Salary Cap Deep Dive: Seattle Kraken
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Seattle Kraken
Current Cap Hit: $81,489,166 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Matthew Beniers (two years, $897.5K)
F Shane Wright (three years, $950K)
Potential Bonuses
Beniers: $925K
Wright: $3.0625MM
Total: $3.9875MM
Beniers was the second-overall selection last year and had a dominant year at Michigan before making the jump to the pros where he averaged just shy of a point per game down the stretch. He should become their top center within the next couple of seasons and with it, a long-term deal in the $8MM range could be on the table based on recent comparable signings. With his expected role, he should reach his bonuses this season which will need to be factored into their cap plans. Wright slipped to fourth overall last month after being the consensus number one for a lot of the last two seasons but has been billed as being NHL-ready. They’ll be able to ease him in which could result in some lower production at the beginning although it shouldn’t affect his second contract that much unless he’s in a limited role longer than expected.
Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level
D William Borgen ($900K, RFA)
F Ryan Donato ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Joonas Donskoi ($3.9MM, UFA)
D Vince Dunn ($4MM, RFA)
F Morgan Geekie ($1.4MM, RFA)
F John Hayden ($750K, UFA)
F Karson Kuhlman ($825K, UFA)
G Martin Jones ($2MM, UFA)
F Kole Lind ($825K, RFA)
D Carson Soucy ($2.75MM, UFA)
Donskoi was one of Seattle’s higher-profile pickups in expansion but struggled considerably last season, scoring just twice in 75 games. While it’s likely that he’ll rebound to an extent, he’ll be hard-pressed to get more than about two-thirds of his current cost unless he has a career year. Geekie’s first full NHL season was a decent one as he acquitted himself in somewhat of a limited role while being their best player at the faceoff dot. Even in a bottom-six role, there’s some room for him to pass the $2MM mark next summer. Donato returned after being non-tendered to avoid salary arbitration and while he is coming off a career year, the fact he wasn’t able to do better than this on the open market doesn’t bode well for his odds next summer. Lind, Kuhlman, and Hayden will be battling for the final forward spot or two on the roster but are unlikely to command much more than their current rates unless one of them can step into a legitimate full-time role.
GM Ron Francis felt that Dunn would be able to stand out more with a bigger role and he did just that, tying his career-high in points while setting a new benchmark in assists. Another showing like that could push him past the $5MM mark next summer in his final season of RFA eligibility. Soucy wasn’t able to land in Seattle’s top four very often last year but that didn’t stop him from showing off an improved offensive element to his game as he scored ten goals which is two more than the previous two years combined. With the size he also brings, a repeat performance could allow him to generate a strong market that could push his AAV into the $3MM range despite being a third-pairing piece which is an area teams often try to save money in. For Soucy, they might make an exception. Borgen was a frequent healthy scratch last season which certainly wasn’t the Kraken debut he was hoping for. A similar role could have him in non-tender territory next summer while if he does lock down a spot on the third pairing, a one-year deal at a small raise might be the route Seattle opts to take.
Jones is coming off another quiet year with the Flyers and has failed to post a save percentage above .900 over the last four seasons. Despite that, Seattle opted for him as their backup goaltender for the upcoming campaign but at some point, it stands to reason that another below-average performance will push him down closer to the $1MM mark next summer.
Signed Through 2023-24
G Chris Driedger ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Jordan Eberle ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Justin Schultz ($3MM, UFA)
F Alexander Wennberg ($4.5MM, UFA)
Eberle’s first season with Seattle saw him play a similar role to the one that he had with the Islanders so it’s not surprising that his production was largely in line with his performance with New York. It’s an output that isn’t quite worth $5.5MM but if he can stay around the 20-goal mark for the next couple of seasons, he should be able to land somewhat close to this on his next deal. Wennberg wasn’t quite able to replicate the production he had with the Panthers but his output at the center position is worth close to his current rate compared to the open market. However, with Beniers and Wright around, can he get those numbers again? That will dictate a lot when it comes to his next contract as to whether a small raise could be had or a sizable drop.
Schultz comes over from Washington where he’s coming off a quiet year offensively by his standards which made this commitment a bit surprising. He should have an opportunity to play a bigger role offensively which could help but even so, he’ll be 34 when his next contract starts so it’d be hard to foresee a big raise on the horizon.
Driedger had a tough first season with the Kraken although he still managed a save percentage of .899, the best on the team. His second year will be even tougher as an ACL tear suffered at the Worlds will cost him the majority of next season. Suffice it to say, there will be a lot at stake in 2023-24 when it comes to determining his next contract.
Signed Through 2024-25
F Yanni Gourde ($5.167MM, UFA)
D Adam Larsson ($4MM, UFA)
F Brandon Tanev ($3.5MM, UFA)
After a couple of quieter seasons with Tampa Bay, Gourde had a golden opportunity with Seattle last season as he was their all-situations top center. While his best success came in a lower role with the Lightning, Gourde adapted quite well to being a go-to player and finished second on the team in scoring. Again, Beniers and eventually Wright will cut into his playing time but for now, this contract is one of Seattle’s better ones. Tanev was limited to just 32 games last season due to a knee injury but was quite effective over the first couple of months of the season. His contract has long been viewed as above-market after Pittsburgh signed him for six years at his current price but if he stays near that half a point per game mark while playing his usual strong defensive and physical game, the Kraken will do well with this contract.
