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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Nashville Predators

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season passes the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Nashville Predators. 

What are the Predators thankful for?

A return to form for two veteran forwards.

The Nashville Predators have just four forwards that carry higher cap hits than Colton Sissons’ $2.86MM. If any of those four struggle, the offensive attack can become predictable and inconsistent. Filip Forsberg has been as reliable as any and Mikael Granlund has developed a never-stop work ethic, but the two at the very top of the salary chart had been brutal in recent years.

Matt Duchene and Ryan Johansen combined for just 13 goals last season. Duchene has already matched that total in 26 contests this time around. Both players are playing at an entirely new level and now have 49 points combined through the first part of the season. Without them, the team was still going to be a middle-of-the-pack group on the playoff bubble. With them playing like this, Nashville is sitting in second place in the Central Division. Duchene has missed a couple of games with an upper-body injury and Johansen is in the COVID protocol, so their continued success is still something to monitor.

Who are the Predators thankful for?

John Hynes.

It didn’t look like this at first, but Hynes has secured buy-in from his group and has the Predators playing better than most expected. The team is on a seven-game winning streak at the moment and would never be mistaken for a club that is easy to play against (Tanner Jeannot and Mark Borowiecki will see to that).

In fact, Hynes is likely in the mix for the Jack Adams award if this continues. His overall record in Nashville is now 66-44-4, but that winning percentage is only going up as he navigates the 2021-22 campaign.

What would the Predators be even more thankful for?

A real breakout from one of the high picks.

Philip Tomasino is only 20 years old, so it’s hard to expect more than he’s giving the team right now. But his nine points in 26 games isn’t exactly what fans were hoping for from the player that dominated the AHL as a teenager last season. The same could be said about Cody Glass, a sixth-overall pick brought in during the offseason. Glass has spent nearly the entire year in the minor leagues and while he’s played well, that’s not helping the Predators right now.

The one that could realistically breakout this season? Eeli Tolvanen, who still hasn’t been able to produce big offensive numbers despite his peripheral numbers suggesting he will eventually. Tolvanen has been eating up easier matchups and offensive deployment to rack up shots but has just five goals on the year. That 6.5 shooting percentage isn’t going to last forever though, especially not with a player that is known for his ability to beat goaltenders from distance.

There’s no guarantee that he will break out, but Tolvanen certainly has the talent and is creating enough opportunities that it could come at any time. If they get some improved secondary scoring from their 22-year-old Finn–while Duchene and Johansen continue to succeed–watch out.

What should be on the Predators’ Holiday Wish List?

An upgrade on the third pair.

The top two pairs in Nashville have been set for almost the entire season. Roman Josi skates beside Dante Fabbro, while Alexandre Carrier has turned into a reliable partner for Mattias Ekholm. But beyond that, it’s been a little shakier. Nashville has leaned heavily on their top-four for years, but the idea of Borowiecki, Matt Benning, or Philippe Myers moving up the lineup due to injury is certainly not one that inspires visions of a Stanley Cup.

Acquiring a defenseman who was in the top-four somewhere else and has proven he can do that on a regular basis would set the Predators up for a long postseason run. It doesn’t need to be a star or a top-pairing guy, but an upgrade on Benning would certainly be a positive addition.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Montreal Canadiens

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season passes the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Montreal Canadiens (when it eventually resumes). 

What are the Canadiens thankful for?

Carolina’s playoff position.

There’s no getting around it, the Canadiens and Hurricanes have beef (manufactured for social media or not). After Montreal signed Sebastian Aho to an offer sheet in the summer of 2019, Carolina came back two years later and signed Jesperi Kotkaniemi to an outlandish offer that the Canadiens simply couldn’t afford to match. The Hurricanes didn’t make any attempt to hide the fact that it was a revenge play, even including the same verbiage Marc Bergevin had used initially in Don Waddell’s press release and adding a $20 signing bonus (an homage to Aho’s jersey number) in the Kotkaniemi contract.

It’s ironic then, that the Canadiens have so much riding on Carolina’s performance this season.

When Montreal traded for Christian Dvorak almost immediately after declining to match the Kotkaneimi offer sheet, they included a first-round pick in the package sent to the Arizona Coyotes. The Coyotes will receive the better of the two picks Montreal owns–their original selection and the one received from Carolina in compensation. That is of course unless one or both of the picks end up in the top-10, in which case the Coyotes will receive the worse of the two. Montreal looks destined to have a pick in the top-10 after this dreadful season, meaning it’s Carolina’s pick that will eventually transfer to Arizona. But there’s no additional protection involved; if Carolina somehow slipped out of the playoff race and fell down the standings, there’s a chance Montreal could be giving up quite the pick. Remember, the new lottery rules come into effect this year, meaning that teams outside the playoffs can only jump up a maximum of ten spots, but it would still be quite the nervous night if the Hurricanes managed to miss the postseason somehow.

Who are the Canadiens thankful for?

Nick Suzuki.

There hasn’t been much to celebrate in Montreal this season. Cole Caufield, the odds-on favorite to win the Calder Trophy according to many before the season, has just a single goal and six points in 23 games. Mike Hoffman, brought in to provide some offensive firepower has been injured, sick or ineffective and has just eight points so far. David Savard, brought in to stabilize the defense in Shea Weber’s absence, has been brutal and his four-year deal looks like a massive mistake.

