Offseason Keys: Tampa Bay Lightning
The offseason is now in full swing with the draft complete and free agency now underway. What storylines lie ahead around the league in the weeks to come? Our Offseason Keys series continues with a look at the Tampa Bay Lightning.
After missing the playoffs in 2016-17, Tampa Bay was looking to get back into Stanley Cup contention. While they fell short of that, it was still a successful season as they won the Atlantic Division while making it to the Eastern Conference Final before being eliminated by the eventual champions in Washington. They’ve already taken care of two key items on their summer to-do list with the re-signing of J.T. Miller and Ryan McDonagh‘s extension; here are three other keys to their offseason.
Kucherov Extension Talks
Two summers ago, the Lightning held the cards when it came to then-RFA winger Nikita Kucherov. He didn’t have arbitration rights, no teams want to sign offer sheets, and the team had limited cap room. That forced a three-year, $14.3MM bridge deal with the third season being 2018-19 which makes him eligible for a contract extension as of July 1st.
It’s safe to say that the 25-year-old now holds the cards. Kucherov is coming off a 100-point season and has firmly established himself as a premier winger in the league (if not the premier winger). He will also be arbitration-eligible next summer and if he wants, he can simply file, go to the hearing, and get a one-year deal that will take him to unrestricted free agency.
That’s certainly not the route that GM Steve Yzerman will want to go. The question will be how much will it cost to get him on a long-term extension? While center Steven Stamkos set the bar two years ago when he signed for $8.5MM but it’s quite likely that Kucherov will cost more than that on his next contract. It’s not impossible to think he could surpass the $10MM mark and more than double his current cap hit. They may not get a deal done this summer but expect a lot of talks to occur in the weeks and months to come.
Free Up Long-Term Cap Room
Knowing that a new and much more expensive deal for Kucherov is on the horizon, Yzerman is going to have to look to free up some long-term space. As things stand, the team already has over $56MM on the books for 2019-20 per CapFriendly and that only includes 11 players. If Kucherov gets more than $10MM on an extension, that could present the Lightning with a situation where they’ll be looking to fill out nearly half their roster with only $13MM or so to spend. That’s not a palatable situation to work with. At some point, they’re going to have to move a core player out.
One player who has been speculated as someone that could move is center Tyler Johnson. However, his full no-trade clause kicked in on July 1st which could affect any deal. He has a more than manageable $5MM cap hit for six more years and with the center market as dried up as it is, they could get quite the return. While moving him would take a key piece out of their lineup, Miller can also play down the middle as can Brayden Point (also an RFA next year).
While winger Alex Killorn has been quite consistently productive in a secondary role over the past five years, he could be deemed too pricey at $4.45MM through 2022-23. However, he already has a full no-trade clause in place that could complicate things. He wouldn’t bring back as much in a return as Johnson but moving him could allow them to keep their depth down the middle. Veteran winger Ryan Callahan has a shorter-term deal to work with ($5.8MM through 2019-20) but his injury troubles will make him difficult to move.
At any rate, Tampa Bay is going to have to move out a notable player or two in the somewhat near future. If they plan to make a splash in free agency this summer, they may have to move someone out now in order to do so. If not, they can defer acting on this until next offseason but they’ll really be under the gun at that time.
Long-Term Stability On Defense
While the team already has seven defenders signed for next season (plus RFA Slater Koekkoek still to sign), only three are signed beyond the next 12 months in Victor Hedman, McDonagh, and Mikhail Sergachev. Three others are set to become unrestricted free agents next summer which could result in a fairly significant amount of turnover in a short period of time.
With that in mind, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Yzerman seeking younger rearguards in any offseason trade discussions. While 2017 first-rounder Cal Foote figures to be in the mix a year from now, there isn’t anyone else that’s really on the verge of making an NHL push so they will need to add. Their back end is pretty well set for 2018-19 and should be in good shape with McDonagh now being there for the full season but this is a group that doesn’t have a lot of stability beyond then which is something that the team should be looking to address.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Slater Koekkoek Re-Signs With Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning have locked up one of their restricted free agents, signing Slater Koekkoek to a one-year contract worth $865K. The deal is one-way, and could potentially take Koekkoek to Group VI unrestricted free agency next summer if he’s not given an opportunity with the Lightning this year. He needs just four games for the team to retain his rights as an RFA, but with a crowded blue line in Tampa Bay, it’s not a guarantee that he receives the chance.
