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Eight-Year Extension Unlikely For Auston Matthews

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Every year as the trade deadline approaches, teams have more than just swaps on their mind. In order to know exactly what you can go after to push yourself to the playoffs, you need to know how much available cap space you have going forward and what core pieces are locked up long-term. Even teams out of the playoff race have to push to get deals done, or else might end up having to trade an expiring asset. Long-term extensions often happen in the weeks leading up to the deadline, and last season was no different. Consider these deals that were all signed in February 2018:

Lars Eller, Washington Capitals – Five years, $17.5MM

Mikael Backlund, Calgary Flames – Six years, $32.1MM

Erik Gudbranson, Vancouver Canucks – Three years, $12MM

Josh Bailey, New York Islanders – Six years, $30MM

Patric Hornqvist, Pittsburgh Penguins – Five years, $26.5MM

It comes as no surprise then that nearly as many headlines are currently dominated by extension talk as by trade talk. In Ottawa, the Senators are desperately trying to get some indication of whether they can keep Matt Duchene and Mark Stone around long-term, or else will be forced to trade both of them. The Columbus Blue Jackets don’t seem to be getting any such indication from Artemi Panarin, but will likely hold on to him anyway given their intention to compete for the Stanley Cup. The San Jose Sharks are in a similar boat with Erik Karlsson, but also can’t even sign him to an eight-year extension until after the deadline passes.

Perhaps the biggest headline generator recently (as they often are) were the Toronto Maple Leafs, whose GM Kyle Dubas told media that the team had made progress on an Auston Matthews extension. While insiders quickly noted that progress in this case did not mean a deal was imminent, there is some reason to believe that Matthews could be one of these February signings.

First of all, the Maple Leafs are another team within striking distance of the Stanley Cup or at least a high playoff seed. Dubas knows that they could compete this season, and getting Matthews under contract gives him more information to make any other trade deadline decisions. Second it would make the summer a lot less stressful, given that the front office also has to deal with new contracts for Mitch Marner, Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson, while also filling the hole left by pending UFA Jake Gardiner. Each of those contracts will take some work, and the Maple Leafs certainly don’t want them to extend into the season again like William Nylander’s negotiation did.

It might be easy to say hand over a blank check to Matthews and let him join the league’s elite with an eight-year extension that pays him more than $10MM per season. Not so fast, according to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, who writes that both the team and Matthews’ agent Judd Moldaver “see an eight-year deal as extremely unlikely.” The reasoning would be that the Maple Leafs can’t afford to buy out that many UFA seasons given how tight their cap will be going forward. Instead, suggests Friedman, the deal will be for five or six years, buying out just one or two free agent seasons in order to keep the cap hit relatively low.

In reality it actually might be the better move for Matthews too. Though an eight-year deal would certainly put him into the upper echelon of NHL earners immediately, it likely wouldn’t stay that way throughout the entire deal. With the salary cap set to increase again next season and CBA talks potentially changing the salary cap rules at some point down the line, Matthews could be overtaken by less talented peers in the years to come. If he truly believes in his talent—and nothing in his career path to this point suggests he does not—signing his next massive contract after five more seasons makes total sense. Remember that the Maple Leafs center won’t turn 22 until September, meaning he would exit a five or six year deal still in his prime.

While this kind of a deal might make sense for both the Maple Leafs and Matthews, it will be interesting to see whether other teams follow the same path. The Tampa Bay Lightning for instance have a brilliant young center of their own scheduled to hit restricted free agency in Brayden Point, and face similar cap crunch issues moving forward. If Point would be interested in a five-year deal of his own there could be benefits for both sides, though like Matthews it would put him at risk of leaving as a free agent a few years earlier.

