Archives for September 2024

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  Next up is the Metropolitan Division, beginning with Carolina.

Carolina Hurricanes

Current Cap Hit: $87,920,087 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Bradly Nadeau (three years, $918.3K)

Nadeau might have a chance to make the team out of training camp.  He turned pro after a solid freshman year at college, even making his NHL debut while spending the playoffs as a Black Ace in Carolina.  Given that his NHL career spans just one game so far, it’s far too early to project his next contract.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

G Frederik Andersen ($3.4MM, UFA)
D Brent Burns ($5.28MM, UFA)*
F Jesper Fast ($2.4MM, UFA)
F Tyson Jost ($775K, UFA)
F Brendan Lemieux ($775K, UFA)
G Spencer Martin ($775K, UFA)
D Dmitry Orlov ($7.75MM, UFA)
F Eric Robinson ($950K, UFA)
F Jack Roslovic ($2.8MM, UFA)

*-San Jose is retaining another $2.72MM on Burns’ contract.

Roslovic is coming off a down year, one which saw him notch just nine goals and 22 assists in 59 games between the Blue Jackets and Rangers.  Rather than trying to sign a multi-year agreement, he opted for a one-year deal to try to rebuild his value.  He’ll need to get back to the 40-point range if he wants to come close to the $4MM he made on his last deal.  Fast, meanwhile, is already out for the season after neck surgery which won’t help his cause heading to the open market.  A capable bottom-six winger, he’ll likely have to settle for a one-year deal to show he’s healthy.  Although he’ll only be 33 next summer, he will be eligible for performance bonuses since he has played more than 400 NHL games and will be out for the entire year; it wouldn’t be surprising to see a team or two try to use that to their advantage in an offer.

Robinson split last season between Columbus and Buffalo and didn’t fare particularly well.  However, with two seasons of double-digit goals before that, he was able to secure more than the minimum this time around.  He’ll need to get back to that this season or else he could fall into the tier of players settling for the minimum salary.  That’s where Lemieux and Jost already find themselves and barring a significant change in their fortunes this season, they’re likely to remain around that mark.

Orlov elected to take a short-term, above-market deal last summer, positioning himself for potentially another multi-year agreement in what should be a more favorable environment.  However, he had a much more limited role than many expected last season and if he remains in the fourth or fifth slot, the price tag on his contract, might start with a four instead of a seven.  Burns has fit in quite well since being acquired and is still logging big minutes.  At some point, that’s going to change but if he wants to, he could hang around for another year or two even though he’ll turn 40 in March.  It stands to reason that he’ll be going year-to-year at that point, but a $5MM price tag for next season shouldn’t be out of the question.

Andersen dealt with a blood clot issue for a big chunk of last season but was dominant in the limited action he had.  That’s too small of a sample size to make a forecast from but his career numbers have him in the higher-end second-string range or lower-end starter (thanks to durability concerns).  That could be worth a small raise but as he turns 35, he’s a candidate to take a slightly lesser deal in exchange for a multi-year agreement.  Martin projects to be the third-string option but was a full-time NHL player last season thanks to some waiver claims.  With a salary at the minimum, he could be a candidate to be claimed should the Hurricanes try to send him down.  He’ll need to play more frequently to have a shot at a seven-figure deal next summer.

Signed Through 2025-26

F Jack Drury ($1.725MM, RFA)
F Martin Necas ($6.5MM, UFA)

Necas was a speculative trade candidate for most of the offseason and frankly, this contract probably didn’t do too much to dispel that.  A legitimate top-six forward, he will now be positioned to hit the open market at 27, an opportunity few impact players have.  If he can get back to the 70-point range that he reached in 2022-23, he could command upwards of $8MM on the open market.  Drury established himself as a full-timer last season while being a weapon at the faceoff dot.  A productive scorer in the minors, he’ll need to find another gear offensively to have a shot at commanding more impactful money.  Notably, his qualifying offer checks in slightly lower than this at $1.675MM.

Signed Through 2026-27

D Jalen Chatfield ($3MM, UFA)
D Shayne Gostisbehere ($3.2MM, UFA)
G Pyotr Kochetkov ($2MM, UFA)
F Jordan Martinook ($3.05MM, UFA)
F Jordan Staal ($2.9MM, UFA)

After being more of a limited player in his first few seasons with the Hurricanes, Martinook has become a capable secondary scorer while playing a sound defensive game.  He’s still a role player in the grand scheme of things but he’s an upper-end third liner now which helped him earn a $1.25MM raise from last season.  Staal took a more than 50% drop in salary last year to remain in Carolina while getting a four-year agreement that takes him to his age-38 season.  By that time, he’ll likely have a more limited role so if he signs another deal, it could be at a lower price point once again.

