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Expansion Draft Issues At The Trade Deadline: Defense and Goaltending

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This trade season is one like never before. The addition of the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-18 and the Expansion Draft that goes along with it add a whole other layer to trade-making this year. With each and every transaction, the expansion draft protection formula can change. Even in 2000, when the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets were welcomed into the league, the expansion rules were not a strict and general managers did not have to be as paranoid about their moves. This time around, everything is different. What does it all mean? For fans, there is a real possibility that this could be the quietest Trade Deadline in recent memory. Buyers interested in impending free agent rentals may not have to worry about the draft implications, but the sellers potentially taking back roster players with term certainly do. Trading is hard enough, especially in a season with very few teams significantly out of the playoff race, and expansion will only increase those barriers. Luckily, there are several teams that need to make moves prior to the deadline or they could risk being in very sticky situations when the Knights get ready to make their selections. With teams like the Minnesota Wild, Pittsburgh Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Anaheim Ducks, who have so much talented, veteran depth at multiple positions, there is really not much that they can do; they’re going to lose a good player. For others, a sensible contract extension can solve all of their problems. However, for these teams, making a trade before it’s too late may be exactly what they need:

Calgary Flames – Defensemen

As currently constituted, the Flames would be forced to expose a great defenseman in the Expansion Draft. Mark Giordano, T.J. Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton are clearly the three blue liners that Calgary wants to protect from exposure. However, they are also the only three that meet the “40/70” mandate of having a player with term on their contact who has played 40 games this season or 70 games combined over the last two seasons. Each team is required to expose one defenseman that meets these qualifications, but the Flames don’t have one outside of their core three. Both Dennis Wideman and Deryk Engelland meet the game totals, but are unrestricted free agents. Jyrki Jokipakka is an unrestricted free agent. No other defenseman in the entire organization who has played more than two pro seasons is signed beyond 2017. The Flames only option right now, assuming they have no interest in bringing Wideman or Engelland back, is to extend Jokipakka for the purpose of making him available by the June 21st draft date. However, if they want to take their time negotiating a new deal with the centerpiece of their return for Kris Russell, or if they’re worried that he is more likely to be selected with a new deal than as a free agent, the Flames must look to strike a deal for a qualifying defenseman. They will need blue line help this off-season anyway, so look for Calgary to be major players in quality veteran defenseman with term, should any hit the market.

Carolina Hurricanes – Defensemen

Carolina is in a similar position to Calgary, but don’t even have a choice of three defensemen to choose from if they don’t make a change; the Hurricanes would have to expose (and would surely lose) All-Star Justin Faulk. That, of course, won’t happen, but the ’Canes must make a move to avoid it. Carolina’s highly-touted young defense is actually what creates this problem. Jaccob Slavin, Brett Pesce, and Noah Hanifin are all amazingly still in their second pro seasons and exempt from selection. Ron Hainsey is an unrestricted free agent and a prime trade candidate. That leaves three others who could possibly fit the bill for GM Ron Francis. 23-year-old Ryan Murphy has a year left on his contract, but remains 24 games shy of reaching the 40/70 benchmark. Would the Hurricanes play Murphy, who has all but been cast aside in Carolina, for the remainder of the season just to expose him? The other option is to extend an impending free agent like Klas Dahlbeck, who otherwise qualifies, or Matt Tennyson, who needs just ten more games to reach the mark. Neither is likely to be selected by Vegas, but would at least cover the requirement for the ’Canes. The question then becomes whether the team is willing to extend either one when they are so loaded with young talent on the blue line that they would rather not have blocked by mediocre players. Acquiring a qualifying defenseman who presents an upgrade over the pair, but not a surefire expansion pick may make more sense.

Philadelphia Flyers – Goalies

As has been touched on before, teams with goalie qualification problems have been easy to spot this season. Goaltenders don’t have a games-played mandate for exposure, but must have term on their contracts. Going into this season, the Montreal Canadiens had no protection for Carey Price, but fixed that by giving backup Al Montoya an extension, and the Anaheim Ducks had plenty of goalies, but none that qualified other than John Gibson until they extended AHL keeper Dustin Tokarski. The Minnesota Wild decided to follow in the Ducks’ footsteps recently, protecting Devan Dubnyk by extending Alex Stalock rather than backup Darcy Kuemper. That leaves just one team, the Flyers, with goalie problems (what else is new). Their situation is unique though, as Philadelphia is not looking to protect a starter by re-signing or acquiring a backup. Instead, they need to protect prospect Anthony Stolarz. With Steve Mason and Michal Neuvirth set to become unrestricted free agents, Stolarz is the only keeper in the system who qualifies for exposure, and Vegas would surely jump on the promising young goaltender. However, neither Mason nor Neuvirth have played nearly well enough this season to warrant an extension of starter-level money, especially when both would be unlikely to be selected in the draft. The Flyers have few options though, as they don’t want to spend substantial trade capital on a new starter for the future, only to watch him be selected by the Knights. The Flyers are likely scouring the NHL for backup-caliber goalies with term on their contracts and on teams who have the flexibility to move them. It’s a narrow search, and if no deal can be made, Philadelphia will have little choice but to overpay to bring back one of their underwhelming NHL keepers.

