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PHR Playoff Primer: Vegas Golden Knights vs Edmonton Oilers

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our Second Round coverage with the Pacific Division matchup between the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers.

Not much separated the Vegas Golden Knights and Edmonton Oilers in the regular season. Both teams battled to the very end to determine the winner of the Pacific Division, with Vegas finally emerging and finishing just two points ahead of their division rival.

Though they ended up at the top of the division, it was not an easy ride for either team this season. The Golden Knights had to overcome many significant injuries, including Robin Lehner, their starting goaltender, missing the entire season, Mark Stone, an exceptional two-way winger missing the second half of the season and top defenseman Shea Theodore missing significant time in the middle of the season with injury as well.

The Oilers didn’t have the same injury troubles, though Evander Kane missed half the season after having his wrist cut by a skate blade. Their adversity was more about past issues coming back to haunt them. Those issues were goaltending problems as Jack Campbell struggled all season after signing a five-year contract with a $5MM cap hit. The defense seemed to be a bit too offensive minded as well and were not able to shut things down well enough to be a serious Stanley Cup contender.

Regular Season Performance

Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Florida: 50-23-9, 109 points, +65 goal differential

Head-To-Head

November 19, 2022: Edmonton 4, Vegas 3 (OT)
January 14, 2023: Edmonton 4, Vegas 3
March 25, 2023: Vegas 4, Edmonton 3 (OT)
March 28, 2023: Edmonton 7, Vegas 4

Edmonton takes season series 3-0-1

Team Storylines

The Oilers seemed to flip a switch at the trade deadline and put all those past defensive issues in the rearview mirror. There were two main reasons for this team finally looking like a sound defensive team as well as an elite offensive team instead of a one-dimensional squad that we have seen in the past.

First, they acquired Mattias Ekholm from the Nashville Predators at the trade deadline and he immediately became their best defensive defenseman as well as their top defender on the penalty kill. He eats up a ton of minutes and plays against the other teams best players while putting up points and ensuring the opposition stays off the scoresheet.

Secondly, the Oilers finally started to rely more on goaltender Stuart Skinner late in the season instead of Campbell. While Campbell’s contract would suggest he is their top guy, Skinner played extremely well down the stretch, starting 16 of the team’s final 21 games and posting a 2.43 GAA and a .920 SV%.

Skinner didn’t quite continue that performance in round one against the Los Angeles Kings as he posted a GAA near 3.50 as well as a .890 SV%. He is going to need to be closer to his regular season numbers if the Oilers want to advance to the Western Conference Final for the second consecutive season.

Apr 16, 2022; Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

Also, the Oilers are an offensive juggernaut, but they leaned pretty heavily on just three players in their six game round one win. Connor McDavid has ten points, as did young defenseman Evan Bouchard and Leon Draisaitl led the team with 11 points. However, no one else on the team had more than four points in the opening round. That’s not horrible, especially since Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kane, Klim Kostin and Ekholm all had four points, but having a forward other than Draisaitl and McDavid score a point-per-game pace would give the Oilers incredible scoring depth.

It won’t be easy to score at will against the Golden Knights who lost their opening game of the postseason but then eliminated the Winnipeg Jets with four straight victories. They may not have an elite scorer like McDavid or Draisaitl, but they have incredible scoring depth that allowed them to quickly dispose of the Jets.

Chandler Stephenson and Stone led the way with eight points each in five games while William Karlsson, Jack Eichel and Alex Pietrangelo all had five points in the series. Add in Reilly Smith, Jonathan Marchessault, Theodore and Ivan Barbashev and the Golden Knights have scorers up and down their lineup as well as on their blue line.

The Golden Knights will lean on Laurent Brossoit in goal, giving each team a starter with very little playoff experience. Brossoit was solid against his former team, the Jets, in round one posting a .915 SV% and being good enough to outduel Connor Hellebuyck in the other end.

Prediction

Both teams have some inexperience in goal, and the ability to score almost at will. The Oilers have the top end guys while the Golden Knights have plenty of scoring depth, but putting pucks in the net will not be an issue in this series.

It should be a long series, but the defensive depth on the Golden Knights blue line may be the determining factor. Having to face Theodore, Pietrangelo, Alec Martinez and Brayden McNabb will give the Oilers depth players little chance to score while limiting their top guns just enough to outlast them in a long, back and forth series. In the end, home ice advantage in that last game may prove to be the difference.

Prediction: Golden Knights win in seven games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Toronto Maple Leafs vs. Florida Panthers

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our Second Round coverage with the Atlantic Division matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers.

Two teams with very short histories of recent playoff success will face off against each other in the Second Round. What could go wrong?

Both teams overcame adversity to get to this point, although one team’s path is much more impressive than the other. The Florida Panthers are here against all odds, finishing the regular season as the 17th-place team in the league but vanquishing the record-setting Boston Bruins in seven games. It’s the first time in franchise history the Panthers have advanced in the postseason in back-to-back years.

The Maple Leafs, while favored to win their series, exorcised past failures in their own right, advancing in the playoffs for the first time in nearly two decades. It’s a massive step toward ending the longest championship drought in the league, one in which they’ll have to vanquish both Florida teams to end.

Regular Season Performance

Toronto: 50-21-11, 111 points, +57 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential

Head-To-Head

January 17, 2023: Florida 4, Toronto 5 (OT)
March 23, 2023: Toronto 6, Florida 2
March 29, 2023: Florida 3, Toronto 2 (OT)
April 10, 2023: Toronto 2, Florida 1 (OT)

Toronto takes season series 3-0-1

Team Storylines

It was a tale of two seasons for the Florida Panthers, who went 12-5-2 after the trade deadline to rocket back into playoff position after a disappointing first half to the campaign. Fortunately for them, they were able to keep it rolling in the playoffs, and their early-series dominance and late-series heroics were enough to create one of the largest upsets in NHL history.

It should strike fear into the Toronto Maple Leafs, who deserve full credit for their series win, but were outplayed heavily at times by the Lightning and got some soft goals past a normally stout Andrei Vasilevskiy. One main reason for optimism for Leafs fans, however, is their play against Florida down the stretch. Three of their four season matchups game within the last few weeks of the campaign, with Florida scratching and clawing for playoff positioning. Toronto came out victorious in two of the three games, dropping the other in overtime.

Toronto was able to get to the slot with ease in their 6-2 win, forcing nine high-danger chances against Sergei Bobrovsky. Their more balanced attack, with the inclusion of Ryan O’Reilly to the third line, will be key in getting through a Florida defense that lacks depth behind Brandon Montour and Aaron Ekblad.

Goaltending may as well be a toss-up in this series. With Bobrovsky reclaiming the starter’s net in Florida, he and Ilya Samsonov have had very similar postseasons. Both have let in shaky goals at times but have turned it on in clutch moments, stealing their team’s games despite mediocre save percentages.

Defensively, Toronto will need to change their game plan when hemmed in their own zone. A common criticism against Toronto in the first round was their passiveness, allowing the Lightning to cycle freely in the zone and activate their defensemen at the points. With Montour’s current offensive dominance for Florida, he’ll be an unleashed weapon in this series if the Leafs aren’t more aggressive in covering the points.  There’s also the matter of Matthew Tkachuk to stop, who’s taken Florida on his back this season.

