Metropolitan Notes: Zucker, Bailey, Hagelin
Jason Zucker’s tenure with the Penguins has been a tough one with the veteran struggling to stay healthy and not being as productive as expected when he has played. With that in mind, some wondered if they’d try to find a home for him this summer. As Dave Molinari of Pittsburgh Hockey Now reports, they did have the opportunity to do so but elected to not pay the high premium it would have cost to do so. The proposal, which is believed to come from a division rival, would have seen the Penguins part with a first-round pick to clear the final year and $5.5MM of his deal off the books while not receiving anything in return. We’ve seen that happen recently with the Sean Monahan trade but it would have been a steep price to pay for Pittsburgh. Interestingly, no team in the division has the money to take on Zucker’s deal outright so this opportunity likely would have come early in the summer before other moves were made.
More from the Metropolitan:
- While some expected the Islanders to move Josh Bailey in order to free up cap space this summer, Arthur Staple of The Athletic reports (subscription link) that the winger was told at the draft that he wouldn’t be getting moved. The 32-year-old managed to record 44 points in 74 games last season but has seen his production taper off over the last few seasons compared to a three-year stretch where he had at least 56 points per season. Bailey has two years left on a contract that carries a $5MM AAV and in this trade market, New York would have been hard-pressed to get top value for his services if they did move him.
- Capitals winger Carl Hagelin took part in informal team skates without needing a no-contact designation, relays Tarik El-Bashir of The Athletic (Twitter link). The veteran has been dealing with an eye injury that has his availability for the upcoming season in question but the fact he’s skating without restriction bodes well for him. The 34-year-old had 14 points in 53 games last season.
Salary Cap Deep Dive: Vancouver Canucks
Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM. Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful. Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.
PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2022-23 season. This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL. All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.
Vancouver Canucks
Current Cap Hit: $85,261,667 (over the $82.5MM Upper Limit)
Entry-Level Contracts
F Nils Hoglander (one year, $891.7K)
F Andrei Kuzmenko (one year, $950K, UFA)
F Vasily Podkolzin (two years, $925K)
Potential Bonuses
Hoglander: $300K
Kuzmenko: $850K
Podkolzin: $850K
Total: $2MM
Kuzmenko had several suitors in the spring following a strong season in the KHL that saw him put up 53 points in 45 games. If he’s able to lock down a spot in the top nine, the Canucks will get a good return on this deal and he’ll have a chance to hit some of his ‘A’ bonuses. Notably, Kuzmenko will be an unrestricted free agent next summer again and obviously, his showing this coming season will dictate the level of interest he gets next time around.
Podkolzin’s first NHL season was a solid one as he was a capable secondary scorer with 26 points in 79 games while mostly playing only at even strength. He should have a similar role in 2022-23 which wouldn’t have him on the trajectory for a pricey second deal; a bridge contract would be the likelier route for him. A similar role will make it tough to reach his ‘A’ bonuses as well. Hoglander took a step back in his sophomore year and dropped down the depth chart. With the extra depth that they’ve brought in, his production will likely be limited, pointing him in the direction of a bridge deal as well that might check in around double his current price tag. He probably won’t hit his ‘A’ bonus but the $87.5K in games played is achievable.
Signed Through 2022-23, Non-Entry-Level
D Kyle Burroughs ($750K, UFA)
D Travis Dermott ($1.5MM, RFA)
F Justin Dowling ($750K, UFA)
F Micheal Ferland ($3.5MM, UFA)
F Bo Horvat ($5.5MM, UFA)
D Brady Keeper ($762.5K, UFA)
D Luke Schenn ($850K, UFA)
Horvat has been a reliable two-way pivot for most of his career and has been playing on a below-market contract for the last few years. That’s likely to change next summer when he’ll be one of the top centers on the open market. Adding a couple million to his current price tag is doable. Ferland missed all of the last two seasons with concussion issues and won’t play this year either. He’ll be on LTIR which will help get Vancouver back into cap compliance. Dowling split last season between the NHL and AHL and is the type of depth player that could stick around for another couple of years at the minimum.
