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Salary Cap

Latest On Salary Cap Projections

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It’s been a foolish game to try and project future revenues over the last few years, with COVID-19 creating so much unpredictability from day to day. In the summer of 2021, it seemed clear that because of the loss of huge amounts of gate revenue, broadcast commitments, and other sources of income for the NHL, the salary cap would be relatively flat through the 2025-26 season. Frank Seravalli and Daily Faceoff worked out the escrow debt that was holding back any cap increases and projected it would take several seasons to pay off.

Then, in December, NHL commissioner Gary Bettman was very bullish on the way the league revenues had rebounded and suggested that the escrow debt could be paid off a year earlier. Unfortunately, in the days that followed that announcement, a huge number of games started being postponed, Canadian teams started playing in empty rinks, and once again those projections were put in jeopardy.

Now, as things have at least stabilized for the time being, it appears as though the league is still on track for an increase in 2025-26. NHLPA director Donald Fehr told Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet that it is a “reasonable bet” that the escrow debt will be paid off by the end of the 2024-25 season. If they do, it would almost certainly trigger a significant cap jump.

When Seravalli first projected out the cap numbers for the next few years, that jump was just under $6MM, to a total of $91.4MM. Remember though, that was for the 2026-27 season, meaning if the escrow is paid off a year earlier, it will come in a little under that number.

For now, the league is still limited to $1MM increases. Next season will have a cap ceiling of $82.5MM, 2023-24 is expected to be $83.5MM, and 2024-25 will have an $84.5MM. But as the entire world has learned since early 2020–don’t take projections as gospel.

Toronto Places Kase On LTIR, Recalls Three On Emergency Basis

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After losing three starters in Tuesday night’s game against the rival Boston Bruins, the Toronto Maple Leafs were left with little choice but to tweak their roster. Up against the salary cap and managing a number of injuries, Toronto has opted to move forward Ondrej Kase to the Long-Term Injured Reserve, CapFriendly reports. This raised the Leafs’ LTIR pool just enough to make three emergency recalls while staying under the upper limit of the cap. Promoted to the NHL roster are defensemen Mac Hollowell and Filip Kral and goaltender Michael Hutchinson, who will replace Justin Holl, Ilya Lyubushkin, and Petr Mrazek, each of whom exited last night’s game.

Kase has been out since suffering a head injury earlier this month. As of Friday, the team had still not ruled it a concussion, but given Kase’s extensive history of head injuries it hardly matters. The dynamic, but oft-injured winger will need plenty of time to return to action, allowing the team to move him to LTIR. He joins defensemen Jake Muzzin and Rasmus Sandin on the long-term shelf, bringing the Leafs’ LTIR salary pool to $7.77MM, the amount that they may exceed the salary cap as a means of replacing those players. However, Muzzin and his $5.625MM cap hit are expected to be activated sooner rather than later, which will drastically change the calculus for Toronto.

Meanwhile, Holl, Lyubushkin, and Mrazek join starting goaltender Jack Campbell as the Leafs’ other injured players. Mrazek’s injury history and inconsistency this season make his absence both relatively unsurprising and somewhat inconsequential. However, the major hit to the blue line depth cannot be ignored. While Toronto impressed in a 6-4 win over Boston on Tuesday, they can ill-afford to continue battling this injury bug. They sit just two points ahead of the Bruins and one point behind the Tampa Bay Lightning in the race for Atlantic playoff position and are set to face Tampa and the Florida Panthers next week.

While the veteran Hutchinson is battle-tested and ready for the challenge, he and rookie Erik Kallgren splitting the net for the Leafs is unlikely to be successful for too long. On the back end, Hollowell and Kral have no NHL experience and are an even bigger liability. Toronto is hoping that these emergency recalls are just that and their regulars will be back in action soon.

 

NHL GM Meetings Roundup: Salary Cap, LTIR, No Trade Clause, Russian Draft Picks, Officiating, Revenue

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With the conclusion of this year’s NHL GM Meetings, NHL Commissioner Gary Bettman and Deputy Commissioner Bill Daly gathered for media availability earlier today to discuss the meetings, including their thoughts on certain hot topics, potential changes to rules, and the overall state of the game.

