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NHLPA Approves Proposed Changes To Lottery Odds

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In what has become an annual event, the NHL Players’ Association has yet again approved changes to the NHL Draft lottery odds. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the NHLPA today signed off on a new lottery set-up recently submitted by the league. It marks the third season in a row that the odds have been altered.

The percentage chance that a team is selected to pick first, second, or third, as expressed by the number of ping pong balls present in the lottery draw, is dependent on where they finish in the overall league standings. Unsurprisingly, the changes to the odds first agreed upon in the Collective Bargaining Agreement began with the Edmonton Oilers and the painful realization that they had won yet another lottery in 2015 and would move up in the draft order to select Connor McDavid as their fourth first overall pick in a six year span. In response, the league significantly boosted the odds in 2016 toward the teams finishing last winning the lottery – expecting that Edmonton would no longer be in that range – as LeBrun notes that the 30th-place team had 20% odds of picking first two years ago. After the worst team in the NHL, the Toronto Maple Leafs, retained the top pick that year and selected Auston Matthews, the league and NHLPA again agreed to lessen the odds and insert more chance (and excitement) into the lottery. LeBrun indicates that last year the league’s worst, the Colorado Avalanche, had an 18% chance of holding on to the top pick. However, in a wild turn of events, three teams outside the bottom four won the lottery and moved into the top three draft slots, the biggest shift being the Philadelphia Flyers, who narrowly missed the playoffs, picking second. So, to perhaps combat another clean sweep, the odds have again been increased for those toward the bottom

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports that the new odds of selecting first for the upcoming 2018 NHL Draft will be 18.5% for 31st, 13.5% for 30th, and 11.5% for 29th. With the addition of an extra non-playoff team, there is also a new distribution which in fact increases the odds for the last team to miss the playoffs, the 17th-place finisher, by a tenth of a percent to 1%. This is accomplished by lessening the odds for the middle-of-the pack lottery teams. It may not be a coincidence that the Oilers are part of that group. Nor may it be a coincidence that the current bottom three – the Buffalo Sabres, Vancouver Canucks, and Arizona Coyotes – are all teams that have been struggling for years and would certainly appreciate retaining their high picks. This yearly change in draft lottery odds seems to be very responsive to the results of each prior lottery, but that isn’t a bad thing. So long as both the league and NHLPA agree, it’s safe to assume that the changes have the best interests of competitive balance in mind.

Coyotes-Sabres: Lottery Odds On The Line

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Normally, this time of year brings match-ups with major playoff implications as teams jockey for position atop conferences and divisions or fight for the final wild card spots. Instead, all eyes will be on the KeyBank Center tonight as the puck is about to drop on a battle of the league’s two worst teams, the 31st-place Buffalo Sabres hosting the 29th-place Arizona Coyotes. Both teams will have just nine games remaining after tonight’s result and the loser (winner?) may very well end up with the worst record in the league and the best lottery odds for the top pick in the 2018 NHL Draft and the right to draft wunderkind defender Rasmus Dahlin.

It’s a strange time for two of the league’s least-successful to go head-to-head, as the argument is that the worse team tonight is actually the beneficiary, but both teams are playing some of their best hockey of late. The Coyotes, dead in the water at the midway point and on pace for a measly 46 points this season, have had a resurgence in the second half. The team is 12-5-2 since February 8th, with wins over divisional foes in playoff spots in the Anaheim Ducks, Los Angeles Kings, and San Jose Sharks. They have already far surpassed 46 points, hitting 59 on the year with their sixth win in their last ten games on Monday night. Not only that, but Arizona has actually climbed out of the basement of the league, something most did not expect. Filling that bottom-feeder role now are the Sabres, but Buffalo too has been hot, with six wins in their last 11 games. It’s the first time all season that Buffalo has had less losses than not in a ten-game span, and that’s included wins over three of the league’s best teams – the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and Toronto Maple Leafs.