Dermott has had a quiet couple of seasons now and this feels like a make-or-break situation for him. If he can establish himself as a capable secondary producer from the back end and stabilize the third pairing, he could land a small raise next summer beyond his $1.75MM qualifying offer. If not, he’s a non-tender candidate. Schenn showed himself to be capable of being a regular on the back end last season after being more of a reserve player and that could generate a stronger market next summer and push him past the $1MM mark. Keeper and Burroughs will be battling for a spot at the end of the roster but both are players that will be unlikely to land much beyond the minimum on their next contracts.
Signed Through 2023-24
F Jason Dickinson ($2.65MM, UFA)
G Spencer Martin ($762.5K, UFA)
D Tyler Myers ($6MM, UFA)
F Tanner Pearson ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Elias Pettersson ($7.35MM, UFA)
D Jack Rathbone ($825K, RFA)
Pettersson opted for a bridge contract last summer which helped Vancouver to stay cap-compliant and give them a little more flexibility in the short term. However, the contract is significantly backloaded and carries a qualifying offer of $8.82MM next summer (the lower of 120% of the AAV or the final year’s salary of $10.25MM). At this point, the 23-year-old is well on his way to being worth that qualifying amount but the Canucks will likely need to come in above that to get him to commit to a long-term agreement. Otherwise, he could simply opt to take the minimum offer and test the open market in 2025. Horvat’s deal is the priority right now but Pettersson’s situation looms large from a planning perspective.
Pearson improved upon his performance from the year before but it was still a notch below how he did in his first full season with the Canucks. On its own, the contract isn’t an overpayment but the market has been tight for middle-six wingers lately so there’s no guarantee he’ll be able to get that two years from now. Dickinson’s first season with Vancouver was a disaster. Brought in to be the third-line center, he instead struggled mightily, putting up the worst full-season numbers of his career. At this point, he’s a candidate to be waived in training camp (which would still leave a lingering $1.525MM cap charge).
Myers hasn’t lived up to his contract from a value standpoint but he has logged some heavy minutes in a top-three role since joining the Canucks three years ago. His offensive game has tailed off which won’t help his market two years from now but he should still be able to land a multi-year deal in the $4MM range in 2024. Rathbone is another player that will be in the mix for a roster spot with Vancouver in training camp and notably received a one-way deal for both years despite having limited NHL experience. He has the offensive ability to put up some numbers that could quickly escalate his salary two years from now if he’s able to lock down a regular role in the lineup.
Martin has very limited NHL experience with just nine appearances under his belt, six of which came last season where he did well enough to earn the backup nod. If the 27-year-old can establish himself as a capable full-time backup based on performance and not his contract, there will be an opportunity to add a couple of million or more on his next deal.
Signed Through 2024-25
F Brock Boeser ($6.65MM, UFA)
F Curtis Lazar ($1MM, UFA)
D Tucker Poolman ($2.5MM, UFA)
Boeser’s case was one that had some pressure on it earlier this summer when the qualifying offer deadline was getting close. In the end, he took less than that number ($7.5MM) in exchange for a three-year commitment. Boeser produced closer to the level of a second-liner last season and if that continues, this could wind up being an above-market contract. Lazar comes over after spending last season with Boston on their fourth line and he’ll likely have the same role with Vancouver. There really isn’t much risk with this deal; $1MM for a capable fourth liner is a fair price.
Poolman is someone whose availability is certainly in question as he continues to try to work his way back from a concussion. When healthy, he is an option for the third pairing but if he’s unable to start the season, he could go on LTIR and simplify Vancouver’s short-term salary cap situation.
