- While the Bruins saw their ECHL affiliate in Atlanta opt out of participating this season, they appear to be working towards finding a short-term replacement as Fluto Shinzawa of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that they are in talks to place some players with Jacksonville (an affiliate of Winnipeg). The Icemen are one of the teams that will start the season next month so reaching an agreement with them would allow Boston to potentially send a few prospects there for some game action.
Bruins Rumors
Free Agent Profile: Sami Vatanen
Much like fellow countryman and unsigned free agents Mikael Granlund, Sami Vatanen is getting next to no attention on the open market so far this off-season. The 29-year-old defenseman, ranked No. 14 overall in PHR’s Top 50 UFA’s, is an established two-way defenseman with nearly 200 points in his eight-year NHL career, but seemingly can’t find a suitable offer in the stagnant, flat cap market.
Unfortunately for Vatanen, recency bias looms large in the free agent market. Teams are more willing to offer significant contracts to players who have impressed in their most recent outings rather than looking at their overall career. This has sunk Granlund so far and the same can be said for Vatanen on multiple fronts. First, Vatanen’s time with the Carolina Hurricanes was utterly forgettable. Traded at the deadline despite being injured, Vatanen did not see any regular season action with Carolina due to the suspension of the season. He was healthy enough to play once the postseason resumed, but played a limited role of just over 18 minutes per night in seven games (missing the final playoff game due to undisclosed reasons). Second, his past two seasons overall have not been stellar. Following four straight seasons of 67+ games played with the Anaheim Ducks, Vatanen’s health diminished over the past two years with the New Jersey Devils. He played in just 97 games total across the two campaigns and while his per-game stats both offensively and defensively held steady with his career average, his totals suffered.
Of course, the full picture of Vatanen’s career clearly displays why he ranked so high among PHR’s top free agents. He may be a couple of years removed from a relatively full season, but a healthy Vatanen in Anaheim was a perennial 30+ point player who also logged 100+ blocks and nearly 100 hits each year. Vatanen’s plus/minus was also superior before joining the struggling Devils. Even as part of what used to be a loaded Ducks defense corps, Vatanen earned his minutes and performed at a high level.
At full strength and given the opportunity, Vatanen can be a difference-maker for any team. A player who has logged 21 minutes or more per game in each of his six full NHL seasons , Vatanen knows how to carry the load of major minutes and special teams roles. He is also versatile, comfortable playing on his natural right side or on his off side. Over 82 games, Vatanen has 40-point upside and can be a disruptive force defensively as well. He has his demons as well; Vatanen is undersized, turnover prone, and can be a liability positionally in his own end. However, the total package is one of a bona fide top-four defenseman. Yet, at this point in the off-season he may not be paid as such.
Potential Suitors
Cap space aside, there are few teams in the NHL who couldn’t use a defenseman that can play both sides and contribute at both ends. Vatanen should cast a wide net of suitors, which makes the silence surrounding his name on the rumor mill all the more strange.
Taking into account the teams with ample salary cap space and need, there are a number of rebuilding clubs who could very likely be eyeing Vatanen. The Ottawa Senators and Detroit Red Wings have shown no hesitation to add free agents this off-season and could use a player like Vatanen, while the Los Angeles Kings have been very quiet but could greatly benefit from adding a player of Vatanen’s caliber to their young, inexperienced blue line. The Kings have a number of right-shot defenders, but Vatanen could still be very useful on the left side.
Of course, the problem with any of these teams is that Vatanen just escaped a rebuild in New Jersey and may want to look for a more competitive landing spot. While 2019-20 was a major disappointment for the San Jose Sharks, the team has the pieces to return to relevance this season. However, they could really use one more established veteran on the back end and Vatanen would fit the bill. There is a gap on the right side as well behind Erik Karlsson and Brent Burns, but Vatanen might be the most dangerous playing on his off side with either of those stars.
