Pro Hockey Rumors Originals

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include early award predictions, an assessment of Nazem Kadri’s pending free agency, surplus depth for the Kings, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back for it in last weekend’s mailbag.

NHATrang: How about some predictions for the major trophies: Hart, Norris, Vezina, Selke?

Hart Trophy – Auston Matthews (Toronto) – With there being several quality candidates, a strong finish could give someone the boost to get the award.  Right now, Matthews is having quite the strong finish to his season and has a good chance at hitting 60 goals.  That should make him the front-runner.

Norris Trophy – Roman Josi (Nashville) – There’s a very good case to make for Colorado’s Cale Makar but Josi has the better offensive numbers and whether we like it or not, that will stand out to some voters.  I think what also will help Josi is that the Predators weren’t expected to be a playoff threat while the Avs have been viewed as contenders all season.  Josi helping lead Nashville into the thick of the playoff race will carry some weight.

Vezina Trophy – Igor Shesterkin (NY Rangers) – He’s first in the NHL in save percentage (.935) and second in goals against average (2.10) and while he hasn’t had quite as high of a workload as some other starters, he has played enough that it won’t be held against him.  It’s his to lose down the stretch.

Selke Trophy – Patrice Bergeron (Boston) – He still is elite at faceoffs, his possession numbers are elite, he kills penalties, and still contributes at a top-line level.  He hasn’t won in four years but has been a finalist each time and there’s no reason to think he won’t be in the mix.  If some writers think this could be his final year as some have speculated, that could garner him a few first-place votes as well from those who may want to send him off on top.

Tim Wilson: Much has been made of the poor performance of Seattle’s goaltending tandem in their first season. I’m wondering how the Kraken’s team defensive stats such as shots allowed compare to Grubauer and Driedger’s 20/21 teams, Colorado and Florida.

Seattle is only allowing 29.1 shots per game this season, the fourth-fewest in the entire league and second-fewest in the Western Conference.  They’re trying to play a defensively responsible style knowing that they don’t have the firepower to win and have done a decent job at doing so.  For comparison, Colorado last year was tops in the league at just 25.4 while Florida was in the middle of the pack at 30.0.

A lot of their struggles simply stem from poor goaltending.  Philipp Grubauer is dead last among qualifying goaltenders at -29.9 goals saved above expected, per Moneypuck.  That’s just in 50 games too, or 0.6 extra per game on average than he should be allowing.  How many more wins would Seattle have if he was strictly middle of the pack hovering around the zero mark in that stat?  They wouldn’t be a playoff team but they wouldn’t be battling for the top draft lottery odds either.  Chris Driedger has done better at -1.1 goals saved above expected so he’s basically average on that front.

If you’re looking for some reason for optimism, Grubauer has been a good goalie for a while now and it’s not as if he somehow forgot how to play the position upon signing with Seattle.  I’m confident he’ll be a lot better next season.  Probably not enough to get them into the playoffs – they have a long way to go before that happens – but their goaltending shouldn’t be anywhere near this level in 2022-23.

Y2KAK: Early top FA predictions please!!!

This is a tough one to answer right now in that the season isn’t over yet so there’s still the potential for some fluctuation in players’ values.  Personally, I don’t dig in too much into the UFA group in terms of fits and potential contracts until we start working on our annual Top 50 UFA post which is still more than two months away.  But here’s a very quick overview of some of the bigger names.

Johnny Gaudreau – Re-signs in Calgary.  Matthew Tkachuk’s pending RFA contract will definitely make this a tough squeeze but there’s a way to make it work if they go with a lot of minimum-salary players to round out the roster.

Nazem Kadri – I’ll look at him in more detail shortly but I don’t see him staying with Colorado.

Filip Forsberg – Re-signs with Nashville.  There’s mutual interest in getting a deal done and while it’s going to contain elements the Predators don’t like (signing bonuses and trade protection), they won’t let that ultimately nix a new contract.

Penguins – Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang re-sign, Bryan Rust moves on.  Malkin winds up a little lower than his current AAV while Letang is a bit higher.  If they could find a way to move Jason Zucker without taking salary back, they might be able to take a late run at Rust as well.

