The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated quickly. It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months. Next up is a look at Chicago.
The fact that the Blackhawks struggled this season should have come as no surprise. They unloaded several key players last summer and continued that at the trade deadline before announcing they won’t be trying to re-sign Jonathan Toews for next year and beyond. GM Kyle Davidson has largely a blank canvas to work with but with the team still firmly committed to the rebuild, the to-do list isn’t the biggest beyond adding more future assets. Even so, there are some decisions that will need to be made in the coming months.
Decide Athanasiou’s Fate
When Chicago signed Max Domi and Andreas Athanasiou to one-year, $3MM deals mere minutes into free agency back in July, they both seemed like strong candidates to be moved elsewhere at the deadline. While that was the case with Domi, that didn’t happen with Athanasiou. Instead, he stayed with them and did well down the stretch while sometimes playing alongside one of their top prospects in Lukas Reichel.
Accordingly, would it be worth it for the Blackhawks to look into extending the 28-year-old on a short-term deal? They’re not going to be able to ice a lineup of strictly youngsters as there is a cap floor to be met (more on that later) and if Athanasiou is comfortable with the situation in Chicago, perhaps he’s someone worth keeping around.
However, with 20 goals and 20 assists, Athanasiou has likely built up enough value to command at least a two-year deal somewhere this time around. With that in mind, giving Athanasiou another contract might take him off the table for being traded, at least in the short term, especially if they have to give him a bit above market value to convince him to avoid going to a team that is more interested in short-term success.
Assess Murphy’s Market
The list of proven veterans that the Blackhawks have moved out over the last year is quite impressive to the point where it’s fair to wonder if they have anyone left that could realistically be traded. Seth Jones and his $9.5MM contract likely won’t be in play due to his contract. However, another veteran blueliner could realistically find himself in trade talks, Connor Murphy.
The 30-year-old signed his current contract just over a year and a half ago with the hopes that Chicago would be looking to push for short-term success. Clearly, that’s not the plan now. Murphy has three years left on that deal with a $4.4MM cap hit, a reasonable price for someone that typically logs around 20 minutes a game, kills penalties, and plays a steady, defensive role. Frankly, there’s a role for him on the Blackhawks to work with some of their younger blueliners but in a defensive market that isn’t the deepest in terms of free agent or trade options, Chicago should be looking into what they can get for him, especially with right-shot players being in high demand.
Back at the trade deadline, Chicago picked up a first-round pick for Jake McCabe, a blueliner who carries a similar cap hit as Murphy with term left on his deal. It took them eating half the contract but considering they don’t have many tradable assets with high price tags at the moment, it could be defensible for them to consider doing so here as well, especially if it helps them land another quality draft pick. One option available to Chicago now that might not be during the season is the ability to take back a pricey contract which could also help defray the cost of Murphy’s deal if the Blackhawks don’t want to retain any money.
It’s not a foregone conclusion that they have to move Murphy this summer, assuming they can overcome his 10-team no-trade protection. Perhaps the smarter play is to wait until the trade deadline and try to do a McCabe-like deal again. At a minimum, Davidson needs to see what trade options are out there for the veteran defender over the next couple of months.
Goaltending Decisions
On the surface, it seems like Chicago’s goaltending situation is sorted out. Petr Mrazek, by virtue of his contract, will be one of the netminders with one of Arvid Soderblom or Jaxson Stauber serving as the backup. But with how much Mrazek struggled this season, not to mention how things went for him in Toronto, should he really be guaranteed a roster spot for 2023-24?
Alex Stalock was one of the feel-good stories around the NHL this season, recovering from myocarditis that limited him severely the last two seasons to post a .908 SV%, an above-average rate on a team that wasn’t exactly a model of defensive play. He’s an unrestricted free agent this summer and with the need to get at least one of their youngsters some NHL action, it’s understandable to think he won’t be back. But if Mrazek isn’t in the picture anymore, would that change things?
Chicago knows they can easily bury Mrazek’s deal in the minors as his struggles will deter any team from picking him up off waivers. But with the other of Soderblom and Stauber in the picture plus prospect Drew Commesso, would they want Mrazek with Rockford taking away playing time? Accordingly, it wouldn’t be shocking to see them consider buying him out, a move that would free up about $3MM in cap space next season while adding just under $1.5MM in 2024-25, a price tag that should be of no concern to them given their cap situation.
Are they better off parting ways with Mrazek this summer to try to keep Stalock around or to sign a different veteran netminder that can handle some starts altogether? It’s a choice they’ll want to make by the late-June buyout deadline.
Spend, Spend, Spend
At the moment, the Blackhawks have over $40MM in cap space for next season, per CapFriendly, assuming that the cap goes up by $1MM as planned. And that space would only go up with a Mrazek buyout. Now, you might be thinking to yourself that Chicago won’t be a cap team and you’re probably right. But there is a Lower Limit to the cap that everyone has to get to. They are presently around $20MM below what that mark is likely to be next season.
Yes, they have a few roster spots to fill with that money and if they re-sign Athanasiou, that will take up a chunk of it. But even with that, they have a long way to go and filling those spots with low-cost prospects isn’t going to get them close to the minimum spending. While they’re clearly a team that isn’t gearing up for a playoff run anytime soon, they’re effectively going to be buyers to an extent.
Davidson has two possible avenues to work with here. He can do like he did with Domi and Athanasiou last summer, signing them to ‘sign and flip’ deals that will see them moved at or around the trade deadline for futures. Alternatively, with so many teams expected to be tight to the Upper Limit, Chicago is well-positioned to take on an unwanted contract or two (or more) while adding draft picks and prospects for doing so. While we know they’ll be sellers next February, expect the Blackhawks to be adding some veterans to their roster in the coming months to help get them cap-compliant while setting themselves up to add future assets as well.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.