Koekkoek, 24, was a first round pick of the Lightning in 2012, selected 10th overall. He was expected to become a top-pairing two-way defender, but hasn’t quite made the impact Tampa Bay had hoped. In 76 games he has recorded 13 points, but has now been bumped down the depth chart by additions like Ryan McDonagh. Tampa Bay is committed to contending for the Stanley Cup right now, and can’t wait around hoping Koekkoek continues to develop
If he’s going to ever fulfill his potential, he’ll have to take advantage of the next opportunity he’s given. If not, there might have to be a change of scenery for the left-handed defenseman. The signing doesn’t pose much risk to the Lightning as he can be completely buried in the minor leagues, but that’s certainly not the outcome GM Steve Yzerman is hoping for.
Tampa Bay Signs Cameron Gaunce, Kevin Lynch
The Tampa Bay Lightning have added another option on the back end. The team has announced a one-year, two-way deal with defenseman Cameron Gaunce. Salary terms have not been disclosed, but it seems unlikely that Gaunce would secure anything above the minimum of $650K at the NHL level. The same could be said for Kevin Lynch, who also has signed a one-year, two-way contract with remain with the team.
Gaunce, 28, has bounced around the minor leagues since being selected in the second round ten years ago by the Colorado Avalanche. Playing last season for the Cleveland Monsters, he collected 24 points in 67 games but failed to make it up to the Columbus Blue Jackets for any games. In Tampa, he’ll almost surely be ticketed for the Syracuse Crunch for the entire season, and asked to lend a veteran hand to their minor league squad.
J.T. Brown Signs With Minnesota Wild
Enforcer J.T. Brown is heading home to Minnesota, as the veteran forward has signed with the Wild. The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports that it is a two-year deal and adds that he will make $675K this year and $700K next year for an AAV of $687.5K.
Brown spent 2017-18 playing for two teams as he began the year with the Tampa Bay Lightning, where he had played for the previous five years of his NHL career. This year, with the Lightning overflowing with depth and his role declining, Tampa Bay placed him on waivers, hoping he could be sent to the AHL, but was claimed by the Anaheim Ducks. He played 23 games for an injury-ravaged Anaheim team, producing three points.
With Minnesota, the 27-year-old should provide more depth for the team’s bottom line, which Minnesota is re-designing. The team already locked up bottom-line center Eric Fehr, signed veteran Matt Hendricks and allowed veteran Matt Cullen to move on to Pittsburgh.
Montreal Canadiens Sign Matthew Peca
The Montreal Canadiens have added one of the more interesting names on the free agent market, signing Matthew Peca to a two-year contract worth $1.3MM annually. Peca was a Group VI unrestricted free agent after failing to get a real chance to crack the lineup in Tampa Bay.
The 25-year-old managed to appear in just 10 games for the Lightning both this year and last. However, Peca made the most of his opportunity this year, posting two goals and five points in those 10 appearances. He was also impressive in his stint as a leader on the deep Syracuse Crunch roster in the AHL where the center posted 13 goals and 33 assists there.
While Peca has the skills to play the center position, a position of need, he is more than capable of filling a key wing position and could develop into a solid second or third-line option for Montreal or at worst, become a top AHL option for the Laval Rocket.
Ryan McDonagh Signs Seven-Year Extension With Tampa Bay Lightning
The Tampa Bay Lightning have done it again, extending one of their players for a reasonable cap hit. This time it is Ryan McDonagh, who has signed a seven-year extension that carries an average annual value of $6.75MM. The deal will kick in for the 2019-20 season, after the final year of his current contract.
The move allows Tampa Bay to keep their new defensive core. The team acquired McDonagh in a giant trade from the New York Rangers right at the trade deadline this year. The Rangers traded McDonagh, a dominant top-four shutdown defenseman along with J.T. Miller (who already signed an extension) for Vladislav Namestnikov, prospects Brett Howden and Libor Hajek, a 2018 first-round pick and a conditional second-round pick in 2019. While he was coming off an injury when he was traded, he came exactly as advertised, leading the defense’s second unit, while Victor Hedman manned the first.
