Restricted Free Agent Contract Projections: Kucherov, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Trouba
Late in restricted free agency, there are still a number of highly skilled players who remain unsigned. These players generally lack leverage, because other teams behave cautiously given the compensation rules. Then consider that this late in the summer, most teams have their budgets set. If a restricted free agent is paid, it’s often to buy years of unrestricted free agency.
Even into August, there are still candidates to have those years controlled. Here’s a look at what kind of deals four of them may be pursuing.
- Nikita Kucherov – Having just turned 23, Kucherov is coming off a 30 goal, 36 assist season, leading the Lightning with 66 points. In 2015, his season was nearly identical, with one fewer goal, and the same number of assists. Filip Forsberg is a year younger, but put up very similar offensive numbers for Nashville this year. Forsberg just signed a six year contract worth $6MM per year. Look for Kucherov to get a similar deal. Projection: 6 years, $36MM
- Johnny Gaudreau – Just shy of 23, Gaudreau has 55 goals, 143 points, in 160 NHL games. This year, Gaudreau hit career highs of 30 goals and 48 points in 79 games. There has been talk of the Flames and Gaudreau pushing for a deal since February, with nothing to show for it. As Eric Francis notes in that link, the closest comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who is signed to an eight-year, $60MM contract. Still, there’s a case Gaudreau has actually shown more in the NHL than Tarasenko had before signing. The Flames are also more dependent on him, at least until someone like Sam Bennett breaks out. Projection: 8 years, $64MM
- Hampus Lindholm – At 22, Lindholm led defensemen in Corsi Relative. That is, he increased his team’s share of the game’s shot attempts more than any defenseman to play 750 minutes. Lindholm’s problem is that NHL teams are often skeptical of these numbers. This leaves defensemen of similar ages and with similar scoring numbers as the most likely comparisons. Calgary’s Dougie Hamilton got $5.75MM per season last year, but he also plays the much scarcer right side, and Calgary traded assets for him. It would have been fairly embarrassing had he not been signed quickly. The Ducks will play hardball, but if they get Lindholm at under that price, it’ll be well worth it. Projection: 5 years, $25MM
- Jacob Trouba – Trouba is 22 and well regarded around the league, but the reported debate over role will hurt him. As mentioned before, restricted free agents are paid usually when teams want to buy years of unrestricted free agency. If the Jets don’t believe that Trouba is ready for an increased role, it’s unlikely they’re in a rush to pay him for it. This has the looks of something bitter developing, but it’s most likely he’ll get some sort of bridge deal. Projection: 2 years, $8MM
Salary Cap Report: Central Division
As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.
We’ll complete our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Central Division. Of note:
- The Central Division has the two highest paid players in the NHL in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. The Blackhawks captain and leading scorer signed matching eight-year, $84MM extensions in the summer of 2014.
- After June’s blockbuster trade, the NHL’s highest paid defenseman is now in the Central: P.K. Subban and his $9MM cap hit are now members of the Nashville Predators. The Predators also have the highest paid goalie in the division, with Pekka Rinne making $7MM per season.
- With Dallas captain Jamie Benn signed to a long-term extension already, there aren’t any superstar pending-UFAs in the Central, but veteran scoring wingers Patrick Sharp and Alex Steen are both up at the end of this season. Calder Trophy winner Artemi Panarin and Ryan Johansen headline next summer’s RFAs.
By the numbers:
- Chicago Blackhawks
Cap Space Remaining: $2,490,705
Greatest Cap Hit: Jonathan Toews/ Patrick Kane: $10.5MM - Colorado Avalanche
Cap Space Remaining: $1,534,405
Greatest Cap Hit: Nathan MacKinnon: $6.3MM - Dallas Stars
Cap Space Remaining: $7,984,167
Greatest Cap Hit: Jason Spezza: $7.5MM (Jamie Benn’s $9.5MM per year extension doesn’t begin until 2017-18) - Minnesota Wild
Cap Space Remaining: $2,168,909
Greatest Cap Hit: Zach Parise/ Ryan Suter: $7.54MM - Nashville Predators
Cap Space Remaining: $5,414,166
Greatest Cap Hit: P.K. Subban: $9MM - St. Louis Blues
Cap Space Remaining: $3,957,083
Greatest Cap Hit: Vladimir Tarasenko: $7.5MM - Winnipeg Jets
Cap Space Remaining: $10,018,333
Greatest Cap Hit: Dustin Byfuglien: $7.6MM
Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Atlantic Division, Metropolitan Division, and Pacific Division.