The same goes for Florida, who have to contend with a red-hot Morgan Rielly for Toronto. The Maple Leafs were much more confident moving the puck in their series-clinching Game 6 win, largely in part due to swapping in Timothy Liljegren in the lineup for Justin Holl. That change is expected to stick for Game 1.

Prediction

Both teams won their series in similar ways: clutch saves and mastering a “bend but don’t break” mentality. With the monkey off the Maple Leafs’ backs, however, the advantage goes to the team with better depth at every position.

Toronto’s ability to roll three lines and advance the puck out of the zone with a more confident defense, as well as a dialed-in Ilya Samsonov, should keep the upstart Panthers at bay and guide the Maple Leafs to the conference finals for the first time since 2002.

Prediction: Maple Leafs win in six games.

Offseason Checklist: San Jose Sharks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at San Jose.

Expectations were rather low for the Sharks this season as GM Mike Grier signaled that a rebuild was on the way, highlighted by the move that saw Brent Burns go to Carolina.  The team muddled their way through this season and while there were some strong individual performances, San Jose was still near the bottom of the Western Conference.  With them still in teardown mode, their checklist this summer largely revolves around moving out more veterans.

Create Cap Flexibility

Typically, a lot of teams at the bottom of the standings often have cap space at their disposal.  This comes as a result of jettisoning some veterans in favor of using younger players.  That is quite likely the goal for San Jose as well but they’re nowhere near that point yet.

At the moment, assuming the salary cap goes up by $1MM to $83.5MM, the Sharks have about $15MM to work with, per CapFriendly.  They also have upwards of seven spots to fill with that money which doesn’t give them much room to try to go after an impact free agent if they want to expedite things or get involved on the trade front to take on a contract or two while being compensated with draft picks or prospects for doing so.

Grier should also want to keep an eye on 2024-25 this summer as well.  San Jose’s commitments drop to a little under $47MM for that season but that’s with only eight players signed.  Spending less than that amount to sign upwards of 60% of his roster will be difficult, especially if the Upper Limit of the cap jumps that summer, sending salaries upward quicker.  Creating more flexibility for that season is something that will need to be considered as well.

Buyout Decisions

Keeping 2024-25 (and beyond) in mind is likely to impact what San Jose does on the buyout front.  They have several players whose performance could legitimately have them under consideration in defensemen Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Radim Simek plus winger Kevin Labanc.  But doing so adds a lot of dead money to San Jose’s cap when they already have Martin Jones’ buyout on the books through 2027.

Vlasic’s contract has been a bust so far.  He still has three years left on a deal that carries a $7MM AAV which is top-pairing money.  However, the 36-year-old has been more of a third-pairing player in recent years.  A buyout would free up over $5.5MM next season but the structure of the contract means the cap savings would only be $2.8MM in 2024-25 while overall, nearly $16MM in dead cap charges would hit San Jose’s books over six seasons.  That’s a high price to pay someone not to play for you anymore and it wouldn’t be surprising to see Grier wait at least one more year to make the charges a little less drastic.

As for Simek and Labanc, both are entering the final year of their deals so there is no long-term cap consideration at play here.  Simek’s buyout would save $1.3MM on the cap next season while adding $650K in 2024-25.  Meanwhile, Labanc’s would free up nearly $4MM next season but add almost $2MM on the books for 2024-25.  Both were scratched at times this year and could see their spots filled by someone younger and cheaper.

Individually, there’s a case to be made for all three players to be bought out but adding more dead money to the books for 2024-25 when they’re going to have so many spots to fill will have to be considered as well.  Will that wind up being too much of a deterrent?  They have a couple of months to figure that out.

Decide Karlsson’s Future

It’s not often that a 32-year-old player has a career year.  But that’s what happened to defenseman Erik Karlsson this season.  A year after managing 35 points in 50 games, his numbers took off as the veteran tallied 25 goals and 76 assists to lead all NHL blueliners in scoring while making him a contender for his third career Norris Trophy.  In doing so, Karlsson’s name came up in trade speculation although no deal materialized.

Of course, there’s a very good reason for that.  Karlsson has four years remaining on his deal which carries an AAV of $11.5MM, the highest given to a defenseman in NHL history.  In a salary cap world, that’s a hard deal to move at any time but especially in-season.  But now it’s the offseason when deals are a little easier to make.  That will bring Karlsson’s future back to the forefront.

On the one hand, it’s hard to imagine Karlsson’s value getting any higher than it might be now.  On the other hand, with that contract, his trade value might not be all that high.  It’s a contract that Grier will have to pay down to some extent; doing so would encumber two of their three retained salary slots through the 2025-26 campaign, not to mention costing millions in actual salary dollars for a player not to play for them.

A year ago, it looked like Karlsson would have been in the mix for the most untradeable contract in the league.  Now, it looks like they’ll have an opportunity to get some value for him, although if the deal winds up being like the Burns one, a good chunk of the return might wind up simply being cap space.

Goaltending Upgrade

While it might seem counter-intuitive for a rebuilding team to look for a goaltending upgrade, getting a starting netminder has been on San Jose’s to-do list for a while since Jones failed to live up to his old deal.  Former GM Doug Wilson hoped he addressed the vacancy when he picked up Kaapo Kahkonen last year but the 26-year-old has played to a 3.64 GAA and a .890 SV% since being acquired.  He’s under contract for next season at $2.75MM so he’ll be in the mix but as a pending UFA in 2024, Kahkonen isn’t really a long-term fixture at this point.

James Reimer has been a serviceable veteran backup but he’s set to hit the open market this summer and doesn’t appear to be a strong candidate to return.  Meanwhile, veteran Aaron Dell is a serviceable third-stringer but isn’t a long-term solution at the NHL level either.  He’s also a pending UFA.

In terms of their prospects, Eetu Makiniemi showed some promise with the Barracuda this season but isn’t believed to be a starter in the making.  Strauss Mann held his own in his first taste of the minors but isn’t close to being NHL-ready.  San Jose is hoping Magnus Chrona could be part of the solution eventually but he is only starting his pro career next season and also isn’t close to being in the mix.

If there’s an opportunity to acquire a young netminder with some upside in a trade (perhaps as part of a Karlsson swap), it wouldn’t be surprising to see Grier try to do that.  Failing that, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them hand out a multi-year contract to a veteran in July to make sure they have a bit of stability at that position while continuing the search for a longer-term solution.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Golden Knights, Red Wings, Offer Sheets, Lafreniere, Swayman, Coyotes, Conn Smythe

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the potential for an offer sheet this summer, Alexis Lafreniere’s future with the Rangers, Jeremy Swayman’s trade value, and more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

aka.nda: What wizardry does the Golden Knights’ offseason have in store for us?

Rarely has there been a dull summer for Vegas since they joined the league but I think this offseason could be the exception.  They’re not in a spot where they have to dump salary to be compliant with the salary cap.  I’m sure they’d like to try to re-sign Ivan Barbashev but depending on what happens with other areas, they might not even need to clear money to make that happen.

