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Why The 2022 Trade Deadline Could Be A Seller’s Market

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The 2022 NHL Trade Deadline is not exactly imminent. The delayed March 21 date this season is 11 weeks away and a lot can change in that amount of time. However, the end of the holiday trade freeze is the unofficial start to trade season leading up to the deadline. In the first few months of the season there have been ten trades completed, but outside of the Jack Eichel deal there have been very few moves of any substance. That may not change any time soon either.

An active trade deadline requires there to be identifiable buyers and sellers and they must be willing and able to deal. Buyers should not be an issue this season; the eight teams currently in a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference may be locked in, as nearly 100 percentage points separate the eighth and ninth team in the conference standings, while the Western Conference includes 13 teams with .500+ records. Therein begins the sellers problem though. Only three teams out west look like potential sellers right now, while there could be more teams willing to sell in the east but many are in a rebuild and don’t have much to offer, while others are merely lacking impact rentals. There are also a number of fringe teams that probably should be sellers, but are close enough to a playoff berth that would mean so much to their players and fan base that they may hold out.

The Athletic’s Eric Duhatschek notes another wrinkle that could limit sellers: five teams are currently operating with an interim GM. The Montreal Canadiens and Vancouver Canucks have hired new heads of their respective front offices in Jeff Gorton and Jim Rutherford, but neither has in turn hired his GM yet and seem unlikely to make major moves independently. This could take Gorton’s Canadiens, one of the most obvious sellers on paper, off the market. Rutherford’s Canucks hope to be in the playoff race, but he has already vowed that the team will either sell or stand pat this season and the longer it takes to hire a GM, the more likely it will be the latter. The Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks, and San Jose Sharks are all operating with temporary GMs, all of whom have limited experience. Chicago and Anaheim fired their most recent GMs and have internal replacements for the time being, while San Jose GM Doug Wilson is currently away from the team for medical reasons. As Duhatschek points out, the likes of Kyle Davidson, Jeff Solomon, and Joe Will are not only new to the GM position, but lack the relationships around the league to make impact moves. So while the Blackhawks look like bona fide sellers and the Sharks and possibly the Ducks could get to that point, will they actually be willing to make trades?

The Seattle Kraken also fall into a category all their own. The NHL’s newest team was just put together in its entirety this off-season. Although they struggled mightily all season and do possess a number of expiring contracts, it remains to be seen if GM Ron Francis is ready to blow it up.

On top of all of this, the rental market among potential sellers is not strong. Of the top 20 impending UFA’s in per-game scoring this season, zero are on teams with sub-.500 records and just three are on teams not currently in a playoff spot. Expand that to the top 50, and only ten players are on sub-.500 teams: Phil Kessel, Travis Boyd, and Johan Larsson for Arizona, Vinnie Hinostroza for Buffalo, Chris Wideman for Montreal, P.K. Subban for New Jersey, Tyler Ennis for Ottawa, and Calle Jarnkrok, Colin Blackwell, and Mark Giordano for Seattle. Even if valuable defensemen like Ben Chiarot and Colin Miller or even a future Hall of Fame goaltender like Marc-Andre Fleury are considered, it’s not exactly an inspiring list for teams adding at the deadline. More importantly, it’s a short list for a potentially large group of buyers.

For those teams looking to make a meaningful trade this season, the conundrum is when to make a move. On one hand, with a small group of exciting targets it may be beneficial to make a trade early and possibly avoid the high prices of deadline bidding wars. On the other hand, the pool of sellers could also expand closer to the deadline and prices could drop if there is a flood of supply to meet the demand. Until that happens though – if it even does – there will be few moves to make early on and quite possibly right up to the deadline. Serious contenders should be prepared to pay up or sit tight this season.

Snapshots: Wheeler, Khudobin, De Haan

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The Winnipeg Jets could get quite the emotional boost tonight, as captain Blake Wheeler is expected to play in his 1,000th career NHL game Sunday at home against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Winnipeg is just 4-5-1 in their last ten games and has fallen out of playoff position in the Western Conference, but they’re carrying some momentum after a chaotic 8-4 win against the New Jersey Devils on Friday. The Leafs, however, enter the game without the services of Mitch Marner for a second straight game and are on the second half of a back-to-back. Saturday night saw them erase a 3-0 second-period deficit against the Minnesota Wild but only took home one point with a 4-3 shootout loss. It’s an important game for the Jets and Wheeler, who’s yet to score a goal this season and has just 10 assists in 18 games. It’s a slow start for the normally consistent Wheeler, who’s had at least 15 goals in every season of his 14-year career. He enters his 1,000th game with 279 goals and 538 assists for 817 points.

