Jim Nill Discusses Robertson And Oettinger’s Next Contracts
Recently, Dallas Stars GM Jim Nill discussed with the media the upcoming negotiations he has on the table with impending RFAs Jason Robertson and Jake Oettinger (link):
“We’ll have to see what they’re looking for. The cap’s been a flat cap. They might look at it, their representatives might look at it different that the cap’s going to go up. Is it going to jump another 6, 7, 8% over the next four or five years? Are they better to go short term? Those are things that we’re going to have to walk through to see what works.”
Nill’s comments appear to suggest that on one hand, if the players’ representatives see the current flat salary cap as something that won’t go up reliably, they could take a safe approach, resulting in a long-term contract. On the other hand, if either player sees the salary cap rising significantly or reliably coming out of the flat cap, then a bridge-deal leaving them with UFA status as the cap begins to expand could be another smart option.
A long-term deal at a reasonably higher AAV could be an option either way, as it would guarantee something both sides want regardless of the cap situation. If that were the case, it could put Dallas in a tricky cap situation during the flat-cap years, but could be a favorable deal thereafter, and regardless, it locks up a franchise cornerstone player for the long haul. For the player, if the salary cap did expand, they would still have the benefit of a guaranteed long-term contract which could pay them, based on the result of the negotiation, more than they may have made during their RFA seasons.
To state the obvious, Robertson and Oettinger are not everyday RFAs for Dallas. A first-round pick in 2017, Oettinger made an immediate impact for Dallas in his debut for the Stars last season, following it up with another standout performance in 2021-22. The 2022 playoffs were Oettinger’s true introduction to the NHL though, as he almost single-handedly eliminated the Calgary Flames in the first round, playing to an incredible 1.81 goals-against average and .954 save-percentage in seven games. The start to Oettinger’s career sounds remarkably similar to that of Matt Murray, who had a strong, but quiet debut for the Pittsburgh Penguins in 2015-16 before bursting onto the scene in the 2016 playoffs, dominating for the Penguins en route to a Stanley Cup. Murray would follow it up with a strong showing in his first full season in the 2016-17 regular season and playoffs before signing a three-year, $11.25MM contract with Pittsburgh. If Oettinger were to take a bridge deal while waiting out the flat cap, one could expect it to look similar to this. Best yet for Oettinger is after Murray failed to replicate his early success during the life of that contract, he still was able to sign a four-year, $25MM deal after being dealt to the Ottawa Senators, signing before the 2020-21 season.
Impressive as Oettinger’s breakout was, Jason Robertson arguably stole the show. Dallas’ second-round pick in 2017, Robertson debuted for three games in 2019-20 before a strong rookie season in 2020-21, where he tallied 17 goals and 28 assists in 51 games. Already established as a key piece for Dallas, Robertson became a superstar in 2021-22, scoring 41 goals to go with 38 assists in just 74 games, adding another four points in seven playoff contests before hitting the RFA market. Like Oettinger, Robertson has put himself in a strong position going forward, but must decide how to approach the negotiations, considering the state of the salary cap.
As the above-mentioned article suggests, Robertson could go for the shorter bridge deal, potentially leading to a cap hit of $7MM, but could find himself with a cap hit as high as $9MM should he agree to a long-term deal. New York Islanders’ forward Mat Barzal signed a three-year bridge deal worth $7MM prior to the 2020-21 season. Though Robertson’s 2021-22 season was stronger than Barzal’s 2019-20, Barzal did have three years of success, including an 85-point rookie season, as well as significant playoff experience, as compared to Robertson’s two full seasons of overall similar quality to Barzal.
Looking at a long-term contract, there isn’t much precedent for a contract in the $9MM AAV range for players coming off of their entry-level contract. Kyle Connor signed a seven-year contract with an AAV just shy of $7.15MM after back-to-back 57 and 66 point seasons and Nick Suzuki signed an eight-year contract with an AAV of $7.875MM after 41 points in 71 games in his rookie season and another 41 points in a lesser 56 games in the COVID-shortened 2020-21 season. Notably, Suzuki also produced an outstanding 23 points in 32 playoff games over those two seasons. Going the other way, Mitch Marner signed for six-years at just over $10.9MM per season after 94 points in 82 games the season prior; this season, Robertson was on pace for 87 points over 82 games. Unlike Robertson, Marner began his career with 61 and 69 point seasons. With no perfect comparison to Robertson, taking the history of these three comparable players shows that a long-term deal for Robertson in the $9MM AAV range is certainly within reason.