A lot of their offseason activity this summer will revolve around Robin Lehner.  Is he able to come back?  If yes, then they might want to look to trim some money if they want to realistically try to keep Barbashev in the fold.  Otherwise, they can put him back on LTIR and use his $5MM.  Some of that will go towards a backup to Logan Thompson (likely Adin Hill, Laurent Brossoit, or another veteran netminder) but that won’t cost $5MM alone; they can use some of that plus their cap space and try to keep Barbashev that way.

If they do decide they want to move some money out, Alec Martinez is the logical choice.  He’ll be on an expiring deal next season and isn’t the impact defender he was when he first joined the Golden Knights.  Accordingly, his $5.25MM AAV is on the high side.  They probably won’t be able to clear that full deal without either paying part of it down or giving up other assets but they could take back a forward making a bit less to fill one of the vacancies that will be created in free agency.

Vegas likes to chase down the big deal, I get it.  But there isn’t an elite free agent out there and let’s face it, they probably don’t have the prospect pool and draft capital to make the top offer in the bidding for an impact player on the trade market.  Years of moving picks and prospects will do that to a team.  So perhaps this summer will be a quiet one for Vegas, one that sees them lose a few players but keep the core largely intact.  In other words, the type of summer that befits a strong contender.

gowings2008: What are some 2nd line center options for Detroit heading into next season?

I have some bad news for any team looking for help down the middle this summer – there isn’t much in free agency to get excited about.  Is Max Domi worthy of a long-term commitment to play on the second line?  Maybe but I’m not sure Detroit is the right team to give him that deal.  Has J.T. Compher shown enough to be a legitimate second-liner?  I’m not sold that he’s a 50-point player on the Red Wings.  Ryan O’Reilly (the established veteran, not the Detroit center prospect with the same name) could fit as a short-term option and fits the bridge veteran approach GM Steve Yzerman has taken with some of his pickups in recent years so perhaps he’s an option.  Assuming that Boston’s middlemen re-sign or retire, those three are the top options on the open market.

On the trade front, is the time right for Detroit to push a bunch of chips in to make a big splash and add an impact center?  That’s not typically what a non-playoff team does so I’m not sure they really are too active on this front.  Without many long-term commitments on the books, I wouldn’t be shocked if they kicked the tires on Kevin Hayes in Philadelphia, especially if the Flyers are willing to pay that deal down a little bit.  Then that becomes another bridge veteran approach, someone that can hold a spot while they hope to draft and develop a future impact center.

Honestly, I think the answer to this question is the same player as this year, Andrew Copp.  I like him more as a third-liner but I don’t think Michael Rasmussen and Joe Veleno are true top-six options at this point in time.  As a result, I think it’s Copp’s spot to lose.

Josh2831: Any players you see that could get a serious offer sheet this summer and could the Predators be the team to make the offer?

Generally speaking, offer sheets are so rare that my answer to a question like this will almost automatically be no.  In most cases, the offer has to be so high above market value to deter the team from matching and when you look at the thresholds, it’s hard to find a price point for a player that the signing team is comfortable with and the other team won’t match.  I don’t think anyone goes above the $8.58MM level and unless the player isn’t that good, whichever team is offer sheeted will match.  Frankly, I think the lower end of the market is where there could be so much more activity (in the third-round range or less) but everyone plays nice on that front so I don’t expect anything to happen there either.

But there is one player who could theoretically be a bigger risk to sign an offer sheet, Pierre-Luc Dubois.  He’s a year away from unrestricted free agency and if Winnipeg was to match a one-year offer sheet, they wouldn’t be able to trade him.  The Jets would then be faced with accepting the draft pick compensation as a return or walking him straight to the open market in 2024.  And if he really wanted to make it interesting, he’d opt for the top of the grid where the compensation is a first-round pick and a third-rounder ($6.435MM).  Doing so probably leaves money on the table but anything higher than that is a punitive price for the signing team for what’s likely to be a one-year rental and Winnipeg would happily take the picks and run and Dubois shouldn’t want to hurt his potential new team.

At that lower price point, it’s a harder call to make, especially if GM Kevin Cheveldayoff wants to give some of this core group one more chance, perhaps with a couple of changes based on how the playoffs went.  Dubois probably wouldn’t sign a multi-year offer as doing so means Winnipeg could match and he’d have to stay longer than he might want to, assuming his end goal is still to move elsewhere.

By the way, I don’t think it would be Montreal, his speculative desired destination, giving him that offer sheet as with where they are in their rebuild, moving an unprotected first-round pick isn’t a good idea, especially if they think they could get him in free agency a year later.  For a contender with some cap space though, that pick is going to be much lower in the first round and such a move becomes more justifiable.

Now, for Nashville specifically, my answer is a question back to you.  Why would they get in on an offer sheet?  They’re a team that appears to be in transition right now, the type of team that shouldn’t be willing to part with unprotected draft picks to sign a player at above-market value.  I don’t see the incentive for them to get in on any offer sheets this summer.

Jasen: With the Rangers being in win-now mode, and the Canadiens being in a rebuild, any chance at all that the Canadiens might be able to trade for Lafreniere? And if yes, would a 1st and A prospect be enough to get the deal done?

Philosophically speaking, a team that’s rebuilding probably shouldn’t be parting with first-round picks but Montreal technically did last year, flipping the first-rounder they got for Alexander Romanov to get Kirby Dach.  So, I suppose it’s possible they could kick the tires, especially since they have an extra pick in the first round in June.  I don’t think they’d go that high with an offer, however, considering he hasn’t been able to consistently crack New York’s top six and the fact that Montreal isn’t at the point yet where they should be moving their top prospects or their first-round pick which will be no worse than seventh overall.  An offer that has Florida’s first-round pick this year (assuming it lands at 17th overall) and a couple of ‘B’ prospects (or equivalent pick) is around as high as I think they’d go right now.  And unless New York has soured on him that much, I don’t think they should take that offer.

As for the Rangers’ side of things, I don’t think the idea of moving Lafreniere is necessarily a bad one.  They’re going to have some tough decisions to make this summer from a cap perspective and while they could try to bridge the 21-year-old to keep the short-term cost down, it’s only kicking the cap problem down the road for a year or two.  Are they better off taking a futures-based return now and using that money to put on a long-term K’Andre Miller contract instead?  I think there’s a case to be made for that approach, especially if New York is hesitant in thinking that Lafreniere will break out and become that top-level talent that made him the first-overall selection back in 2020.  Moving on that quickly from a top pick would sting but if they can get a first-round pick plus an ‘A’ prospect like your proposal suggests, it might be the right move for them to make.  I just don’t see the Canadiens being the team to offer the top package.

SkidRowe: If he’s too expensive to re-sign, what can the Bruins get for Jeremy Swayman in the offseason?

Whenever I get a goalie trade value question, I usually take the answer that comes up in my head and dial it down a peg or two since recent history suggests that goalie trade values aren’t very good.  But I’m not going to do so here.

Here are two quick stat lines to consider before reading further.

