Atlantic Notes: Red Wings, Lightning, Bruins
The Detroit Red Wings are apparently talking more with Darren Helm after many analysts figured his time in Detroit was up. This all changed after Steven Stamkos was locked up in an eight-year deal with the Lightning. Craig Custance tweets that both Helm and the Wings will talk until tomorrow when he becomes an unrestricted free agent. An afterthought after Drew Miller signed a one-year extension, Helm could fill a need at center now that Stamkos is off the market, though it will not be the type of production Stamkos would have generated. Helm, 29, has spent his entire career with the Red Wings.
Nick Cotsonika wonders where the Red Wings go from here after not even getting a chance to talk with Stamkos. Cotsonika reports that Stamkos would have been the first bona-fide superstar signing for Detroit in quite some time, and that a quarter-century of success has its drawbacks in terms of not drafting generational talent due to having lower draft picks. The Red Wings, Cotsonika writes, will have to be deft at not only acquiring the right free agent, but outbidding other teams without overpaying.
Other Central Division notes:
- Speaking of Stamkos, Kevin McGran writes how the 25-year-old never intended to leave Tampa in the first place. Though he had the chance to be a “hometown hero,” Stamkos opted to stay with the Lightning where the opportunity to win a Cup remains very strong. McGran reports that not only did Stamkos sign for a very cap friendly $8.5MM, he did so knowing it was about $3MM less than what he could have received on the open market.
- DJ Bean reports that the Bruins would have preferred to trade Dennis Seidenberg instead of buying out his contract. Bean writes that a source told him that general manager Don Sweeney never approached Seidenberg with a trade scenario. Seidenberg’s contract included a no trade clause until December. Bean surmises that this either meant no one was interested in taking Seidenberg’s contract or if willing to take it, they would have expected a return similar to the Blackhawks Bryan Bickell trade that included Teuvo Teravainen.
Thursday Buyout Waivers: Boll, Korpikoski, Carle, Seidenberg, Greene, Jackman
Today is the last day to place players on waivers for the purposes of buying out their contract in advance of Friday’s free agency period. Here are the players that are on the waiver wire.
Jared Boll (Columbus) – The Blue Jackets announced that they will buy out the final year of his deal. The enforcer played in just 30 games last year, picking up a goal and two assists with 61 PIMS. The buyout will carry a cap charge of $567K in each of the next two seasons.
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet reports that Lauri Korpikoski, Matt Carle, Dennis Seidenberg, Matt Greene, and Barret Jackman are also all on buyout waivers.
Korpikoski (Edmonton) played in 71 games with the Oilers last season – his first with the team – collecting 10 goals and 12 assists. The 29 year old has 181 career points in 540 NHL games, split between the Rangers, Coyotes, and Oilers. Edmonton will carry a cap hit of $500K in 2016-17 and $1MM in 2017-18 as a result of the buyout.
Carle (Tampa Bay) is by far the biggest of the buyouts. He collected just 9 points in 64 games last year despite collecting a $5.5MM salary. He has 45 goals and 237 assists in 724 career games between San Jose, Philadelphia, and Tampa. The Lightning will be charged with a cap hit of $1.833M for the next four years.
Seidenberg (Boston) has spent the last four years with the Bruins. In 2015-16, he played in 61 games, picking up a goal and 11 helpers. In 758 games split between the Flyers, Coyotes, Hurricanes, Panthers, and Bruins, he has 224 career points. Boston will carry a cap hit of $1.167M in 2016-17, 2018-19, and 2019-20 as well as a $2.167MM cap charge in 2017-18.
Greene (Los Angeles) played in just three games with the Kings and missed the rest of the year with shoulder problems. He has played in 589 career games with Edmonton and LA, picking up 78 points and 644 PIMS. The Kings will have a cap charge of $833K for each of the next 4 years.
Update: Pierre LeBrun of TSN/ESPN reports that Greene’s waiving may not result in a buyout after all.
Jackman (Nashville) played his first season with the Preds last year after spending parts of 13 seasons with St. Louis. Last year, he had a goal and four assists in 73 games while playing a smaller role as the season progressed. In his career, he has 186 points and 1,102 PIMS in 876 games. The Predators will be charged with a cap hit of $667K for each of the next two seasons.
