Click here to read a transcript of this week’s live chat with PHR’s Gavin Lee.
Archives for August 2018
Arizona Coyotes Sign Christian Dvorak To Six-Year Extension
The Arizona Coyotes have made it clear that Christian Dvorak is going to be a part of their plans for a long time, signing him today to a six-year contract extension. The deal kicks in for the 2019-20 season and will carry Dvorak to unrestricted free agents in the summer of 2025. The 22-year old forward is entering the final year of his entry-level contract, and was eligible to sign an extension on July 1st. CapFriendly reports that the deal will carry a $4.45MM cap hit, meaning the total extension is worth $26.7MM. Arizona GM John Chayka included a statement:
We are very pleased to sign Christian to a long-term contract. Christian is a highly skilled, reliable, two-way center who continues to improve each season. He will be a key player for us in the future and we are thrilled to have him with us for the next seven seasons.
Dvorak was originally selected 58th overall by the Coyotes in 2014, but returned to the OHL for two more seasons to round out his game at the junior level. In those years, paired mostly with Mitch Marner (and often either Max Domi or Matthew Tkachuk) Dvorak became a dominant offense player and recorded 230 points in just 125 regular season games. He added 35 points en route to an OHL Championship and Memorial Cup in 2015-16 as team captain, before jumping straight to the NHL the following season. While some doubted that Dvorak could produce goals and points away from Marner and the other talented players on the London Knights roster, he scored 15 goals and 33 points as a rookie on a bad Arizona team and performed better admirably in the role that he was given.
Unfortunately Dvorak failed to take another step forward offensively in 2017-18, scoring just 15 goals again and recording 37 points despite increased ice time. While he took substantial strides in his defensive and faceoff work, his upside in the offense zone was capped and his powerplay production was underwhelming even with ample opportunity. No longer a rookie, there were higher expectations of the young forward that he didn’t quite reach in the eyes of many. Apparently not in those of the front office though, as the team has signed him long before it was necessary in an attempt to get him under contract before a potential breakout. There’s little chance he could have demanded a contract of this value next summer given that he would not have been arbitration eligible, though it does buy out two of his unrestricted free agent years down the road for a reasonable price. The breakdown of the deal, provided by Craig Morgan of AZ Sports, indicates that he also has an eight team no-trade clause in those UFA seasons. The full salary breakdown is as follows:
- 2019-20: $2.95MM salary + $300K signing bonus
- 2020-21: $3.45MM salary
- 2021-22: $5.075MM salary
- 2022-23: $3.45MM salary
- 2023-24: $5.725MM salary
- 2024-25: $5.75MM salary
Those are big numbers for a player that still has yet to really have an offensive breakout, though they could look like a bargain down the road if he does. With the salary cap expected to continue to grow (though perhaps not at the same rate), a $4.45MM cap hit might become more than reasonable for a two-way center with Dvorak’s ability. Unfortunately right now it will be compared to some of his contemporaries who have produced at a much higher rate in recent years. CapFriendly’s tool indicates that Victor Rask and Rickard Rakell are the closes matches for the deal, given they each signed six-year extensions in 2016 at the age of 23 (the same age Dvorak will be when the deal kicks in). Rask and Rakell were each coming off 20+ goal and 40+ point seasons, thresholds that Dvorak has still yet to eclipse in his short career, and both come in at substantially lower cap hits ($4.0MM and $3.8MM respectively). Rakell has thrived after being moved to the wing with 67 goals over the first two years of the deal, and while Rask has actually taken steps backwards offensively in consecutive years his point production still sat right around where Dvorak was in 2017-18.
The interesting part of a deal like this for Arizona though, is that the team normally doesn’t really have to worry about cap problems. Even after assuming dead cap hits like Dave Bolland and Marian Hossa, the team still finds itself with more than $10MM in space and one of the lowest salary totals in the league. Giving Dvorak a little bit extra in order to keep him in the desert long-term may have been necessary, and something that the team was obviously willing to do. Other teams around the league will likely feel the effects worse than Arizona when it comes to re-signing their own restricted free agents.
Poll: Which Free Agent Contract Will Be Regretted The Most?
