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PHR Playoff Primer: Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers

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With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We begin our Conference Finals coverage with the Eastern Conference matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Florida Panthers.

The Southeast Division reigns supreme, just as we all thought.

After more than 25 years, these former divisional rivals will square up in their first-ever playoff matchup against each other, with higher stakes than anyone expected. Both teams are knocking on the door of their first Stanley Cup Final appearance in decades after building up to this moment for years.

Both teams have also overcome some long odds to get here but under different circumstances. Some had written off the Hurricanes entering their Second Round series against the New Jersey Devils, with injuries to three of their best scorers hampering their chances against a Devils team that had overcome a 2-0 series deficit against Igor Shesterkin and the New York Rangers.

Needless to say, it didn’t matter. The Hurricanes advanced thanks to a Game 5 overtime winner from Jesper Fast, a testament to the depth that’s stepped up and gotten them this far.

The Panthers, on the other hand, finished 17th in the NHL during the regular season and rattled off seven-game and five-game series wins against two of the best teams in the league. It’s thanks largely in part to netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, who’s overcome playoff demons past and is, out of nowhere, earning his keep as a $10MM goalie.

Can Florida’s Cinderella run continue and get them back to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in franchise history?

Regular Season Performance

Carolina: 52-21-9, 113 points, +53 goal differential
Florida: 42-32-8, 92 points, +17 goal differential

Head-To-Head

November 9, 2022: Carolina 0, Florida 3
December 30, 2022: Florida 0, Carolina 4
April 13, 2023: Carolina 6, Florida 4

Carolina takes season series 2-1-0

Team Storylines

The question for Carolina is simple: can their depth, namely Fast, Jordan Martinook, and Stefan Noesen, keep showing up?

Their job should be made easier, as Teuvo Teräväinen is expected to return to the team after missing most of the playoffs with a broken hand. But Martinook’s 10 points in 11 games and Fast’s eight points in 11 games are near the team lead and ahead of other expected leading scorers like Martin Necas.

That’ll be their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final against a Florida team loaded with more consistently potent names, like Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, and Carter Verhaeghe, in their top six. It’ll also be tough to contend with the fact that Florida’s three leading goal-scorers among forwards in the playoffs (Verhaeghe, Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart) are spread out on three different lines.

Both teams are set in the crease. Both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta have played very well for Carolina, but Andersen’s pulled ahead with a 5-0 record and .931 save percentage after Raanta exited the lineup due to illness. Bobrovsky may have surpassed Tkachuk in Panthers Conn Smythe candidates after his performance against the Toronto Maple Leafs, limiting the Toronto attack to two goals in each game.

There are plenty of personnel storylines to go around in this series as well. Not only will it feature all three active Staal brothers in the NHL, but it also features a showdown between Carolina’s Cup-winning captain Rod Brind’Amour and former teammate Eric Staal, who now attempts to upset his former coach and help boost Florida into the Final.

Prediction

Carolina is the more experienced and better-coached team in this series. They’ve overcome multiple question marks after another triple-digit point total in the regular season to get where they are now.

They’ve had plenty of tough lessons to learn from past mistakes, but so have the Panthers after a handful of recent early eliminations. They’re also both even in most matchup categories and boast similarly aggressive styles of play.

It makes this series one of the hardest to predict of the entire postseason. Both teams have knocked off 110+ point opponents with relative ease. Where Carolina pulls away is behind the bench, however, and it could be the deciding factor in what should be a lengthy series.

Prediction: Hurricanes win in seven games.

Offseason Checklist: Vancouver Canucks

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Vancouver.

After the team showed considerable improvement late in 2021-22 under Bruce Boudreau, there was hope that the Canucks could get back into the playoff picture.  Instead, things went off the rails quickly with a long-speculated coaching change dominating the headlines for an uncomfortable amount of time.  While there was improvement following the change that saw Rick Tocchet take over, they still came up short.  GM Patrik Allvin has his work cut out for him this summer if he wants to get Vancouver back into the playoff picture.

Create Cap Space

If Allvin and the Canucks are going to be able to do anything in terms of improving this franchise this summer, they need money to do so.  At the moment, they are projected to be over the cap next season, per CapFriendly, with multiple players still to re-sign.  That’s not ideal, to put it lightly.

There could be some help through LTIR.  Tanner Pearson’s playing future appears to be in serious question after recovery from his hand injury hasn’t gone anywhere near as well as planned.  If he misses all of next season, his $3.25MM would then land on LTIR.  Then there’s Tucker Poolman, who has dealt with lingering concussion trouble for the last couple of seasons and got into just three games this year.  If those symptoms persist, his $2.5MM could land on there as well.  Those two placements would at least give them enough cap space to fill out a full roster but still not make any material improvements.

Winger Brock Boeser has been in trade speculation for more than a year now and even though he has stated that his desire is to remain in Vancouver, that’s unlikely to change with a $6.65MM AAV for two more years.  Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli recently reported (video link) that the team is actively trying to move Conor Garland who carries a $4.95MM cap charge for three more seasons.  While he’s a quality forward, the remaining term on that deal will hurt his value.  Moving one of them would clear up some money plus a full-time spot for Nils Hoglander but Vancouver will be hard-pressed to get strong value in a return with how tight many teams are cap-wise.

Defensively, Tyler Myers and his $6MM price tag is one that could be on the chopping block.  Notably, the bulk of his deal is paid out in a signing bonus during training camp and it stands to reason that he’d have more value then than he would today.  Of course, that doesn’t help in terms of creating space for early-summer spending but it’s another avenue they could potentially pursue.

There are holes on this roster to be filled.  But to fill them, they need cap space.  To get that money, they’re going to have to move out a player of some significance, thereby creating another hole to fill.  That’s going to be a tough needle to thread.

Work On Pettersson Extension

While some players underachieved offensively under Boudreau, that wasn’t the case for Elias Pettersson who was off to a strong start before the coaching change, notching 19 goals and 35 assists in 44 games.  There might have been some concern that a coach that was interested in restoring some structure to Vancouver’s game might cut down Pettersson’s numbers.  That didn’t happen.  Instead, he was even more productive in the second half, tallying 20 goals and 28 helpers in 36 games, allowing him to reach the 100-point mark for the first time in his career.  He was one of just 11 players league-wide to accomplish the feat.  In short, he has become a legitimate top-line center.

In 2021, on the heels of an injury-plagued platform year, the two sides eventually agreed on a three-year bridge deal, one that carried a $7.35MM AAV while being heavily backloaded.  The salary structure is notable as the relatively new qualifying offer rule applies to it; he’s owed the lower of 120% of the AAV or $10.25MM, the 2023-24 salary.  120% of the cap charge is $8.82MM and if you’re looking for a starting point for negotiations, there it is.

Realistically, the price tag is going to come in well above that, especially based on recent center signings including Islanders pivot Mathew Barzal who checks in at $9.15MM despite only passing the 65-point mark once in his career.  It’s quite possible that a long-term agreement ultimately eclipses the $10MM mark.

There’s a case to be made that Vancouver should wait until next year to see if Pettersson’s production is repeatable.  However, the salary cap is expected to have a sharper increase in 2024 and with comparables often being based on the percentage of the cap it takes up, that could drive the asking price upward at that point along with his arbitration rights.  But, there’s value in taking care of your franchise players quickly and having early certainty about what he’ll cost moving forward can only help Allvin as he looks to reshape their cap picture.  Accordingly, expect them to take a run at extending Pettersson when he’s eligible to sign a new deal in July.

Look Into Miller Move

The seven-year, $56MM contract extension that J.T. Miller signed back in September was supposed to take his name out of the rumor mill.  However, with the Canucks struggling considerably out of the gate, that wasn’t the case as there was considerable speculation that he could be moved prior to the trade deadline.  While that didn’t happen, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his name come up once again, especially if they fail to find a suitable cap-clearing trade for one of their other pieces.

However, it’s important to note that there is a deadline for this to happen.  Included in the extension is a full no-move clause which kicks in on July 1st.  Vancouver could have allowed that NMC to roll over in his set-to-expire deal but opted not to.  While it’s not impossible to move a player with trade protection, the options are certainly more plentiful when the player doesn’t have any form of trade restrictions.

While Miller wasn’t able to equal his 99-point output from a year ago, the 30-year-old still had a productive campaign, notching 32 goals while picking up 82 points in 81 games.  Add that to a career-best 55% success rate at the faceoff dot and you have a player that is producing at a level worthy of the $8MM AAV.  As a result, expect to see his name surface in trade speculation leading up to the draft as there should be some interest in him, especially with a free agent market that’s lacking in quality middlemen.