Swayman: 88 GP, 2.27 GAA, .920 SV%
Mystery Player: 98 GP, 2.20 GAA, .927 SV%

The mystery player is Cory Schneider and those are his career numbers at the time he was traded at the draft back in 2013 in a deal that saw Vancouver pick up the ninth-overall pick.  Schneider’s numbers are a bit better but Swayman is younger and has more team control (three years) than Schneider did at the time (two years).  If I’m Boston GM Don Sweeney, a first-round pick in that range is what I’m looking for.  Pittsburgh at 14 is the only team that stands out so an equivalent drafted prospect could also be an option, if not potentially preferable if they’re looking to stay in the mix next season.

Granted, there are many teams that eschew the idea of drafting a goalie in the first round.  But there’s a difference between drafting one and getting one who has already shown himself to be an above-average goaltender.  At a time when a lot of teams are looking for quality goaltending, a young, controllable option with an early good track record sounds pretty appealing, even if it costs a first-rounder or equivalent prospect.  It has been a while since a goalie has brought that type of return but I think Swayman can be the exception.

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Offseason Checklist: Chicago Blackhawks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated quickly.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Chicago.

The fact that the Blackhawks struggled this season should have come as no surprise.  They unloaded several key players last summer and continued that at the trade deadline before announcing they won’t be trying to re-sign Jonathan Toews for next year and beyond.  GM Kyle Davidson has largely a blank canvas to work with but with the team still firmly committed to the rebuild, the to-do list isn’t the biggest beyond adding more future assets.  Even so, there are some decisions that will need to be made in the coming months.

Decide Athanasiou’s Fate

When Chicago signed Max Domi and Andreas Athanasiou to one-year, $3MM deals mere minutes into free agency back in July, they both seemed like strong candidates to be moved elsewhere at the deadline.  While that was the case with Domi, that didn’t happen with Athanasiou.  Instead, he stayed with them and did well down the stretch while sometimes playing alongside one of their top prospects in Lukas Reichel.

Accordingly, would it be worth it for the Blackhawks to look into extending the 28-year-old on a short-term deal?  They’re not going to be able to ice a lineup of strictly youngsters as there is a cap floor to be met (more on that later) and if Athanasiou is comfortable with the situation in Chicago, perhaps he’s someone worth keeping around.

However, with 20 goals and 20 assists, Athanasiou has likely built up enough value to command at least a two-year deal somewhere this time around.  With that in mind, giving Athanasiou another contract might take him off the table for being traded, at least in the short term, especially if they have to give him a bit above market value to convince him to avoid going to a team that is more interested in short-term success.

Assess Murphy’s Market

The list of proven veterans that the Blackhawks have moved out over the last year is quite impressive to the point where it’s fair to wonder if they have anyone left that could realistically be traded.  Seth Jones and his $9.5MM contract likely won’t be in play due to his contract.  However, another veteran blueliner could realistically find himself in trade talks, Connor Murphy.

The 30-year-old signed his current contract just over a year and a half ago with the hopes that Chicago would be looking to push for short-term success.  Clearly, that’s not the plan now.  Murphy has three years left on that deal with a $4.4MM cap hit, a reasonable price for someone that typically logs around 20 minutes a game, kills penalties, and plays a steady, defensive role.  Frankly, there’s a role for him on the Blackhawks to work with some of their younger blueliners but in a defensive market that isn’t the deepest in terms of free agent or trade options, Chicago should be looking into what they can get for him, especially with right-shot players being in high demand.

Back at the trade deadline, Chicago picked up a first-round pick for Jake McCabe, a blueliner who carries a similar cap hit as Murphy with term left on his deal.  It took them eating half the contract but considering they don’t have many tradable assets with high price tags at the moment, it could be defensible for them to consider doing so here as well, especially if it helps them land another quality draft pick.  One option available to Chicago now that might not be during the season is the ability to take back a pricey contract which could also help defray the cost of Murphy’s deal if the Blackhawks don’t want to retain any money.

It’s not a foregone conclusion that they have to move Murphy this summer, assuming they can overcome his 10-team no-trade protection.  Perhaps the smarter play is to wait until the trade deadline and try to do a McCabe-like deal again.  At a minimum, Davidson needs to see what trade options are out there for the veteran defender over the next couple of months.

Goaltending Decisions

On the surface, it seems like Chicago’s goaltending situation is sorted out.  Petr Mrazek, by virtue of his contract, will be one of the netminders with one of Arvid Soderblom or Jaxson Stauber serving as the backup.  But with how much Mrazek struggled this season, not to mention how things went for him in Toronto, should he really be guaranteed a roster spot for 2023-24?

Alex Stalock was one of the feel-good stories around the NHL this season, recovering from myocarditis that limited him severely the last two seasons to post a .908 SV%, an above-average rate on a team that wasn’t exactly a model of defensive play.  He’s an unrestricted free agent this summer and with the need to get at least one of their youngsters some NHL action, it’s understandable to think he won’t be back.  But if Mrazek isn’t in the picture anymore, would that change things?

Chicago knows they can easily bury Mrazek’s deal in the minors as his struggles will deter any team from picking him up off waivers.  But with the other of Soderblom and Stauber in the picture plus prospect Drew Commesso, would they want Mrazek with Rockford taking away playing time?  Accordingly, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them consider buying him out, a move that would free up about $3MM in cap space next season while adding just under $1.5MM in 2024-25, a price tag that should be of no concern to them given their cap situation.

Are they better off parting ways with Mrazek this summer to try to keep Stalock around or to sign a different veteran netminder that can handle some starts altogether?  It’s a choice they’ll want to make by the late-June buyout deadline.

Spend, Spend, Spend

At the moment, the Blackhawks have over $40MM in cap space for next season, per CapFriendly, assuming that the cap goes up by $1MM as planned.  And that space would only go up with a Mrazek buyout.  Now, you might be thinking to yourself that Chicago won’t be a cap team and you’re probably right.  But there is a Lower Limit to the cap that everyone has to get to.  They are presently around $20MM below what that mark is likely to be next season.

Yes, they have a few roster spots to fill with that money and if they re-sign Athanasiou, that will take up a chunk of it.  But even with that, they have a long way to go and filling those spots with low-cost prospects isn’t going to get them close to the minimum spending.  While they’re clearly a team that isn’t gearing up for a playoff run anytime soon, they’re effectively going to be buyers to an extent.

Davidson has two possible avenues to work with here.  He can do like he did with Domi and Athanasiou last summer, signing them to ‘sign and flip’ deals that will see them moved at or around the trade deadline for futures.  Alternatively, with so many teams expected to be tight to the Upper Limit, Chicago is well-positioned to take on an unwanted contract or two (or more) while adding draft picks and prospects for doing so.  While we know they’ll be sellers next February, expect the Blackhawks to be adding some veterans to their roster in the coming months to help get them cap-compliant while setting themselves up to add future assets as well.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Columbus Blue Jackets

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Columbus.

Last season, the Blue Jackets were more competitive than a lot of people expected and GM Jarmo Kekalainen responded by making a big splash on the free agent market, inking Johnny Gaudreau to a seven-year deal.  In doing so, expectations shifted.  However, things certainly didn’t go according to plan as they finished last in the Eastern Conference so changes are on the horizon for them in the coming months.