Snapshots: Penguins, Vikman, Jenner
With nine defensemen on their roster, it would appear at first glance that the Penguins might be a team to watch for on the trade front. Team president Brian Burke acknowledged to Dave Molinari of Pittsburgh Hockey Now that there are some teams calling to inquire about their blueliners although, for the time being, there aren’t any active trade discussions. Prospect Pierre-Olivier Joseph is now waiver-eligible and likely wouldn’t sneak through and while Ty Smith is exempt from hitting the waiver wire, they didn’t acquire him from New Jersey for John Marino simply to play him in the minors. While there’s nothing on the front-burner now, there’s a good reason to think that Pittsburgh could be moving a defenseman at some point over the next month.
Elsewhere around the NHL:
- While Golden Knights prospect Jesper Vikman is eligible to turn pro and play in their minor league system this season, it’s expected that he’ll be returned to WHL Vancouver, notes Steve Ewen of the Vancouver Province. The 20-year-old was a fifth-round pick by Vegas back in 2020 and had a decent start to his major junior career with a 3.05 GAA and a .903 SV% in 35 games with the Giants. While the Golden Knights might benefit from a bit of extra depth in their farm system with some of the uncertainty that they have between the pipes, sending him back would likely be best for his development.
- Blue Jackets center Boone Jenner told Aaron Portzline of The Athletic (subscription link) that he has fully recovered from the back injury that cost him the final 23 games of last season. Jenner has missed time with back trouble in three different seasons now but all three have been in different areas. The 29-year-old had 44 points in 59 games last season while logging over 20 minutes per night for the first time in his career and he will undoubtedly be a welcome return for a Columbus team that is looking to turn their fortunes around quickly following the addition of Johnny Gaudreau this summer.
Five Key Stories: 8/29/22 – 9/4/22
As the calendar has flipped to September, activity has started to pick up around the league with training camps on the horizon as some notable signings headline our key stories.
Vegas Adds A Goalie: With Robin Lehner out for the year, Vegas was looking at entering the season with a tandem of Logan Thompson and Laurent Brossoit, who is coming back from hip trouble. GM Kelly McCrimmon spent some of his increased flexibility to add Phil Kessel earlier and then used most of what was left this past week to add another option between the pipes, acquiring Adin Hill from San Jose in exchange for a fourth-round pick. The 26-year-old had an okay first season with the Sharks, posting a 2.66 GAA with a .906 SV% in 25 games in an injury-riddled year. He has one year left on his contract with a $2.175MM AAV and while he has just 74 career NHL games under his belt, he’ll give the Golden Knights another viable option as they look to get back to the playoffs without a true number one netminder.
Keeping Their Coach: Mike Sullivan had two more years left on his contract so there was no immediate need to work on a new deal. However, that didn’t stop the Penguins from locking up their bench boss as they handed him a three-year extension to keep him under contract through the 2026-27 campaign. Sullivan has been behind the bench since December 2015, making him the second-longest tenured coach in the NHL behind Tampa Bay’s Jon Cooper. In that time, Pittsburgh has a 297-156-54 record (.639 points percentage) while winning a pair of Stanley Cups in 2016 and 2017. The Penguins have had stability behind the bench for a while and with this move, that won’t be changing anytime soon.
Seven For Thompson: Tage Thompson was one of the biggest surprises in the NHL last season. After recording just 18 goals and 17 assists in his first 145 games, he exploded offensively in 2021-22 with 38 goals and 30 assists in 68 contests to lead the Sabres in scoring. While Buffalo could have waited to see if he could sustain those numbers this coming season, they’ve instead given him a significant vote of confidence, handing him a seven-year, $50MM extension that will begin in 2023-24 and buys out five seasons of UFA eligibility. It’s a deal that certainly carries some risk if the 24-year-old takes a step back offensively, but if his performance is a sign of things to come, the Sabres will have their top a big piece of the puzzle locked up for the long haul.
Bridge For Oettinger: With Dallas not having a ton of cap space at their disposal and the fact that Jake Oettinger only had just 77 career NHL appearances, a bridge deal was the expected outcome for the restricted free agent. In the end, that’s exactly what happened as the two sides agreed to a three-year, $12MM agreement that will keep the 23-year-old RFA eligible at its expiration with a $4.8MM qualifying offer. Oettinger started last season in the minors but quickly ascended to the starting role after being recalled in November, posting a 2.53 GAA along with a .914 SV% before a stellar performance against Calgary in the playoffs which nearly allowed them to pull off the seven-game upset. With this deal done, the Stars will now turn their focus to RFA winger Jason Robertson.
