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NHL Notes: RFA Defensemen

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As we mentioned earlier this week, there are several very talented Restricted Free Agents (RFAs) who have yet to sign contracts for next season. Of the 24 RFA defensemen who played in the NHL last season, 15 of them averaged more than 15 minutes per game (minimum 25 GP). Despite the high value of young capable defensemen (see Larsson, Adam), it is the their teams who appear to have the upper hand in negotiations.

Let’s take a look at the top five unsigned defensemen:

1. Hampus Lindholm – Anaheim Ducks – The Ducks number one defenseman, Lindholm averaged 22:00 minutes per night last season with superior possession numbers. His 28 points were 54th among defensemen, but Lindholm is still a bona fide top-pairing option. Lindholm is likely looking for a long-term contract in the $5-6MM range, similar to the Morgan Rielly ($5MM, Seth Jones ($5.4MM), and Nick Leddy ($5.5MM). The Ducks would probably prefer something lower, in the Travis Hamonic ($3.86MM), Oscar Klefbom ($4.17MM), and Justin Faulk ($4.83MM) range. Anaheim is a budget team, and is already only $8.4MM away from the cap ceiling with Lindholm and Rickard Rakell still to sign. Lindholm is not eligible for arbitration, and an offer sheet seems unlikely given the current NHL climate.

2. Tyson Barrie – Colorado Avalanche – Barrie seems to be constantly featured in trade rumors, mainly due to his high-end offensive ability (49 points last season) and coach Patrick Roy’s apparent lack of confidence in him. It doesn’t help that the Avalanche have just $8.3MM in cap space before Barrie and Mikhail Grigorenko’s arbitration hearings in late July. Barrie and his agent don’t need to look any further than teammate Eric Johnson’s $6MM salary for a starting point; Barrie outscored Johnson by 22 points in similar time-on-ice.

3. Rasmus Ristolainen – Buffalo Sabres – Ristolainen lead the Sabres in ice-time by just under 500 minutes. He was also fourth in team scoring with 41 points. He’s also extremely big at 6’4, 207 lbs and mobile. Ristolainen is already the Sabres best defenseman, and he’ll only be 22 in October. The Sabres will look to sign him long-term somewhere in the Faulk to Rielly range. The Sabres have approximately $11MM in cap space and still need to lock up Marcus Foligno and Zemgus Girgensons.

4. Jacob Trouba – Winnipeg Jets – Trouba is in an interesting situation in Winnipeg: he’s considered a future top-pairing player, and is big, mobile, and right-handed. However, he’s blocked from playing top-four minutes by fellow right-handers Dustin Byfulgien and Tyler Myers. Trouba has played the left side before, but like most players performs better on his natural side. There seems to be two options for Trouba; he can sign a bridge-deal and earn a big payday in two seasons when Mark Stuart and Toby Enstrom are free agents, or he can holdout for the big payday now. There was some talk last month about the Bruins looking at Trouba as an offer sheet candidate, but that seems to have passed. He’s not eligible for arbitration, so the ball is in Winnipeg’s court.

5. Danny DeKeyser – Detroit Red Wings – With Niklas Kronwall turning 35 last season, DeKeyser appears poised to be the next big man on the Red Wings blueline. The two defensemen lead the team in ice time, and DeKeyser will likely pass Krowall in that regard next season. The 25-year-old DeKeyser put up just 20 points last season, however Mike Green was the only defenseman who scored more. DeKeyser is scheduled for arbitration on July 28, but could very likely come to a longer agreement with the Red Wings before then.

