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Snap Shots: Vermette, Havlat, Oilers, Vegas

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Yesterday, Arizona Coyotes GM John Chayka made the somewhat surprising decision to place veteran center Antoine Vermette on waivers for the purpose of buying out the final year of his contract. By all accounts Vermette didn’t have his best season in 2015-16 but still netted 38 points, including 16 on the power play, in 76 games. But in the club’s release announcing the move, Chayka cited the desire to give opportunities to some of the organization’s young players, including perhaps top prospects Christian Dvorak and Dylan Strome.

Regardless of why he’s now available, a player with Vermette’s track record is likely going to draw a fair amount of interest from other clubs. However, the Boston Bruins should not be among those teams, at least that’s the opinion of Joe Haggerty writing for CSNNE.com.

Haggerty argues that signing the 34-year-old Vermette doesn’t mesh with the Bruins’ desire to get younger. I’d argue there isn’t much of a fit in Bean Town since the Bruins already boast Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci at the center position. The team also added David Backes as a free agent and he comes with plenty of experience in the middle. Even if they decided to play Backes on the wing, Boston lists 24-year-old Ryan Spooner as a center and he is coming off a career high 49-point season. There just doesn’t seem to be room for Vermette on this roster.

Now, more from around the league.

  • The list of available free agents may increase by one as Allan Walsh, the agent for former NHLer Martin Havlat, has indicated via tweet his client is currently training with HC Kometa Brno in the Czech League with the intent of returning to the NHL next season. Havlat appeared in just two contests for the St. Louis Blues in 2015-16 before leaving the club for “personal reasons.” He had earned a job with the team after signing a PTO in October. Prior to his abbreviated stint with St. Louis, Havlat had skated in 788 NHL games, spending time with Ottawa, Chicago, Minnesota, San Jose and New Jersey. At one point Havlat was one of the league’s top young offensive players, tallying 31 goals and 37 assists for the Senators in 2003-04, playing most of the season as a 22-year-old. Those prolific scoring days are long gone and in recent seasons Havlat has produced roughly 0.5 Pts/Game. That doesn’t mean a team won’t take a flier on the talented Czech in hopes he can produce even at that level and hold down a regular spot in their top-nine on the cheap.
  • The expansion Las Vegas franchise continues to assemble its front office staff with the club announcing the hiring of Kelly McCrimmon as assistant general manager. McCrimmon, has been the majority owner, GM and head coach of the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL. He has won the WHL’s Executive of the Year award three times since 1995. It was reported earlier this summer that Las Vegas had requested permission from Washington to interview their assistant GM, Ross Mahoney, for the same role. Of course GM George McPhee knows Mahoney well from their days together in the Capitals front office so the potential fit was obvious. It’s not known whether Washington refused permission for Vegas to speak with Mahoney or if the club just elected to go in a different direction.
  • In other management news, the Edmonton Oilers are expected to name Keith Gretzky as an assistant GM, a recent rumor all but confirmed via tweet from Bob McKenzie of TSN. Gretzky is of course the brother of Wayne and has served as the director of amateur scouting for the Boston Bruins, where he worked under current Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli. Obviously Gretzky made a good impression on Chiarelli during their time together in Boston.

 

Calculating Kucherov’s Potential Value As RFA

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Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov is perhaps the best player still without a contract for 2016-17. Of course as a RFA without arbitration rights and given there is practically no chance another team would dare an offer sheet, Kucherov has almost no leverage to use in negotiations for a new deal. Regardless, Kucherov is going to get a significant raise over the modest $700K he earned in salary this year. That might not bode too well for Tampa, who has around $6.5MM in cap space with Kucherov and D Nikita Nestorov still to re-sign. Still, despite the relative lack of apparent progress, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is quite confident a deal with Kucherov will get done, as Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes.

Naturally, knowing a deal will get done and knowing what that done deal will look like are two very different things. Smith speculates that the six-year, $36MM ($6MM AAV) contract Filip Forsberg signed with Nashville serves as a good comparable.