Stay tuned next week for Part II: Forwards, featuring six more troubled teams

Predators Activate Josi From IR

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After demoting frustrated forward Mike Ribeiro today, the Nashville Predators used the roster spot to bring a much better personality back into the lineup: star defenseman Roman Josi. Josi was activated from the injured reserve after missing the team’s last nine games. He had originally sustained the upper body injury after taking a big hit from Bruins rookie Anton Blidh back on January 12th. Josi left the game and did not return and was swiftly placed on IR the next day.

Boosted by the return of P.K. Subban, the Predators were able to survive Josi’s absence, going 6-2-1 while he was sidelined. However, they are now back to full strength and continue to fight for position in the Central Division with Josi leading the charge. Although he got off to a slow start this season (so did the entire team), even before the injury, with just 22 points through 42 games, Josi is as dynamic as any defenseman in the NHL. Last season, Josi trailed only superstars Erik Karlsson, Brent Burns, and Kris Letang in defensive scoring with 61 points. He is one of only a handful of defensemen with 40 or more points in each of the last three seasons. In a system specifically designed to run its offense through its defense, Josi is capable of putting up monster numbers, especially when he is surrounded by other possession players like Subban, Mattias Ekholm, and Ryan Ellis. Josi should easily reach 40 points again if he can stay healthy through the end of the season.

However, his focus will not be on scoring stats but on leading the defensive corps and the team overall in their quest for the Stanley Cup this season. A dark horse pick by many before the season, the Predators had a miserable start to 2016-17, but have begun to stack up wins and pull away from the Western Conference’s fringe playoff teams. Benefiting from the collapse of the St. Louis Blues, Nashville now sits in third in the Central with a three point lead on the Blues and more points and games in hand on both the Winnipeg Jets and Dallas Stars. If the Predators keep winning, they can turn their focus toward chasing the Chicago Blackhawks, who are nine points up, but two games ahead as well. With Josi back in the fold and the team currently rolling on all cylinders, it’s not impossible for Nashville to get home-ice advantage on the ’Hawks by playoff time.

Minor Transactions: 2/4/2017

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It’s a busy blue line in Edmonton, as the Oilers announced today that they have recalled two defenseman, Griffin Reinhart and Jordan Oesterle. The move comes on the heels of rookie defenseman Matt Benning (and forward Jujhar Khaira) being placed on injured reserve. The call-up adds two more bodies to the back end, which already has fixtures in Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, and Kris Russell, has Brandon Davidson and Eric Gryba back and healthy, and is awaiting the return of Darnell Nurse. 

If he’s in the lineup tomorrow against the Montreal Canadiens, it will be the first NHL game of the season for Reinhart, who failed to make much of an impact in 2015-16 with just one assist and a -6 rating in 29 games with the Oilers. However, Edmonton traded first and second rounders to acquire the young defenseman, so they won’t give up on him that easy, even if he does prove to be a sunk cost. Reinhart has five goals and six assists in 29 games with the AHL’s Bakersfield Condors this season. However, he’s been outshined by Oesterle, who has 3 goals and 15 assists to lead Condors defensemen in scoring. If Oesterle plays tomorrow, it will also be his first appearance in 2016-17. The 24-year-old played in 23 games with Edmonton over the past two seasons, recording six assists. Even with Benning on IR, don’t expect both Reinhart and Oesterle to remain with the Oilers for too long.

Elsewhere across the league:

  • After clearing waivers, Mike Ribeiro has been sent down to the AHL by the Nashville Predators. Although he is clearly not in high demand having gone untouched by 29 teams, Ribeiro’s trip to the Milwaukee Admirals of the AHL does not signal the end of his NHL season. If Nashville is willing to hold on to some salary, there is still a good chance Ribeiro gets his trade wish granted by March 1st.
  • Cal O’Reilly also cleared waivers recently and has now been demoted to the AHL’s Rochester Americans. In a corresponding move, the Buffalo Sabres have recalled Justin Bailey, who is expected to take the place of the injured William Carrier while he remains sidelined. The 21-year-old Bailey has 19 goals and 10 assists in 39 AHL games this season.
  • The Columbus Blue Jackets have recalled Markus Hannikainen on an emergency basis from the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters. There is no word on what prompted the quick call-up or whether the young winger will suit up for the Jackets’ game against the New Jersey Devils tonight. Hannikainen scored his first career NHL goal in his last game, a win over the Carolina Hurricanes on January 21st.
  • Anaheim has called up defenseman Brandon Montour from the San Diego Gulls of the AHL. The Ducks have been swapping Montour and Shea Theodore back and forth from the AHL seemingly all season long. The former UMass blue liner has been outstanding with the Gulls, scoring 30 points in just 34 games, but is still looking for his first NHL point through five games with the Ducks.

