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Vladimir Tarasenko Willing To Waive No-Trade Clause

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The Senators are expected to move winger Vladimir Tarasenko after confirming the Russian veteran will waive his no-trade clause for a Stanley Cup contender, reports David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period. Reporting from Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch multiple times this month indicated that the 32-year-old may have preferred to stick with the Sens for the rest of the season, but he’s now likely to be on the move before the March 8 trade deadline.

Tarasenko’s willingness to accept a move aligns with what most anticipated at the beginning of the season: if the Senators were out of playoff contention close to the deadline, they’d flip the 2019 Stanley Cup champion after signing him to a one-year, $5MM pact in free agency. The six-time 30-goal scorer surprisingly struggled to secure a commitment when the floodgates opened on July 1, leading to him changing agents less than a week into the new league year.

He settled on Ottawa and their offer of complete trade protection, allowing him to dictate his destiny if they decided to move him at the deadline. While his days of routinely potting 30 in a season are behind him after multiple significant shoulder injuries in 2019 and 2020 with the Blues, he’s been a solid complementary top-six piece in Ottawa with 15 goals, 23 assists, 38 points, and a +12 rating while averaging 15:59 per game across 55 appearances.

Don’t let the +12 rating on a bottom-feeder team fool you – he hasn’t suddenly turned into a high-end shutdown winger. His expected rating is -0.4, middle of the pack on the team, as is his 49.2 CF% at even strength. Nothing about his numbers indicates he’s become a genuine liability, either, posting a solid 51.4% expected goals share with Drake Batherson and Tim Stützle this year, per MoneyPuck.

Any team acquiring Tarasenko is getting a similar talent to what the Rangers picked up from the Blues at last year’s deadline. He’s a solid middle-six scoring winger with Cup-winning experience, and if the Sens opt to retain half of his $5MM cap hit down the stretch and make him a $2.5MM player for whoever acquires him, they should be able to get a second-round pick at the very least.

Kings Reportedly Interested In Tyler Toffoli

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After spending the first eight seasons of his career in Los Angeles, Devils winger Tyler Toffoli could return to Southern California. The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta reports that the Kings have “expressed interest” in Toffoli if he’s made available by New Jersey GM Tom Fitzgerald in the days leading up to the deadline.

A pending UFA, Toffoli carries a cap hit of $4.25MM, and while extension discussions are ongoing, no deal has been reached. The Devils are still in a playoff chase, sitting five points behind the Lightning for the final playoff spot in the East with two games in hand.

That’s a perfectly bridgable gap, so even if the 31-year-old isn’t extended by March 8, they may keep him around if they feel the postseason is in reach or are confident in reaching an extension before the summer. Toffoli’s production isn’t replaceable internally – he holds the team lead in goals with 25 and has 42 points in 58 games, fourth on the team. While he’s technically listed as the Devils’ third-line left wing with Erik Haula and Dawson Mercer, he’s averaged 17:27 per game this year, fourth-most among Devils forwards.

It makes sense the Kings would have an interest in reuniting. He was a solid middle-six threat throughout most of his time in L.A., but he’s only entered his prime after a 2020 trade to the Canucks and subsequent stops in Montreal and Calgary. Last season’s career-high 34 goals with the Flames helped cement him as a true top-six and even first-line threat, posting above-average possession metrics. Add in his bargain cap hit, and he’s a logical fit to help the Kings shoulder apparent semi-long-term injuries to wingers Viktor Arvidsson and Adrian Kempe down the stretch.

Los Angeles would only be able to take Toffoli if the Devils retained half his salary, making him a $2.125MM player upon acquisition. That could change if evaluation this week reveals Kempe is expected to miss the rest of the regular season, allowing the Kings to move his $5.5MM cap hit to LTIR and add Toffoli’s entire salary for the stretch run.

Critics may point to Toffoli’s -11 rating this season, but advanced numbers assign much more blame to New Jersey’s poor goaltending than Toffoli’s defensive impacts. His 56.5 CF% at even strength is fifth on the team, he has a decent +4.9 expected rating, and his most common line with Jesper Bratt and Jack Hughes has controlled a remarkable 60.3% of expected goals, per MoneyPuck.