Like Kucherov, Forsberg was coming off his ELC when he agreed to his new pact. In terms of offensive production, there are strong similarities between the two. Forsberg has averaged 0.33 Goals/Game and 0.73 Pts/Game during his 182-game NHL career. Kucherov counters with nearly identical scoring rates of 0.32 Goals/Game and 0.71 Pts/Game over 211 games. Forsberg’s deal certainly would seem to represent a fair comparable.

Yzerman is as patient as they come in his role as GM and he will only make a deal if he feels it fits into the club’s salary structure. Not long ago it seemed all but certain that Steven Stamkos would sign a contract worth close to $10MM annually, whether with Tampa or another club, as that is the going rate for elite players. Yet Yzerman sold Stamkos on his long-term vision for the program and convinced the star sniper to take a more palatable figure for the team.

After getting Stamkos’ name on the dotted line, Yzerman moved to sign franchise defenseman Victor Hedman a year before he would have hit free agency. Ultimately, Hedman and the Lightning agreed to an eight-year, $63MM deal many in the industry feel is a steal for a player of his caliber.

Yzerman might not be the perfect GM (the Ryan Callahan contract already looks like it’s going to be an anchor) but he has done a tremendous job getting most of his own guys to re-sign for fair-market value or less, allowing enough space to get his RFA’s done.

That being said, Kucherov’s representation might look elsewhere for comparable contracts to base their argument on. One such deal is the eight-year, $60MM pact Vladimir Tarasenko obtained from the St. Louis Blues earlier this year. If we again take into account relative offensive production over the last three seasons, Kucherov matches up fairly  well with Tarasenko. The Blues winger is slightly more productive offensively, both in the goal scoring (0.37 goals-per-game) and points departments (0.75 points-per-game). But the difference is small enough that Kucherov’s camp could reasonably push for a contract somewhat closer to Tarasenko’s in AAV.

On the other side of the coin, Mike Hoffman, who recently inked a four-year extension with Ottawa worth $20.75MM ($5.1875MM AAV) could also be used as a marker for Kucherov’s value. Hoffman comes up just shy in terms of points-per-game (0.68) but is essentially equal as a goal-scorer based on rates. Hoffman has averaged 0.36 goals-per-game over the last two seasons while Kucherov has recorded 0.37 per, over the same time frame.

At the end of the day, the Forsberg contract is likely going to be close to what the two sides end up agreeing upon. Kucherov has outproduced Hoffman enough to justify an AAV higher than $5.1875MM. And while Kucherov isn’t too far off from Tarasenko offensively, the Blues winger is the more electric goal scorer and goals pay better than assists. Those factors combined with Yzerman’s ability to make deals on his terms point to the likelihood of something in the range of $6MM annually.

Free Agent Frustration: Kris Russell Is This Year’s Cody Franson

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Nearly one full month into free agency, defenseman Kris Russell remains on the market and looking for his next employment opportunity. Russell is the highest ranking UFA still unsigned from Pro Hockey Rumors top-50 list and despite some earlier reported interest, there doesn’t appear to be much movement currently in his market. In many ways, the slow-moving nature of Russell’s free agency is reminiscent of the case of Cody Franson, who just last summer was forced to wait until September before signing a free agent contract.

Both players entered their respective free agency periods among the top options available at their position and with the expectation of signing lucrative, long-term deals. Like Russell, the market for Franson never seemed to materialize last summer and he ended up getting a two-year deal from Buffalo with an AAV of $3.325MM. It’s becoming more and more likely that Russell will end up having to do the same; ink a short-term contract for far less money than most pundits imagined at the outset of free agency. PHR predicted a four-year deal for the veteran defender with an AAV of $4.5MM. At this point it doesn’t appear Russell will be able to secure a pact anywhere near that total value.

