Why The 2022 Trade Deadline Could Be A Seller’s Market
The 2022 NHL Trade Deadline is not exactly imminent. The delayed March 21 date this season is 11 weeks away and a lot can change in that amount of time. However, the end of the holiday trade freeze is the unofficial start to trade season leading up to the deadline. In the first few months of the season there have been ten trades completed, but outside of the Jack Eichel deal there have been very few moves of any substance. That may not change any time soon either.
An active trade deadline requires there to be identifiable buyers and sellers and they must be willing and able to deal. Buyers should not be an issue this season; the eight teams currently in a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference may be locked in, as nearly 100 percentage points separate the eighth and ninth team in the conference standings, while the Western Conference includes 13 teams with .500+ records. Therein begins the sellers problem though. Only three teams out west look like potential sellers right now, while there could be more teams willing to sell in the east but many are in a rebuild and don’t have much to offer, while others are merely lacking impact rentals. There are also a number of fringe teams that probably should be sellers, but are close enough to a playoff berth that would mean so much to their players and fan base that they may hold out.
The Athletic’s Eric Duhatschek notes another wrinkle that could limit sellers: five teams are currently operating with an interim GM. The Montreal Canadiens and Vancouver Canucks have hired new heads of their respective front offices in Jeff Gorton and Jim Rutherford, but neither has in turn hired his GM yet and seem unlikely to make major moves independently. This could take Gorton’s Canadiens, one of the most obvious sellers on paper, off the market. Rutherford’s Canucks hope to be in the playoff race, but he has already vowed that the team will either sell or stand pat this season and the longer it takes to hire a GM, the more likely it will be the latter. The Chicago Blackhawks, Anaheim Ducks, and San Jose Sharks are all operating with temporary GMs, all of whom have limited experience. Chicago and Anaheim fired their most recent GMs and have internal replacements for the time being, while San Jose GM Doug Wilson is currently away from the team for medical reasons. As Duhatschek points out, the likes of Kyle Davidson, Jeff Solomon, and Joe Will are not only new to the GM position, but lack the relationships around the league to make impact moves. So while the Blackhawks look like bona fide sellers and the Sharks and possibly the Ducks could get to that point, will they actually be willing to make trades?
The Seattle Kraken also fall into a category all their own. The NHL’s newest team was just put together in its entirety this off-season. Although they struggled mightily all season and do possess a number of expiring contracts, it remains to be seen if GM Ron Francis is ready to blow it up.
On top of all of this, the rental market among potential sellers is not strong. Of the top 20 impending UFA’s in per-game scoring this season, zero are on teams with sub-.500 records and just three are on teams not currently in a playoff spot. Expand that to the top 50, and only ten players are on sub-.500 teams: Phil Kessel, Travis Boyd, and Johan Larsson for Arizona, Vinnie Hinostroza for Buffalo, Chris Wideman for Montreal, P.K. Subban for New Jersey, Tyler Ennis for Ottawa, and Calle Jarnkrok, Colin Blackwell, and Mark Giordano for Seattle. Even if valuable defensemen like Ben Chiarot and Colin Miller or even a future Hall of Fame goaltender like Marc-Andre Fleury are considered, it’s not exactly an inspiring list for teams adding at the deadline. More importantly, it’s a short list for a potentially large group of buyers.
For those teams looking to make a meaningful trade this season, the conundrum is when to make a move. On one hand, with a small group of exciting targets it may be beneficial to make a trade early and possibly avoid the high prices of deadline bidding wars. On the other hand, the pool of sellers could also expand closer to the deadline and prices could drop if there is a flood of supply to meet the demand. Until that happens though – if it even does – there will be few moves to make early on and quite possibly right up to the deadline. Serious contenders should be prepared to pay up or sit tight this season.
Injuries Delaying Roster Decisions For Islanders, Kraken
The NHL season is now underway and yet the well-documented roster crunches of the New York Islanders and Seattle Kraken have gone completely unnoticed even as the league’s 23-man roster deadline came and went. What happened? Well, it may seem counterintuitive, but both teams have been helped out by injuries and health-related absences. However, they aren’t out of the woods yet and may only be delaying the inevitable.