Defensive Decisions

Vancouver has a couple of decisions to make with their pending restricted free agent blueliners.  Both Ethan Bear and Travis Dermott are arbitration-eligible this summer with arbitration eligibility.  Both of them have shown flashes at times but neither of them is a guarantee to be tendered.

Let’s start with Bear, a player who has seemingly been on tenuous footing in recent years in Edmonton, Carolina, and now Vancouver.  The Canucks picked him up in an early-season trade and he helped to stabilize an injury-riddled back end.  However, the 25-year-old is best utilized in a limited role and a $2.2MM qualifying offer is on the pricey side for someone in that role, not to mention the granting of arbitration rights that the offer entails.  Given their cap situation, can they afford that offer and the risk of a hearing?  Bear has expressed confidence that he will get something done but it will be interesting to see if he winds up with a deal before the qualifying offer deadline to take the threat of a hearing off the table.

As for Dermott, he showed some upside in the past with Toronto but that hasn’t carried over to his time with Vancouver.  Lingering concussion symptoms resulted in multiple IR stints and he played in just 11 games this season.  Dermott was the first player Allvin acquired after being named GM so it’s clear he thinks Dermott can help this team.  But with a $1.75MM qualifier and arbitration rights, that seems too pricey for them.  That said, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Canucks try to work out a one-year deal worth less than that amount, allowing them to give the 26-year-old one more chance.

Vancouver also has a decision to make on pending UFA blueliner Kyle Burroughs.  The 27-year-old played in a career-best 48 games this season, picking up five points and 165 hits on the third pairing.  He fits in a depth role but it’s possible that his fate is tied to Bear or Dermott’s as they might not be able to keep all of them around.  As a result, Burroughs might have to wait a while to see if he’ll be staying with his hometown team.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Big Hype Prospects: Clarke, Rinzel, Garand, Heineman, Ducks Trio

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Welcome to PHR’s Big Hype Prospects series. Like the MLB Trade Rumors series of the same name, we’re taking a look at the performances of top prospects from across the hockey world. We’ll look at drafted prospects who are rising, others who are struggling, and prospects for the upcoming draft who are notable.

Seven Big Hype Prospects

Graeme Clarke, RW, New Jersey Devils (Utica Comets, AHL)
68 GP 25G 33A 58pts (regular season) 6 GP 2G 4A 6pts (playoffs)

An example of a player whose development was slowed down due to the COVID-19 pandemic, 2019 third-round pick Clarke had a true breakout season this year for the AHL’s Utica Comets.

Spending most of the season as an age-21 player in a league with quite a few grizzled veterans, Clarke became the Comets’ go-to offensive option, and saw his production spike up as a result.

Over the past two campaigns, Clarke totaled 42 points in 83 games, a fine total but perhaps not the dominating number the Devils might have hoped to see.

This season, though, Clarke led Utica in scoring and helped them reach the Calder Cup playoffs, where they swept the Laval Rocket in the best-of-three opening-round series.

His screen on Rocket netminder Cayden Primeau paved the way for Reilly Walsh’s stunning last-second tying goal in the clinching game of that series. While 2020 seventh-overall pick Alexander Holtz was listed higher in the lineup when healthy and available to Utica head coach Kevin Dineen, Clarke was the Comets’ lasting offensive centerpiece.

Despite his dramatic improvements in the AHL, the now-22-year-old Clarke didn’t get a call-up to the NHL, and is still yet to make his NHL debut. Look for that to change next season. While Clarke may not end up the same offensive generator for the Devils as he is in Utica, this season proved how adaptable his offensive approach was to the professional game, where time and space with the puck is limited and scoring chances are harder to come by.

Assuming he’s able to win a job in training camp and continue his upward trajectory, Clarke could provide serious value to the Devils next season at his $850k cap hit. Veteran forwards Erik Haula, Tomas Tatar, and Miles Wood are set to hit free agency in the summer, and significant pay raises for Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier are likely to come. As a result, if Clarke is able to establish himself as an NHLer next season the Devils stand to benefit greatly from his low cap hit.

Sam Rinzel, RHD, Chicago Blackhawks (Waterloo Black Hawks, USHL)
58 GP 9G 27A 36pts (regular season) 3 GP 1G 2A 3pts (playoffs)

As a late June birthdate, it wasn’t a surprise to see Rinzel, a 2021 first-round pick, spend another year in the USHL, even if it is relatively uncommon for players drafted that high to do so. Blackhawks fans could not be blamed for hoping to see the toolsy Rinzel dominate that level of competition before heading to the University of Minnesota this coming fall.

They’d have to be at least slightly disappointed, though, as Rinzel’s performance this season in the USHL, while totally acceptable, could not be characterized in any way as dominant. The rangy six-foot-four blueliner was tied for second on his team in scoring with 36 points in 58 games, behind Ben Robertson, who is ranked 193rd among North American skaters by NHL Central Scouting for this summer’s NHL draft, and tied with undrafted overager Aaron Pionk.

Rinzel being drafted so high was never about his production, of course, it was all about the tantalizing tools the defenseman offers. Those tools are still present in his game, and the “wow” factor that the Blackhawks were so enamored with is often evident in his play. But at a certain point, one would hope that Rinzel’s tools would translate into more dominant play, that the frequent flashes of greatness would materialize into something more tangible, such as outstanding production.

As one of the more divisive first-round picks of last year’s draft (Rinzel was ranked as high as 28th, by McKeen’s hockey, and as low as 62nd, by FCHockey) the hope would be that Rinzel would use his first season as a Blackhawks prospect to silence all his doubters and place himself on extremely strong footing heading into his debut season of college hockey. That didn’t exactly happen, but he nonetheless reminded observers of the elite potential he possesses.

It’ll likely be an extended development process with Rinzel, which is fine given the extended rebuild the Blackhawks have embarked on. If nothing else, Rinzel will be among the first-year players to watch in college hockey next season.

Dylan Garand, G, New York Rangers (Hartford Wolf Pack, AHL)
32 GP 13-14-3 .894 SV% 3.01 GAA (regular season) 8 GP 5-3 .935 SV% 1.76 GAA (playoffs)

Something that can go a bit under-appreciated in the areas of prospect development is just how difficult the transition between being a goaltender at the junior hockey level and the professional level can be. Some netminders make it look easy, of course, such as Calgary Flames prospect Dustin Wolf, who has torn the AHL apart across two seasons and recently was named the league’s MVP.

Others can face significant struggles often seeing the stardom they experienced at earlier levels dissipate quickly, as Flames prospect Tyler Parsons did years ago, going from the top save percentage in the OHL in 2016-17 to a career .888 save percentage in the AHL.

At many times during his rookie season in the AHL, it looked as though Garand, the Rangers’ top goalie prospect, was going to be among the strugglers. Last season’s CHL Goalie of the Year posted a grisly .894 save percentage this season, a good measure below organizational number-three netminder Louis Domingue, a veteran who cruised to a .911 save percentage despite Hartford enduring an up-and-down regular season.

There were games where he simply looked overmatched by the heightened level of competition the AHL presents and the speed of the game when it gets played entirely by grown professionals. But at times he did shine, such as in his final three regular-season starts, when he saved a combined 89 out of 94 shots. It’s Garand’s playoff performance, though, that has truly injected some life into an otherwise disappointing rookie AHL season.

Garand let in just two goals on 45 shots in Hartford’s opening-round sweep against last season’s Eastern Conference champions, the Springfield Thunderbirds, and then he and the Wolf Pack stunned the East’s top-seeded Providence Bruins with a Game One shutout and a 29-saves-on-3o-shots performance in Game Two. Garand’s 32-save shutout in Game Four eliminated Providence, and while Hartford has taken a step back as a whole against the Hershey Bears and are now on the brink of elimination, Garand’s play has undoubtedly been a bright spot.

The Rangers are, of course, set in goal moving forward with last season’s Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin still just 27 years old arguably the team’s best player. But if Garand, who turns 21 next month, can continue his playoff performance into next year’s regular season, he could quickly push himself into the NHL conversation. If that ends up being the case, it’s possible that New York could have another talented number-two netminder on their hands.

The Rangers have a more extensive recent history of exporting their backup netminders across the league than other franchises, with names such as Cam Talbot, Antti Raanta, and Alexandar Georgiev moving on to starting roles with other teams after their Rangers tenures. If his performance in the CHL and recently the Calder Cup playoffs is any indication, Garand could very well end up the next name on that list by the time he reaches a similar age.

Emil Heineman, LW, Montreal Canadiens (Laval Rocket, AHL and Leksands IF, SHL)
11 GP 7G 2A 9pts (regular season, AHL) 2 GP 0G 0pts (playoffs, AHL) 35 GP 8G 7A 15pts (regular season, SHL)

Just looking at Heineman’s box score numbers from his three seasons as a regular with Leksands IF in the SHL, it would look as though Heineman has plateaued in his development. After all, he scored 13 points in 2020-21 and 15 in 2022-23, with slightly improved points-per-game marks each season. Combined with the fact that Heineman has already been traded twice since being selected in the second round of the 2020 draft, it might look like Heineman’s stock is in a bit of a shaky place.

