • One player who is likely more familiar with financial terms that he ever hoped is San Jose Sharks forward Evander Kane. The controversial star has had quite the year with bankruptcy proceedings, a league investigation into illegal gambling, a league suspension for COVID Protocol circumvention and more. Kane has seemingly been losing money at every turn. However, he is now off his suspension and – though reassigned to the AHL – ready to get back on the ice and earning his pay check. Well, maybe not so fast. Curtis Pashelka of the San Jose Mercury News writes that the organization is not yet ready to give Kane any game action, even with minor league Barracuda. Pashelka writes that concerns about his conditioning, having missed training camp and the first quarter of the season, have limited Kane in practice and will keep him from competiting again this weekend. Pashelka also mentions an undisclosed injury and quotes Kane as being on board with a slow approach to returning to play. However, the scribe also touches on what is likely the root cause of Kane’s inaction: trade value. It does not appear as if Kane is welcome back in the Sharks’ locker room, but with three years remaining on a hefty contract, he needs to play somewhere. The consistent scoring forward is an established asset: high-end ability on the ice, red flags off the ice. San Jose is working the phones to find a new fit for Kane and won’t gain any leverage by having play in AHL game. However, they could lose out if he is injured. As a result, Kane could be used sparingly until he is eventually dealt elsewhere.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Dallas Stars

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season passes the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Dallas Stars.

What are the Stars thankful for?

The 2017 Anaheim Ducks.

Hear this one out. At the 2017 deadline, the Stars traded Patrick Eaves, then on a one-year, $1MM deal, to the Ducks in exchange for a conditional draft pick. Eaves was in the midst of a career year, scoring 21 goals in his first 59 games with the Stars and making him a prime deadline target. He’d go on to rack up another 11 goals in 20 regular season games for Anaheim, but it was the postseason performance that the Stars were interested in. If the Ducks made it to the third round and Eaves played in at least 50% of the games to that point the Stars would receive Anaheim’s first-round pick in 2017. Otherwise, it would be a second-rounder.

The Ducks ended up making it to the Conference Finals, but it wasn’t because of Eaves. He ended up playing in just seven games through the first two rounds, still enough to cover that 50% threshold. The team had needed 11 games to get through those series against the Flames and Oilers, squeaking out a 2-1 win in game seven to ensure the Stars would have an extra first-round pick.

That pick, which ended up being 26th overall, was used on Jake Oettinger. He joins Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson as the team’s first three selections that year and arguably the three most important pieces of Dallas’ future at this point. The 22-year-old Oettinger currently has a .951 save percentage at the NHL level this year and a perfect 5-0 record.

Who are the Stars thankful for?

Miro Heiskanen.

It’s not very often that a team could consider a player like John Klingberg a bit redundant, but that’s exactly the situation in Dallas as Heiskanen has completely taken over control of the Stars’ blueline. The third-overall pick from that 2017 draft, Heiskanen averages close to 25 minutes a night, has 16 points in 22 games, and makes the whole machine turn. While some may overlook him because of the market he plays in or the style in which he effortlessly floats around the ice, Heiskanen is a legitimate star in the league and will be a leader in Dallas for a long time.

Need even more reason for thanks? The Philadelphia Flyers could have had Heiskanen (or Cale Makar, which is another story) at the draft, but selected Nolan Patrick second overall instead, leaving the smooth-skating Finn for the Stars to snap up.

What would the Stars be even more thankful for?

Denis Gurianov’s consistency to come back.

In 2019-20, the Stars gave Gurianov his first full-time shot in the NHL and he rewarded them with strong, powerful play. Even though he wasn’t seeing a ton of ice time, he was always a threat to score, tallying 20 goals in 64 games. Perhaps the fact that he had just nine assists during that stretch should have been a warning sign, but the 12th overall pick from 2015 has been frustratingly inconsistent–at least in terms of goal scoring–since.

He posted just 12 tallies last season and there were stretches of up to 15 games where he failed to put one in the back of the net. This year he has just four goals and eight points in 21 games, not exactly what they were expecting from that impressive rookie. Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson are the present and future of the Stars offense, but it sure would be helpful to have Gurianov living up to his draft pedigree. He’d benefit from it too, given he’s going to be an arbitration-eligible restricted free agent this summer.

What should be on the Stars’ Holiday Wish List?

A “hockey trade” for one of their goaltenders.

The Stars have too many goalies. Oettinger can’t even get playing time because of the red hot Braden Holtby who has become the starter, while Anton Khudobin has struggled in his part-time role. That’s not even mentioning Ben Bishop, who is on a conditioning stint and will be ready to return to action in a few days.