Central Notes: Rome, Jets, Toews
According to Sarah Mervosh of the Dallas News, former NHL defenseman Aaron Rome is suing the NHL and his insurance company after suffering a career ending injury in 2014. Rome was bought out at the end of that year after multiple surgeries were needed to try and correct the hip issue.
Rome alleges that “the insurance adjuster assigned to handle his claim was not licensed in Texas and withheld documents he needed to appeal the claim.” Rome never played again in the NHL, and has since retired due to injury. His suit claims that the defendants (the NHL and HCC Life Insurance Co.) “mistreated an athlete who gave his heart and effort to professional hockey only to be betrayed by those who were supposed to help, protect, and provide benefits he undoubtedly deserves.”
- The Jets and NHL announced the rosters for their legends game at the Heritage Classic on October 22nd of this year and presented the throwback jerseys the team will wear, sparking an intense debate about whether or not this franchise should be allowed to use them. This organization, of course, is not the same one that played in Winnipeg from 1972-96; that club was re-located to Phoenix (now Arizona) to become the Coyotes. The Jets were returned when the Atlanta Thrashers, an expansion team, was re-located prior to the 2011-12 season. All of the players on the legendary team played for the first franchise.
- According to Scott Powers of The Athletic, Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane may hit the ice next to each other this season. The duo, that is normally split up on two different lines in Chicago, might be forced back together if head coach Joel Quennville makes good on his idea to move Marian Hossa down in the lineup and into more of a checking role alongside Marcus Kruger. Kane, Artem Anisimov and rookie Artemi Panarin formed one of the most explosive lines in the NHL last season, while Toews had a revolving door of wingers skating beside him.
NHL Announces Heritage Classic Schedule, Legends Roster
Outdoor games are becoming more and more prevelant in today’s NHL, and the league announced today the schedule for the first of such games in the 2016-17 season. The Heritage Classic will be held in Winnipeg this season, and will see the Jets face off against Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers – who were part of the very first Heritage Classic – on October 23rd, just a few weeks into the season.
Two legends teams will play on the Saturday (Oct 22), with Kevin Lowe and Dale Hawerchuk (both of whom will play in the game) announcing the rosters today. The spectacular Oilers legends squad will feature:
Dave Semenko
Wayne Gretzky (Captain)*
Mark Messier*
Glenn Anderson*
Paul Coffey*
Breaking Down Team Roster Crunches
In mid-summer, exact roster sizes and cap figures are rarely exactly what they’ll be on opening night. Cuts will be made in training camp, and some teams will still have trades to make. Here’s a run down of some teams that have tough decisions to make.
Team roster sizes are per GeneralFanger:
- Arizona Coyotes (12F, 8D, 2G): Rebuilding team are a trend in oversized roster, as they look to acquire what amount to lottery tickets, with last-chance veterans and any prospect they can get their hands on being invited to show their worth. The current Arizona roster is missing three restricted free agents, Tobias Rieder, Michael Stone, and Connor Murphy, and doesn’t take into account the number of strong prospects the Coyotes may be looking to graduate this year, like Christian Dvorak. The Coyotes will mostly be looking to create space on their backend, and if you consider the recently signed defensemen, or those who’ve played regularly in the NHL for years, to be relative locks, that should leave Murphy, Kevin Connauton, Jarred Tinordi, Jamie McBain, and Klas Dahlbeck fighting for the final couple of spots.
- Detroit Red Wings (18F, 5D, 1G): Once the Red Wings re-sign restricted free agents Danny DeKeyser and Petr Mrazek, they’ll be more or less set outside of the forward group. After that, they’ll have to cut five forwards. Joe Vitale missed almost all of last season, and will likely spend the year on long-term injured reserve, but it gets competitive after that. While it’s impossible to assume the recently signed Steve Ott is a lock for a spot, given how much he played last year, it still looks likely that younger players like Andreas Athanasiou, Teemu Pulkkinen, and Anthony Mantha will have to earn their spots in the lineup, rather than be given them for pre-designed holes.