In the eleven regular-season games he played for the Laval Rocket after coming over from Sweden, Heineman proved he was more than just a throw-in name from two relatively high-profile trades. While he slowed down a little bit in his final games including the playoffs, Heineman scored an impressive seven goals and two assists in his first eight games in the AHL.

His contributions came at a time when Laval desperately needed a boost to get into the Calder Cup playoffs, and the argument could be made that it’s the immediate contributions Heineman gave them that put Laval into the playoffs for a second consecutive season.

There’s an argument to be made that the positive traits of Heineman’s profile, namely his motor, physicality, and intensity, play better on smaller North American ice surfaces. The winger seemed to agree, telling The Athletic last month: “I like the small rink, I can use my shot a lot more.” (subscription link)

With Jesse Ylonen, a top-six staple in Laval over the last two seasons, set to become waiver-eligible for the first time next year and expected to graduate to NHL duty with Montreal, it’s likely that Heineman will be counted on to fill the offensive void Ylonen leaves. And if he can continue his hot start to his AHL career into full-time work next fall, a call to Martin St. Louis’ squad could come sooner rather than later for Heineman.

LHD Pavel Mintyukov, LHD Olen Zellweger, RHD Tristan Luneau, Anaheim Ducks (Ottawa 67s, Kamloops Blazers, Gatineau Olympiques, respectively)
80 GP 24G 73A 97pts (Mintyukov), 69 GP 43G 66A 109pts (Zellweger), 78 GP 22G 78A 110pts (Luneau)

A few days ago, the Anaheim Ducks made NHL history by becoming the first team to have prospects in each of the three Canadian Hockey Leagues (QMJHL, OHL, WHL) named their league’s defenseman of the year. Mintyukov, last year’s 2022 10th-overall pick, was given the honor by the OHL, while Zellweger and Luneau, second-round picks in back-to-back years, were given the honor by the WHL and QMJHL, respectively.

These awards cap off seasons that featured almost stunning offensive production for each player. In Mintyukov’s case, this season was an opportunity for him to move from Saginaw, a team he led in scoring in his draft season, to an Ottawa 67’s team that came in first in the OHL’s regular season, going 52-12-5. The six-foot-three blueliner has a chance to make the NHL with Anaheim next fall, and could be an instant-impact contributor for the franchise.

For Zellweger, this season was further evidence of how talented he is as a generator of offense from the back end. A dynamic skater, Zellweger’s production reached another gear after a trade to the Blazers, where he joined with high-flying Dallas Stars prospect Logan Stankoven. Together, they combined for nearly 60 points in just 14 (!) playoff games, though that effort was still not enough to get them past the Seattle Thunderbirds, a team rostering five NHL first-round picks.

Moving on to Luneau, his 2022-23 season was the dominant campaign that many saw him as due for after he was drafted first overall at the 2020 QMJHL entry draft. Luneau led the Olympiques to the QMJHL’s fourth-best record and his 17 points in 13 playoff games helped them reach the playoff semifinals, where they were swept by the top-seeded Quebec Ramparts. (who yesterday lost the first game of their entire playoff run)

Luneau’s season proved that the still possesses the sky-high potential he flashed earlier in his minor hockey career, and seeing as he won’t turn 20 until 2024, he’ll have the chance to dominate the QMJHL for another season.

All three players’ trophy wins represent a significant achievement for the Ducks’ scouting staff. They have identified some extremely talented players and spent some premium resources to get them, and now as a result Anaheim has arguably the most promising pipeline of defense prospects in the entire NHL.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason Checklist: St. Louis Blues

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at St. Louis.

It would be fair to say that the 2022-23 season didn’t go as planned for St. Louis.  A veteran-laden squad, there was an expectation that they’d be squarely in the playoff mix.  That didn’t happen.  Instead, St. Louis was one of the bigger sellers leading up to the trade deadline before going and doing some of their summer shopping early with the acquisitions of Jakub Vrana and Kasperi Kapanen.  While those pickups suggest they aren’t intending to bottom out next season, they’ll have some work to do this offseason to try to move back up in the standings.

Round Out Coaching Staff

Following a disappointing season like this one, some had wondered if there would be big changes behind the bench.  That wasn’t the case as Craig Berube remains as head coach but he’s in need of a pair of assistants as Craig MacTavish and Mike Van Ryn were both dismissed the day after the season.  MacTavish had been brought in to replace Jim Montgomery (who became the bench boss in Boston) while van Ryn had been on the staff for the past five seasons.

MacTavish was responsible for the penalty kill early on in the season before Van Ryn, who also ran the defense, took over.  In the end, the penalty kill had a success rate of just 72.4%, good for 30th in the league.  The Blues could opt to promote from within to fill those vacancies with AHL Springfield head coach Drew Bannister and associate coach Daniel Tkaczuk being the top options to move up.  Otherwise, they’ll look outside the organization to round out their staff.  This one isn’t a very high priority but it’s something GM Doug Armstrong will have to work on in the coming weeks.

Move Scandella

The optics for Marco Scandella’s time in St. Louis haven’t been great.  The Blues acquired him from Montreal back in 2020 for a second-round pick and a conditional fourth-rounder.  On the surface, that seems fine but the Canadiens had acquired him for a fourth-rounder alone just six weeks earlier.  Yes, salary retention was a factor but it seemed like a high price to pay nonetheless.  The four-year, $13.1MM extension he signed less than two months later also seemed on the high side.  That deal has one season left heading into 2023-24 and it’s going to be a problematic one.

It isn’t that Scandella is a particularly poor defender.  He’s a bit more of an older-fashioned rearguard who doesn’t jump into the play; he’s a stay-at-home player.  Those aren’t in high demand anymore but he’s a situational player that can play on the penalty kill.  There’s still a use for that type of player, just not at $3.275MM.  With St. Louis having minimal cap space (less than $7MM per CapFriendly), that’s a premium for a sixth defender that they can no longer afford.

Of course, there aren’t many other teams that can afford that premium either.  As a result, the Blues will have to incentivize a team to trade for him, further adding to those poor optics.  Alternatively, they may have to look into buying out the final year of his contract.  Such a move would save them $2.75MM next season but add $1MM to the books in 2024-25.  In theory, they could waive Scandella and send him down in October which would free up $1.15MM in room but most of that would have to go towards a replacement body, making that scenario not a great one either.  Frankly, none of them are ideal but if Armstrong needs some extra flexibility this summer, this is their best chance to get it and a move involving Scandella will need to be made.

Add Forward Help

One of the things that St. Louis will need cap space for is to add help offensively.  The team parted with long-time veterans Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly prior to the trade deadline and while both players were potentially on their way out the door anyway as free agents, they didn’t exactly acquire impact pieces in those swaps, instead opting for futures-based returns.  They were a mid-pack scoring team this season and with those two gone (plus Ivan Barbashev), there are some holes to fill offensively.  They can hope for bounce-back years for Vrana and Kapanen but those two alone aren’t going to fill the void.

It’s not a great free agent market this summer for teams looking to add impact pieces up front but St. Louis does have three first-round picks at their disposal after acquiring top-rounders in both the Tarasenko and O’Reilly swaps.  The period leading up to the draft in June could therefore be an ideal opportunity for them to acquire a top-six piece that’s either signed or under team control for several more years that can help replace the production from the veterans that were moved out.

Additionally, the Blues could also stand to add some help down the middle.  They experimented with Pavel Buchnevich and Kapanen playing at center down the stretch to mixed results.  It’s one thing to try these things when you’re just playing out the stretch but it’s unlikely that they view those two as full-season options at the position.  Even among bottom-six options, those players would take up the bulk of the remaining cap space that currently exists.

Shop More Defense

Moving out Scandella fixes a short-term problem but St. Louis still has a particularly pricey back end.  Their top-four defenders (Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, Colton Parayko, and Nick Leddy) are all signed through at least 2025-26 at a combined cap hit of $23.5MM.  That’s a lot of money, especially when you add in a minimum of three other blueliners to round out the roster.  While those four are certainly capable players, it would be fair to suggest that they’re not exactly getting the best bang for their buck.

On top of that, the Blues do have some promising youngsters that are on the cusp.  Scott Perunovich dealt with injuries for most of the season but should be ready to be a regular next season.  Tyler Tucker didn’t look out of place in his first taste of NHL action either and could be ready to be a full-timer on the roster a year from now.  Finding room for them would be ideal, giving St. Louis another reason to explore a swap.

