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Poll: Superstar Defensemen On The Move

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Much has been made recently about the futures of five All-Star defenseman who are slated for free agency in 2019. Drew Doughty is working toward an extension with the Los Angeles Kings. Oliver Ekman-Larsson is sitting on an offer from the Arizona Coyotes. The Nashville Predators have made re-signing Ryan Ellis their priority this off-season. Ryan McDonagh was unable to bring home a Stanley Cup for the favorite Tampa Bay Lightning after a deadline blockbuster. And all of this has somehow overshadowed the potential availability of the Ottawa Senators’ Erik Karlsson. 

All five of these superstar defenders could sign extensions on July 1st. Of course, they could all be dealt away even sooner. Doughty seems closest on a deal, but has strict salary demands that could end up souring one side or the other. Ekman-Larsson has always seemed loyal to the Coyotes, but is understandably concerned about the future of the team given their struggles throughout his career. Ellis too has been a loyal soldier for the Predators and an extremely underpaid one at that. He could make far more and play a far greater role elsewhere. McDonagh was acquired for the Bolts to make a title run this year and next, but beyond that point the team may not be able to afford him. Finally, Karlsson is the ultimate prize. He has expressed a desire to get fair market value on his next deal and polarizing Ottawa owner Eugene Melnyk seems unlikely to match.

So, as the off-season gets underway and these five know that their futures will be determined in the next twelve months, the question is how many re-sign and how many move on, either via trade or free agency? Which of these stars will don the same jersey in 2019-20 as they did in 2017-18?

Snapshots: Carlson, Ellis, Kovalchuk, Nash

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If John Tavares re-signs with the New York Islanders, Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson would become the undisputed top free agent on the market this summer. However, Carlson’s priority is also to re-sign with his current team and the Capitals’ current Stanley Cup run may only sell him on staying even more. Plus, the estimated cap increase could make it easier for Washington to retain their blue line leader. Yet, Carlson is unlikely to ignore what the open market might offer in a world with no Tavares and a higher cap ceiling. The 28-year-old defenseman could command much more from another team than he’ll likely be able to get from the Caps. The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun believes that one of the top suitors will be none other than Carlson’s current opposition, the Vegas Golden Knights. Despite their unforeseeable success this season, the Knights’ defensive corps is far from an elite unit and is in need of a leader. Although they have been connected to Erik Karlsson in the past, LeBrun opines that the easier route for Vegas may be to simply sign Carlson. The need, the cap space, and the connection to GM George McPhee may be enough to entice Carlson to make the cross-country trek. If the Knights are able to win the Stanley Cup, it would add insult to injury to steal both a title and a top player from the Capitals.

  • LeBrun also had the inside scoop on another defenseman, the Nashville Predators’ Ryan Ellis. Although Ellis is not a free agent until 2019, LeBrun learned from Nashville GM David Poile that signing Ellis to an extension will be the Predators’ top priority this summer. Citing the loss of Ryan Suter years ago, LeBrun says that Poile is no longer willing to wait on re-signing his key players. However, the negotiations with Ellis may prove to be more difficult than anticipated. Ellis has been one of the best values in hockey over the last five years at a cap hit of just $2.5MM. No one will blame the offensive defenseman for seeking top dollar in his next deal and he is more likely to find that on the open market.
  • One player who may not be as concerned about money is Ilya Kovalchuk. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that Kovalchuk’s main priority in returning to the NHL is to win the Stanley Cup. Kovalchuk is allegedly focused on finding a multi-year deal with a good fit. One possible suitor could be the New York Islanders, as Kovalchuk expressed to Dreger that he appreciated how then-GM Lou Lamoriello handled his sudden departure from New Jersey and shared that the two have maintained a positive relationship. Now that Lamoriello is in New York with more than enough cap space to sign Tavares and quite a few more, Kovalchuk could be a target. The KHL’s reigning leading scorer may sign with any team on July 1st.
  • One player who could be locked up before July 1st is Rick Nash. Boston Bruins GM Don Sweeney has expressed a desire to bring back several of his impending free agents, but has noted the reality that there is not enough space for all of them. The Bruins appear to have prioritized a new deal with their blockbuster trade deadline acquisition, as The Sports Hub’s Ty Anderson reports that Sweeney and Nash will continue negotiations next week. On the topic, Sweeney said “Rick indicated when he came to Boston that he was excited about the opportunity. He wants to win. He wants an opportunity to win. He felt badly, and certainly he’s not responsible for this, because he got injured.” What Nash feels badly about is likely both the drop-off in his play during the playoffs and the premature end to the Bruins season at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the second round. Nash suffered a concussion late in the regular season and never seemed to get back to 100%, but prior to his injury looked unstoppable on the Bruins’ second line with David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk. At the right price, it’s understandable why Sweeney and company would like to give Nash another chance to re-create that chemistry and help bring a Cup to Boston.