Even Suzuki, the brightest star in a sea of dim light, has been underwhelming. He leads the team with 18 points through 31 games, but it’s his long-term contract that is something to look forward to in Montreal. Even if the team goes through a rebuild, they will know exactly how much their top center costs and how long they have him. Suzuki is signed through the 2029-30 and invested in the Canadiens success. Sure, had they waited until after this poor season to sign him it may have been a bit cheaper, but who knows if he commits to eight years after this dreadful campaign.

A comparison could be made to Dylan Larkin, who made it through the bad years in Detroit only to return to his explosive self this season when given some more talent to work with. Larkin hit a career-low of 23 points in 2020-21 and has 29 already this year. Even if it’s a forgettable year in Montreal and for Suzuki, he’s too good to be kept that way forever.

What would the Canadiens be even more thankful for?

A lottery win.

Listen, players like Matthew Savoie, Logan Cooley, and Danila Yurov are great talents and should have long productive NHL careers. But there’s a reason why all 10 scouts surveyed by Bob McKenzie of TSN put Shane Wright at the top of their board for 2022. The Kingston center was in a tier by himself in Corey Pronman’s rankings for The Athletic and colleague Scott Wheeler wrote that he is “not worried about his place at the top of this draft class” despite a rather pedestrian start by his standards (30 points in 22 games).

With the Canadiens now in 31st place, just a few points ahead of the Coyotes for last in the NHL, that first-overall pick is a legitimate possibility in 2022. Selecting second or third would certainly still help the rebuild, but nabbing Wright would lock in another top-six, two-way center that could give Montreal a considerable duo down the middle for 2022 and years to come.

What should be on the Canadiens’ Holiday Wish List?

Stalled young players.

While the Canadiens could and should target draft picks at the upcoming deadline, the team already does have quite a few to work with this year. They’ll pick seven times in the first four rounds even if they don’t make a single move, adding quite a few prospects to the pipeline. A more interesting strategy might be going after some of the young players around the league who have stalled in their development or need fresh starts.

Again, an example in Detroit could be of use here. The Red Wings acquired Robby Fabbri in 2019 for Jacob de La Rose, a player that now finds himself playing in Sweden. Fabbri had been a highly-touted youngster, but major knee injuries had stalled his career in St. Louis. Snatched for almost nothing, he rebuilt himself in Detroit by receiving top-six playing time that he wasn’t likely to get elsewhere and recently signed a new three-year, $12MM contract extension. If the Canadiens are going to clear some of the veteran names off the books, there will be opportunities in the lineup for young players to get back on track.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

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Navigating the salary cap is one of the more important tasks for any GM.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation for the 2021-22 season and beyond.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of CapFriendly.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $81,972,800 (over the $81.5MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

D Bowen Byram (two years, $894K)
F Alex Newhook (two years, $908K)

Potential Bonuses
Byram: $2.5MM
Newhook: $850K
Total: $3.35MM

Newhook got a taste of NHL action last season in a limited role but spent most of the early part of this year back in the minors.  However, he has been quite productive since being recalled and is staking a claim to a full-time spot which would give him a chance of hitting at least a couple of his ‘A’ bonuses at just over $212K apiece.  Even with that, however, a bridge contract seems likely in order to preserve some space for the bigger ticket expiring deals at that time.

The same reasoning is likely to be applied to Byram as well.  He is a bit more established than Newhook but his concussion trouble is going to create some hesitance on GM Joe Sakic’s part to commit to a big-money, long-term contract.  If he can stay healthy for a few years, such a move would be more likely but they’re not going to get to that point in 2023.  As for his bonus situation, if he’s able to get cleared to return and can stay in the lineup for a while, he has a chance of meeting the four ‘A’ bonuses, earning $850K of his potential bonuses; the rest are unlikely.

One Year Remaining, Non-Entry-Level

F Nicolas Aube-Kubel ($1.075MM, RFA)
F Andre Burakovsky ($4.9MM, UFA)
G Pavel Francouz ($2MM, UFA)
F Darren Helm ($1MM, UFA)
D Jack Johnson ($750K, UFA)
F Nazem Kadri ($4.5MM, UFA)
G Darcy Kuemper ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Kurtis MacDermid ($875K, UFA)
D Ryan Murray ($2MM, UFA)
F Valeri Nichushkin ($2.5MM, UFA)

When Colorado acquired Burakovsky, he had shown flashes of top-six ability but he was also quite inconsistent.  The flashes are still there and they are much more frequent now as his production has risen significantly.  He isn’t at a level where he can necessarily command top dollar for wingers but he could jump past the $6MM mark.  Kadri is having quite the contract year and is in the top five in league scoring.  That won’t set him up to get elite center money on the open market – especially with his past – but good centers are always in high demand and short supply.  If he continues at this pace, surpassing $7MM on a long-term deal is a definite possibility.

Nichushkin has been particularly strong in limited action this season but his history since being with the Avs is that he works as a middle-six winger.  The market was a lot better for those players over the summer so a raise into the mid-to-high $3MM range should be doable for him.  Aube-Kubel and Helm could feel the squeeze of a tight cap situation as those spots will probably need to go to players making closer to the minimum next season.  Both could have a case for receiving similar money to what they’re getting now but they may have to go elsewhere to do so; arbitration eligibility could make Aube-Kubel a non-tender candidate.

Murray’s market didn’t really materialize so he opted for a bit of a pillow situation to try to showcase his value on a good team.  It hasn’t gone quite as planned as he has had a limited role when he’s in the lineup and as has been the case for most of his career, staying healthy has been a challenge.  On reputation alone, he could still land somewhere near this price on a one-year deal next summer but it’s hard to see a multi-year commitment heading his way unless the second half goes a lot better than the first.  MacDermid brings plenty of physicality but is best utilized in a depth role which will cap his earnings upside at a level not much higher than it is now.  As for Johnson, he has been a nice bargain pickup for the Avs.  Given his past, however, it’s hard to see him going more than year-to-year at this point although he could land a small raise next summer.