Some more snapshots from around the NHL on this Sunday morning:

  • Coming in at No. 5 on The Fourth Period’s Trade Watch List 2021-22 is Dallas Stars goalie Anton Khudobin. Over the weekend, multiple reports appeared suggesting the Stars were actively trying to find a trade partner for the 35-year-old Khudobin. With just a 3-3-1 record and .873 save percentage on the year, he’s quickly becoming the odd man out in a crowded goalie situation in the Lone Star state. Offseason addition Braden Holtby is having somewhat of a renaissance season with a .927 save percentage in 10 starts, while up-and-comer Jake Oettinger has yet to lose this season and has a .951 save percentage in five starts. Oettinger began the season in the AHL but it’s becoming apparent that after a promising rookie campaign last year, he’s simply too good for a third-string role. Khudobin has two seasons left on his contract with a $3.33MM cap hit and has a four-team no-trade list in effect this season, per CapFriendly.
  • Chicago Blackhawks defenseman Calvin de Haan also finds himself on that same Trade Watch List. Listed at No. 7, de Haan has no points in 21 games this season but has been solid defensively on a Blackhawks team that sits in the bottom-ten in the league in goals against. The 30-year-old has oft appeared in trade rumors, and as he’s in the final year of his contract with a $4.55MM cap hit, those won’t be quieting down anytime soon.

Trade Rumors: Kessel, Hertl, Girard

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After months and months of speculation, the constant trade talk surrounding Jack Eichel is finally over after the star Buffalo Sabres center was traded to the Vegas Golden Knights earlier this month. So where does the trade market go from here? Though still early in the season, there is thought to be some trade chatter ongoing between teams who expected different results early on this year, whether that is a surprise contender looking to load up, a struggling preseason favorite in need of a shake-up, or a bottom-dweller looking to move talent as soon as possible to maximize the return. The Hockey News’ Ryan Kennedy and Matt Larkin recently broke down the trade market and believe the top available name could be the product of that latter scenario. The pair feel that Phil Kessel is set to step into Eichel’s shoes, not only as a major name on the block but also as a player that is guaranteed to be traded. The 1-13-1 Arizona Coyotes have all the makings of a last-place team and Kessel is an aging veteran and respected champion on an expiring deal; the fit is poor and should be resolved soon rather than waiting until the deadline whilst Kessel plays meaningless games and risks injury for the ’Yotes. The scoring winger should be attractive to any number of teams and Arizona could take the first impressive futures package offered to them to further their rebuild.

  • Though mentioned by Kennedy and Larkin as a top trade chip, piling on top of plenty of recent speculation, Tomas Hertl may not be as guaranteed to move as people have been led to believe. The Athletic’s Kevin Kurz writes in a recent mailbag that Hertl seems be enjoying this season more than last. A winning record so far certainly helps, but Hertl is also appreciative of his growing role as a team leader amidst a culture turnaround in San Jose. Kurz believes that Hertl has a 50/50 chance of signing an extension with the Sharks, which doesn’t even speak to his likelihood of being traded. If the team continues to win and stays in the playoff picture all season and the possibility of a renewed deal between the two sides remains, Hertl may not move after all. There are some cap management factors working against a deal for both team and player, with the Sharks’ restrictions limiting Hertl’s contract potential and making such a move more risky for San Jose, but if the team is playing well and Hertl is happy, producing, and leading the young locker room, it will be difficult for the Sharks to opt for a trade instead of working toward an extension.
  • Meanwhile, Kennedy and Larkin do not mention Colorado Avalanche defenseman Samuel Girard as top trade bait, but his name has been a fixture on the rumor mill in recent days. According to Mike Chambers of The Denver Post, the Avs made a late run at Eichel and floated Girard as the centerpiece of the deal. Now, even with Eichel off the market, Chambers believes that GM Joe Sakic is still willing to part ways with Girard. Though young and offensively gifted, Girard has some glaring defensive weaknesses that Colorado would rather not deal with given his $5MM cap hit. Girard is still an elite defenseman, but the well-balanced Avs are looking to use that cap space in a different way, if at all possible, by landing another elite forward. With phenom Cale Makar locked up long-term, a number of reliable veterans in support, and other promising young defenders like Bowen Byram and Justin Barron, the team could survive the loss of Girard if it means adding another difference-maker to their top-heavy forward corps. If the Avalanche continue to fall short of expectations this season, it will only serve to fuel a potential shake-up with Girard as the most likely trade victim.

