Maple Leafs Rumors

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR is looking at every NHL team and giving a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We’re currently covering the Atlantic Division, next up is the Maple Leafs.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Current Cap Hit: $90,148,437 (over the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Matthew Knies (one year, $925K)

Knies is quickly looking like one of the better-value picks of the 2021 draft. He debuted for the Leafs late in the 2022-23 season after his sophomore campaign at the University of Minnesota and has since skated almost exclusively in top-six roles. He has 76 career points in 139 games, second in the draft among non-first rounders behind the Lightning’s J.J. Moser. Luckily for Toronto, his strong performance won’t activate any performance bonuses in his contract – all of his ELC compensation is through base salary and signing bonuses. However, that will incentivize Knies to push for more money in contract negotiations this summer after agreeing to limit his earning potential through his first few NHL seasons.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Jani Hakanpää ($1.47MM, UFA)
F Pontus Holmberg ($800K, RFA)
F Steven Lorentz ($775K, UFA)
F Mitch Marner ($10.903MM, UFA)
F Max Pacioretty ($874K, UFA)
F Nicholas Robertson ($875K, RFA)
F John Tavares ($11MM, UFA)

After his 2023-24 campaign with the Stars ended prematurely due to a knee injury, the Leafs picked up Hakanpää as a cheap shutdown option on the right side (but not without some lengthy drama). Lingering knee issues limited him to just a pair of appearances back in November, though, and it’s all but certain he won’t return this season. Holmberg likely doesn’t have a ton of room left to grow at age 26, but the versatile Swede has been a nice fit in Toronto’s bottom six this season and has even been elevated to the second line with John Tavares on brief occasions. He’s averaging north of 13 minutes per game and is encroaching on his career high in points, so he’ll likely be brought back on a low-cost deal in the $1MM range.

Lorentz has been a nice pickup after a successful training camp tryout, appearing in nearly every game for the Leafs after serving as a frequent healthy scratch for the Panthers last year. He’s scored 14 points in 63 games while leading the team’s forwards with 156 hits, so it stands to reason they’ll try to bring him back on a sub-$1MM deal. Pacioretty, also a PTO pickup, seems like he’ll be one-and-done in Toronto after continued injury troubles have limited him to 13 points in 37 games, failing to hold onto a top-six job (and posting subpar defensive metrics when doing so). Robertson requested a trade last summer and, after it didn’t come to fruition, has seen his offensive production drop slightly from last year. He could be a non-tender option if the Leafs can’t find a taker for his signing rights.

The big fish are unquestionably the duo of Marner and Tavares. The former has had a spectacular campaign and still has a chance to finally crack the 100-point mark for the first time in his career, leading the Leafs in scoring with 80 points through 64 games. He’s also been Toronto’s most-deployed forward on the penalty kill this season at 2:16 per game. Easily the Leafs’ most valuable skater this season, no extension is imminent – especially after his name was thrown out in trade talks for Mikko Rantanen at the deadline. Pending his playoff performance, Toronto will likely need to step into the $13MM range annually on a max-term deal to keep him from looking elsewhere on the open market. Tavares is still chugging along with 56 points in 58 games in his age-34 season but is in line for a multi-million dollar pay cut next season, wherever he ends up. The former captain is open to continuing negotiations down the stretch and shouldn’t exceed the $8MM threshold on what’s likely to be a three-to-four-year pact.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Matt Benning ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Calle Järnkrok ($2.1MM, UFA)
F Scott Laughton ($1.5MM, UFA)
F Bobby McMann ($1.35MM, UFA)
F Ryan Reaves ($1.35MM, UFA)
G Anthony Stolarz ($2.5MM, UFA)

Benning and Reaves won’t be brought back at the end of their deals – if they’re even still in Toronto at that point. The former hasn’t suited up for the Leafs after they acquired him from the Sharks early this season in the Timothy Liljegren trade. Toronto waived him shortly after the deal, and after there were no takers on the wire, they sent him to their AHL affiliate. The 30-year-old righty has played just 21 NHL games since the beginning of last year and has just eight points in 33 AHL games. Reaves, a last-of-his-kind enforcer, hasn’t captured an everyday role and even landed on waivers last week to open up some pre-deadline financial flexibility.

Järnkrok was a solid depth pickup for the Leafs in free agency in 2022, although injuries have significantly hampered his availability over the past two years. He just got back into the lineup this month after missing most of the year following groin surgery. He’ll be 34 next summer and could likely replicate his current AAV, likely even with a slight raise amid a rising cap, on a short-term deal. Toronto just picked up Laughton at the deadline from the Flyers, who are retaining half of his full $3MM cap hit. The consistent 30-to-40-point center likely won’t be in line for a pay cut barring a disastrous 2025-26 outing.

McMann and Stolarz are the two names likely to see considerable increases on their next deals. The former is a late bloomer, but now at age 28 has emerged as a legitimate top-nine piece. He’s scored at a 23-goal pace per 82 games over the last two seasons and could conceivably sniff the $4MM mark on his next deal. Stolarz, who will set a new career-high in starts this year and is tied for second in the league with a .920 SV%, stands to double his cap hit on a short-term deal considering how quickly salaries for 1A tandem netminders are rising.

Signed Through 2026-27

D Simon Benoit ($1.35MM, UFA)
D Brandon Carlo ($3.485MM, UFA)
F David Kämpf ($2.4MM, UFA)
D Philippe Myers ($850K in 2025-26 and 2026-27, UFA)

None of the players in this group are true impact pieces outside of potentially Carlo, who the Leafs managed to snag from the rival Bruins at the deadline with a decent chunk of salary retention despite there being two years left on his deal. A longtime bona fide top-four shutdown righty in Boston, he’s the Hakanpää upgrade they were looking for and will remain under contract for Toronto at an under-market-value price. Whether his level of play holds up enough for a pay rise at age 30 in 2027 remains to be seen.

Benoit and Myers’ term means the Leafs don’t have to worry about building out their depth defense. Both will likely alternate between bottom-pairing usage and nights in the press box for the remainder of their deals. Kämpf gives Toronto security at the fourth-line center slot, but that’s a steep price tag for his meager offensive production (10 points in 52 games), even considering the pending salary cap rise and his shorthanded deployment. It’s not expensive enough to truly be classified as an anchor deal, but his deal sticks out as an inefficiency on the Leafs’ books.

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