Neither team looks ready to lose tonight, but one has to and it could be the blow that knocks them out of their winning ways. Buffalo faces a tough stretch to close out the year, with road games in Tampa, Florida, Nashville, New York and twice in Toronto. The rest of their contests are home against division rivals. Tonight could be the last time the Sabres are favored by anyone to win in 2017-18. Meanwhile, Arizona is about to be run the gauntlet. Tonight’s game in Buffalo begins a road trip that goes through Carolina, Florida, Tampa, Vegas, and L.A. before they return home to face the playoff-hungry Blues and Ducks in two of their final four games. The one bright spot left on the Coyotes schedule is a trip to Vancouver on April 5th. With neither team facing a very winnable schedule, tonight’s result really could determine who ends up with the best lottery odds when the season ends.

Speaking of the Canucks, they’re not to be forgotten in this equation either. Vancouver has lost seven straight and now sit in 30th, with as many points as Arizona but with one fewer game left to play. However, the Canucks face Chicago tomorrow night and Edmonton twice, as well as the Coyotes, in this final stretch and seem more likely to pick up some extra points as the season winds down.

Yet, like Buffalo and Arizona, Vancouver likely won’t mind finishing last either. The prize, Dahlin, would be a major addition to any team, but especially to any of these three struggling franchises. Buffalo, currently in the best position to win the lottery, is sorely lacking in high-end defensive prospects outside of players already on the roster like Rasmus Ristolainen and Brendan Guhle. Dahlin would be an upgrade not just to any of their current prospect blue liners, but quite possibly their veterans as well. Vancouver continues to wait for Olli Juolevi to be NHL-ready and have a long-term project player in Jack Rathbone, but Dahlin would look awfully nice alongside Chris Tanev and Troy Stecher next season and beyond. Finally, there’s Arizona, where many have projected Dahlin to land all season. It could be the perfect spot, as fellow countryman and talented defender Oliver Ekman-Larsson could mentor Dahlin just long enough before the Coyotes to trade him before he hits free agency in 2019. Like Buffalo, Arizona lacks difference-makers on the back end in the pipeline and could desperately use Dahlin. He could be a fit for a long time with Jakob Chychrun. 

Who will end up with Dahlin? It may not be Buffalo or Arizona. It could be Vancouver, or it could be any of the other 12 teams who miss the playoffs, but win the lottery. However, the top odds and the race for the worst record in the league weigh heavily on tonight’s result. Stay tuned.

Arizona Coyotes Sign Merrick Madsen To Entry-Level Contract

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The Arizona Coyotes have signed goaltender Merrick Madsen to his two-year entry-level contract, now that Harvard’s season has come to an end. The 22-year old goaltender could have become an unrestricted free agent in August, but will get into the Coyotes organization right away.

Madsen’s draft rights were acquired by the Coyotes as part of the Nick Cousins trade last June, after originally being selected by the Philadelphia Flyers. His deal is likely scheduled to start in the 2018-19 season, though there is a chance he could get into some AHL action on an amateur tryout.

In Madsen, the Coyotes are adding a prototypical NHL goaltending prospect. Standing 6’5″ 190-lbs, Madsen has the length and flexibility to succeed at the next level, though he’ll have to continue to refine his game in the minor leagues. With a .918 save percentage this season for Harvard, he was the backbone of the Ryan Donato-led squad that unfortunately was not selected for the NCAA tournament. That was actually his lowest full-season mark during his time as the starter, which included a .931 mark as a sophomore in 2015-16. It’s not a sure thing that Madsen ever makes the NHL, but with the future in goal still unclear for Arizona, adding a prospect of his caliber is still a step in the right direction.

Arizona Coyotes To Recall Dylan Strome, Trevor Murphy

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One of the more interesting prospects in the entire NHL is Dylan Strome. Selected third overall in 2015 just behind Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel, Strome had almost everything you wanted out of a prospect. A big body, soft hands, elite hockey IQ, offensive creativity, responsible defensively; he was a stud. In the junior ranks, Strome put up 129 and 111 points in his 18 and 19-year old seasons, before getting a chance in the NHL early last season. In seven games with the Arizona Coyotes, Strome recorded just a single assist and his biggest flaw, skating ability, was exposed.