Larsson was one of two veteran defensemen to eschew a chance at testing the open market last summer to instead sign a long-term deal with Seattle. In his case, he received a much bigger role than he was accustomed to with Edmonton which helped him set a new career-best in points. In the process, he established himself as still being capable of being a second or third defender. That’s not the most optimal role for him and he wouldn’t be in that role on a top team but any time a team can get a second or third blueliner for this much money, it’s one that they’re going to be quite happy with. That said, even if he stays in that role for three more years, it’s unlikely the open market will view him at that level.
Snapshots: Wild, Kraken Captaincy, Halbgewachs
While Minnesota freed up $2.25MM in cap space today with the trade of defenseman Dmitry Kulikov to Anaheim, don’t expect that money to be spent right away. GM Bill Guerin told Michael Russo of The Athletic (subscription link) that while he wouldn’t rule out using it on a free agent, it’s unlikely that he’ll opt to do so. Guerin felt that the Wild needed more cap space and while they’re shown as having a little over $5.7MM in room right now per CapFriendly, that figure has them with a minimum-sized roster which is likely to change. But even with adding a couple of players to that current projection, Minnesota will be well-positioned from a cap perspective to make additions to their roster in-season and will have some room to work with if injuries arise. It may not seem like much but that’s a cap situation that many teams would like to have right about now.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Last season, the Kraken had Mark Giordano as their inaugural captain but that post has been vacant since the veteran was moved to Toronto at the trade deadline. GM Ron Francis told Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times that he’ll sit down with head coach Dave Hakstol to decide if they even want to name a captain this season and that if they do, they’ll likely wait to see how training camp goes before making a decision. Veterans Yanni Gourde, Jordan Eberle, and Adam Larsson would be candidates for the captaincy if they do decide to name one for 2022-23.
- Free agent winger Jayden Halbgewachs has drawn interest from MoDo in Sweden, sports director Henrik Gradin acknowledged to Ornskoldsviks Allehanda. The 25-year-old is coming off a productive year with AHL San Jose where he had 41 points in 59 games while also getting into three games with the Sharks, picking up his first career point. While he’s the type of player that would typically generate a fair bit of interest on a two-way deal, heading overseas to play in a top league there might ultimately help his value in the long run if he was to get back to being a top scorer as he was back in junior.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: San Jose Sharks
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
San Jose Sharks
Current Cap Hit: $82,362,501 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Thomas Bordeleau (two years, $917K)
F William Eklund (three years, $894K)
F Scott Reedy (one year, $843K)
Potential Bonuses
Eklund: $850K
Reedy: $82.5K
Totals: $932.5K
All three of these players are likely to spend some time at both the NHL and AHL levels. Reedy is the most experienced of the three after spending half of last season with the Sharks in a depth role but he’s the type of player that next summer will be looking at taking less than his qualifying offer in exchange for a higher AHL pay (or a one-way deal). His bonuses are based on games played so some might be achievable. If Eklund can lock down a full-time spot in training camp, he’ll have a chance at hitting some of his ‘A’ bonuses but, like Bordeleau, he’s probably better off playing top minutes in the minors over a lesser role in the NHL. With both having very limited NHL experience, it’s too early to forecast their next contracts but both players figure to be big parts of San Jose’s future plans.
Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level
F Nick Bonino ($2.05MM, UFA)
F Jonah Gadjovich ($750K, RFA)
F Noah Gregor ($950K, RFA)
D Nikolai Knyzhov ($850K, RFA)
F Timo Meier ($6MM, RFA)
F Matt Nieto ($850K, UFA)
D Markus Nutivaara ($1.5MM, UFA)
G James Reimer ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Jeffrey Viel ($750K, RFA)
Potential Bonuses:
Nutivaara: $250K
Meier’s contract is a by-product of what teams expected the financial picture to look like at this time, one that featured some significant increases to the Upper Limit. The heavily back-loaded structure sees him carry a $10MM salary this season which also represents his qualifying offer next summer; while the new CBA put in the 120% of AAV cap (unofficially thought by some as the Meier Rule), contracts signed before that time like his aren’t subjected to it. Under the projected future cap from a few years ago, a $10MM price point for a top-line winger would have been high but probably reasonable but now, it’s certainly on the high side. It’s unlikely San Jose would non-tender him next summer even at that price tag but they’ll be wanting him to leave a bit of money on the table from an AAV perspective on a long-term extension.
Bonino has scored at least 10 goals in six straight years and eight of the past nine while winning faceoffs at an above-average rate. That combination makes him a bottom-six fit for several teams so he should have a decent-sized market next summer at a similar price point to this. Gregor spent most of last season with the Sharks and acquitted himself well but San Jose’s cap situation basically forced a one-year deal. He’ll have arbitration eligibility next summer and should add at least a few hundred thousand to his price tag. Nieto, Gadjovich, and Viel are all role players that are likely to come in below $1MM on their next contracts.
Nutivaara is coming off a season that limited him to just a single appearance due to a lower-body injury but has a track record of being a serviceable third-pairing player. He’ll max out on his bonuses at 60 games played and if he’s able to suit up that many times, he’ll have a stronger market and a chance to earn a bit more next summer. Knyzhov missed last season due to a core muscle injury and tore his Achilles tendon in offseason training earlier this month which will cause him to miss at least the first half of the season. He’s a capable young defender but these injuries will limit him to another short-term, low-cost contract.
Reimer will be the second goaltender next season after Adin Hill was moved to Vegas earlier this week. The 34-year-old got the bulk of the starts in 2021-22 and did alright considering how much the team struggled. A similar showing this season would put him in line for at least a small raise as the cost for quality veteran backups continues to rise.