After an impressive playoff performance, Nill will have plenty on his plate this offseason to help a Stars organization complete with a mix of veteran and young talent take the next step and ultimately transition it from the veteran core to the young core. The first of these steps will be a big one, necessitated by these two big RFA contracts.
Former Minnesota North Stars Defenseman Larry Hillman Passes Away
After leaving Toronto, Hillman would bounce around for five seasons, spending time with the Minnesota North Stars, Montreal Canadiens, Philadelphia Flyers, Los Angeles Kings, and Buffalo Sabres. Prior to the 1973-74 season, a 36-year-old Hillman would depart the NHL for the rival WHA, where he spent three seasons, the first two with the Cleveland Crusaders, and finally with the Winnipeg Jets, then of the WHA. All told, Hillman played 789 games in the NHL over 19 seasons, tallying 36 goals and 196 assists along with 565 penalty minutes. Hillman also had a brief coaching career, spending two seasons as the head coach of the Winnipeg Jets, compiling a record of 78 wins, 55 losses and eight ties in two seasons behind the bench for the Jets, still of the WHA.
Dallas Stars Expected To Interview Travis Green
The Dallas Stars are one of the many teams looking for a head coach after Rick Bowness stepped away earlier this month. While the Philadelphia Flyers, in particular, have interviewed several high-profile candidates, some other interesting names have been rumored to be involved in the Dallas’ search. Rick Tocchet and Marc Savard have been linked to the club, and another name has now emerged.
Speaking with CHEK TV, Dallas owner Tom Gaglardi admitted that they expect to talk to former Vancouver Canucks bench boss Travis Green at some point.
I think we want to look for someone who is really commited to playing a bit more skilled, play a little faster, and we need to score a little bit more without losing our defensive identity. There’s a long list of coaches we’ll be talking to.
I think Travis has proven that he deserves to be considered, and I expect we’ll be talking to him.
Green, 51, was fired as head coach of the Canucks partway through his fifth season behind the bench but continues to draw strong reviews from many executives around the league. His overall winning percentage at this point is just .478, though he did lead Vancouver to a second-round appearance in the 2020 bubble playoffs.
Before his time in the NHL, Green served as a head coach in the AHL and won a WHL championship as coach of the Portland Winterhawks, going 37-8-2 with a powerhouse squad that included several future NHL players.
Though Green may be involved, Gaglardi once again suggested that this could be a long process with many candidates as they look for someone that can take the Stars to the next level. It’s now been more than two decades since the franchise’s only Stanley Cup championship.
Stars Notes: Tocchet, Savard, Hintz
While the Rick Bowness era in Dallas officially came to a close two days ago, it could have ended far sooner. On the 32 Thoughts segment of last night’s Sportsnet broadcast of the Avalanche-Blues game, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reported that the Dallas Stars “considered a coaching change” around the All-Star break, and had “zeroed in on” former Arizona Coyotes head coach and current TNT analyst Rick Tocchet as their next bench boss. Friedman states that the two parties could not come to terms on a deal at the time, but speculates that he could be a name the team circles back to for their current vacancy.
Tocchet, 58, last coached the Arizona Coyotes in 2020-21 and has most recently been working as an analyst for Turner Sports’ NHL coverage, primarily on TNT. Tocchet also coached the Tampa Bay Lightning for two seasons from 2008-09 and 2009-10. Tocchet’s results as a head coach are mixed, with his teams only making the playoffs once, in the unique bubble situation of the 2019-20 season. But with those mixed results comes the two Stanley Cup rings Tocchet won as an assistant coach for the Pittsburgh Penguins, and there are many coaches who have difficult early tenures only to finally figure things out in a second or third job. While Tocchet never played for the Stars during his illustrious 1144-game NHL career, it seems that he may end up there as their next head coach.
Now, for some other notes regarding the Dallas Stars:
- Another former player is, like Tocchet, on the Stars’ radar for their vacant head coaching job. Marc Savard, the rookie head coach of the Windsor Spitfires who now has his team in the semifinals of the OHL playoffs, is “on Dallas’ radar,” per Marek. Savard’s Spitfires posted a 44-17-7 record this season, and his connection to prized prospect Wyatt Johnston, who tore the OHL apart this season to the tune of 124 points, could prove useful should he choose to pursue the job.
- The Stars’ offseason is a crucial one for reasons beyond just their coaching search. Star forward Jason Robertson and goaltender Jake Oettinger, the team’s playoff hero, are out of contract and are eligible for restricted free agency. The direction the team goes in terms of their extensions could dictate what the Stars are able to do in terms of adding other players. Another crucial Star, Roope Hintz, is not out of a contract but eligible for an extension thanks to there only being one season left on his current deal. Per Marek, the Stars want to get an extension “done early” and lock up Hintz along with their other core players. Given Hintz’s play these past two seasons, the Stars’ reported desire to extend him now seems wise, because his price is likely only going up as he gets more productive seasons under his belt.