Patrice Bergeron – Re-signs with Boston.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they go year-to-year from here on out, allowing for some creativity in terms of salary and performance bonus structure.

Claude Giroux – He’s not re-signing with Florida, that’s pretty much a given.  There seems to be a bit of smoke with his hometown Senators and that would make a lot of sense as that team needs an impact veteran to really round out their improving forward group.

John Klingberg – I wouldn’t be shocked if Dallas eventually worked out a deal with him but for now, I’ll say he moves on.  If Detroit is ready to flip the switch and go for it, I think they’ll be seriously in the mix at least.

Ville Husso – I pegged him to New Jersey in a hypothetical scenario in last weekend’s mailbag so I’ll stick with them.

M34: What are Kadri’s next contract terms and which team gives it to him?

Boy, did Kadri ever pick a good time for a career year.  He sits 13th in league scoring heading into today’s action and, perhaps more notably, sixth above centers.  What better way to argue that he’s capable of being a top pivot than by being among the top-scoring middlemen in the league.

That said, I don’t he’s going to be able to command the type of deal that a top-producing center typically would.  He’ll be 32 when next season starts so there will be concern about a drop-off occurring sooner than later.  His previous career high in points is 61 so it’s not as if there’s a track record of him scoring like this.  Plus, there’s his lengthy suspension history – six in total.  At this point, the suspensions are getting more severe each time to the point where his next one could be in the double-digits.  That will make some teams hesitant.

In spite of all that, he’s heading for a nice contract.  His maximum term, assuming it’s not Colorado that re-signs him, is seven years and while teams may not want to sign him for that long, that final year or two could be used to smooth out the AAV a little bit.  So I’ll say he gets the max-term with a seven-year deal with an AAV around $8MM.  I don’t think he’ll be worth that contract in the end but he plays a premium position which will help to mitigate some of the aforementioned concerns.

W H Twittle: What can the L.A. Kings be expected to do with their prospects who are mostly RDs or Cs? Cs can be moved to the wings if they can score. But moving defensemen to their wrong side is seldom a good move. Do they start looking to trade a few prospects this summer or before the draft for the players they feel will help them next year?

While it isn’t ideal to have defensemen on their wrong side, it’s quite common.  Most NHL teams have at least one blueliner on his off-side in each game.  It’s usually a lefty on the right but it’s not implausible that a righty can go on the left if need be.  I’m also not convinced it’s a logjam they need to deal with right now.  Jordan Spence could plausibly be back in the minors, leaving Drew Doughty, Matt Roy, and Sean Durzi as the three that break camp.  It’s not a situation that necessarily has to be dealt with in the near future.

As for their center situation, I agree that some can move to the wing but that is a short-term solution.  Potential impact centers are always in high demand but the Kings could run the risk of devaluing them if they stay on the wing for too long.  If they’re shifting towards win-now mode, yes, moving some of that surplus could make sense.  The question is who to move.  They probably don’t want to move Alex Turcotte while Gabriel Vilardi and Lias Andersson have seen their value dip; Rasmus Kupari has had a nice year in a depth role but his value isn’t sky-high.  If they think Turcotte still could be a top center a few years from now, that could make Quinton Byfield the one to watch for if they want to move a promising youngster for a shorter-term difference-maker.

The Duke: All-knowing and -seeing MB Crystal Ball, please weigh in on the following queries: 1. How do the SJS and Preds’ goaltending shake out next season and the next few years? 2. Career trajectories for Mssrs Zadina & Sandin (are either on new teams soon)? 3. And finally, what team does John Gibson suit up for next season? As always, much thanks.

1) Let’s look at San Jose first.  Obviously, they need to move a goalie this summer.  My guess is that it’s James Reimer as whoever is GM at that time will likely want to give the two younger goals (Adin Hill and Kaapo Kahkonen) a longer look.  They’re both 25 at the moment and in a perfect world, that’s their tandem for the foreseeable future.  They don’t have a top goalie prospect in their system and as they have several high-priced contracts for a while, they need to go with cheaper options.  A platoon costing somewhere between $6MM to $7MM combined would help so I expect those two will be given a chance to be longer-term options.