The easiest of the four to move is likely Leddy.  It’s unlikely that they’ll want to move Faulk, Parayko’s term remaining on his deal hurts his value, and Krug is coming off a year to forget which would make it very difficult to move him for fair value.  Leddy is the one on the shortest deal (through 2025-26) at the lowest cost ($4MM) which would make him the logical choice if Armstrong decides to try to funnel more money into his forward group to tackle the needs up front.  There might be a short-term dip while Perunovich and/or Tucker get accustomed to a full-time spot but in the end, such an approach might be better for them in the long run.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Detroit Red Wings

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Detroit.

Many NHL fans will remember the dynastic Detroit Red Wings teams that took home four Stanley Cups between 1997-2008. Unfortunately, those days are behind America’s most winningest hockey franchise, and the likes of Steve Yzerman, Nicklas Lidstrom, Kris Draper, and Niklas Kronwall, have all transitioned from the ice to the front office. With the Red Wings finally seeing the light at the end of the tunnel for their strenuous rebuild, we’ll look at some boxes they should check this offseason. 

Find Time For Prospects

One of the most out-of-nowhere trades from this year’s deadline was the Red Wings shipping promising defenseman Filip Hronek to the Vancouver Canucks for the New York Islander’s first-round pick in this year’s draft. Arguably the team’s top defenseman at the time of the trade, finding time for prospects with a higher potential than Hronek is an intelligent move for Detroit to continue to make. 

To start, we’ll walk through a comparison of some of the top five forward selections from 2017-2021. In Group A, we have Tim Stutzle, Matthew Beniers, Nico Hischier, Brady Tkachuk, and Elias Pettersson. In Group B, we’ll compare Alexis Lafreniere, Barrett Hayton, Andrei Svechnikov, Kaapo Kakko, and Quinton Byfield. The averages for Group A: 273 GP, 225 P, 0.83 PPG, and 18:15 ATOI. For Group B: 215 GP, 112 P, 0.52 PPG, 15:02 ATOI. 

Although there is a major learning curve transitioning to the professional level, younger players are benefiting immensely from averaging more time on ice. With high-end prospects such as Simon Edvinsson, Marco Kasper, Albert Johansson, and William Wallinder right on the cusp, it is time for the Red Wings to swing more trades (much like they did with Hronek) to find adequate ice time to lead to the maximum growth for these players. 

Two players that immediately come to mind that the Red Wings should be seeking to move on from would be forwards Joe Veleno and Filip Zadina. Both players were drafted in the first round of the 2018 NHL draft, and have yet to establish much on-ice value for Detroit up to this point. With more notable prospects coming up the pipeline, and these two players likely still maintaining some value due to their young age and draft selection, the Red Wings should be looking to deal both of them this summer.

Establish Consistent Scoring

Since the 2019-20 season, Detroit has had a massive problem putting the puck in the net. The team has yet to finish outside the bottom ten in GF/G since the 2018-19 season. Luckily for Detroit, there should be players outside the organization that should help them improve in this category. 

In this year’s upcoming free agency period, the high-end scoring talent has already been thinned out, with the likes of David Pastrnak, Joe Pavelski, Andrei Kuzmenko, and Bo Horvat having already signed extensions. Of the remaining players, only Alex Killorn, Patrick Kane, Max Domi, J.T. Compher, and Vladimir Tarasenko would present real opportunities for Detroit. However, with the average age of the team only getting younger with prospect graduation, none of these players seem to fit the Red Wings’ timeline. 

Enter the trade market. Looking ahead at this offseason’s potential trade options, there are three players that seem to stand out as viable solutions to Detroit’s goal-scoring issues. Elias Lindholm from the Calgary Flames, Alex DeBrincat from the Ottawa Senators, and Brock Boeser from the Canucks. 

All three players fit into the Red Wings’ timeline, they have all shown an ability to score goals, and they all find themselves in precarious situations on their current teams. The Flames and Canucks are headed toward serious shakeups this offseason, and DeBrincat was very noncommittal on signing a contract extension in Ottawa. 

If any of these players become available, it would make sense for Detroit to swing a big trade to bring one of them in. 

Goaltending Upgrades

After acquiring goaltender Ville Husso from the St.Louis Blues after a brilliant 2021-22 season, the Red Wings may have thought their goaltending issues were finally shored up for the time being. Unfortunately, the move did not pan out as they may have hoped. 

This season, all of Detroit’s three goalies, Husso as well as Alex Nedeljkovic and Magnus Hellberg, all held a Quality Start Percentage less than 50% and produced a Goals Saved Above Average of -13.5, -4.4, and -8.2, respectively. In more topical statistics, none of their goaltenders produced a GAA of 3.00 or less, and none were able to sport a SV% of .900 or more.

After trading up in the 2021 draft to select goaltender Sebastian Cossa at 15th overall, it is evident that he will be the goaltender of the future in Detroit, and is likely sitting above another goaltending prospect, Carter Gylander, in their prospect depth chart. 

For the time being, with this year’s free agent market for goaltenders sporting the likes of Joonas Korpisalo, Antti Raanta, Semyon Varlamov, and Adin Hill, Detroit must once again be on the lookout for a better stop-gap until Cossa is ready to make the jump to professional hockey. 

Name An AHL Head Coach

As the Red Wings are prepared for an influx of talent to the minor league level, Yzerman highlighted the need for a winning culture when it comes to prospect development. In mid-April, after a last-place finish in the AHL’s Central Division, the Grand Rapids Griffins announced they would not be renewing the contract of head coach Ben Simon.

One of the top coaching candidates that comes to mind is Norm Bazin, the current head coach of the University of Massachusetts-Lowell of the Hockey East conference. Since taking over as head coach for the 2011-12 season, Bazin has accrued a 254-145-39 record, as well as one Frozen Four appearance in 2012-13, losing to the eventual champion Yale University.

With a track record of success, and a clear ability to coach younger players, Bazin would be a prime candidate to take over behind the bench for the Griffins next season. If the team is unable to convince Bazin to coach in Grand Rapids, Yzerman, and Assistant General Manager Shawn Horcoff will have plenty of work to do this summer in finding the best candidate.

An Overview Of NHL Head Coaching Candidates

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With the NHL Draft Lottery behind us and the second round fully underway, it is an appropriate time to provide an overview of the current crop of candidates for the NHL’s head coaching vacancies. The Anaheim Ducks, Calgary Flames, Columbus Blue Jackets, New York Rangers, and Washington Capitals are all without head coaches.

These vacancies each present their own challenges and opportunities. Washington, New York, and Calgary are teams with talented veteran cores and the desire to compete immediately, while Columbus and Anaheim are clubs with top 2023 draft picks and some exciting young players. With an eye to these vacancies and any vacancies still to come, here’s a look at the current crop of NHL head coaching candidates:

The Veteran Coaches

Gerard Gallant (Former New York Rangers head coach)

Perhaps best known for guiding the “misfit” expansion-year Vegas Golden Knights to the 2018 Stanley Cup Final, Gallant finds himself again on the open market after a two-season stint with the Rangers.

The positive aspects of Gallant’s resume are clear: he’s a three-time Jack Adams trophy nominee and one-time winner, a Memorial Cup champion, and has compiled a career record of 369-262-70.

But it’s notable that Gallant has not finished a third season behind the bench of any of his stops as an NHL head coach, leading to questions over whether he is the right coach for a team looking for someone to lead a long-term project.

He’s undoubtedly one of the most qualified names on the market, but there are, as with any head coaching candidate, some question marks in his profile.

Peter Laviolette (Former Washington Capitals head coach)

Like Gallant, Laviolette is an experienced head coach with an established track record of leading winning teams. Laviolette has led two franchises to the Stanley Cup final since winning it all with the Carolina Hurricanes in 2006 and has won the eighth-most games of any head coach in NHL history. Since the beginning of his tenure with the Philadelphia Flyers in 2009-10, Laviolette’s teams have missed the playoffs just twice. If a team wants a capable, experienced hand to stabilize their franchise and guide them to winning, Laviolette would be an ideal candidate.

But it’s also worth noting that while Laviolette has won a lot of games, playoff success has eluded his teams in recent years. He was hired by the Capitals to bring Washington the playoff success their former coach Todd Reirden couldn’t manage, but ended his time with the Capitals having lost both playoff series they competed in. While his standout resume speaks for itself, Laviolette’s teams have won one playoff series in the last half-decade, which is definitely something for teams to consider.

Bruce Boudreau (Former Vancouver Canucks head coach)

While Boudreau’s tenure as the head coach of the Canucks ultimately ended in disappointment, the 2008 Jack Adams Award winner remains among the most accomplished head coaches still active in coaching today. Boudreau’s .626 career points percentage ranks second in NHL history among head coaches with over a decade of NHL coaching experience, behind only two-time Stanley Cup champion Jon Cooper.