Even though Franson and Russell are both defenseman and have experienced similar frustrations in free agency, albeit a year apart, the two players are more unlike than alike in terms of style and production. Franson was a darling of the advanced stats crowd due primarily to his strong offensive contributions at five-on-five. During the three-season stretch from 2012-13 to 2014-15, Franson tallied 0.94 Pts/60 in five-on-five situations, a figure better than that of Keith Yandle (0.91) over the same period. Of course we know Yandle is widely considered to be one of the top offensive blue liners in the game and was recently rewarded with a rich contract from Florida as a result.

Russell, on the other hand, is more of an old school favorite. He blocks a ton of shots, leading the league by averaging 3.4 blocked-shots-per-game this past season. Russell is fairly mobile and produces enough offense to draw the description of puck-mover. However he struggles in the possession department, ranking 114th out of 124 defensemen who played at least 1,000 minutes at five-on-five with a Corsi For % (CF%) of 45.3%. Because of that, Russell doesn’t rate too well among the analytically-inclined.

It’s possible that Russell’s market has been adversely affected due to more teams utilizing advanced statistics in their decision-making process. Then again it was only five months ago that Dallas agreed to ship two prospects and a conditional second-round draft choice to acquire his services. Chances are there are plenty of teams that still value what Russell does well and that he’ll sign a contract soon enough. Like Franson a year ago, Russell has had to wait longer than expected and likely won’t get either the term or the money originally predicted, but he’s too good not to land on his feet somewhere before the start of the season.

Coyotes Sign Jakob Chychrun To Entry Level Contract

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Craig Morgan of AZSports tweeted that the Arizona Coyotes have inked the second of their two, 2016 first-round draft choices, defenseman Jakob Chychrun, to a three-year ELC. Chychrun, selected 16th overall in last month’s draft, likely has only an outside chance at cracking the Coyotes roster on opening night as the club already has eight blue liners with NHL experience under contract. It’s far more likely the team will elect to return him to his junior club for more seasoning.

Originally slated to select 20th overall, the Coyotes moved up four slots in a deal with Detroit that also saw Arizona absorb Pavel Datyuk’s $7.5MM cap charge. The trade allowed the Wings to clear significant cap space from their books while moving back just a few positions in the draft. Detroit also picked up a second-round choice, 53rd overall, which the team used on defenseman Filip Hronek. Meanwhile, Arizona put themselves in position to take a player they liked tremendously and had even considered drafting with the seventh overall selection.

Chychrun played his junior hockey with the Sarnia Sting of the OHL. In 62 OHL contests, Chychrun tallied 49 points and boasted a +23 plus-minus rating. His father, Jeff, appeared in 262 NHL games, spending time with Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Edmonton and Pittsburgh in a career spanning parts of eight seasons.

First year GM John Chayka has been among the league’s busiest executives this summer. Chayka added D Alex Goligoski via trade and LW Jamie McGinn and D Luke Schenn as free agents to bolster a young but talented roster. He also re-signed team captain Shane Doan and restricted free agent defenders Michael Stone and Connor Murphy to new contracts. Whether these additions will help get the Coyotes back into the postseason or not remains to be seen but Chayka has shown he is unafraid to make impact moves so far.

Snapshots: Kane, Elliott, Mrazek, Hrivik, Gormley

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Evander Kane’s most recent legal woes has led to speculation Buffalo could look to move the talented yet troubled forward. One potential suitor might be the Vancouver Canucks, who are thought to be interested in adding a scoring line winger. Kane of course is a B.C. native and played his junior hockey as a member of the Vancouver Giants of the WHL. Along those lines, Ben Kuzma of the Vancouver Sun makes the case the Canucks need a player of Kane’s ilk and should pursue a trade. Meanwhile, Jason Botchford, writing for The Province, takes the opposite position and lists five reasons the club should avoid Kane.

It’s hard to imagine Buffalo being able to find a trade partner at this point, at least until Kane’s legal issues are resolved. For one, the NHL is monitoring the situation and while they say they aren’t considering punishment for Kane, the possibility of such can’t be dismissed pending the results of the criminal proceedings. Second, at this point in the summer most clubs are capped out, making a move to acquire Kane and his $5.25MM cap charge difficult to complete.