Find A New Coach

Not surprisingly, after the summer they had and how things went this season, Brad Larsen’s tenure as head coach came to an end as he was let go after two years as the bench boss.  The team posted a 62-86-16 record with him at the helm.  At the time he was promoted after serving as an assistant to John Tortorella, Larsen felt like a logical choice in the sense that the team was beginning a rebuild.  Are they going to take a step back again now?

That’s a question that Kekalainen is going to have to ponder.  This team has ample cap space (nearly $20MM per CapFriendly) this summer which could give them some key additions to try to win now.  If that’s the direction they’re going to go, then a veteran bench boss with a track record of short-term success is likely what they’re going to want to look for.  After all, adding Gaudreau on the richest free agent deal in franchise history only to turn around and rebuild again a year later would be a bit of a surprising turnaround.

On the other hand, with how they struggled this season, it would be surprising to see Columbus push for playoff contention in 2023-24.  Accordingly, another first-time coach with an eye on prospect development might be the better way to go.  While this number is certainly exacerbated by injuries and late-season recalls, Columbus used 30 players that are 25 or younger this season.  Most of them will still be in the organization next year and with a lot of future core pieces in the group, a longer-term build might be the better long-term play.  Who they hire as their next head coach might signal which way they’re leaning on the roster front.  Whichever way they go, it’s likely they won’t make a move right away as they’ll likely want to speak to some assistants that are on teams still in the playoffs.

Bring In New Goalie Coach

Generally, a team needing a goalie coach wouldn’t typically get much more than a passing mention here.  However, with how poorly Elvis Merzlikins played this season, finding the right hire to replace Manny Legace is going to be quite critical.

To put into context how much Merzlikins struggled, there were 62 goalies that played 20 games or more in 2022-23.  He was 62nd in GAA (4.23) and 61st in SV% (.876).  The good news is that he can really go up from there but he has a long way to go to even get back to being league average.

The 29-year-old has four years left on his contract which carries a $5.4MM AAV.  Right now, that deal would be difficult to trade with how he performed this season and Daniil Tarasov isn’t ready to take over as the full-fledged starter just yet; he has just 21 career NHL appearances under his belt.  Accordingly, the new goalie coach will be a key addition as if he can help Merzlikins turn things around, it would go a long way toward helping them get back in the playoff picture sooner than later.

Add Center Help

Locking down a true top center has been a challenge for Columbus in recent years with their best candidate, Pierre-Luc Dubois, eventually being traded to Winnipeg for Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic.  The end result is that Columbus was using Boone Jenner as their top middleman this season.  Jenner is a quality player, no doubt, but he is not a true top-liner.  Roslovic, meanwhile, was inconsistent throughout the season and he is likely to be in trade speculation this summer.

The good news for the Blue Jackets is that they have young centers in the system in Cole Sillinger and Kent Johnson.  They’re certainly hoping that one of them will be able to emerge as a top-liner down the road.  And, who knows, they could land one in the draft as they’re able to hold down a top-three spot.  But any of those players are still likely a couple of years away from really emerging as reliable top-six options.  If they intend to try to get back into the playoff picture before then, they’re going to have to add a center or two.

It will be interesting to see if the Blue Jackets decide to continue their late-season experiment with playing Laine down the middle next year.  If he can hold his own in that role, that would take some pressure off Jenner and at least get them a short-term stopgap.  They’re also likely to add Dmitry Voronkov for next season although he won’t be ready to play in the top six right away either.  But even with those, more help is needed, especially if Laine isn’t able to play there full-time.

Landing a true number one pivot will be difficult for Columbus this summer as frankly, there aren’t likely to be any available.  Instead, Kekalainen will have to settle for adding a second-line option.  They’ve been speculatively linked to Philadelphia’s Kevin Hayes and perhaps that’s the type of move they should be targeting, adding a player that can help but whose cap hit is high enough that the other team can’t command a significant return.  Depending on the player, Columbus could be compensated for taking on the deal.  If they want to use their cap space this summer, that’s one creative way to try to fill a need without losing much of consequence.

Creative Spending

Speaking of that cap space, the Blue Jackets will be one of only a handful of teams with significant room under the cap this summer.  They currently project to have around $18MM per CapFriendly with only a handful of roster spots to fill.  Notably, there aren’t any free agents of note to deal with either that will cut into that amount by a significant amount.

Granted, Columbus is typically a budget team, not a cap team so it remains to be seen how much of that roughly $18MM will actually be at their disposal.  But at a minimum, a good chunk of it should be spendable for Kekalainen.

If they want to try to make another splash in free agency, the money should be there.  But that might not be the best move for them, especially with the market not being as strong as last year and the center options not exactly being top-notch.  Instead, if they can pick up an unwanted short-term contract or two and pick up draft picks or prospects for doing so, that’s a scenario that would be the best of both worlds, helping them build for the future while helping them now as well.  Cap space is an asset that few teams will have so it’s important that the Blue Jackets use it wisely and get creative if they need to.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Mailbag: Kuznetsov, Sabres, Predators, Maple Leafs, Coaches

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Evgeny Kuznetsov’s future with Washington, Toronto’s recent history of first-round exits, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag.

2012orioles: Do the Capitals look to shop Kuznetsov?

First, GM Brian MacLellan needs to sit down with Kuznetsov’s new agents at Newport to see what the center’s preference is.  It’s no secret that they were listening to offers on him a couple of years ago although nothing came to fruition in terms of a deal.  Since then, the 30-year-old has had one strong season (78 points in 79 games in 2021-22) and one underwhelming campaign (55 points in 81 games this season).

Kuznetsov only has two years left on his deal after this one which actually helps Washington a bit if they do look to move him.  Yes, his price tag of $7.8MM is on the high end, especially if he keeps hovering in the 50-60-point range but a team that’s looking for a short-term stopgap until a prospect is ready for that role could find him more desirable than someone who’s signed long-term, even if that player has a lesser AAV.  I’m not saying they’d get a premium return or anything but I think there would be a decent trade market.

But at the end of the day, the answer to this question is likely dictated by MacLellan’s intentions for next season.  If they’re rebuilding, he probably goes.  If they’re looking for a quick retool and to get back in the playoff picture next season, I think Kuznetsov stays, barring a public trade request that might force their hand.  With Nicklas Backstrom no longer the player he once was and their young middlemen (Connor McMichael and Hendrix Lapierre) not ready for tough NHL minutes yet, they need Kuznetsov if they’re aiming for a Wild Card spot or better next season.

joebad34: Do the Sabres move on from Okposo and Girgensons? What defenseman would they potentially look to pursue in a trade or free agency to fill a top-four spot? Is Dumba a fit?

Let’s start with the forwards.  If Kyle Okposo wants to come back, I think Buffalo will have a spot for him.  It might not be particularly high on the depth chart but I suspect they’d like to keep their captain in the fold as this is still a pretty young roster overall.  This is a group that will have playoff aspirations next season so having a veteran that has the respect of the team wouldn’t hurt.  Plus, Okposo can still be effective in a limited role.

I don’t expect Zemgus Girgensons to be back though.  If they want to make a push for a postseason spot, they’ll need to upgrade their roster this summer and that’s one roster spot they can upgrade on.  Girgensons is a capable fourth-line pivot but after nine years with Buffalo, a change of scenery wouldn’t hurt.