- Toronto Maple Leafs (14F, 6D, 1G): The Maple Leafs are only at 21 players on the roster, but that number doesn’t count the still unsigned RFA defenseman Martin Marincin, top prospect Mitch Marner, a backup goalie, the recently acquired Kerby Rychel, who wanted out of Columbus due to a lack of opportunity, or players like Nikita Soshnikov, Brendan Leipsic, Josh Leivo, Connor Brown, Rinat Valiev, Zach Hyman, and Connor Carrick, who became contributors in the NHL down the stretch last year, and who many observers assume to be significant parts of Toronto’s future. Unable to carry 31 players on a roster, the Leafs are going to have to make some decisions at camp over which players are forcing their way onto the roster, and which veterans they’re willing to humble with a demotion. The number counts Joffrey Lupul, who GM Lou Lamoriello has said he’s unsure of the future of, and Tobias Lindberg, who it’s hard to imagine playing over several of the aforementioned players. Still, given the sheer quantity of players, this may be the last chance for players like Leivo, Peter Holland, and Byron Froese to demand their long-term roles with the team.
- Winnipeg Jets (17F, 7D, 2G): The Jets’ situation is difficult because they’ve had a pretty good group of skaters stuck in place for a few years, and also have one of the NHL’s best prospect pools. It’s hard to imagine them not using second overall pick Patrick Laine right away, and so with a 26-man roster, and Jacob Trouba still to sign, there are going to be some younger players who feel ready for their shot, and end up disappointed, and even a guy like Quinton Howden, who came to a new organization after a similar glut of talented young players forced him out of Florida, may not be able to lock down a spot. This number doesn’t even count a lot of the Jets best prospects, like Kyle Connor, Nic Petan, or Josh Morrissey, so even veterans on one-way deals, like Brian Strait and Anthony Peluso, should be looking over their shoulders.
Speculative Suitors For Kris Russell
Yesterday we talked about the market for former Stars’ defenseman Kris Russell as reported by Andy Strickland, a Blues reporter for Fox Sports Midwest. On the 23rd day of free agency, Russell remains unsigned. This is surprising to an extent, since most assumed he’d be one of the few to sign a big money contract right away. Still, similar situations have happened before, including with defenseman Cody Franson last summer. Below are some teams that may have some interest in Russell, and who may be able to pay for him, given the right circumstances.
- Ottawa Senators: The Ottawa Senators currently have just six defensemen under contract for next year, and while that doesn’t count restricted free agent Cody Ceci, it does count Chris Wideman, Mike Kostka, and Mark Borowiecki, who are far from locks for serious NHL ice time. The team also lacks particularly strong defensemen, outside of Erik Karlsson, and while Russell has his detractors in the analytics community, a team that took on Dion Phaneuf without any retained salary seems like a likely one to use their own evaluation methods.
- Buffalo Sabres: The Sabres, similarly to the Senators, have six defensemen under contract, and one in Rasmus Ristolainen who is currently an unsigned restricted free agent, and one in Justin Falk, who’s yet to play serious minutes in the NHL, at 27 years old. One advantage the Sabres have in this situation is that with Franson, Ristolainen, and Zach Bogosian all being right handed, they can accomodate a left handed shot better than most teams. As mentioned earlier, Franson was an unsigned free agent far later into last summer than anyone anticipated, after talk of an expensive long term asking price, and ended up with the Sabres on a lower money, two year deal.
- Detroit Red Wings: Detroit has five defensemen under contract, in addition to the unsigned Danny DeKeyser. Once DeKeyser’s re-signed, there isn’t an obvious candidate to sit as the number seven defenseman in case of injuries, and they’re already mildly unbalanced in terms of handedness, carrying four left handers, and two right handers. Still, there’s been talk of the Wings improving their defense for a while now, and should they be able to clear out someone like Jonathan Ericsson or Jimmy Howard, which they’ll likely have to do to re-sign DeKeyser and goalie Petr Mrazek anyway, they could concievably be a fit for Russell, if GM Ken Holland values him more than one of his current defensemen, and should Ericsson be the one moved out, Russell would be a natural replacement.
