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Restricted Free Agent Contract Projections: Kucherov, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Trouba

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Late in restricted free agency, there are still a number of highly skilled players who remain unsigned. These players generally lack leverage, because other teams behave cautiously given the compensation rules. Then consider that this late in the summer, most teams have their budgets set. If a restricted free agent is paid, it’s often to buy years of unrestricted free agency.

Even into August, there are still candidates to have those years controlled. Here’s a look at what kind of deals four of them may be pursuing.

  • Nikita Kucherov – Having just turned 23, Kucherov is coming off a 30 goal, 36 assist season, leading the Lightning with 66 points. In 2015, his season was nearly identical, with one fewer goal, and the same number of assists. Filip Forsberg is a year younger, but put up very similar offensive numbers for Nashville this year. Forsberg just signed a six year contract worth $6MM per year. Look for Kucherov to get a similar deal. Projection: 6 years, $36MM
  • Johnny Gaudreau – Just shy of 23, Gaudreau has 55 goals, 143 points, in 160 NHL games. This year, Gaudreau hit career highs of 30 goals and 48 points in 79 games. There has been talk of the Flames and Gaudreau pushing for a deal since February, with nothing to show for it. As Eric Francis notes in that link, the closest comparable is Vladimir Tarasenko, who is signed to an eight-year, $60MM contract. Still, there’s a case Gaudreau has actually shown more in the NHL than Tarasenko had before signing. The Flames are also more dependent on him, at least until someone like Sam Bennett breaks out. Projection: 8 years, $64MM
  • Hampus Lindholm – At 22, Lindholm led defensemen in Corsi Relative. That is, he increased his team’s share of the game’s shot attempts more than any defenseman to play 750 minutes. Lindholm’s problem is that NHL teams are often skeptical of these numbers. This leaves defensemen of similar ages and with similar scoring numbers as the most likely comparisons. Calgary’s Dougie Hamilton got $5.75MM per season last year, but he also plays the much scarcer right side, and Calgary traded assets for him. It would have been fairly embarrassing had he not been signed quickly. The Ducks will play hardball, but if they get Lindholm at under that price, it’ll be well worth it. Projection: 5 years, $25MM
  • Jacob Trouba – Trouba is 22 and well regarded around the league, but the reported debate over role will hurt him. As mentioned before, restricted free agents are paid usually when teams want to buy years of unrestricted free agency. If the Jets don’t believe that Trouba is ready for an increased role, it’s unlikely they’re in a rush to pay him for it. This has the looks of something bitter developing, but it’s most likely  he’ll get some sort of bridge deal. Projection: 2 years, $8MM

Questions On Four Players On Expiring Contracts

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It’s just under eleven months until the 2017 free agent period, but the concerns about players on expiring deals should already be starting. Many bigger names sign quickly once they’re eligible to, a year in advance. This year, we’ve already seen Lightning defenseman Victor Hedman and Stars forward Jamie Benn signed to long-term extensions.

Those are contending teams extending superstars who are obviously in their prime. Not every good player on an expiring contract is such an obvious case. Here are four players whose contracts will expire after this season, and what their teams might think about them.

  • Brad Marchand – Marchand is a great player, who scores goals, agitates, and plays well defensively. Coming off a 37 goal season, he’s in line for a pretty big contract. Still, he’ll be 29 when his contract expires next July, and the Bruins are going to have to reckon with where they are as a franchise. They have plenty of cap room, but should they miss the playoffs for a third straight year, it might be time to rebuild. Zdeno Chara, Patrice Bergeron, and Tuukka Rask aren’t getting any younger. It’s not that Marchand is old, or has to be moved. The question is whether to give the kind of term that will likely be demanded from a player who will be well into his thirties at the end of a rebuilding effort.
  • Ben Bishop – Bishop has been the subject of trade speculation all summer. The Lightning are serious contenders, winning five playoff rounds in two years, and aren’t looking to give away key players off their roster. The dilemma is about his salary, and the expectations around backup Andrei Vasilevskiy. The Lightning will probably give Vasilevskiy every opportunity to win the job, and if he does, trade Bishop at the deadline. Should Vasilevskiy be unable to demand the starting job, Tampa Bay could be forced to try to re-sign Bishop at the last minute.
  • Brent Burns – Burns has probably the fewest question marks of anyone on this list. The Sharks have managed to keep bringing back other stars, like Joe Thornton and Patrick Marleau, despite their age, and continue to contend. Burns can play on the wing or defense, scores at a ridiculous rate, and was arguably their best player during their Stanley Cup run this year. The question comes down to price tag, and how much Burns wants to stay in San Jose. Given his teammates, their success, and the California weather, if they can make room, Burns should be in San Jose for a long time.
  • Kevin Shattenkirk – Another subject of trade discussion all summer, it’s looking less likely he’ll be a Blue this time next year. It’s just rare for a team to shop a player of his caliber if the team thinks they can keep him. Still, the Blues are really good, and it’s hard to see him being moved for prospects or draft picks. If Shattenkirk is traded before his contract expires, St. Louis will want back a scoring forward. There’s been speculation about Rick Nash and Taylor Hall, but the latter has already been dealt. Of all the players here, Shattenkirk looks most likely to hit free agency in 2017.