Rick Bowness Will Not Return As Dallas Stars Coach
The Dallas Stars are the latest team to be on the hunt for a new head coach. They have officially announced that Rick Bowness, along with assistants Derek Laxdal, John Stevens, and Todd Nelson will not be back next season. Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News confirms goaltending coach Jeff Reese, video coach Kelly Forbes, and assistant video coach Matt Rodell will remain in their positions.
Bowness released a statement explaining the mutual parting:
After careful consideration with my wife Judy, we feel it’s best to step away and allow the organization the opportunity to pursue a different direction at the head coaching position. I’d like to thank all the passionate fans and the dedicated staff for their support and hard work in my time here. It has been an honor for me, and my family, to represent the Stars and the city of Dallas.
The 67-year-old coach has been behind an NHL bench more than any other coach in history, first becoming an assistant in 1984 with the Winnipeg Jets. His near 40-year coaching career in the NHL included stops in Winnipeg, Boston, Ottawa, New York, Phoenix, Vancouver, Tampa Bay, and Dallas, while also taking him through Sherbrooke, Moncton, and Maine in the AHL.
While his statement doesn’t confirm retirement, it does mean his time with Dallas is over, and the Stars will need to immediately begin the search for a new head coach.
After taking over during the 2019-20 season, Bowness took Dallas all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, and had an overall regular season record of 89-62-25 in parts of three seasons. The team was defeated in seven games in the first round this year.
Kevin Weekes of ESPN broke the news on Twitter.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Dallas Stars Sign Fredrik Olofsson
The Dallas Stars have convinced an interesting player to come back to North America, signing Fredrik Olofsson to a one-year, $750K contract for the 2022-23 season. Olofsson has played the last two seasons with Oskarshamn IK in the Swedish Hockey League.
Originally selected 98th overall in 2014 by the Chicago Blackhawks, Olofsson is an interesting case of a Swedish forward that spent his most important developmental years in the U.S. After playing minor hockey with the Colorado Thunderbirds, he spent parts of three seasons in the USHL and then all four years of his college eligibility at the University of Nebraska-Omaha. After he graduated, Olofsson failed to reach an agreement with the Blackhawks on an NHL contract, so his rights expired in the summer of 2019.
That’s when he returned to Sweden to play with the famed MODO program, which had been relegated to the second tier. In his first year back in Sweden he racked up 34 points in 52 games, and earned himself a chance at the SHL level. Now, after two strong years with Oskarshamn–and an appearance at the Olympics–he’s finally getting that NHL contract.
In 49 games this season, Olofsson–who is the brother of Charlotte Checkers defenseman Gustav Olofsson–scored 42 points. He’ll now get a chance to prove himself at the professional level back in North America, though there’s obviously still a long road ahead of him before he makes that kind of impact. As a waiver-exempt player, he can be sent to the minor leagues at any time, making it more difficult for him to crack the Stars roster out of camp. Still, with only two games of AHL experience under his belt, some time with the Texas Stars may not be a bad thing.
Stars Notes: Klingberg, Bowness, Injuries
As things currently stand, Dallas Stars defenseman John Klingberg is arguably the best defenseman set to be available in this summer’s free agent market. But according to Klingberg, he hopes he doesn’t get there. In today’s season-ending meeting with the media, Klingberg, who has been the subject of many trade rumors in the past, emphasized his desire to remain in Dallas, saying:
At the end of the day, I always want to stay here. We’ve been trying to find different ways to get it done. Year length, money-wise, just trying to get something we’re both happy with.
The factors that could potentially block a Klingberg return are the ones he mentioned, the cost and length of his extension. On May 7th, Stars GM Jim Nill said that he would love to keep Klingberg. But it may not be possible given the team’s cap situation and the other offers Klingberg could receive on the open market. The Stars already have Miro Heiskanen, Esa Lindell, and Ryan Suter under contract for at least the next three seasons, and with extensions for Jake Oettinger, Jason Robertson, Denis Gurianov, and Roope Hintz to consider over the next two offseasons, it’s difficult to imagine that the Stars will be able to match the kinds of offers Klingberg could receive from elsewhere. So, despite the mutual interest in a return that was communicated today, it looks as though some serious creativity will be required if Klingberg is to remain with the only NHL team he has ever known.