As for the defensemen, Mathew Dumba is a logical target on the free agent market.  He’s capable of logging big minutes and plays on the right side which is where their depth is a bit weak.  I also think there’s a bit of an upside play in signing him if he can get back to his old form.  The one question I have though is how much does Buffalo want to spend long-term on the back end?  Rasmus Dahlin is going to be very expensive in 2024-25 as will Owen Power.  Mattias Samuelsson is already on a long-term deal.  You’re probably looking at well over $20MM for those three at that time; can they afford another bigger-ticket deal in their salary structure and if they can, do they want to?

As for other free agent targets, Damon Severson is also in Dumba’s tier but the same questions exist.  If they want to go for a shorter-term pickup, Kevin Shattenkirk and John Klingberg are veteran right-shot players that could give them an offensive boost, take a regular shift, and balance out the lineup without being a long-term commitment on the books.  If they’re shopping in the short-term tier, Anthony DeAngelo could be a trade target and if Nashville sticks with the rebuild, Tyson Barrie should be available as well.  They’re both on expiring deals which might be appealing.

Gbear: Does new Preds GM Barry Trotz keep John Hynes behind the bench or move on from him?

Jakeattack: Do you think Trotz will try to move either Ryan Johansen or Matt Duchene this summer?

Let’s combine the Nashville queries.  Two months ago, I would have leaned toward a coaching change.  The fire sale was on and if a new era was beginning, why not do so with a new coach?  But then the Predators had quite a run down the stretch with the team coming to life.  If Trotz thinks there’s any chance of that being sustainable, it’d be hard to move on from Hynes.

He has one year left on his deal which gives Trotz an easy option to kick the can down the road.  Let him start on an expiring contract and if things go sideways early on, make an in-season change for an interim option and at that point, it’s probably heading toward a rebuild.  If things go well, let the season play out and re-assess 12 months from now.  I think he stays but I will say this, I am not doing well at predicting what happens in Nashville this season and if recent history repeats itself, this prediction might not hold up for long.

Unlike that coaching prediction, I’m actually confident in this next one.  Yes, Trotz will try to move those two, Johansen especially.  At $8MM apiece for at least two more years (Johansen is signed through 2024-25, Duchene 2025-26), they’re not getting a great return on those deals.  Neither has emerged as a capable top center and while Duchene’s a capable number two, that’s a big price tag for someone in that role.  That money could likely be more efficiently spent elsewhere.

Of course, 31 other teams around the league know that.  The time to move Duchene was probably a year ago when he had 43 goals and 86 points.  His performance this season only dipped his value.  Johansen, meanwhile, is coming off a 28-point campaign, albeit one that saw him miss 27 games due to injuries.  Unless they’re swapping a bad contract for another bad contract (and in a market where so many teams are capped out, that can’t entirely be ruled out), I don’t expect there to be any interest in him.  Trotz I’m sure will try to move these contracts but it’ll be much easier said than done.

W H Twittle: Is there a rational explanation for the Leafs’ playoff successes?

Assuming you mean their lack of playoff success, I think there is.  In those series, they lost the goaltending battle.  In 2017, it was Braden Holtby allowing two goals or fewer in three games, all Toronto losses.  In 2018, Tuukka Rask wasn’t great in that series but he outplayed Frederik Andersen.  The next year, Rask was much better.

In the bubble, Columbus’ goalies picked two shutouts in five games.  A year later, Carey Price did just enough to outduel Jack Campbell to kickstart Montreal’s improbable run to the Final.  And last season, Andrei Vasilevskiy was between the pipes.  All in all, three future Hall of Famers, another goalie who led his team to the Stanley Cup, and Columbus’ netminders shining.

One can discuss the coaching and the underachieving stars and that’s fine.  But if you’re looking for a quick, simple, rational explanation, Toronto got ‘goalied’ in several of their recent quick playoff exits.

Gmm8811: Who do you see as up-and-coming AHL coaches? Have you heard of any recent former players that want to make the jump to coaching?

If you’re asking about up-and-coming AHL coaches that could soon make the jump to the NHL, Mitch Love (Calgary) should be the first to come to mind.  He just won Coach of the Year there for the second season in a row and had a good run with WHL Saskatoon before that.  Just 38, he’s the type of young coach that someone should take a chance on.  I’d also put Marco Sturm in that mix.  He’s the coach of the Kings’ affiliate in Ontario.  With his experience there plus internationally as a coach, I think he’ll get a chance at some point.

As for recent former players, those that want to coach somewhere typically are able to do so, either at the junior or minor league level.  Accordingly, I don’t really have a list of former players that are looking to join those ranks; if they want to, they’re probably already there.  I’ll give you one name to keep an eye on though in Marc Savard, head coach with OHL Windsor.  While they were a surprisingly quick exit in the playoffs this year, that franchise has done pretty well in his limited time there and it wouldn’t surprise me if someone offers him an AHL head coaching job or an assistant spot on an NHL bench for next season.

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Offseason Checklist: Anaheim Ducks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  First up is a look at Anaheim.

After a 2021-22 campaign where things didn’t go well, there was hope that the Ducks would take a step forward with their young core continuing to improve.  While some of those players did show improvement, it didn’t lead to much success on the ice with some changes already happening.  Here’s a look at what’s on the horizon for Anaheim this summer beyond what’s expected to be an exciting draft lottery for them next month with the top odds in the proceedings.

Hire New Coaches

It didn’t take long after the regular season for the Ducks to part ways with Dallas Eakins, a move that many anticipated with the way the year went and the fact his contract came to an end.  Anaheim allowed 4.09 goals per game this season, the highest goals-allowed average since the mid-90s which played a big role in them finishing last.  That dropped Eakins’ record with Anaheim to 100-147-44 over four seasons which helped lead to the coaching change.

As is typically the case in a situation like this, GM Pat Verbeek is faced with two options.  The first is to look for a first-time coach with an eye on being more development-focused to take the team through the rest of their rebuild and perhaps beyond.  The other is looking for more of a win-now option to try to coax shorter-term success.  That type of hire would need to coincide with the team becoming bigger spenders in free agency this summer which doesn’t seem likely.  A first-time or relatively inexperienced bench boss seems like the probable outcome here.

Meanwhile, an NHL head coach isn’t the only vacancy they’ll be looking to fill as for the second straight season, Verbeek will be searching for an AHL bench boss while it’s the third time in a row the franchise has been seeking one.  A year ago, he fired Joel Bouchard who had been on the job for just a single season while Roy Sommer opted to retire after one season with the team.  They’ll certainly be hoping that the third time will be the charm on that front.

Sign Key RFAs

Anaheim finished this season near the bottom in spending among all NHL teams.  That probably won’t be the case in 2023-24 as they have three key restricted free agents to deal with this summer in winger Troy Terry, center Trevor Zegras, and defenseman Jamie Drysdale.

Terry is an example of a bridge contract going as well as possible.  Three years ago, he had a total of 81 games under his belt with all of 28 points.  Now, he has established himself over the last two seasons as a reliable key scorer, reaching the 60-point mark in each of them, giving him a much better platform to his first year of arbitration eligibility.  There aren’t a lot of comparables for players that were role players for a few seasons before emerging as top-line threats but it wouldn’t be surprising to see Terry’s next deal wind up above the $7MM mark on a long-term agreement that buys out several UFA seasons.  He won’t be on a heavily team-friendly contract anymore.