If the Maple Leafs are to go after any player with term left on his contract, they need to get some certainty over what kind of cap hit Matthews will bring moving forward. That means Dubas might not be watching his phone waiting for another GM’s number to pop up over the next few weeks, but rather that of Moldaver.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Minor Transactions: 01/24/19

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The league is has gone dark as they prepare for the All-Star festivities to start tomorrow, and with it teams will be sending their eligible players down to the minor leagues. This is done to save a few days of cap space and give young players a chance to continue their development. As always, we’ll keep track of all the minor moves right here.

  • Along with Jordan Kyrou and Jordan Nolan who were sent down yesterday, the St. Louis Blues have assigned Mackenzie MacEachern and Sammy Blais to the minor leagues over the break. The Blues don’t play again until February 2nd, meaning the set of forwards can get some extra ice time in for the San Antonio Rampage.
  • Colin Blackwell has been sent down by the Nashville Predators, returning the 25-year old center to the Milwaukee Admirals after three games in the NHL. Blackwell is still waiting to register his first NHL point, and could get that chance later on in the year.
  • After bringing up Ryan Graves for last night’s game, the Colorado Avalanche have returned him to the minor leagues. Graves will be accompanied by both Dominic Toninato and Sheldon Dries, two other waiver-exempt players that can spend the break in the AHL.
  • The Carolina Hurricanes have returned Alex Nedeljkovic to the minors where he’ll resume starting for the Charlotte Checkers, and Haydn Fleury has also been sent down to get some more ice time. Fleury has been a regular scratch in the NHL this season as the odd man out among the Carolina defense corps.
  • Trevor Moore played again for the Toronto Maple Leafs last night but is now on his way back down to the AHL to participate in that league’s All-Star game. The speedy forward has made quite the impact this season with 19 goals in 32 AHL contests.
  • Joel Eriksson Ek spent some time in the minor leagues earlier this year to get his game right, and now he’ll get another chance to hone his skills in the AHL. Eriksson Ek and Luke Kunin have both been sent down for the time being, though one or both could see a recall immediately after the break.
  • The Vegas Golden Knights have flipped backup goaltenders, sending Maxime Lagace back down and recalled Oscar Dansk. Dansk won’t be starting anytime soon for the Golden Knights, but will receive a bigger paycheck while the team lets Lagace get back on the ice.

Maple Leafs Watching Hurricanes Defense Closely

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The Toronto Maple Leafs need help on the right side of their defense. The Carolina Hurricanes have a surplus of right-handed defenders. That match has been obvious for so long that trade speculation has run through basically every single potential move, and yet no move has actually been completed. Still, the speculation will continue today after Darren Dreger of TSN reported that the Maple Leafs had management members at the Carolina-Calgary game last night scouting the available defensemen—though he makes no mention of who those defensemen may be.

For that you have to look at the recent reporting from other sources, ones like Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic who recently wrote that the Hurricanes are willing to move a top-four defenseman before the deadline. Any of Dougie Hamilton, Brett Pesce or Justin Faulk could be considered top-four options (despite the obvious nature that not all three right-handed defensemen can technically be in the top-four), and any would fill a need for the Maple Leafs who have been searching for another quality option on the right side for some time. It’s no surprise that the team is watching Carolina closely, but there still isn’t any reporting that a deal is imminent between the two clubs.

There’s plenty of reasons why that may be the case. For one, the Maple Leafs don’t necessarily have a top-six forward to hand over given their recent struggles. William Nylander hasn’t yet been able to find his form since signing a big contract, and the team has now decided to put Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner together in order to try and spark something on offense. Add in that rookie Andreas Johnsson is dealing with a concussion and Patrick Marleau has taken a clear step backwards and the Maple Leafs might not be so quick to be trading away from their forward group at this point.

A top-six forward is what the Hurricanes have been looking for according to all reports, and not just a prospect that may contribute that kind of production in the future. The Hurricanes are now sitting just six points out of a wild card spot in the Eastern Conference and have made it clear that they want to win sooner rather than later with new owner Tom Dundon at the helm. Given that they’re probably going to have to trade away Micheal Ferland—currently second on the team in goals—if they can’t come to an extension in the next few weeks, adding future assets for their defensemen doesn’t really make sense if their target is the 2019 playoffs.