When talks of an extension in New Jersey began after his trade from Calgary last summer, it was clear Toffoli would prioritize trade protection and term. That’s because he’s played for five teams over the previous five seasons despite his strong play at each stop. He has no trade protection in his current four-year, $17MM deal signed with Montreal in 2020, and although the Kings won’t be able to afford to extend him, L.A. at least presents a familiar destination for Toffoli to ride out the 2023-24 campaign before testing the free agent waters for potentially the last time.

Wild Won’t Trade Marc-André Fleury

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Feb. 28: It appears Fleury and the Wild are now solidly on the same page. Minnesota is informing teams they won’t be moving the veteran netminder ahead of the deadline, per Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman.

Feb. 25: Wild netminder Marc-André Fleury has indicated he’d prefer to stay with the Wild as they attempt to stay in the Western Conference playoff race, Joe Smith of The Athletic relayed Sunday. As such, it appears unlikely he’ll waive his no-movement clause ahead of the March 8 trade deadline and will finish out the season in Minnesota.

“I don’t want to just quit, right?” Fleury said to Smith after the Wild’s 5-2 win over the Kraken on Saturday. “I want us to make the playoffs. That’s my first priority. I think being in the hunt, it’s fun, it’s challenging. And I want to be here and see this team make the playoffs.”

In the final season of a two-year, $7MM extension, the 39-year-old Fleury could regain the starting role in the Minnesota crease with Filip Gustavsson struggling if they manage to squeak into the postseason. Neither he nor Gustavsson has been above average, but he’s put up slightly better surface-level numbers with a .899 SV% and 2.92 GAA in 24 starts and four relief appearances. Gustavsson, on the other hand, has a .896 SV% and 3.23 GAA in 33 starts and one relief appearance.

Fleury has started five of nine games since returning from an upper-body injury sustained before the All-Star break. The Wild are 7-1-1 in that timeframe, firmly putting them back in postseason contention after they looked far out of place just a few weeks ago. They’re two points behind the Predators for the final Wild Card spot in the West.

Regardless of his intentions, there will likely be a fair amount of trade interest in Fleury over the coming days from contending teams looking to supplant a weaker starter with a better backup option. If the Wild can maintain a winning record between now and the deadline, however, it seems unlikely Fleury will green-light a deal.

West Notes: Henrique, Nichushkin, Dewar

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Teams’ interest in the services of Ducks center Adam Henrique continues to intensify ahead of next week’s trade deadline, The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta reports. “It’s a matter of when, not if, he’s traded,” Pagnotta said, also reporting it’s “all but certain” the Ducks will retain up to half of Henrique’s $5.825MM cap hit in a deal.

That would bring Henrique’s cap hit down to $2.91MM without needing to get a third team involved, which would still be out of reach for contenders pondering adds on offense like the Oilers, Avalanche and Kings. Los Angeles would be able to stomach Henrique’s cap hit if Adrian Kempe lands on LTIR for the rest of the regular season, however. He’s out with an upper-body injury sustained Monday against the Oilers, and the team hasn’t finished evaluating his recovery timeline.

All signs are pointing for the Ducks potentially adding a first-round pick in the next nine days after centers Elias Lindholm and Sean Monahan fetched first-rounders a few weeks back. Henrique, who can also seamlessly shift to a left-wing role, has 16 goals and 38 points in 57 games this season. His 0.67 points per game are the third-most of his career, trailing the pace he set with Anaheim in 2021-22 (0.72) and the Devils in 2011-12 (0.69).

