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Boston Bruins Sign Brett Harrison

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One of the better players in a thin Boston Bruins prospect pool, Brett Harrison, has signed a three-year entry-level contract with the team. Per the announcement, Harrison’s deal carries an annual cap hit of $859K.

Harrison, 19, was the 85th overall pick at the 2021 draft and the second selection made by Boston. He’s spent two seasons with the Oshawa Generals of the OHL, missing the entirety of 2020-21, save for ten games across two levels with Finnish club KooVee Tampere.

Harrison is a natural center who produced decently well in the OHL last season. In 71 combined regular-season and playoff contests, Harrison potted 31 goals and 68 points. Harrison plays a balanced offensive style and, if everything breaks right, could emerge as a capable middle-six center at the NHL level.

The defensive side of Harrison’s game needs work, especially if he intends on sticking at the center position as a professional. Despite being among their most talented forwards, Harrison featured only sporadically on the Generals’ penalty kill.

Harrison will in all likelihood head back to Oshawa for another season before continuing his development with the AHL Providence Bruins, his most likely first landing spot under this newly-signed contract.

San Jose Sharks Make Five Hockey Operations Hires

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The re-shaping of the San Jose Sharks under new GM Mike Grier continued today, with the team announcing five hires to their hockey operations department. The hires are as follows:

  • Scott Fitzgerald as Director of Player Personnel
  • Tom Holy as Assistant General Manager
  • Todd Marchant as Director of Player Development, Senior Advisor
  • Chris Morehouse as Director of Amateur Scouting (connection to San Jose first reported by The Athletic’s Corey Masisiak)
  • Ryan Stewart as part of the Pro Personnel department, and as Senior Advisor

Grier previously announced other changes to his hockey operations department, including the hiring of former New York Islanders head coach Doug Weight to a senior position, as well as a turnover of the team’s coaching staff, with a new bench boss in David Quinn.

Fitzerald, the new head of player personnel, is tasked with focusing on “pro and amateur scouting, including potential top-two round selections at the NHL Draft and college free agents,” per the team announcement. Fitzgerald previously served in various roles as a scout for the Boston Bruins, most recently as their Director of Collegiate Scouting. The Bruins have been active in the college free agent market under Fitzgerald’s close watch, perhaps indicating that targeting NCAA free agents will be a strategy under Grier.

Holy, now an assistant GM, was previously a widely-respected media and public relations manager for the Dallas Stars, Sharks, and Cleveland Barons. Per the team, Holy “will oversee the analytics department, staff budgeting and contracts” as well as overseeing various business-related responsibilities.

Marchant becomes the team’s new head of player development, an increasingly important role in a league full of teams fixated on improving their draft-and-develop process. The team states that Marchant will “oversee the player development department,” as he has in the Anaheim Ducks organization since 2011-12. Under Marchant’s watch, the Ducks have been among the NHL’s best teams in terms of delivering young talent to the NHL, especially with defensemen. The Sharks are eager to introduce more young talent to their lineup and that will be Marchant’s primary responsibility going forward, a responsibility he’s well-versed in handling.

Morehouse, the team’s new head of amateur scouting, functioned in the role of Director of Scouting for the New York Rangers. Before his stint in New York, Morehouse was the head of amateur scouting for the Columbus Blue Jackets. Like any scouting director, Morehouse’s draft resume has its fair share of hits and whiffs. What sets Morehouse apart, though, is his six years of experience running a scouting department despite now being just 35 years old.

Finally, Stewart joins the organization as a senior advisor and part of their pro personnel department. Stewart joins the Sharks after being relieved of his duties as assistant GM of the Chicago Blackhawks in March. Stewart was with the Blackhawks for over a decade, rising from the position of video coach to assistant GM. Stewart brings a wealth of experience to his new role and three Stanley Cup rings.