The seven-year deal should run until McDonagh reaches 36 years of age. However, to get the veteraen defenseman at $6.75MM is a reasonable cost and much lower than some of the other defenseman who have recently signed such as Drew Doughty and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. McDonagh, who is solid two-way defenseman, didn’t post his best offensive numbers between both teams as he combined for four goals and 29 points, but a healthy full season in Tampa Bay should get him back to his regular numbers.
Tampa Bay still has to lock up superstar Nikita Kucherov, who is in the final year of his contract, although he will only become a restricted free agent next season if he gets there, although the general belief is that the Lightning fully expect to sign him to an extension in the next few months.
Chicago Blackhawks Sign Chris Kunitz, Cam Ward, Brandon Manning
The Chicago Blackhawks have signed three players immediately after free agency began, inking Chris Kunitz, Cam Ward and Brandon Manning. Kunitz and Ward will get one-year deals, while Manning has signed a two-year contract. Ward’s deal will pay $3MM and include a full no-trade clause.
Kunitz, who spent last season with Tampa Bay Lightning on their shutdown line, provides the Blackhawks with a veteran defensive presence, who still seems to be successful even at age 38. He, along with Ryan Callahan and Cedric Paquette, were responsible for shutting down teams’ top lines and were quite successful at it. The line was also adept at scoring as well as Kunitz scored 13 goals and totaled 29 points last season with Tampa Bay. The veteran also has lots of playoff success with his time with the Pittsburgh Penguins as he played for the franchise for nine years, winning three Stanley Cup titles.
Ward was less of a secret as the team had been rumored to be close to a deal with him for a few days already. The 13-year veteran, who played all his years in Carolina, moved into a backup role last year as he helped mentor former Blackhawk Scott Darling. However, despite that role, he still managed to play 43 games for the Hurricanes. The 34-year-old didn’t thrive as he finished with a 2.73 GAA and a .906 save percentage, but his experience and ability to handle a big load was critical for the Blackhawks who struggled after starter Corey Crawford went down for the season with a head injury in December last year. The team attempted to move forward with Anton Forsberg and Jeff Glass as their two goaltenders, but couldn’t make that work. Ward should provide more stability for the Blackhawks now.
Manning adds more defensive depth for the Blackhawks as the former Philadelphia Flyers defenseman has continued to increase his production over the course of his career as he scored seven goals and 19 points last season in 65 games and even played a more safety-conscious game this past season. However, his numbers also indicate that he’s just an adequate defender and is likely to fill the team’s need for bottom-six defenders.
Free Agent Notes: Holden, Ellis, Namestnikov, Wilson
The Vegas Golden Knights already surprised a few when they reached out and stole Paul Stastny away from Western Conference rival Winnipeg. However, the Golden Knights are apparently not done as The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reports that Vegas is the front-runner for unrestricted free agent defenseman Nick Holden.
Holden, who spent time with both the New York Rangers and Boston Bruins last season, would be a solid depth defenseman that could add to Vegas’ core. he averaged 19:00 ATOI between both clubs, but only posted four goals and 17 points on the year. However, the 31-year-old may be starting to show a decline in skills as he was a 34-point player in 2016-17 with the Rangers.
Incidentally, Holden is being pursued by two teams as the Boston Bruins are also vying for the blueliner’s services, according to Sportsnet’s Mark Spector. The Bruins, after all, gave up a third-round pick and low-end prospect Rob O’Gara at the deadline.
- LeBrun also mentions that while Nashville Predators defenseman Ryan Ellis, who will be a unrestricted free agent in one year, can sign an extension as of today. However, the scribe writes that Nashville isn’t there yet. They intend to reignite talks with Ellis and his representatives within the next one to two weeks. Nashville wants to keep Ellis in the fold at all costs as the team has put major emphasis on having a dominant four defense. The team already has P.K. Subban ($9MM AAV) and Mattias Ekholm ($3.75MM AAV) locked up for four years, while Roman Josi ($4MM AAV) is signed for another two years.