Teams break for the All-Star weekend after tonight’s games, and both Carolina and Toronto will also experience their CBA-mandated “bye week” after the festivities are over. That gives both clubs ample time to asses their rosters and determine what exactly they need to do moving forward. You can bet that as the calendar turns to February there will be more contact between the two teams, and more speculation from everyone else.

Minor Transactions: 01/23/19

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Six games will finish up the unofficial first half of the season before teams break for the All-Star game in San Jose this weekend. Among those six is a must-see matchup between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Nashville Predators, two teams battling for position in the Western Conference. It’s never a love affair when these clubs get together, and with a little extra time off after the game you can bet every player will leave it all on the ice tonight.

  • The Toronto Maple Leafs have recalled Trevor Moore under emergency conditions and will insert him into the lineup tonight over Andreas Johnsson. Johnsson suffered a concussion recently and will take the break to try and recover.
  • Christian Wolanin and Rudolfs Balcers have been returned to the minor leagues by the Ottawa Senators in order for them to continue playing over the break. It will also save the Senators some money given they’re on two-way contracts.
  • Similarly, the Calgary Flames have returned Juuso Valimaki and Andrew Mangiapane to the Stockton Heat for at least a few days, giving the young players a chance to stay fresh.
  • The San Jose Sharks have done the same by sending Dylan Gambrell and Jacob Middleton back to the minors, neither of whom are seeing much time in the NHL anyway.
  • The Colorado Avalanche have one more game tonight and have recalled Ryan Graves for it, sending Anton Linholm back down. Graves has impressed during his short stint with the Avalanche and may get a longer look in the second half of the season.
  • Marek Mazanec is on his way back to the minor leagues while Dustin Tokarski has been recalled. This was done in order to have both Mazanec and Alexander Georgiev in the minors over the break, meaning Tokarski will likely be on his way back down in a few days.
  • The Detroit Red Wings announced that defenseman Filip Hronek is headed back to the Grand Rapids Griffins. The rookie blue liner has looked good in 23 NHL games this season and even better in 20 AHL games. He’ll spend some time in the minors while Detroit is on a break to keep the momentum of his season going.
  • Both Devon Toews and Michael Dal Colle are on their way down to the AHL, as the Islanders have opted to give them some work over the bye week. Both players have double-digit games played for the surging Isles this season and have carved out roles for themselves recently, despite having just four NHL games between them prior to this season. The Bridgeport Sound Tigers will be happy to have the two talented player back in the lineup for a short time.

Toronto Maple Leafs Making Progress On Auston Matthews Extension

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A topic of speculation for years around the hockey world has been offer sheets and how teams could use them as predatory strikes against rivals, driving up cap hits or attempting to steal their best players. One team in particular that is targeted with hypothetical situations is the Toronto Maple Leafs, who have heard that just about every team in the league is preparing to sign both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner to offer sheets this summer. The Maple Leafs are in a tricky financial situation after signing William Nylander and John Tavares to expensive long-term deals, meaning it would be tough for them to match the lucrative offers some other franchises could wave in front of their other young stars.

There are so many barriers before anything like that actually happens though, and one of them is simply the Maple Leafs signing Matthews or Marner to a long-term extension before they even reach restricted free agency in the first place. Though that won’t take place with Marner, whose representatives have made it clear they will wait until after the season to start negotiating, it very well may happen with Matthews. Today, when speaking with reporters in Toronto including Chris Johnston of Sportsnet, GM Kyle Dubas explained that the team has “made progress” on an extension for their explosive sniper. Dubas would like the deal done before the trade deadline if possible.