In total, these hires represent a total makeover of the Sharks’ hockey operations department. After the long and fruitful tenure of former GM Doug Wilson, who won just about everything outside of a Stanley Cup, the Sharks have been a bit lost, missing the playoffs for multiple years. It’s a thought that just a few years ago would have been unthinkable. Grier has targeted experienced people to staff these roles, all with extensive resumes.

The biggest responsibility for turning the Sharks around falls on their players, of course, but with these hires Grier is attempting to build a hockey operations department that can best support and complement the efforts of the Sharks’ players.

 

Snapshots: Canadiens Staff Changes, Vladar, Tkachuk

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The Montreal Canadiens aren’t done re-shaping their organization under the new management of Jeff Gorton and Kent Hughes. Today the Canadiens announced that longtime video coach Mario Leblanc is stepping down from his role, and the video coach of the AHL Laval Rocket, Daniel Harvey, has been promoted to Leblanc’s former role. The Canadiens did also say that Leblanc would “remain involved” in the organization, continuing to work within the scope of hockey operations. His specific responsibilities are unclear. Leblanc has worked in the role of video coach for a quarter of a century and is one of the longest-tenured faces in their organization.

In a move that came a bit more quietly, former Florida Panthers scout Billy Ryan was named Director of Player Evaluation in Montreal, as reported by Arpon Basu and Marc-Antoine Godin of The Athletic. (subscription link) Ryan has worked as an amateur scout for the Panthers since 2015-16. Per Basu and Godin’s reporting, Ryan ran the Panthers’ 2020 draft when they were between scouting directors, guiding them to the selections of center Anton Lundell 12th overall and current Canadiens prospect Emil Heineman in the second round.

Now, for some other notes from across the NHL:

  • Calgary Flames goalie Daniel Vladar has changed representation. Agent Dan Milstein announced today that Vladar is now being represented by his agency, Gold Star Hockey. Vladar will be a restricted free agent with arbitration rights next season, and this agency change could be Vladar’s way of preparing for next summer. Vladar performed decently well in his 23-game stint as Jacob Markstrom’s backup, posting a .906 save percentage and 2.75 goals-against-average.
  • Matthew Tkachuk ended up traded to the Florida Panthers, but that trade didn’t come without attempts from other teams to secure his services. One of those teams, per Andy Strickland of Bally Sports Midwest, is the New York Islanders. Strickland reports that the Islanders showed “significant interest” in Tkachuk but ultimately could not or did not complete a deal. The Islanders have been highly secretive in recent years when it comes to their offseason plans, something that should be expected of any team run by legendary GM Lou Lamoriello. But if his reported interest in Tkachuk is any indication, the Islanders are going hunting for a big-name addition this summer. Could free agent center Nazem Kadri be in their plans?

Nick Merkley Signs In KHL

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Fresh off of a successful AHL season, 2015 first-round pick Nick Merkley is headed to Europe. The Calgary native has signed a one-year contract of KHL side Dinamo Minsk, per a team announcement.

Merkley, 25, has been a talented, high-end scorer at every level of hockey he’s played in besides the NHL. At the AHL level, Merkley has 157  points in 201 career games. At that level, he’s a line-driving playmaker with a knack for setting up his linemates and finding his way onto the scoresheet. At the NHL level, Merkley has struggled to make his mark, and his lack of size (he’s just five-foot-ten, 195 pounds) combined with his lack of breakaway skating talent has combined to make him ineffective in an NHL role.

Merkley was actually part of a trade last season, being shipped from the San Jose Sharks organization to the New York Rangers, in exchange for depth defenseman Anthony Bitetto. Merkley heads to the KHL, one of the most challenging leagues in the world outside of the NHL, with at least some success in Europe on his resume. Merkley played 19 games for Assat Pori of the Finnish Liiga in 2020-21, scoring a healthy 13 points in 19 games in what can sometimes be an overly conservative league.

Merkley joins a Dinamo Minsk side that is eager to improve its offensive attack after a middling 2021-22 campaign, a season where they finished in the middle of the KHL standings. Merkley will join fellow former NHLers John Gilmour, Alexei Emelin, Ryan Spooner, and Nikolai Zherdev in Belarus, with the hope that a productive campaign there can earn him a chance at another NHL training camp and perhaps the opportunity to finally emerge as the type of regular NHL-er he was projected to become at the 2015 draft.