Trade Candidates: Cody Franson

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If the summer of 2015 taught hockey fans anything, it was that there is no league-wide consensus about Cody Franson. The defenseman was expected to be one of the top blue liners on the market, but instead of jumping on a big offer early in free agency, his negotiations dragged on into September before he finally agreed to a deal with the Buffalo Sabres.

Two years later, Franson’s production has fallen off at both ends of the ice and his value is even more unpredictable.  In need of a change of scenery, Franson is not re-signing with Buffalo this summer, so if the Sabres’ playoff hopes continue slip out of reach, they should be more than willing to move the big defenseman.

Contract

Franson is in the final year of a two-year, $6.65MM deal and will be an unrestricted free agent at season’s end. At the trade deadline, Franson’s $3.325MM cap hit will be down to just over $1MM.

2016-17

Franson’s time in Buffalo has not gone according to plan. Reports in the summer of 2015 were that Franson was weighing offers between affordable, short-term deals with contenders or more money and more term from rebuilding teams. What he ended up with was a short-term deal, likely for the most money on the table though, with a rebuild. The lack of talent around him in Buffalo has certainly stifled Franson’s output, but most of the blame lies with him and not making the most of his situation. The 2015-16 season was the worst of Franson’s career. Although injuries limited him to just 59 games, Franson still scored less than half of the 36 points he had registered in 78 games with the Toronto Maple Leafs and Nashville Predators the year before. He also saw a massive drop-off in his defensive stats like hits and blocks. Buffalo fans were hoping for a rebound year when Franson returned to full health in 2016-17, but so far it has not come. Franson is on pace for just 25 points, which would be the lowest full-season total of his career. It would even be less than the 29 points he scored in 45 games in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 season. He’s also way off pace from matching the dominant defensive numbers he put up in Toronto. Add in that these shortcoming are also going along with almost 19 minutes of ice time per game, the third highest average of his career, and clearly something is off with Franson.

Season Stats

47 games: 3 goals, 12 assists, 15 points, -1, 62 hits, 43 blocks, 18:46 ATOI

Potential Suitors

The first team that should jump out as a prime candidate is the Toronto Maple Leafs. A return to Toronto, where Franson had the best years of his career, could be exactly what he needs. When the Leafs dealt him away at the 2015 trade deadline, they were in full rebuild mode. However, they’ve turned it around faster than anyone could have imagined and are now looking for affordable help in trying to reach the playoffs. At a bargain price, Franson would be great value for Toronto as a player comfortable with the city and with several former teammates. Even in the midst of a down year, Franson would present an upgrade over any of Matt Hunwick, Roman Polak, Connor Carrick or the recently-claimed Alexey Marchenko.

The Los Angeles Kings are another club that could really use Franson’s services. The team has had to make due with the likes of Kevin Gravel and the recently-waived Tom Gilbert all season long on their bottom pair, but they are not a lock to make the playoffs and an upgrade on defense would go along way. As of now, Drew Doughty is the only right-handed defenseman on the roster. The Kings would gladly take Franson to add some depth and balance on the back end.

Other contenders that could be interested in Franson for the right price and purely as some added depth include Eastern Conference powerhouses like the Pittsburgh Penguins, Columbus Blue Jackets, and New York Rangers, but they might have to match the offers of teams in more dire need. The Sabres’ playoff chances are slim at this point, and they won’t be afraid to trade Franson to the division-rival Maple Leafs if that is who makes the best offer.

Likelihood Of A Trade

If a market develops, which it likely will, Franson will almost definitely be moved. He has been a disappointment with the Sabres and a rebuilding team will take any help they can get by moving out veterans with expiring contracts. It’s possible that Franson’s struggles will cause teams to shy away from acquiring him, but at just 29-years-old and with very good numbers in his past, the big blue liner has potential. Buffalo will not ask for much, but some team will pay to bring in what amounts to a very good depth defenseman for the stretch run. Still capable of solid two-way play with offensive upside in the right system, Franson is more valuable than his numbers indicate.

 

 

 

Trade Candidates: Teddy Purcell

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When Teddy Purcell was putting up 51 points in Tampa Bay in 2010-11 and leading the team with 17 points in 18 playoff games, many though that the Lightning had found a hidden gem. When he backed it up with 65 points in 2011-12 and then scored at the same pace in the lockout-shortened 2012-13 campaign, they believed he was a star-in-the-making. The past three years, Purcell has put up back-to-back-to-back solid seasons despite moving from Tampa to the Edmonton Oilers to the Florida Panthers. Yet, in 2016-17 Purcell has played in just 12 NHL games with the Los Angeles Kings. Something doesn’t add up, and both Purcell and the Kings would like to end their disastrous partnership as soon as possible.