The Avs paid a high price tag to get the final year of Kuemper’s deal and the results have been mixed so far.  Based on his numbers with Arizona, he’s someone worthy of passing $5MM per season.  With Colorado?  Not so much.  A big second half and playoff run can change things but as of right now, he’s someone who could land about $1MM more with teams being hesitant to go past that with him only passing the 30-game mark twice in his career.  Francouz has yet to play an NHL game on this contract which started last season due to injury.  That doesn’t bode well for his future earnings and a cheap one-year deal may be all he can manage.

Two Years Remaining

F J.T. Compher ($3.5MM, UFA)
D Erik Johnson ($6MM, UFA)
F Tyson Jost ($2MM, RFA)
F Nathan MacKinnon ($6.3MM, UFA)

It’s MacKinnon’s contract situation that will make long-term commitments hard to hand out between now and then.  Over the past five years, two players have recorded more points than he has (and they both play for Edmonton).  If there’s anyone that can challenge Connor McDavid for the highest AAV in NHL history, it may very well be MacKinnon.  He’ll hit the open market at 28 so a max-term contract is all but a given (eight years from Colorado, seven from anyone else).  Even if he doesn’t pass the $12.5MM mark, he should come close which would add upwards of $6MM to their payroll.  Until they have a sense of what they can do with their star center, Sakic should be looking at short-term options to ensure they have the flexibility to keep MacKinnon in the fold.

Compher did well in MacKinnon’s absence earlier this season which bolsters his case that he’s capable of being a regular top-six player.  When everyone is healthy for the Avs, however, he isn’t in that situation.  Unless something changes (such as Kadri moving on and Compher moving up a notch on the depth chart), he’ll be hard-pressed to get much more than what he’s making now.  Jost has been a little better this season but is still underwhelming relative to his draft stock.  He’s not consistent enough to be a top-six player and pure bottom-six players without a particular specialty don’t often get big deals.  He’s owed a $2.25MM qualifying offer in 2023 and depending on what happens with MacKinnon, that may be too rich for them.

A few years ago at the start of this contract, Johnson was seeing plenty of time on the top pairing and playing a prominent role.  Now he’s 33 and missed almost all of last season due to injury.  His days of being a fixture on the top pair are over and he’s more of a role player.  He’s actually off to a nice start to his season, showing he has something left in the tank, albeit not at a $6MM level.  If he stays healthy, he could drop to the high-$3MM range or perhaps a bit less if someone wants to give him a longer-term contract, a risk as he’ll be subject to 35+ rules (unless the contract is structured uniformly).

Three Years Remaining

D Devon Toews ($4.1MM, UFA)

A tough cap situation for the Islanders was great news for Colorado as they were able to add Toews for a pair of second-round picks and sign him to a deal that he is outperforming significantly.  He’s up over a point per game this season after notching a career-best 31 last year and is logging nearly 25 minutes a night again.  As a result, Toews is providing top-pairing production while getting paid less than what some teams are paying their third blueliner.  If he continues on this trajectory, doubling his current AAV could be attainable.

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What Your Team Is Thankful For: Minnesota Wild

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season passes the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Minnesota Wild (when it eventually resumes). 

What is Minnesota thankful for?

Finally having a true star to market.

Throughout the history of the Minnesota Wild, there have been some excellent players. Marian Gaborik, the team’s first-ever draft pick, stepped into the spotlight as a teenager and scored 30 goals in his sophomore season. He would hit a career-high 42 in his last full, healthy season with the Wild, but was never really even close to any individual awards. Mikko Koivu was picked sixth overall in 2001, but it took him several years to reach the NHL and when he did, his two-way ability was probably never appreciated as much as it should have been. He was a Selke finalist once in a long career, but never received a single vote for any other individual award–not exactly a superstar, even if he was the heart and soul of the franchise.

In 2012, Ryan Suter and Zach Parise put the Wild on the NHL map by signing massive free agent contracts to head back to the State of Hockey, but even they blended into a mediocre team that would make the playoffs on a yearly basis without ever really contending.

Now things have changed, with their marketable, dynamic star forward Kirill Kaprizov. There’s no doubt that signing Kaprizov to a five-year, $45MM contract this offseason was a risk; after all, he had played just 55 regular season games to that point. But there was no doubting Kaprizov’s obviously ability, not only to put the puck in the net but also to invigorate the Minnesota market. Kaprizov was called “the most exciting player in franchise history” almost from the moment he arrived, and with 36 points in 30 games, he’s on pace to set a team record in just his second year. Only one player in Wild history has registered more than 80 points–Gaborik, exactly once. Kaprizov looks like that won’t be much of a problem for him should he stay healthy throughout this contract.

Who is Minnesota thankful for?

Ryan Hartman.

There’s no doubt that Kaprizov is the most marketable, and arguably the most important player on the team. That doesn’t, however, mean that the team is most thankful for him in particular. For that, we come to Hartman, who has figured it out at age-27 and now looks like one of the most incredible bargains in the league.

After two mediocre seasons with Minnesota, Hartman actually accepted a three-year contract that saw his cap hit go down this offseason, dropping from $1.9MM to $1.7MM. He’ll carry that number through 2023-24 and actually earns just $1.1MM in actual salary this season. What do you get for $1.1MM? How about 14 goals and 26 points through 30 games, all while driving possession and contributing defensively. If plus-minus is more your thing, Hartman leads the entire league at +22 to this point and has done nearly all of his damage at even strength. It’s an impressive accomplishment for a player that is on his fourth team and has a career-high of 31 points. If this is what Minnesota is going to get from Hartman moving forward, he’ll be one of the most valuable contracts out there.