In New York, the Isles knew that they would receive salary cap and roster flexibility by placing defenseman Johnny Boychuk on Long-Term Injured Reserve, but veteran forward Matt Martin also landed on IR. While just one unexpected injury may not seem like a lot, it has had a massive impact on how the Islanders prepare for the start of the season. While the club was successfully able to pass pricier veterans Richard Panik and Thomas Hickey through waivers and on to AHL Bridgeport, they have not yet had to make the tough decision between any of their other more attractive fringe players. Once Martin returns, someone else has to go. Martin’s fourth line replacement Ross Johnston appears to be safe as the apparent next man up, but is at least in the mix. Serviceable veteran Leo Komarov is not expected to be in the Isles’ Opening Night lineup on Thursday, but has been a valuable depth player for years in New York and is even more attractive to other teams now that he is on an expiring contract. Young Kieffer Bellows, whose new contract was finally registered with the league, would also be very interesting to other teams and represents the Islanders’ best top-six substitute. There is no easy choice as all three are more likely than not to be claimed, which explains why GM Lou Lamoriello has reportedly been exploring the trade market.
Things are a little more dire in Seattle, where the league’s newest team would like to keep their Opening Night roster intact but stand little chance of doing so. Already the team has had to make some risky waiver placements, including Kole Lind and Cale Fleury, but have been lucky thus far. Dennis Cholowski‘s time on the wire could yield a different result, but even that loss would pale in comparison to what is coming down the line if the Kraken don’t make a move first. The lone holdover from the team’s recent mini-breakout of positive COVID-19 tests, veteran forward Calle Jarnkrok will be available sooner rather than later. Marcus Johansson, placed on injured reserve today, will likely be the next one back and Colin Blackwell is only expected to miss the first month of the season. Further down the road, the team will also need room for Yanni Gourde, who is expected back closer to December. That’s four valuable veterans forwards who all need spots on the Seattle roster, which already sits at 23 members with only one – Lind – that can safely be sent to the minors. On one hand, these early injuries allow the Kraken to take a look at some players who otherwise would not have made the roster, like waiver claim Alex Barre-Boulet for example. On the other hand, these “extra” players will eventually need to be waived, traded, or force the team to trade others instead. Lind and Barre-Boulet seem like easy cuts, but that is just two of four. Would Ryan Donato, who scored the first goal in franchise history on Tuesday, clear waivers? Would young grinder Nathan Bastian? Veteran center Riley Sheahan? The Kraken have a number of questions left to answer and their early injuries have only kicked the can down the road. The longer they wait, especially if the team is playing well, the less likely their fringe players are to clear waivers and the less likely that potential trade partners may be to make a deal rather than wait them out. GM Ron Francis and company have their work cut out for them.
While the preseason trade market remained quiet and there were no earth-shattering waiver claims, this is at least partially due to some unexpected injuries in New York and Seattle. At some point these situations will need to be resolved and, one way or another, players will wind up changing hands.
Five Kraken Players In COVID Protocol
Oct 12: Johansson has been cleared and can play tonight, but Hakstol told reporters including Clark that Jarnkrok, McCann, Oleksiak and Donskoi are all still unavailable. The lineup is a “work in progress” for the Kraken.
Oct 11: Just after the Vegas Golden Knights announced that Mattias Janmark is in the COVID protocol, their opponent for tomorrow night had some even worse news. Seattle Kraken head coach Dave Hakstol told reporters including Ryan S. Clark of The Athletic that Calle Jarnkrok, Marcus Johansson, Jared McCann, Jamie Oleksiak and Joonas Donskoi are all in the COVID protocol.
Just like with Janmark, it is important to remember that inclusion in the protocol does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list–which actually won’t be released for the first time until tomorrow–are the following:
(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol.
Still, this is troubling news for a Kraken team that is expected to play the first game in franchise history tomorrow. Clark notes that the team is trying to get Alex Barre-Boulet, claimed off waivers today from the Tampa Bay Lightning to Vegas in time to play tomorrow night for the Kraken. Losing Jarnkrok, Johansson, McCann and Donskoi from the forward group is taking a huge chunk of the team’s offensive potential off the ice, though it is not confirmed yet if all of them will miss tomorrow’s game.