That flaw isn’t likely a career-crippling one, as Strome has made strides to improve over the last few years and showed once again after heading back to the junior ranks that he could be a dominant offensive force. It was hoped that he could make the jump to the NHL this year and remain there, but that just hasn’t happened. Instead, he’s spent most of the season in the minor leagues with the Tucson Roadrunners, where he’s been named player of the month and generally shown his talents on a nightly basis. With 50 points in 47 games he’s one of the most dangerous offensive weapons in the minor leagues, and is ready to try again at the highest level. The Coyotes agree, and according to Craig Morgan of AZSports will recall Strome—along with Trevor Murphy—for their upcoming road trip.

If the Coyotes are to find success in the coming years, Strome is going to have to produce at the NHL level. The players selected just after him in the 2015 draft—Mitch Marner, Noah Hanifin among them—have already settled into roles on their teams as top contributors. Strome has to do the same, and it needs to start soon. Now 21-years old, the center has just two points in 18 career games but could change the league’s perspective in just a few contests down the road. If he can show off those elite offensive talents that made him the third-overall pick, and help Arizona take a few more strides forward—if for no reason other than pride—he can head into the summer with the confidence that he’ll be a full-time player in 2018-19.

Murphy, 22, is looking to make any sort of impact at the NHL level after spending the last few years in the minor leagues. The undrafted defenseman will be filling in for Jason Demers, who has been ruled out for the rest of the season with an upper-body injury. Murphy was acquired from the Nashville Predators on deadline day in a minor league deal, but is a puck-moving defenseman that has powerplay experience. Where he’ll fit in on Arizona’s blue line is unclear, but with Demers out for the next few weeks there will be plenty of minutes to go around.

Antti Raanta's Injury Concerns Expected To Be Factor In Extension Discussions

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The Blues announced that they have recalled goaltender Ville Husso from San Antonio of the AHL under emergency conditions.  This comes on the heels of Carter Hutton missing practice today as he deals with a sore neck.  Jeremy Rutherford of The Athletic notes (Twitter link) that Hutton went to a specialist and an update on his condition is expected on Thursday.

If St. Louis is going to be without Hutton for any extended period of time, that could deal a big blow to their postseason hopes.  Jake Allen opened up the season as the starter but has struggled for the most part, posting his highest goals against average of his career (2.76) while Hutton has the lowest GAA (2.02) and highest save percentage (.934) among qualifying goaltenders.  Heading into tonight’s games, the Blues are sixth in the Central Division and are three points out of a tie for the last Wild Card spot in the West.

More goalie notes from around the league:

  • Penguins goaltender Matt Murray is making “significant progress” in his recovery from a concussion, head coach Mike Sullivan told reporters, including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. He has participated in at least part of practice for the second straight day although there is no firm timetable for his return to action.  Sullivan added that they don’t have a set number of starts that they would like Murray to receive between now and the playoffs; including tonight’s game against the Rangers, Pittsburgh has a dozen games left this season.
  • Antti Raanta’s injury issues this season are expected to play a role in talks as he and Arizona discuss a contract extension, Coyotes writer Craig Morgan reports in his latest piece for FanRag Sports. He has been unavailable for 35% of their games so far with five separate injuries (including the preseason) but has already established a new career-high in games played this year with 39.  There’s no doubt that Raanta will land a considerable raise from the $1MM he’s currently getting but getting back into the lineup and holding down the starting workload the rest of the year may play a key role in how big that raise will be.

Arizona Grants Personal Leave For Rick Tocchet

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Wednesday: Tocchet will return to the team in time for their game Thursday night against the Nashville Predators.

Monday: The Arizona Coyotes will be coached by John MacLean for the time being, after announcing that Rick Tocchet will be taking a leave of absence to deal with a family illness. The Coyotes have 14 games remaining in the regular season.