What would Minnesota be even more thankful for? 

A consistent Kevin Fiala.

Make no mistake, when at his best, Fiala is one of the most dynamic offensive players in the entire league. There’s good reason to believe that he could have become that marketable star that Minnesota longed for, had he been able to find any level of consistency to this point. But it just hasn’t been there for him this season, as he struggles to find the back of the net despite plenty of good chances.

It’s not that Fiala is having a terrible year–20 points in 30 games is certainly nothing to turn your nose up at–but it’s those flashes of superstardom that leave fans wanting so much more out of the 25-year-old forward. Decision time is coming quickly as Fiala is a restricted free agent after the season, owed a qualifying offer that would open up a potential arbitration award even higher than his current $5.1MM salary. With whispers about his future in the organization (or lack thereof) coming out earlier this year, a more consistent performance over the second half of the year would go a long way to securing the next stage of his career.

What should be on Minnesota’s Holiday Wish List?

More center depth.

While this may actually come from an internal source, if the Wild decide that Marco Rossi is ready for the NHL, there’s little doubt that the center ice position is still an area of weakness for Minnesota. Joel Eriksson Ek’s upcoming diagnosis after leaving with injury last night will likely decide what kind of player the Wild need to target on the trade market, but a center of some level is needed even if he’s healthy enough to quickly return to action.

The clock has struck midnight on Victor Rask’s 2020-21 performance, with the veteran center now receiving just around 10 minutes a night when he’s even in the lineup, Nick Bjugstad is basically a fourth-line winger at this point, and the combination of Nico Sturm and Frederick Gaudreau doesn’t inspire a ton of confidence when it comes to long playoff runs. If Eriksson Ek is out long-term, the team will desperately need to add a top-six center to the mix at some point. If he’s coming back, some extra depth will still be required.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Los Angeles Kings

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season passes the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Los Angeles Kings.

What are the Kings thankful for?

Jonathan Quick playing like the Jonathan Quick of old.

Ten years ago, Quick, then in his prime, was an elite goaltender in the NHL.  He led the league in shutouts, had a save percentage of .929 (his career high), and of course then helped lead Los Angeles to the Stanley Cup.  However, the last few years, he has battled injuries and poor performance with a save percentage that started with an eight in two of the last three seasons which is at the lower end for a backup let alone a starter.  That played a role in Cal Petersen getting a three-year, $15MM extension at the start of the season, giving them some insurance for a declining Quick.

Except Quick isn’t in decline this season.  In fact, he has gone back to being one of the elite goalies in the NHL with a save percentage that’s slightly better than the mark he put up a decade ago.  That has been the primary reason that the Kings have allowed the seventh-fewest goals in the NHL despite Petersen struggling and Los Angeles being hit hard at times with injuries on the back end.  Quick may not be in his prime anymore but he’s certainly playing like he still is.

Who are the Kings thankful for?

Anze Kopitar.

Through the good times of a decade ago and the not-so-good times that the last few seasons have been, Kopitar has been his usual reliable self.  He produces plenty of points, takes plenty of faceoffs, and often faces top opponents while doing that (although Phillip Danault has taken some of the pressure off of him this season).  The captain just does it all for Los Angeles.  As the Kings look to stay in the thick of the playoff race in the Pacific Division – they’re five points out at the moment – they’ll need Kopitar to help lead what’s still a fairly young roster.  There’s no reason to think he won’t be able to do just that in the second half of the season.

What would the Kings be even more thankful for?

Defensive production.  The Kings have just six goals from their defensemen this season, three of which have come from Drew Doughty who has been limited to just 11 games this season due to an early injury and a stint in COVID protocol.  The forward group isn’t the strongest in terms of proven NHL talent (more on that shortly) but this is a back end that has the potential to produce more than they have so far.  Michael Anderson was productive in college but has just one point this season.  Matt Roy was above average in terms of AHL production but he’s still chasing down his first goal of the season.  Kale Clague has their third-highest point per game average among blueliners but he’s in Montreal now with Sean Durzi producing at a similar clip since being brought up.  There is some room for improvement from their blueliners and that could go a long way towards helping them close the gap in the division.

What should be on the Kings’ Holiday Wish List?

Scoring upgrades.  If Los Angeles is going to hang around the playoff picture, they need to score more.  Only three players have scored more than six goals so far and only one (Adrian Kempe) has hit the double-digit mark.  It’s hard to have much success when a team is only scoring 2.62 goals per game.  A top-six winger that can give the Kings a second capable scoring line would be a big addition and could allow them to move Dustin Brown into a more optimal role.  With Sean Walker on LTIR for the rest of the year, they have a bit of flexibility to try to add and as LTIR room doesn’t bank like regular cap space does, it’s a need they can try to fill before the trade deadline.

A depth defenseman could also be a worthwhile addition but with Doughty now recovered from his injury, that’s less of a need than it was a month ago.  A top-four pickup would go a long way but there aren’t really (if any) available at the price point that they can afford on the cap.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Florida Panthers

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season passes the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Florida Panthers (when it eventually resumes). 

What are the Panthers thankful for?

A resurgent Sergei Bobrovsky.

No team in the league can get by with a player making over $10MM and performing the way Bobrovsky did the last two seasons. He’s being paid like one of the best goaltenders in the league, and he posted a .902 save percentage over his first 81 games with the team.