Full Salary Arbitration Hearing Schedule

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The NHLPA released the full schedule of arbitration hearings today, which will not include Jordan Weal, after he re-signed with the Philadelphia Flyers earlier today. Teams and players can still negotiate up until the hearing, and many will reach agreements before going to arbitration. For more information on the arbitration process, check out part one of our full guide.  Here is the full schedule:

PLAYER ELECTED FILINGS

Arizona Coyotes
Michael Stone – August 4, 2016

Colorado Avalanche
Tyson Barrie – July 29, 2016
Mikhail Grigorenko – July 22, 2016

Detroit Red Wings
Danny DeKeyser – July 28, 2016

Minnesota Wild
Jordan Schroeder – July 27, 2016

Nashville Predators
Calle Jarnkrok – August 4, 2016
Petter Granberg – August 3, 2016

New York Rangers
Kevin Hayes – July 27, 2016
Chris Kreider – July 22, 2016
Dylan McIlrath – July 21, 2016
J.T. Miller – August 2, 2016

Ottawa Senators
Mike Hoffman – August 4, 2016

Philadelphia Flyers
Brandon Manning – August 2, 2016
Brayden Schenn – July 25, 2016

St. Louis Blues
Jaden Schwartz – July 20, 2016

Tampa Bay Lightning
Alex Killorn – July 20, 2016
Vladislav Namestnikov – July 29, 2016

Toronto Maple Leafs
Frank Corrado – July 26, 2016
Peter Holland – July 25, 2016
Martin Marincin – August 2, 2016

Washington Capitals
Marcus Johansson – July 20, 2016

CLUB ELECTED FILINGS

Detroit Red Wings

Petr Mrazek – July 27, 2016

Top-Line Options Remaining In Free Agency

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For many teams, free agency is a place to find a player or two to slot into your top two lines, to supplement the core you already have in place.  Edmonton went out and got Milan Lucic, to add some veteran toughness while replacing the outgoing offensive contribution of Taylor Hall. Vancouver added Loui Eriksson in a questionable move for a team who hasn’t quite decided what direction they’re headed in, and Buffalo brought on Kyle Okposo to ride shotgun with their young talent up front.

Now that the madness has died down, the market for these top-six players is extremely thin, with only a few names having established themselves there in the past.  With Shane Doan surely re-signing with the Coyotes, and Patrik Elias looking as though it’s either Devils or retirement, two of the most well known names among this group aren’t going anywhere.  Here are the other possibilities for a team to add to their top-six:

(number in parentheses represents ranking on our Top 50 UFAs)

  1. Jiri Hudler (18) – Though Hudler is now 32-years old and took a significant step back last season, he still represents one of the better second-line options available. His 46 points in 2015-16 split between the Flames and Panthers were a disappointing total for a player coming off a 31-goal, 76 point season but still ranked him right alongside players like Andrew Ladd (46 points, $38.5MM) and David Backes (45 points, $30MM).
  2. Kris Versteeg (25) – While Versteeg is probably better suited as a third-liner on a good team, he has shown the ability to move up in the lineup consistently in the past.  A three-time twenty goal scorer, Versteeg has scored at least 34 points in each of his seven healthy seasons.  He can play either wing, and brings a level of physicality to his game as well.
  3. Radim Vrbata (27) – Vrbata is clearly on the downswing of his career, having put up just 27 points and a whopping -30 mark last season.  Now 35, he’ll look to sign a cheap deal and could be a nice value signing for a team pressed against the cap. Remember, this is a guy who has over 250 career NHL goals, and is just one season removed from the second 30-goal season of his career.
  4. Alex Tanguay (33) – Though he’s now 37, Tanguay continues to produce like a second-line center, putting up another 35 point campaign despite having a much reduced role after a trade to Arizona.  For a team looking to shelter their young forwards, a veteran like Tanguay can provide some offensive punch on a cheap, short-term deal. He’ll likely break 900 points in what has been an excellent career for the former Avalanche stalwart.
  5. Brandon Pirri (NR) – Despite Pirri’s reputation as a bottom-six forward, some teams might see the former Panther as a second-line option, due to his previous goal scoring ability.  Pirri has potted 36 goals over the past two seasons, including 22 in 2014-15. The problem is that he’s racked up just 17 assists over the same time.  He was an outstanding scorer in his AHL career, and is still just 25-years old, meaning that taking a shot on him might not be the worst gamble among the remaining options.