Players that have a no-move clause in their contracts do not have to go through the waiver process to be bought out. The deadline for those moves to happen is 4:00 PM CST.
The Steven Stamkos Contract And Its Long Term Effects
Had it happened at any point over the last year, Tampa Bay captain Steven Stamkos re-signing with the Lightning would have been the top story of the day and dominated the conversation. However, on a day where big names were being traded left, right, and center, the Markham-native forgoing unrestricted free agency seemed like a side note.
Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports the structure of Stamkos’ new contract being heavily bonus-laden: Stamkos will make a $1MM salary with the rest in bonuses. Friedman has the salary at five years of $9.5MM, followed by $7.5MM and two years of $6.5MM. That’s a total of $68MM over 8 years, for a cap hit of $8.5MM, which is only $1MM higher than his expiring contract.
It’s a similar structure to the contracts of David Clarkson and Ryan O’Reilly, with great benefits to the player in the event of a lockout or buyout: Stamkos will still get the signing bonus money if the NHL goes through another lockout in 2023 at the expiration of the current CBA. As well, should the Lightning ever want to buy him out (don’t laugh, they bough out Vincent Lecavalier), it would cost the team $2.83MM per season. That’s 283% of his actually salary. (Buyout calculation done on General Fanager).
The feel-good aspect of the signing is this: Stamkos took less money to stay than he could have gotten on the open market (not factoring taxes). He wants to retire a member of the Lightning. In the Lightning’s press release, Stamkos was quoted as saying “it’s not often that a player gets the chance to spend his career in one organization and I am hopeful that this agreement sets me on that path”.
However, the part that is going to make Lightning fans nervous is how it will affect the team around Stamkos. The team has $9.3MM in space for next season. However, leading scorer Nikita Kucherov still needs a new contract after being qualified earlier this week, as does two-way winger Alex Killorn. Those two contracts are doable; it’s next summer where it could get ugly. Top defenceman Victor Hedman, both starting goalie Ben Bishop and goalie-of-the-future Andrei Vasilevskiy, and forwards Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson and Ondrej Palat will all see their contracts expire.
One of the goalies will likely be traded before then, but the rest of the group will cost serious money to keep together. Defenceman Matt Carle has two years left at $5.5MM and figures to be traded or bought out to save space for the upcoming group of free agents. This is also where gritty winger Ryan Callahan‘s contract is going to hurt. Callahan will make $5.8MM annually until 2020, but scored just 28 points in 73 games last season and is on the wrong side of 30.
Wily GM Steve Yzerman will have his hands full again this season, after masterfully handling the Drouin and Stamkos sagas last season. It’s going to be a very interesting year for the Lightning and their fans.
Steven Stamkos Stays With Tampa Bay
According to Bob McKenzie, Steven Stamkos has decided to stay in Tampa Bay and re-sign with his current club. McKenzie reports that the deal is an eight-year contract, with an average annual value (and thus cap-hit) of $8.5MM.
After all the speculation about whether or not Stamkos would return to his hometown (kind of) in Toronto, or perhaps take big money to go to Detroit and replace Pavel Datsyuk it ends up being a little anti-climactic for the 26-year old superstar.
During a time in which Edmonton and Montreal were shipping their own stars out of town, the Lightning have managed to hang on to theirs. If the team had waited until Friday, they would no longer have been able to offer the eighth year, a clear advantage over the rest of the league.
For Stamkos, he may have left some money on the table to go back to the only club he’s ever played for, but he’ll still be earning a hefty salary for almost a decade. $8.5MM puts him into the top-10 in the league right between Corey Perry and Claude Giroux. His age, production and ability to play center ice probably would have gotten upwards of $9MM on the open market, but the Lightning must have made a pretty convincing case that they were still building towards a championship; their back-to-back deep playoff runs might have something to do with it.
The deal will also include a full no-movement clause, according to Ken Campbell of The Hockey News, giving Stamkos the stability he needs to build a life in Tampa Bay and with the Lightning for the next eight years.