As for Nashville, theirs is a little easier to predict.  I don’t see anyone supplanting Juuse Saros as the starter as long as Saros is under contract which is through the 2024-25 season.  By then, Yaroslav Askarov should be NHL-ready.  They’ll need a bridge backup for a couple of years – someone like Reimer would make a lot of sense, to be honest – but there will be several of those available in free agency each year so they could just look to go year-to-year with low-cost options.

2) Filip Zadina – I have my doubts that he’ll be able to live up to his draft billing and become the top-line winger many felt he had the potential to be.  That said, he certainly has some offensive talent which will keep him in the league for a while.  I could see him being a player who hovers around 40-50 points most years (slightly higher at times) and bounces between the second and third lines.  That’s a pretty good career trajectory overall even if it’s a bit underwhelming relative to where he was picked.  As for being on a new team in the somewhat near future, I think there’s a good chance that happens.

Rasmus Sandin – I’ve talked about him in the past and I don’t see him being a high-end point-getter in the NHL.  To me, he projects as a secondary offensive threat, someone that will have a floor of 25 points every year and could creep up over 40 in a good year.  I also see no reason why Toronto would want to move him anytime soon, they need cost-controllable blueliners and he’ll be that for a little while yet, even through his first (and possibly second) trip through restricted free agency.

3) Unless Gibson wants out and makes it known, I have no reason to think it won’t be Anaheim.  If you go back and look at the trade market for good goalies, the word underwhelming comes to mind.  When was the last time an above average goalie that was signed for several more seasons was moved for a return that made you think ‘wow, that’s a really good trade’?  Certainly not lately.  If the options are either take an underwhelming return or hold onto Gibson, the latter path is the right way to go for them.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include what’s next for Philadelphia, Shea Weber’s contract, guessing the future of New Jersey’s goaltending, an overview of how long teams can hold the rights to a prospect, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, watch for it in next weekend’s mailbag column.

FearTheWilson: The Islanders have one of the oldest teams in the league, limited cap space, lack scoring depth, and need to sign some defensemen this summer. Is there any way out of this mess or will they be just another team who came close but couldn’t win?

Based on GM Lou Lamoriello’s recent extensions, the plan to get out of their struggles is to double down on the current core.  I get why as the core group is decent, Ilya Sorokin is a solid goalie and the way they play works in the playoffs.  With a more normal schedule that doesn’t involve a 13-game road trip to start the season that’s followed by a particularly rough COVID outbreak, they very well could have been in the mix.

They can save some money if they can find a suitable trade for Semyon Varlamov and find a cheaper backup which would allow them to put a couple million or so into their back end (or another offensive forward), that would help.  And with Noah Dobson being the only impact player that needs a new contract, they will have a bit of wiggle room to try to upgrade the roster.

In Lamoriello’s eyes at least, the solution is a couple of roster improvements and stability.  If they get that, then they should be in the Wild Card mix and as we’ve seen, if they can get into the playoffs in 2023 with the group they have and the way they play, they could win a round or two.

Black Ace57: What is the Flyers’ plan? They haven’t really established a core ready to contend and they don’t want to rebuild.

In Fletch We Trust: Thoughts on Flyers HC for next year? Is Chuck gonna stick with Yeo? Or does he (I hope) see the need to go outside the organization and find someone to help change the culture?

Let’s combine the Flyers questions.  The second part of the first question actually is the framework for their plan.  To me, it seems like they think they have enough quality core pieces in place to be a playoff-caliber team.  Make a couple of tweaks, hope for some better luck with injuries (Ryan Ellis and Sean Couturier in particular), and they could very well be in the thick of a Wild Card battle a year from now.  I know things haven’t gone well lately but I look at that team on paper and think it has the potential to be a lot more competitive than they’ve shown this season.