The team will have to make some adjustments to the roster before today’s deadline, not exactly the start that GM Ron Francis was likely hoping for as the Kraken get ready to take the ice for the first time.
Roster Decisions Loom For Seattle Kraken
The Seattle Kraken approached the Expansion Draft differently than the Vegas Golden Knights in a number of ways. They did not make any side deals, they wasted fewer selections on players they did not intend to sign, and they made fewer trades after the draft. While the results were too similarly deep teams, with the Knights adding talent through side deals and the Kraken going after several big free agents, Vegas did not face the roster crunch that Seattle is now staring down. The Knights pared down their roster strategically early on, while the Kraken are seemingly waiting to see how the preseason plays out. With those game already underway, the regular season is right around the corner and the Kraken’s inaugural 23-man roster is far from set.
The biggest question facing the NHL’s newest franchise is just how risk-averse are Ron Francis and company. Francis was a slow and methodical builder in Carolina who was actually criticized for taking too few changes and missing out on potential big swings. That Francis would look at this current roster and see a worrisome number of potential waivers casualties – and he would be right. CapFriendly currently projects forwards Morgan Geekie and Kole Lind and defensemen Dennis Cholowski and Cale Fleury as being among those sent down to the AHL. The odds of any of those players clearing waivers, nevertheless all five, seem slim. Geekie especially would be a can’t-miss waiver claim (and as such won’t be waived). Lind and Fleury are each only 22 and were highly-regarded prospects in the 2017 NHL Draft, while Cholowski has a 2016 first-rounder and already has 100+ NHL games under his belt.
Yet, the trade-off is obvious. The Kraken could take their chances and try to slip some or all of these names through waivers and establish elite depth in the minors or they could find space on the roster to avoid the threat of waivers. The latter would not be easy. Again, CapFriendly already has Seattle at 24 roster members, one more than is permissible. This is likely in recognition that Yanni Gourde is expected to begin the season on the injured reserve, but still presents issues once he returns. Clearly space for upwards of four additional contracts is a daunting task. The roster is rife with veteran talent, all of whom have been skating together in camp and building chemistry. The vast majority simply will not be assigned to the AHL, but even those on the bubble may have carved out a role for themselves already. Could the Kraken demote late-summer signings Riley Sheahan and Ryan Donato? Possibly, but that is just two openings and both at forward. On defense, there is seemingly no one that could be sent down and the Kraken are not going to carry nine or ten blue liners.
All of this leads to the real roster crunch question: trade or cut? Seattle will have to decide who they want on the 23-man roster and from there decide whether to test the trade market on the outliers or take the zero-sum approach of waivers. They would have little leverage in making deals with the roster crunch looming unless they decide to dangle players with enough value to create a bidding war. Constructing their opening night roster thus could mean determining not the 23 best players, but the 23 players that maximize their value with the others either possessing trade value or lesser waivers risk.
The roster crunch could go in a number of different directions for the Kraken. The one thing that is certain is that NHL’s newest roster is not going to look the same by the franchise’s regular season debut. Change is coming and it is key for the expansion club that they are the right changes.
Yanni Gourde Could Return Ahead Of Schedule For Seattle Kraken
The Seattle Kraken could be getting a top-six fixture back in the lineup earlier than expected. General manager Ron Francis reported in his press conference today, on the opening day of training camp for the team, that Gourde’s recovery from injury was progressing “ahead of schedule,” meaning he could be back in the lineup earlier than the previously projected early-December return.
Gourde was Seattle’s selection from the Tampa Bay Lightning in this year’s expansion draft, and he was immediately expected to take on an increased role in Seattle. Serving as arguably the best third-line center in the league behind Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli, Gourde brings a hard-working, solid two-way game with 50-60 point upside. Widely projected as the team’s no. 1 or no. 2 center, it was revealed just days after the draft that Gourde would miss the first two months of the season after having shoulder surgery.
It should be noted that Gourde was indeed at Seattle’s first day of training camp today, albeit in a red non-contact jersey.