Contract

Purcell was smart to quickly accept the Kings’ one-year, $1.6MM deal on July 1st of last year, as many similar players waited and became victims of a stagnant market, waiting until much later in the summer to sign even cheaper deals. However, the hit proved to be too much for the rest of the league, as Purcell cleared waivers in December. At the deadline, Purcell will be an impending free agent rental with an accumulated cap hit of under $200K.

2016-17

After signing Purcell, who they had originally signed out of the University of Maine back in 2007, to a reasonable deal to add some depth to their forward corps, L.A. quickly fell out of love with their free agent acquisition. The 31-year-old right winger had just two assists through 12 games and had been outplayed by tryout signee Devin Setoguchi and depth players like Trevor Lewis and Nic Dowd. He had dropped down to a spot on the third line, but even there the Kings had options they preferred more. The L.A. homecoming ended as quickly as it had started, as Purcell was placed on waivers in early December, and with many teams across the league tight against the salary cap ceiling, the former 41-assist play-maker extraordinaire cleared and was sent to the AHL. Yet, after the same amount of time with the Ontario Reign as he had played with the Kings, Reign coach Mike Stothers came out and said that Purcell was simply “too good for this league.” At the time,  Purcell had 14 points in his first 12 games. As of now, he has maintained a point-per-game pace with 22 in 22 and has boosted the Reign to the top of the Pacific Division. Still a valuable NHL asset, Purcell does not belong in the AHL and should be back in the big leagues by the end of the season.

Season Stats

12 NHL games: 0 goals, 2 assists, 2 points, even, 10 shots, 12:54 ATOI.

22 AHL games: 7 goals, 15 assists, 22 points, +6, 50 shots, 19:38 ATOI.

Potential Suitors

Purcell is attractive to two types of teams as the Trade Deadline creeps closer: those who are only fringe playoff teams and those who are contenders, but just need depth and not a high-end contributor. Purcell is affordable and very low-risk/high-reward. The last thing the Kings would want is to send Purcell down to the AHL all year only to trade him to a Pacific rival and have it come back to bite them, so a divisional move seems unlikely. However, several other teams could be in the mix.

The Boston Bruins are not in any position to go wasting assets on big playoff rentals this season, as they currently are fighting just to qualify. The team has been playing better of late though, partly due to finally finding some good balance in their forward lines. One hole that remains is the need for an offensive weapon on the third line to help out Ryan Spooner and Matt Beleskey. While the team (second in shots per game, 23rd in goals per game) could use a finisher more than a passer like Purcell, the cost of a Thomas Vanek or Radim Vrbata may be too high. Purcell could help the team out and at a cheap price. The Bruins have enough cap space to add he and a more goal-prone player if they so choose. Count the New York Islanders as another team who could use Purcell to balance out their forward lines. The team has just recently slipped into the playoff conversation, but could definitely use some depth, particularly on the right side where Ryan Strome presents the only righty option in the top-nine. The Toronto Maple Leafs are another teams that could have interest in Purcell. Many have opined that the Leafs should not sell off any young assets this year, but trading for Purcell to help out would likely cost very little and would add a veteran presence, playoff experience, and a great play-maker for their young scorers.

The other team to (always) look out for is the Chicago Blackhawks. As they do seemingly ever year, the GM Stan Bowman and the ’Hawks bring in some washed-up veteran or young no-name who then performs exceedingly well with the likes of Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. Purcell fits the bill as a player who has always performed his best when surrounded by great talent. Chicago has little cap room and is running out of trade chips, which makes the affordable Purcell a great fit. It also helps that they have struck deals with the King for two years in a row, swapping Michael Latta and Cameron Schilling last month and Rob Scuderi and Christian Ehrhoff around this time last year. If the Blackhawks land Purcell and he is a point-per-game player down the stretch or in the playoffs, would anyone really be surprised?

Likelihood Of A Trade

The Los Angeles Kings still stand a good chance of making the playoffs this year, but if they had any interest in bringing Purcell back up to help them get there, they would have done so already. The only good that Purcell can do for them now is in a trade return. Similarly, Purcell will go just about anywhere to get back into an NHL game and show what he can do before he hits the free agent market again this summer. With both sides in agreement that Purcell should be moved, the only other factor is the market.

If there are teams who still believe that Purcell can play at a high level, and his career numbers up until his limited showing in L.A. this year do little to dissuade that notion, then there is a very high likelihood that he will be moved. The Kings cannot possibly ask for much, having already placed him on waivers this season, nor would anyone be willing to pay much for a guy who hasn’t skated in an NHL game since early December. However, Purcell is hardly even an asset to L.A. as an impending free agent who is playing for their farm team, and it seems likely that they will take whatever they can get for him.