Exclusive Negotiating Rights Of 33 Draft Picks Expire

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The deadline for signing draft picks has come and gone, and unless more deals come in after the fact, 33 players—the same total as last year—will see their exclusive negotiating rights expire. With it they will either re-enter the 2018 draft for the final time or become free agents, depending on their age. Adam Mascherin is the highest picked player among those who will be headed back into the draft, selected 38th overall by the Florida Panthers two years ago. Below is the full list of players:

Anaheim Ducks:

F Tyler Soy (7th round, 2016)

Arizona Coyotes:

F Anton Karlsson (3rd round, 2014)
D David Westlund (6th round, 2014)

Buffalo Sabres:

D Vojtech Budik (5th round, 2016)
F Brandon Hagel (6th round, 2016)
D Austin Osmanski (7th round, 2016)

Calgary Flames:

D Adam Ollas Mattsson (6th round, 2014)

Carolina Hurricanes: 

C Hudson Elynuik (3rd round, 2016)
D Noah Carroll (6th round, 2016)

Chicago Blackhawks:

D Andreas Soderberg (5th round, 2014)

Colorado Avalanche:

G Maximilian Pajpach (6th round, 2014)

Dallas Stars:

D Miro Karjalainen (5th round, 2014)

Detroit Red Wings:

D Jordan Sambrook (5th round, 2016)
F Julius Vahatalo (6th round, 2014)

Florida Panthers:

G Hugo Fagerblom (7th round, 2014)
C Adam Mascherin (2nd round, 2016)

Los Angeles Kings:

D Jacob Friend (7th round, 2016)

Minnesota Wild:

D Pontus Sjalin (6th round, 2014)
D Brayden Chizen (7th round, 2016)

New Jersey Devils:

G Evan Cormier (4th round, 2016)

Philadelphia Flyers:

C Anthony Salinitri (6th round, 2016)

Pittsburgh Penguins:

D Connor Hall (3rd round, 2016)

San Jose Sharks:

D Mark Shoemaker (6th round, 2016)

Tampa Bay Lightning:

C Christopher Paquette (5th round, 2016)

Toronto Maple Leafs:

D Keaton Middleton (4th rond, 2016)
F J.J. Piccinich (4th round, 2014)
D Nicolas Mattinen (6th round, 2016)

Vancouver Canucks:

D Cole Candella (5th round, 2016)
F Jakob Stukel (6th round, 2016)
C Brett McKenzie (7th round, 2016)

Washington Capitals:

F Kevin Elgestal (7th round, 2014)
D Dmitri Zaitsev (7th round, 2016)

Winnipeg Jets:

C Jordan Stallard (5th round, 2016)

Poll: Impact Of The Estimated Cap Increase

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Earlier this week, Commissioner Gary Bettman and Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly spoke with the media about many different league topics. Perhaps the biggest news to come out of the press conference was Daly’s estimation of the salary cap for next season. Daly believes that the salary cap will fall somewhere between $78MM and $82MM, meaning that there will be a significant increase in the salary cap. The cap limit has increased by $2MM or less in each of the past three seasons, but the low point of the estimated range would already be a $3MM increase over the 2017-18 cap number. If it ends up near the top of the range, it will likely be the largest jump in the salary cap in league history.

Whatever the result, the cap increase will undoubtedly affect this off-season. Prior to Daly’s projection, teams like the Los Angeles Kings, Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks, and Tampa Bay Lightning were going to face an immense cap crunch this summer and likely would have been forced to shed salary. Those teams can now breathe easier. However, teams on the lower end of the salary spectrum who don’t spend to the cap, such as the Carolina Hurricanes and Arizona Coyotes, will find it even harder to catch up in a market that that has lessened its grip on the stronger, higher payroll teams. With a higher cap comes salary inflation, which is another struggle for small market teams. The cap increase may also allow for some of the bigger talked-about trades and free agent movement – John Tavares, Erik Karlsson, Phil Kessel, ect. –  to happen. However, the flip side is that a salary cap increase gives teams incentive to add, but not subtract and could lessen the amount of total trades we see this summer.