Boudreau’s track record of consistent regular-season success sets him apart. But while he is an AHL and ECHL champion, his teams in the NHL have largely failed to make noise in the playoffs, save for a run to the Western Conference Final with the Anaheim Ducks in 2015. If a club wants to make the playoffs, though, installing Boudreau behind their bench could be the way to go.

Darryl Sutter (Former Calgary Flames head coach)

Among the names on this list, Sutter has the the most championship experience with two Stanley Cup championships on his resume. He has the ninth-most wins of any head coach in NHL history, but after leading his teams to the playoffs in 13 of 14 seasons behind an NHL bench, Sutter’s teams have failed to qualify for the postseason in four of his last six campaigns as an NHL head coach.

The 2022 Jack Adams Award winner is a highly demanding coach who can help win a lot of games, but also can have a corrosive effect on a team’s off-ice environment, as Sportsnet’s Eric Francis reported happened late in his second tour with the Flames.

As Francis wrote: “No coach prepares players as well as Sutter, few work a bench as brilliantly as he does,” but “his tear-em-down, build-em-back-up approach sucked the love of the game out of many players, including franchise cornerstones Jonathan Huberdeau and Nazem Kadri.”

A team looking to compete immediately with their next head coach would be foolish to not consider Sutter for their vacancy, though they would have to weigh the very real positives and negatives of his resume and whether his style is compatible with modern NHL players.

Claude Julien (Former Montreal Canadiens head coach)

The 2011 Stanly Cup champion has taken on international duties for Hockey Canada as he awaits his next head coaching job. He’ll be behind the bench for the Canadians at the upcoming IIHF World Championships in Riga and Tampere, and very well could be behind an NHL bench after that.

Julien helped steward some poor Canadiens teams to respectability and will always be beloved in Boston for winning the Bruins their first championship since the days of Bobby Orr and Phil Esposito. But he also has not been behind the bench of a team winning a playoff series since 2014, and more and more teams could be opting for younger head coaches. He’s a safe choice for a team looking for a widely-respected bench boss, but maybe not the most exciting candidate given some of the other available names.

The Rising Stars

Andrew Brunette (New Jersey Devils assistant coach)

The Florida Panthers passed on Brunette, a 2022 Jack Adams Award nominee, after his team was swept in the second round by the Tampa Bay Lightning. Brunette was then hired by the New Jersey Devils in a move many believed to be succession planning for the eventual departure of head coach Lindy Ruff, only Ruff led the Devils on an extraordinary year that saw them exit their rebuild and defeat their arch-rival New York Rangers in the first round of the playoffs.

His work on Ruff’s staff this season is another feather in his cap as a head coaching candidate, and if the Devils are committed to Ruff as their leader moving forward, it’s possible another team poaches Ruff with the hope that he can help lead a third consecutive strong season behind an NHL bench.

Ryan Warsofsky (San Jose Sharks assistant coach)

While Warsofsky, 35, has just five seasons of head coaching experience on his record he’s among the most promising candidates on the market due to how successful he’s been in recent seasons. After two seasons behind the bench in the ECHL for the South Carolina Stingrays that included a run to the Kelly Cup Final, Warsofsky took the reins of the Carolina Hurricanes’ AHL affiliate, leading the Charlotte Checkers to a winning season and the Chicago Wolves to a 71-25-13 record across two seasons that included a Calder Cup championship. He was also a top assistant for the Checkers during their Calder Cup championship run in 2019.

This past season was his first behind an NHL bench, as Warsofsky took a role as an assistant on David Quinn’s San Jose Sharks staff. While the Sharks as a whole had a miserable season, Warsofsky’s work running the team’s penalty kill drew plaudits as the unit finished as the eighth-best in the NHL.

Spencer Carbery (Toronto Maple Leafs assistant coach)

Like Warsofsky, Carbery is currently on his first opportunity to coach behind an NHL bench. He’s on head coach Sheldon Keefe’s Toronto Maple Leafs staff, helping the team to impressive regular-season records as well as a long-awaited playoff series victory. Before taking the job in Toronto, Carbery was the head coach for the Hershey Bears in the AHL, going 104-50-17 across three seasons.

Carbery doesn’t have championship experience yet like some of the other names on this list, although he did come close with the ECHL’s Stingrays in 2015, just as Warsofsky did two years later with the same club.

Mike Vellucci (Pittsburgh Penguins assistant coach)

The longtime head coach and general manager of the Plymouth Whalers, a now-relocated OHL team, Vellucci has spent the last three seasons as an assistant on head coach Mike Sullivan’s Pittsburgh Penguins staff. He has some championship experience, winning an OHL title in Plymouth in 2007, as well as with the Charlotte Checkers in the AHL and the Detroit Compuware Ambassadors in the NAHL. Vellucci’s best work was likely in 2019 with the Checkers, as that team tore through the AHL en route to a Calder Cup.

He hasn’t yet gotten a shot as an NHL head coach yet, but he was a head coach across different levels every year from 1995-2020. Could this hiring cycle be when he gets his chance?

Mitch Love (Calgary Wranglers head coach)

While Vellucci was a head coach from 1995-2020, Love had his first season as a head coach in 2018-19, an impressive 45-15-8 season coaching Kirby Dach and the WHL’s Saskatoon Blades. His time in Saskatoon was certainly respectable, to be sure, but it’s Love’s two-year run as head coach of the Calgary Flames’ AHL affiliates that has drawn the most attention. The 38-year-old former minor leaguer has won an impressive 96 of 140 regular-season games in charge of the Stockton Heat and now Calgary Wranglers, and has helped oversee the development of superstar goalie prospect Dustin Wolf.

He led Stockton to the Conference Finals in the AHL last season and now has the Wranglers in the Pacific Division Finals against fellow AHL juggernauts the Coachella Valley Firebirds. Look out for Love as a future NHL head coach, and if he can manage to add a Calder Cup championship to his resume, he could very well be a possibility for the Flames’ current vacancy.

Jeff Halpern (Tampa Bay Lightning assistant coach)

As a player, Halpern played in nearly 1,000 NHL games and by the time of his retirement was a widely-respected bottom-six center. The former Princeton University star began his coaching career relatively soon after his retirement, joining the Syracuse Crunch in time for their 2017 run to the Calder Cup final. After one more season in the Salt City, Halpern joined Cooper’s staff in Tampa Bay and ended up contributing to the team’s run that net the franchise two Stanley Cups and three Prince of Wales trophies in three seasons.

Cooper’s Stanley Cup-winning Tampa Bay Lightning staff has already been pillaged to an extent, with top assistant Derek Lalonde now the head coach of the Detroit Red Wings. With the Washington D.C. native and six-season Washington Capital perhaps making particular sense for that team’s current vacancy, it’s unlikely that Cooper’s staff goes much longer without losing another name to an outside promotion.

David Carle (University of Denver head coach)

The 33-year-old Carle has already built an impressive resume as head coach of the University of Denver, despite his relatively young age. The 2008 Tampa Bay Lightning draft pick led the Pioneers to an NCAA Men’s Ice Hockey National Championship in 2021-22, helping numerous players earn NHL contracts.

While this season ended in disappointment with a playoff loss to Cornell, Carle’s tenure as the Pioneers’ bench boss is already opening doors for his future, such as when he was last month named head coach of USA Hockey’s team for the 2024 World Junior Championships. Could a call from an NHL team be next?

The Second (or Third) Chances

Jeremy Colliton (Abbotsford Canucks head coach)

Named as the successor to Joel Quenneville with the Chicago Blackhawks, Colliton’s tenure in the Windy City didn’t exactly go to plan. He was expected to infuse some youth and energy to an aging roster, and the team had the expectation of quickly returning to Stanley Cup contention under his watch, as evidenced by the Blackhawks’ trade for Seth Jones. That didn’t happen, though, and Colliton was fired midway through 2021-22.

A former successful AHL head coach with the Rockford IceHogs, Colliton was hired to coach the Vancouver Canucks’ AHL affiliate, the Abbotsford Canucks, and has turned in solid work there, leading the team to a 40-25-7 record and a qualifying series victory over the Bakersfield Condors. He was once seen as a promising young head coaching candidate before a difficult Blackhawks tenure soured his standing in the eyes of many observers. Perhaps his strong first season in Abbotsford leads him back into “rising star” territory in the eyes of NHL teams.

Travis Green (Former Vancouver Canucks head coach)

A WHL Championship-winning head coach with the Portland Winterhawks and a respected player developer and AHL bench boss with the Utica Comets, Green had a rollercoaster run as head coach of the Vancouver Canucks that ended near the start of its fifth season. Despite the good work Green did with the Canucks’ AHL affiliate, he was ultimately a casualty of the doomed Jim Benning era, unable to separate himself from the mistakes the franchise is still working to recover from.