On the other hand, if teams are disillusioned by Purcell’s slow start this season and inability to earn a call-up to the Kings all season long, a market may never form for his services. That is the only way that Purcell doesn’t get traded by March 1st.

Jason Spezza Injured, No Timeline For Return

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The injury bug has run rampant in Dallas this season, and now another top-six forward has been claimed. According to head coach Lindy Ruff, Jason Spezza is set to miss significant time due to an injury sustained last night. Spezza was the recipient of a big open-ice hit from the Winnipeg Jets’ Adam Lowry in the contest. Spezza took the shot in the right shoulder and then twisted, landing hard on his left hip and elbow. Likely trying to avoid frightening fans with yet another nightmare diagnosis, the Stars have not identified what Spezza’s injury is, nor what the timeline for his return might be. Ruff indicated that it would be “probably more than days”, but that seems likely to be an understatement.

Spezza has already missed some time due to injury earlier this season, when he was out for a few games with a lower-body issue. Stars beat writer Mark Stepenski doesn’t think that will have an effect though, as he reports that it is an upper-body injury this time around. However, he also states that Ruff believes the injury could keep Spezza out for a week or two or even longer, the uncertainty of which should remind fans of Spezza’s long history with back problems. While Spezza could have just as easily have injured his right shoulder or left elbow on the fall, the twisting motion with which he took the check and hit the ice could have re-aggravated his long-time back condition.  The scoring center has dealt with lingering issues throughout his career, which came to head in 2012-13 when he played in only 5 games with the Ottawa Senators, missing the rest of the season due to back surgery.

Spezza’s absence from the Dallas lineup will substantially hinder their attempts to get back into the playoff picture. The team has already been without Mattias Janmark for the entire season and will not get him back this year. Similarly, Ales Hemsky has missed all but one game in 2016-17 as well and there is little hope of a return. The Stars are also without defensemen Johnny Oduya, who missed ten games earlier in the year as well as the past six, and Jamie Oleksiak, who has now missed ten straight. Overall, Dallas has had disproportionate injury struggles this season, having lost the fourth-most man-minutes to injury halfway through the season, and are only adding to that total in the second half. Luckily, Patrick Sharp, Jiri Hudler, and Cody Eakin, all of whom have missed significant time this season, are back and healthy and will be able to help pick up the slack if Spezza does end being out for an extended period. However, it just doesn’t seem like this is the Stars’ year, as they faced an uphill battle  to make the playoffs even with Spezza, as they sit three points behind the St. Louis Blues for the final wildcard spot in the Western Conference, with the Calgary Flames, Winnipeg Jets, and Vancouver Canucks all blocking their path to the postseason. That task now seems daunting with arguably their third-best player out of the lineup and no timeline for his return.

AHL Announces Realignment For 2017-18

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The AHL is set to make some changes to its league structure yet again. The AHL’s president and CEO, Dave Andrews, made the annual AHL All-Star League Address this morning, and NHL.com’s Patrick Williams was on hand to relay the news. While Andrews commented on many issues across the minor league, the main announcement was that of divisional realignment coming before next season, to accommodate the movement of existing teams. The two new teams, of course, are re-located Canadian squads. The Montreal Canadiens’ affiliate, the St. John’s Ice Caps, are moving to Laval, Quebec to become the Laval Rocket. The Ottawa Senators are moving their affiliate, the Binghamton Senators of upstate New York, across the border to Belleville, Ontario.

The realignment plans come as somewhat of a surprise to many. The AHL has gone through massive alignment in recent years, with the move of many franchises to the west coast, including the rookie franchise Tuscon Roadrunners, but appeared to have found a good balance. The league is currently structured as the inverse of the NHL, with eight teams in each Western Conference division and seven teams in each Eastern Conference division, and neither of next year’s moves appears to be in conflict with that formula. While the Laval Rocket will no longer be as far east as St. John’s, Newfoundland, they will still be the most northeastern team in the league and were expected to remain in the North Division with fellow Canadian team, the Toronto Maple Leafs’ Marlies franchise. Similarly, the move from Binghamton to Belleville is not exactly a geographic jump, and the AHL Senators were also expected to remain in the North Division. The AHL has not announced the specifics of the 2017-18 realignment just yet, but if it is prompted by these two moves, it is difficult at this point to pinpoint what changes may be made.