Sticking Around: For the better part of a year, Canucks center J.T. Miller had been the subject of trade speculation with the team believed to have gone fairly deep into discussions with other teams. But the whole time, both parties said they wanted to find a way to get an extension in place and they were able to do just that as the veteran signed a seven-year, $56MM deal that will begin in 2023-24. The 29-year-old is coming off a dominant season that saw him record 99 points, good for ninth in the league. $8MM for a top center isn’t overly expensive from an AAV perspective if Miller is able to maintain close to that level of production although signing him through his age-37 season will carry some risk. Even so, Vancouver has their top pivot locked up for the long haul as they look to get back to playoff contention.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Snapshots: McLeod, Red Wings, Boudreau
With the Oilers having minimal cap flexibility (as it is, they likely need to clear money), Kurt Leavins of the Edmonton Journal believes that RFA center Ryan McLeod will ultimately be forced to take a one-year contract. The 22-year-old had 21 points in 71 games last season but doesn’t have much leverage on his side as it’s unlikely he’ll be offer-sheeted while the bulk of his NHL experience is from 2021-22. Accordingly, Leavins posits that a one-year agreement might check in just above the league minimum which would help Edmonton’s cap situation but also give him arbitration rights next summer.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- The Red Wings have invited prospect Ivan Ivan to rookie camp, the youngster confirmed to Bob Duff of Detroit Hockey Now. The 20-year-old went undrafted back in July despite a strong season with Cape Breton of the QMJHL where he had 31 goals and 34 assists in 65 games. Ivan most recently suited up for the Czechs at the World Juniors last month and is eligible to play in the pros this season so even if he can’t earn an entry-level contract with Detroit, an AHL deal could still be a possibility.
- Last season, Bruce Boudreau was the toast of the town in Vancouver as the new bench boss nearly led the Canucks to an improbable playoff appearance. Despite that, Adam Proteau of The Hockey News posits that the head coach is squarely on the hot seat for 2022-23. The team is clearly in win-now mode and has returned its core from last season with a couple of additions and he wasn’t picked by current management as he was installed behind the bench before Patrik Allvin took over as GM. Allvin declined to offer a contract extension after the season so Boudreau instead will coach on the final year of his deal. Those factors will certainly put pressure on him early and often.
Snapshots: Miller, Sabres, Oettinger
As part of his seven-year, $56MM contract that was signed yesterday, Canucks forward J.T. Miller received a full no-move clause. That in itself isn’t noteworthy but he was eligible to have it apply to the upcoming season as part of the contract as well since he’s of UFA age. However, CapFriendly reports (Twitter link) that this was not the case. As a result, Miller does not have any sort of trade protection between now and July 1st when the NMC kicks in so if things don’t do well next season or Vancouver decides to shake things up, Miller will be trade-eligible even with his new deal in place.
Elsewhere around the hockey world:
- Sabres GM Kevyn Adams told Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News that part of the reason they weren’t overly active in free agency this summer was to give them the flexibility to extend their internal core as their contracts come up. We saw an example of that recently with the seven-year agreement with center Tage Thompson while Dylan Cozens is a year away from a pricey new deal of his own; Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, and Peyton Krebs are extension-eligible next summer. If Adams intends to work out long-term deals with all of those players, they’ll need all the flexibility they can get so their discipline this summer will be worth it later.
- While Jake Oettinger ultimately settled for a three-year, $12MM bridge deal, the netminder told reporters including Matthew DeFranks of the Dallas Morning News that has made it clear to his representatives that he wants to stay in Dallas for the long haul. The contract still represents quite the raise for someone that actually spent a month in the minors last season before being recalled for good in mid-November and his AAV will get a notable bump three years from now as he’ll be owed a $4.8MM qualifying offer.