Signed Through 2023-24
F Alexander Barabanov ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Kaapo Kahkonen ($2.75MM, UFA)
F Luke Kunin ($2.75MM, RFA)
F Kevin Labanc ($4.75MM, UFA)
F Oskar Lindblom ($2.5MM, UFA)
D Jaycob Megna ($763K, UFA)
F Steven Lorentz ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Radim Simek ($2.25MM, UFA)
Labanc’s contract is basically the reward he received for taking a significantly below-market contract back in 2019 to help with San Jose’s cap situation at that time. Things have not gone well since then as he has battled injuries and struggled to produce. At this point, his market value two years from now might be half of his current cost. Barabanov quietly finished fifth on the Sharks in scoring last season with 39 points and this deal represents a lower-risk commitment to see if it was a fluke or a sign of things to come.
Kunin and Lindblom are newcomers that have shown flashes of upside but haven’t been able to put it together consistently. Kunin’s cost is a bit high relative to his production but power forwards often get more than market value while Lindblom hasn’t been the same since returning from his bout with cancer which resulted in the Flyers buying him out this summer. Both are on placeholder deals to see how they’ll fit on a new team and to give the top prospects like Eklund and Bordeleau time to develop. If things go well, small raises could come their way. Lorentz comes over from Carolina and is a fourth liner that the Sharks feel might be able to play higher in the lineup. That will need to happen for him to have a chance at a notable raise next summer.
Simek hardly played last season and doesn’t appear to be part of their plans on the back end beyond a depth spot. However, this isn’t a particularly ideal market for cutting salary so it’s unlikely that San Jose will be able to move him. Unless he can lock down a regular role, his next contract will be closer to half of what he’s getting now. Megna is a serviceable depth defender at the league minimum for two years and if he can play on the third pairing most nights, he’ll have a shot at a small raise in 2024. Notably for him, this contract is his first one-way pact after four straight two-way deals.
Kahkonen was brought over from Minnesota at the trade deadline with the hopes that he can be San Jose’s starter of the future. However, a limited track record made a long-term deal very difficult to work out so they effectively settled on another bridge contract. If he can prove he’s a starter-caliber goalie, doubling his current AAV is achievable but if he proves to be more of a platoon option, his next deal will likely be in the $3MM range.
Signed Through 2024-25
F Nico Sturm ($2MM, UFA)
Sturm started his pro career late after going through college first and basically only has the last two seasons as a regular player where his role has been somewhat limited. Clearly, the Sharks believe there’s some upside that will justify the three-year commitment and if he’s able to produce closer to the 30-35-point mark, they’ll do well with this contract.
Keith Yandle Unsure About Playing This Season
When last season ended, Keith Yandle’s ironman streak had come to an end and after being a healthy scratch down the stretch, it seemed like the 35-year-old was going to be calling it a career. However, his agent Jerry Buckley told ESPN’s Greg Wyshynski that the veteran hasn’t decided whether or not he wants to play this season and that teams are in discussions with him about the defenseman.
Yandle is coming off a tough 2021-22 campaign. After Florida bought him out last July, he signed with Philadelphia where the expectation was that he’d help boost their production from the back end. Unfortunately for them, that didn’t happen. Instead, he managed just a single goal in 77 games along with 18 assists, his worst output since his rookie year back in 2007-08. While plus/minus doesn’t carry the value it once did, it’s worth noting that he was -47 which was the lowest in the NHL.
At first glance, Yandle would be a prime candidate for a PTO deal as many veterans will be settling for over the next couple of weeks to ensure they’ll be at a training camp. However, Buckley indicated that it’s unlikely that the blueliner would be willing to go that route and that not having a contract to start the season wouldn’t automatically mean that his career would be over. Instead, he would be looking for the right fit.
With over 1,100 career regular season games and 619 points under his belt, Yandle has had quite a successful career, especially considering he was a fourth-round pick back in 2005. We’ll see over the coming weeks if he’s able to find the right fit to play a 17th NHL season.
Five Key Stories: 8/22/22 – 8/28/22
The final full week of August often marks the start of the final push to get contracts done with training camps now just a few weeks away. That was indeed the case from the past seven days as the majority of the top stories were on the signing front although there was a notable one on the business side of things as well.
Bridge For Zadina: With Filip Zadina having another up and down season with Detroit last season, a bridge deal was expected. In the end, that’s what he received as he inked a three-year deal that carries a $1.825MM AAV. The sixth-overall pick in 2018, Zadina had 10 goals and 14 assists in 74 games with the Red Wings last season which isn’t where he was supposed to be after being a top scorer in junior. This deal gives Detroit a chance to continue to bring him along slowly and evaluate him at a relatively low cost. The 22-year-old will still have one year of RFA eligibility remaining at the end of this contract and will be owed a $2.19MM qualifying offer along with salary arbitration rights.
Texier Won’t Play With Columbus: After being granted a leave of absence for the final two months of 2021-22 following the deaths of two family members, it was expected that Blue Jackets forward Alexandre Texier would be back in the lineup with Columbus next season. However, that won’t be the case as instead, the team announced that the 22-year-old won’t join the team at all next season. Instead, an agreement has been worked out between Columbus, Texier, the NHL, and the NHLPA which will result in Texier being suspended for the season while allowing him to sign a one-year deal with Zurich of the Swiss NLA to play closer to home. The Blue Jackets won’t incur any salary cap charges for Texier next season while the one year remaining on his contract is expected to roll over to 2023-24.