Two other teams in need of defense but who might not be an obvious fit due to shot side are the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins. Both clubs are set on the right side; Boston has Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, and a now-healthy Kevan Miller as well as NHL prospect depth and the Rangers have Jacob Trouba, Anthony DeAngelo, and Adam Fox. However, both teams have somewhat failed to address holes on the left side this off-season. Even on his off side, Vatanen would be a major upgrade to Brendan Smith and depth additions Jack Johnson and Anthony Bitetto in New York and to Matt Grzelcyk and John Moore in Boston. Both teams have considerable prospect depth on the left side, but as Stanley Cup contenders may not want to miss a chance at a player like Vatanen on a bargain deal.
Projected Contract
PHR originally expected Vatanen to sign a deal in the neighborhood of four years and $19.5MM. At this point, if Vatanen was going to land a long-term deal it would have happened by now. It seems teams want to make sure that he can stay healthy and play at his best for a full season before thinking about multiple years. Vatanen may not be restricted to just a one-year deal, as the impending Expansion Draft and its exposure requirements may make a two-year offer attractive to some, but anything beyond a two-year term seems unlikely.
As for the money, the posited $4.875MM AAV seems highly unlikely. That valuation was based on a long-term deal. Whether one year or two, Vatanen is now unfortunately facing a “show me” contract. With so many possible landing spots at or close to the salary cap ceiling, there isn’t much money to go around. If he wants to end up with a competitive club, Vatanen will be looking at a $3MM AAV or lower. If he chases the money, it still seems like the market is pointing toward a $3.5MM cap hit at best.
While Vatanen is a more well-rounded defenseman than Erik Gustafsson, the one-year, $3MM deal he signed with the Philadelphia Flyers feels like a decent expectation. If Vatanen lands a second year, perhaps he gets a total of $7MM. Either way, Vatanen is being paid for his floor when, if healthy, his ceiling is much higher. If whoever eventually signs Vatanen is lucky enough to get a healthy season (or two) out of him, he could be one of the better bargains of this free agent market.
Bruins’ Kevan Miller Expected To Start 2020-21 Healthy
It has been a rough couple of years for Kevan Miller. The Boston Bruins defenseman missed the entire 2019-20 season with a fractured kneecap, an injury that incurred setback after setback. The season prior, 2018-19, was when the kneecap injury initially occurred, causing Miller to miss the team’s regular season finale and all 24 postseason games as they reached Game Seven of the Stanley Cup Final. It was his fourth different injury of the season, as he was able to play in just 39 games. In that limited action, Miller’s play reflected someone who was never quite at 100% and paled in comparison to his previous seasons.
Miller can only hope that 2020-21 will be different and that obviously starts with his health. He tells Ty Anderson of The Sports Hub that things are trending in the right direction:
I’m doing really well. Knee is feeling great, body is feeling great. Obviously, had a lot of time to get things in order. I’m making really good progress. I’ve been skating two to three times a week. I’ve been training. I’m really, super excited to have the opportunity to play again. If we were playing right now, I wouldn’t be cleared. But come puck-drop, I definitely will be. I have no doubt in my mind I will be 100 percent by then.
If there is any reason to believe Miller’s hopeful statement, it’s because the Bruins did. Boston rushed to re-sign Miller on the first day of unrestricted free agency, despite not having seen him play since April 2019. They also didn’t just hand him a minimum-salary “show me” deal, either. Miller signed a one-year deal with incentives, yes, but it includes a $1MM base salary and a $250K roster bonus for spending just one day on the active roster. That’s essentially $1.25MM guaranteed with a maximum of $2MM with bonuses.
Boston’s other moves this off-season also reflect some faith in Miller’s comeback. Even after losing Torey Krug, the Bruins have refrained from adding to their defense corps. To this point, they have not even re-signed Zdeno Chara. On paper, this leaves the Bruins very thin on the blue line. Charlie McAvoy, Brandon Carlo, and Matt Grzelcyk are returning regulars who will play top-four roles, but the other starting jobs appeared to be up for grabs between another oft-injured veteran in John Moore and promising but unproven prospects Jeremy Lauzon, Connor Clifton, and Jakub Zboril. The team also has veteran Steven Kampfer, first-round prospect Urho Vaakanainen, and high profile college signing Jack Ahcan slated for AHL Providence. The group has some depth, but isn’t exactly loaded with the talent and experience that one would expect from a contender.