Classifying The Remaining Restricted Free Agents
When the calendar flips to September, it’s time to start paying some attention to who’s left unsigned in restricted free agency. Usually at this point, two months have elapsed since the start of free agency (it’s six weeks this summer) which is typically more than enough time to get a deal done.
There are currently 13 remaining RFAs that haven’t signed elsewhere for next season. As is usually the case, those players can be grouped into a few tiers which are as follows.
Star Players
Jason Robertson (Dallas)
Generally speaking, there are usually more players in this group at this time but the 23-year-old is the only star player in need of a new deal. He’s coming off a 41-goal campaign that has the asking price justifiably high – team owner Tom Gaglardi acknowledged it’s in the $7MM range. The Stars would likely prefer to do a long-term deal that buys out some UFA years but that could push the AAV past $9MM and they don’t have the cap space to do that. At this point, what GM Jim Nill does or doesn’t do on the trade front might dictate what ultimately happens with Robertson; if they can free up some money, a long-term agreement becomes palatable but otherwise, it’ll almost certainly be a bridge contract.
Underachieving Former First Rounders
Erik Brannstrom (Ottawa), Kirby Dach (Montreal), Barrett Hayton (Arizona), Rasmus Sandin (Toronto)
Dach and Hayton were both top-five picks in their respective draft classes but have yet to show the type of offensive consistency to put them in the category of core players. Dach was traded to Montreal at the draft after a quiet season that saw him put up nine goals and 26 points, both career-highs. Despite that, it appears that the Canadiens are at least pondering a medium-term agreement that would run for four years but still leave him RFA-eligible at the end. Something a little shorter in the $2.5MM range is also an option. Hayton has just this last season in terms of being a regular under his belt and could fit in a different category than this but his performance relative to draft stock has been concerning. He’s a prime candidate for a bridge contract and with fewer than 100 NHL games under his belt, he simply doesn’t have the leverage to command anything longer. A two-year deal around the $2MM range should be where his deal falls.
As for Brannstrom, he was billed as an offensive defender but has yet to be able to produce with any consistency since joining Ottawa back in 2019. He has just two career goals in 116 career games but that hasn’t stopped his camp from seeking a multi-year agreement in negotiations which are likely playing a role in this delay. Sandin could also fit in a different category but the 2018 first-rounder has exhausted his waiver exemption and doesn’t appear to be a fit in their top six next season. His agent recently bemoaned the lack of progress in negotiations. Teammate Timothy Liljegren’s two-year bridge deal that has a $1.4MM AAV seems like a reasonable comparable but with playing time being a potential concern, might Sandin be looking for more certainty before putting pen to paper on a new deal?
Young Regulars
Michael Anderson (Los Angeles), Alex Formenton (Ottawa), Nicolas Hague (Vegas)
Formenton played his first full NHL season in 2021-22 and it was a good one as the 22-year-old speedster chipped in with 18 goals and 14 assists in 78 games. The Sens have ample cap space this coming season so there are some options beyond the bridge contract. If GM Pierre Dorion thinks that Formenton is part of their long-term core, a longer-term pact that buys out a UFA year or two in the $3.5MM range might be a better way for them to go.
Hague has done well in a limited role on the back end for the Golden Knights over the past two seasons and is coming off a year where he logged close to 19 minutes a night. They’ve already spent most of the LTIR ‘savings’ so Vegas isn’t in a spot to give him a long-term deal. But is Hague better off taking a one-year contract that would be below market value to acquire arbitration eligibility next summer? Such a deal would be in the $1.25MM range with the promise of a better payout later on. Otherwise, a bridge pact that’s closer to $2MM is probably in the cards. Anderson has logged over 20 minutes a night for the Kings for the last two years but doesn’t have the offensive numbers to support a pricey bridge deal. Los Angeles’ cap space is quite limited so, like Hague, a one-year deal in the $1.25MM range might be where they wind up settling.