Other updates from the Western Conference:

  • Avalanche winger Valeri Nichushkin is nearing a return after being cleared to resume practicing with the team by NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program administrators earlier this week. While he hasn’t been approved to play in game action, that will come soon. Head coach Jared Bednar said on 92.5 FM Altitude Sports Radio on Wednesday morning that the Avs are targeting one of their first home game after their current road trip for Nichushkin’s return (via Evan Rawal of Colorado Hockey Now). That rules him out of a return tomorrow against the Blackhawks or Saturday against the Predators, but he will return sometime during the week preceding the March 8 trade deadline. Nichushkin had 42 points in 40 games before taking leave from the team last month, a career-best scoring pace.
  • Wild depth forward Connor Dewar may join fellow Minnesota bottom-sixer Brandon Duhaime on the move in the coming days, as Michael Russo and Joe Smith of The Athletic posit. Duhaime, a pending UFA, is drawing trade interest from a few teams (namely the Canucks, per a report earlier this week) and is a decent candidate to be moved regardless of the Wild’s postseason intentions. Dewar may also fall victim to a roster crunch caused by the return of Mason Shaw from reconstructive ACL surgery and the arrival of Russian center prospect Marat Khusnutdinov, a younger, higher-ceiling replacement for Dewar in the fourth-line center role. The team controls Dewar’s signing rights as he’s an RFA this summer. He has 16 goals, 36 points and a -16 rating in 169 games with Minnesota since making his NHL debut in 2021.

Canucks Have Shown Interest In Brandon Duhaime

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The Canucks are showing interest in Wild bottom-six grinder Brandon Duhaime, reports Frank Seravalli of Daily Faceoff. As Seravalli notes, there’s no guarantee the Wild will shop any of their players with the postseason still a possibility. Still, he would add an element of experience and physicality to the Canucks that contenders often like to stock up on at deadline time.

The Wild are back above .500 and sit with a 28-24-6 record, good enough for 62 points. That places them four points behind the Predators for the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference with one game in hand. After a 7-2-1 run in their last 10, MoneyPuck pegs them with a 24.6% chance of leapfrogging both the Blues, who are tied with Minnesota but have played one fewer game, and Nashville, to squeak into the playoffs. Those odds are actually significantly higher than St. Louis, who now sits at 9.6% with a tougher schedule down the stretch and a .500 pace in their last 10 games.

It’s also extremely unlikely they opt to sell. GM Bill Guerin has expressed confidence in his squad as a playoff team throughout their tumultuous campaign, and their most prominent trade chip, goaltender Marc-André Fleury, carries a no-movement clause and recently indicated he’d like to stay in Minnesota as they push for the playoffs down the stretch. Duhaime, Jake Lucchini and Pat Maroon are the only three pending UFA forwards on the NHL roster, while declining veteran defenders Zach Bogosian and Alex Goligoski, as well as AHL mainstay Dakota Mermis, are pending UFAs on the blue line.

Duhaime, 26, has 189 games of NHL experience since making his debut with the Wild in 2021, scoring 19 goals and 33 points in that time. He notched a career-high 17 points and 122 PIMs in 80 games during his first season, but he’s not on pace to eclipse either mark in 2023-24. He’s averaged between 10 and 11 minutes per game in each of his three seasons, entrenching himself firmly in a fourth-line role in Minnesota.

His usually below-average possession numbers have been significantly worse this season, posting a Corsi share of 44% at even strength and an expected -6.6 rating, the latter of which is the worst on the team. As such, his most common linemates, Connor Dewar and Vinni Lettieri, have struggled to limit scoring chances against when on the ice together, controlling 42% of expected goals through 99 minutes together, per MoneyPuck.

Playing in all 58 Minnesota games this season, selling Duhaime while there’s interest may behoove the Wild regardless of their playoff aspirations. It may even benefit them – his possession impacts have been poor enough this season that a Duhaime deal could be a case of addition by subtraction. They’d also free up his $1.1MM cap hit (or part of it, if they choose to retain money) for the remainder of the year to use elsewhere.

Acquiring Duhaime, as well as the eventual return of the injured Dakota Joshua, would push recent call-up Arshdeep Bains and fringe winger Phillip Di Giuseppe out of a job in Vancouver’s bottom six. Bains, while he’s brought an energy element that head coach Rick Tocchet has praised over this three-game NHL stint, has no points and a -3 rating. Di Giuseppe has three goals and eight points through 40 games this year, averaging 12:15 per game.