More notes emanating around the NHL…..

  • After finishing dead last in the league in both save percentage and goals against average, the Calgary Flames completely turned over their goaltending position, dealing for Brian Elliott at the Entry Draft and signing Chad Johnson as a free agent. The duo replaces the combination of Karri Ramo, Joni Ortio, Niklas Backstrom  and Jonas Hiller between the pipes for the Flames. Elliott, the presumptive starter, was introduced to the Calgary media Wednesday and wasted little time endearing himself to the followers of his new team.
  • The recent signing of RFA Petr Mrazek has pushed the Red Wings to a figure almost $5MM over the 2016-17 salary cap ceiling. As my colleague, Nate Brown, wrote earlier this morning, the concern is that GM Ken Holland has invested too much of his resources in role players and/or rewarding his own to exorbitant contract extensions. While the concern may be warranted, the Red Wings immediate issue is becoming cap compliant ahead of the start of the upcoming campaign. But as MLive’s Brendan Savage writes, the Wings will likely place veteran forwards Johan Franzen ($3.95MM cap hit) and Joe Vitale ($1.12MM cap charge) on LTIR, thus freeing up just more than $5MM in space and bringing the Red Wings into compliance.
  • The New York Rangers have come to terms with their lone remaining RFA, agreeing to a new contract with F Marek Hrivik, per the club’s website. According to Larry Brooks of the New York Post, Hrivik received a two-way deal which will pay him $600K at the NHL level. Hrivik will go to camp and have an opportunity to compete for one of the final forward spots for the Rangers, though it’s likely he will again spend most of the year in the minors. Last season Hrivik saw action in five NHL games, picking up his first career point. In 68 AHL contests with Hartford, Hrivik netted a career-high 41 points and 29 assists.
  • Former first-round pick Brandon Gormley has agreed to join the New Jersey Devils on a one-year contract worth $650K at the NHL level. Gormley, selected 13th overall in 2010 by Arizona, spent last season as a member of the Colorado Avalanche organization following a September trade. In 26 NHL games this past season, Gormley notched a single assist and recorded eight PIMs. Gormley looked to have a bright professional future after an accomplished junior career. He played for a QMJHL championship club with Moncton in 2010 and won a Memorial Cup as a member of Shawinigan in 2012. He has yet to translate his amateur success into a regular role in the NHL and looks to be earmarked for depth duty in the Devils organization.

 

 

Arizona Stays Busy, Lock Up Stone To One-Year Deal

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Immediately on the heels of the Connor Murphy signing, the Arizona Coyotes have inked fellow blue liner Michael Stone to a one-year, $4MM contract, according to AZSports’ Craig Morgan. Stone and the Coyotes had been scheduled to go to arbitration on August 4th but the two parties obviously found common ground and thus avoided a hearing.

Stone blossomed in his fourth full season in the desert, averaging nearly 22:30 of ice time per game. He ranked second among Arizona defensemen behind Oliver Ekman-Larsson, tallying 36 points in 2015-16. The Coyotes drafted the 26-year-old in the third-round (69th overall) of the 2008 draft.

After accounting for Stone’s deal, Arizona is left with more than $6MM in cap space and only RFA Tobias Rieder left unsigned. That figure is a bit surprising given how busy the Coyotes have been this summer upgrading their roster. In addition to locking up their own RFA’s, Arizona has re-upped with Shane Doan (one-year, $3.88MM), signed UFA winger Jamie McGinn to a multi-year deal worth $10MM over three seasons, and acquired pending free agent Alex Goligoski via trade before extending his contract for five years with an AAV of nearly $5.5MM. That doesn’t even include Pavel Datsyuk’s $7.5MM cap hit which Arizona absorbed as part of a deal to move up four slots in the first round of the recent draft. To still be $6MM under the cap ceiling is an impressive bit of work from John Chayka.