Not Fully Established
Sean Durzi (Los Angeles), Ryan McLeod (Edmonton)
McLeod figures to be a part of the long-term plans for the Oilers after a promising rookie campaign but doesn’t have much leverage at this point. Edmonton’s issue here is cap space as they’re already in a spot where they need to clear money out. If they can move someone out, a multi-year bridge contract becomes their preferred route but otherwise, he’s a strong candidate for a one-year deal around that $1.25MM threshold as well, perhaps a tad below that.
Durzi quietly put up 27 points in 64 games last season but it’s his only taste of NHL action so the track record isn’t strong enough to command a sizable contract. A two-year bridge deal makes a lot of sense for him as a repeat performance over that stretch would have him well-positioned to seek $4MM or more two summers from now. However, with the cap situation for the Kings, they might be forced to push for the one-year, ‘prove it’ contract that would fall in the same range as Anderson.
What’s The Holdup?
Cayden Primeau (Montreal), Adam Ruzicka (Calgary), Parker Wotherspoon (NY Islanders)
Ruzicka played in 28 games last season for the Flames and did reasonably well with ten points but it’s not as if he’s in a position to command a sizable raise. He’s waiver-eligible but not a guarantee to be claimed if he passes through. The holdup might be along the lines of making next season a one-way or two-way contract with any subsequent season(s) being a one-way agreement. Even so, it’s odd this is taking so long.
Wotherspoon’s presence on here is arguably the most perplexing of the bunch. He opted to not file for salary arbitration which would have gotten him signed weeks ago. He has cleared waivers in each of the last two seasons and has yet to play an NHL game. Haggling over NHL money would be pointless as a result so accordingly, it’s safe to suggest his NHL pay would be $750K. At this point, AHL salary or guaranteed money is the only sticking point. In all likelihood, the gap probably can’t be more than around $25K which is a pretty small one to justify being unsigned this long.
Primeau is coming off a strong showing in the AHL playoffs but struggled mightily in limited NHL action with the Canadiens last season. Even so, he’s viewed as their potential backup of the future as soon as 2023-24 when he becomes waiver-eligible. This is a contract that should be a two-way pact next season and then one-way after that as a result and there are enough of those comparable contracts around the league for young goalies that the general framework should basically have been in place before talks even started. As a result, this is another case that feels like it should have been resolved weeks ago.
There’s still plenty of time to work something out with training camps still a couple of weeks away and several of these players should come off the board by then but there will likely be a handful still unsigned when camps get underway.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Pacific Notes: Moore, Samorukov, Keeper
Trevor Moore was one of the bright spots for the Kings last season as he broke out with 48 points in 81 after putting up 41 in his first 123 NHL contests. He’s under contract for the upcoming season at a below-market $1.875MM and is eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer for the first time. Eric Stephens of The Athletic suggests (subscription link) that if the team feels that this type of production is a sign of things to come, offering the 27-year-old a shorter-term extension in the $3MM range might be enough to get something done. The UFA market hasn’t been kind to middle-six wingers lately and Moore’s limited track record at this point doesn’t help from a leverage standpoint so that type of offer might be good enough to get him to commit early.
More from the Pacific Division:
- Dmitri Samorukov’s NHL debut with the Oilers last season was one to forget. He played 2:28 of the first period, was on the ice for two goals allowed, and then was on the bench the rest of the way before being quickly sent down to the minors. However, Bruce McCurdy of the Edmonton Journal points out that despite the fact that his NHL experience is limited to that one appearance, Edmonton might be hesitant to try to sneak the 23-year-old through waivers next month in training camp. After all, young defensemen with some size at a low price tag ($775K) are often appealing to rebuilding teams which could result in him breaking camp with the team over someone like Philip Broberg who remains waiver-exempt.
- Canucks defenseman Brady Keeper has fully recovered from the broken leg he sustained back in training camp, notes Patrick Johnston of the Vancouver Province. The 26-year-old signed with Vancouver as an unrestricted free agent last summer and had a chance to push for a spot on the roster but instead, he wound up missing the entire year. Depending on Tucker Poolman’s availability, Keeper could have a chance to push for the sixth or seventh spot on the back end in training camp.