The AHL also has to consider future changes when realigning for next season.  With the Ottawa Senators moving their team out of Binghamton to fill the void left by the OHL’s Belleville Bulls, the New Jersey Devils have jumped at a similar opportunity, announcing that the Albany Devils will replace the Senators in Binghamton, beginning in 2018-19. There is also the possibility that a 31st AHL franchise will be added as soon as next year to serve as the Vegas Golden Knight’s affiliate, and will certainly be added at some point in the next few years. Andrews briefly touched on the topic of new AHL locations, stating that the AHL will not be going to Kansas City, Missouri next year, nor have they had any talks with the abandoned Nassau Coliseum about putting a team in the Islanders’ old home. Andrews did confirm that talks of new locations are exclusive only to a new franchise right now, as there have been no discussions about moving the Vancouver Canucks’ affiliate, the Utica Comets, from New York to the west coast and the Carolina Hurricanes’ Charlotte Checkers franchise will not be moving either, but will potentially transfer to the Eastern Conference as part of realignment to better accommodate their coastal location. With many questions still yet to be answered regarding the structure of the AHL for next year and beyond, expect more news to continue coming out over the course of the next few months.

Minor Transactions: 1/30/2017

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The All-Star festivities are over and teams are back to reloading their rosters before game action starts up again tomorrow. The Washington Capitals were the first to get back at it today, announcing early this morning that they have recalled forward Chandler Stephenson and defenseman Christian Djoos. Stephenson has made multiple trips to Washington this season and made his season debut on his most recent stint. The 22-year-old center, a 2012 third-round pick, has yet to record his first NHL point through 11 career games, but has 24 points in 41 games for the AHL’s Hershey Bears so far this season. Stephenson was demoted on Friday, only to be recalled today, seemingly to get into a game and for some minor cap savings for the Caps. Meanwhile, this is the first career promotion for Djoos. The small, speedy Swedish defenseman has impressed at the AHL level this season with great skating and puck-moving ability to go along with a solid defensive game. However, whether or not he makes his NHL debut anytime soon depends on the status of John Carlson. Djoos’ call-up is likely for insurance in case Carlson is not ready to return from injury just yet, but all signs point to the Capitals’ #1 defenseman being ready to go.

Elsewhere around the league:

  • The Boston Bruins continue to flip-flop their backup goaltenders. After recalling Anton Khudobin and sending rookie Zane McIntyre back down to the AHL’s Providence Bruins on Friday, the Bruins then recalled McIntyre again, after he got the start for the P-Bruins, and sent Khudobin down to play for the team on Saturday night. Well, the Bruins then swapped the keepers again yesterday, allowing McIntyre, the AHL’s best goalie so far this season, to take part in All-Star festivities last night and today.
  • Another team undoing a recent All-Star break move is the New Jersey Devils, who today announced the recalls of Steven Santini, Karl Stollery, and Seth Helgeson. The defensive trio was re-assigned on Friday to give them some AHL play time with the Albany Devils this weekend. Santini and Stollery have been lining up as the team’s third defensive pair of late, with Andy Greene and John Moore still sidelined with injuries.
  • The St. Louis Blue also made a quick switch regarding Ivan Barbashev. The AHL All-Star had been recalled last week after the injury to Kyle Brodziak, but was returned to the AHL’s Chicago Wolves on Friday to play in games over the weekend. However, Barbashev has now been called up again, without participating in any AHL All-Star festivities. Barbashev has 19 goals and 18 assists in 45 AHL games in 2016-17, and is expected to get a long look in St. Louis while Brodziak remains out.
  • The Minnesota Wild have promoted defenseman Mike Reilly from the Iowa Wild of the AHL. The Western Conference leaders are about to embark on a four-game road trip through western Canada, and appear to be bringing Reilly along as an extra man with Jonas Brodin still not ready to return to the lineup.
  • The Montreal Canadiens have placed defenseman Zach Redmond on waivers today, according to TVA’s Renaud Lavoie. After trading for Nikita Nesterov, Redmond has become expendable to the Habs. While they don’t have such deep defensive depth that they don’t care if he is claimed or not, Montreal feels comfortable subjecting him to waivers in order to send him to the AHL with the right side of their blue line set with Shea Weber, Jeff Petry, and now Nesterov. The 28-year-old defenseman is in his first season with Montreal, and has five assists though 16 games with the team thus far.
  • Tampa Bay is bringing back Jake Dotchin, as the the Tampa Bay Times’ Joe Smith reports that the rookie defenseman has been recalled by the Lightning. Dotchin received his first career call-up last week and played in three games with the Bolts prior to the All-Star Break. He then played in a couple contests with the AHL’s Syracuse Crunch this weekend before now heading back to the Gulf Coast. Tampa Bay’s roster is very fluid right now, and if Dotchin is impressing the team in his limited bottom pair play, they have no reason to demote him any time soon.

More to come

 

Trade Candidates: Ryan Spooner

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we will be profiling several players in the weeks ahead that are likely to be dealt by March 1st.