A healthy Miller would help with that. Although he has played almost exclusively in the NHL since 2013-14, Miller has just two seasons with 68+ games played, the most recent in 2017-18. Yet, in each of those seasons he averaged over 19 minutes of ice time per game, recorded nearly 20 points, logged over 150 hits and 100 blocked shots, played a key role on the penalty kill, and produced strong plus/minus and possession numbers. Granted, it has been a while since Miller has played a complete season, but his career numbers indicate that at full health he has the ceiling of a top-four shutdown defenseman, a possible Chara replacement even.
However, the caveat to any Miller excitement is that health is never guaranteed, even if he does begin the season at full strength. Miller’s resume reads like a list of all possible hockey injuries, and then some. He’s lost an even 200 regular season games to injury in his career, with ailments including the standard upper-body and lower-body injuries, concussions, and sickness but also multiple injuries to his shoulders and hands as well as a bruised larynx. Miller’s kneecap will be of most concern in the coming season, but the aggressive defenseman has shown a propensity for injury and cannot be trusted for a season-long role even if the knee holds up. A healthy Miller to begin the season is good news for the Bruins, but his presence and peak performance cannot be relied upon.
Latest On Mike Hoffman
Mike Hoffman, ranked No. 4 among PHR’s Top 50 UFA’s this off-season, is undoubtedly the best player still available on the open market. The topic of almost daily speculation, everyone wants to know where the top goal scorer on the free agent market will end up. Well, the waiting may continue for a quite a while longer. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that Hoffman and his camp are willing to be patient and wait for a deal that measures up to the veteran forward’s ability. Just how long will they wait? Potentially until after the season begins, currently projected for early January.
LeBrun notes that there are a number of potential suitors for Hoffman’s services who may “circle back” on Hoffman once they are able to place current players on Long-Term Injured Reserve. That would allow for teams to open up the cap space required to add Hoffman. Among the teams mentioned as potential landing spots in this scenario are the Boston Bruins, Edmonton Oilers, and St. Louis Blues. The Blues and Oilers do not have nearly the space to afford Hoffman currently, but will gain space with Vladimir Tarasenko and Oscar Klefbom, respectively, potentially out for the year. The Bruins have the room to sign Hoffman right now, but still need to re-sign restricted free agent forward Jake DeBrusk and may still address the left side of the blue line. However, they can open up more space and start accruing some cap savings with David Pastrnak likely to miss a month or two.
Meanwhile, LeBrun states that the Florida Panthers, Hoffman’s most recent club, and the Nashville Predators continue to call about Hoffman. It would seem that neither team has been willing to ante up to land the six-time 20-goal scorer, otherwise a deal would be done. If they were to up their offers, Hoffman could certainly sign sooner than January.
Suspiciously absent from LeBrun’s report are the Columbus Blue Jackets, who cleared cap space earlier this off-season and stated their intent to add a top free agent forward. So far, they have not done that. Columbus could be waiting until new contracts are sorted out with RFA’s Pierre-Luc Dubois and Vladislav Gavrikov, but one would think that the team will jump into the mix for Hoffman at some point if they have not done so already.
For now, Hoffman is content to wait out the market. The 30-year-old may wind up settling for a one-year deal and hitting the market again next summer, but he does not seem willing to take a discount on his next contract, regardless of the term. In an off-season that has been filled with team-friendly deals given the ramifications of the flat cap, Hoffman is hoping to be an exception.
Minor Transactions: 10/28/20
The AHL may have delayed the start of their season for several months, but that won’t stop teams from continuing to fill out their rosters, especially with the ECHL still hoping to begin in December. Meanwhile, hockey is in full swing in Europe and clubs continue to make moves, whether that be loan agreements with NHL teams, free agent signings, or trades. Keep up with all of these minor transactions from today:
- The AHL’s Chicago Wolves, now an affiliate of the Hurricanes, have added a pair of veteran minor leaguers to their roster, both of whom played for Carolina’s previous affiliate, the Charlotte Checkers last season. The team has announced that defenseman Cavan Fitzgerald and forward Colin Markison have each signed a one-year contract. Fitzgerald, 24, was a member of the San Jose Sharks prior to joining Charlotte last season, but played exclusively in the AHL on his entry-level contract. A productive two-way defenseman, Fitzgerald is a quality addition to the Chicago blue line. Markison, 28, has four NCAA seasons with the University of Vermont and five AHL seasons with Bridgeport, Texas, and Charlotte on his resume. An undersized scorer, Markinson’s production has fluctuated over the years and may depend on his role and the system in Chicago.