Salary Cap Report: Central Division

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As the hockey world takes its collective breath before the World Cup, training camps, and the regular season, most teams have checked off their boxes and marked their ledgers. Some teams are not finished building their rosters, with RFAs still to sign and trades to explore. Some teams have plenty of space to maneuver with; other teams will need to get creative to stay under the cap.

We’ll complete our Salary Cap Reports by taking a look at the Central Division. Of note:

  • The Central Division has the two highest paid players in the NHL in Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. The Blackhawks captain and leading scorer signed matching eight-year, $84MM extensions in the summer of 2014.
  • After June’s blockbuster trade, the NHL’s highest paid defenseman is now in the Central: P.K. Subban and his $9MM cap hit are now members of the Nashville Predators. The Predators also have the highest paid goalie in the division, with Pekka Rinne making $7MM per season.
  • With Dallas captain Jamie Benn signed to a long-term extension already, there aren’t any superstar pending-UFAs in the Central, but veteran scoring wingers Patrick Sharp and Alex Steen are both up at the end of this season. Calder Trophy winner Artemi Panarin and Ryan Johansen headline next summer’s RFAs.

By the numbers:

Also in the Salary Cap Report series: Atlantic Division, Metropolitan Division, and Pacific Division.

Revisiting The Shattenkirk, Nash Trade Rumor

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It seems the Rick Nash for Kevin Shattenkirk trade rumors have been around since the New York Rangers were eliminated by Pittsburgh in the first round of the playoffs in April. Whether the rumor ever had any basis in fact or was completely conjured up by beat writers and bloggers is up for debate. Regardless, this is one rumor that has had quite the shelf life and is one that refuses to go away. They say, “where there’s smoke, there’s fire,” and there has been a lot of smoke on this one.

Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch recently answered questions as part of a live chat and naturally one reader asked about this. Rutherford did say, “it still seems quiet right now,” when discussing what his sources had told him about any Shattenkirk rumors. But later he also said he “wouldn’t dismiss the possibility,” of a trade involving the two players.

It makes sense for both clubs to varying degrees to make a move of this nature. The Rangers had issues much of last season involving their defense and have since lost regular defensemen Keith Yandle and Dan Boyle to trade and retirement respectively. Shattenkirk grew up a Rangers fan and idolized former Blueshirt blue liner Brian Leetch. His offensive prowess and puck moving ability would certainly go a long way toward replacing what the team lost when they dealt Yandle’s negotiating rights to Florida. And despite Shattenkirk entering the final year of his deal, his fondness for the Rangers would make him a likely candidate to sign a somewhat team-friendly extension.

On the St. Louis side, adding Nash would help offset the void of veteran leadership and skill created when David Backes and Troy Brouwer left the team in free agency. Nash’s previous experience with head coach Ken Hitchcock in Columbus also lends credibility to the belief the Blues would have interest in the veteran winger.

Not all signs point to the likelihood of heavy interest in Nash, however. St. Louis has made it known that they are focused on getting younger. They are expected to bring back Vladimir Sobotka from overseas to fill one vacancy up front. Plus they have some young prospects they might like to give a shot too before adding an expensive veteran like Nash.

Nash also makes a fair amount more money than Shattenkirk – $7.8MM cap hit but actual salaries of $8MM and 8.2MM over the next two years – but since the Rangers have plenty of cap space they would be able to retain salary to facilitate a move if they chose to do so.