Anthony Mantha Drawing Trade Interest

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The Capitals have bandied moving winger Anthony Mantha and his $5.7MM cap hit throughout much of the last two seasons after he struggled with injuries and failed to recapture his production from his first-line days in Detroit. With this year’s trade deadline less than two weeks away, there may finally be a match for Mantha to move elsewhere with no term left on his contract, reports David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period.

Mantha, 29, had a disastrous campaign last year, dropping a career-worst points-per-game pace with 27 in 67 games and falling out of the lineup entirely at points. He’s rebounded somewhat in 2023-24, at least in the goal-scoring department. His 18 markers in 52 games rank second on the team, although his overall point production of 29 isn’t what you’d hope for at his price tag.

His possession numbers have seen a massive jump, though, posting a +7.1 expected rating and 51.3 CF% at even strength, the latter of which leads all Capitals forwards with more than 10 games played. He’s done so in easier minutes, averaging only 13:51 per game. While he does see some defensive usage 5-on-5, making 54.7% of his even-strength zone starts in the defensive end, he hasn’t seen any penalty kill usage with Washington this year. Most of his time has been spent on a line with youngsters Connor McMichael and Aliaksei Protas, whose unit leads the team with a 57.4 expected goals percentage among Caps lines with over 100 minutes together, per MoneyPuck.

The Capitals sit eight points behind the Lightning for the second wild-card spot in the Eastern Conference, but they have four games in hand on their former Southeast Division rivals. Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic and TSN reported Friday that Washington was undecided on their trade deadline strategy and would wait until further down the schedule before deciding to sell off their pending UFAs and hamper their chances of making the playoffs. The math isn’t in their favor despite the games in hand, however – a tough schedule and poor advanced numbers have the Capitals with just an 11.1% chance at the playoffs, per MoneyPuck, behind other wild-card hopefuls such as the Devils and Penguins.

Washington is 4-3-3 in their last ten games, a pace they’ll need to improve upon. With injuries piling up to depth forwards like Nic Dowd and T.J. Oshie, plus multiple games against key playoff competitors like Pittsburgh and Detroit in the coming days, they’ll need some big performances from core pieces Alex Ovechkin, Dylan Strome, and John Carlson to make a miracle happen. Mantha himself is dealing with a lower-body injury and will be a game-time decision tonight against the Senators, the team said. However, head coach Spencer Carbery said there’s a “good chance” he draws in after leaving Saturday’s overtime loss to the Panthers prematurely.

A Mantha move would likely start a domino effect of Washington’s other major pending UFAs – defenseman Joel Edmundson and wingers Nicolas Aubé-Kubel and Max Pacioretty – finding new homes by the March 8 deadline. Pagnotta says multiple teams have called about Mantha, namely the Avalanche, Maple Leafs and Oilers. All three teams would need Washington to retain a solid chunk of Mantha’s cap hit to swing a deal, which the Capitals are free to do with all three retention slots open. Colorado has extremely limited space, even with captain Gabriel Landeskog on LTIR, and would likely need to move money out and have a third team retain money in a Mantha trade to make an acquisition work.

With the Capitals still in the playoff race, albeit barely, they’re likely still in the “taking calls” stage on Mantha rather than actively shopping him. They still have 11 days to make a decision before the deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Morning Notes: Perron, Rust, Stars

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Rumblings around the Red Wings pursuing an extension with pending UFA winger David Perron have picked up over the past few days, according to reports from ESPN’s Emily Kaplan and Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman (link to “32 Thoughts” podcast, 15:13 mark).

Age is starting to catch up with the 35-year-old, who’s on the verge of completing the two-year, $9.5MM deal he signed with Detroit in free agency in 2022. He’s dropped to a third-line role after adding Patrick Kane to the Red Wings’ top six and has 28 points in 52 games, his lowest points-per-game pace in eight years. That said, he’s still contributing value for his $4.75MM cap hit, and he likely won’t command a raise on a short-term pact to potentially finish out his career in Hockeytown.

Averaging 15:13 per game, Perron isn’t even the highest-volume point producer on a strong Red Wings depth offense that has the team primed to make the postseason for the first time since 2016. Robby Fabbri and Daniel Sprong are outproducing Perron on a per-game basis with a higher percentage of even-strength production.