I’m particularly interested to see what happens in free agency.  Do they find a way to clear James van Riemsdyk’s deal off the roster and try to go after a big fish to basically replace Claude Giroux?  I suspect that is their intention and if they can find a way to add another core piece, their fortunes could turn around fairly quickly.  Not to the point of being a contender, mind you, but their approach feels like the target is simply to get to the playoffs and a few tweaks could theoretically be enough to get them there.

Speaking of tweaks, I expect this will be one of them.  I’d be surprised if Mike Yeo has the interim tag lifted at the end of the season.  He’s the holdover from Alain Vigneault’s staff and it’s not as if they’ve been better since the coaching change.  If GM Chuck Fletcher truly believes in this core, a new voice is one card that can be played to try to give this team a spark and potentially provide a culture change as well.  Having someone currently around the team on a day-to-day basis behind the bench would make it very difficult to accomplish that particular objective.

Nha Trang: San Jose: $70 million committed next year to only 17 NHL contracts, and major bucks committed to elderly, underproducing players. Buy out Vlasic? Someone else? Bribe another team to take Burns’ or Karlsson’s contract off their hands? Hold their noses and pray? What’s the solution?

A buyout of Marc-Edouard Vlasic’s contract would only push the problem down the road as the varied structure of the deal actually would yield buyout costs of roughly $4.2MM in 2024-25 and $5.2MM in 2025-26.  Sure, they’d save a fair bit on the first two seasons but that’s only a short-term fix.

They’re going to have to move a goalie – presumably either Adin Hill or James Reimer – which will save a little over $2MM in cap room but most of that will be redirected to Kaapo Kahkonen.  I suspect they will try to get out of Radim Simek’s deal and with only two years left on it, they may be able to find a taker in a swap that would bring a forward back.  Even Nick Bonino’s deal could be replaced with someone making a bit less.

There is, of course, one other wild card – Evander Kane.  Will their contract termination stand without any cap penalties or will there be some sort of retroactive penalty similar to Mike Richards and the Kings in the past?  If yes, how much will it cost?  That will help determine if there is a bigger cost-cutting move to make.

As things stand, I think they can fill out their roster and be cap-compliant next year.  They won’t be any better than they are now but it may be their only viable solution.  They’re in a tough spot and they don’t have the prospect pool to get themselves out of trouble just yet.  In the summer of 2023, Brent Burns is only down to two years left which will make him a little easier to move than he is now.  Vlasic would be down to three years and maybe a move is slightly easier then.  In the meantime, they’re going to need to just tread water.

W H Twittle: Are there teams other than Vegas and Minnesota that may be interested in Shea Weber’s contract? And why?

I don’t think either of those teams would be interested in him at all.  Minnesota’s was suggested as a hypothetical and it was quickly pointed out that it wouldn’t work for them and since then, there has been no suggestion that they’re actually interested.  As for Vegas, why would they take on four years of an LTIR contract?  Yes, it’s quite possible they try for another LTIR deal if they want to try the Evgenii Dadonov move again but there are contracts that can be acquired that are a lot shorter than four years.  It stands to reason they’d opt for one of those.  Ryan Kesler was preferable because his deal is an expiring one and they’d have minimal lingering commitments (just the rest of John Moore’s deal).

While Weber is likely on LTIR for the rest of his career (the league hasn’t signed off on that particular ruling yet which is why there hasn’t been an official announcement), there are lingering commitments.  He still counts against the 50-contract limit, his $7.857MM AAV is factored into calculations for the offseason cap (10% above the Upper Limit each year), a chunk of the salary has to be paid as the deal isn’t fully insured, and if it’s a cap-spending team that has his contract, they have an inability to bank cap space which means that any bonuses earned in a season become a carryover penalty for next year.  This is why Montreal wants to move him even though they haven’t even fully gotten clear of salary cap recapture liability yet with his deal (although the amount they’d potentially be on the hook for would be less than $1MM in total which pales in comparison to Nashville’s number).