We had Stamkos as the #1 UFA available for this offseason, and predicted he would stay with the Lightning for an eight-year, $72MM deal. We were just $4MM off, as his deal will come in at $68MM.
P.K. Subban Traded For Shea Weber
Following the blockbuster trade of Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson, Nick Kypreos of Sportsnet reports that P.K. Subban has been traded for Nashville defenceman Shea Weber.
Long rumored to be on the market, Subban has been a lightning rod for speculation over the past few weeks. While many thought a young crop of prospects might have been the return for the former Norris trophy winner, instead it’s the three-time 20 goal scoring defenseman Weber headed to Montreal.
By all accounts, this is a shocking trade that doesn’t seem to improve Montreal much in the short or long term. While Subban is owed $9MM per season for the next six, Weber is due $7.8MM for the next ten years, after Nashville matched an offer sheet signed by the Philadelphia Flyers in 2012. Weber is also about to turn 31 and has seen a steep decline in both possession numbers and his overall play in recent years.
Subban, almost four years Weber’s junior, heads to a club coming off a deep playoff run and will probably pair up with the responsible and Norris-nominated Roman Josi to form one of the best pairings in the league. Even while in a ‘down year’, Subban put up 51 points and is still considered an elite offensive defenseman.
After dealing away Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen last season, Nashville was criticized for giving up their future on the blueline, while Weber was stagnating in the top pairing. This deal fixes that, and gives the Predators the best top-4 in the league: Subban, Josi, Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis.
Free Agent Profile: Andrew Ladd
If you’re looking for intangibles like playoff experience, leadership and grit, Andrew Ladd might be your highest ranked free agent. It doesn’t hurt that the two-time Stanley Cup champion is also a five-time twenty goal scorer and has put up at least 46 points in six straight seasons. The big winger is a work horse, averaging close to twenty minutes a night and playing against the other teams’ top forwards.
Just 30-years old, Ladd has a lot more good hockey left in him and will look to score a big contract this summer. With over 200 career goals, and almost no recent injury history teams won’t be too afraid of giving him a long-term deal to help lead their club. We ranked him at #6 on our Top 50 UFA list.
Potential Suitors
After a report came out Tuesday morning listing the Islanders, Canadiens, Lightning and Predators as four of the teams pursuing Ladd, many fans started to imagine him as part of their squad. The Maple Ridge, BC native has always been thought of as a leader, wearing the ‘C’ for the Winnipeg Jets until his mid-season trade last year.
If the Canadiens are serious, Ladd would become the second former Blackhawk added this offseason as they recently signed Andrew Shaw to a six-year deal after acquiring his rights at the draft. While Montreal currently has Max Pacioretty entrenched as the top line left winger, Ladd could provide a huge upgrade on the second line. Skating alongside Alex Galchenyuk (if Montreal decides he’s still a center) for instance could make a pretty imposing duo for teams to try and control.
The Lightning are an interesting club to hear, as they would presumably be putting all their effort into re-signing top free agent Steven Stamkos. The could possibly be a backup plan for the team if they’re to lose their current captain. As the season wore on Stamkos played more and more on the wing, a spot that Ladd could fill alongside Tyler Johnson.
Expected Contract
Despite coming off a somewhat down year, we estimated Ladd’s contract at six years, $37.5MM. That would give him an AAV of $6.25MM, a substantial upgrade over his last deal that paid him $4.4MM per season. Early reports are that the Ladd camp is playing things slowly, waiting for the Stamkos situation to resolve itself before really throwing himself to the wolves.
As teams miss on the top names of Stamkos, Milan Lucic and Kyle Okposo, some may end up getting into a bidding war for Ladd. Don’t be surprised if you hear potential numbers that break $40MM in regards to Ladd, though whichever team signs him may regret it when he’s a 35-year old. If he brings another Stanley Cup in the meantime, they might just not care that much.