Arbitration Breakdown: Jesper Bratt

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While most of the players who had early arbitration dates have settled in recent days, that hasn’t been the case yet for the Devils and Jesper Bratt.  They have until the start of the hearing on Wednesday to reach an agreement; once the hearing starts, they will have to go through the process and wait for the award.

We previously covered how these negotiations have reportedly been “very difficult,” but it seems both sides may be attempting to avoid the arbitration process. Ryan Novozinsky of NJ.com reports that the Devils are “trying to find a reasonable middle ground for both parties,” indicating that there could be an intensification of contract talks before the process begins.

Filings

Team: $4.15MM
Player: $6.5M
Midpoint: $5.325MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

Jesper Bratt had flashed incredible skill and offensive talent before. Ever since he made the NHL as a fast-rising sixth-round pick, many in New Jersey believed in big things to come for the diminutive Swedish winger. In 2021-22, those big things finally came. Bratt led the Devils in scoring, potting 26 goals and 73 points in 76 games. He showed that he had strong chemistry with the Devils’ crop of budding stars, including the team’s franchise player, Jack Hughes.

Bratt’s style is electrifying. Despite his size, he’s a play-driving winger who can single-handedly create offense for his linemates. He’s a pass-first playmaker who has the scoring touch to score 20+ goals consistently. He’s not a defensive player by any means, but he’s also not one to ignore his defensive responsibilities and actively hurt his team in his own end. Finding a player like Bratt is extraordinarily difficult, making it extremely important that the Devils find a way to retain Bratt long-term as they attempt to return to contention after a prolonged rebuilding phase.

It wouldn’t be fair to assess Bratt’s case without conceding that there is a bit of risk to investing in him, as with any breakout player. From a pure numbers perspective, Bratt’s 2021-22 season was his first as a true top-of-the-lineup difference-maker. Bratt’s next-most productive season was his rookie year, when he scored 35 points. If the Devils don’t believe Bratt’s breakout season is repeatable, then caution on their part is advisable.

But Bratt’s play last season gave little indication that his numbers were unsustainable. In fact, Bratt’s play indicated that there could still be some unreached upside in his game. Most followers of the Devils are eagerly hoping for the announcement of a long-term pact with Bratt, and it’s easy to see why.

2021-22 Stats: 76 GP, 26G 47A 73pts, 16 PIMS, 197 shots, 17:26 ATOI
Career Stats: 307 GP, 70G 133A 203pts, 54 PIMS, 590 shots, 15:39 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of this negotiation. 

Drake Batherson (Senators) – Batherson represents the lower end of the Bratt comparables. Coming off of a season where he scored 34 points in 56 games, Batherson inked a six-year, $4.975MM AAV contract extension with Ottawa. As a still-developing former top prospect, Batherson’s deal was all about projection. The Senators believed that Batherson would quickly emerge as a top-of-the-lineup scoring threat, as evidenced by the backloaded structure of the deal. They were right, and Batherson exploded for 44 points in 46 games in an injury-shortened 2021-22 campaign. Since Batherson was able to justify a long-term extension at $4.975MM AAV based on a 50-point pace, Bratt, as a near point-per-game player, should naturally see that cap hit as an absolute floor for his next deal, and only on a one or two-year term.

Jake Guentzel (Penguins) – Another contract that was made with projection in mind, Guentzel signed a six-year, $6MM AAV deal in the winter of 2018. He did so as a Stanley Cup champion, with a near point-per-game shortened rookie season and an incredible playoff run under his belt, a run where he posted 13 goals and 21 points in 25 games. One could certainly make the argument that Guentzel’s case at the time was stronger than Bratt’s is now, thanks largely to his playoff production, but one must remember that Guentzel did not have nearly as much NHL experience as Bratt does now and, perhaps more importantly, Guentzel had the privilege of sharing the ice with Sidney Crosby, which some could have argued had inflated his production. That proved not to be the case, but nonetheless, Bratt has been tasked with driving play as a lead contributor more than Guentzel had to that point in his career. With Guentzel as a comparable, Bratt could reasonably argue for an AAV at or above the $6MM mark.