The 29-year-old (soon to be 30) Gourde is among one of the best undrafted talents in the NHL. He’s brought home the Stanley Cup in two of his four full NHL seasons, all with Tampa Bay. His rookie campaign in 2017-18 saw him elevated into a top-six role due to injury, and he didn’t disappoint. Despite being 26 years old at the time, his 25 goals and 64 points in 82 games was good enough to earn him some Calder votes, finishing sixth overall in voting for the trophy.
Seattle hopes that a healthy Gourde in a top-six role this season can offer similar production.
Seattle Kraken Sign Riley Sheahan
The Seattle Kraken have added some depth to the lineup, signing Riley Sheahan to a one-year contract. The deal will carry a salary of $850K. Kraken GM Ron Francis released a short statement on the signing:
We’re excited to add an experienced veteran like Riley to our organization. His versatility, strong penalty-killing ability and skill in the faceoff circle make him a valuable addition to our forward group.
Sheahan, 29, has been around the league for a long time, filling out a bottom-six role on several teams. He made his NHL debut in 2011-12 with the Detroit Red Wings after being selected in the first round and has 566 games under his belt. In 2020-21 he played with the Buffalo Sabres, recording just four goals and 13 points in 53 games, but is an effective enough penalty killer to still be worth the one-way deal near the league minimum.
The fact that Sheahan can play both center and wing is probably the most important factor for Seattle, who don’t have a lot of depth down the middle. There are players with a bit of experience at center, but several of them will likely be asked to play a top-six wing position thanks to a lack of real scoring options. With that in mind, perhaps Sheahan slides in as the full-time fourth-line center, giving them an experienced veteran to surround by the less experienced players they selected in the expansion draft.
Still, this is certainly not a needle-pusher for the Kraken, who are still facing a potential roster crunch on defense as the season approaches.
Seattle Kraken Sign Marcus Johansson
The Seattle Kraken have added another top-nine forward, signing Marcus Johansson to a one-year, $1.5MM contract. The unrestricted free agent joins the expansion team after one year with the Minnesota Wild. Kraken GM Ron Francis released a short statement:
Marcus plays a fast game and brings us another veteran presence with a significant amount of playoff experience. His speed, skill and versatility will help our forward group.
Johansson, 30, was one of the few proven players left in free agency, even if he is coming off a poor year in Minnesota. The veteran forward has played nearly 700 regular season games in the NHL and has twice broken the 20-goal mark. This season with the Wild he recorded just six goals and 14 points in 36 games, but he has been valued for his versatility and two-way play in the past.
Things haven’t gone that well since he left the Washington Capitals organization in 2017 though. Johansson was traded to the New Jersey Devils for two relatively high draft picks, and immediately ran into injury trouble. He’d play just 29 games in the 2017-18 season, redirecting 14 points. The next season was better, but he’d be flipped to the Boston Bruins at the deadline when New Jersey was out of it. It’s in Boston where he flashed his high ceiling again, recording 11 points in 22 playoff games. That postseason performance landed him a two-year, $9MM contract from the Buffalo Sabres, which–perhaps unsurprisingly because of the struggles Buffalo has endured–didn’t go well.
Now on a one-year deal at a low cost, Johansson bears all the markings of a potential bounce-back player. There will be plenty of opportunities for offensive minutes in Seattle and he’s still young enough to take advantage of them. The fact that he has experience at all three forward positions will only help head coach Dave Hakstol as he’s filling out a lineup card, which will likely always have Johansson’s name somewhere on it.
The Kraken still have plenty of cap space to spend and this is exactly the type of chance they should be taking. Even if the team struggles to put it all together in year one, players like Johansson can be easily flipped at the trade deadline for a future asset.
Will Borgen Agrees To Terms With Seattle Kraken
The Seattle Kraken have agreed to terms with one of the players they selected in the expansion draft and will sign Will Borgen to a two-year deal. The contract will carry an average annual value of $900K. Borgen was the team’s choice from the Buffalo Sabres at last month’s draft. Kraken GM Ron Francis released a short statement:
Will is a responsible, defensive defenseman who’s size and physical style of play can add a spark to a lineup. He’s still young and developing. We believe in his upside.