Free Agent Notes: Ladd, Martin, Lucic
It’s that time of year again in the NHL, where rumors and speculation run rampant. Last night, after a report from Jimmy Murphy of VICE Sports indicated the Bruins were preparing an offer sheet for Jets’ defenceman Jacob Trouba, the Twitterverse went wild with speculation and conjecture. If the Bruins are indeed preparing a sheet, it would have to be for the maximum compensation, four first-round picks, as the team doesn’t own their second or third rounders for 2017. A tough pill to swallow to be sure, even if Trouba is the top pairing blueliner they think he is. More news about the upcoming free agent market:
- Darren Dreger wakes us this morning with a report that the Islanders, Canadiens, Lightning and Predators are all in the hunt for Andrew Ladd. As the Stamkos Extravaganza begins (and quite possibly ends) this Friday, the Ladd camp is moving slowly and assessing possible fits before really getting into any negotiations with teams.
- Matt Martin, another interesting name on the market is getting a lot of calls, writes Arthur Staple of Newsday. Detroit, Toronto, Montreal, Boston, Los Angeles and Calgary have all reached out already, making the bottom-six winger one to watch over the next few days.
- Among the chatter yesterday was talk of Milan Lucic having agreed to a deal with the Edmonton Oilers, and while this seems like it’s a little ahead of itself, it’s at least something to keep an eye on. Gene Principe of Sportsnet, among others, reported that he’s heard Lucic is probably headed to Edmonton, but can’t guarantee it.
Full List of Players Who Did Not Receive a Qualifying Offer
The deadline to make a qualifying offer to a restrict free agent ended at 5pm today. Below is a list of players who did not receive an offer and sorted by team for easy reference. Any player that did not receive a qualifying offer is eligible to be an unrestricted free agent on July 1st.
(as of writing the Toronto Maple Leafs were the only team not to confirm which players received QOs)
Anaheim Ducks
F Matt Bailey, F Brandon Pirri, F Charles Sarault, D Kevin Gagne, and D Martin Gernat.
Arizona Coyotes
F Sergei Plotnikov, , D Philip Samuelsson, F Christian Thomas, D Kevin Connauton, D Jarred Tinordi, D Klas Dahlbeck, and G Niklas Treutle
Boston Bruins
F Landon Ferraro and F Brett Connolly.
Buffalo Sabres
F Alex Guptill, F Colin Jacobs, F Jack Nevins, and Nathan Lieuwen.
Calgary Flames
F Kenny Agostino, F Bill Arnold, F Joe Colborne, F Turner Elson, F Josh Jooris, F Drew Shore, F Bryce Van Brabant, G Joni Ortio, and Kevin Poulin.
Carolina Hurricanes
F Zach Boychuk, F Anthony Camara, F Dane Fox, F Carter Sandlak, F Justin Shugg, D Danny Biega, D Michal Jordan, D Rasmus Rissanen, and G Rasmus Tirronen.
Snapshots: Blackhawks, Lightning, Vanek, Higgins
The Blackhawks may no longer be in salary cap hell, but they are certainly thinner up front writes the Chicago Sun-Times Mark Lazerus. With Andrew Shaw being dealt to Montreal, both Bryan Bickell and Teuvo Teravainen off to Carolina, and Andrew Ladd hitting free agency, the Hawks have a number of open spots to shore up. While Chicago can now collectively breathe under the repressive Cap that has had them selling off parts since the summer of 2010, the casualties have come in the way of losing skill players. Lazerus has the Blackhawks possibly bringing back Brian Campbell, who could carry a $2MM/yr cap hit. Meanwhile, the bottom six forwards would look very different than the pedigree most Hawks fans are accustomed to. Lazerus lists Dale Weise and Tomas Fleischmann as potential candidates to return, while naming P.A. Parenteau or Sam Gagner as possible options to add in free agency.
In other league news:
- The Lightning have tendered qualifying offers to Yanni Gourde, Kristers Gudlevskis, Alex Killorn, Nikita Kucherov, Tye McGinn, Vladislav Namestnikov, and Nikita Nesterov tweets Erik Eriendsson. In the meantime, general manager Steve Yzerman has a number of decisions to make as the free agency window opens on Friday. Steven Stamkos is still the top priority as teams are lining up to make their pitch. But the equally intriguing angle is what to do with goaltender Ben Bishop. Entering the final year of a contract with a $5.95MM cap hit, Bishop was reportedly working on contract specifics after the Flames were given permission to do so. That was scrapped as soon as the Flames acquired Brian Elliott from the Blues.