Projection

This is an arbitration case that is a bit simpler to project than the one for, say, Yakov Trenin. Bratt is an indisputably talented player who has the points and box score numbers to back up that talent. The Devils’ filing for a number in the $4MM range is not an authentic representation of what they believe Bratt is worth, it’s simply a negotiation tactic to give them an upper hand with the arbitrator.

With just how well Bratt played last season, his filing for $6.5MM is not entirely unreasonable. He is playing in a league that pays second-line players such as Kevin Hayes north of $7MM on their own long-term contracts, after all. But like most arbitration cases, Bratt’s final award is likely to be in between his ask and the Devils’ “lowball” number.

One aspect of this battle to keep in mind is the effect the arbitration process can have on the relationship between the team and the involved player. The unique difficulty of Bratt’s negotiations with the Devils has been widely reported, and it’s definitely possible that missteps in the process could light ablaze and cause a reportedly shaky bridge between the Devils organization and Bratt to burn.

Ultimately, even in the unlikely event that Bratt is awarded the totality of his $6.5MM filing, that’s not going to be the biggest risk the Devils take in this process. It’s their failure to complete a long-term deal with Bratt before the arbitration process that could truly cost them, as they are set to enter an arbitration trial, the sort of battle that has catalyzed the exit of many talented NHLers in the past. Hopefully for the Devils’ sake, though, it won’t get to that point, and the Devils and Bratt agree to a mutually acceptable contract extension.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

 

St. Louis Blues Name Kevin Maxwell GM Of AHL Springfield

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A few days ago, we covered how the St. Louis Blues were expected to hire former New York Rangers director of pro scouting director Kevin Maxwell to an at-the-time undisclosed role. The move is now official, and Maxwell’s responsibilities have been made clear. Per a team announcement, Maxwell has been named general manager of the Blues’ AHL affiliate, the Springfield Thunderbirds. The team has also announced that as part of Maxwell’s responsibilities, he will serve as a pro scout as well.

As previously mentioned, Maxwell had served as the Rangers’ director of professional scouting, operating in that role from 2011-12 to 2020-21. Maxwell has been a director of pro scouting for two other organizations as well, including the now-relocated Hartford Whalers. He is a highly experienced talent evaluator who managed the Rangers’ pro scouting operation at a time of significant team success. With Maxwell on staff, the Rangers made numerous deep playoff runs, including a run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2014 and runs to the Eastern Conference Final in 2012, 2015, and 2021.

Maxwell joins a Blues organization that is, like the Rangers, interested in competing in the near-term, perhaps heightening the importance of his professional scouting abilities compared to, say, an executive with an amateur scouting background. Not only are the Blues in “win-now mode,” the Thunderbirds are as well. Springfield made a run to the Calder Cup Final this spring, storming past the league’s Eastern Conference before falling to the Chicago Wolves.

Maxwell will be tasked with not only keeping the Thunderbirds competitive but also maintaining the team’s status as a quality developer of NHL-bound talent. Standout Thunderbirds from 2021-22 such as Charlie Lindgren, Dakota Joshua, and Calle Rosen each earned NHL contracts this summer, with Lindgren getting a relatively sizeable $1.1MM AAV on his deal as well as the chance to enter the fall penciled into the team’s backup goalie role. As their new general manager, Maxwell will be responsible for maintaining the Thunderbirds’ status as a premier developer of NHL talent as well as continuing the historic legacy of minor league hockey in Springfield, Massachusetts.