Are Offer Sheets A Thing Of The Past?

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This summer’s restricted free agent (RFA) list is quite impressive, with nine 20-goal scorers and 13 players who scored more than 40 points last season. Forwards Sean Monahan, Johnny Gaudreau, Nikita Kucherov, Marcus Johansson, and Mike Hoffman headline the forwards; while Hampus Lindholm, Tyson Barrie, Rasmus Ristolainen, Danny DeKeyser, and Jacob Trouba are the top defensemen. Detroit’s Petr Mrazek is the only big-name RFA goalie remaining.  Most of the above players are eligible for offer sheets.

According to Elliotte Friedman, compensation for offer sheets is as follows:

  • Less than $1.239MM (average annual value of contract) – Nothing;
  • $1.239-$1.878MM – Third-round pick;
  • $1.878-$3.755MM – Second-round pick;
  • $3.755-$5.633MM – First and third-round picks;
  • $5.633-$7.510MM – First, second and third-round picks;
  • $7.510-$9.388MM – Two first, a second and third-round picks;
  • Over $9.388MM – Four first-round picks.

With this in mind, teams could target rival teams top young players, with both outcomes having their benefits to the aggressive team: either they acquire a good young player for only picks, or they mess up a rival’s salary cap by inflating the player’s salary.

The threat of an offer sheet was evident last summer, with the Blackhawks trading Brandon Saad to the Blue Jackets and the Bruins trading Dougie Hamilton to the Flames. Both players were pending RFAs and in line for a big raise before being shipped out to prevent their teams from being subjected to an offer sheet. However, this summer has been the complete opposite, with teams taking their time to sign the above-mentioned stars, apparently not overly worried about offer sheets.

Why could that be?

The last time an NHL team successfully acquired a player via an offer sheet was in 2007. Then-Oilers-GM Kevin Lowe signed Anaheim Ducks LW Dustin Penner to a 4-year, $21.5MM contract. The Ducks did not match, and the Oilers forked over their first three rounds of draft picks in 2008. Penner enjoyed varying degrees of success in three-and-a-half seasons in Edmonton before being traded to Los Angeles where he won a Stanley Cup. The Penner offer sheet is most fondly remembered by then-Ducks-GM Brian Burke and Lowe’s escalating war of words which nearly lead to a fist-fight in a rented barn in Lake Placid. Commissioner Gary Bettman was forced to have a conference call with the two GMs to get them to stop.

It’s perhaps this sort of reaction that prevents GMs from making offer sheets. Earlier this summer, ESPN and TSN reporter Pierre LeBrun quoted an unnamed GM as threatening opposing GMs with an offer sheet per year for the next ten years as retribution for a potential offer sheet. There appears to be an unspoken agreement between GMs to leave RFAs alone. There hasn’t been an offer sheet tendered since 2013 when Colorado matched Calgary’s contract with Ryan O’Reilly, saving the Flames from an embarrassing and costly mistake.

So despite several fan bases calling for offer sheets, it seems unlikely that any players will be switching sweaters this summer because of one.

Free Agent Profile: Kyle Quincey

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One of the best remaining defensive options available on the open market, Kyle Quincey is somewhat of a tragic tale.  After being selected in the fourth round by Detroit, he slowly crawled towards the NHL but could never establish himself on the Red Wings’ blueline. It took a waiver claim by Los Angeles – then a bottom-feeder of the NHL – to give him his chance, and he ran with it.

Playing in 72 games for the Kings that year, Quincey put up what would turn out to be a career-high 38 points, including a whopping 25 assists on the powerplay. Though he wasn’t considered an excellent offensive defenseman, the Kings just didn’t have many other options then – a 19-year old Drew Doughty was still learning the game, and Jack Johnson was injured for much of the season.