Extension Candidate: Bo Horvat
One down, one to go. That’s the situation that the Canucks find themselves in when it comes to their impact 2023 unrestricted free agents. J.T. Miller is now off the board after signing a seven-year, $56MM extension on Friday which allows them to now turn their focus to re-signing captain Bo Horvat.
It’s telling that while Miller had been in all sorts of trade speculation in the days, weeks, and even months leading up to his eventual extension, it has been the exact opposite for Horvat. There has long been an expectation that the two sides would work something out and discussions are ongoing according to Sportsnet’s Iain MacIntyre. But what might a new deal look like?
2021-22
Horvat quietly is coming off a career year in the goal department, surpassing the 30-goal mark for the first time in his career. It didn’t affect his defensive game too much as he still took a regular turn on the penalty kill, logged nearly 20 minutes per night, and won the sixth-most faceoffs in the league. Notably, over the final six weeks of the season when Vancouver was in the midst of trying to pull off quite the second-half comeback to get into the playoffs, Horvat was better than a point-per-game player, showing an ability to step up in crucial moments. While they ultimately fell a little short of achieving that goal, it certainly wasn’t his fault while the improved production under Bruce Boudreau creates some optimism for what’s to come.
Statistics
2021-22: 70 GP, 31 goals, 21 assists, 52 points, +3 rating, 40 PIMS, 194 shots, 57.0% faceoffs, 19:31 ATOI
Career: 572 GP, 170 goals, 196 assists, 366 points, -68 rating, 188 PIMS, 1,294 shots, 53.6% faceoffs, 18:20 ATOI
The Market
Center has always been the premium position among the three forward spots with the extra responsibilities that are always placed on a middleman. Horvat has more than handled those challenges well and certainly isn’t the type of player that a team could think about moving to the wing. Plain and simple, he’s a center and top centers get paid big bucks in free agency or, at least, when they become eligible for free agency.
Last season was basically a continuation of what Horvat has been in his career. He doesn’t necessarily produce like a number one center does but with all of the other elements he brings to the table, he gets to the level of a low-end number one or a high-end number two. There is enough of an established marketplace for players like that to get a reasonable idea of what Horvat’s next deal is going to cost.
Comparable Contracts
Sean Couturier (Philadelphia) signed an eight-year, $62MM extension ($7.75MM AAV) a little over a year ago in the same spot that Horvat is now, a year away from UFA eligibility. From a points-per-game perspective, they’re nearly identical (.638 for Couturier, .639 for Horvat) while both players have averaged close to 20 minutes per game in recent seasons while playing in all situations. Couturier’s top offensive years have been better than Horvat’s which is worth noting although Horvat will be beginning his next deal at 28, one year younger than Couturier.
Brayden Schenn (St. Louis) is playing on an eight-year, $52MM deal ($6.5MM AAV) that was signed back in 2019. His five-on-five production has been quite close to Horvat over the past few seasons but it’s worth noting that he doesn’t have the same defensive responsibilities that Horvat does. The current-day equivalent of this contract is $6.584MM and with the extra roles that Horvat has, it’s safe to pencil this contract in as the floor when it comes to extension discussions.
Kevin Hayes (Philadelphia) received a bigger contract than many expected back in 2019 when he signed for seven years and $50MM ($7.142MM AAV). He was coming off a career-best 55 points that summer and also was an all-situations player that often was on the second line offensively like Horvat. Since then, his production has tapered off so Horvat’s camp would likely be looking to come in higher than this rate. From a cap percentage perspective, a deal equal to this is worth just over $7.4MM per season today.
Tomas Hertl (San Jose) signed his extension last season, one that was worth $65.1MM over eight years ($8.1375MM AAV). He’s the same age Horvat is now and only has one more 30-goal season that Horvat does. The two were used very similarly last season and Hertl’s career point per game average (.661) is quite close to Horvat’s. Some feel that this was an overpayment on the part of the Sharks but that doesn’t matter for Horvat’s camp who will undoubtedly be using this deal as a comparable in negotiations. This is the high end of the scale for where his next contract should fall.