Though they still sit last in the NHL, the Coyotes have played well of late, going 9-3-1 over the last month. Although coming last increases your odds in the draft lottery, climbing out of the bottom would be an accomplishment for a team that has struggled right from the start of the season. Arizona, led by new head coach Tocchet, didn’t win in regulation until the 21st game of the season. It’s been a work in progress for the coaching staff, but there are some things to look forward to.

MacLean will bring some experience to the job, as he served as head coach of the New Jersey Devils briefly and was a long-time player in the league. In 1,194 regular season games as a player, MacLean scored 842 points and won the Stanley Cup in 1995 with the Devils. It’s not clear when Tocchet will return, but for now it will be MacLean’s team to guide through the remainder of the season.

Snapshots: General Manager Hot Seat, Cholowski, Cullen

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With many teams starting to see the writing on the wall that their season is coming to a close sooner than they had intended, the next question that comes about is whether the team has any intentions of making changes to their staff. After a look at possible changes to the coaching ranks, the next question would likely turn to which general managers are on the hot seat. The Athletic’s James Mirtle (subscription required) takes a look at 10 candidates who could find themselves without a job this offseason.

Mirtle quickly addresses the obvious ones, including Detroit’s Ken Holland and Toronto’s Lou Lamoriello, both who have been rumored to either be on their way out or moved to a different role within the organization. However, Mirtle also admits that both could easily stay in their present roles too.

The next stage of general managers that are most likely on the hot seat include Peter Chiarelli of Edmonton, the New York Islanders Garth Snow and Montreal’s Marc Bergevin, while other general managers might be given more time to prove to the organization that their plan works. Colorado’s Joe Sakic, Arizona’s John Chayka, Minnesota’s Chuck Fletcher and Columbus’ Jarmo Kekalainen are all likely to be on short leashes due to their inability of taking their teams to a new level.

  • Helene St. James of the Detroit Free Press writes that while 2017 first-round pick Michael Rasmussen might make the Detroit Red Wings team next season, the real prospect to keep an eye on will be 2016 first-round pick Dennis Cholowski, whose having a stellar year with both the Prince George Cougars and the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL. The 20-year-old blueliner is in his final year of junior and has 14 goals and 50 assists this year. St. James writes that while Rasmussen must make the Red Wings roster out of training camp to stick, Cholowski could play with the Grand Rapids Griffins in the AHL and get a midseason callup if he can’t break into the Red Wings lineup.
  • StarTribune’s Sarah McLellan writes that the NHL Players Association released a players poll this week and for the question of which player would make great coach after they retire. Minnesota’s Matt Cullen won the poll. He received 4.5 percent of the votes, yet Cullen hasn’t decided if that’s the avenue he plans to go down. “I’ve never really put a lot of thought into it, to be honest,” Cullen said. “I guess I’ve had a lot of experience, and I’ve been through a lot through a long career, I guess. Truthfully, I’ve never thought a lot about it. I don’t know. I’m not sure what I’ll do when I’m done playing.”

Minor Transactions: 3/11/18

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With a busy 11-game schedule Saturday, the NHL has a lighter schedule today with just four games. With all the injuries, many teams will look to make moves to shore up their roster for the upcoming week.