As for Zegras, he has positioned himself to try to bypass the bridge deal altogether.  While he has had plenty of highlight-worthy plays, he isn’t just good at those as he has also emerged as a legitimate top-six center.  Zegras has surpassed the 60-point mark in back-to-back years as well while playing the more premium position down the middle.  We’ve seen post-ELC centers around his point total signing around the $8MM mark over the last couple of years so it stands to reason that a long-term deal for Zegras should be near that point as well.  Notably, he still has five RFA years remaining; most players coming off their entry-level agreements typically have four years left.

While Zegras should avoid a bridge agreement, the same can’t be said about Drysdale.  Injuries limited the 21-year-old to just eight games this season and his rookie campaign saw him suit up just 24 times.  Accordingly, he doesn’t even have a year and a half of NHL contests under his belt which would make a long-term agreement that much more difficult.  Drysdale figures to be a key cog in Anaheim’s future plans but more time is needed to see how he’s going to develop.  A short-term second agreement makes sense all around and he, too, has five RFA years remaining.

Qualify Or Cut

A couple of years ago, it looked like winger Max Comtois was going to be a big part of Anaheim’s future.  He was coming off a 33-point season in 55 games, showing signs of becoming a capable power forward along the way.  Even so, then-GM Bob Murray opted for caution, giving him a two-year bridge deal.

It’s safe to say that decision worked out for Anaheim as the 24-year-old has struggled considerably since then.  This season, Comtois potted just nine goals and ten assists in 64 games with his playing time dipping to a career low while also spending time as a healthy scratch.

Accordingly, at a time when he was supposed to be cementing his case for a long-term agreement, his performance has called into question his future with the team.  Comtois is owed a qualifying offer of $2.45MM this summer.  Two years ago, it would have seemed unthinkable that the Ducks might want to consider not tendering it but now, it’s something Verbeek will have to consider.

It was previously reported that Comtois was available at the trade deadline with there not being much interest at the time so on the surface, a non-tender might make sense.  But is it worth giving him one last look with the hopes that a new coach can help him return to the form of 2021-22 and avoid the potential of him taking that step in another uniform?  They have a couple of months to make that choice.

Goalie Decision

The future of John Gibson has been in question for the last few seasons.  Here’s a player who was signed to be Anaheim’s long-term franchise goaltender but since that deal kicked in, things just haven’t gone very well for him and while playing for a rebuilding franchise doesn’t help, Gibson has certainly struggled as well.

Over the four years that he has played on this deal, Gibson has a 3.32 GAA and a SV% of .902.  He also has led the league in losses in three of those four seasons.  Suffice it to say, he hasn’t provided a great return on his $6.4MM AAV.  On top of that, the 29-year-old has four years left on that agreement.

Generally speaking, an underachieving player with four years left on his deal wouldn’t have much value on the trade market but are there teams convinced that in a different system and working with a different goalie coach, they can turn him around?  It’s possible, especially in a year when the free agent market isn’t exactly booming with plentiful high-end options.

If that’s the case, is the time right for Verbeek and the Ducks to explore a move?  Would Gibson himself be open to a move?  With the way things are currently trending, it’s definitely a possibility.  His value likely isn’t super high with his recent struggles and the remaining term on his contract but if a decent swap presents itself, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them make a move.

If that happens, Anaheim will have to look to add a veteran replacement, either as part of the trade or in a separate acquisition or signing.  Lukas Dostal is viewed as their goalie of the future but has just 23 NHL appearances under his belt.  Gibson was supposed to be his playing partner for a while to allow Dostal to get acclimated to being a full-time NHL player and if he’s no longer going to be part of the equation, they’ll need another veteran to fill that role, even in a summer where Verbeek will be looking to add young core pieces.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

PHR Playoff Primer: Colorado Avalanche vs. Seattle Kraken

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We wrap up our First Round coverage with the Central Division matchup between the Colorado Avalanche and Seattle Kraken.

Some in NHL circles had optimistic expectations for the initial Seattle Kraken roster after their expansion draft and free agency period. While there were notable names general manager Ron Francis opted not to add to his lineup, the team he constructed was analytically sound and, if their transition game held up, could be competitive in a weak Western Conference.

Needless to say, it didn’t turn out that way. A finish near the bottom of the league gave Seattle two high-end center prospects in their first two drafts, with one of them the frontrunner for this year’s Calder Trophy. Slightly improved goaltending and high-end depth scoring have positioned the Kraken as the most-improved expansion team from year 1 to 2 in NHL history, but their first foray into the postseason won’t be easy.

Despite finishing with 100 points, Seattle failed to clinch a divisional playoff spot thanks to other divisional rivals going on massive winning streaks at the right time. Unfortunately, that means they face off against the Colorado Avalanche, who finished third in the conference despite significant injuries and, if you happened to forget, are the defending Stanley Cup champions.

Regular Season Performance

Colorado: 51-24-7, 109 points, +54 goal differential
Seattle: 46-28-8, 100 points, +33 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 21, 2022: Seattle 3, Colorado 2
January 21, 2023: Colorado 2, Seattle 1 (SO)
March 5, 2023: Seattle 3, Colorado 2 (OT)

Seattle takes the season series 2-0-1

Team Storylines

Seattle will need all hands on deck if they’re to win their first-ever playoff series against Colorado. The Avalanche are as healthy as they’re going to get to start the postseason, and they finished the regular season on an 8-1-1 tear.

That means a lot of pressure on rookie Matthew Beniers, the presumptive Calder Trophy winner who centers the team’s top line between Jared McCann and Jordan Eberle. He finished fourth on the team in scoring with 57 points in 80 games, but it’s his strong two-way game that grabbed the attention of most this season, especially for such a young player.

It begs the question — will Beniers see matchups against Nathan MacKinnon? If so, can his promising defensive analytics yield success for the Kraken in helping to slow down one of the best playoff performers in recent memory? Few would be surprised to see coach Dave Hakstol utilize a more experienced option at center against MacKinnon, such as Alexander Wennberg or Yanni Gourde, but Beniers’ all-around play in the regular season has earned him a chance at heavy usage in the playoffs.

The larger factor that could lead to a Kraken upset, though, is their well-balanced attack. Seattle had six 20-goal scorers this season, including bottom-six talents Oliver Bjorkstrand and Daniel Sprong. While goals from your bottom six are generally a key to success in the playoffs, some numbers suggest the Kraken have scored more goals than they’ve earned. The Kraken scored 32.6 goals above expected at even-strength this season, per MoneyPuck, leading the league by a wide margin. If their elite finishing runs dry, it could be a quick exit for Seattle.

In net for Seattle will be Philipp Grubauer, who had some decent playoff outings in past years while a member of the Avalanche. He’s seemed to regain some of his former touch after an incredibly disappointing first year with the Kraken, posting a 14-7-3 record and .902 save percentage in 26 games since the calendar turned to 2023.