Two years ago the unrestricted free agent was flooded with aging players who still looked like they might have a few effective seasons left in them. That led teams to get into bidding wars and overpay, hoping that they could inject some production into the lineup while dealing with the consequences later down the line. Unfortunately, most of these contracts blew up immediately and provided very little value.
The biggest contracts given out in the first few days of the 2016 UFA market were as follows:
Milan Lucic (EDM) – Seven years, $42MM
Kyle Okposo (BUF) – Seven years, $42MM
Andrew Ladd (NYI) – Seven years, $38.5MM
Loui Eriksson (VAN) – Six years, $36MM
Frans Nielsen (DET) – Six years, $31.5MM
David Backes (BOS) – Five years, $30MM
Jason Demers (FLA) – Five years, $22.5MM
Troy Brouwer (CGY) – Four years, $18MM
Mikkel Boedker (SJS) – Four years, $16MM
That list is uninspiring to say the least, with two of the players having already been traded and a third who was bought out this offseason. Some of the others are among the worst contracts in the league relative to their production, something that can be said a few seasons out of basically every UFA season. This year may be no different, though there seemed to be more talent available.
Here is a list of the biggest contracts handed out this time around:
John Tavares (TOR) – Seven years, $77MM
James van Riemsdyk (PHI) – Five years, $35MM
James Neal (CGY) – Five years, $28.75MM
Paul Stastny (VGK) – Three years, $19.5MM
Ilya Kovalchuk (LAK) – Three years, $18.75MM
Calvin de Haan (CAR) – Four years, $18.2MM
Jack Johnson (PIT) – Five years, $16.25MM
David Perron (STL) – Four years, $16MM
Tyler Bozak (STL) – Three years, $15MM
While there is an obvious difference at the very top, it does seem like teams were wary to hand out six or seven year contracts to forwards approaching or at 30 years of age. van Riemsdyk and Neal especially would have ranked among the very best available in 2016, and likely would have been able to negotiate seven-year contracts along the lines of Lucic and Okposo. Still, not all of these deals will be looked back upon fondly. Even two years from now teams may be considering trades or buyouts to get out from under the cap hit, or stuck in purgatory hoping for a bounce-back campaign.
Which contract do you think will be regretted the most? Is Tavares’ mega-deal going to bite the Maple Leafs when they need to re-sign their young forward group? Will Kovalchuk bolt for the KHL again and leave the Kings holding his big cap hit? Will van Riemsdyk be able to take on more responsibility in Philadelphia and live up to his big number?
Cast your vote below and explain why you think the contract will be regretted. If you think someone else deserves the title—perhaps an Islanders or Canucks signing?—make sure to leave a comment to include them in the conversation.
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Minor Transactions: 08/09/18
The NHL is still waiting on a transaction this week, but other leagues are busy making moves. We’ll keep track of some of the minor dealings right here.
- After being traded just yesterday, Sergey Kalinin has inked a four-year contract with CSKA Moscow of the KHL, likely meaning any chance of an NHL return is over for the veteran forward. Now 27, Kalinin played 121 games for the New Jersey Devils and 19 with the Toronto Marlies before returning to Russia last season, and would have to make quite the impact in order to garner any NHL interest in four years.
- Johnny Austin has signed an AHL contract with the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, after playing just a few minor league games with the Laval Rocket last season. Austin spent four years at the University of Connecticut, where he led all defensemen in scoring in 2017-18 with 19 points in 35 games. The 23-year old is undersized, but should give the AHL Penguins another powerplay option this season.
- Matt Lane, another undersized offensive college player, has signed an AHL contract with the Milwaukee Admirals. The 24-year old forward has played the majority of the last two seasons in the ECHL, where he recorded 25 points in 59 games last year. A gold medalist at the 2012 U18 World Championships with USA Hockey, Lane is trying to get to the next level in professional hockey after a solid career with Boston University.
- Andrew Crescenzi is headed to the EBEL next season, where he will suit up for HC Bolzano out of Italy. After playing many years in the minor leagues including the last several in the Los Angeles Kings organization, Crescenzi made his NHL debut in a two-game stint during the 2017-18 season. Unfortunately held scoreless, he’ll take his talents to Italy where he may be able to use his huge frame and physicality more effectively.