I believe this trade would have already gone down if the Rangers and Blues wanted it to. It’s true the Rangers didn’t execute the deal to acquire Mika Zibanejad in exchange for Derick Brassard until well into the summer but that was due to Ottawa wishing to avoid paying out a bonus owed to Brassard on July 15th. The best guess is that the two clubs will go into the season more or less as they are today. But that doesn’t mean they can’t revisit this concept in-season if both teams are in need of a jolt ahead of the trade deadline.

Minor Signings

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Here’s the latest on minor free agent signings, and one player to accept a tryout:

  • James Mirtle reports that defenseman Stu Bickel, 29, has agreed to a tryout with the Anaheim Ducks. Bickel has no goals, but 10 assists in 76 career NHL games for the New York Rangers and Minnesota Wild. He last appeared in the NHL in 2015. Bickel was originally signed by the Ducks as an undrafted free agent in 2008.
  • General Fanager tweets that forward Danny Kristo has re-signed with the St. Louis Blues. It will be a one-year, two-way contract. Kristo’s salary will come in at $575K in the NHL, and $175K in the AHL. At 26, he’s never played a game in the NHL, despite being a secound round pick of the Montreal Canadiens in 2008. Kristo spent last year with the Blues’ AHL affiliates, the Chicago Wolves.
  • Gold Star Sports Management say their client Roman Dyukov has signed a one-year contract with the Calgary Flames. The 20 year old Belarussian defenseman scored eight points in 32 games for Yunior Minsk last year, and played at the IIHF World Championships.

 

Metro Notes: Rangers, Zibanejad, Buchnevich, Gagner, Cizikas

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Today is New York Rangers Day on the Pro Hockey Talk section of NBC Sports and they’ve got several posts up focusing on the Blueshirts. Included among them, Jason Brough lists the newly acquired Mika Zibanejad as the New York Ranger “under pressure” for the 2016-17 season.

Zibanejad was acquired from Ottawa in exchange for Derick Brassard, the Rangers leading goal scorer and second leading point producer. The expectation is Zibanejad, while perhaps not completely replacing Brassard’s offensive production, will be a more well-rounded player. Zibanejad played in all situations for the Senators, averaging 1:25 per game killing penalties and another 2:30 on the power play this past season. The Blueshirts struggled on the penalty-kill and it’s hoped Zibanejad will give the team another quality forward option when down a man.

Zibanejad was certainly the biggest name the Rangers have imported this summer after the disappointing end to their season. With hopes of returning to Stanley Cup contender status, the club will need Zibanejad to produce and play well in his first year on Manhattan.

More on the Rangers and other clubs in the NHL’s Metro Division….

  • In the same piece, Brough discusses Rangers top prospect Pavel Buchnevich and where he might fit into the lineup, assuming of course he makes the team out of camp. Despite being listed as a LW on the team’s official roster, Brough suggests the Rangers could line up the left-handed shooting Buchnevich on the RW, opposite Chris Kreider and next to Derek Stepan. Head coach Alain Vigneault is not afraid to mix and match his lines or to give the line(s) playing well more ice time. Even if on paper Buchnevich is on the 3rd line, it’s still quite possible he’ll see plenty of ice time. As long as he’s getting top-9 minutes he should be fine. What’s more important is developing chemistry with at least one other forward (Vigneault sticks to pairs when assembling his forward units) and that his minutes are sheltered to keep him away from the opponent’s best players as often as possible.
  • Staying in New York, Casey Cizikas spoke with the Islanders team website and answered questions regarding his new five-year extension, among other topics. The Islanders took a fair amount of criticism for doling out $3.35MM annually to a player who is considered primarily a 4th liner and penalty-killer. But that’s perhaps understating his actual value to the club. One, he averaged 12:41 of ice time this past season, whereas most 4th line players see about 8 – 10 minutes per game. Second, head coach Jack Capuano trusts Cizikas on the ice late in games when the outcome is undecided. Maybe we look back in a few years and see this contract as an overpay, but today, for what he brings to the club, the signing is at least defensible.
  • The Columbus Blue Jackets recently inked veteran pivot Sam Gagner to a one-year deal worth $650K. In this post by Aaron Portzline of The Columbus Dispatch, Gagner says the reason he signed with the Blue Jackets is that they offered him the opportunity to “re-establish” himself as a quality NHL player. In fact, he passed on offers from at least four other clubs to take the deal with the Jackets. Gagner, who had netted at least 40 points six different times and never previously finished with fewer than 37 points in any season, slumped to a career-worst 16 points last year, skating primarily on the 4th line for the Flyers. With head coach John Tortorella seemingly preferring to use Boone Jenner on the wing and with only the oft-injured Brandon Dubinsky a sure bet to see top-six center minutes – assuming he stays relatively healthy of course – this does present Gagner an excellent chance to rebuild his value. The Jackets boast some quality talent up front – Brandon Saad, Jenner, Scott Hartnell and Cam Atkinson come to mind immediately – so Gagner will get to play with some skilled players. By the end of the 2016-17 campaign, Gagner might prove to be the biggest bargain of free agency.