For Seattle to pull off the upset, he’ll need to match his Colorado counterpart. Alexandar Georgiev has quietly given the Avalanche high-end goaltending in his first season with the team. The 27-year-old silenced all doubts by starting 62 games, leading the league with 40 wins, and stopping 21.9 goals above expected (MoneyPuck). He’ll be making his first career playoff start tonight, though, only appearing in two games in relief during last year’s playoff run with the New York Rangers.

Colorado’s secondary objective in this series, other than continuing their championship defense, will be to escape without another significant injury. They’ll be without captain Gabriel Landeskog for the entire postseason, and all of their right-side defenders (Cale Makar, Bowen Byram, and Josh Manson) have missed significant periods of time.

Staying healthy allows Colorado to match Seattle at their strength — scoring from the middle six. Colorado’s top talent obviously overtakes that of Seattle, and while only Artturi Lehkonen registered 20 goals this year outside of MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen, a healthy group of depth forwards can still score enough to give Colorado a series win.

Prediction

There’s no question the Kraken will come out excited, especially given their opponent. But hoping for some expansion team magic in the style of the Vegas Golden Knights’ first playoff appearance may be a little misguided.

Questions about consistency in goal still plague the Kraken, and, if Georgiev maintains his regular season performance, are enough to be the difference in this series alone. Colorado’s healthy top four on defense still remains the best in the West and are a viable antidote to Seattle’s consistent offense.

The prediction: Colorado wins in five games.

PHR Playoff Primer: Vegas Golden Knights vs Winnipeg Jets

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs upon us, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the matchup between the Vegas Golden Knights and Winnipeg Jets.

The #1 vs #8 seed in the Western Conference is not going to be a walk in the park for the top-seeded Vegas Golden Knights. They were able to hold off the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche for the top spot in the Western Conference, and while that gives them home-ice advantage throughout the first three rounds, it does not give them an easy matchup in any of those potential series.

The Winnipeg Jets were able to hold off the Calgary Flames and Nashville Predators for the final playoff spot in the west. A 7-3-0 run just before their final game of the season was enough to clinch that spot. Vegas was even hotter down the stretch, finishing 9-1-3 in their final 13 games.

Who can keep the hot streak alive for two more weeks and emerge victorious in a much tighter #1 vs #8 series than we are used to seeing in the opening round?

Regular Season Performance

Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Winnipeg: 46-33-3, 95 points, +22 goal differential

Head-To-Head

October 20, 2022: Vegas 5, Winnipeg 2

October 30, 2022: Vegas 2, Winnipeg 1 (OT)

December 13, 2022: Vegas 6, Winnipeg 5

Vegas takes the season series 3-0

Team Storylines

Which Winnipeg Jets team shows up? We have seen a few different versions of the Winnipeg Jets this season. The first version was terrific, as the Jets were the best team in the Western Conference for the first half of the season. They started the year with a 29-14-1 record which put them fourth in the NHL on January 16 but leading the west. A couple of tough road trips to the east followed and a bit of a free-fall began in Winnipeg.

Between January 16 and March 20 the Jets went 10-15-2 to fall to the edges of the playoff race. Instead of talking about the top seed or even home-ice advantage, they were just scrambling to try and get in at all. Then they got hot again and finished the season 7-4-0 to get into the playoffs as the final wildcard seed.

So which Jets team do we see in the next two weeks? The best team in the west like we saw for more than three months to begin the season? The struggling team that showed up for about two months late in the year or the back-against-the-wall squad that was able to grind out wins in the final couple weeks?

Will Mark Stone return to make a difference? While the Jets were the top team in the west at some points, the Golden Knights were right behind them. The difference was the Golden Knights were able to remain consistent throughout the season, even while dealing with some huge injuries. One of the biggest injuries they suffered was to Mark Stone, a fantastic two-way winger who is capable of scoring at a point-per-game pace and is better defensively than offensively. He has been out of the Vegas lineup for the second half of the season and the team began the year 28-13-2 with Stone in the lineup. He was cleared for contact recently and could be back as soon as Game 1. If so, the team that finished the season at the top of the Western Conference just got a whole lot better.

Can Connor Hellebuyck continue late-season heroics? Hellebuyck’s season kind of mirrored the Jets season. He was fantastic for the first three months of the season, but then slipped a bit and did not have great numbers in January, February or March. However, he was able to recapture his magic late in the season and helped the Jets clinch a playoff spot with some spectacular play in their final handful of games. In his last ten games he had a 1.80 GAA and a .936 SV% to propel the Jets into the playoffs. If he can keep up that terrific play, the Jets will be in great shape.

Can the Knights find a reliable starting goalie? While the Jets have one of the NHL’s most reliable, and busiest goaltenders, the Knights had a hard time finding a consistent goaltender most of the season. Adin Hill and Logan Thompson played the most games for the Golden Knights this season in goal, and were steady as they each posted a .915 SV%. However, Hill was hurt over a month ago and has not played a game since March 7. Thompson has also dealt with injuries and has only played one game since February 9.

The Kings acquired veteran Jonathan Quick at the trade deadline but he doesn’t appear to have the same Stanley Cup winning magic he had a decade ago. Quick played ten games with the Golden Knights, posting a 3.13 GAA and a .901 SV% in that time.

It appears their starter could be Laurent Brossoit, who recently served as Hellebuyck’s rarely used backup for three seasons. Brossoit played most of this season in the AHL with the Henderson Silver Knights before being called up due to Hill and Thompson being injured. He played great down the stretch, winning his five April starts while posting a 1.59 GAA and a .946 SV%. Can he continue that hot streak into the postseason? Can he stare down his former teammate in the opposite goal and match him save for save? If so, the Golden Knights have a terrific chance of advancing.

How does Jack Eichel perform in first ever playoff series? Golden Knights leading scorer Jack Eichel is 26 years old and has had a great career so far, but he will suit up for his first ever playoff game when this series begins. He has scored 446 points in 476 career regular season games, but the playoffs are a different entity.

Whose depth proves to be greater? While Eichel was the team’s leading scorer, he only had 66 points. He did also only play 67 games so it was a great season for him, but there are no Art Ross Trophy candidates on this roster. That doesn’t mean they can’t score, as they have plenty of depth with Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith, Alex Pietrangelo and William Karlsson all scoring more than 50 points and Mark Stone certainly would have if healthy.

The Jets roster is built similarly. Kyle Connor had nearly a point-per-game season with 80 points in 82 games and Josh Morrissey, Mark Scheifele, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers, Nino Niederreiter and Cole Perfetti can all contribute plenty of offense.

It will be a difficult task for both teams defensive pairs to shut down all three of the opposing team’s top lines and should lead to some depth players stepping up to play big roles in this series since neither team is leaning on just a couple of players to provide scoring. Both teams are set up for balanced scoring and it will be interesting to see if anyone can step up and score over a point per game in the series to give their team the edge.

Prediction

The prediction: On paper, the Jets look just as good as the Golden Knights, and they were at times, but they found ways to be inconsistent throughout the season. The Knights on the other hand were able to continue their winning ways even with key players out of the lineup for long stretches. The Golden Knights will outlast the Jets in a long, hard-fought series and win in seven games.

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