- Edmonton Oilers: This is another scenario that really depends on how much the team values its current defenders. Andrew Ference was still injured during the buyout period, and so still on the roster, but between the injuries, his heavy decline, and his expiring contract, it’s hard to see him getting much ice time. The real questions are about what the Oilers want to do with Mark Fayne, who was waived and demoted this past season, and Jordan Oesterle, who has impressed in Bakersfield, and just turned 24, but who has just 23 NHL games to his credit, and is on a two way contract. We know the Oilers want to get better, and physical players are favored by GM Peter Chiarelli, but Ference was also once a physical, undersized, veteran free agent signing.
- Winnipeg Jets: The Jets have a large defense core as it is, but they also have tops of cap room, and a lot of their defensemen are cheaper veterans like Paul Postma and Brian Strait, who’d be easily stashed in the minors. It’s not a pressing need, but you can see why a team might make a less than necessary upgrade to their defense later in the summer if it’s possible, and the price tag is lower than originally imagined. Still, the Jets have a history of caution in the free agent market.
Minor Transactions: Leivo, Leafs, Sabres, Red Wings
On this date 20 years ago, The Great One signed a free agent contract with the New York Rangers, rejoining his former Edmonton Oilers running mate, Mark Messier. While it’s highly unlikely will see a signing of that magnitude today, we’ll still bring you news of today’s transactions, even the minor ones.
- The Buffalo Sabres have announced, via the team’s website, the signing of free agent defenseman Erik Burgdoerfer to a one-year, two-way contract. Burgdoerfer played for the Hershey Bears last season, the AHL affiliate of the Washington Capitals. The 27-year-old native of East Setauket, NY recorded 20 points along with 59 penalty minutes in 74 games for the Bears.
- According to James Mirtle of The Globe and Mail (via Twitter) the Toronto Maple Leafs have re-signed forward Josh Leivo to a two-year deal. Cap Friendly reports the breakdown of the contract, including that it comes with a cap charge of $612.5K annually. Leivo tallied five goals in 12 NHL games and has seven in 28 career contests in the league. A third-round pick of the Leafs in 2011, Leivo had a nice year for Toronto’s AHL affiliate, the Marlies, scoring 17 goals and 48 points in just 51 games in 2015-16. At this point Leivo projects to be a depth player, again likely to see most of his action in the minors.
- Mitch Callahan has re-signed with the Detroit Red Wings, according to the team’s website. The right wing, who has appeared in just one NHL contest during his career, recorded 19 goals and 32 points in 62 games for Grand Rapids in 2015-16. Callahan, who inked a two-way contract, will earn $600K at the NHL level and $175K while playing in the AHL, as reported by Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press.
- Winnipeg has agreed to re-sign RFA left wing Brandon Tanev to a one-year, two-way deal, as reported on the team’s website. Brandon, the younger brother of Vancouver defenseman Chris Tanev, will earn a little more than $874K while on the NHL roster, which is the value of his qualifying offer. Tanev skated in three NHL contests upon signing as an undrafted free agent in March after wrapping up his four-year college career at Providence College.
Minor NHL Transactions: 7/20/2016
Here is where we will keep track of the day’s minor moves:
- The Florida Panthers, via their team website, have announced the re-signing of forward Logan Shaw to a one-year, two-way contract. The six-foot-three, 202-pound Shaw saw action in 53 games with the Panthers in 2015-16, netting 5 goals and 7 points. He also appeared in 19 contests with the Portland Pirates (AHL) where he tallied 11 goals and 14 points. With the Panthers among the more active teams this summer, adding talent via both free agency and the trade market, it would seem the roster is pretty set meaning Shaw is likely to serve as a depth piece in 2016-17, much as he did this past season.
- Veteran center T.J. Hensick is set to join the Ontario Reign, the AHL affiliate of the Los Angeles Kings, according to the L.A Kings Insider website. Hensick last appeared in the NHL back during the 2010-11 campaign while a member of the St. Louis Blues. He split the past campaign with Utica and Charlotte of the AHL, scoring 40 points in 65 games. Hensick played with Kings prospect Adrian Kempe for MODO in the Swedish Hockey League in 2013-14, suggesting his familiarity with one of the club’s top prospects played a role in this signing.