Borgen, 24, ended up being left unprotected by the Sabres in order to secure the substantial return they received for Rasmus Ristolainen a few days later. Even with Jeff Skinner waiving his no-movement clause, the team decided to protect seven forwards and three defensemen, leaving the inexperienced blueliner on the outside. The Kraken snapped him up and now have him signed through 2022-23 for a very reasonable amount.
Of course, it would have been hard for Borgen to negotiate much more, given he’s played just 14 NHL games and doesn’t have a single point to his name. The 6’3″ defenseman was a fourth-round pick by the Sabres in 2015 and is only just emerging as an NHL option. Whether he gets regular playing time in Seattle isn’t even clear, given how many other defensemen the team still has under contract. The Kraken already had six defensemen on one-way contracts, plus Vince Dunn, Cale Fleury and Dennis Cholowski still to sign as restricted free agents. They brought in Connor Carrick yesterday as well, meaning things are quite crowded on the Seattle back end.
That long defensive depth chart actually suggests that the Kraken will have to make a move or two before the start of the season, given that none of them are waiver-exempt. Whether that will be Borgen or someone else isn’t clear, but an acquiring team would at least know what to expect in terms of his contract now.
Seattle Kraken Take Matthew Beniers Second Overall
Fresh off of the NHL Expansion Draft just two days ago, the Seattle Kraken were back in action early in the NHL Draft on Friday night. The winners of the second overall pick in the draft lottery, the Kraken had their pick of every prospect but first overall pick Owen Power of the Buffalo Sabres. They opted to take his University of Michigan teammate Matthew Beniers as the first draft pick in franchise history.
Beniers is the top center prospect in the draft class and an elite two-way talent. The consensus No. 2 pick, Beniers is a high-IQ, well-rounded forward. A talented skater who plays a 200-foot game, Beniers has excelled at every level in both the offensive and defensive aspects of the game. The dynamic center draws comparisons to Patrice Bergeron and Jonathan Toews, not to mention Seattle GM Ron Francis. Beniers has been a point-per-game player in each of the past three years, including in the NCAA with Michigan this season.
One of four 2021 Wolverines selected in the top five picks, Beniers is expected to join his teammates back in Ann Arbor this season as Michigan chases a National Championship. After one more year though, he should be able to jump into the lineup for the Kraken. Due to his two-way focus, Beniers will be a versatile roster option right away for Seattle and could earn a major role quickly in a forward corps that, as of right now, is not especially deep.
Seattle Kraken Ownership Give Ron Francis Green Light To Spend To Cap
In a Q&A post with The Athletic’s Ryan S. Clark today, Seattle Kraken CEO Tod Leiweke said today that he’s encouraged general manager Ron Francis to spend to the salary cap, if possible, in order to build a contending roster out of the gate.
The statement from Leiweke comes amidst one of the most hectic and compact offseasons in recent history, especially considering the lack of a salary cap increase. The fact that Seattle will be able to take advantage of the full $81.5MM available to them already gives them a competitive advantage on a handful of teams for a variety of reasons. The majority of NHL teams are still dealing with either buyouts, overage penalties, or retained salary transactions that will lower their spending ceiling next season. For some teams, spending to the cap is currently impossible as they continue to suffer from COVID-related financial losses.
It also allows Seattle to add some assets to the franchise’s cupboards in exchange for helping other teams out of their cap trouble. They’ll likely be a trade partner for the cap-strapped Tampa Bay Lightning, who currently need to clear over $5MM in cap in order to be compliant in 2021-22. A name like Yanni Gourde or Tyler Johnson could easily find themselves playing in the Pacific Northwest next season. And with some top-end free agents still remaining, the full amount of usable cap space may better enable Seattle to make a run at some big names like Dougie Hamilton or David Krejci, if they so choose.
While it’s impossible to expect a 109-point run of terror in their first season, things are shaping up to make at least a playoff berth a realistic option for the Kraken in Year One. With the Pacific Division shaping up as a weak matchup, combined with their salary cap advantages, Seattle should be a great draw out of the gate.