It’s not that Bobrovsky is competing for the Vezina this year–his numbers aren’t that good–but a .917 has been good enough behind a powerful Florida lineup to result in a 12-3-2 record. Given Spencer Knight’s struggles in his first full season, it was absolutely imperative to have Bobrovsky take the net back.

Who are the Panthers thankful for?

Bill Zito.

Since Zito has arrived in Sunrise just over a year ago, the Panthers have, among other things:

It’s been a pretty successful tenure for the former player agent and Columbus Blue Jackets assistant GM in his first go-round as the boss. The Panthers look like they’re set up for long-term success while also being a contender right now.

What would the Panthers be even more thankful for?

A healthy return for Barkov.

It was a brilliant start for the 26-year-old Finn. Barkov had five points in his first three games, 17 in his first 15. But then Scott Mayfield of the New York Islanders caught him with a knee-on-knee collision and things abruptly came to a halt. Barkov would return for one game, but end up back on injured reserve.

Now, as the Panthers are put on hold over the Christmas break due to COVID, Barkov has just played in just 16 of Florida’s 29 games. He doesn’t necessarily need to rush back, the team is good enough to stay in a playoff position without him. But for the Panthers to go on a deep postseason run, they’ll need their big center to be at full strength.

What should be on the Panthers’ Holiday Wish List?

Defensive depth.

There actually may be a case to be made for a better backup goaltender, given the team is currently going with Jonas Johansson behind Bobrovsky at the NHL level. But with Nutivaara on long-term injured reserve without a clear return, the defense could use a boost as well. The top three are locked. Aaron Ekblad, MacKenzie Weegar, and Gustav Forsling are going to continue to log huge minutes for the team when healthy. But Montour’s role has been diminished this year, Radko Gudas is probably playing more than he should, and beyond that, it’s a mix of inexperienced young players.

The idea of adding another legitimate top-four option, someone who can play in all situations and elevate the entire group, could make the Panthers one of the most deadly opponents in the league. A player like Jakob Chychrun–if he’s truly available–would be perfect, but even a lesser name like Ben Chiarot could potentially allow everyone to slot in a little better come playoff time.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Edmonton Oilers

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season passes the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Edmonton Oilers.

What are the Oilers thankful for?

Being in a win-now situation.

While that doesn’t hold up the greatest at the moment with them currently being on a six-game losing streak, this is a team that’s built to try to contend now.  Not a couple of years from now but right away.  GM Ken Holland brought in several veterans over the summer and paid big money to ensure Ryan Nugent-Hopkins isn’t going anywhere anytime soon either.  There will come a time where the cap consequences of those moves will be problematic but in the short term, Edmonton is going for it which is usually fun for both the players and the fans.

Who are the Oilers thankful for?

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

Really, it’s hard to pick just one here.  One leads the NHL in scoring with 45 points and the other, well, also leads the league in scoring with 45 points.  There is no other duo as dominant as McDavid and Draisaitl are around the league.  Both can dominate their own lines and when they’re put together, they’re even more potent.  Both are franchise players in their own right and when many teams don’t have any, they have two.

To that end, Edmonton is also quite thankful that both are signed long term.  McDavid has the richest deal in the league at $12.5MM but many would argue that’s below market value and he’s signed through 2025-26.  Meanwhile, Draisaitl is definitely on a below-market contract; his $8.5MM AAV doesn’t crack the top-30 league-wide.  He’s locked up through 2024-25 meaning the Oilers will have their superstar pairing intact for at least three years after this one.

What would the Oilers be even more thankful for?

More secondary scoring.  Zach Hyman has certainly helped in that regard as he already has 11 in his first season with the team.  It goes downhill after that, however, as only one other player on the team has more than five tallies.  Nugent-Hopkins, who admittedly is more of a playmaker than scorer, only has three goals, their defense has just ten combined (including only one from Darnell Nurse whose big extension kicks in next season), and their bottom six have pretty much all vastly underachieved.  This is how a team that has the two top offensive players in the league is barely in the top ten in goals scored.  If even one or two players can pick up the pace, Edmonton would become a lot more dangerous in a hurry.

What should be on the Oilers’ Holiday Wish List?

After reading the last paragraph, secondary scoring might seem like it should be atop their list but there are other areas of concern.  Mikko Koskinen has done better than expected this season but he and the currently injured Mike Smith are a tandem that would appear to be on the weaker end heading into the playoffs.  Adding another capable veteran – even if it’s one that just raises the floor of their goaltending group – would certainly help.

So, too, would bringing in another defenseman.  Injuries to Duncan Keith and Slater Koekkoek have thinned them out and their younger prospects aren’t quite ready for full-time NHL duty.  Another veteran to serve as injury insurance and bridge the gap to the youngsters would be beneficial while a top-four addition would be a critical addition.

However, wishing for this is a lot easier than actually getting it done.  Edmonton is well into LTIR and by the time they get their players back, cap space will be at a premium.  They won’t be able to bank any space as they will still be in LTIR thanks to Oscar Klefbom, Josh Archibald, and Alex Stalock so it’s going to be pretty close to a money in, money out situation.  Accordingly, it’s far from a guarantee that they’ll be able to add anything on their list.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Poll: Is Ben Bishop A Hall Of Fame Goaltender?

at CDT | by 26 Comments

Dallas Stars goaltender Ben Bishop held a press conference today to discuss the end of his career. After trying to rehab and recover from a knee injury that has bothered him for more than two years, Bishop played a single game in the AHL before throwing in the towel. He explained just what he was dealing with all this time and how it didn’t allow him from continuing his career:

If I was a forward, I could be playing right now. But just with the butterfly, the torque you put on your knee, it just couldn’t really get better. 