Throughout the Claude Julien reign in Boston, one which has been wildly successful overall, but has had more than a few bumps in the road over the past three seasons, there has been a stigma that Julien does not work well with young players. Often the reasoning behind confusing trades, like those of Tyler Seguin and Dougie Hamilton, has been that they “don’t fit the system”. It has been apparent that many young players have spent time in Julien’s “dog house” and if you don’t play the way he wants, it’s often your ticket out of town.

Ryan Spooner deserves all the credit in the world for lasting this long. The 24-year-old center has had to work extra hard to be an impact player in Boston, as it is clear that he is not one of Julien’s preferred players. Spooner struggled to carve out a role for himself in 2013-14 and 2014-15, despite playing well when called up. Last season, he finally broke through with a 49-point campaign and had seemingly cemented himself as the Bruins’ third-line center of the future. Julien had other plans though. The head coach has had more success with young players this year than ever before, with Brandon Carlo, Frank Vatrano, and Austin Czarnik all playing big roles. Even a former “dog house” tenant in Colin Miller has earned the coach’s respect. However, it’s been a rough year for Spooner. Julien has moved him all around the lineup, often avoiding playing him at his natural center position, and Spooner’s numbers have felt the impact of this mismanagement. A cerebral play-maker with great vision, Spooner has a lot of skill and many teams would be interested in his services. GM Don Sweeney and the Bruins won’t give him away for nothing, but if the right deal for top four defenseman comes around, they won’t hesitate to offer up Spooner.

Contract

Spooner is in the final year of a two-year, $1.9MM contract, a “show me” deal signed with the Bruins back in 2015, and will be a restricted free agent this summer. With a cap hit of just $950K, the deal paid off when Spooner was one of the best value players in hockey last season. At the deadline, the young offensive weapon would count less than $500K against the salary cap and would be under team control going forward as a restricted free agent. Spooner does have salary arbitration rights this summer, however, and could likely seek a contract similar to the Carolina Hurricanes’ Victor Rask, who got six years, $24MM.

2016-17

Spooner is a natural when it comes to reading the ice and making plays and performs his best when he is able to hold the puck and find open line mates. Spooner is a true center. However, he has spent far more time playing left wing on the Bruins second, third, and even fourth lines this season than he has as their third line center. His statistics show the impact. His assists are down and he’s taking more shots, which is not his strong suit. With the return of Matt Beleskey from injury, Julien and the Bruins finally have a completely healthy forward group, and it has led to Spooner finally getting back to his spot as the third-line center. As long as he stays there, expect his numbers to improve. Additionally, Spooner continues to show this season, after scoring half of his goals with a man-up last year, that he is a power play ace. However, the reasons that he hasn’t earned Julien’s full trust are also clear. Spooner struggles to play a solid two-way game, though he has become tougher along the boards, and is very bad at the face-off dot.

Season Stats

51 games: 7 goals, 17 assists, 24 points, -5, 38.5 FO%, 11 powerplay points, 14:29 ATOI

Potential Suitors

The Bruins can benefit more long-term from retaining Spooner, especially with Julien’s future in doubt, than they can from trading him. That is, unless someone is willing to deal a top-four defenseman to get him. The Bruins do have a very deep prospect system, especially down the middle, and could replace Spooner if they needed to. However, someone will have to make it worth their while.

The West-leading Minnesota Wild are an intriguing possibility. Staring down an almost certainty that, without making a move, they will lose a great defenseman in the upcoming NHL Expansion Draft, the Wild need to be open to moves, even as they fight for a Stanley Cup this season. Though free agent acquisition Eric Staal has worked out immensely and captain Mikko Koivu isn’t going anywhere, the Wild have made it know that they would like to add another top-nine forward and a skilled, young center like Spooner fits the bill. If Minnesota asks Sweeney for Spooner as part of a deal for Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella, or Matt Dumba, it seems likely that the former NHL defenseman would say yes. The same situation could apply to the Anaheim Ducks, who had talks with the Bruins this summer concerning Cam Fowler, but their salary cap situation and Expansion Draft situation make it more unlikely that they could find a sensible way to trade for and extend Spooner.

Outside of Bo Horvat, the Vancouver Canucks have almost no promising young centers or center prospects. Henrik Sedin is 36 years old and Brandon Sutter is better suited for a bottom-six role. Spooner would look good as the team’s future #2 pivot, but is GM Jim Benning willing to move Chris Tanev to make it happen, or would the Bruins settle for Alexander Edler or Ben Hutton?

Likelihood Of A Trade

It’s unfair to say that the Bruins would need to be blown away to trade Spooner, but someone will have to make them a very good offer. If the season continues to be short ups followed by long lows for the B’s, they’ll be outside the playoff picture come Trade Deadline day and more willing to shake the team up with a deal. However, Spooner’s skill is undeniable and he is still under team control at the end of the season as a restricted free agent. They won’t trade him just for a trade’s sake.