  • The Arizona Coyotes announced they have assigned defenseman Andrew Campbell to Tucson of the AHL. Strome, the Coyotes third-overall pick in the 2015 draft, has had trouble finding a role with the Coyotes so far as he has just one goal and no assists in 11 NHL games, but has been dominant with the Roadrunners. He has 22 goals and 27 assists in 44 games with Tucson. Campbell was recalled last Sunday as an emergency while defenseman Alex Goligoski was with his wife, waiting for the birth of their child. He did not appear in a game.  Center Dylan Strome was recalled on an emergency basis at the same time but later in the day, the team announced that that recall was cancelled.
  • The St. Louis Blues have announced they have assigned goaltender Ville Husso, forward Samuel Blais, and defenseman Chris Butler to the San Antonio Rampage of the AHL. Husso had been recalled on Thursday as an emergency replacement for goaltender Carter Hutton, who injured his neck, but Husso did not see any playing time. Butler was recalled Saturday as an emergency defenseman, but wasn’t needed. Blais, who has been out with a concussion, skated Thursday and might be ready to play with San Antonio. The 21-year-old has three points in 11 games with St. Louis.
  • The Buffalo Sabres announced they have assigned forwards Justin Bailey and Daniel O’Regan to the Rochester Americans of the AHL. Both players, who have been shuttled back and forth recently between the two teams, are likely being sent down with a four-game break coming up for the Sabres. Buffalo doesn’t play again until Thursday against Toronto. Bailey, the team’s second-round pick in 2013, scored a goal in Saturday’s game against Vegas, but only picked up 8:39 minutes of ice time. O’Regan, acquired in the Evander Kane trade at the trade deadline, has not picked up a point yet in two games with San Jose. The 24-year-old only got 10:19 of ice time Saturday.
  • As reported yesterday, the Colorado Avalanche officially assigned forward Vladislav Kamenev to the San Antonio Rampage of the AHL last night, according to CapFriendly. Kamenev, who came over to the Avalanche from Nashville in the Matt Duchene trade, broke his arm on his first game with Colorado. He is ready to get some playing time in San Antonio and could be recalled once he’s back in game shape.
  • As reported yesterday, the Calgary Flames officially announced they have activated goaltender Mike Smith and have assigned goaltender Jon Gillies to the Stockton Heat of the AHL. Smith has been out of the lineup since Feb. 11 with a groin injury and has been listed as day-to-day for weeks. However, he is expected to start today. The return is critical for Calgary who is fighting for a playoff spot. Smith, an all-star this year, has a 2.53 GAA, but more importantly, a .921 save percentage in 47 games for the Flames. The 24-year-old Gillies struggled in limited playing time for Calgary as he played in seven games, putting up a 2.78 GAA and a .904 save percentage.
  • The Colorado Avalanche announced they have recalled goaltender Spencer Martin from the San Antonio Rampage of the AHL to serve as an emergency backup after Jonathan Bernier was hit in the head with a puck during Saturday’s game. He had already missed several weeks due to concussion symptoms. Martin has had to fill in due to multiple injuries to both Bernier and Andrew Hammond. Martin hasn’t appeared in a game for Colorado, but has a 3.05 GAA and a .895 in 31 appearances with the Rampage.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes have recalled winger Valentin Zykov, per a team release.  He has yet to play with the ’Canes this season but has been productive at the AHL level with 30 goals in 57 games which leads their affiliate in Charlotte.

Pacific Notes: Arizona Ownership, Klefbom, Pettersson, Gaudette, Hague

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With the state of the franchise constantly in question, Arizona Coyotes chairman and governor Andrew Barroway is looking for potential partnerships for his ownership of the franchise and has spoken to several interested investors, according to Arizona Sports Craig Morgan.

While it’s too early to know what role or control the other investors would have over the Coyotes, Morgan writes that there is no timetable on when or if there will be a new ownership structure in Arizona. The idea of adding investors to its ownership group would be able to infuse the struggling franchise with more money, but it could also help the team to tackle bigger needs, such as building a new arena or even a new practice facility.

Ironically, Barroway has only been the team’s sole owner for less than a year. He bought out the previous ownership group, IceArizona, that bought the team back in 2013. He did say when he completed the buyout that he’d be open to adding investors.