What do you think? Is this potentially historic increase in the salary cap ceiling a good thing for the league?

Ryan Callahan Out Five Months Following Shoulder Surgery

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The Tampa Bay Lightning let some coaches go today, and now have announced that they’ll likely be without Ryan Callahan for the beginning of the season as well. Callahan underwent surgery today on his shoulder, and will be out for approximately five months.

It’s been a rough few seasons for Callahan, who has fallen completely out of touch with the 20-goal, 40-point player of his youth. The former New York Rangers forward had just 18 points this season as he continued to battle injury and found himself on the fourth line. Still an effective energy player and penalty killer, he nevertheless is one of the most overpaid players in the league with a current cap hit of $5.8MM. The Lightning don’t seem to mind as Callahan is an effective part of their leadership group, but as they continue to navigate the salary cap it might become a problem.

This injury removes the possibility that Callahan could be bought out, and also likely keeps him out for at least the first month of the season. That makes the summer even tougher for GM Steve Yzerman, who will have to plan for his veteran forward’s eventual return and leave enough cap room to pay him once he comes off long-term injured reserve (if he ever receives that designation in the first place). The Lightning don’t have a ton of key free agents this summer other than J.T. Miller, but are looking at extensions to Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Yanni Gourde, Ryan McDonagh, Anton Stralman and Jake Dotchin in the summer of 2019.

Still, the focus from today’s surgery will be on Callahan and the work he’ll have to put in to return to the Lightning in time to help their 2018-19 season. The team is expected to be a contender for the Stanley Cup once again, and need as many depth forwards as possible to get through what should be a very competitive Atlantic Division. The Toronto Maple Leafs, Boston Bruins and Florida Panthers should still be competitive, while the Buffalo Sabres and Montreal Canadiens could take big steps forward. Even Detroit and Ottawa could bounce back if things go their way, meaning Tampa Bay can’t afford many more injuries like this, even to the players lower in their lineup.

Callahan’s absence does mean an opportunity for some other player, and the Lightning have several ready to make the leap. Anthony Cirelli likely secured a full-time position on the team with a good stretch run, and others like Boris Katchouk, Taylor Raddysh and Mathieu Joseph could be close to NHL-ready. Even with the team’s recent trade to acquire McDonagh from the New York Rangers, they still have a boatload of prospects that could be impact players in the NHL. The question will be how does the team fit Callahan back in after he returns from injury, especially if a younger player has performed well in his absence.

Rick Bowness, Brad Lauer Will Not Return As Coaches For Tampa Bay

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The Tampa Bay Lightning are making changes behind the bench. The team announced today that Rick Bowness has been relieved of his duties as assistant coach, while Brad Lauer has “mutually agreed to part ways” according to Frank Seravalli of TSN.

The Lightning ended up losing a heartbreaking series against the Washington Capitals, and are likely re-evaluating their entire organization. Bowness has been with the club for five seasons but will now have to look for new employment. That likely won’t take long, as he has been in a coaching position somewhere around the NHL for over three decades and holds the record for most games coached. He was the experienced hand for head coach Jon Cooper, who came into the role with little experience.

There is a chance that Bowness could even find himself in head coaching interviews over the next few weeks if opportunities arise, as he’s held the role multiple times before and—as Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet points out—was a finalist for a job as recently as 2016 with the Anaheim Ducks. There are also several openings at the AHL level, but for a coach who hasn’t worked in the minor leagues since 1991, that is likely off the table.

Lauer was the Tampa Bay “eye in the sky” this season, and had previously worked with the Ducks and Ottawa Senators in various positions. He could also be considered a candidate for the vacant AHL jobs, though he hasn’t held a head coaching position to this point.

Karri Ramo Expected To Return To KHL’s Avangard Omsk

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Former NHL goaltender Karri Ramo has his sights set on a return, but not across the Atlantic. Instead, Ramo is expected to remain in the KHL, but sign with former team Avangard Omsk in Russia. Ramo spent this season with Jokerit, a KHL squad in his native Finland, but Russian source Championat reports that Omsk will soon announce that they have brought back the talented keeper.

Ramo, 31, is coming off of such a strong season that there was speculation that there could be interest in the NHL even though he made only 18 regular season starts for Jokerit. Ramo shared the net with U.S. Olympian Ryan Zapolski this year, but made less than half as many starts as the veteran American. However, in his limited action, Ramo was easily the best “backup” in the KHL with a .930 save percentage and 1.94 GAA. Appearances aside, those numbers were good enough for thirteenth and seventh respectively in the KHL, yet somehow just a shade worse than Zapolski. Ramo’s time came in the postseason though; he was the hot hand and made six starts to Zapolski’s five and posted an incredible .954 save percentage and 1.31 GAA.