Roster Battles Should Dominate Anaheim Ducks Training Camp
More so than almost any team in the league, the Anaheim Ducks look to have uncertainty at the bottom of their roster. So far the 2018 offseason has been for the most part spent re-signing their own players, inking John Gibson and Adam Henrique to long-term extensions while reaching a two-year bridge deal with Brandon Montour. In free agency, the Ducks failed to secure any of the top names and now find themselves in a position where training camp could have a huge impact on who starts the season in Anaheim.
Up front, the Ducks have just ten forwards currently signed to one-way deals, not including Ben Street or Anton Rodin who have limited NHL experience and didn’t play in the league at all last season. Neither veteran minor league player should really be in contention for a roster spot with the Ducks, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be competition. Even once Ondrej Kase and Nick Ritchie are signed and given their spots, the team has a group of other forwards competing for the last few roles.
Brian Gibbons and Carter Rowney were both signed early in free agency and given $1MM+ salaries to provide some depth at the bottom of the lineup. Neither player has really proven himself at the NHL level though, with Gibbons playing 59 of his 125 career games last season for the New Jersey Devils and Rowney suiting up just 44 times last season for the Pittsburgh Penguins. The idea of handing either of them a full-time role without competition seems foolish, though since Rowney was brought in on a three-year deal he will obviously have the upper hand.
Behind them are several players on two-way or entry-level contracts, like Troy Terry, Kalle Kossila, Kiefer Sherwood and Kevin Roy. The latter three all spent time in the minor leagues with the San Diego Gulls last season, while Terry played just three games for the Ducks after signing out of the University of Denver. Given the uncertainty around Ryan Kesler’s health and the limited upside of both Gibbons and Rowney, you could see Anaheim decide to give a real chance to one of these players in 2018-19. That is, if they can hold off the competition.
One of the questions most often asked in our PHR Live Chats is whether or not Sam Steel and Max Jones are ready for the NHL. The pair of first-round picks from 2016 are now both 20 years old and will be beginning their professional careers, but there’s no guarantee that either will see the NHL just yet. Jones in fact was listed pretty far down in Corey Pronman’s recent prospect rankings for The Athletic (subscription required), including him in the “Have A Chance” section. There will be a huge battle between all of the listed forwards (and probably several others) for playing time in Anaheim this season.
On defense it’s also not clear who will shake out at the end of camp. The team signed Andrej Sustr and Luke Schenn this summer to improve their depth on the right side, but both likely can’t play with Josh Manson and Montour already locked into positions there. Marcus Pettersson, Jacob Larsson, Josh Mahura, Jaycob Megna, Andy Welinski and Korbinian Holzer are also all still in the organization and could challenge for the 6-7-8 spots, with no clear choice on who would play where. The departure of Kevin Bieksa and Francois Beauchemin certainly opens up some playing time, but the team will likely wait for someone to step up and prove they deserve regular minutes before handing them out.
All of this just makes for an interesting next few months for the Ducks, who are trying to get back to Stanley Cup contention with much the same team as the last few seasons. With Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry now entering their mid-thirties, more responsibility will have to be heaped upon the next wave of talent if the team is to stay respectable. Battles like the ones that will take place in training camp will determine whether this Ducks team is just a very good one, or a real contender for the Stanley Cup.
Morning Notes: Gretzky, Avangard, Vasilevskiy
Today marks 30 years since the infamous Wayne Gretzky trade, which sent the best player in the history of hockey to the Los Angeles Kings. The deal stunned the sports world and changed the path of hockey in California, though Gretzky would never bring the Stanley Cup to Los Angeles. He would record 918 points in 539 games for the Kings though, and grow the game in an extremely non-traditional market.
Though the deal was (and is) seen as a pure sale of the greatest player in the world, the Oilers did receive some hockey assets in the deal. Jimmy Carson, Martin Gelinas and three first-round picks were included in the trade, along with a $15MM check. Carson would play just 84 games with the Oilers, while Gelinas didn’t really hit his stride until years later in Vancouver. Regardless of the outcomes for each team, the trade changed everything in hockey and spawned multiple generations of fans who will point to it as reason to believe anyone in the league can be traded at any time. After all, if Wayne Gretzky can be traded…
- The KHL, a league that Gretzky just agreed to lend his name to as the global ambassador for Kunlun Red Star, has decided that one of their teams will play home games more than 1,600 miles away from home. The arena for Avangard Omsk has been deemed not ready to host games this season, meaning the team will host their home games in the Moscow region on the other side of the country.