  • The Edmonton Oilers could find themselves looking hard to find a puck-moving defenseman this offseason in hopes of replacing Oscar Klefbom, who has been struggling after being their No. 1 guy a year ago during their playoff run. The Athletic’s Allan Mitchell (subscription required) writes that the Oilers must decide whether injuries have slowed Klefbom’s success or whether he isn’t the player they thought he was. The 24-year-old put up 12 goals and 36 points last year, but his numbers have dropped to just four goals and 19 points this season. Mitchell writes the team will look at several options to add to their defense, including potentially trading for Carolina’s Justin Faulk, Colorado’s Tyson Barrie and Boston’s Torey Krug. If Klefbom can regain his form from the 2016-17 season, he does have a affordable contract which will count $4.17MM per year until the 2022-23 season. However, if he continues to play like he did this season, Klefbom’s contract doesn’t look nearly as good.
  • Sportsnet’s Rick Dhaliwal spoke to Vancouver Canucks scout Lars Lindgren about the impressive play of the team’s 2017 first-round pick Elias Pettersson, who won the SHL scoring title Saturday. A rookie in the SHL, the 19-year-old put up 24 goals and 56 points this season, but the question is when will he be ready to join Vancouver? “Tough question, impossible to say,” Lindgren said. “When you look at him he still needs to build power but he is such a smart, smart player. Hopefully he becomes a franchise player. He does not collect all his points on the power play and his plus minus is great and that is a very good sign for me. He has a little Nicklas Backstrom in him and I like that. It is a big summer for him to get to the next level.”
  • Another top Canucks prospect, center Adam Gaudette, broke the 30-goal barrier this year with Northeastern University, according to Dhaliwal. He is just the seventh player in the NCAA to reach the 30-goal plateau since 2012-13. Vancouver hopes to convince the college junior to sign with the team after his season is over. The former fifth-round pick in 2015 has put up 68 goals in three seasons with the Huskies.
  • Vegas Golden Knights defensive prospect Nicholas Hague has been making a name for himself, according to David Schoen of the Las Vegas Review-Journal. The 2017 second-round pick broke the 30-goal mark last month with his OHL team, the Mississauga Steelheads, and became the first OHL defenseman since 2000 to reach that plateau. Already signed to an entry-level deal back in September, the 6-foot-6, 215 pound defender is another significant asset for the Golden Knights.

Coyotes Interested In Extending Antti Raanta And Niklas Hjalmarsson

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Although he wouldn’t discuss the current status of negotiations, Kevin Epp, the agent for Coyotes goaltender Antti Raanta, confirmed to Arizona Sports’ Craig Morgan that there is mutual interest in getting a contract extension done.

Raanta was part of the big trade with the Rangers that also saw Arizona pick up center Derek Stepan while New York added the seventh overall pick (center Lias Andersson) and blueliner Tony DeAngelo.  When healthy, he has made a big impact and has posted a .935 save percentage since the beginning of January which is well above-average.  However, he has only been able to play in 39 games this season and is currently out with a lower-body injury.

The 28-year-old is receiving just $1MM in salary this season and will be poised to make considerably more for 2018-19 as he is set to become an unrestricted free agent in July.  The contract Carolina handed Scott Darling after acquiring his negotiation rights last season (four years, $16.6MM) will likely be a close comparable if they can get a deal done.

While he still has another year remaining on his contract, Morgan reports that the Coyotes also have interest in signing defenseman Niklas Hjalmarsson to an extension as well.  They will be able to do so as of July 1st and Epp happens to be the agent for the defender (as well as fellow Arizona rearguard Oliver Ekman-Larsson).

As has been the case with Raanta this year, Hjalmarsson has had trouble staying healthy as he missed 26 games due to multiple upper-body injuries.  When he has been in the lineup, the 30-year-old has been a stabilizing presence on their back end, logging just shy of 21 minutes per night.  GM John Chayka acknowledged to Morgan that the veteran was drawing trade interest prior to last week’s trade deadline but that they weren’t looking to move him.

Hjalmarsson carries a $4.1MM cap hit (with a $4MM salary) through next season.  As the league shifts away from stay-at-home players in favor of more mobile puck-movers, it will be interesting to see how much of a raise he will be trying to command to put pen to paper on a deal that would see him forego unrestricted free agency.

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