A team with a head coaching vacancy could look at Green and see someone who nearly took the Vancouver Canucks to the Western Conference Final and had a stellar record of balancing winning and player development in the AHL with Utica. While he might need to take another job as a stepping stone before getting another chance as an NHL bench boss, it’s possible that a club buys into Green as a talented head coach who might just need another shot.

Glen Gulutzan (Edmonton Oilers assistant coach)

Unlike Green and Colliton, Gulutzan has actually already received a second chance as an NHL coach. He got that in 2016-17, when he was hired to coach the Calgary Flames three seasons removed from when he was head coach of the Dallas Stars.

Before his tenure in Dallas went up in flames, Gulutzan worked his way up from successful ECHL head coach with the Las Vegas Wranglers to Calder Cup finalist with the Texas Stars to promising young NHL head coach.

Since being fired by the Flames, Gulutzan has been an assistant coach with the Edmonton Oilers and remained on staff even as the team cycled through head coaches, going from Todd McLellan to Ken Hitchcock to Dave Tippett and then to Jay Woodcroft.

Gulutzan is charged with managing Edmonton’s power play, a unit that has stolen headlines this season as by far the league’s best, scoring at a 32.4% rate. If there is a club with some talented offensive firepower but a sputtering powerplay, such as the Ducks, perhaps Gulutzan could be an intriguing option.

Todd Nelson (Hershey Bears head coach)

Nelson is an experienced minor league head coach whose only experience as an NHL head coach came in 2014-15 when the franchise’s focus was squared more intensely on their odds of winning the Connor McDavid draft lottery than immediate Stanley Cup contention. After serving on the Dallas Stars’ coaching staff and helping the franchise reach the 2020 Stanley Cup Final, Nelson this season took the job as the Hershey Bears’ head coach and currently has them in the AHL’s Atlantic Division finals.

Nelson is already a Calder Cup champion, having managed the Grand Rapids Griffins to a title in 2016-17, and could very well add another championship to his trophy cabinet by the end of this season. He has exactly the sort of resume many teams want to see out of up-and-coming head coaches, and this hiring cycle could be the time he finally gets a real shot at being an NHL head coach.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Offseason Checklist: Washington Capitals

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Washington.

For the majority of Alex Ovechkin’s time in Washington, the Capitals have been a team that has been in the thick of the playoff hunt.  It looked like that would continue through the first half of the season before they completely bottomed out down the stretch.  It seems unlikely that Washington will engage in a rebuild while Ovechkin is around so GM Brian MacLellan will be tasked with getting his veteran core back into the thick of things in 2023-24.  Here are some items that will be on his to-do list in the coming months.

Hire A Head Coach

First things first.  After mutually parting ways with veteran bench boss Peter Laviolette, the Capitals need to find a new head coach.  Generally speaking, a veteran-laden team will often want to have an experienced coach with a track record of getting short-term success.  There are some options out there if they opt to go that route including Gerard Gallant, Claude Julien, and even former Washington coach Bruce Boudreau.  Andrew Brunette, a current New Jersey assistant, doesn’t have as long of a track record as the others but could garner some consideration.

However, there will be plenty of speculation that will link them to Toronto assistant coach Spencer Carbery.  The 41-year-old has long ties to the Capitals organization, going back to his days coaching their ECHL and AHL affiliates before leaving for the Maple Leafs two years ago.  Carbery is viewed as an up-and-coming coach and given MacLellan’s familiarity with him, it’s reasonable to infer that he’ll be a strong candidate.  Washington has also been linked to Lightning assistant Jeff Halpern so even with a veteran roster, they’ll be casting a wide net to find their next head coach.

Sort Out Kuznetsov’s Future

It’s not often that a team that’s expected to try to be in the playoff mix the following season looks into the possibility of trading its number one center but it certainly feels like MacLellan is going to have to look into doing so.  A report from Match TV in Russia back in March suggested that Evgeny Kuznetsov twice requested a trade with a move clearly not coming to fruition.  Last month, it was revealed that he changed agents, further adding fuel to that fire.

The 30-year-old had one of his best seasons in 2021-22, picking up 54 assists and 78 points in 79 regular season games while picking up five points in their first-round exit.  However, he failed to carry that over this year with his point-per-game rate dropping to 0.68, the second-lowest over his nine full NHL seasons.  Along the way, he started to lose some playing time to Dylan Strome who, with a five-year, $25MM extension in hand, is now entrenched as a big part of Washington’s core moving forward.

Of course, even if Kuznetsov wants to be moved, it’s something that’s easier said than done.  Notwithstanding his partial trade protection, he has two years remaining on his contract which carries a $7.8MM AAV.  At his level of production from 2021-22, he’s worth that money.  At this season’s production, however, it’s a considerable overpayment.  What helps to mitigate the cap hit somewhat is that it’s a shorter-term agreement than what most centers will command in free agency.  A team looking for a short-term stopgap might prefer a trade for Kuznetsov over giving someone else a cheaper but longer-term commitment.

That all said, moving Kuznetsov would also open up a significant hole down the middle, especially with Nicklas Backstrom no longer the high-end playmaker he once was and Strome not being a true top middleman.  If they decide to rebuild, it’s not as much of a concern but if they are looking to compete for a playoff spot next season, they will need to find a way to convince Kuznetsov that staying is the best idea or find a way to bring back a top-six center either as part of the trade return or in another swap.

Create Cap Flexibility

Even after selling at the trade deadline, cap space is at a premium for the Capitals this summer after handing out new, more expensive deals to wingers Sonny Milano and Nicolas Aube-Kubel plus defensemen Nick Jensen and Trevor van Riemsdyk.  The end result is an increase in spending by $4.975MM based on their cap hits next season compared to 2022-23.  Accordingly, Washington enters the summer with just over $7.3MM in cap room, per CapFriendly, assuming that the Upper Limit only goes up by $1MM as expected.

A decent chunk of that remaining money will go toward re-signing RFA blueliner Martin Fehervary and after the 23-year-old logged 20 minutes a night this season, there’s a good chance his next deal will pass the $2MM mark.  It’s also likely that they’d like to re-sign pending UFA winger Connor Brown who was limited to just four games before suffering a season-ending ACL tear.  The injury might limit Brown’s market but even so, someone’s likely to offer at least a one-year, ‘show me’ deal around the $3.6MM cap charge he had on this now-expiring deal.  Re-sign those two and there might not even be enough to round out the roster with players on minimum-salaried contracts.

Again, a Kuznetsov trade could help on that front but if they don’t go that route, they will have to find other ways to free up cap space.  Moving winger Anthony Mantha and his $5.7MM cap charge would help but after another tough season, his deal isn’t one that teams will be lining up to acquire.  T.J. Oshie has two years left at $5.75MM but at the age of 36 and partial no-trade protection, that’s not an easy move to make either.  But if the Capitals want to add anyone of consequence this summer, they’re going to need to free up some cap room to make that happen.

Work On Wilson Extension

This season was a bit of an up-and-down year for winger Tom Wilson who missed the first half of the year after recovering from offseason ACL surgery.  When he was in the lineup, however, he was relatively productive, notching 13 goals in just 33 games, a 32-goal pace which was well above his career rates.  While he has a checkered history with the Department of Player Safety, Wilson has also been one of the most prominent power forwards in the league in recent years with his current deal often serving as a benchmark for deals for similar players in recent years.

That contract, a six-year, $31MM agreement, has just one year remaining on it which makes him eligible to sign an extension starting in July.  Wilson’s offensive production on this deal has been decent – 93 goals and 98 assists in 289 games – but, as it was before, offense alone won’t dictate the price of this next agreement.  He’ll be 30 when his next deal kicks in, meaning that a max-term extension of eight years could very well be on the table.  While eight years for a power forward might not sound great, it stands to reason that an agreement of that length could also help to keep the AAV of the deal a little lower.

Both Wilson and MacLellan have made it clear that they want to get a new deal in place.  They’ll have plenty of time this summer to see if they find a contract that both sides are happy with and ensure that a key part of their forward group will be sticking around for the long haul.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Philadelphia Flyers

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Philadelphia.

The Flyers were hoping that John Tortorella would come in, shake things up, and help get them back into the playoff picture.  While the new bench boss made some waves, they dealt with several key veterans missing the season and they weren’t able to really get into the mix for a spot in the postseason, coming up short for the third straight year, the first time that has happened for them in nearly three decades.  One change of note was made late in the campaign and this offseason will likely bring more of those.

Finalize Front Office

When Chuck Fletcher was fired shortly after the trade deadline, it was decided that his job would be split into two positions, a GM and a team president.  Decisions will need to be made on both fronts for who will be in those roles.