Stastny To Hurricanes: With Max Pacioretty heading for LTIR for most of the season, Carolina had the ability to use some of his cap hit to look for a replacement player. They did just that as they signed veteran center Paul Stastny to a one-year, $1.5MM contract that also contains $500K in bonuses if the Hurricanes win the Stanley Cup. The 36-year-old is coming off a quality season in Winnipeg that saw him record 21 goals and 24 assists in 71 games and certainly left money on the table to join Carolina. He will give them a quality backup plan if Jesperi Kotkaniemi isn’t ready to move into the center spot on the second line following the departure of Vincent Trocheck and with 103 career playoff games under his belt, he’ll be one of their most experienced postseason performers.
Islanders Sign Three: The Islanders took care of their NHL restricted free agents as they announced new deals for winger Kieffer Bellows plus defensemen Alexander Romanov and Noah Dobson. Bellows received a one-year, $1.2MM deal on the heels of a 19-point season, his first with regular NHL action. Romanov, meanwhile, inked a three-year contract that carries a $2.5MM AAV. He was New York’s big acquisition this summer after being acquired at the draft from Montreal along with a fourth-round selection in exchange for their first-round pick and will be tasked with locking down a spot in their top four. As for Dobson, his contract was also for three years at a $4MM AAV. He is coming off a breakout year that saw him put up 51 points in 80 games while logging over 21 minutes a night. While the cap hit is certainly a bargain for that production, the term of the deal takes him a year away from UFA eligibility which does carry some risk.
Kessel To Vegas: Phil Kessel will take aim at the NHL ironman record in the opening month of the season as a member of the Golden Knights after Vegas signed him to a one-year, $1.5MM deal. The 34-year-old had just eight goals with Arizona last season but still managed 44 assists. The Golden Knights lost some offensive depth on the wing with the departures of Max Pacioretty, Evgenii Dadonov, and Mattias Janmark so Kessel will help to replace some of that lost offense. In order to afford him, they are dipping into the cap space freed up following the loss of Robin Lehner and his $5MM AAV for all of next season following hip surgery.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Los Angeles Kings
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Los Angeles Kings
Current Cap Hit: $80,986,667 (under the $82.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
D Tobias Bjornfot (one year, $894K)
F Quinton Byfield (two years, $894K)
F Arthur Kaliyev (two years, $894K)
F Rasmus Kupari (one year, $863K)
D Jordan Spence (two years, $820K)
Potential Bonuses
Bjornfot: $262.5K
Byfield: $2.65MM
Kaliyev: $150K
Kupari: $350K
Spence: $82.5K
Total: $3.495MM
Kailyev had a decent first full NHL season, notching 27 points in 80 games in a limited role. He’s likely to remain in the bottom six for a little while yet which will likely have him trending towards a bridge contract in 2024, one that would still more than double his current price tag. Byfield, the second-overall pick in 2019, had a quiet rookie year and is unlikely to play any higher than the third line with the veterans ahead of him on the depth chart. Accordingly, a big-ticket contract isn’t coming his way in two years’ time; both sides will want a short-term pact. Kupari was a serviceable checking forward last season which isn’t bad but they’re hoping for more offensively from him. A similar showing this season will put his bridge contract in the $1.5MM range.
Bjornfot was a fixture on the third pairing for most of last season and it will be interesting to see if head coach Todd McLellan pushes him a little higher in 2022-23. His limited offensive upside will limit his earnings potential (especially if they try to work out a long-term deal) but he’ll have a shot at doubling his price tag next summer. Spence could be a waiver-exemption roster casualty in camp but after logging nearly 20 minutes a game in limited action last season, he has earned a longer look. It’s a bit early to forecast his next deal but as someone that was quite productive in the minors and did well in his first NHL stint, he’s someone that could be poised for a considerable jump on his second deal.
Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level
F Jaret Anderson-Dolan ($750K, RFA)
F Lias Andersson ($750K, RFA)
D Alex Edler ($750K, UFA)
F Brendan Lemieux ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Trevor Moore ($1.875MM, UFA)
G Jonathan Quick ($5.8MM, UFA)
F Gabriel Vilardi ($825K, RFA)
F Austin Wagner ($1.133MM, RFA)
Potential Bonuses
Edler: $750K
Moore is coming off a breakout year that saw him more than double his previous career-high in points while establishing himself as a fixture on the second line. At this point, both sides will want to see how things go next year; a repeat performance could put him closer to the $3.5MM to $4MM mark while a dip closer to his career averages would knock at least a million off of that range. Lemieux quickly re-signed after being non-tendered but will need to establish himself as more than just a fourth-line energy winger if he wants an opportunity to really get to that next salary tier. Wagner spent all of last season in the minors but could be back on the fourth line at some point. Otherwise, all but $8.3K can be buried in AHL Ontario if he clears waivers again.
Among the younger forwards, Vilardi was quite productive with AHL Ontario last season but didn’t produce much with the Kings, just seven points in 25 games. That got him a one-year bridge deal. At this point, he’s likely to break camp as he’s now waiver-eligible but this could be a make-or-break year with several other youngsters in the pipeline. Andersson and Anderson-Dolan are in similar situations, players who are also now waiver-eligible and haven’t produced much to date in the NHL. Until they can establish themselves as regulars, they’ll be going year-to-year on their deals.
Edler was once again limited due to injuries last season but he did well in a supporting role when he was in there, resulting in a one-year extension. At 36 and with his injury history, he’ll be going year-to-year on similarly-structured deals for the rest of his career.