- The Tampa Bay Lightning seem to have a new superstar restricted free agent every offseason, and the summer of 2020 will be no different. Andrei Vasilevskiy is scheduled to become an RFA in two years meaning the team can start negotiating an extension as soon as July 1, 2019. In his latest for The Athletic, Joe Smith (subscription required) spoke with several agents around the league who do not represent the Russian goaltender who believe his eventual cap hit could come in between $8-8.5MM. According to one agent that’s if he doesn’t win the Stanley Cup and MVP, which would bump the number up into “[Carey] Price money.”
Ryan Suter Expects To Be At Full Strength To Begin Season
Back in April, Minnesota Wild star defenseman Ryan Suter stated that his broken fibula injury was extremely rare, most commonly seen in car accidents, and that if he played any other sport but hockey it may have been a career-ending injury. Four months later, Suter is now optimistic that he will have a healthy ankle and be ready for full participation come training camp next month. “I feel good right now. I feel like I’m back”, Suter told beat writer Dan Myers, “the way I feel right now, I feel like I’m going to be ready for camp.”
When Suter originally went down with the injury late in the regular season, it didn’t seem at first to be anything major. It was soon discovered that it was quite the opposite. Suter went in for surgery on April 5th and was originally given a four-month timeline before he could even put weight on his right leg. Yet, just days after that four-month mark, Suter told Myers that he skated for the first time three weeks ago. While the reliable rearguard did go through arduous rehab and spent most of the summer in discomfort and pain, he is now working out harder than ever, dedicating hours each day to the gym in an effort to get back to 100%. Suter estimates that, injury and all, he is only a few weeks behind where he would be in a normal off-season.
For those doubting that Suter will be able to step on the ice for the Wild’s opener and play up to the very high standards that he has set for himself, Myers says that Suter thrives off the skepticism. “Honestly, that motivates me, I like doubters. When people say, ’You probably won’t be ready for camp,’ that just makes me angry. I might not be, but I’m sure as heck going to try as hard as I can.” Myers remarks that Suter seems confident and re-energized for the season. The all-world blue liner himself is openly optimistic: “I’m looking forward to getting back to Minnesota. I feel like this is going to be a blessing in disguise.” Minnesota fans who share in their defensive leader’s positive feelings can rest easy. It seems that Suter will be back leading the Wild as if nothing even happened.
Overseas Notes: Lundestrom, Vesalainen, Free Agents, Paille
While the Anaheim Ducks finalized an entry-level contract with newest first-round pick Isac Lundestrom yesterday, don’t expect to see him donning a Ducks jersey right away. Beat writer Eric Stephens reports that Lundestrom is expected to remain in Sweden for at least one more year to finish out his contract with the SHL’s Lulea. This would line up with the specifics of Lundestrom’s contract, which contains a European Assignment Clause for next season. After that, Lundestrom’s future is more of a mystery, but the high-ceiling center is still relatively raw and likely a few seasons away from an NHL debut.
- Another prospect in limbo between the NHL and Europe is the Winnipeg Jets’ 2017 first-rounder, Kristian Vesalainen. The 19-year-old power forward had a breakout campaign last year, recording 43 point in 49 games between HPK and Karpat of the Liiga, the top pro league in his native Finland, and impressing at the World Juniors. However, Vesalainen’s contract in Finlad has expired and he remains an unsigned – and highly sought-after – free agent across the continent, having now spent time in both Sweden and Finland. Yet, Vesalainen may be holding out for a spot with the Jets this season. The budding young star has yet to sign his entry-level contract, but may be hoping that he can somehow work his way in to a loaded forward corps in Winnipeg. Otherwise, one would think that he would have already signed with another team in Europe.