On the GM side, Daniel Briere was named to the interim post when Fletcher was let go.  He is the presumptive favorite to remain in that role and considering he hasn’t been on the job that long, there isn’t much of a body of work to go off of.  However, Briere has been considered an up-and-coming executive for a few years now and it seems like only a matter of time before the interim tag is lifted.

As for who will be the president, that’s a search that’s likely to take some time.  Assuming Briere remains as GM, Philadelphia will likely want someone with front office experience to provide a complementary skill set.  Veteran GMs Ray Shero and Doug Wilson have been suggested as possible candidates while Dave Poulin, Scott Mellanby, and Emilie Castonguay are also believed to have been under consideration.  There are likely others involved as well.  Finding the right person to work with Briere to lead this new direction will be critical.

Start The Shakeup

For me, the next step with this organization is: You don’t start adding players until you subtract them. I think there needs to be some subtraction.

This isn’t a quote from a disgruntled fan or reporter, nor is it one from Briere or his predecessor.  No, it’s a quote from Tortorella about seven weeks ago.  Of course, that came after the trade deadline so there wasn’t anything that could be done on the subtraction front at that time.  Now, some of those moves can be made beyond letting free agents like James van Riemsdyk hit free agency this summer.

At the top of the list appears to be Kevin Hayes.  The veteran center got off to a strong start this season, hovering near the point-per-game mark which helped him make it to the All-Star Game.  However, he saw his playing time slip in the second half which also featured a change in position and the end result was a final few months that were rather unproductive.  Speaking with reporters after the season, Hayes indicated that he thinks he’ll be on the move in the near future.  He would certainly fit in on many teams but with three years remaining on a contract that carries an AAV of over $7.1MM, not many of those squads will have the cap space to take him on.  Accordingly, it seems likely that Philadelphia will have to pay down some of the deal, take back some matching money, or both to help facilitate a move.

Then there’s blueliner Anthony DeAngelo.   After a strong showing in Carolina in 2021-22, he received a two-year, $10MM deal from the Flyers to be a big part of their back end.  Instead, he languished defensively and was a healthy scratch for the final five games of the season.  The 27-year-old has made it clear that he wants to remain with the Flyers but he isn’t seeing eye-to-eye with Tortorella, it doesn’t do anyone any favors for him to be a high-priced scratch at times next season.  Speaking of underachieving blueliners, Rasmus Ristolainen is a contract they’d likely like to get out of but with four years left at $5.1MM, such a move might be hard to make.

There was some hope the coaching change last summer would help put Ivan Provorov back on an upward trajectory to get him back to the form he showed early in his career.  That didn’t happen, even with his playing time being dropped a bit to the lowest it had been since his rookie campaign.  Is he part of the long-term future on the back end still?  With two years left on his deal at $6.75MM, there should be interest in him if Briere looks to make a bigger shakeup.

Decide Hart’s Future

A few years ago, Carter Hart made an immediate impact in the pros and after his first two seasons, it looked as if the Flyers had their franchise cornerstone in place between the pipes.  But things haven’t gone as well since then over the past three seasons.  Accordingly, with a shakeup believed to be on the horizon, some have wondered if the 24-year-old could be included in that, especially in a relatively weak UFA market at the position.  Alternatively, is the time right to try to lock him up long-term when his asking price would likely be lower now compared to next summer if he has a better showing in 2023-24?

Hart has one year remaining on his bridge deal, one that carries a $3.979MM AAV with a qualifying offer of $4.479MM in the 2024 offseason.  For a starting goalie, that’s a more than reasonable rate.  A long-term agreement would likely push that price tag past the $5MM mark at a minimum, likely closer to $6MM.  Is that something that the Flyers are willing to pay?  If not, the idea of a trade starts to look a little more palatable.

The challenge with moving Hart is that there isn’t a clear-cut replacement in the system.  Samuel Ersson did alright in his first taste of NHL action but it’s a 10-start sample size.  Felix Sandstrom has underwhelmed in his 25 NHL contests.  They had high hopes for Ivan Fedotov but after required military service prevented him from coming to North America this season, it’s fair to wonder if he’s ever going to cross the pond.  Without a top-end prospect in place, moving Hart would carry some risk unless they’re getting another young goaltender in return.

With Hart being signed for another year, Briere (assuming he remains as GM) can kick the can down the road and defer this decision to next season.  But if it’s determined that Hart is going to remain Philadelphia’s goalie of the present and future, extension discussions should pick up soon; he’s eligible to sign one as of July 1st.  On the flip side, if they’re going to shop him, Hart with two years of control probably has more value than Hart with one year of control a year from now.  With that in mind, determining Hart’s future with the franchise becomes an important part of their summer.

Re-Sign Frost

A year ago, Morgan Frost was still looking to establish himself as a capable and consistent NHL forward.  That resulted in him taking a one-year, $800K bridge deal.  It’s safe to say that Philadelphia got good bang for their buck on that agreement as the 23-year-old finished fourth on the Flyers in scoring with 19 goals and 27 assists in 81 games.

Frost is now a restricted free agent once again but still does not have salary arbitration eligibility.  Since he played just two games in the 2020-21 campaign, that year doesn’t count toward the four years required to gain that eligibility.  That gives Philadelphia a little more leverage here.

Are they ready to give Frost a long-term deal?  That doesn’t seem likely at this point.  Instead, another bridge agreement makes sense here that buys both sides a longer look to see if he can become a consistent top-six fixture.  This time around, that deal should check in around three times his one from last year, even without arbitration rights.  Frost is three years away from UFA eligibility so they could opt for a two-year pact here as well which would push the cap hit a bit higher while giving both sides some certainty.  It’s not as pressing of an issue as some of the more prominent RFAs around the league but Frost is the most prominent player that the Flyers will want to re-sign.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Arizona Coyotes

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Arizona.

It was an interesting year for the Coyotes.  A team that looked like it was built to bottom out, Arizona actually had a winning record on home ice and even a late-season struggle didn’t drop them into the bottom five of the standings.  While there is still a long way to go in their rebuild, there is cause for optimism moving forward.  That is, assuming one major item gets checked off their checklist later this month.

Crank Up The Marketing

Generally speaking, a team’s promotion of something wouldn’t be classified as newsworthy.  But later this month, Tempe voters will vote on the proposed Tempe Entertainment District.  Voters have to vote on three propositions, one to amend the general plan for the property which is currently a landfill, one to approve the rezoning for the project, and one to enter into a contract with the development company.  If any one of those three propositions is defeated, the project will fall through and Arizona’s arena search will be dealt a serious blow.

The full project is expected to cost roughly $2.1BB and covers the construction of a new arena, along with high-end retail, upscale restaurants, boutique hotels, and more than 1,900 luxury residential units in the city.  While city council is on board with the project, there has been some vocal opposition to it as well, making it far from a foregone conclusion that it’s approved.

Accordingly, the Coyotes are likely to pick up the push to generate some positive momentum for voting which closes on May 16th.  A yes vote on all three propositions could help secure their future in the desert, a boon for a franchise that has basically been chasing its financial tail for more than a decade now.  Meanwhile, a no vote would call their long-term future into question as there is no financially viable way for them to stay in a college arena, even if it’s one that they’ve enjoyed some early success at.

Shop Schmaltz

Over the past few years, there has been a significant exodus of players from the Coyotes but one player who has lasted so far is Nick Schmaltz.  The way his contract is structured has seen Arizona realize considerable savings in his salary relative to his cap hit, $6.9MM over the first four years of the deal.  The pendulum is set to swing the other way as he’s owed over $24MM in salary in the remaining three seasons.  For a budget-conscious team like Arizona, this is particularly noteworthy.

Their financial situation aside, there’s a hockey-related reason to look into moving the 27-year-old.  GM Bill Armstrong admitted back in March that he feels Arizona is nearing the halfway point of its rebuild.  (For context, they’ve missed the playoffs three straight years after qualifying for them in the bubble.)  With 47 draft picks over the next four years, it stands to reason that they’re still several more seasons away from truly contending.  With that in mind, does it make sense to hold onto a player who isn’t likely to be part of their core once they get to the point of trying to contend?

Schmaltz has strung together two straight strong, albeit injury-riddled campaigns.  After picking up 23 goals and 36 assists in 63 games in 2021-22, he followed that up with 22 tallies and 36 helpers in 36 contests this season.  At a minimum, that’s strong second-line production and a $5.85MM AAV for a capable second middleman is more than reasonable.  Of course, his salary could very well deter some other budget-conscious franchises but that shouldn’t stop the Coyotes from generating a strong market for Schmaltz, especially with three years left at that cap hit.