One change reported earlier was that the salary cap is expected to increase by $1MM next year to $82.5MM. Although the salary cap is expected to remain flat through 2024-25, Bettman clarified that a $1MM increase on the cap is still in-line with a flat cap. Albeit a small change, the extra space could stand to benefit some teams who are already dangerously close to the cap ceiling and project to be in the same position next year. Bettman did add that after 2024-25, he expects that the cap would increase more substantially.

  • On the much-discussed LTIR situation in the NHL, Bettman and Daly did not express much concern, a relay of the feelings of the 32 teams. Bettman did acknowledge the situation, but said that it was “not going to be addressed as a front-burner issue anytime soon.” In regards to teams who have players return right at the start of playoffs, a seemingly convenient occurrence, Daly clarified the NHL’s process of handling these issues, noting that the league, when a player is placed into LTIR, requests the projected date of return, and if that date is around the start of the playoffs, they do look deeper into it and may even use an independent medical expert to verify the proposed timetable.
  • Touching on no-trade and no-movement clauses in light of the Evgenii Dadonov non-trade, Daly said that the league has already had discussions with the NHLPA about the possibility of having a rule requiring all such clauses to be filed with both the NHL Central Registry and the NHLPA. Ultimately, a new software that the two sides could share to store and access the clauses, appeared to be an idea on the table for the league. To get the process started, Daly added that a draft letter agreement had been written and the league was planning on sharing that with the NHLPA today in hopes of jumpstarting negotiations.
  • When asked about any possible restrictions on Russian players in the upcoming NHL Entry Draft, Daly did not anticipate any restrictions, but did qualify that the state of the world could be much different at that time.
  • On the topic of officiating, Bettman explained that he thought the officiating meeting went well, with the topic of the meeting being merely an update, and that it was otherwise uneventful. Bettman also appeared surprised that anyone thought the meeting could be construed as contentious and did not share those beliefs when asked.
  • One last topic that many hockey fans may gloss over, is revenue. Bettman mentioned that the league expects revenue to once again hit the $5B mark this year, notwithstanding the attendance restrictions and movement of games in the Canadian markets in late 2021 and early 2022.

2022-23 Salary Cap To Increase To $82.5MM

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March 29: Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic confirms that at the general manager meetings in Florida, the league has officially announced that the 2022-23 salary cap will be set at $82.5MM.

March 26: The end of the flat cap era could be in sight. After three seasons at a salary cap upper limit of $81.5 due to the Coronavirus pandemic, a long-awaited increase could be coming – and just in time for a number of teams. TSN’s Chris Johnston reports that the NHL is continuing to project a $1MM bump to the current ceiling and that teams will be informed of the expected $82.5MM mark for the 2022-23 season at the upcoming GM Meetings.

The 2021-22 season has not been without its hiccups, specifically a large number of games postponed due to COVID in December in January. However, with the NHL also opting out of the 2022 Winter Olympics, the league was able to reschedule many of those missed games during the planned Olympic break in February, with other dates being added and swapped throughout the rest of the season. Johnston reports that these changes did not impact the league’s revenue stream in a meaningful way. While attendance limits in Canada have cost overall revenue, it has not been enough to dislodge the league’s planned cap increase. In fact, Johnston says that 2021-22 returns thus far appear “strong”.

This will be welcome relief for a number of teams. Although the cap has been stagnant for several years, it has not necessarily deflated player salaries which has put a number of teams in difficult spots this year and as they plan ahead for 2022-23 and beyond. This is especially true for long-term contracts for defensemen, many of which kick in next season. Though $1MM may not seem like a significant increase, more than half the league is currently using Long-Term Injured Reserve or is less than $1MM under the cap ceiling and this has been true for most of the season. Many of these same teams also have an uncomfortable amount of salary expenses already committed for the 2022-23 season and will greatly appreciate some added flexibility.

With business running smoothly and the upper limit trending up, there could be a shift in the NHL’s salary cap floor as well. The league boasts impressive competitive balance and much of that comes from a hard salary floor in addition to the ceiling, and a narrow margin at that. Johnston does not make note of any imminent announcements on the cap floor just yet, but if the NHL believes that revenue is healthy enough to increase the cap, they will likely do the same with the floor.