Dylan Larkin (Detroit) is also one to watch for but we don’t know his next contract yet as he’s in the same situation as Horvat. The two are fairly similar – Larkin is a bit more productive, Horvat more involved defensively – and whichever one doesn’t sign first will quite likely be looking at the contract of the one that does sign as a viable comparable.
Projected Contract
Based on the above comparables, something above the current equivalent of Hayes’ deal and a little below Couturier’s appears to be a reasonable sweet spot for an agreement. That would put the AAV in the $7.5MM (or slightly higher) range and he should be able to command a max-term agreement, either an eight-year one with Vancouver or a seven-year one elsewhere.
The big question that Canucks GM Patrik Allvin will have to ponder is whether they can afford Horvat’s next deal in their cap structure. Miller checks in at $8MM on his new deal which pushes their commitment in 2023-24 to nearly $69MM to 14 players. The Upper Limit is only expected to go up to $83.5MM for 2024-24 so Horvat would be taking up close to 60% of their remaining space. Fitting everyone else in would be a challenge.
Vancouver also has to keep in mind that Elias Pettersson’s qualifying offer two years from now is $8.82MM (120% of his $7.35MM cap hit). While Pettersson has spent a lot of time on the wing, he’s also a natural center and spending over $24MM on three centers could be a luxury that they can’t afford. That shouldn’t affect Horvat’s specific situation unless he’s willing to leave money on the table to stay but they’ll be factoring in their own cap situation in discussions with their captain over the coming weeks and months.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Central Notes: Robertson, Blackhawks, Kayumov
There has been a greater emphasis on paying young stars big money early in recent years and it would appear that at least one team owner isn’t a fan of that. Speaking on the Cam and Strick Podcast (audio link) earlier this week, Stars owner Tom Gaglardi lamented the current contract landscape across the league:
A kid in the third year of his entry-level (deal) puts up 40 goals and now he wants to make $7 million. If you want term with that player, he’s going to take you higher than that. … The stars are taking all the money, and the guys in the middle are getting squeezed.
I think there’s a lot of players in the league making a million dollars who are better players, and then the guys who can put the puck in the net are getting too big a piece of the pie. … I don’t like it, but that’s the market, and that’s the way it works.
While not naming him specifically, it’s quite clear that the 40-goal player he’s referencing is Jason Robertson who led the Stars with 41 goals in 74 games last season. If the asking price on a short-term deal is in the $7MM range as Gaglardi suggests, Dallas will almost certainly have to do a bridge deal to get the 23-year-old under contract without having to part with another player. They have a little over $6.3MM in projected room at the moment, per CapFriendly, but that could jump closer to $7.5MM if Anton Khudobin is healthy and is sent to the minors.
Elsewhere in the Central Division:
- There is some uncertainty on the injury front for the Blackhawks with training camps just a few weeks away. GM Kyle Davidson told Ben Pope of the Chicago Sun-Times that they are still waiting for a firm update on the status of forward Jujhar Khaira who underwent back surgery back in February. At the time, he was supposed to be away from hockey activities for 10-12 weeks so the fact that his availability is still in question would suggest that there has been a setback. The 28-year-old had three goals in 27 games in his first season with the Blackhawks. Davidson also indicated that there are a couple of other players that they’re waiting for information on regarding their availability for the start of camp but didn’t identify who those players will be.
- Still with Chicago, the Blackhawks were hoping to sign prospect Artur Kayumov this summer, reports Scott Powers of The Athletic (subscription link). However, the 24-year-old winger opted to remain with Yaroslavl of the KHL citing family reasons as he signed a one-year deal to stay there instead. Kayumov had 19 points in 42 games last season and his agent indicated that there’s a chance he could sign with the Blackhawks following the KHL campaign.