Quick has been a fixture between the pipes for the Kings for more than a decade. Heading into last season, his contract looked like a considerable overpayment for someone that was expected to be pushed down into the second-string role. However, he then went out and became the 1A option once again which changes the outlook of his contract considerably. Quick will be 37 when his next contract is signed so he will likely be going year to year moving forward but if he can even keep a grab of a platoon spot, he should have some interest on the open market in the $3.5MM range next summer. Will he be willing to leave Los Angeles, however? That one remains to be seen.
Signed Through 2023-24
F Viktor Arvidsson ($4.25MM, UFA)
F Carl Grundstrom ($1.35MM, RFA)
F Anze Kopitar ($10MM, UFA)
F Blake Lizotte ($1.675MM, RFA)
D Jacob Moverare ($762.5K, RFA)
D Matt Roy ($3.125MM, UFA)
D Sean Walker ($2.65MM, UFA)
Kopitar has been the top center for the Kings for most of his 16-year career and even if he hasn’t produced at the level of a high-end pivot, his defensive play has made him a true number one. However, he’ll be 37 two years from now and the days of him logging over 20 minutes a night should be done by then. His next contract could very well be his last and should be either two or three years with an AAV closer to the $6MM mark as long as he can still play at a second-line level by the end of the 2023-24 campaign.
A new team was just what Arvidsson needed as he had a nice bounce-back year after a pair of quiet seasons at the end of his tenure with Nashville. He fit in nicely on the second line, one that was very effective defensively, good offensively, and carried plenty of possession. Continuing that combination for the next two seasons would give him a good chance of adding another million or so on his next contract. Lizotte just wrapped his first full NHL season on the third line which understandably resulted in a short-term second contract. He’ll need to establish himself as capable of playing a bit more than 12 minutes a night by 2024 as otherwise, he could be one of those arbitration risks that teams are opting to walk away from more frequently. Grundstrom has provided the Kings with plenty of physicality, albeit in a limited role and with the look of their roster right now, his short-term fortune isn’t likely to change. That could put him in the same situation Lemieux was last month, getting non-tendered to avoid arbitration.
Roy has never been a particularly flashy defenseman which is what made this deal – originally a four-year pact – a bit of a head-scratcher at the time. However, he continues to be a reliable role player and he stepped up quite nicely when injuries arose last season. As is the case with Bjornfot, his limited offensive upside will limit the price tag of his next contract but there’s room for him to add a little more to his current AAV. Walker missed all but six games last season due to a knee injury and has been used as a fifth defenseman when he has played over the last couple of years. As teams look to trim costs by going with more cost-effective depth players, that could be a challenge for Walker unless he can step into a top-four role. Moverare is now waiver-eligible and with him signed for two years at the minimum, he’s a risk to be claimed off waivers so he’ll likely enter the season as their seventh defenseman although that’s not great from the perspective of his next contract.
Signed Through 2024-25
F Alex Iafallo ($4MM, UFA)
G Calvin Petersen ($5MM, UFA)
Iafallo is the ideal winger in the sense that can play different roles and succeed in all of them. That type of versatility can be quite valuable to a team and he has done well in that role with the Kings. On the other hand, with some wingers feeling the pinch in recent UFA contracts, this also now looks like a bit of an above-market contract. The financial landscape should change by the time this deal is up though so the valuation of the contract might be different a couple of years from now.
Petersen signed this contract a year ago as an extension to his now-expired deal so this will be his first year with the weight of expectations that a deal like this carries. Instead of being a second option making less than a typical backup, he’s now tied for 14th in AAV among all NHL goaltenders despite having just 91 career regular season games under his belt. If he can wrestle back the starting role and play 50-55 games a season, they’ll get good enough value out of this deal but that’s a bigger question mark now than it was a year ago.
Examining Trade Options For San Jose’s Goalie Surplus
Generally speaking, extra depth is rarely a bad thing to have. That extra impact forward, carrying more than four top-four defensemen, these are often elements of successful teams. But that same argument doesn’t apply to goaltending as almost all of the time, carrying three is seen as less than ideal and teams will often move their extra option before too long.
San Jose is presently an exception to that idea as they’re carrying three NHL goaltenders in Kaapo Kahkonen, Adin Hill, and James Reimer. All three are on short-term deals (Reimer and Hill have one year left and Kahkonen two) and all three make between $2.1MM and $2.75MM. At least from a contract standpoint, they’re more or less interchangeable.
But Kahkonen was brought in from Minnesota at the trade deadline and then given the two-year deal so it stands to reason that they don’t want to move him. That leaves the 26-year-old Hill and the 34-year-old Reimer as their two trade options with the latter only making $75K more than the former. The Sharks might prefer to keep the younger Hill but his trade value might be better depending on who shows interest.
With that in mind, let’s examine some of the teams that might be interested in adding one of San Jose’s netminders even with most of the goalie movement being done for the summer.
Arizona
The Coyotes know they don’t have their backup goalie on the roster yet. Karel Vejmelka is unproven as a starter so adding a second netminder that could play close to half the games wouldn’t hurt. Yes, they’re a team with an eye on the future but they can still try to lose competitively. Would they trade for Hill after moving him to San Jose just over a year ago or would they prefer Reimer? If not one of them, they’ll be watching the waiver wire in October.
Minnesota
There isn’t a true opening with Marc-Andre Fleury as the starter and Filip Gustavsson as the backup but Gustavsson is coming off a tough 2021-22 campaign with Ottawa. Playing Fleury heavy minutes would carry some risk so while Gustavsson is the backup of the future, GM Bill Guerin might want to assess if they’d be better off with a more reliable second option even if it forces them to turn around and carry three goalies with Gustavsson now being waiver-eligible.