The Stars need more offense and several teams around the league need goaltending, but the crunch is coming for Dallas. If they can work out a way to leverage one of these talented netminders into another forward (especially one that can play center when needed), this hot streak they’re on may not end anytime soon.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Goalie Notes: Lehner, Bishop, Rask

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Jacob Markstrom is a likely candidate for the starting goaltender position for Sweden at the upcoming Olympics, but another promising option was Robin Lehner. That isn’t the case anymore, as Lehner tweeted last night that he will not be attending the Olympics.

Lehner, who has been very open about his struggles with mental health over the years, notes that this is a decision that puts that health ahead of his desire to compete for his country in what he calls a “once in a lifetime opportunity.” The uncertainty around what would happen if an athlete tests positive for COVID-19 while in China is part of why he made the decision.

  • The Dallas Stars are expected to send Ben Bishop to the minor leagues on a conditioning stint this week, according to Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News. Bishop hasn’t played since the 2020 bubble playoffs, but is finally getting close to being healthy enough to play again. The 35-year-old netminder is still signed through 2022-23 and carries a $4.92MM cap hit. He’ll become the fourth NHL-level goaltender for the Stars once he’s cleared to return to action, joining Anton Khudobin (who has been on the trade block in recent weeks), Braden Holtby, and Jake Oettinger.
  • There was a pretty impressive emergency backup goaltender at Boston Bruins practice today, as Tuukka Rask joined his former teammates despite still not having an NHL contract. Rask is still working his way back from offseason surgery, and has previously expressed that he would only return to the NHL for the Bruins. For now, he remains unsigned, but that could change at some point in the near future if he shows he’s healthy enough to help the team.

Dallas Stars Shopping Anton Khudobin

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The Dallas Stars have a goaltending tandem they trust – and it doesn’t include veteran Anton Khudobin. Free agent addition Braden Holtby leads the team with ten appearances and has looked like his old self, posting a .927 save percentage and 2.30 GAA. Yet it is young Jake Oettinger who has been making headlines, recording a stunning .951 save percentage and 1.41 GAA in six games. In contrast, Khudobin is playing the worst hockey of his NHL career with an .837 save percentage and 3.73 GAA in seven appearances. While the Stars have been hot of late, currently riding a six-game winning streak, Khudobin has not played since November 18.

With Holtby and Oettinger having earned the NHL jobs and (though easy to forget) former starter Ben Bishop still trying to work his way back from a long-term knee injury, Khudobin has become expendable. However, despite his struggles, the Stars will not simply just waive the respected veteran, at least not yet. Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek reports that the team is actively shopping Khudobin in hopes of finding a trade partner.

While the Stars surely will not receive nearly the package they might have commanded for Khudobin just a couple years ago when he led the NHL with a .930 save percentage, the Stars still have incentive to search for a trade rather than keeping him for depth. The first is obvious; Khudobin may still have some value around the league. In fact, Marek states definitively that the Buffalo Sabres have expressed interest in the experienced netminder and there are certainly other teams that could also use help in net. With confidence in their current options, there is no reason for Dallas to pass up potential trade capital. However, Khudobin’s contract is another factor that the Stars need to manage. Simply waiving and demoting Khudobin only saves the team $1.075MM of the goaltender’s $3.33MM cap hit. That contract also carries an additional year. Dallas needs the space that could be opened up from moving Khudobin’s contract in its entirety, which means they will work to find a team with enough need in net to trade for the veteran. The next step would be to waive Khudobin and hope he is claimed; even if he is unclaimed the Stars will continue to shop Khudobin, who will have some extra transactional versatility should he clear.

One way or another, it seems like the Stars have come to the conclusion that they can benefit more from being rid of Khudobin than continuing to keep him around. At some point, it is likely that the veteran keeper will find a new home this season.

 

Stars Working To Find Partner For Anton Khudobin Trade

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  • Coming in at No. 5 on The Fourth Period’s Trade Watch List 2021-22 is Dallas Stars goalie Anton Khudobin. Over the weekend, multiple reports appeared suggesting the Stars were actively trying to find a trade partner for the 35-year-old Khudobin. With just a 3-3-1 record and .873 save percentage on the year, he’s quickly becoming the odd man out in a crowded goalie situation in the Lone Star state. Offseason addition Braden Holtby is having somewhat of a renaissance season with a .927 save percentage in 10 starts, while up-and-comer Jake Oettinger has yet to lose this season and has a .951 save percentage in five starts. Oettinger began the season in the AHL but it’s becoming apparent that after a promising rookie campaign last year, he’s simply too good for a third-string role. Khudobin has two seasons left on his contract with a $3.33MM cap hit and has a four-team no-trade list in effect this season, per CapFriendly.