- The Boston Bruins had already loaned Joona Koppanen overseas to KOOVEE of the Finnish minor league Metsis, but he is now on the move to the top level. Liiga club Ilves has announced that Koppanen has now joined them on loan, a reunion with a player who grew up in the system and played for the main club in 2017-18. Koppanen, 22, is a big power forward who recorded 18 points in 43 games with the AHL’s Providence Bruins last season and already had a whopping 17 points in ten games with KOOVEE this year. Koppanen appears to be a prospect on the rise, but is buried behind a team NHL and AHL roster for the Bruins. Ilves’ stated that Koppanen’s loan is until “further notice”, which could mean the 6’5″ center might stay in Finland beyond NHL training camp.
- While the deal has yet to be finalized, former NHLer Viktor Tikhonov is on the move in the KHL. The two sides are still working out the details, but Tikhonov has been traded from Ak Bars Kazan to Spartak Moscow, according to Sport.ru. Spartak had previously pursued Tikhonov as a free agent this summer, but he opted to re-sign with Ak Bars. Tikhonov was traded to Kazan last season from SKA St. Petersburgh, where he had played for seven of the past eight seasons. The one break was in 2015-16, which he split between the Arizona Coyotes and Chicago Blackhawks. Tikhonov is no longer an elite scorer in the KHL, but his experience and two-way acumen still make him a valuable asset.
Free Agent Profile: Mikael Granlund
There are just two free agents left unsigned among the top ten of PHR’s Top 50 UFA’s. One of them, Mike Hoffman, has been a fixture on the rumor mill since the market opened, with as much discussion and speculation as anyone. The other is Mikael Granlund and things have been stunningly quiet surrounding the two-time 60+ point player.
Granlund, 28, is relatively young for a traditional UFA and has over 500 NHL games to his credit, recording over 100 career goals and over 350 career points. He is a proven asset on the power play and penalty kill, an efficient shooter, a strong possession player, and can play major minutes. Granlund may not be a household name, but he has been everything one would expect from a first-round draft pick. So why the apparent lack of interest?
It seems potential NHL suitors may be focused more on Granlund’s recent play rather than looking at the big picture. The versatile forward was traded by the Minnesota Wild to the Nashville Predators at the trade deadline in 2019. Since that time, his scoring rate dropped from .69 to .44 points per game. That is quite the decline and not what any impending free agent wants to see, but should it really be the death knell for Granlund’s prospects on the open market? In less than a season and a half in Nashville, Granlund played for two different head coaches with the Predators. He did not fit the system of former bench boss Peter Laviolette, who held the job through the end of 2018-19 and into early January of this past season. During that time, Granlund’s usage was severely limited compared to his time in Minnesota, both in overall ice time and special teams role. During that time his scoring suffered and he simply did not look like the same player. Once John Hynes took over, Granlund’s play recovered in a big way. He saw an uptick in ice time, began shooting more often and scoring more as a result, and finally won back a consistent power play role. Granlund even tied a career best in possession with a 52.4 Corsi For %.
Granlund’s play in the latter half of this past season more closely resembles his time with the Wild. A reliable top-six forward, Granlund was a pivotal player for Minnesota for over five years after taking on a full-time role at just 21. He topped 20 goals twice and 50 points three times, never finishing with less than 39 points. He also proved himself to be a durable player, missing only nine total games over his final four seasons with the team while skating over 18 minutes per game each year. He also adapted to a move from center to wing without missing a beat and still proved to be a capable pivot when needed.
In the right system, Granlund can still be the player he was in Minnesota and showed flashes of down the stretch this past year, rather than the one who struggled after moving to Nashville. That is why the lack of interest – at least based on close to nothing coming out the rumor mill – remains such a mystery.
Potential Suitors
Unfortunately for Granlund, one of the teams that could most use a player of his ability and has the cap space to sign him is none other than the Nashville Predators. Although Granlund did perform better once Hynes took over, it seems unlikely that he would be open to a return after his experience with the club was sour overall.