It’s a major responsibility for Maxwell, but it’s also a great opportunity. With former Springfield GM Kevin McDonald moving on to a post as assistant GM of the Colorado Avalanche, the Blues organization has tapped an extraordinarily experienced executive for this important role. Maxwell is a two-time Calder Cup champion from his time as a player, and perhaps there will be another Calder Cup in his future.

USA Hockey Trims World Junior Roster

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With the 2022 World Juniors now less than two weeks away, hockey federations are in the process of trimming down or setting their rosters for the tournament.  USA Hockey is the latest to do so, officially announcing that their current roster for the upcoming tournament is as follows:

Goaltenders

Remington Koepple (2023 draft eligible)

Kaidan Mbereko (2023 draft eligible)

Andrew Oke (2023 draft eligible)

Defensemen

Sean Behrens (COL)

Brock Faber (MIN)

Aidan Hreschuk (CBJ)

Luke Hughes (NJD)

Wyatt Kaiser (CHI)

Tyler Kleven (OTT)

Ian Moore (ANA)

Jack Peart (MIN)

Jacob Truscott (VAN)

Forwards

Brett Berard (NYR)

Thomas Bordeleau (SJS)

Logan Cooley (ARZ)

Matt Coronato (CGY)

Riley Duran (BOS)

Dominic James (CHI)

Matt Knies (TOR)

Carter Mazur (DET)

Hunter McKown (2023 draft eligible)

Frank Nazar (CHI)

Sasha Pastujov (ANA)

Mackie Samoskevich (FLA)

Red Savage (DET)

Landon Slaggert (CHI)

Charlie Stramel (2023 draft eligible)

With this trimmed roster, there are a few notable cuts, quality prospects for NHL organizations who didn’t quite make it for this tournament. One thing to note is that many national hockey bodies are prioritizing older players in this rescheduled WJC, as this tournament is the final chance for quite a few players to represent their country at the junior level.

A few notable names among the players who were cut from the evaluation camp roster include recent second-round defensemen Ryan Chesley (WSH), Seamus Casey (NJD), and Lane Hutson (MTL). Among forwards, a few quality prospects missed the cut, including a 2021 top-ten pick in Tyler Boucher (OTT), a few 2022 top picks in Cutter Gauthier (PHI), Issac Howard (TBL), Rutger McGroarty (WPG), and Jimmy Snuggerud (STL). Second-rounders Jack Hughes (LAK), Josh Doan (ARZ), and Cam Lund (SJS) also missed the cut.

There are quite a few top prospects remaining on this team, though, including Nazar, the 2022 13th overall pick, Hughes, the 2021 fourth-overall pick, and Cooley, the 2022 third-overall pick. The Americans still have some outstanding cuts to make, but the bulk of their roster-trimming business is now done.

Chicago Blackhawks Add Derek Plante To Coaching Staff

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A few days ago, we covered how University of Minnesota-Duluth associate coach Derek Plante was expected to join the Blackhawks’ coaching staff under new head coach Luke Richardson. Today, the move was made official, with the Blackhawks hiring Plante under the title of assistant coach.

This move marks Plante’s return to the Blackhawks organization, as he served as their development coach from 2015-16 through 2019-20, before returning to the University of Minnesota-Duluth. Under Plante’s stewardship, numerous Blackhawks prospects graduated to the NHL, including players such as Alex DeBrincat, Brandon Hagel, and Adam Boqvist.

At Minnesota-Duluth, Plante served as the top assistant on longtime head coach Scott Sandelin’s staff for the past two years. He also served as an assistant on his staff before his first tenure with the Blackhawks, coaching with them from 2009-10 to 2014-15. Minnesota-Duluth were NCAA tournament champions in 2011, with Plante on staff, and made the Frozen Four in 2021 with him on staff as well.

The addition of Plante to Richardson’s coaching staff lines up well with the Blackhawks organization’s current team direction and overall organizational plan. He has a development-focused background and a wealth of experience in a developmental role. In his prior NHL experience, his chief responsibility was developing the Blackhawks’ young talent and preparing them for the NHL. As an assistant coach, he’ll have quite a bit more to do, but on the rebuilding Blackhawks Plante’s underlying priority will be the same as before: player development.