Hurricanes Have Shown Interest In John Klingberg

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The Hurricanes have inquired about the availability of Stars defenseman John Klingberg, Sportsnet’s Jeff Marek reports (video link).  The 29-year-old is in the final year of his contract and a report earlier in the season suggested that he was seeking a max-term eight-year extension worth over $60MM, a price tag that Dallas clearly hasn’t been willing to meet yet.  He’s off to a quiet start to his season with no goals and seven assists in 15 games although his track record suggests he’ll turn things around offensively.  The fit in Carolina is interesting as they’re already using LTIR and don’t have the cap space to take on Klingberg’s $4.25MM AAV; they’d need Dallas to retain or to send close to matching money the other way.  They already have a strong back end and Klingberg would certainly give them a big boost but it’s the type of trade that is more plausible closer to the trade deadline than this early in the season.

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $85,575,985 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

G Jake Oettinger (one year, $925K)
F Jacob Peterson (two years, $842.5K)
F Jason Robertson (one year, $795K)

Potential Bonuses
Oettinger: $537.5K
Peterson: $82.5K
Robertson: $82.5K
Total: $702.5K

Peterson spending this much time on the roster early on in his first season in North America is a bit of a surprise but the fact he has done well is certainly encouraging for the Stars.  With it being his first year, it’s hard to project where his next deal will be but he’s well on his way to hitting some of his games played bonus money.  Robertson finished second on the Stars in scoring last season and is hovering near the point per game mark again this year.  Limited action in his rookie campaign hurts his bargaining power a little but as long as he can play at a similar level to last year, he should have enough of a case to argue for a long-term contract with an AAV that could check in close to the one Carolina’s Andrei Svechnikov recently received (eight years, $7.75MM cap hit).

Oettinger is listed here more to talk about his next contract than anything else as he’s basically the third-string option this season unless they move two veteran goalies out.  He could be a regular again in 2022-23 and while he’s someone that Dallas would be wise to try to get a multi-year agreement in place with, there’s little reason for the youngster to agree to that.  A one-year agreement that gets him to arbitration eligibility in the 2023 summer would be his best course of action even if it means his salary won’t jump up too much for next season.  Meanwhile, as he has ‘A’ bonuses, it’s unlikely he’ll hit them this season unless he’s up full-time before too much longer which will help lessen their carryover penalty.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Denis Gurianov ($2.55MM, RFA)
G Braden Holtby ($2MM, UFA)
D John Klingberg ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Joe Pavelski ($7MM, UFA)
F Alexander Radulov ($6.25MM, UFA)
F Michael Raffl ($1.1MM, UFA)
D Andrej Sekera ($1.5MM, UFA)

Pavelski’s first season was quiet aside from a strong playoff run which carried over into last year when he led the Stars in scoring.  He’s still producing like a top-six forward at a minimum (if not a top-liner last season) but he’s also going to be 38 when 2022-23 gets underway.  A one-year deal seems likely which opens up the potential for bonuses as well.  Even so, he’s going to be heading for at least a small dip although something in the $4MM-$5MM range is certainly possible.  Radulov is the other big-ticket deal coming off the books.  He’s coming off an injury-plagued season and is off to a particularly tough start this year.  He’ll be 36 next season and there will be questions as to whether or not he can still play in the top six of an NHL team.  As someone that has opted to take bigger money overseas once before, it’s definitely a possibility here if his AAV dips into the $3MM range.

Gurianov got this bridge coming off an improbable 20-goal season but still hasn’t been able to establish himself as a consistent top-six forward.  He’s young enough (24) to get a longer leash but his qualifying offer jumps to $2.9MM next summer.  With the start to the season he’s having, it’s hard to see him getting much more than that in theory but with arbitration eligibility, he should be able to use that to push past the $3MM mark.  Raffl has been more of a fourth liner in recent years and after going through the market this past summer, it’s safe to say his value next summer should check in fairly close to his current $1.1MM price tag.

If Dallas is going to reallocate some of Pavelski or Radulov’s money, Klingberg could very well be the beneficiary.  A report last month pegged his asking price at over $60MM over eight years, an AAV of $7.5MM or higher.  That’s a significant jump over his current price tag although he has the offensive production to try to shoot that high.  The Stars may not prefer to go eight years but if it keeps the cap hit lower, they’ll seriously have to consider it.  Sekera hasn’t been an impact blueliner for a few years now and has been more of a depth player in Dallas.  He’ll have to take a pay cut to get another NHL deal and could be a candidate for an incentive-based deal with a guarantee not far off the minimum with a few hundred thousand in games placed bonuses.

Holtby landing with Dallas was one of the more puzzling goalie moves this summer although they got him at a heavily discounted rate compared to a few years ago.  Of course, there’s a reason for that since he was bought out by Vancouver.  He’s off to a decent start this season which could help him restore some value and get closer to that higher tier of backups in the high-$3MM range.