Latest On Sharks’ Evander Kane, Tomas Hertl

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Between the ongoing investigation into Evander Kane and the trade rumors swirling around Tomas Hertl, it seemed that potentially neither would be back with the San Jose Sharks this season. Add in that Hertl is believed to be one of the Sharks’ core members who was upset with Kane’s presence in the locker room last year and did not want him to return, it certainly did not seem that both would be back in 2021-22. Yet, it is growing increasingly more likely that this in fact will be the case.

Kane tells ESPN’s Linda Cohn that he expects the NHL’s current investigation into allegations that he bet on NHL games, and Sharks games in particular, to go nowhere. Kane states that these allegations were entirely fabricated by his estranged wife during the course of an ugly and public divorce:

Obviously (the accusations are) incredibly false. It’s unfortunate that transpired, and it’s unfortunate that those false allegations were made. I understood the magnitude of them immediately. I know (they’re) not true. I know none of what she was saying was true. I was very confident, comfortable with knowing that I was going to be exonerated and am going to be exonerated of those allegations.

While Kane’s investigation is far from his only off-ice concern – bankruptcy case, gambling addiction, and other unsavory allegations – it is seemingly the only grounds that the NHL would have to suspend him or San Jose would have to terminate his contract. And while the Sharks could explore trading Kane, it would be difficult to move his baggage an an extremely no-trade clause does not help. If Kane is cleared, it seems likely that he will be back with the Sharks this season.

Unless that fact itself is the final straw for Hertl, he too seems to be heading back to San Jose to begin the season. Speaking to NHL.com’s Tracey Myers, Hertl stated that he not only expects to attend training camp and open the year with the Sharks, but he is open to extension talks as well. Of course, it seems more likely than not that Hertl heads elsewhere as a free agent next summer, if not via trade sooner, but he will not be requesting a trade out of San Jose; quite the contrary, in fact. Hertl is looking to take on more of a leadership role with the Sharks this season to fill the gap of departed veterans like Joe Thornton, Patrick Marleau, and Joe Pavelski. Hertl clearly cares about locker room chemistry and still seems to be thinking only of the present in San Jose and not his future. Will he remain as focused if the locker room he is trying to lead includes Kane though? That could be the big question for the Sharks early this season: can the two co-exist and, if not, which one is moved first?

Rangers’ Ryan Strome Drawing Trade Interest

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The New York Rangers’ Expansion Draft protection list contained a surprise inclusion, but it wasn’t Ryan Strome. (Kevin Rooney?) Strome has bounced around during his NHL career, but has found a good fit in New York with back-to-back career years in terms of per-game scoring. Yet, Strome may be protected from selection by the Seattle Kraken, but that doesn’t guarantee that he will be on the Rangers roster next season. Bally Sports’ Andy Strickland reports that Strome is drawing considerable interest on the trade market.

Rosters are currently frozen through Wednesday’s Expansion Draft, but that was preceded by a mini-trade deadline on Saturday that resulted in a flurry of activity and surely far more conversations than what actually came to fruition. Strome’s name apparently came up in these talks and when transactions are unlocked later this week, he may be on the move. Of course, this depends one whether the interest that Strickland reports is being encouraged. If the Rangers are listening to offers or even shopping Strome, then a deal could happen soon. The Rangers are known to be in the market for an improvement down the middle and could be looking to open up cap space and a top-six center spot in one fell swoop by moving Strome. However, if this interest in Strome is developing without any involvement from New York, it could mean nothing. If the Rangers are unsuccessful in trading for an established center, they will have a hard time upgrading Strome on the free agent market this season and could be hesitant to move him.