- Arizona has hired former NHL goalie Doug Soetaert to be the General Manager of their AHL affiliate, the Tucson Roadrunners. Most recently, Soetaert was a professional scout in the Arizona organization covering the western region. Prior to that, Soetaert plied his trade in Europe, scouting all professional leagues on the continent as well as the AHL. Soetaert also has extensive experience in the North American junior leagues, serving as Vice President and General Manager of the Everett Silvertips of the Western Hockey League from 2002 – 2012. During his playing days, Soetaert appeared in 284 games as a member of the New York Rangers (two stints), Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens.
Minor Transactions: 7/18/16
Here’s where you can find minor transactions for today.
- New Jersey announced the re-signing of defenseman Reece Scarlett to a one year, two-way deal. Scarlett will make $600K at the NHL level. Last season, he played in 60 games with the Devils’ AHL affiliate in Albany, scoring four goals and 22 assists.
- Aaron Portzline tweets that 2015 first round pick Jack Roslovic has agreed to an entry-level, three-year deal with the Winnipeg Jets. Roslovic also tweeted confirmation of the deal. Roslovic was the 25th overall pick of the Jets in the 2015 draft. However, he enrolled at Miami University and tallied 26 points (10-16) in 36 games. Portzline writes that Roslovic will most likely play for the London Knights in 2016-17, though because he was drafted from the US developmental team, he is eligible to play in the NHL or AHL.
- The New York Rangers have signed Robin Kovacs to an entry-level deal for three years. Kovacs was a third round pick of the team in 2015. Last season with AIK, Kovacs had 34 points (21-13) in 44 games.
- Joe Haggerty tweets that the Boston Bruins have announced the hiring of Kevin Dean as the next head coach of AHL affiliate Providence. Mark Divver reports that the job was offered to Dean on Friday. Dean was the assistant coach for Providence under former bench boss Bruce Cassidy, who is now an assistant coach with the Bruins.
Central Notes: Blackhawks, Jets, Wild
The Chicago Sun Times Mark Lazerus reports on the prospects in the Blackhawks pipeline. For every Andrew Shaw and Brandon Saad who made an impact on the Hawks at a young age, there are other players who didn’t quite make it as quickly. He writes that Nick Schmaltz and Ryan Hartman are two of many prospects looking to stake their presence in Chicago, but also notes that they have been invited to their fair share of prospect camps already. Schmaltz finally turned pro, indicating that he sees his best opportunity to make the team. Meanwhile, Vinnie Hinostroza, Tyler Motte, and Dylan Sikura also look to fill the remaining voids on the Hawks roster. Lazerus reports that while coach Joel Quenneville, and general manager Stan Bowman may feel frustration with affording the kids the roster spots, it’s best if they make their mistakes with a strong core still intact. Without cap room, and only what Lazerus calls “two and a half lines,” the kids appear to be the Hawks’ best answer.
- Tim Campbell writes that Blake Wheeler and the Jets are looking to take a giant step forward in the 2016-17 season. Wheeler talks about how the late season surge for the Jets, where they went 6-2-2 on the West Coast, it showed the resolve of a franchise that didn’t tank for a higher draft pick. Adding to the optimism is a number of exciting young players, which includes recent draft pick, and second overall pick Patrik Laine. Campbell also reports that the Jets have yet to make a decision on their next captain. He writes that Wheeler isn’t concerned about what letter is sewn on his jersey. Instead, he’s more focused on helping those young players take the next step at the NHL level.
- Puck Daddy’s Josh Cooper spoke with Eric Staal on his decision to choose the Wild over other suitors in free agency. Staal feels that the Wild offer him a great opportunity to improve on a down season for him in 2015-16. He also talked about how he feels better centering a line and that the talent on the wing in Minnesota will be beneficial for both him and the team. Cooper writes that while advanced stats reveal Staal’s worth, his goals and assists have left much to be desired. Staal believes it begins with confidence, and that he feels that he still have a productive NHL career ahead of him. Staal signed a three-year, $10.5MM deal with the Wild.