 

Alex Steen Hoping To Extend Stay With Blues

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Alex Steen is still a year away from unrestricted free agency, but according to Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the veteran Swede would like to get a contract extension done with St. Louis prior to the start of the 2016-17 campaign. Rutherford also suggests that the Blues would like a resolution sooner rather than later after watching Troy Brouwer and former team captain David Backes depart as free agents this summer.

Steen is in the final year of a three-year, $17.4MM extension ($5.8MM AAV) the two sides signed in December of 2013. As Rutherford noted, the timing of his previous extension indicates Steen might still be willing to talk about a new deal during the regular season, despite his preference for getting it done prior to its start. But that doesn’t necessarily mean common ground for a new contract will be easy for the parties to find.

Depending on how Steen fares in 2016-17 and whether he is amenable to giving St. Louis a hometown discount, a new contract would still likely cost the Blues $5MM per or more over multiple years. Steen turns 33 next March and is coming off a shoulder injury which caused him to miss 15 games last season and required offseason surgery to fix. Additionally, Steen has never been a stalwart of good health. Only once in his 11-year NHL career has Steen suited up for a full schedule of games and he’s missed at least eight contests in each of his previous seven campaigns.

The Blues were outbid in their attempt to re-sign Backes largely because they were hesitant to guarantee their captain the term or money he was looking for. Ultimately, Backes inked a five-year deal with Boston for $30MM ($6MM AAV) and that’s simply a neighborhood the Blues were not willing to travel into. I find it difficult to believe the Blues would make an exception for Steen when they wouldn’t for their long-time captain.

Still, Steen has been an important two-way contributor for the Blues and one they wouldn’t want to lose. Over the last three seasons, Steen has a points-per-game average of 0.85, which in a full season would prorate out to about 70 points. Only 17 players reached that scoring threshold last season and Steen resides in that company, at least on a rate basis.

Steen is a good driver of puck possession, with his team averaging better than 53% of the shot attempts taken while he is on the ice since joining St. Louis. Steen also positively impacts his team’s odds of scoring goals. With Steen on the ice, the Blues have recorded 55.4% of the goals scored over the last two seasons. Steen adds a lot of value to the Blues roster and it makes sense they’d want to keep him given their position as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender. Now it’s a matter of whether they can find a term and AAV both sides are comfortable with.

Nonetheless, there is plenty of time for the two sides to get something done. The Blues likely will wait to make sure Steen is completely healthy and producing at normal levels before committing to another multiyear deal. And since Steen clearly wants to stay in St. Louis, he might be willing to make enough concessions to accommodate the Blues front office to ensure he has a chance to finish his career in the Gateway city.

Snap Shots: Vermette, Havlat, Oilers, Vegas

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Yesterday, Arizona Coyotes GM John Chayka made the somewhat surprising decision to place veteran center Antoine Vermette on waivers for the purpose of buying out the final year of his contract. By all accounts Vermette didn’t have his best season in 2015-16 but still netted 38 points, including 16 on the power play, in 76 games. But in the club’s release announcing the move, Chayka cited the desire to give opportunities to some of the organization’s young players, including perhaps top prospects Christian Dvorak and Dylan Strome.

Regardless of why he’s now available, a player with Vermette’s track record is likely going to draw a fair amount of interest from other clubs. However, the Boston Bruins should not be among those teams, at least that’s the opinion of Joe Haggerty writing for CSNNE.com.