- Jason Brough reports that both the Canucks and Rangers may have interest in free agent Thomas Vanek. Though Vanek would be a backup plan to the higher tier free agents, namely Milan Lucic and Loui Eriksson, he could be a decent pickup at a reasonable price for both teams seeking scoring help. Vanek had 41 points (18-23) and will see a much lower offer than the three-year/$19.5MM offer he received from Minnesota, who bought him out last week.
- Elliotte Friedman tweets that Canucks winger Chris Higgins was placed on waivers for the purposes of being bought out. According to CapFriendly, the cap hit would be $833,333 through the 2017-18 season. CBS Sports listed Higgins as one of their buyout candidates, and the Vancouver Sun reported the Canucks actively shopping Higgins back in January. Higgins had 4 points (3-1) in 33 games last season.
Free Agent Profile: Steven Stamkos
In the salary cap era, it is extremely rare that legitimate star players make it to the free agent market. It’s also very rare that high end players become unrestricted free agents in the prime of their careers. Both of these apply to Tampa Bay’s Steven Stamkos, making his potential entry into Friday’s opening of free agency the most highly awaited in quite some time.
Last season, Stamkos played in 77 games with the Lightning, scoring 36 goals, good for a tie for the 7th most in the NHL. He also added 28 assists for a total of 64 points which was two shy of the team lead (Nikita Kucherov had 66). Both of those represented drops from 2014-15, where he had 72 points (43-29-72) while playing all 82 contests.
Late in the year, Stamkos was diagnosed with blood clots which cost him the final few games of the regular season as well as all but Tampa Bay’s final postseason game, a loss to the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins. While he was able to return, there will still be some questions as to his long-term health; is this now behind him or will it have the potential to linger or recur over the course of a long-term contract?
There’s no denying that Stamkos is among the best goal scorers in the game today and in an era where goals are at a premium, that can only stand to help Stamkos and agent Don Meehan in their quest to secure a new contract. Over the last 5 seasons, he has the second most goals in the NHL with 193, only behind Washington’s Alexander Ovechkin (224). However, Ovechkin has played in 38 more games over that span; if you break their goal totals into a goals-per-game rate, they’re nearly identical with Ovechkin at 0.615 per game and Stamkos at 0.592. Suffice it to say, he’s among the best at putting the puck in the net.
While Stamkos spent a big chunk of last year on the right wing, his natural position is center and that positional flexibility will certainly help his case as well. However, he has also made it known that he sees himself as a center and would like to return to playing that position moving forward.
Potential Suitors
To quickly sum it up, anyone with around $10MM or more in cap space or close to that amount that could use a top line sniper. If that sounds like just about every team in the league, it should, as that’s about how many will express some level of interest.
Buffalo is reportedly going to be “all in” when it comes to chasing Stamkos while Detroit now has the money to get into the bidding after shedding the retired Pavel Datsyuk’s contract over the weekend. Toronto is also likely to try to lure Stamkos to his hometown while Tampa Bay is attempting to re-sign him as well. Also, John Wawrow of AP reports that Boston and Vancouver expressed an interest in Stamkos over the weekend.
That’s only a shortlist of who will be courting Stamkos as well as more than half the league should make a pitch during the interview period between now and the opening of free agency on July 1st.
Expected Contract
We rated Stamkos as the top unrestricted free agent in our Top 50 list and have projected a max-term contract of eight years. For that to happen, Stamkos must sign prior to the opening of free agency.
While we have him taking that deal with Tampa Bay, GM Steve Yzerman told TSN’s Frank Seravelli that a sign-and-trade option to get Stamkos his eight years while getting an asset in return is also a possibility. We think he’ll take $9MM per year – less than he could get on the open market – to stick with the Lightning but if he does get to market, a cap hit in the double digit millions per year is a very realistic possibility.