One team who is eyeing Strome, should he be available, are the Ottawa Senators. Strickland notes that Ottawa in particular is interested in adding the center. This could be a savvy move for the Senators, who are looking to take a step forward in their rebuild this season, but would not have to sacrifice too much for Strome, whose contract expires after next season. Ottawa may also need to replace center Chris Tierney, who was left exposed in the Expansion Draft. If Strome excels playing on the young Ottawa roster, the team has more than enough cap space to extend him. If he struggles or the team falters again this season regardless, the Senators could flip him at the trade deadline to recoup their assets.

Trade Rumors: Tarasenko, Buchnevich, Schmidt, Predators

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It is well-known by now that St. Louis Blues star Vladimir Tarasenko has requested a trade, but the extent to which he will go to make sure that request is honored may still be a surprise. Unlike other standout players with trade protection who simultaneously demand a trade while holding their team hostage with a limited list of acceptable destinations, Tarasenko is reportedly taking an “anywhere but St. Louis” approach. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple writes that Tarasenko, who has a full No-Trade Clause in his contract, has nevertheless provided the Blues with a considerable list of teams that he would be amenable to ending up with. Per multiple sources, Staple relays that the length of the list is “double-digits at least”. One team that is known to be on Tarasenko’s list of preferred destinations are the New York Islanders, though the salary cap implications would be tricky for such a deal. It is unknown if other teams who have checked in – the Boston Bruins, Edmonton Oilers, New York Rangers, and Washington Capitals – are also on the list, but the odds are in their favor. One way or another, Tarasenko will be dealt, putting an end to an injury saga that was only resolved once Tarasenko went outside the organization to repair his shoulder. He should be fully healthy moving forward, but with some doubt and a hefty contract, there is some concern about what the Blues will recoup in a trade, if anything. Some have speculated that they may need to attach their first-round pick in order to move the pricey veteran, while others believe he will be exposed in the Expansion Draft in hopes that the Seattle Kraken take him for free instead.

  • While it is unclear exactly why, it has become obvious that Pavel Buchnevich’s name is being floated on the rumor mill. The Athletic’s Rick Carpiniello confirms as much, but does not know the source. This could be a case of teams simply making calls to the New York Rangers about Buchnevich following a career year, creating the illusion that he is available for trade whether the team is taking those offers seriously or not. However, there is also a good chance that the Rangers are at least actively listening or even shopping Buchnevich. The 26-year-old winger has improved significantly in each of the past two years since signing his last contract with the Rangers. Now he is a restricted free agent with arbitration rights and the ammunition to command a sizeable pay raise. With more depth on the wing than at center, including top picks Alexis Lafreniere and Kaapo Kakko, New York could choose to save the cap space for improving the center position, especially if Buchnevich can help to accomplish that goal as part of a trade. Carpiniello also notes that the Rangers have a number of young standouts who will require expensive extensions this summer and in the coming years and the team could be hesitant to let Buchnevich’s deal get in the way. Of course, this is all still speculation, but for whatever reason Buchnevich’s name is out there.
  • It was reported last week that the Vancouver Canucks and defenseman Nate Schmidt could be heading for a split this summer after a less than inspiring first season. However, the team has since publicly denied any talks to trading Schmidt. Nevertheless, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli still debuted Schmidt at No. 12 on his Trade Targets board and believes that there is something to the rumors. Schmidt was not a good fit in Vancouver this season but still has value in the eyes of teams across the league; he appears to want to maintain that value by leaving the Canucks. Vancouver likely does not want to give up leverage by admitting that their is a mutual desire for a move, but could very much use his cap space.
  • The NHL Expansion Draft allows flexibility with protection schemes, offering teams the ability to protect seven forwards and three defensemen or, in the event that there is a fourth defensemen worth more than protecting three additional forwards, the eight-skater approach. However, there is not much a team can do when they want to protect five defenseman (unless they somehow feel they can afford to only protect three forwards.) The Nashville Predators appear to be facing this conundrum. Earlier in the season, the team entertained trading Mattias Ekholm because it was assumed they wanted to protect Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Dante Fabbro and seven forwards in the upcoming Expansion Draft. However, once the team began to improve and Ekholm was not moved before the Trade Deadline, it then became more likely that they would go with eight skaters instead, keeping all four defensemen. The late-season breakout of Alexandre Carrier threw a wrench in those plans though. The 24-year-old Carrier outplayed and ultimately took the job of the 23-old Fabbro and now the Predators do not want to lose either for nothing to the Seattle Kraken. It has previously been reported that Nashville is trying to construct a side deal with Seattle that would see the NHL’s newest team take a player of the Predators’ choosing with an additional cost, rather than having an open selection of all exposed players. However, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that in the even such a deal cannot be reached, the Predators will try to trade one of their top five defenders. LeBrun believes it will be one trade route or the other; Nashville will not protect all five defensemen.