Two Years Remaining

G Ben Bishop ($4.917MM, UFA)
F Luke Glendening ($1.5MM, UFA)
D Joel Hanley ($750K, UFA)
F Roope Hintz ($3.15MM, RFA)
G Anton Khudobin ($3.33MM, UFA)
F Joel Kiviranta ($1.05MM, UFA)

Hintz has largely flown under the radar in Dallas with several high-priced veterans in front of him but he was a top-liner for them last season.  His output has dipped early on this year but there’s still time to turn that around.  Their cap situation in 2020 forced a bridge deal but Hintz will have the hammer in the next negotiation with arbitration rights, a $3.79MM qualifier (120% of the AAV), and being a year away from UFA eligibility.  A long-term deal in the $6MM range is certainly doable for him.  Glendening is a role player at this point but as one of the best faceoff players in the league most years, it allows him to get more of a premium compared to other fourth liners.  As long as he keeps winning draws at a clip better than most, there’s no reason to think he can’t get another deal around this price tag in 2023.  Kiviranta was at his best in the 2020 bubble but has yet to establish himself as a full-time NHL player yet and has been limited when he is in the lineup.  If that continues, he’ll be hard-pressed to get this on the open market, let alone more.

Hanley has been on a minimum contract for the last several seasons, serving as low-cost depth.  That’s a roster spot they’ll want to keep at that price point so he could stick around for a little while yet.

Bishop missed all of last season and all of this year so far which has him on LTIR.  However, he has been skating regularly for a while now but they can’t afford to activate him without clearing cap space first so that’s something to watch for from Dallas in the near future.  With how much time he has missed and the fact his next deal will be his age-37 season, it’s not a guarantee Bishop gets another contract and if he does, a one-year, incentive-based deal with a lower salary is all he could hope for.  Khudobin’s numbers dipped last season and have gotten considerably worse so far in 2021-22.  Like Bishop, his next contract will be his age-37 season so he’ll probably be eyeing a one-year deal at best and if his numbers continue to be this poor, it’ll be at a much lower cost than his current one.

Three Years Remaining

D Jani Hakanpaa ($1.5MM, UFA)

Hakanpaa got himself on the map last season as he played in 57 games between Anaheim and Carolina (notable in itself considering it was a 56-game campaign) while providing plenty of physicality from the back end.  That resulted in a fairly strong market for him in free agency, allowing him to get three years after only his first NHL season at the age of 29.  He’ll need to move into a top-four role to have an opportunity for a bigger deal next time around.

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Blake Comeau Dealing With Nagging Injury, Hasn't Yet Reported To AHL

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  • After clearing waivers earlier this month, Dallas winger Blake Comeau hasn’t made it to the AHL just yet. Instead, it turns out that he is dealing with a nagging injury, relays Mike Heika of the Stars team site (Twitter link).  The plan is for the 35-year-old to be re-evaluated in three weeks.  Comeau had a goal in six games before passing through waivers unclaimed while averaging just 11:28 per game.

Stars Recall Jake Oettinger; Braden Holtby Listed As Day-To-Day

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  • The Stars are recalling goaltender Jake Oettinger from AHL Texas, reports Saad Yousuf of The Athletic (Twitter link).  Braden Holtby is listed as day-to-day with a lower-body injury that has been lingering since training camp so Oettinger will serve as the backup for Dallas for the time being.

Three Players Clear Waivers

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Nov 12: Comeau and Kero have both cleared waivers, according to Matthew DeFranks of The Dallas Morning News. They can now be assigned to the minor leagues. Grimaldi has also cleared for the Predators.

Nov 11: Chris Johnston of TSN reports that Blake Comeau and Tanner Kero of the Dallas Stars, and Rocco Grimaldi of the Nashville Predators have all been placed on waivers today.

Comeau is clearly the biggest surprise of the three, given his place with the Stars and history in the NHL. The veteran winger has been wearing an “A” as an alternate captain at times this year and has more than 900 games played at the NHL level. Many of those have come with the Stars, who he has been with since 2018, when he signed a three-year, $7.2MM deal with the club in free agency.

Now on a one-year, $1MM contract he signed in June, Comeau’s cap hit will be entirely buried in the minor leagues even though he is a 35+ player. The restrictions on those contracts were changed in the 2020 CBA Memorandum of Understanding, but even before that his one-year deal would have been able to come off the cap if they assign him to the minor leagues.

It’s been years since Comeau was forced to play in the AHL though and it seems as though he and Grimaldi could potentially get claimed, if a team needs an experienced forward. Grimaldi has been a regular for the past three years in Nashville and even scored ten goals in 40 games last season. Kero doesn’t have quite as much experience, but did suit up 39 times for the Stars.

Notably, this is a change for Dallas, who have seemed unable to drag themselves out of the bottom of the Western Conference standings. The team has lost another two games in a row, sit at 4-6-2 on the year, and have a -12 goal differential. The organization has some young players that could potentially inject some energy into the lineup, but Comeau’s placement on waivers still comes as something of a surprise.

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