NHL General Managers Could Discuss Closing LTIR Playoff “Loophole”

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Next week holds in store an NHL general managers’ meeting in Manalapan, Florida, and Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports that the agenda may include a discussion around altering the long-term injured reserve “loophole” used by teams to build legal, but non-salary-cap-compliant rosters for the Stanley Cup Playoffs.

As it stands, teams are allowed to gain cap relief from players on injured reserve for the end of the regular season before the salary cap disappears for the playoffs, then bringing those players back once healthy for playoff runs. It theoretically allows teams to exceed the hard cap by several millions of dollars during the playoffs due to the salary cap not being in effect at the end of the regular season. Seravalli says at least one general manager has requested that this be included on the meeting’s agenda, with that GM believing “strongly that wasn’t the intended spirit of the CBA when it was written.” It’s a rule that’s been taken advantage of by multiple Stanley Cup-winning teams in the past, including the Tampa Bay Lightning in 2021 with Nikita Kucherov and the Chicago Blackhawks in 2015 with Patrick Kane.

The anonymous general manager cited in the article doesn’t think a complex solution is required to fix this inequity, however. While they don’t advocate for overall financial roster limits, they put forth a proposal that the 20-man roster on the ice for each team during a playoff game can’t exceed the salary cap. This would provide a boost to essentially all playoff teams, considering that during the regular season, any healthy scratches or players on regular injured reserve count against the salary cap as well. It gives teams flexibility, allowing them to make roster decisions freely during the playoffs among healthy players within the constraint of a combined $81.5MM cap hit for the on-ice lineup.

However, as Seravalli notes, any modification to this rule requires negotiation with the NHLPA, as it constitutes a “material change” to the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

While no surefire playoff team this season is taking advantage of this loophole in earnest, it was widely assumed the Vegas Golden Knights’ playoff lineup would benefit from this ability due to captain Mark Stone’s long-term back injury that’s expected to keep him out through the regular season. Now, with additional injuries continuing to pile up for the Knights, it’s feasible the team misses the playoffs entirely.

Evgenii Dadonov Trade Under Review

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March 22: After news broke last night that there was an issue with this trade, Darren Dreger of TSN tweets that it is still being reviewed by the NHL Central Registry and the NHLPA. The issue stems from a no-trade clause that was not disclosed by the Ottawa Senators when Dadonov was originally traded to Vegas, despite it being public knowledge at the time.

March 21:  After much speculation throughout the day, the Evgenii Dadonov trade has finally gone through this evening reports TSN’s Chris Johnston. In addition to Dadonov, also heading to the Anaheim Ducks is a conditional second-round draft choice, which will be determined by the conditions of a draft pick previously traded to the Buffalo Sabres. In exchange, the Vegas Gold Knights acquire defenseman John Moore and the contract of forward Ryan Kesler.

This deal had been reported and all but confirmed earlier today before the NHL’s 3:00 pm EST trading deadline, however it had not been processed through NHL Central Registry and was not official until this evening. As Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman explains, the trade would have been accepted had it been submitted to Central Registry before the deadline, however that would have made Dadonov and Moore ineligible to play for the rest of the season. However, it appears the trade was submitted in time.

This trade was, for the most part, a salary cap deal. By sending Dadonov to Anaheim, Vegas clears his $5MM salary cap hit for this year and next year. However, by acquiring Moore, they absorb his $2.75MM cap hit, but that will lower to $1.625MM if they bury Moore in the AHL. In acquiring Kesler’s contract, Vegas can put him straight onto LTIR and have no net impact on their salary cap. All told, Vegas, will save $3.375MM in cap space, in exchange for a second-round draft pick and any production they will miss from Dadonov.

For Anaheim, the team has allowed Vegas to navigate a tricky cap situation, and was compensated for doing so with a second-round draft choice. The condition on the draft pick, as mentioned, concerns the Jack Eichel trade with Buffalo. If Vegas’ first-round draft choice in 2022 is in the top ten, then Vegas will send their 2024 second-round pick to Buffalo instead of the 2023 second-round draft pick originally reported in the Eichel deal. In other words, if Vegas’ first-round pick in 2022 is in the top 10, Anaheim receives their 2023 second-round draft choice; otherwise, they will receive Vegas’ 2024 second-round draft choice. Regardless, this move represents further precedent of the cost of shedding salary cap for a team that desperately needs to do so.