The Blackhawks are trying to rebuild their organization around a new stable of young talent, and don’t plan on competing for Stanley Cups anytime soon. With his experience as an assistant coach at one of the top NCAA programs and his time as an NHL development coach, Plante is a strong choice for a coaching staff whose number-one immediate priority will likely be player development rather than winning as many games as possible.

Minor Transactions: 07/31/22

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It’s been a long, slow grind since the craziness of free agency opening on July 13, with a good number of high-end free agents remaining unsigned. With many other leagues than just the NHL looking to get their rosters set for next season, though, that hasn’t been the case everywhere. Minor-league teams and overseas leagues are making moves and transactions to their squads every day, giving hockey fans something else to look at. We’ll keep track of today’s transactions right here.

  • The most productive offensive defenseman in the KHL is changing leagues. Kolner Haie, a club in the German top league, the DEL, have signed defenseman Nick Bailen to a one-year contract. Bailen has spent the past five seasons playing for Traktor Chelyabinsk in the KHL. In his entire KHL career, Bailen has 233 points in 367 games over the course of eight seasons. Bailen’s run in Chelyabinsk was particularly successful these past two seasons, as he’s posted 77 points in 100 games. The five-foot-eight defender left North America after a nine-game run with the AHL Rochester Americans in 2012-13 to pursue opportunities in Europe, where he found immediate success in the Finnish Liiga with Tappara Tampere. This signing is a major win for Haie, as they are signing a proven, productive offensive defenseman from one of the best leagues outside of the NHL.
  • Bryce Gervais, an AHL-er for the Iowa Wild last season, is headed overseas. The Stavanger Oilers, a club in Norway’s top men’s league, have announced their signing of Gervais to a contract for next season. The former Chicago Wolves regular returned to North America after a successful two-year run with the Heilbronn Falcons of the DEL-2, Germany’s second-tier league. Gervais struggled to make his mark in the AHL, scoring just nine points in 43 games on very little ice time per night. Gervais was one of Wild head coach Tim Army’s least-used forwards, and despite his increased role late in the season, his underwhelming play secured his exit from the Wild. Gervais will head to a league with lower competition in Norway and join an Oilers squad that were champions of the Fjordkraft-ligaen in 2021-22.
  • Former KHL-er Nikolai Skladnichenko will be heading down a level of hockey for 2022-23. The Russian forward spent 2021-22 with Kristianstads IK of HockeyAllsvenskan in the second tier of Swedish hockey and has now signed a contract with the Nybro Vikings of HockeyEttan, Sweden’s third tier. Skladnichenko wasn’t bad for Kristianstads, scoring 14 goals and 26 points in 47 games, but the team has chosen to go in a different direction for next season, prompting this change. Skladnichenko should get an increased role at Nybro and will hope to help them achieve promotion to the Allsvenskan.

This page will be updated throughout the day.

Arbitration Breakdown: Yakov Trenin

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While most of the players who had early arbitration dates have settled in recent days, that hasn’t been the case yet for the Predators and Yakov Trenin.  They have until the start of the hearing on Tuesday to reach an agreement; once the hearing starts, they will have to go through the process and wait for the award.

Filings

Team: $1.35MM (two years)
Player: $2.4MM (one year)
Midpoint: $1.875MM

(via Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman)

The Numbers

Trenin finally broke into the NHL in 2020-21, becoming a full-time player with the Predators. While he had just 11 points in 45 games, but he added two goals in the team’s six-game playoff run and cemented his place as an everyday NHL-er. With that year as a base point, this past year was when Trenin really made a name for himself in Nashville.

Functioning as part of the Predators’ “Herd” line with rookie Tanner Jeannot and veteran Colton Sissons, Trenin became a fan favorite, playing with the sort of passion that wows crowds and flusters opponents. Trenin’s line became central to the Predators’ desired “Smashville” team identity under coach John Hynes, and Trenin’s work ethic and physical style earned him an increased role.