Poll: Where Will Vladimir Tarasenko Be Traded?

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While most of the hockey world was focusing on last night’s Game 5 and the ensuing Cup-clinching victory by the Tampa Bay Lightning, there was one large story brewing in St. Louis. The Athletic’s Jeremy Rutherford was reporting that Blues winger Vladimir Tarasenko had requested a trade from the club earlier in the offseason. While Tarasenko trade rumors were nothing new this offseason, the declaration of a trade request definitely put the writing on the wall for his tenure in Missouri.

With more clarity coming today on the Tarasenko situation, he’s reportedly frustrated on how the Blues organization has handled his shoulder surgeries and the corresponding recoveries. While Rutherford’s reporting claims that Tarasenko now comes with a clean bill of health, the uncertainty surrounding his post-injury ceiling has got to be a bit of a red flag for teams interested.

Speaking of teams interested, Rutherford notes that both the New York Rangers and New York Islanders, as well as the Edmonton Oilers are all teams who are potential suitors.

The Oilers seem like the most natural fit. After all, their struggles to find legitimate linemates for Connor McDavid in the past have been well-documented. With the Oilers getting some cap space to work with this offseason, they’ve been active in most trade rumors. Tarasenko’s no different. If the Oilers can swing a deal, it would likely consist of a defense prospect as well as a relatively high draft pick, as well as a roster player. Tarasenko would inevitably play on McDavid’s right wing, likely with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or potentially Jesse Puljujarvi on his off-wing flanking them on the left.

The Islanders also stand as a natural fit for the Russian winger, as the team has lacked scoring punch in recent seasons to push them over the top. However, salary is a concern for the cap-strapped Islanders, who also have Adam Pelech and Anthony Beauvillier to sign to contracts this offseason. The Rangers also are an interesting idea, considering Tarasenko would get the opportunity to play with countryman Artemi Panarin.

So, PHR readers, we ask you – where do you think Vladimir Tarasenko ends up after all of this? Vote below!

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Latest On Duncan Keith

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Duncan Keith trade rumors have been swirling ever since Wednesday. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet’s original report stated that Keith, who has a full no-movement clause in his contract, preferred to be dealt to either Western Canada or the Pacific Northwest. The story has only gained more specific details since then. It’s since been reported that the Edmonton Oilers and Seattle Kraken were Keith’s preferred destinations, but today, there’s been a lot of discussion on the Oilers’ side of the coin.

Now, a report by The Athletic’s Daniel Nugent-Bowman is suggesting that Edmonton may only pull the trigger on a potential deal if certain conditions are met. Considering the Oilers and general manager Ken Holland’s goal of being in ’win-now’ mode, Keith’s steep $5.5MM cap hit is a complicating factor in any potential deal. So while Chicago won’t be giving him away for peanuts, for Edmonton to swing a deal, the cap differential needs to be close to even when all is said and done.

How that happens isn’t entirely clear. There’s a nearly endless combination of assets in play that could make a deal work here. James Neal’s contract is similarly an albatross, and could get moved the other way with a couple of other pieces packaged in. Earlier reports today suggested that Caleb Jones could be part of a package to Chicago for Keith. Regardless, and especially if Jones is the centerpiece of a deal, Chicago will likely have to retain some amount of salary in a Keith trade. While Chicago is looking to contend sooner rather than later as well, one or even two million dollars against the cap in a retained salary transaction likely won’t be the end of the world.