Gostisbehere opted for a pay cut but some stability after playing on a one-year deal a year ago.  He remains a capable offensive defenseman who will give some of that production back at the other end.  However, with Burns potentially on the way out after the upcoming season, Gostisbehere could be in line for some more impressive offensive stats.  Chatfield has worked his way from being a depth defender to one who is more of an every-game regular.  $3MM is on the higher side for someone in a number six role but given the scarcity of right-shot defenders on the open market this past summer, he likely was getting it from someone if not Carolina.

Kochetkov’s contract was one of the more interesting ones given to a goalie in recent years.  At the time he signed it, he had primarily played in the minors though he showed some promising signs in limited NHL action.  Even last season, the first year of that deal, saw Kochetkov spend some time in the AHL.  But they’re banking on him playing at a backup level at a minimum and at this point, it looks like he’ll be able to do that at the very least.  If he can land higher on the depth chart and take over as the full-fledged starter (or perhaps more likely, the strong side of a platoon), Carolina will get a terrific return on this agreement.

Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Sebastian Aho ($9.75MM through 2031-32)
F William Carrier ($2MM through 2029-30)
F Seth Jarvis ($7.42MM through 2031-32)
F Jesperi Kotkaniemi ($4.82MM through 2029-30)
D Jaccob Slavin ($5.3MM in 2024-25, $6.396MM from 2025-26 through 2032-33)
F Andrei Svechnikov ($7.75MM through 2028-29)
D Sean Walker ($3.6MM through 2028-29)

While Montreal’s offer sheet to Aho in the past was one Carolina easily matched, the one thing it did was put Aho in a position to reach UFA eligibility early which helped him land this agreement.  He has averaged just over a point per game over the last six seasons combined and is a legitimate number one center.  With the rising costs for impact middlemen, this deal is in line with many of those.  Svechnikov bypassed the bridge contract to sign this agreement with the hopes it’d be a bargain as the deal progresses.  When healthy, he performs as a top-line level but he has missed considerable time for two straight years now which means it’s not a team-friendly pact just yet but is heading in that direction.

The deal with Jarvis took some time to put together this summer and for good reason.  The sense is that the Hurricanes wanted to keep Svechnikov’s contract as the high point in discussions while Jarvis’ camp wanted more than that.  They eventually found a happy medium as he will receive an average of $7.9MM per season (more than Svechnikov) but with $15.67MM in deferrals, the cap hit is lower than Svechnikov’s, meaning both sides got what they wanted.  Jarvis only has one season above 40 points but that was 2023-24 when he had 67; clearly, both sides are banking on there being more to come.  The deal might be a bit above market at the start but should be a team-friendly pact before long.

Carolina was hoping that Kotkaniemi’s deal would follow that path but it hasn’t yet.  Even after accepting a pay cut following an inflated one-year offer sheet that Montreal elected not to match, the 2018 third-overall pick is now six years into his career but is still more of a bottom-six player than a top-six core element.  Still just 24, that could change yet but the odds of that happening are starting to lessen.  Carrier was an effective energy player for seven years in Vegas and opted for stability over trying to necessarily maximize his earnings with this contract.  Six years is risky for a role player but the AAV is low enough to largely mitigate that.

Slavin has quietly been a high-end defender for several years but has largely flown under the radar.  What limited him to an extent with his new contract is that he isn’t a high-end offensive threat which capped the overall upside.  Still, it would be fair to say that he left money on the table with the new agreement that starts next season and not just because there is a bit of deferred money in there as well.  Had he hit the open market next summer, an AAV starting with a seven and possibly an eight would have been doable.

Walker went from being a salary dump last summer to a quality top-four piece with Philadelphia and Colorado but the fact he wound up with less than $4MM a year suggests there was some skepticism that he could repeat that.  That should work in Carolina’s favor as even if he holds down a number four role for most of this contract, they should get good value from it.  If Walker can be as impactful as he was last season throughout the agreement, this will be a steal in a hurry.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Kochetkov
Worst Value: Kotkaniemi

Looking Ahead

Money is going to be tight for Carolina this season as they’re likely to be right up against the Upper Limit.  Fast being LTIR-eligible will buy them some wiggle room when injuries strike but since cap space can’t be banked when a team is using it, they’re going to be a money-in, money-out team in 2024-25.

The Hurricanes have more longer-term money on the books than a lot of teams with over $64MM in commitments in 2025-26, nearly $56MM in 2026-27, and just under $42MM in 2027-28.  That said, there are enough contracts coming off the books those years to give GM Eric Tulsky some flexibility to tweak the core by re-signing or replacing those pieces but it might be a while before they’re able to make a big addition to strengthen what they already have.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.