With Omsk, Ramo will return to the team that he starred for from 2009 to 2013. A sixth-round pick of the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2004, Ramo joined the Bolts as a rookie in 2006-07 and spent three years as the team’s primary backup. Ramo then left for the KHL in 2009 and quickly became on of the league’s top keepers, leading Avangard to four straight postseason appearances while posting a GAA of 2.11 or better in each season. Given his renewed value overseas, Ramo returned to the NHL in 2013 and split starts for the Calgary Flames for three seasons, but struggled to find the same success he had in Russia. In returning to Omsk, Ramo will be expected to solve the severe goaltending issues that plagued the team last season with the help of fellow new addition Igor Bobkov. Ramo will also reunite with former Calgary coach and recent Omsk hire Bob Hartley as the pair look to improve on a team that is lacking in high-end talent. A star goalie, strong defense, and experienced coaching could be all that Avangard need to make a run next season though.

Tyler Johnson's No-Trade Clause Kicks In July 1st

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Lightning center Tyler Johnson’s full no-trade clause kicks in at the beginning of free agency this summer, notes Roger Mooney of the Tampa Bay Times.  Tampa Bay does not have a lot of payroll flexibility heading into next season and has a possible long-term extension for winger Nikita Kucherov on the horizon so they may want to free up some funds at some point this offseason.  If that’s the case, they may look to do something sooner than later and with Johnson locked up through 2023-24 at a $5MM AAV, he’s someone that they will have to consider moving by the end of next month.  There should be no shortage of suitors considering he’s coming off a strong year with 50 points and plays a premium position that’s in high demand.

Nikita Kucherov Not Likely To Get Extension Immediately

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The Tampa Bay Lightning’s season is over and now the team must shift its focus for next season. And while the Lightning have a t0-do list for the upcoming season, don’t expect Nikita Kucherov’s extension to be among the top priorities for the team, writes The Athletic’s Joe Smith (subscription required).

Kucherov is in the last year of the bridge deal he signed in 2016 as a restricted free agent and will receive $4.77MM next year before reaching restricted free agency once again. The difference in the next negotiations is that the 24-year-old forward will have arbitration rights, giving him the leverage to potentially double his salary. An arbitrator could very likely side with a player who just put up 39 goals and tallied 100 points this season and reached the all-star game for the second time in his career.

However, Kucherov’s agent Dan Milstein says there haven’t been any talks of a new extension and he doesn’t expect any to start until after the 2018-19 season starts. After all, Kucherov isn’t going anywhere. Even with arbitration rights, Kucherov will be staying in Tampa Bay, but the Lightning will spend as much time as it can evaluating the play of Kucherov.

“He wants to stay in Tampa — he doesn’t want to go anywhere,” Milstein told The Athletic. “Worst-case, it’s arbitration, they’re not going to lose him. Both sides want him to be in Tampa.”

One possible reason is the way Kucherov struggled in the playoffs, especially in the final series before the Lightning were eliminated by the Washington Capitals in the Eastern Conference Finals. The lack of scoring from Kucherov and linemate Steven Stamkos were a major issue. While he put up solid 2018 playoff numbers (17 points in 17 games), most of those offensive numbers came in their first-round series against the New Jersey Devils as he scored five goals and five assists in five games. However, from that point on Kucherov struggled, managing just two goals in the next 12 games. He also admitted that he was not dealing with an injury in the playoffs.

“Definitely you want to score goals,” Kucherov said. “Sometimes, it just doesn’t happen, doesn’t go your way.”

Perhaps the lack of an extension will be a motivating factor for Kucherov. He is expected to take a 10-day trip to Russia (half the length of last year) before returning to Tampa Bay to begin training for next season.

Ryan Callahan Set To Undergo Shoulder Surgery

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Lightning winger Ryan Callahan will undergo shoulder surgery this offseason, the team announced (Twitter link).  The veteran had been out of the lineup on multiple occasions due to shoulder troubles, including two games in the opening round of the postseason against the Devils.  Callahan underperformed relative to his $5.8MM cap hit as he put up just 19 points in 67 regular season games and this operation will all but eliminate the possibility of a contract buyout as injured players are ineligible to be bought out.

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