In 80 games, Trenin had just 24 points. On paper, that’s not notable offensive production by any means. But 17 of those points were goals, and Trenin also had three goals in the team’s four-game playoff sweep at the hands of the eventual champions, the Colorado Avalanche. All of Trenin’s goals came at even strength, as he saw virtually no power-play time. Trenin also made himself valuable on the defensive side of the ice, skating as a second-unit penalty killer for most of the year.

In total, the package of skills Trenin brings to the table is intriguing. Trenin’s old-school, passionate game is one that has endeared him to fans and coaches alike. He scores goals at even strength, and perhaps he could even hit 20 goals with some shooting luck if we consider 17 to be a baseline. And, in addition to all that, Trenin is a capable penalty killer, effective defensive winger, and important member of a Predators line that looks like a set-in-stone trio for years to come. The points don’t jump off the page, and he doesn’t have an extensive track record, but if he can repeat his 2021-22 performance, he’s the kind of player that any team in the NHL would love to have.

2021-22 Stats: 80 GP, 17G 7A 24pts, 46 PIMS, 136 shots, 14:40 ATOI
Career Stats: 146 GP, 24G 17A 41pts, 77 PIMS, 223 shots, 13:00 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides of Trenin’s negotiation. 

William Carrier (Golden Knights) – Carrier is admittedly on the lower end of comparable players, as his goal-scoring hasn’t come close to the heights Trenin has been able to reach. While Trenin’s 17-goal season dwarfs Carrier’s career high of eight in 54 games, if we set aside goal scoring, the comparison becomes clearer. Carrier has a relatively similar play style to Trenin: highly aggressive, physical, with a pace-pushing, always-active tempo. But since Carrier is an inferior goal-scorer and does not offer the same defensive/penalty-killing value, his $1.4MM cap hit should be seen as a floor for any Trenin contract.

Max Comtois (Ducks) – Finding a comparable for Trenin is difficult given the unique offerings present in Trenin’s game, but Comtois is a solid one nonetheless. More of an offensive player than Trenin, he signed a two-year deal with the Ducks after a breakout 2020-21 campaign, a deal worth just a shade over $2MM per year. Comtois scored 16 goals and 33 points in just 55 games in his platform year, better production than Trenin, but did so with more power-play opportunities than Trenin and a role higher in the lineup. He also doesn’t provide the sort of defensive value Trenin provides, although he wasn’t asked to shoulder much of a defensive load by coach Dallas Eakins. The Predators could simply point to Comtois’ scoring numbers and argue that Trenin, as a less productive player, has to be worth less than Comtois’ deal, but such a case would be discounting the intangible ways Trenin impacts the game.

Projection

Trenin is a difficult arbitration case to project because his overall value on the ice is difficult to capture on a piece of paper. The “points” column of a scoresheet might be the single most important area of evaluation for a player when it comes to contract negotiation, and that’s where Trenin’s case is weakest. But everywhere else, Trenin presents a strong case to be worth the $2.4MM he’s demanding. He’s a genuinely useful third-liner who has a ton to like in his game.

That being said, the lack of comparables doesn’t help Trenin, as there isn’t a sort of precedent-setting contract to guide an arbitrator. Additionally, the recent contract for Comtois, who was significantly more productive, coming in at around $2MM AAV, doesn’t help him in his chase of a number above that mark. Perhaps Trenin’s lack of experience, as this past year was his first true full regular season in the NHL, is what will hurt his case the most.

But, even with that in mind, after laying out all the positives in his game, it’s really difficult to make a compelling argument for why Trenin is worth less than $2MM on his next contract. He scores goals, brings all the sorts of physical intangibles coaches and fans want to see, and can kill penalties and provide legitimate defensive value.

With that whole package of skills brought to the table, the dollar values of the filings from each side may feel a bit low. That means this arbitration case will be a fascinating one to follow as we inch closer to August 2nd.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.  Contract information courtesy of CapFriendly.

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