Matthews, 21, is having another fantastic season for the Maple Leafs with 20 goals and 42 points in 34 games. Though he missed a fair chunk of time earlier in the year—and is in something of a slump at the moment—he’s still poised to have quite the resume when discussing any long-term extension.

When Connor McDavid signed his record-setting eight-year $100MM extension in 2017, he had just 148 points in 127 games. McDavid had missed nearly half of his rookie season with injury, but was fresh off an 100-point year and a pile of individual awards. Jack Eichel meanwhile had just 113 points in 142 games when he signed his eight-year $80MM extension with the Buffalo Sabres, who were betting on his potential more than his production in the early part of his career. He too missed games as a sophomore, and didn’t have quite the lofty statistics that McDavid had recorded.

Matthews then may fall somewhere in the middle given what he’s done so far. The Toronto center has 174 points in 178 games including a 40-goal campaign and Calder Trophy as a rookie in 2016-17. He ranks seventh in goals since the start of that season with 94, despite averaging fewer than 18 minutes a night over that span.

The salary cap has gone up since McDavid and Eichel signed their contracts though, meaning the same percentage would be worth more if Matthews were to sign today. For instance, if he matched the same 13.33% that the Sabres gave to Eichel, Matthews’ deal would come in around $10.6MM per season going with this year’s $79.5MM cap. That would seem to be his floor, though the Maple Leafs will surely try to get him in at the lowest possible number.

Toronto already has an $11MM player in Tavares, and very well could have two more eight-digit earners in Matthews and Marner next season depending on how negotiations go. That kind of commitment to a handful of forwards will put a strain on the rest of their roster, especially given that young players like Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson are also set to hit restricted free agency. Getting Matthews under contract as soon as possible will give the front office more time to figure out how everything is going to work, and decide whether or not they can actually acquire a player with any kind of term at the upcoming trade deadline.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Andreas Johnsson Out With Concussion

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If you were a team holding onto a defensive asset hoping the Toronto Maple Leafs would come calling at the trade deadline, one of your biggest targets may have just been knocked out of the lineup. Andreas Johnsson, one of the Maple Leafs’ young forwards that has speculated as a potential trade chip this season has been ruled out of Wednesday’s action with a concussion suffered in last night’s game against the Arizona Coyotes. Johnsson was hit by Niklas Hjalmarsson in the corner and did not return to the game.

Johnsson, 24, is in his first full season in the NHL after winning the Calder Cup playoff MVP last year. The Swedish forward has 22 points in 43 games while bouncing up and down the lineup, seeing time beside Auston Matthews of late. TSN’s Frank Seravalli had recently listed Johnsson at #24 on his Trade Bait board, just behind fellow Maple Leafs forward Kasperi Kapanen. Both players are pending restricted free agents and could be cut loose given Toronto’s upcoming cap crunch.

For now though, the Maple Leafs will have to operate without Johnsson in the lineup and find out a way to get back on the right track. The team has lost four of five games and is loosening their grasp on the second spot in the Atlantic Division. If that sparks action in the front office, it’s unclear whether they would be able to get full value for Johnsson now that he is out indefinitely with the second reported concussion of his North American career.

Eastern Notes: Nylander, Patrick, Donato

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Since signing his six-year, $45MM contract in December, Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander has found himself struggling mightily with just one goal and three points in 19 games (and a current seven-game scoreless streak). Nylander, who admitted to being in the worst slump of his career, showed up to practice this morning both clean-shaven and on a new line as the 22-year-old has been moved down to the team’s fourth line along with Frederik Gauthier and Par Lindholm, according to TSN’s Kristen Shilton.

“He’s getting in his own way. He thought things were going to come easier, and when it didn’t come, you’re pressing and then you press some more,” explained head coach Mike Babcock ahead of the Leafs’ matchup Sunday night against the Arizona Coyotes. “It’s not like he’s not trying, and it’s not like we’re not trying to help him. We’re doing all that; it’s just not going as good for him. Ideally this will allow him to take some heat off himself and get playing.”