Last week when we drained it, there was still some flecks in the fluid which means there was some cartilage wearing away. With all that, I still wanted to go down and give it a try because I wanted one last try to make sure. I was hoping I could go down and everything would be OK. But obviously after the game, it blew up. In talking to the doctors, it doesn’t make sense to just kind of be ripping your knee apart if you’re not going to get back to playing.

Bishop will not technically retire, as his contract extends through the 2022-23 season. He’s owed $3.5MM for this season and next, meaning he’ll be just moved to long-term injured reserve for now. His playing days are over though, which means fans can look back and dissect an outstanding playing career that was unfortunately cut short.

There is a real question that arises when considering Bishop’s excellent-but-limited NHL career. Should he be considered for the Hall of Fame?

At first thought the easy answer may be no, given he never won a major award, never won the Stanley Cup, and was really only a full-time NHL player for seven years. But that seven-year stretch was also some of the best goaltending the league has ever seen, as fans of the Lightning and Stars will attest.

In 2013-14, his first full season with Tampa Bay, Bishop started 64 games for the Lightning, going 37-14-7 with a .924 save percentage. He finished third in Vezina Trophy voting, behind the winner Tuukka Rask (36-15-6, .930) and runner-up Semyon Varlamov (41-14-6, .927). He actually finished ahead of Rask in the Hart Trophy voting though (but behind Varlamov) because of the view of Tampa at the time. After all, they’d missed the playoffs each of the previous two seasons and were under the guidance of a rookie head coach–some guy named Jon Cooper.

Not a bad start for a goaltender that was already on his third team.

In 2014-15, he took a slight step back in terms of save percentage, posting a .916 for the Lightning. The team was a lot better though, as Bishop secured 40 wins in 62 appearances during the regular season. He then started another 25 games in the playoffs, helping the Lightning all the way to the Stanley Cup Final, where they would fall to the Chicago Blackhawks. Bishop’s numbers that postseason? A .921 save percentage and playoff-leading three shutouts.

When 2015-16 rolled around there was no doubting his ability, and what would follow was an incredible goaltending season. In 61 appearances, Bishop went 35-21-4, posted a .926 save percentage, and league-leading 2.06 goals-against average. In the playoffs, he’d go 8-2 with a .939 save percentage and it looked like he was on his way to a potential Conn Smythe nomination, but ended up stretchered off the ice during the first period of game one of the Eastern Conference Finals. Young Andrei Vasilevskiy would play the next six games, ultimately losing in a heartbreaking game seven to the Pittsburgh Penguins. When the Vezina votes were tallied that year, Bishop would come close to another victory, but end up coming second to future teammate Braden Holtby’s 48-9-7 record, despite the Washington netminder’s worse numbers in other categories.

Injury had robbed him of a chance to further his legacy those playoffs, and the Vezina finish would be a sign of things to come. Bishop played just 39 games in 2016-17 as Vasilevskiy took over in Tampa Bay, forcing the Lightning to find a trade partner. Bishop was shipped to the Los Angeles Kings, where he served as a backup to Jonathan Quick down the stretch. He’d play just seven games with the Kings before an offseason trade and extension brought him to the Dallas Stars.

It’s in Dallas where perhaps his most compelling case for the Hall of Fame took place. In his first year, he was a strong starter for the Stars, putting up a 26-17-5 record with a .916 save percentage. It’s that 2018-19 season that could have changed his legacy though, had voters felt stronger about his case over that of his former protege. Andrei Vasilevskiy took home the Vezina as the Lightning posted a historic 62-16-4 record, but Bishop had outpaced him in nearly every goaltending metric. In fact, since they started tracking shot data, Bishop’s 2018-19 .934 save percentage is the fourth-best in history among goaltenders who appeared in at least 41 games. He’d finish second in the voting, a finalist for the third time in his career.

Overall, Bishop ranks 78th all-time in wins by a goaltender with 222. He’s even further down that list in terms of games played. His career was extremely short, there’s no getting around that. But it was also outstanding. His .921 career save percentage puts him fifth, behind only Dominik Hasek, Johnny Bower, Rask, and Ken Dryden. Three of those names are in the Hall of Fame, the fourth likely will be one day.

So is Bishop a candidate for the Hall of Fame? Or is he just another member of the Hall of Very Good, with a career cut short by injury, overlooked by voters, and ultimately, unsuccessful in reaching the pinnacle of the sport–the Stanley Cup.

Does Ben Bishop deserve to be in the Hall of Fame?
No 81.91% (1,141 votes)
Yes 18.09% (252 votes)
Total Votes: 1,393

[Mobile users click here to vote!]

PHR Mailbag: Sullivan, Projections, Miller, Canadian Struggles, Ownership

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Mike Sullivan’s candidacy for the Jack Adams award, future scoring projections, an intriguing trade target for the Bruins, discussing the struggles of several Canadian teams, and league ownership.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in Monday’s mailbag.

Rayno15: Why is Mike Sullivan not in the running for Coach of the Year?

Who says he isn’t?  It’s an award that’s voted on at the end of the season, not just past the one-quarter mark.  The end result in the standings often dictates who is and isn’t a finalist for this award and in mid-December, it’s way too early to set that.

To be honest, I think Sullivan could be a viable contender depending on how things play out.  Pittsburgh has been hit hard with injuries this season with offensive cornerstones Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jake Guentzel, and Bryan Rust all having missed or are currently missing significant time while most of their back end has missed a handful of games as well.  To be hanging around the playoff mix in spite of all of that is certainly impressive.