Philadelphia
Back in May, it looked like the Flyers had their goalie situation figured out as they were able to sign highly-touted prospect Ivan Fedotov to partner up with Carter Hart. However, the netminder is now serving in the Russian military which will take him out of the equation. Felix Sandstrom is likely next in line but has just five career NHL appearances under his belt. Philadelphia is looking for more short-term success so adding a more proven backup is something GM Chuck Fletcher will likely be looking into.
Vegas
Following the season-ending hip surgery for Robin Lehner, GM Kelly McCrimmon came out and said his intention is to go with Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit as their tandem. Thompson has shown promise but his NHL experience is limited while Brossoit has been hit and miss in his career. If things don’t go well early on, they could look to turn to San Jose for a chance at an upgrade.
Washington
This might seem a little odd considering that they just signed Charlie Lindgren to a three-year deal to be Darcy Kuemper’s backup. But Lindgren’s cap hit is right at the line of being fully buriable in the minors if a better option presents itself. Their LTIR situation with Nicklas Backstrom gives them some extra flexibility to add a short-term deal so if they trust Reimer or Hill over a goalie that has just 29 games of NHL experience and finished up the AHL playoffs as the backup, GM Brian MacLellan will likely check in on what that upgrade would cost.
Winnipeg
They added David Rittich as a low-cost backup early in free agency, handing him a one-year, $900K contract. That can be fully buried in the minors if a better option presents itself. The Jets still have considerable cap space at their disposal and are a team with an eye on winning in the present so if they aren’t able to add at other positions, turning around and upgrading Connor Hellebuyck’s backup would be a reasonable backup plan.
Obviously, not all of these teams are going to make a move between the pipes in the coming weeks so the options for GM Mike Grier are going to be limited. If he wants to get top value – the asking price for Reimer is believed to be a second-round pick – he might have to wait until the season starts to see if injuries force someone’s hand. Otherwise, it will be a limited market for whichever one he decides to move. Surplus quality depth at most positions is usually a good thing and could yield a strong return in a trade but for goaltenders, it’s just not the case.
PHR Mailbag: Standings, Ottawa’s Defense, O’Reilly, Predictions, Sabres, Flyers
Topics in this edition of the mailbag include Ottawa’s back end, what’s next for the captain of the Blues, Philadelphia’s future, and more. If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.
W H Twittle: The 2023 draft promises top-end talent with the first five picks: Bedard, Michkov, Fantilli, Dvorsky, and Yager not to mention Benson, Ritchie, and Danielsson. With their current rosters and notwithstanding the lottery which teams will finish in the bottom five this coming season? Chicago, Arizona, San Jose, Montreal, and Philadelphia?
I think it’s safe to put Chicago and Arizona in there. But those are the only two truly obvious ones.
Montreal finished dead last and their back end is now worse. That’s typically a recipe for a lot more losing but a full year under Martin St. Louis and a better forward group than they finished up with could push them out of the bottom five. For this exercise, I’d still put them there but it’s not as obvious a choice as it might seem.
I get the temptation to put Philadelphia there but I think John Tortorella will give them a bit of a boost. Not enough to get into the playoffs, mind you, but they’ll be better than this level. Instead of a Metropolitan team, I’d put another Atlantic squad in and say Buffalo. Yes, their young core did well down the stretch but their goaltending is going to cost them a lot of games. Between that and it being a tougher division with Detroit and Ottawa both improving and I could see the Sabres sliding back into the bottom five.
As for a team from the Pacific, I’d lean towards the Sharks finishing at the basement but I’d also have Seattle in that mix. The Kraken improved this summer but they still are going to struggle mightily when it comes to scoring which will offset some of the eventual improvement between the pipes. Let’s go with San Jose here at this point but it’s far from a given.
Of course, we’re still six weeks away from rosters being finalized so things could definitely change between now and then.
jdgoat: Does Ottawa still make a move for a top-four defenseman or are they going to have to hope a young player is able to step up and take that spot?
We know they want to do that but there’s basically only one available on the trade market in Jakob Chychrun and the asking price is too steep for their liking. Between Jake Sanderson, Lassi Thomson, and Jacob Bernard-Docker, at least one of them should be ready at camp and by midseason, another one might be ready so the internal option makes the most sense.
There are two ways to upgrade the top four. The most common one is to add a top-four player but I also believe that upgrading the third pairing upgrades the top four. If the floor of the third pairing improves and all of a sudden can take on a bigger role, that’s less pressure for the top guys and over time, it’s a little less wear and tear on a cumulative level and a little less on an in-game basis as well. That’s a worthwhile improvement as well and is typically easier to do than to add a proven top-four option.
I’ve mentioned this before when discussing Detroit but it applies to Ottawa as well. Teams rarely go from missing the playoffs to contenders right away and there’s some value in seeing what your youngsters are going to do in the heat of a playoff race and perhaps a playoff round. From there, then the GM can go and add that final piece based on what they saw actually happened with their youngsters compared to what they think will happen if they made that move now. My sense is that they’d be better off going with what they have on the back end to start the year and if they hold their own, let them go through the playoff run and then reassess the state of the defense corps from there. But if the asking price for Chychrun drops a bit, I probably wouldn’t fault Dorion for going to get him if a trade wound up materializing.