- The New York Rangers can breathe easier after the agent for restricted free agent Vladislav Namestnikov, Dan Milstein, refuted rumors that the forward was leaving for the KHL. Namestnikov, who was acquired from Tampa Bay at the trade deadline, but saw his playing time drop once he arrived in New York. After averaging 17:30 of ATOI as a Lightning, his playing time dropped to 15:43, along with his offensive production. After potting 20 goals with Tampa Bay, he managed just four points in 19 games with the Rangers. However, Milstein insists the rumors are not true and that Namestnikov believes playing in the NHL is a privilege and honor and an extension is in the works with the New York Rangers.
- Mike Harrington of The Buffalo News reports the Buffalo Sabres are currently working on re-signing winger Scott Wilson. The 26-year-old was picked up in a December trade this last season from the Detroit Red Wings and played a regular role as a bottom-six forward. After not scoring a point in 17 games with Detroit, he tallied six goals and 14 points in 49 games in Buffalo.
Free Agent Focus: Tampa Bay Lightning
Free agency is now less than a day from opening up and there are quite a few prominent players set to hit the open market while many teams have key restricted free agents to re-sign. Here is a breakdown of Tampa Bay’s free agent situation.
Key Restricted Free Agent: F Cedric Paquette — Nine points hardly seems like a lot of points for key restricted free agent, but the 24-year-old Paquette isn’t about offense. The defense-first forward has been a key part of the team’s bottom-six line, which included Ryan Callahan and Kunitz line that was constantly put against opponents’ top lines. Now that he’s been qualified, Paquette, who scored just five goals during the regular season (and one in the playoffs) might be more needed than ever with Kunitz likely headed elsehere. Regardless, he could be in line for a significant raise after making $812K last year on his two-year bridge deal. Now with arbitration rights, he could walk away with quite a bit more.
D Slater Koekkoek — The 24-year-old blueliner has worked hard to try and break into the deep defensive core of Tampa Bay and did manage to get into 34 games last season and avoid a trip down to the Syracuse Crunch, but Koekkoek’s usefulness came to an end after Tampa Bay acquired Ryan McDonagh at the trade deadline. From that point on, he appeared in just three regular season games and did not appear in the playoffs. While the team intends to bring him back, recent rumors that the team might consider trading the youngster are also a possibility. He made $800K last year on a one-year deal.
Other RFA’s: F Adam Erne.
Key Unrestricted Free Agents: Andrej Sustr — The 27-year-old depth defender could easily find himself on a new team with the amount of defenders under contract in Tampa Bay. The blueliner had been a regular on the Lightning’s defense over the past three years, but he found himself often a healthy scratch with the addition of players like Mikhail Sergachev, Jake Dotchin, Koekkoek as well as McDonagh. After making $1.95MM last season in the last of his restricted free agent years, the team must decide if they want to bring back the undrafted free agent they signed back in 2013.
Chris Kunitz — The 38-year-old winger was a big part of the Lightning’s shutdown line along with Callahan and Paquette in his one year with Tampa Bay, but there is little indication that Kunitz is expected return. Despite a productive season in which he tallied 13 goals and 29 points last season, rumors suggest he’s interested in a possible return to Pittsburgh.
Other UFA’s: D Mat Bodie, F Erik Condra, F Alex Gallant, D Jamie McBain, F Matthew Peca.
Projected Cap Space: The Lightning don’t have much cap space to work with this offseason as the team has just $5.3MM. On top of that, Tampa Bay has quite a few free agents they must deal with next year including Nikita Kucherov, McDonagh and Yanni Gourde to name a few, so they need to have as much cap room to maneuver with as possible. Despite their interest in John Tavares, don’t expect the team to dip heavily in the free agent market this year and more likely depend on their AHL depth to carry them through.
Bruins Show Interest In Slater Koekkoek
The Bruins have expressed an interest in Lightning pending RFA defenseman Slater Koekkoek, NBC Sports Boston’s Joe Haggerty reports (Twitter link). The tenth overall pick in 2012 has yet to progress beyond the level of a depth defenseman and could be a candidate for a change of scenery. However, Tampa Bay has been in contract talks with Koekkoek, per Joe Smith of The Athletic (via Twitter). Given that the two teams are division rivals, both Haggerty and Smith think a trade is unlikely although Haggerty suggests that the Oilers could be a landing spot for the 24-year-old if he winds up being dealt.