Babcock pointed out that Nylander has always been used to being a dominant player who shoots the puck with confidence. However, the opposite of that is true as he has just six shots on goal in his last four games, and even worse, holds a minus-seven rating.

  • There has been much concern over the struggles of 2017 second-overall pick Nolan Patrick this season, especially concerning his lack of production considering a week ago, he had five goals and 11 points in 38 games. The 20-year-old has finally responded with two multi-point games in his last three, including a two-goal, two-assist performance Monday, followed by another two-goal game Saturday. Charlie O’Connor of The Athletic (subscription required) writes that Patrick’s confidence seems to be soaring and the youngster seems to be figuring things out. Patrick, who tallied 13 goals and 30 points last season as a rookie, is beginning to show his assertiveness like he did a year ago during the second half of the season.
  • The latest Boston Bruins’ player to find himself scratched was Ryan Donato, according to Matt Porter of The Boston Globe. And while many would think that he found himself in the press box due to scoring just one goal in the past 10 games, head coach Bruce Cassidy had a different reason. The coach wants Donato to work harder on his strength on the puck. Donato needs to learn how to get the upper hand on larger and stronger defenseman, something that many young players struggle to do. “It’s not like a flat tire you put air in and it gets fixed,” Cassidy said. “It takes a while. Some guys have it naturally.”

Maple Leafs Still Seeking Right-Shot Defenseman

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are undoubtedly one of the top contenders for the Stanley Cup this season, but many would agree that they face an uphill battle if they don’t improve their defense corps. For years, the right side of the defense has been an issue in Toronto and nothing has changed. Nikita Zaitsev and Igor Ozhiganov are the only right-shot defenders that play regularly for the Maple Leafs and the former has struggled all season long – to the point that the team is actively shopping him and his lengthy contract – and the latter is still adjusting to an NHL pace of play. The only other righty on the blue line is Justin Holl, who is scoreless in two games so far this season as a total non-factor. Toronto needs more production, better checking, and all around more cohesion among their defensemen and it all starts with fixing the right side.

It comes as no surprise then that Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos reports that the team is still actively scouring the market for a solution on the right side, preferably a top-four caliber defender. Kypreos again mentions the St. Louis Blues’ Alex Pietrangelo, a player that the Maple Leafs were linked to earlier this season, as a possibility, but questions his availability. Colleague Elliotte Friedman also mentions Los Angeles Kings’ off-side lefty Jake Muzzin and Philadelphia Flyers’ bruiser Radko Gudas as options. The problem, and one addressed by Kypreos, is that the prices are high on these top right-side defensemen with term remaining on their contracts and he believes that the Maple Leafs are unwilling to part with young roster forwards like Kasperi Kapanen or Andreas Johnsson or top blue line prospect Rasmus Sandin to get a deal done. Kypreos lists the team’s first-round pick and AHL defensemen Timothy Liljegren and Calle Rosen as their top bargaining chips, but that likely will not be enough to land one of the top long-term defensemen on the market.

The prices will be lower on the rental market, but the options are also less appealing. The best right-handed defensemen who are impending free agents all belong to top contenders – Erik Karlsson, Anton Stralman, Dan Girardi, Tyler Myers – and even some of the more moderate options play for teams not looking to sell, such as the Golden Knights’ Deryk Engelland and the Bruins’ Steven Kampfer. If the Leafs feel adding a solid, stay-at-home righty would give them the boost they desire, the New Jersey Devils’ Ben Lovejoy or the New York Rangers’ Adam McQuaid would both be serviceable options. If they instead want a puck-mover, they could try to pry Nick Jensen from the Detroit Red Wings or Taylor Fedun from the Dallas Stars, but neither are guaranteed to be available. There simply isn’t a great market right now at right-shot defense, typical of the position that has become one of the most valuable in hockey due to scarcity. It may be the one piece that the Maple Leafs need to put them over the top, but making a deal is going to be easier said than done.