Pre-Season Projections: The Midway Point

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Back in September, Las Vegas odds-maker Bovada released their first projections for the 2016-17 season through over/unders on regular season point totals and Stanley Cup odds for each NHL team. When organized and combined, it painted a pretty clear picture of how Vegas saw the season and postseason playing out. So, how are they doing so far? As can be expected, it’s a pretty mixed bag. (Click pictures for larger images)

Bovada projections

These are the original projections that Bovada made prior to the start of the season, accompanied by the resulting playoff match-ups. Any casual fan can likely spot some huge failed predictions halfway through this season. For those not up to date, here are the current standings and the playoff match-ups if they started today:

Current Standings

And here are the projected final standings and playoff line-up, without taking strength of schedule – competition, home and away, spacing – into account:

Projected Final Standings

So, how did they do? If the playoffs started today, then Bovada would have correctly picked five Eastern Conference teams (Washington, Pittsburgh, Montreal, New York Rangers, Boston), including the correct seeds for the Capitals and Rangers, and six Western Conference teams (Minnesota, Chicago, San Jose, Anaheim, Nashville, St. Louis), including the correct seeds for the Sharks and Ducks. However, looking at the projected final standings as of now, the Bruins will drop out and the Los Angeles Kings will slip in, making it four in the East and seven in the West.

Which teams did they miss on? The most egregious error, and one that nearly everyone in hockey made, was counting out the Columbus Blue Jackets. The smart money back in September would have been on Columbus, as Bovada gave them the worst odds of winning the Stanley Cup at 66/1, tied with the Carolina Hurricanes, Vancouver Canucks, and Arizona Coyotes (whose Cup odds have actually gotten worse since then). If the Blue Jackets hit their projection of 116 points this season, they’ll have beaten their over/under by over 31 points in the standings, and will finish with the second-best record in the conference instead of eleventh. On the other side is the Colorado Avalanche. You know you’re having a bad season when Vegas doesn’t predict that you’ll make the playoffs, but you’re still 37 points off the set pace. The Avs are trending toward having one of the worst seasons in recent memory with just 50 points, and no one at Bovada saw that kind of struggle coming. Two other big misses, as it currently stands, have been the Tampa Bay Lightning and Dallas Stars. Bovada expected both to be the second-best team in their conference and gave them top-five odds to win the Stanley Cup. At this point in time, either club would be lucky to even qualify for the playoffs. Other teams that are way off the pace Vegas set for them are the Minnesota Wild, Ottawa Senators, and Toronto Maple Leafs, who have all overachieved this season with little off-season suspicion that they would do so.

What does Bovada have right? They deserve some credit for more or less nailing the Western Conference. Although they missed the meteoric rise of the Wild and the Edmonton Oilers’ long-awaited ascent to a playoff-caliber team, they are currently set to have seven correct playoff choices. Not only that, but the Sharks, Blackhawks, and Ducks are going to finish very close to a push on their original over/unders and the Coyotes look to be every bit the lottery team that they expected. Over in the East, the success is not as profound. Bovada did a pretty good job of pegging the Buffalo Sabres and New Jersey Devils as bottom-dwellers, but completely missed on their projections for the Blue Jackets, Leafs, Senators, and even the Carolina Hurricanes, who they believed would finish last in the East and instead was in playoff position just a couple weeks ago. The postseason picture is better, other than the Lightning, as Bovada got the easy picks and projections for the Capitals, Penguins, and Canadiens and have accurately set up the Bruins and Philadelphia Flyers as fringe teams fighting for a playoff spot.

So, the expert odds-makers at Bovada have some major misses so far, but as a whole are doing a decent job with their original predictions at this point in time. How did your favorite writers at Pro Hockey Rumors do? In short: not very well.

phr-staff-picks

The PHR Staff Picks are not a pretty picture at this point in time. The clean sweep of the Tampa Bay Lightning as Atlantic Division champs appears to be a widespread misread. All but two of us, credit to Brett Barrett and Brian La Rose, additionally had the Bolts in the Stanley Cup final. We’re all as confused as Steve Yzerman as to what it happening in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, the Predators, Blues, and especially the Stars as Central Division contenders seems unlikely, as does the Kings as Pacific champs. However, making the playoffs is more than half of the battle in the NHL, as many lower seeds have gone on to have postseason success. With that, projections of the Predators, Blues, and Kings in the Western Conference final are not impossible. In reality though, there are only two reasonable Stanley Cup champion picks remaining on the board, and Brett Barrett deserves a round of applause for the only plausible Stanley Cup final at this point in time, with the Chicago Blackhawks defeating the Washington Capitals.

Will the current projections hold? Will ours and Bovada’s predictions look better or worse by year’s end? Tune in to the second half of the season to find out.

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