But can they stay there?  It’s one thing to be in the mix in December and another to be playing in May when the playoffs get underway this season.  Where they finish will determine whether or not Sullivan is a viable candidate for the award.  If they can get into the playoffs in spite of their injury trouble, there’s a good chance he’ll be on quite a few Jack Adams ballots.

The Duke: Dear PHRM Crystal Ball, As you know by now, I’m always looking to be one step ahead in my 12-team Keeper League, ergo I pose these questions:

  1. Of the following, please rank and project which has the quicker/brighter scoring future, with goals ranked ahead of assists: Matt Beniers, Adam Beckman, Cole Perfetti & Jack Dugan.
  2. Same as above for Rasmus Sandin and Calen Addison.

1) In terms of a quicker future, I don’t think you’re going to see any of these four get substantial NHL action this season.  Perhaps Beniers at the end of the year will see time but there’s no short-term impact coming.  Next season, I’d expect both Beniers and Perfetti to be regulars and likely in a top-six role.  The fact that Dugan didn’t get a look last season was curious and injuries haven’t helped this year.  But he turns 24 in March so the clock is ticking fast on his NHL upside.  Beckman’s skating is a concern for me.  The rest of his skillset is promising but overcoming skating has been easier said than done.

That puts Beniers and Perfetti in a class of their own for me as the other two may be more complementary players than high-impact ones.  I’ll rank them by a ballpark guess of what a typical season for them could be in terms of goals and points once they’re established in the league.

Beniers: 30/80
Perfetti: 25/60
Dugan: 15/40
Beckman: 15/35

2) Obviously, Sandin is the quicker option considering that he has basically been a regular this season with the Maple Leafs while Addison has been up and down with Minnesota.  Barring injuries, Addison probably isn’t a regular down the stretch while Sandin should stay in Toronto’s lineup.  So for short-term help, Sandin is the better play.

I also think he’s the higher-scoring option on a long-term basis.  Neither project to see substantial power play time with veterans locked up in front of them on the depth chart (Morgan Rielly and Jared Spurgeon) and both have top-four upside at five-on-five.  If I have to guess which one will be the higher-scoring option, I’ll go with the team that has the better long-term offensive outlook and that’s Toronto.  Minnesota’s scoring more this season but is that sustainable with the cap-related cuts to the roster?  I’m not so sure on that one.  Nonetheless, their projections would be pretty close:

Sandin: 8/30
Addison: 6/25

I could see both of them having some years where they’re over those thresholds but others where they’re below so call that an average forecast.

SkidRowe: J.T. Miller to the Bruins. What would it take?

From a fit perspective, this would certainly be a good one for Boston.  He could slide into the number two center spot that they’ve been trying to find the right fit for all season long and plays an all-situations game that would really make their top six a real strong spot.

However, it’s worth mentioning the cap situation before digging into a hypothetical trade.  Boston has just over $13MM in cap room for next season, per CapFriendly.  Adding Miller would knock that just under $8MM with a few roster spots to fill including re-signing Patrice Bergeron.  That would be a very tight squeeze, perhaps too tight to try to fill.  Accordingly, Boston would need to move out some money for next season to make a move justifiable; acquiring Miller only to have his contract price out Bergeron next summer wouldn’t be ideal.

I’m sure you’re thinking Jake DeBrusk would be part of such a package but I don’t think his trade value is all that strong. Vancouver doesn’t have the cap space to take multiple pricey players back and DeBrusk’s deal is up next season and the Bruins should want to clear some 2022-23 money off the books here.  I don’t think he’s a good fit here as a result.  Given the state of the Canucks’ defense, I could see someone like Matt Grzelcyk carrying some value and that would offset a good chunk of Miller’s money.  A first-round pick is a given as well.

These deals also usually have a good prospect in there.  I could see Vancouver interim GM Jim Rutherford asking for John Beecher, a 2019 first-rounder if the trade market for Miller is robust enough to basically get a second first-rounder included and with the season he’s having, that’s a definite possibility if he’s made available.  I could see Boston GM Don Sweeney countering with someone like Jack Studnicka.  Two-way point-per-game centers don’t become available often and while Miller would be a great fit for Boston, he’d be a great fit for many other teams as well.  The price is going to sting as a result, especially with him on a below-market contract for another year.  Either way, this is a move that probably comes closer to the trade deadline as right now, the Canucks are still trying to get back into the playoff hunt.

pawtucket: How does one put out the Canadian tire fires that are the Canucks, Canadiens, Sens, and even recently the Jets?

Vancouver: They’ve made two big swings quickly with Bruce Boudreau and Rutherford coming in as win-now people.  From an ownership perspective, they’re hoping Boudreau can turn things around and the early returns are good.  Their defense still needs improvement although getting one with next to no cap space will be a challenge.  They could still sneak into the playoffs and while that’s not a great accomplishment, this is a win-now roster and they have to get to the postseason to see if this core group can get something done.  A bit of patience will be needed as Boudreau makes his mark.

Montreal: Sometimes, it’s just not your year.  The Canadiens are beyond battered due to injuries and have already set a franchise record for the most games played in a calendar year at 106 (and they have nine more before the month is out).  I don’t think they get out of this funk this season and they will embark on some sort of rebuild/reset by the trade deadline with a coaching change as soon as the offseason to see if a different approach can spark the players that are still around.