In July of that year, still rehabbing a herniated disc that cut short his season, Quincey was the centerpiece in a deal with the Avalanche for Ryan Smyth, a key member in the turnaround the Kings experienced a year later. In joining Colorado, Quincey – still just 24 – was on his third team already in his young career.

Colorado wouldn’t keep him around very long either, as they dealt the young blueliner back to his original Detroit Red Wings mid-season in 2011-12 (via Tampa Bay, who received a first-round pick in the transaction).  He was back with the team who wouldn’t give him a chance in the first place, and immediately saw his numbers plummet again.  He’d see the ice 36 times in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign, but only logged three points all season.

Still, the Red Wings thought of him enough to hand him a two-year, $8.5MM deal on July 1st of 2014, even though he qualified as an unrestricted free agent and could have chosen anywhere else (that would have him).

Now, with that deal expired, the Red Wings have shown no interest in keeping Quincey around, and have moved on to other options.  He now represents one of the best options left available, if you believe his early career success can be replicated in any way.

Potential Suitors

Before free agency started, we had Quincey on our Top 50 UFA list going to the Minnesota Wild, and it still seems to be a fit, though there has been no discussion about the 30-year old thus far in the media. Having given deals to both Eric Staal and Chris Stewart as they try to rebuild there value, it’s clear the team is willing to try and re-energize former stars on short-term deals.

Another possibility would be that of the Edmonton Oilers, despite already bringing in Adam Larsson and Mark Fraser. Though they look to have too many (luke-warm) bodies already, expect a few of them to be shipped out by the start of the season. If the team is committed to rebuilding a blueline that was horrible last year, Quincey could be a nice option on a bottom pairing to help some of the youngsters (Darnell Nurse, Jordan Oesterle or Brandon Davidson) develop into legitimate NHL defensemen.

Expected Contract

Needing to rebuild his value, Quincey will probably take a fairly low number on a short-term deal to prove that he’s still an effective NHL blueliner.  With advanced metrics disliking his play the last few seasons, he looks to be in the same boat as fellow unsigned free agent Kris Russell, in that teams are moving towards possession-based metrics, especially for their defense.

The thing that Quincey has going for him, is that he was once regarded positively in this manner, and with a change of scenery and correct role he could be again.  Only 30 years old, he’ll try to secure as much as Roman Polak did for the Leafs (one year, $2.25MM), but – amazingly – might not even get that.

Colorado Re-Signs Nathan MacKinnon To A Seven Year Deal

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The Avalanche have re-signed forward Nathan MacKinnon to a seven year contract, the team announced.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports the deal carries a cap hit of $6.3MM for a total of $44.1MM.  The deal buys out his remaining four restricted free agent seasons as well as three UFA years and also makes him the highest paid player on the team.

Last season, MacKinnon played in 72 games with Colorado, scoring 21 goals add 31 assists while averaging a career high 18:52 per game, second most among Avalanche forwards behind only Gabriel Landeskog (18:56).

For his career, MacKinnon has played in 218 games in his three years since being selected first overall by the Avs in 2013, scoring 59 goals while adding 94 assists.  His best season came in his rookie campaign where he collected 63 points in 82 games en route to receiving the Calder Trophy for the NHL’s best rookie.

Colorado now has their core group of forwards under contract for the next several years.  Landeskog has five years left on his deal with a cap hit just over $5.5M while Matt Duchene has three years left on his deal at $6MM per year.

The Avalanche now have just two remaining restricted free agents to re-sign, left wing/center Mikhail Grigorenko and defenseman Tyson Barrie.  They have a little over $8.3MM to spend to get those two signed, according to Cap Friendly.

The breakdown of the deal is as follows, per General Fanager:

2016-17: $5MM
2017-18: $5.75MM
2018-19: $6.75MM
2019-20: $6.75MM
2020-21: $6.15MM
2021-22: $6.85MM
2022-23: $6.85MM

MacKinnon will also be able to block a trade to ten teams beginning in 2020.