Nikita Zaitsev's Name Has Come Up In Trade Talks

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  • Although there has been some talk that the Maple Leafs will look to add a defenseman before the deadline, one of their current rearguards is also involved in trade discussions as well. In an appearance on Sportsnet 590 (audio link), Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that Nikita Zaitsev’s name is out there as someone that teams believe they can acquire.  The 27-year-old has five years remaining on his contract after this one with a $4.5MM cap hit so finding a way to shed that contract would give Toronto some extra salary cap flexibility.  However, Johnston acknowledged that they may need to attach another asset in order to get someone to take the contract and a follow-up move to acquire a right-shot replacement would need to be in place before pulling the trigger on a Zaitsev deal.

Trade Rumors: Hurricanes, Oilers, Nylander

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The Carolina Hurricanes struck arguably the biggest trade of the regular season so far when they acquired Nino Niederreiter from the Minnesota Wild in exchange for Victor Rask earlier today. However, GM Don Waddell is likely far from done. Not long after the deal was announced this afternoon, TSN’s Pierre LeBrun stated that the Hurricanes are still looking to add to their roster. LeBrun speculates that the team will add another top-six forward and will try to tap into their surplus of defensemen and defensive prospects to do so. The Hurricanes have the NHL’s longest playoff drought at nine seasons and would very much like to get back to the postseason this year and are well within striking distance of that goal past the midpoint of the season. While the team has succeeded in many areas this season, they continue to have struggles with scoring and, as LeBrun points out, could desperately use another talented forward. Yet, at the same time, the Hurricanes are also reportedly open to moving one of their most successful scoring forwards this season, Micheal Ferland. Ferland is on pace for a career season in his first year in Carolina, but the two sides had been unable to come to terms on an extension. Following the addition of a very similar player in Niederreiter, Ferland’s time in Carolina could soon be coming to an end. Between listening to offers on one highly-sought after rental forward and actively in pursuit of another top name on the market, the Hurricanes promise to remain in the rumor mill through the trade deadline next month and should have some more fireworks in store.

  • Another team desperate to make the playoffs this season are the Edmonton Oilers. While the Oilers are reportedly willing to move a number of assets for long-term forward help, the hype surrounding a possible Jesse Puljujarvi trade appears to be cooling off and GM Peter Chiarelli may opt for adding an affordable rental rather than making another high-risk trade. In his latest “31 Thoughts” column, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman names the Oilers as a suitor for the New York Rangers’ Mats Zuccarello. The veteran winger has been hot lately and could certainly help with Edmonton’s scoring woes down the stretch. As Friedman points out, and the Oilers surely know as well, Zuccarello also should not be too expensive to acquire. The Rangers received a second-round pick and middling prospect from the New Jersey Devils at the trade deadline last season for Michael Grabner, who was in the midst of a season not dissimilar from Zuccarello’s this year and was also an impending free agent. Chiarelli and company would likely be happy to give up a package such as that to add much-needed help up front.
  • William Nylander is finally under contract and playing for the Toronto Maple Leafs, but it’s been a slow start for the young forward in his return to action and an equally disappointing result for his team since his return. Making too much of that could be a mistake, but facing an impending salary cap crunch and mounting Stanley Cup expectations, GM Kyle Dubas and the Leafs brass have little room for error. Count former Toronto GM Brian Burke among those who would jettison Nylander as soon as possible if they were in Dubas’ shoes. Burke said on Sportsnet today that the front-loaded nature of Nylander’s contract should allow the team to move him and he expects that trade to occur this off-season. Burke acknowledges that Nylander is a talented player, but doesn’t agree with his nearly $7MM yearly cap hit and feels he is too similar to other players on the Leafs’ roster and considers him to be a costly “surplus player”. Whether Dubas and company agree with that assessment remains to be seen, but a Nylander trade this summer is certainly not out of the question.

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