Now, for some other notes regarding the Stars:
- Stars head coach Rick Bowness coached this season on an expiring contract, a deal that has now ended thanks to the Stars’ defeat at the hands of the Calgary Flames. Per Matthew DeFranks of The Dallas Morning News, Bowness stated today that he would prefer a one-year contract at this stage of his career and that he may consider retirement if that’s the path he chooses to go down. Nill did praise Bowness’ work today, emphasizing that Bowness has “done a good job” in this 98-point campaign. He did also say, though, that they will need to “reassess everything.” So with both Bowness and Nill’s comments in mind, it’s certainly possible that the Stars join the multitude of teams seeking a new head coach this offseason.
- On exit days across the NHL, it is common for the numerous injuries a team’s players have been playing through to be revealed publicly for the first time. The Stars’ end-of-season press conferences were no different, and we learned today of a multitude of ailments that Stars players were battling during the season. As relayed by Saad Yousuf of The Athletic, Tyler Seguin fractured his foot in Game One of the series, Hintz strained his oblique in Game Six, and Luke Glendening had a concussion and both knee and groin issues that would have kept him out on a week-to-week basis. While it’s certain that all three players would rather be taking on the Edmonton Oilers tomorrow night, one small benefit of the Stars’ loss is that they now get to begin the recovery process in earnest.
Miro Heiskanen Joins Team Finland At World Championships
- After the conclusion of the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, several more key NHL names are off to the World Championships, including Dallas Stars defenseman Miro Heiskanen, writes The Athletic’s Saad Yousuf (link). Though many players have finished up their NHL seasons and have gone to their international teams just as Heiskanen has, his trip could be considered even more encouraging after his bout with mononucleosis earlier this season, which cost him 11 games. After returning, Heiskanen would record seven points in 18 games while averaging a considerable 25:14 time-on-ice for Dallas down the stretch, helping the team secure a playoff spot. In the seven-game series with Calgary, he would record another three points, averaging 25:35 time-on-ice. Considering his workload after battling mono, one might reasonably expect Heiskanen to be worn out, but his venture to the World Championships continues to show how well he has rebounded from the illness, an encouraging sign for Dallas not only in the short-term, but also when looking at future playoff runs.
West Notes: Second Round Schedule, Blues, Glendening
Even with so many Game 7s on the calendar this weekend, we’re starting to receive some clarity on the upcoming Second Round schedule. NHL.com writer Lou Korac reports that it “sounds like” the Second Round matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and St. Louis Blues will start Tuesday, May 17.
With that said, there’s a strong potential we could see an off day with no games on Monday. The only series that could begin on Monday without a team playing back-to-back is the matchups between the Florida Panthers and the winner of tonight’s Game 7 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning. With the league strictly using an alternating schedule of games during the First Round, it’s not outlandish to say that it’s either two games or no games on Monday night.
- Blues head coach Craig Berube said today that both defensemen Torey Krug and Marco Scandella are “maybe possibilities” to play in their upcoming series against Colorado. The Blues will already be in tough against the Western Conference-leading Avs, but aiming to win without their best defenseman seems like an impossible task. Krug had three points in three games against the Minnesota Wild in the First Round prior to his injury, while Scandella was limited to two games with a lower-body injury.
- Dallas Stars forward Luke Glendening will be a game-time decision for Game 7 after being knocked out of the game by a hit from Calgary Flames defenseman Nikita Zadorov, which earned him a hearing with the Department of Player Safety. Stars writer Mike Heika notes that while Glendening did clear concussion protocol after the hit, he suffered a lower-body injury on the play which is currently limiting him. Glendening has no points in the series with a -2 rating.
Dallas Stars Recall 11 Players
With the Texas Stars eliminated, the Dallas Stars have brought up their crew of “Black Aces,” players who will practice, take in the NHL atmosphere and stay ready for action, but usually not dress. This time, it’s 11 players coming up from the AHL:
- Oskar Back
- Riley Damiani
- Ty Dellandrea
- Rhett Gardner
- Fredrik Karlstrom
- Tanner Kero
- Riley Tufte
- Joseph Cecconi
- Alexander Petrovic
- Jerad Rosburg
- Ryan Shea
Perhaps most interesting among them are Back and Karlstrom, a pair of third-round picks that are just dipping their toes into the North American professional waters. Both players came over from the SHL this season and made an impact for Texas, scoring 25 and 29 points respectively. Each one is a big, rangy forward with experience at center ice. Karlstrom ended up playing three games for Dallas this season, but is also more than two years older than Back, who only turned 22 a few months ago.
Meanwhile, Wyatt Johnston, a player that you might expect to be with this group if possible, continues his OHL playoff series this week. The 18-year-old forward had 124 points in 68 games this season for the Windsor Spitfires and has added another 17 in nine postseason appearances.