The Boston Bruins are also known to be looking for a forward. Granlund would have the opportunity to play with former Minnesota teammate Charlie Coyle and former Nashville teammate Craig Smith on a line that could have instant chemistry. However, the Bruins are lacking in cap space with Jake DeBrusk also in need of a new deal, so one of those two players would need to take a significant discount.
Perhaps the best fit is with the Columbus Blue Jackets. Columbus moved out considerable salary in hopes of landing at least one big time free agent forward, but so far have merely swapped Josh Anderson for Max Domi and signed aging Mikko Koivu, another former Granlund teammate. The team needs to make another splash and inject some more skill into their forward corps and Granlund makes a lot of sense.
By all accounts, the Predators, Bruins, and Blue Jackets are the finalists to sign the aforementioned Hoffman, who PHR has ranked ahead of Granlund among available UFA’s. At least one of these teams seems likely to turn to Granlund when they miss out on Hoffman, which may explain the lack of noise surrounding Granlund while the Hoffman sweepstakes continues.
If it is not one of these three, a rebuilding club like the Ottawa Senators, Detroit Red Wings, Los Angeles Kings or New Jersey Devils makes sense on a one-year “show me” deal. Don’t rule out a return to Minnesota, where Granlund found immense success, but only if the Wild can open up some space.
Projected Contract
PHR initially projected Granlund to land a four-year $20MM deal in free agency and even that $5MM AAV seemed low for a player nearly guaranteed to put up 50+ points for many years still to come. However, the flat cap has had an even bigger impact than anyone imagined on free agent deals and the odds of Granlund getting that term and value seems slim. This rings especially true after Tyler Toffoli and Evgenii Dadonov, both ranked ahead of Granlund, signed such measly deals recently. Based on those two contracts, Granlund is likely looking at an AAV closer to $4MM on a short-term deal.
While Granlund’s slip in production in 2019-20 landed him behind Dadonov and Toffoli in our rankings, he has a more proven history of NHL success than either one and would stand a better chance of making the most of a one-year deal and cashing in as a free agent again next summer. Especially given the forthcoming Expansions Draft next summer, a one-year deal has added value for interested teams. Whether he ultimately signs with a playoff hopeful or a rebuild, a one-year, $4MM contract sounds about right for Granlund at this point – and stands to be an incredible bargain for whoever signs it.
Zach Senyshyn Re-Signs With Boston Bruins
The Boston Bruins have signed restricted free agent forward Zachary Senyshyn to a one-year, two-way contract worth $700K at the NHL level. Senyshyn was not eligible for arbitration.
Senyshyn, 23, has still yet to establish himself as a true NHL option for the Bruins, five years removed from being the 15th overall selection. In 2019-20 he played in four games for Boston, recording two assists while averaging a little over eight minutes a night. Even his minor league numbers haven’t grown to the level that was expected, with Senyshyn scoring just seven goals and 16 points in 42 games for Providence this year.
The idea of the former Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds star becoming an impact top-six winger for the Bruins is pretty much dead at this point, but perhaps he can still carve out a role at the NHL level. The team brought in Craig Smith to give them another option on the right side but will likely be missing David Pastrnak for the beginning of the season after recent surgery.
Even without much production, it wasn’t time for the Bruins to give up on the young forward. He’ll join a growing group of prospects that will battle for roster spots at training camp (whenever that is) and have to wait patiently for his next opportunity.
Boston Bruins Re-Sign Karson Kuhlman
The Boston Bruins have re-signed depth forward Karson Kuhlman to a two-year contract worth an average of $725K at the NHL level. Kuhlman’s deal will be two-way in 2020-21 and one-way in 2021-22.
The 25-year-old forward was an undrafted free agent signing out of the University of Minnesota-Duluth in 2018 and has played 49 games for the Bruins over the last two seasons, including playoffs. In that time he’s contributed just 14 points but is an energy option that can be inserted into the lineup without hurting you.