Ottawa: I thought they’d be better this season.  Not necessarily a playoff team but not a lottery contender either, however, injuries have hurt them as well.  For now, it’s ride it out with some prospects getting a longer look but for the offseason, they need to do a better job of bringing in impactful buffer veterans that can shelter some of their younger players instead of just taking up spots at the back of the roster.  That would help move them from the back of the standings towards the middle where they’ll be battling for a Wild Card spot and although that’s not too exciting, it’s a step they need to take; teams rarely go from pretender to contender all at once.

Winnipeg: I don’t think there’s much they really can do.  They’re in a money in, money out situation so the only card they have to play is a coaching change and I don’t think that’s warranted at this time.  As I mentioned in last week’s mailbag, I think they’ll be fine by the end of the season.

blueavenger77: Has the NHL ever had a publicly owned franchise similar to the NFL’s Green Bay Packers? If not, do NHL rules prohibit a publicly held non-profit corporation from owning a team? I ask the question because it seems to me that many NHL franchises would have a better chance of stability and success with a different ownership structure.

There isn’t anything quite like Green Bay’s public ownership structure in the NHL with the closest thing to any type of public ownership being able to buy shares in the group that owns the team such as the Rangers and Madison Square Garden Entertainment.  There’s nothing that I can see in the NHL Constitution that prohibits such an ownership structure although there is a note that says the Board of Governors can change the ‘membership’ criteria from time to time which, I suppose, could allow them to block such an attempt if they so desired.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

What Your Team Is Thankful For: Detroit Red Wings

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As the holiday season approaches, PHR will take a look at what teams are thankful for as the season passes the one-quarter mark. There also might be a few things your team would like down the road. We’ll examine what’s gone well in the early going and what could improve as the season rolls on for the Detroit Red Wings.

What are the Red Wings thankful for?

A competitive team.

For an entire generation of Red Wings fans, missing the playoffs wasn’t even a possibility. A 25-year-long playoff streak ended in 2017 when the team finished 33-36-13, good for seventh place in the Atlantic Divison and 16 points back. Detroit hasn’t even sniffed the postseason since, bottoming out with a 17-49-5 record in 2019-20, one of the worst seasons in NHL history. Five years without a playoff game is a rarity for the Red Wings, with only a stretch in the 70s and early 80s to really compare it to. If you were part of the PHR Live Chats for any of the past few years, you probably saw several questions from Detroit fans asking how the team can improve and make a run–right away, not in the future.

The patience that was needed is finally paying off. The Red Wings have two star rookies–three if you consider Alex Nedeljkovic at that level–several twenty-somethings playing strong hockey and a few veterans dotting the lineup to give them structure. Things are headed in the right direction for Detroit and they are finally back in the playoff hunt. Sure, it’ll be difficult to topple the top teams in the Atlantic Division, and a wild card in the Eastern Conference is going to be difficult to obtain with so much experience in the Metro, but the Red Wings aren’t at the bottom of the standings anymore–and likely won’t be for some time.

Who are the Red Wings thankful for?

Steve Yzerman.

The idea of a franchise legend leaving the powerhouse program he built for a division rival just to return home and turn around a struggling franchise is the stuff of Disney, not the NHL right? Well, maybe the league can sell Yzerman’s front office story to their new broadcasting partners if he ever completes the journey and brings the Stanley Cup back to Detroit. From the moment he was hired in 2019, the Red Wings have suddenly had a clear direction to their moves and are now poised to enter another long period of success.

He’s added dozens of prospects to the system, seemingly hit a home run with at least two of his first-round picks, and cleared the books of any long-term financial commitments. The Red Wings don’t have a single player signed past 2023-24 and that’s by design. The team can now wait for the right time to strike in free agency, extend their young talent and build the roster to become a true contender. While sometimes cap flexibility is overblown because leadership still has to make the right choices with it, Yzerman certainly has the reputation to back it up. The Red Wings aren’t there yet, but he’s taking them.

What would the Red Wings be even more thankful for?

A breakout from a pre-Yzerman draft pick.

It’s not like the Red Wings only started getting top draft picks after Yzerman arrived; in fact, they picked in the top-10 both years immediately preceding his tenure with the team. Despite that, both Michael Rasmussen (ninth overall in 2017) and Filip Zadina (sixth in 2018) have already been surpassed by Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond in terms of prospect excitement. Joseph Veleno (30th in 2018) can be added to that list of top picks that still haven’t made an impact, and Dennis Cholowski (20th in 2016) and Evgeny Svechnikov (19th in 2015) aren’t even around anymore.

If there’s one thing that could really allow the Red Wings to make a giant leap forward in a short period, it’s a big breakout for one of the highly drafted forwards. Zadina especially was supposed to be a top goal-scoring threat but has just 19 tallies at the NHL level through his first 113 games. It’s important to mention Filip Hronek, who was a second-round pick of the last administration and is a very important part of the team, but there’s honestly not a whole lot else so far from those years of postseason absences.

What should be on the Red Wings’ Holiday Wish List?

Draft picks.

One more time. One more time the Red Wings should sell at the deadline, add picks to the cupboard and build out the pipeline. The team already has seven selections in the first four rounds this year, but veteran players on expiring contracts like Robby Fabbri, Vladislav Namestnikov, Nick Leddy, Troy Stecher, Marc Staal, and Thomas Greiss could all probably net them some extra picks at the deadline.

Sure, the team wants to compete for the playoffs this season, and gutting them of their entire veteran group would make that difficult, but none of the names listed above are going to be core pieces when this team is truly competing for a Stanley Cup. If the team loads up on picks for one more year, the future–which already looks plenty bright–will shine even more.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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