Given the offseason work and the young talent already on the roster, it’s conceivable the Coyotes could force their way into a playoff spot in 2016-17. That’s especially true if goaltender Mike Smith, who missed three months of action last season due to a core muscle injury, returns to form as a quality netminder.

 

 

Coyotes, Connor Murphy Agree To Six-Year Pact

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The Arizona Coyotes and first-year GM John Chayka continue to put the finishing touches on what has been a busy offseason in the desert. Today the club has agreed to a six-year deal with RFA defenseman Connor Murphy that comes with an AAV of $3.85MM. It appears the deal covers Murphy’s remaining RFA seasons along with at least one unrestricted year.

The player’s agent, Brian Bartlett, first indicated that the two sides were nearing an agreement yesterday.

Murphy, who turned 23 in March, finished third among Coyotes blue liners in points (17) and tied for 2nd in goals with six. Arizona is clearly buying into Murphy’s upside as despite his relatively modest offensive contributions to date, his new contract places him in the company of some more accomplished defenseman. Comparable contracts, according to General Fanager, include: Roman Josi ($4MM AAV), Travis Hamonic ($3.857MM AAV), Jake Muzzin ($4MM AAV) and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM AAV). Each of those players posted superior offensive numbers in their platform years.

Chayka recently explained the organization’s defensive philosophy in an interview with Dan Rosen of NHL.com when discussing the acquisitions of Luke Schenn and Alex Goligoski, stating: “Defense isn’t about defending, it’s about getting the puck in the forwards’ hands and getting the puck moving into the offensive zone. It’s about transitioning. That’s the philosophy and that’s been the theme behind the moves that we’re making, let’s get players who can get pucks back and get pucks up to forwards in an efficient and effective manner.”

It would seem then given the length commitment that Chayka and his staff view Murphy as an up-and-comer and someone who can help in the transition game both now and well into the future.

The six-foot-four, 212-pound Murphy was the Coyotes first-round selection (20th overall) in the 2011 Entry Draft. He’s appeared in 181 NHL regular season contests, tallying 11 goals and 32 points while also accumulating 100 minutes in penalties.

Chayka now can cross off another item on his to-do list but still has work to do before calling it a summer. The Coyotes are still working on new deals with RFA’s Michael Stone and Tobias Reider. The Reider negotiations could drag on through the summer as the two sides are evidently not close to agreeing on the forward’s market value.

Minor Transactions: Leivo, Leafs, Sabres, Red Wings

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On this date 20 years ago, The Great One signed a free agent contract with the New York Rangers, rejoining his former Edmonton Oilers running mate, Mark Messier. While it’s highly unlikely will see a signing of that magnitude today, we’ll still bring you news of today’s transactions, even the minor ones.

  • The Buffalo Sabres have announced, via the team’s website, the signing of free agent defenseman Erik Burgdoerfer to a one-year, two-way contract. Burgdoerfer played for the Hershey Bears last season, the AHL affiliate of the Washington Capitals. The 27-year-old native of East Setauket, NY recorded 20 points along with 59 penalty minutes in 74 games for the Bears.
  • According to James Mirtle of The Globe and Mail (via Twitter) the Toronto Maple Leafs have re-signed forward Josh Leivo to a two-year deal. Cap Friendly reports the breakdown of the contract, including that it comes with a cap charge of $612.5K annually. Leivo tallied five goals in 12 NHL games and has seven in 28 career contests in the league. A third-round pick of the Leafs in 2011, Leivo had a nice year for Toronto’s AHL affiliate, the Marlies, scoring 17 goals and 48 points in just 51 games in 2015-16. At this point Leivo projects to be a depth player, again likely to see most of his action in the minors.
  • Mitch Callahan has re-signed with the Detroit Red Wings, according to the team’s website. The right wing, who has appeared in just one NHL contest during his career, recorded 19 goals and 32 points in 62 games for Grand Rapids in 2015-16. Callahan, who inked a two-way contract, will earn $600K at the NHL level and $175K while playing in the AHL, as reported by Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press.
  • Winnipeg has agreed to re-sign RFA left wing Brandon Tanev  to a one-year, two-way deal, as reported on the team’s website. Brandon, the younger brother of Vancouver defenseman Chris Tanev, will earn a little more than $874K while on the NHL roster, which is the value of his qualifying offer. Tanev skated in three NHL contests upon signing as an undrafted free agent in March after wrapping up his four-year college career at Providence College.