Avalanche Re-sign Calvin Pickard To Two-Year Deal

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According to a team release, the Colorado Avalanche have re-signed netminder Calvin Pickard for two years prior to the arbitration deadline.  Pickard got into 20 games at the NHL level last season, performing admirably with a 2.56 GAA and .922 save percentage.

Mike Chambers of the Denver Post gives us the financial details on the deal, which will see Pickard earn $925K in the first year, and $1.075MM in the second.

With Reto Berra dealt to the Panthers earlier this offseason, the door is wide open for Pickard to become the full-time backup for Semyon Varlamov. The duo will be earning a combined $6.925MM per season, a reasonable number for a team looking to get a handful of young RFAs under contract.

Pickard has performed well since being drafted 49th overall in 2010, and should eventually push for the starting role in Colorado. With Varlamov due to become an unrestricted free agent in three years, Colorado will see if the 24-year old Pickard has what it takes to become a number one in this league.

Avalanche Sign Fedor Tyutin To One-Year Deal

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Bob McKenzie tweets that defenseman Fedor Tyutin has signed a one-year, $2MM with the Colorado Avalanche. Mike Chambers confirmed the deal on Twitter.

Tyutin was recently bought out by the Columbus Blue Jackets. The 32-year-old was acquired by the Jackets from the Rangers in 2008 and is second all time in career games played with Columbus. In 2015-16, Tyutin had 3 points (1-2), a significant fall off from the 15 points (3-12) he registered a season prior. Until 2014-15, Tyutin was a solid contributor, registering 20+ points per season dating back to 2007-08.

While Tyutin was once considered a top-four defensemen, he’s seen his ability decline in recent years as he was passed over by younger blueliners in Columbus. With the possibility still remaining that Tyson Barrie will be moved out of town, Tyutin might be relied on heavily next season.  Francois Beauchemin, one of the team’s best performers from last season, will be 36 when the season begins and cannot continue his strong play forever.

The small $2MM hit is a clear salary cut from Tyutin’s last contract (six years, $27MM), but he’ll be payed just over $1.45MM per season by Columbus until 2020. Not a bad combination for a player who was drafted 15 years ago.

Colorado Signs Joe Colborne To Two-Year Deal

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After not receiving a qualifying offer from the Calgary Flames last week, free agent center Joe Colborne has signed with the Colorado Avalanche, according to Sportsnet’s Darren Dreger. The 19-goal scorer will earn $2.5MM per season for the next two.

With recent rumors swirling about the possibility of Colorado trading Matt Duchene, the Avalanche has added another young forward coming off a tremendous season.  After scoring 28 points in his first two full NHL seasons, Colborne exploded for 19 goals and 44 points in just 73 games the past season. While many point to his extremely high shooting percentage, Colborne generally was given solid scouting reports on his play and is expected to be able to go forward as a solid number three center.

The two-year deal doesn’t mean much risk for Colorado, and the $2.5MM won’t break the bank for a team that may not spend up to the cap this season. If Colborne can repeat his 2015-16 performance, he’ll be an exceptional bargain in a market that has already given out $600MM on day one of free agency.

Shawn Matthias Signs With Winnipeg

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According to James Mirtle of TSN, the Winnipeg Jets have signed free agent forward Shawn Matthias to a two-year contract.  Elliot Friedman reports that the deal will pay Matthias $2.125MM per season. The former Maple Leaf was traded to the Colorado Avalanche mid-season, and put up 12 goals and 28 points on the year.

Matthias, 28, has always been regarded as somewhat of a scoring winger that could play anywhere in your top nine, despite ever only scoring more than 15 goals once in his career. His $4.25MM deal comes in as the biggest of his career, despite actually taking a salary cut from $2.3MM.

He’ll join a Jets team still reeling from last season’s poor performance, and still struggling to reach a contract with RFA Jacob Trouba.  Rumors of offer sheets have swirled around the young defenseman in recent days, and he’ll be their next priority after the first day of free agency cools off.

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