Not to be forgotten, the Ducks also acquire Dadonov, who has played in 62 games for Vegas this year, amassing 15 goals and 12 assists in the process, which replaces a good deal of the production Anaheim lost by trading Rickard Rakell away to the Pittsburgh Penguins earlier today. Dadonov also has an additional year under contract at $5MM for next year.

Vancouver Canucks Acquire Travis Dermott

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In order for the Toronto Maple Leafs to figure out the salary cap gymnastics of their acquisition of Mark Giordano and Colin Blackwell, they have opened up some space and honored a trade request by sending young defenseman Travis Dermott to the Vancouver Canucks. TSN’s Darren Dreger was the first to report the deal, with colleague Pierre LeBrun adding that the return is a 2022 third-round pick, a pick originally belonging to the Winnipeg Jets. Both clubs have confirmed the deal.

After trading Travis Hamonic earlier today for a third-round pick, the Canucks essentially made a Travis-for-Travis swap after receiving and sending similar draft selections. However, it is difficult to call that anything but a win for Vancouver. Dermott, 25, is much younger and at this point in his career a more dynamic player than Hamonic and likely has his best days ahead of him. Yet, he also costs half as much at $1.5MM through next season compared to Hamonic’s $3MM, something highly valuable to the cap-strapped Canucks. Vancouver will also maintain control of Dermott after the 2022-23 season, as he will be a restricted free agent.

Dermott requested a trade out of Toronto seeking greater opportunity and he will find that in Vancouver. The Canucks’ defense corps is led by young Quinn Hughes and includes veterans Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Tyler Myers, but Dermott could wind up as the final piece of the top four. Tucker Poolman and Luke Schenn are both signed through at least next season while Jack Rathbone and others could make a push from the AHL, but this is less stiff competition than what Dermott faced with the Leafs. A player who flashed greater ability earlier in his career than he has in recent years, Dermott could find his way back to the player he was expected to be, which would make this an excellent deal for the Canucks.

Montreal Canadiens Could Move Shea Weber’s Contract

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Earlier tonight on the 32 Thoughts segment of Hockey Night in Canada, Elliotte Friedman added another name to the list of potential Montreal Canadiens defensemen to be moved: Shea Weber (link). Friedman believes Montreal will look to move Weber’s contract to a team that either needs long-term injured reserve room or who needs to get to the cap floor and prefers not to spend much over the next few years.

The 36-year-old Weber has not played this year, having had his playing career likely come to an end due to injury. Weber last played in the Stanley Cup Finals for Montreal against the Tampa Bay Lightning last season before being placed on long-term injured reserve this season.

What is most notable about Weber’s situation is his remaining contract terms. While he has another four years left on his contract, carrying a $7.9MM cap hit each season, he is only owed $6MM total over those four years. In other words, a team that acquires Weber would only have to pay him $6MM, despite his contract having four years at $7.9MM each year. This would be an intriguing option for a team that is looking to take on cap for their own benefit or to alleviate another team’s salary cap concerns.

Montreal may not be inclined to move Weber, however, unless the terms were in its best interests. If the Canadiens are committed to a rebuild, then they might be the exact team that could benefit from having Weber’s contract on the books in the first place. Still, this idea has only thus far been reported and a market for Weber has yet to establish itself, and could carry on into the offseason potentially.

Snapshots: KHL Departures, AHL Signings, NHL Trade Market

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Amidst the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the exodus in the KHL continues. While many North American players had already left their respective Russia-based club and two non-Russian teams left the league altogether, perhaps the largest blow yet occurred Friday as European players across the KHL left their teams en masse. The move takes place as the Gagarin Cup playoffs are underway.

The Eastern Conference first round match-up between Salavat Yulaev Ufa and Sibir Novosibirsk will look decidedly different moving forward. Ufa, the No. 3 seed in the conference, announced that all of their import players have left the team. This includes names familiar to NHL fans like Markus Granlund, Teemu Hartikainen, and Philip Larsen. Granlund and fellow departure Sakari Manninen led the club in scoring this season. Novosibirsk revealed that a pair of former NHLers had left their ranks as well in goaltender Harri Sateri and defenseman Jyrki Jokipakka. Leading scorer Nick Shore had already left the team and is now joined by the starting goaltender and arguably their best defender. Perennial favorite CSKA Moscow is not immune to this movement; the team announced that they have lost recent NHL contributors Joakim Nordstrom and Lucas Wallmark, both of whom served in top-six roles. Finally, regular season champion Metallurg Magnitogorsk may have lost their title hopes with the departure of starting goaltender Juho Olkinuora. The former AHLer and University of Denver standout was among the best keepers in the KHL this season. This is not the extent of the departures of foreign players, nor will it be the last.