Haggerty argues that signing the 34-year-old Vermette doesn’t mesh with the Bruins’ desire to get younger. I’d argue there isn’t much of a fit in Bean Town since the Bruins already boast Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci at the center position. The team also added David Backes as a free agent and he comes with plenty of experience in the middle. Even if they decided to play Backes on the wing, Boston lists 24-year-old Ryan Spooner as a center and he is coming off a career high 49-point season. There just doesn’t seem to be room for Vermette on this roster.

Now, more from around the league.

  • The list of available free agents may increase by one as Allan Walsh, the agent for former NHLer Martin Havlat, has indicated via tweet his client is currently training with HC Kometa Brno in the Czech League with the intent of returning to the NHL next season. Havlat appeared in just two contests for the St. Louis Blues in 2015-16 before leaving the club for “personal reasons.” He had earned a job with the team after signing a PTO in October. Prior to his abbreviated stint with St. Louis, Havlat had skated in 788 NHL games, spending time with Ottawa, Chicago, Minnesota, San Jose and New Jersey. At one point Havlat was one of the league’s top young offensive players, tallying 31 goals and 37 assists for the Senators in 2003-04, playing most of the season as a 22-year-old. Those prolific scoring days are long gone and in recent seasons Havlat has produced roughly 0.5 Pts/Game. That doesn’t mean a team won’t take a flier on the talented Czech in hopes he can produce even at that level and hold down a regular spot in their top-nine on the cheap.
  • The expansion Las Vegas franchise continues to assemble its front office staff with the club announcing the hiring of Kelly McCrimmon as assistant general manager. McCrimmon, has been the majority owner, GM and head coach of the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL. He has won the WHL’s Executive of the Year award three times since 1995. It was reported earlier this summer that Las Vegas had requested permission from Washington to interview their assistant GM, Ross Mahoney, for the same role. Of course GM George McPhee knows Mahoney well from their days together in the Capitals front office so the potential fit was obvious. It’s not known whether Washington refused permission for Vegas to speak with Mahoney or if the club just elected to go in a different direction.
  • In other management news, the Edmonton Oilers are expected to name Keith Gretzky as an assistant GM, a recent rumor all but confirmed via tweet from Bob McKenzie of TSN. Gretzky is of course the brother of Wayne and has served as the director of amateur scouting for the Boston Bruins, where he worked under current Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli. Obviously Gretzky made a good impression on Chiarelli during their time together in Boston.

 

Minor Transactions: 8/1/16

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Here is where we’ll keep track of today’s minor transactions:

  • Former NHL’er Sergei Kostitsyn, who was seeking an NHL deal this summer, has signed a contract with Dinamo Minsk of the KHL, the Russian team announced (link in Russian). This marks the fourth different KHL squad in as many years for the 29 year old Belarusian.  Kostitsyn spent time with both Nashville and Montreal from 2007-08 to 2012-13, picking up 67 goals and 109 assists in 353 games.
  • New Jersey UFA defenseman Marc-Andre Gragnani is also joining Dynamo Minsk on a one year deal, the team announced (link in Russian). Gragnani spent most of last year with the Devils’ AHL affiliate in Albany, collecting a goal and 30 assists in 57 games.  He also skated in four games with New Jersey, being held pointless while averaging 14:22 per game.  Gragnani has played in 78 career NHL contests with the Sabres, Canucks, Hurricanes, and Devils, scoring three goals and 15 assists.
  • Former NHL blueliner Andrej Meszaros has signed a one year deal with Bratislava of the KHL, the Slovak team announced (link in Slovak). Meszaros played last season with Sibir Novosibirsk of the KHL but before that, he spent parts of ten seasons in the NHL.  He has 238 points (63 goals and 175 assists) in 645 career NHL contests with Ottawa, Tampa Bay, Philadelphia, Boston, and Buffalo.
  • Linus Omark, who last played in the NHL with Buffalo in 2014, has inked a two year extension with Salavat Yulaev of the KHL, the Russian team announced (link in Russian). Omark has long been thought of as one of the more talented players outside the NHL but has failed to produce in a couple of different NHL stints.  He finished fifth in KHL scoring last season with 57 points in 60 games.
  • Group 6 Free Agent Danny Kristo agreed to terms with the St. Louis Blues, inking a one year, two-way contrack worth $575K (NHL) / $175K (AHL). The American forward scored 25G and 23A in 75 games for the AHL Chicago Wolves.
  • Stu Bickel agreed to a Professional Tryout with the Anaheim Ducks, according to Globe and Mail’s James Mirtle. Bickel spent last season with Anaheim’s AHL Affiliate San Diego Gulls, scoring 1G and 6A in 59 games.
  • Arizona Coyotes’ first round draft pick Jakob Chychrun’s contract details were released today. The defenseman will receive the league maximum $925K a year for the length of his ELC, and up to $425K in Schedule A bonuses. The Coyotes moved up in the draft to select Chychrun with the 16th overall selection by taking on Pavel Datysuk’s contract from Detroit in exchange for the higher draft pick.