- Speaking of European free agents, Vesalainen is not the only recognizable name still available who played overseas last season. After a point-per-game season with SC Bern of the Swiss NLA, Mason Raymond still remains unsigned, perhaps hoping for NHL interest. Raymond, offensive defenseman Bobby Sanguinetti, and capable two-way forward Nick Spaling highlight NLA players awaiting jobs, while Brandon Gormley and Jonathon Blum are puck-moving defenders still looking for a contract after playing in the SHL and KHL respectively last year. In Finland, veteran defenseman Henrik Tallinder has remained productive well into his late thirties but is still looking for another shot, while consistent forward Jesse Saarinen, a top 20 per-game scorer in the Liiga, also remains unemployed.
- Joining the list of European free agents today is long-time NHL checking forward Daniel Paille. Paille, 34, spent 11 years with the Buffalo Sabres, Boston Bruins, and New York Rangers before departing for Sweden in 2016. Paille signed a three-year deal with Brynas IF of the SHL and played well in his first season. However, injuries limited the two-way forward to just 14 games last season and Brynas decided to move on. The team announced today that both they and Paille have mutually agreed to terminate the final year of the contract, allowing Brynas to get out from under the contract and allowing Paille to focus on getting healthy. At this point, it is unclear if Paille will be actively looking for work this season or if he is leaning toward taking the year off or perhaps hanging up the skates for good.
Poll: Who Is The Best UFA Left On The Market?
The unrestricted free agent frenzy dried up extremely quickly this season, and we haven’t seen single contract signed in the first week of August. The last UFA to ink a deal was Matt Read, who signed a two-way contract with the Minnesota Wild to try and compete for some fourth line minutes and continue his NHL career. Though the cap situation for many teams is quite tight and roster spots are more and more valuable every year, it is somewhat shocking to see how much NHL experience is still out there. The talent of the remaining players can be questioned, but the league has always seemed willing to give veteran players a chance on one-year deals in the past.
Last August, we saw older players like Matt Cullen, Francois Beauchemin, Drew Stafford and Matt Hendricks given another chance to extend their careers while several minor league players were brought back on two-way contracts. That is still bound to happen over the next few weeks, but the more surprising part is how many veteran names may be left searching for a professional tryout or heading to Europe to find work. There are dozens of skaters who played in at least one NHL game last season still available on the UFA market, and several goaltenders including three with plenty of previous experience.
So which would you most likely sign if you had control of your favorite franchise? Rick Nash may be the obvious choice, given his relative youth and previous star status, but he’s been kept out of our poll given that he hasn’t even decided whether he wants to play next season. Nash may come back to the game at some point, but right now he should be considered off limits. Among the other names though there are several players who’ve shown real effectiveness in the past, some even as recently as last season.
Cast your vote to decide who is the best free agent left on the market, and make sure to leave a comment down below explaining your choice. We’ve included many of the available options, but speak up if there’s someone you think is being overlooked.
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Minor Transactions: 08/08/18
The NHL transaction wire has been quiet for a few days now, but there are still moves being made in other leagues around the world. We’ll keep an eye on any interesting happenings right here.
- There was a trade in the KHL that included a former NHL forward, as Sergey Kalinin was sent from SKA St. Petersburgh to CSKA Moscow in exchange for Andrei Kuzmenko. Kalinin suited up for 121 games for the New Jersey Devils during the 2015-16 and 2016-17 seasons, but returned to Russia last year. The 27-year old forward had just 19 points in his short NHL career, and couldn’t find much consistency even at the minor league level for the Toronto Marlies. He did set a career-high with 31 points for SKA last season, but was apparently deemed expendable to get the younger Kuzmenko.
- The Rockford IceHogs have signed Terry Broadhurst and Neil Manning to one-year AHL contracts, bringing both in to help fill out the roster. Broadhurst is returning to the place where he started his professional career, and will try to continue to produce offensively like he did for the Cleveland Monsters last season. Manning is an even more interesting addition, coming over from two years spent playing in Italy as part of the AlpsHL, a league made up of teams from several countries.
- Danial Singer, who was included in yesterday’s OHL trade between the Niagara Ice Dogs and Erie Otters, will miss eight games at the beginning of the season for a drug suspension. The Otters, who acquired Singer as part of a package for Minnesota Wild prospect Ivan Lodnia, were aware of the incoming suspension before the trade according to Victor Fernandes of the Erie Times-News.