Gmm8811: Looking into the crystal ball and wondering about your thoughts on Ryan O’Reilly? Contract is coming up and we all know Doug Armstrong is not afraid to let a captain walk if he perceives the value to be too high. I’m fairly sure there’s no prospects in the pipeline that has all the intangibles to bring to the table that ROR has. Then there’s the Tarasenko thing.
In a perfect world, there’s a pathway to bringing O’Reilly back. That perfect world includes him taking a notable cut in pay which isn’t something I’m sure he’s willing to do, at least to the extent that would likely be needed.
The good news, however, is that even if he was to leave, St. Louis would still be in pretty good shape down the middle. Robert Thomas has an eight-year extension in place already and Brayden Schenn has six years left on his current deal. That could very well be their one-two punch for a while and would go a long way towards easing some of the concerns about not having a key middleman in the pipeline that’s close to being ready for an impact role.
If O’Reilly wanted to take a couple million less on his current deal and sign for around $5.5MM on a medium-term contract, I think Armstrong would find a way to make that work. That’s a premium for a third center but those three comprise one of the stronger center groups in the league so why wouldn’t they want to keep that together?
You mention Vladimir Tarasenko whose contract is up and with his trade request still believed to be intact, it’s hard to envision an extension. The problem is that they’ve already spent most of his expiring deal on Thomas and Jordan Kyrou is a year away from a big contract of his own. Even if Tarasenko wanted to stay on a market-value deal, that would be tricky to accomplish.
If I had to guess, I think O’Reilly would leave a little money on the table to stay but there will be a sizable market for his services if he wants to go to free agency. I don’t think the Blues will be able to afford him at market value so it will be tough for them to keep him around unless Armstrong moves out a contract of note first. I do expect they’ll push hard to find a way to make it work though as he’d be a tough player to lose.
The Duke: All-seeing, -knowing, and -telling Crystal Ball: Who are your top-four candidates to become can’t-miss 30-goal scorers; top-three scoring defensemen + top-three standout goalies from the recent draft? Bonus Q: is UPL or Devon Levi the Sabres’ goalie of the future?
Forwards: The big three from the top of the draft projections – Shane Wright, Juraj Slafkovsky, and Logan Cooley are the obvious ones to choose from. If we’re talking about can’t-miss players before they even play an NHL game, the logical choices are the top picks. Joakim Kemell (17th to Buffalo) might not be a can’t-miss guy but he should have some 30-goal seasons under his belt and is an early candidate to outperform his draft position.
Defensemen: Simon Nemec is the obvious choice so let’s go with him first. I think David Jiricek will be the next best defender in terms of value but he might not be a huge point producer. Denton Mateychuk is someone that should be an offensive threat at the next level so let’s put him here and Pavel Mintyukov’s aggression will get him into trouble defensively at times but it’ll help him put up points in the NHL so he should be one of the top-scoring blueliners from this class.
Goalies: The crystal ball spat out a different answer for this one – NA as in not applicable (or no answer). Honestly, I’m not sure there’s one standout goalie from this draft class let alone three. Sure, the odd one will probably see some time as a backup but if none of them became NHL starters, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least. This was not a good class for puck stoppers.
Bonus: I’ve always been a Levi fan. Yes, he’s small but he stops a lot of pucks and wins a lot of games and no matter your size, that combination is enticing. I think he can be a starter in the NHL and I’m not sure Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is a 1A starter down the road. I’d lean Levi here but a tandem with a 45/37 split or something like that is what I think their long-term preference would be.
Nha Trang: Heh, why not go whole hog? Who wins the Cup this season, and who wins the scoring race?
I’ll even recycle a question from last year, which Brian killed, if you run short of questions: what guy comes out of nowhere to dish out an unexpected career year?
First, thanks for the reminder that sometimes a prediction (Tage Thompson) actually turns out to be right. (For anyone looking for a reminder of the last one that went wrong, just click the link to last weekend’s column at the top of this article as Lou Lamoriello made my guess about the Islanders look bad in a hurry.)
For the scoring race, Connor McDavid has won it four times in the last six seasons. I see no reason for him not to make it five in seven. I don’t want to go with two obvious picks in a row so I’ll go a different road for a Cup winner – how about Carolina? I think they’re a bit weaker now than a year ago but they have a lot of young players with room for improvement to help offset that. They’ll get a top scorer back late in the year to really deepen their attack and their back end is still quite strong. Teams can win without elite goaltending so the Hurricanes could pull it off and it will help that the Metropolitan is probably the easiest division to come out of; while there are a lot of good teams, there aren’t any great ones.
Thompson wasn’t in the top 300 in scoring the year before I picked him to let’s use that as a cut-off point to pick from; anyone above that isn’t really coming out of nowhere anyway. Out of who’s left, Blackhawks winger Taylor Raddysh jumps out (and happens to be the same age as Thompson). He was more or less an afterthought in the Brandon Hagel trade with the two first-rounders getting the attention but he got a bigger role down the stretch and notched 10 points in 21 games after the swap. There’s a good chance he’s in their top six in 2022-23 and with him being one of their younger forwards, he’ll get some leeway if things don’t do well early on. Is he going to have a year like Thompson did last season? Probably not but Raddysh is someone that’s under the radar that could wind up as one of their top scorers.