Calculating Kucherov’s Potential Value As RFA

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Tampa Bay’s Nikita Kucherov is perhaps the best player still without a contract for 2016-17. Of course as a RFA without arbitration rights and given there is practically no chance another team would dare an offer sheet, Kucherov has almost no leverage to use in negotiations for a new deal. Regardless, Kucherov is going to get a significant raise over the modest $700K he earned in salary this year. That might not bode too well for Tampa, who has around $6.5MM in cap space with Kucherov and D Nikita Nestorov still to re-sign. Still, despite the relative lack of apparent progress, Lightning GM Steve Yzerman is quite confident a deal with Kucherov will get done, as Joe Smith of the Tampa Bay Times writes.

Naturally, knowing a deal will get done and knowing what that done deal will look like are two very different things. Smith speculates that the six-year, $36MM ($6MM AAV) contract Filip Forsberg signed with Nashville serves as a good comparable.

Like Kucherov, Forsberg was coming off his ELC when he agreed to his new pact. In terms of offensive production, there are strong similarities between the two. Forsberg has averaged 0.33 Goals/Game and 0.73 Pts/Game during his 182-game NHL career. Kucherov counters with nearly identical scoring rates of 0.32 Goals/Game and 0.71 Pts/Game over 211 games. Forsberg’s deal certainly would seem to represent a fair comparable.

Yzerman is as patient as they come in his role as GM and he will only make a deal if he feels it fits into the club’s salary structure. Not long ago it seemed all but certain that Steven Stamkos would sign a contract worth close to $10MM annually, whether with Tampa or another club, as that is the going rate for elite players. Yet Yzerman sold Stamkos on his long-term vision for the program and convinced the star sniper to take a more palatable figure for the team.

After getting Stamkos’ name on the dotted line, Yzerman moved to sign franchise defenseman Victor Hedman a year before he would have hit free agency. Ultimately, Hedman and the Lightning agreed to an eight-year, $63MM deal many in the industry feel is a steal for a player of his caliber.

Yzerman might not be the perfect GM (the Ryan Callahan contract already looks like it’s going to be an anchor) but he has done a tremendous job getting most of his own guys to re-sign for fair-market value or less, allowing enough space to get his RFA’s done.

That being said, Kucherov’s representation might look elsewhere for comparable contracts to base their argument on. One such deal is the eight-year, $60MM pact Vladimir Tarasenko obtained from the St. Louis Blues earlier this year. If we again take into account relative offensive production over the last three seasons, Kucherov matches up fairly  well with Tarasenko. The Blues winger is slightly more productive offensively, both in the goal scoring (0.37 goals-per-game) and points departments (0.75 points-per-game). But the difference is small enough that Kucherov’s camp could reasonably push for a contract somewhat closer to Tarasenko’s in AAV.

On the other side of the coin, Mike Hoffman, who recently inked a four-year extension with Ottawa worth $20.75MM ($5.1875MM AAV) could also be used as a marker for Kucherov’s value. Hoffman comes up just shy in terms of points-per-game (0.68) but is essentially equal as a goal-scorer based on rates. Hoffman has averaged 0.36 goals-per-game over the last two seasons while Kucherov has recorded 0.37 per, over the same time frame.

At the end of the day, the Forsberg contract is likely going to be close to what the two sides end up agreeing upon. Kucherov has outproduced Hoffman enough to justify an AAV higher than $5.1875MM. And while Kucherov isn’t too far off from Tarasenko offensively, the Blues winger is the more electric goal scorer and goals pay better than assists. Those factors combined with Yzerman’s ability to make deals on his terms point to the likelihood of something in the range of $6MM annually.

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