It’s obvious the Blackhawks want to do right by Keith, who’s given more than anyone could’ve asked for to the franchise. But considering the 37-year-old’s restrictive demands, Chicago’s hands may end up being tied if they can’t get the return they desire — which is to say, a trade, while likely, is never a guarantee.

All contract information is provided by CapFriendly.

 

Snapshots: Jones, Flames, Ducharme

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As speculation around the now-constant Duncan Keith trade rumors intensifies, more clarity is coming around a potential return. A piece in the Edmonton Journal by David Staples starts off the party with the Edmonton Oilers. Jumping off earlier reports from both Elliotte Friedman and Bob Stauffer that the Chicago Blackhawks weren’t interested in taking on another big contract in exchange for Keith, Staples suggests defender Caleb Jones as a potential piece going to Chicago in exchange for Keith. With Chicago now being implicated in trade talks with Columbus Blue Jackets defender Seth Jones, playing with his brother may entice Seth to sign an extension if dealt to the Hawks. What is for sure is that it’s just the beginning of the inevitable rumors and speculation surrounding such big a name as Keith. As Chicago looks to move on from a franchise legend, what Chicago receives in return for Keith will be under intense scrutiny.

  • The Athletic’s Rick Dhaliwal, during his ’Donnie & Dhali’ radio show today, reports that the Calgary Flames weren’t identified by Keith or his agent as a potential trade destination. With captain Mark Giordano potentially being left unprotected for the Seattle expansion draft, it made sense that Calgary could be looking to acquire a veteran presence to replace Giordano on their blueline. However, considering the leverage Keith holds with his full no-movement clause, it appears as though Keith in a Flames uniform isn’t a true possibility come October.
  • Marc Antoine Godin, senior writer for The Athletic Montreal, relayed remarks made by Montreal Canadiens head coach Dominique Ducharme today ahead of his return to the bench for Game 3 after being sidelined for two weeks due to COVID-19. Reacting to the news that the Quebec provincial health authority would not allow more fans into the building, Ducharme commented that “it’s hard to find the logic” for not increasing the capacity from the existing 3,500 fans, especially due to the large crowds that have formed outside in recent games. It’ll be on Ducharme tonight to guide his team to a Game 3 win, despite the supposed lack of a true home-ice advantage.

Trade Rumors: Eichel, Blackhawks, Kings

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Jack Eichel remains the biggest name on the trade market and will remain as such until he is dealt. Or not dealt? The Athletic’s John Vogl spoke to both sides and found that GM Kevyn Adams and Eichel’s agent had a long, productive meeting on Wednesday. Eichel’s camp believes that the situation is “heading toward a resolution.” Read into that what you will, but the language at least hints at a possible reconciliation between the two sides. This report comes on the heels of TSN’s Darren Dreger reporting that the Sabres’ asking price of “the equivalent of four first-round picks” has depressed the market. If the Sabres are not willing to drop the price of this franchise-altering trade, they could instead try to make amends with their superstar. Then again, Vogl also notes that the Sabres have not changed their opinion on Eichel’s proposed controversial neck surgery, a line in the sand that could still split the two sides. “Resolution” could still mean that the team and the player are working toward finding a trade.

  • One team in on Eichel are the Chicago Blackhawks. Don’t mistake their openness to trading iconic defenseman Duncan Keith as transitioning into a rebuild. Dreger notes that they are big game hunting this summer and have talked to Buffalo about the star center. However, Dreger does not believe that adding Eichel to a roster that already has two top-tier forward contracts in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews is feasible from a cap perspective, even if Keith is moved. Instead, he believes that Chicago has a far better chance of landing one of their other two rumored targets: defensemen Seth Jones and Dougie Hamilton.
  • The equivalent of four first-round picks is a mighty big ask, but it won’t slow down the Los Angeles Kings if they want to add Eichel. L.A. has long been a rumored landing spot for Eichel and it seems there is mutual interest in a trade. As Vogl notes, the Kings’ ability to part with the pieces needed to land Eichel hasn’t changed with today’s deal for Nashville forward Viktor Arvidsson. L.A. parted with two valuable draft picks, but not a first-round pick nor any of their top-flight first-round prospects like Quinton Byfield, Gabriel Vilardi, Alex Turcotte, Rasmus Kupari, or Tobias Bjornfot. If Eichel remains on the market, the Kings will definitely be in play.

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