Snapshots: Kane, White, Red Wings
With the Blackhawks clearly embarking on a large-scale rebuild, there has been an expectation that long-time star winger Patrick Kane will be on the move. However, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports (audio link) that the veteran isn’t interested in being traded this offseason. Instead, if a deal is going to happen, it will come closer to the trade deadline. From a cap standpoint, that would be more palatable for contending teams when three-quarters of his $10.5MM will be paid off. Kane has full control over where he moves but it appears that move won’t be coming for a while yet.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Panthers center Colin White told Ian Mendes of The Athletic (subscription link) that his preference this summer was to sign a one-year contract over pursuing a multi-year agreement on the open market. Some had speculated he’d follow long-time agent Kent Hughes to Montreal and while White mentioned he gave some consideration to doing so, he decided that it was more important to go to a winning team. While White is coming off a pair of injury-plagued seasons, the 25-year-old could be an upside signing for Florida on his one-year, $1.2MM deal.
- While extension talks between the Red Wings and Dylan Larkin clearly haven’t resulted in a new deal yet, MLive’s Ansar Khan believes an agreement, whenever it does get reached, should give the Michigan native maximum term and an AAV in the $8MM range. The 26-year-old isn’t the prototypical number one center from an offensive standpoint as he has never reached the point-per-game mark but he has logged more than 20 minutes a game on average over the past five seasons. If a deal does get done in that price range, it would represent a roughly $2MM increase on what Larkin is making now.
- Robert Mastrosimone’s decision to leave Boston University for Arizona State University raised some eyebrows but Khan notes in a separate column that the Red Wings were on board with the idea of him transferring. The 21-year-old was a second-round pick in 2019 (52nd overall) and was coming off a good season with the Terriers that saw him put up 25 points in 34 games but he should have an opportunity for a bigger role with the Sun Devils next season in the hopes that a good showing will give him an entry-level deal.
2008 NHL Draft Take Two: Third Overall Pick
Hindsight is an amazing thing, and allows us to look back and wonder “what could have been.” Though perfection is attempted, scouting and draft selection is far from an exact science and sometimes, it doesn’t work out the way teams – or players – intended. For every Patrick Kane, there is a Patrik Stefan.
We’re looking back at the 2008 NHL Entry Draft and asking how it would shake out knowing what we do now. Will the first round remain the same, or will some late-round picks jump up to the top of the board?
The results of our redraft so far are as follows with their original draft position in parentheses:
1st Overall: Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning (1)
2nd Overall: Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings (2)
While there were several quality defensemen to choose from, our readers decided to stick with what actually transpired for the Kings’ selection at second overall with nearly half of the votes going to Doughty. Considering the type of impact that Doughty has had over his 14-year career so far, that’s not a shocker and with five years left on his contract, one that was briefly the richest for a defenseman in NHL history, he should be a core performer for Los Angeles for quite a long way to come.
Now, we move on to the third pick which was held by the Atlanta Thrashers.
They opted to make it back-to-back defensemen selected as they picked up Zach Bogosian, a promising two-way rearguard out of Peterborough of the OHL. He also made the jump to the NHL right away as an 18-year-old and didn’t look out of place, logging over 18 minutes a game in his rookie year before reaching the ten-goal mark as a sophomore in a season that saw him jump up over 21 minutes a night. The offensive potential was seemingly being reached while he brought plenty of physicality and shot-blocking to the table. Early on, it looked like Bogosian was living up to his potential.
Unfortunately for Atlanta (and later Winnipeg following the move), Bogosian didn’t really progress too much more. There was an outlier year in his first season with the Jets when he had 25 assists and 30 points but for the most part, he was more of a defensive defenseman. That didn’t stop Winnipeg from handing him a seven-year, $36MM extension in 2013, believing he could still become that two-way defender.
That didn’t happen. Instead, after a couple of injury-riddled seasons, he was moved to Buffalo along with Evander Kane in exchange for a package of younger players headlined by defenseman Tyler Myers and winger Drew Stafford. With the Sabres, things more or less stayed the same for Bogosian – he was more of a defensive defender and was often injured.
With his contract making him a negative-value trade chip, Bogosian cleared waivers and eventually agreed to terminate his deal, allowing him to join Tampa Bay for their Stanley Cup run in a depth role. From there, it was onto Toronto in a depth role before rejoining the Lightning last summer. He still has two years left on his contract with a cap hit just above the league minimum.
All in all, Bogosian hasn’t been the impactful two-way threat he was expected to be but he does sit 16th in games played from this draft class and has been an NHL regular for 14 seasons now.
But was he the right pick for Atlanta or would they have been better off with someone else instead? With the third pick of the 2008 NHL Entry Draft, who should the Atlanta Thrashers select? Cast your vote below.
2008 Redraft: Third Overall
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Roman Josi 46% (657)
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Erik Karlsson 24% (345)
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Alex Pietrangelo 17% (241)
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John Carlson 5% (74)
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Braden Holtby 1% (19)
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Jacob Markstrom 1% (19)
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Cam Atkinson 1% (8)
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Jordan Eberle 1% (8)
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Jared Spurgeon 0% (5)
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T.J. Brodie 0% (5)
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Marco Scandella 0% (5)
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Josh Bailey 0% (4)
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Derek Stepan 0% (4)
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Travis Hamonic 0% (3)
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Gustav Nyquist 0% (3)
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Adam Henrique 0% (3)
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Tyler Ennis 0% (2)
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Michael Del Zotto 0% (2)
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Tyler Myers 0% (2)
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Matt Martin 0% (1)
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Jake Gardiner 0% (1)
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Jake Allen 0% (1)
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Zach Bogosian 0% (1)
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Colin Wilson 0% (1)
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Justin Schultz 0% (0)
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Mikkel Boedker 0% (0)
Total votes: 1,414
(App users, click here to vote.)