Perron’s possession metrics have also taken a tumble. While Detroit controls more offense at even strength than their advanced numbers suggest they should, Perron’s impact is still below average compared to his teammates, with a 45.1 CF% and a -5.7 expected rating. His -12 actual rating is tied for worst among their forwards with Lucas Raymond and Joe Veleno.

That said, keeping him around for another year or two at a reduced cap hit is an understandable choice for a bottom-six that’s set to have a decent amount of turnover this summer. He’s got a well-documented history of strong playoff performances – he’s averaged over a point per game across his last two postseason appearances and captured a ring as a member of the Blues in 2019.

Other tidbits from around the NHL to kick off the week:

  • Penguins winger Bryan Rust is being evaluated for an upper-body injury after leaving Sunday’s crucial win over the Flyers in the third period, head coach Mike Sullivan said. The Penguins aren’t yet sure if he’ll travel on their four-game road swing through Canada and the Pacific Northwest that could potentially decide their playoff fate. Rust had two goals in yesterday’s contest and has six in his last seven games. The 31-year-old has rebounded after a tough season last year, overcoming multiple injuries throughout the campaign to post 18 goals and 36 points in 42 games alongside his usual linemate, Sidney Crosby. Signed to a $5.125MM cap hit through 2028, Rust missed a trio of games in November with a lower-body injury and most of December with an upper-body injury. It’s unclear if this new injury is related to his previous upper-body ailment. If he’s not able to dress for Tuesday’s game against the Canucks, expect Matthew Phillips or Jesse Puljujärvi to re-enter the lineup after being scratched against Philly. The Penguins have cap space to make a corresponding recall in Rust’s absence if he’s placed on injured reserve.
  • Stars GM Jim Nill spoke with The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun on Sunday, confirming that he’ll be aggressive in adding depth to the Dallas blue line over the next week and a half. Nill said he’s still in the “monitoring” stage of determining the cost of potential trade targets, which LeBrun confirms includes Flames veteran shutdown man Chris Tanev (although Nill declined to comment). Nill also said the team will get top shutdown prospect Lian Bichsel, currently on loan to Rögle BK of the Swedish Hockey League, back before the end of the season and could be a depth option to make his NHL debut down the stretch or in the postseason if injuries strike.

Metropolitan Notes: Seeler, Walker, Konecny, Mayfield

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The Flyers have a pair of fairly valuable defenders on expiring deals in Nick Seeler and Sean Walker. Despite being in a playoff position and ahead of schedule in their rebuild, the Flyers will likely ship at least one of them out to capitalize on their trade value ahead of the March 8 trade deadline. It’s trending toward Walker being the odd man out, as they’ve yet to formally engage in extension discussions with Walker’s agents, David Pagnotta of The Fourth Period reports Saturday.

Pagnotta notes that the Flyers have talked to Seeler’s representation about an extension. The two defenders have formed one of the unlikeliest value pairings in the league this year, logging over 500 minutes together with a sparkling 56.5 expected goals percentage, per MoneyPuck. The 30-year-old, who’s found his way back into a full-time NHL role after going without a contract for the entire 2020-21 campaign, carries a $775K cap hit and will earn a multi-million dollar raise on his next deal, whether it’s with Philly or somewhere else.

Walker being the likelier one to move makes sense with the state of the trade market, however. He’s considerably more expensive with a $2.65MM cap hit, but he’s also a coveted right-shot defender with significantly more offensive upside than the shutdown-only Seeler. As such, he’ll fetch more value in return. Pagnotta says the Bruins may have interest if it becomes clear he’ll hit the trade market, where he would serve as a third-pairing anchor behind Charlie McAvoy and Brandon Carlo.