Edmonton Parts Ways With Analytics Guru Tyler Dellow

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Mark Spector of Sportsnet has confirmed the Edmonton Oilers will not renew the contract of statistical consultant Tyler Dellow. He becomes the second such consultant removed from his position in the last week, joining Matt Pfeffer, who was dismissed by Montreal. Ironically, both Edmonton and Montreal executed trades this summer that have been widely panned by statistical analyst types in the media.

Some may view this as a movement away from the use of advanced stats in the sport after seeing several clubs hire analysts in recent years. But I don’t see that as the case. It’s more likely that Dellow’s departure has as much to do with Peter Chiarelli not being the GM who hired him than an abandonment of advanced stats.

Pfeffer’s dismissal gained particular notoriety after a THN interview in which the former consultant seemed to suggest his vocal argument against the Weber-for-Subban deal might have led to his ouster. He also appeared to describe Weber as an “average” defenseman, a comment he would later explain via twitter was actually a description of Weber’s recent play based on one limited statistic.

Dellow was hired two summers ago, primarily at the behest of then head coach Dallas Eakins and assistant general manager Scott Howson. With Eakins long gone and Chiarelli now running the hockey operations in Edmonton, it’s probably not a surprise the club chose not to renew Dellow’s contract.

The Holdup On Auston Matthews Contract

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As discussed here, Auston Matthews is one of only four unsigned players selected in the top-10 of this June’s entry draft. Two of those players, Clayton Keller (7th overall to Arizona) and Tyson Jost (10th overall to Colorado) have firm commitments to NCAA programs and are not expected to ink their Entry Level Contracts (ELC) until they are ready to turn pro. That leaves Matthews and #5 overall choice Olli Juolevi as the only players in the top-10 realistically expected to sign their first pro contracts that have not already done so.

Kevin McGran writes about the impasse with Matthews here.

Lou Lamoriello is a savvy, veteran GM who usually closes deals on his terms and we already know he isn’t particularly keen on including performance bonuses in rookie contracts. However in this instance, he may have to give ground. Matthews was the consensus #1 overall draft choice in June and each of last year’s top-two selections, Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, received the maximum bonus value permitted under the CBA ($2.85MM on top of the $925K in base salary).

As McGran discusses, the implications of Toronto sticking to their guns may be felt far beyond this single negotiation. Veteran players, both who currently suit up for the Leafs and future free agent targets, may not think too highly of the organization trying to squeeze a few measly bucks from a young player widely-hailed as the future of the franchise..

Additionally, as we’ve seen in Colorado with Tyson Barrie and Ryan O’Reilly, this type of contentious negotiation now can potentially lead to bigger problems later. Should Matthews fulfill his promise as an elite, two-way #1 center, extending him upon the completion of his entry level contract might prove to be far more difficult should Toronto continue to hold firm on bonus demands.

Granted, there is still plenty of time for an agreement to be reached (roughly two months) but this should have been a relatively straight-forward negotiation. The second overall pick, Patrik Laine, signed for $3.575MM, assuming he meets his bonuses. Pierre-Luc Dubois and Jesse Puljujarvi, chosen third and fourth overall, respectively, can each earn up to $3.425MM per season. It’s hard to imagine any team making a logical case for the #1 overall pick to not maximize his earning potential when each of the players selected after him have contracts in place that can pay out close to the maximum amount.

Like everyone else, I expect a deal to be wrapped up in plenty of time for Matthews to begin the season with the Leafs. However, I can understand why Toronto fans might be feeling a little uneasy with the overall tenor and pace of negotiations.

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