No, Arizona doesn’t have to move Schmaltz now.  They could easily hold onto him and revisit things closer to the trade deadline.  But if they’re looking to keep payroll costs down as much as possible to offset a lack of ticket revenue (which has played a role in them trading for multiple LTIR players to capitalize on only paying the uninsured portions of their salaries), moving Schmaltz before the puck drops on the 2023-24 campaign would certainly help on that front.

Goaltending Decisions

From the moment that Karel Vejmelka established himself as a viable NHL netminder, there have been questions about his long-term future with the Coyotes.  Even after he signed an extension a little more than a year ago, that didn’t do much to quash trade speculation.  With two years remaining at a team-friendly $2.75MM AAV, there would be considerable interest in the 26-year-old and this deal would be expiring before Armstrong’s stated intended emergence from the rebuild.

By that logic, it could be inferred that Vejmelka is a strong candidate to be moved this summer.  But for all the prospects that Arizona has (and they have a lot of them before even considering the 17 picks in the first two rounds in the next four years), they don’t have a goalie of the future.  Accordingly, they might be better off holding onto him and trying to extend him next summer.  Armstrong will need to decide what the plan is for his top puck-stopper.

Meanwhile, a decision has to be made on Connor Ingram as well.  His first full NHL campaign was a decent one as he posted a .907 SV% in 27 games this season behind a team that wasn’t exactly strong in its own end.  He’s a restricted free agent in July and considering his qualifying offer is barely above the minimum salary, he’d seemingly be a no-brainer to be tendered.  However, the 26-year-old is arbitration-eligible and with the going rate for a capable backup goalie going up considerably in recent years, it’s possible that the award, should it get to a hearing, might be higher than Arizona is comfortable paying.  As a result, Armstrong will likely look into trying to move Ingram’s rights this summer if Ingram’s ask in contract discussions is too high for his liking.

One possible pressure point to factor into these decisions is Ivan Prosvetov’s waiver eligibility next season.  While the 24-year-old has been inconsistent in his brief NHL tenure, they feel he could be a legitimate NHL netminder.  Will they want to open up a spot for him next season over either carrying three goalies or running the risk of losing him on waivers?  If so, that will play a hand in one of Vejmelka or Ingram being moved.

Re-Sign Maccelli

While winger Matias Maccelli didn’t qualify as one of the three Calder Trophy finalists, it doesn’t take away from what was a strong (and surprising) rookie year.  A season after recording just a goal and five assists in 23 games, the 22-year-old became an important part of Arizona’s attack, finishing third on the team in scoring with 49 points in 64 contests while leading all NHL freshmen in assists with 38.

Maccelli is set to become a restricted free agent this summer as his entry-level contract comes to an end.  He doesn’t have arbitration eligibility and is owed a qualifying offer of just over $874K.  It’s safe to say he’ll land a fair bit more than that on his second deal.

In the past, the Coyotes haven’t shied away from signing their core young players to long-term agreements.  If they feel Maccelli is going to play at this level or better moving forward, they’d be wise to try to lock him up now.  However, with barely one full season’s worth of NHL games under his belt, the safer play would certainly be a bridge agreement.  Chances are that’s the path Armstrong will take with Maccelli in the coming months.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Offseason Checklist: Montreal Canadiens

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The offseason has arrived for half of the league’s teams that aren’t taking part in the playoffs plus those that were eliminated early.  It’s time to examine what they will need to accomplish over the coming months.  Next up is a look at Montreal.

After finishing last in the league a year ago, expectations were rather low for the Canadiens heading into the season.  While they played better in the second half of 2021-22 under Martin St. Louis, how would the team fare in his first full campaign?  The end result was not much better although Montreal had significant injuries throughout the year once again.  They’re not at a point where they’re likely to push for a playoff spot but they will still have a few things to get through this offseason.

Decision On Gurianov

When the Canadiens opted to pick up winger Denis Gurianov at the trade deadline instead of a draft pick for Evgenii Dadonov, it looked like Montreal was hoping that they could get him going and that he’d be a multi-season asset for the team.  Of course, with a $2.9MM qualifying offer due in June, they’d need to see some steady play to deem him worthy of that offer.

What they wound up getting, however, was a mixed bag.  The 25-year-old had five goals and three assists in 23 games with his new team, a better performance than how he started the year in Dallas.  Extrapolated over a full season, Gurianov’s numbers with the Canadiens would have been 18 goals and 11 assists; a player that gets close to 20 goals is probably worth that qualifying offer.

However, his game-to-game performance varied significantly to the point where it might be risky to tender him at that rate.  If they feel that way, chances are that other teams will too which probably takes a trade off the table.  At that point, the options are to try to negotiate a cheaper one-year agreement or just outright non-tender him.

Gurianov’s track record suggests there should be some interest in him if he makes it to free agency, just at a price tag below $2.9MM.  He had three straight double-digit goal seasons before this one plus a strong playoff performance in the bubble in 2020.  With that in mind, if the Canadiens go to him with an offer below his qualifier, would he be better off testing the open market anyway?  They have just under a couple of months to figure out what will happen with Gurianov.

Re-Sign Caufield

Cole Caufield had a long-term stay on Montreal’s injured list this season as he missed nearly the final three months of the campaign after undergoing shoulder surgery.  Despite that, he still finished tied for the team lead in goals with 26 in just 46 games.  Even missing basically half the season, he still had a strong platform year heading into restricted free agency for the first time in his career.

Despite needing a new deal, Caufield doesn’t exactly have a lot of NHL experience under his belt, just 123 regular season contests, basically the equivalent of a year and a half worth of games.  That makes it a little harder to find a range of comparables on a long-term contract although the seven-year, $49MM deal that Minnesota gave Matt Boldy earlier this season should provide a general floor of what such a move might cost.  Having said that, it stands to reason that if that deal or something close to it was an option for Montreal, an agreement would be in place already.  It also remains to be seen if they will want to use Nick Suzuki’s $7.85MM AAV as an internal cap in discussions.

At a time when many teams are considerably more aggressive than they used to be in terms of bypassing bridge contracts in favor of long-term pacts, it’s possible that the pendulum swings back the other way this summer.  With the expectation that the increases to the salary cap should be more significant starting in 2024-25, Caufield might prefer to take a bridge deal and try to work out a long-term agreement in a couple of years when the cap will be higher.

One thing to note here is that Caufield still has five years of RFA eligibility remaining instead of four as he didn’t accrue a season towards free agency when he came out of college and finished up the 2020-21 campaign.  That sets up a scenario where a bridge agreement could be as long as four years.  In that situation, his camp might push for the type of deal that Dallas winger Jason Robertson received, a four-year contract with a $7.75MM AAV.  Something that is also worth noting is that the two players share the same agent, Pat Brisson.  Without salary arbitration rights, this negotiation could take a while.

Utilize Cap Space

The Canadiens have been capped out the last couple of years but have some pricey contracts coming off the books in Jonathan Drouin ($5.5MM) and Sean Monahan ($6.375MM) while Paul Byron and his $3.4MM will also be cleared after the winger was on LTIR all season long.  While Caufield will take up a big chunk of those savings, he’s the only RFA of note that Montreal has.

That at least gives them the option to look to add a player or two in a trade or on the open market; it wouldn’t be surprising to see them try to bring Monahan back on a one-year deal as he had fit in rather well before injuries ended his year prematurely.  Alternatively, they’re in a position to potentially look to do what they did with Monahan and take on a contract while being compensated with a draft pick or prospect for doing so.  Assuming they’re willing to go deep into LTIR again with Carey Price’s $10.5MM deal, they might have a couple of opportunities to do so.

Clear Some Clutter

One thing that rebuilding teams typically like to do is create some opportunities for younger players but the Canadiens have quite a few veterans that it could be suggested are taking up some spots.  Wingers Mike Hoffman (one year, $4.5MM) and Joel Armia (two years, $3.4MM) have underachieved while veteran blueliner Joel Edmundson (one year, $3.5MM) is coming off a down year and plays on the left side of the back end, a side that Montreal has a lot of depth at already.

Moving one or two of these players out would open up some roster spots, either for a prospect like Rafael Harvey-Pinard to push for a full-time spot or, if they do take on an unwanted contract, a spot will be needed for that player.  There’s definitely some risk in moving out some depth on a team that has dealt with plenty of injuries the last two seasons but it’s still an avenue they’d be wise to look into.

Back at the trade deadline, GM Kent Hughes acknowledged that he purposely opted to keep one salary retention slot open to give them some more trade options at the draft.  (Salary retention slots used on players on expiring contracts don’t clear until July 1st.)  It stands to reason that this retention slot could be used to try to move out one of these veterans before free agency opens up in July.  Accordingly, the Canadiens could be a team to keep an eye on when it comes to the trade market in the coming weeks.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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