In fact, Kuhlman has posted strong possession numbers whenever he does get a chance to play and saw a little bit of time on the penalty kill this year. It will be hard for him to ever really secure a full-time spot in the lineup without an injury to someone else on the roster, but as an extra forward that is still waiver-exempt, he’s a nice option.
Atlantic Notes: Chara, Maple Leafs, Danault
With a big four-year extension for Boston Bruins defenseman Matt Grzelcyk, the Bruins continue to work on their defense after the departure of Torey Krug. Of course, much of that work relies on a decision by veteran Zdeno Chara, who is still considering what he is going to do for the 2020-21 season.
Boston Hockey Now’s Joe Haggerty writes that Bruins general manager Don Sweeney said that the team can do nothing, but wait to hear from Chara about what his offseason plans are.
“We have communicated consistently with Zdeno and [his agent] Matt Keator,” said Sweeney. “We’re just waiting for him to initiate what he’d like to do moving forward. I feel very comfortable allowing [the decision-making process] to take the necessary time and let Zdeno make his own decisions along that route.”
Of course, Keator did say that Chara has received multiple inquiries from other teams and the veteran is considering all options, according to The Athletic’s Fluto Shinzawa (subscription required), which isn’t good for Boston who will need the 6-foot-9, 250-pounder to help stabilize their defense after losing Krug to St. Louis more than a week ago and lack the financial abilities to bring in a solid replacement.
- In a conference call with reporters as well as NHL.com’s Mike Zeisberger, Toronto Maple Leafs general manager Kyle Dubas said that he doesn’t foresee the team making any more roster moves, which includes adding more players or having to move a player out. The GM said the Maple Leafs will now focus on signing their own restricted free agents with next week’s arbitration case of Ilya Mikheyev on tap next, followed by focusing on working out a deal with defenseman Travis Dermott.
- The Athletic’s Arpon Basu (subscription required) writes that Montreal Canadiens general manager Marc Bergevin has now signed defenseman Jeff Petry and forward Brendan Gallagher to long-term deals. He also managed to swap forwards Max Domi and Josh Anderson, signing the latter to long-term deal as well. When asked what his next task would be, Bergevin replied that he was thinking about going on vacation, sounding like his work this offseason is finished. Basu writes that can’t be good news for center Phillip Danault, who is on his last year of a three-year, $9.25MM contract and has said he would like to stay long-term as long as his role on the team is guaranteed. The 27-year-old has posted 25 goals and 100 points combined over the last two seasons, but with young centers Jesperi Kotkaniemi and Nick Suzuki ready to step into more significant roles in the near future, there may not be a big role remaining for Danault.
Bruins Re-Sign Matt Grzelcyk
The Bruins have taken care of one of their remaining restricted free agents, announcing that they’ve re-signed defenseman Matt Grzelcyk to a four-year, $14.75MM contract, avoiding a salary arbitration hearing that was scheduled for Tuesday. The deal means he more than doubles the $1.4MM he made on his most recent deal. Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic reports (Twitter link) that the deal breaks down as follows:
2020-21: $2.25MM
2021-22: $4MM
2022-23: $4.25MM
2023-24: $4.25MM
The 26-year-old has been a fixture on Boston’s back end in recent years, albeit in a more limited capacity. Last season, Grzelcyk had a career-high four goals and 17 assists in 68 games for the Bruins while averaging a little over 18 minutes per game in playing time. While he was limited to just a single assist in 12 postseason contests, his playing time jumped to nearly 20 minutes a night.
While it seems unlikely that Grzelcyk will be able to produce as much as he did at the college level (including one year with Charlie McAvoy), it’s possible that there is still another level he can get to offensively. With Torey Krug gone to St. Louis in free agency and Zdeno Chara’s fate uncertain for next season, Grzelcyk stands to be in line for a bigger role for 2020-21 as things stand with John Moore being the only other NHL regular on the left side of their back end. This deal clearly recognizes that potential while buying out three years of UFA eligibility.
With the move, Boston has roughly $6.5MM to $7.5MM in remaining cap space depending on various projections of filling out their roster. However, they still have a restricted free agent of note to re-sign in winger Jake DeBrusk which should take up a good chunk of that amount.
Joe Haggerty of Boston Hockey Now was first to report that the two sides were close to an agreement.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.