  • There has been a flurry of activity in the AHL of late, headlined by an extension for veteran forward Tanner Fritz. The Hartford Wolf Pack announced that their plus/minus leader has inked a new contract for the 2022-23 season. Fritz, 30, has played his pro career almost exclusively in New York and Connecticut, spending five years with the New York Islanders and their affiliate in Bridgeport before moving to Hartford this season. While appreciative of a new contract, Fritz is probably eyeing a contract with the New York Rangers next, if possible. In Toronto, the Marlies have elevated NHL veteran Joseph Blandisi from a PTO to a contract for the remainder of the season. Blandisi, 27, has been a near point-per-game player for the Marlies this season and is well-deserving of a real contract. Down in Charlotte, the Checkers are bringing in some fresh blood from the junior ranks. Defenseman Robert Calisti of the OHL’s Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds and forward Xavier Cormier of the QMJHL’s Rimouski Oceanic have each signed two-year contracts with the club, beginning next season. The two combined for 72 points in 81 games this season and the Checkers hope that production translates to the pros.
  • If it seems like all the action right now is outside of the NHL, while the trade market remains all bark and no bite, it’s true. Despite the usual speculation, there have been nearly no early moves made this season with the deadline just over two weeks away. Outside of Tyler Toffoli and Nick Ritchie/Ilya Lyubushkin, the only trades made of late have included future considerations, seventh-round picks, and third-string goaltenders. TSN’s Pierre LeBrun reports that the holdup on the market comes from the buyers rather than the sellers. He believes that the salary cap concerns, especially from those teams managing long-term injuries, is slowing deal-making. However, there may be hope that things will pick up soon, as LeBrun notes that sellers are getting antsy. Contenders with cap space, such as the Predators, Rangers, Wild, and Bruins, could be the beneficiaries if other cap-strapped teams continue to drag their feet.

West Notes: Golden Knights, Forsberg, Blackhawks

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Much has been made of the Vegas Golden Knights’ salary cap management, with the team playing with fire ever since acquiring Jack Eichel. Now, with the team potentially in a bind if they don’t have enough room to activate healthy players off long-term injured reserve prior to the playoffs, The Athletic’s Jesse Granger suggests a post-Trade Deadline cap-clearing move could potentially be in play. The return dates of Alec Martinez and Mark Stone aren’t certain, and it’s possible both could be healthy before May. If that’s the case, the Golden Knights could potentially move a player after the deadline to a non-playoff team in order to become cap-compliant. There’s no rule preventing this, as the Trade Deadline is legally only relevant because players moved after that date aren’t eligible for playoff games. However, as Granger notes, this could likely significantly reduce the trade value of any player Vegas is looking to move out, considering they’d have no other option to become compliant.

Other rumblings from the Wild West:

  • Bally Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland reports that he’s hearing the Nashville Predators are “actively shopping” Filip Forsberg ahead of the deadline. While the team is a likely playoff lock in the Western Conference at this point, they’re likely not in the Stanley Cup conversation, and Forsberg is a free agent at season’s end. The NHL’s leader in even-strength goals would likely become the deadline’s biggest prize, and any Forsberg deal could reap considerable rewards for Nashville’s future and help replenish a prospect pool that, while it has some nice names, isn’t the strongest. He’s carrying an extremely reasonable $6MM cap hit that most contenders can stomach with some retention.
  • According to Scott Powers and Mark Lazerus at The Athletic, if the Chicago Blackhawks and goalie Marc-Andre Fleury agree on a trade, it could potentially net the team a first-round pick. While they do say a second- or third-round selection is probably more realistic, some do believe teams will pay up for last year’s Vezina winner. The team does not have their first-round pick this year after including it in the Seth Jones trade.

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