Other notes from the Metropolitan Division:

  • Flyers winger Travis Konecny is absent from Saturday’s game against the Rangers, and he’ll miss Sunday’s tilt against the Penguins as well, per Anthony Di Marco of The Fourth Period. Konecny is listed as day-to-day with a minor upper-body injury sustained during practice this week. The 26-year-old is not expected to miss significant time. In his eighth NHL season, Konecny leads Philadelphia in scoring with 27 goals and 54 points in 57 games.
  • Islanders defenseman Scott Mayfield is listed as day-to-day with an upper-body injury and is not in the lineup against the Lightning today, per the team. Mayfield did not appear to miss a shift in the Isles’ last game, a 4-0 loss to the Blues on Thursday. In the first season of a seven-year, $24.5MM contract, Mayfield has missed 16 total games to leg and upper-body injuries. He’s also struggled to produce, going without a goal in 41 games while recording five assists and a -7 rating. Reserve defender Sebastian Aho re-entered the Isles’ lineup in a third-pairing role today after serving as a healthy scratch for six of their past seven games.

Afternoon Notes: Pouliot, Jankowski, Johnson

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The Dallas Stars made a move today as they’ve assigned defenseman Derrick Pouliot to the Texas Stars of the American Hockey League. Pouliot was called up earlier in the week and dressed in three games for Dallas, posting no points while averaging 13:15 of ice time per game. Pouliot’s demotion could mean that one of Jani Hakanpää or Nils Lundkvist is set to return.

The 30-year-old Pouliot was the eighth overall pick in the 2012 NHL entry draft and has never been able to establish himself as a full-time NHLer. At this point in his career, he continues to be a productive AHL defenseman and a good depth option for NHL teams. Pouliot has eight goals and 23 assists in 44 AHL games this season.

In other afternoon notes:

  • The Nashville Predators have reassigned Mark Jankowski to the Milwaukee Admirals of the AHL. Jankowski had a goal in the Predators’ 4-1 win over the Los Angeles Kings last night and has two goals in seven NHL games this season. The 29-year-old was also a first-round pick in the 2012 NHL entry draft and is having a terrific AHL season with 15 goals and 32 assists in 40 games. Jankowski will rejoin a Milwaukee team that has won 18 games in a row.
  • Lance Lysowski of The Buffalo News reported that Buffalo Sabres defenseman Erik Johnson missed practice this morning due to an illness. Johnson joined the likes of Victor Olofsson and Eric Comrie who have also been dealing with an illness. Johnson will not play tonight against the Columbus Blue Jackets and will likely be replaced on the third pairing by Ryan Johnson. The Sabres will be without several regular defensemen as Owen Power also remains sidelined with a hand injury. Johnson has had his name in trade rumors as of late and will likely continue to hear that as the trade deadline nears.

Evening Notes: Tokarski, Jankowski, Barabanov

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The Buffalo Sabres have loaned netminder Dustin Tokarski to the Rochester Americans of the American Hockey League just a few days after recalling the 34-year-old. Tokarski was recalled and reassigned last week before being recalled again over the weekend due to an illness to Sabres backup Eric Comrie.

Tokarski backed up Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen’s today in a 4-3 loss to the Anaheim Ducks and was nearly summoned to play as Luukkonen struggled stopping just 11 of 15 shots in the loss. Tokarski hasn’t played in an NHL game since February 18th, 2023, and is 7-7-2 with a .887 save percentage in 17 AHL games this season.

In other evening notes:

  • A day after sending forward Mark Jankowski to the Milwaukee Admirals of the AHL, the Nashville Predators have recalled the 29-year-old. Jankowski has a goal in five games this season in the NHL but is currently third in AHL scoring with 15 goals and 32 assists in 40 games. He was named the AHL’s Player of the Month for January and will now re-join the Predators as they continue their five-game road trip tomorrow night in Vegas when they take on the Golden Knights.
  • The San Jose Sharks healthy scratched forward Alexander Barabanov today in their 4-0 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights. The 29-year-old has seen his name in trade rumors over the last few months despite struggling through a poor offensive season with just three goals and six assists in 34 games. Barabanov has put together a couple of solid offensive seasons in San Jose but hasn’t had the same quality of teammates this year which has led to poor offensive results. Barabanov is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season, but it doesn’t appear he was held out of action for a pending trade. Based on reports, it seems as though Barabanov was scratched for his defensive play in a previous game.

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