So, who might be interested?  It sounds like there were talks with Arizona which makes a bit of sense as they have no intention of spending to the cap ceiling and would rather hang around the cap floor.  With Weber’s salary being lower than his AAV, there’s some potential for savings in total dollars being spent which, with as small of an arena as they’ll be playing out of for a little while, is notable.  (It’s the same reason that they took on Bryan Little’s contract from Winnipeg.)  But they’re about the only viable fit for that contract for now because of how much longer it runs.

MillvilleMeteor: What would a trade package look like for the Ducks to trade up and grab Shane Wright at the number one spot in the draft?

More than they should be willing to pay.  Considering Wright is projected to be an impact center, Trevor Zegras or Mason McTavish would have to be the focal point of the offer with Anaheim also needing to part with their first-rounder which is hovering around 10th overall at the moment.  Considering the almost always exorbitant asking price for a first-overall selection (which is why they basically never move), there’s probably another piece that would need to be involved as well in the range of a late first or early second-rounder or an equivalent prospect.

There’s a high sticker shock with a number one pick and frankly, it’s not one anyone should really be willing to pay this year.  Wright’s going to be a very good NHL center but he’s not a franchise player, not compared to the top picks in the class of 2023.  If you’re going to make the big move and cash in some of those younger assets, it needs to be for someone that you can really build around.  I’m not sure Wright is that caliber of player.

With the moves they’ve recently made, Anaheim is in a spot where they need to stay on the course that they’re on.  Make these extra picks they’ve acquired and continue to develop their young core.  In a year or two when their top youngsters are further along in their development, then they can look towards some win-now pieces.  But in terms of pick or prospect consolidation, I don’t think that’s the route the Ducks should be taking.

SpeakOfTheDevil: Who are the Devils’ 1A and 1B goalies next year? Assuming Bernier is done and Blackwood gets traded.

I’m not convinced Mackenzie Blackwood is ultimately dealt but I’ll play along with the premise and pick a new tandem.  This isn’t a great UFA year in terms of starters.  Darcy Kuemper is available but I don’t think he’d look at New Jersey as a viable option unless they vastly overpaid in salary.  Marc-Andre Fleury probably isn’t going there and Jack Campbell looks like a bit of a risk now.  That leaves Ville Husso who, quite frankly, is also a bit of a risk given his limited track record.  That should limit his market to an extent where if the Devils were willing to take the plunge on a medium-term contract in the $4MM range, that might be enough to get him.

But with Husso’s limited track record, they’d need a fairly proven platoon partner and that’s not coming from free agency.  Let’s turn to the trade front then.  Jeremy Swayman’s season with Boston could be enough to get them to move on from Linus Ullmark’s contract (three years, $5MM AAV left after this season) as long as they get a decent goalie in return.  Perhaps someone like Blackwood who could look better behind the back end of the Bruins?  That would save them some short-term money (which is important with Patrice Bergeron up this summer and David Pastrnak next offseason) while giving them a serviceable second option for Swayman while Ullmark would give New Jersey a more proven partner for Husso.

The combined AAV for the tandem would be on the higher side compared to other teams but the Devils have ample cap space at their disposal and can afford it.  An Ullmark-Husso tandem would certainly be an upgrade on what they have now with short enough commitments in terms of the length of the contracts to not block someone like Nico Daws if he shows he’s ready for full-time NHL duty down the road.

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It has certainly been an eventful past few weeks around the NHL with a very busy trade deadline plus a rare trade that was approved and later invalidated by the league.  On top of that, the push for the playoffs is heating up with battles for seeding in the Eastern Conference and several spots up for grabs in the very tight Western Conference.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another edition of the PHR Mailbag.  If you missed the last one, it was broken into two parts.  The first one focused on several trade deadline scenarios while the second looked at how St. Louis can afford to keep pending UFA Ville Husso, the future of Winnipeg’s core forward group, and much more.

You can submit a question by using #PHRMailbag on Twitter or by leaving a comment down below. The mailbag will run on the weekend.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include Ville Husso’s future with St. Louis, whether or not it’s time for Winnipeg to shake up their core, building up Detroit’s back end, and much more.  If your question doesn’t appear here, check back in last weekend’s mailbag.

@JoeBad34TD: Sabres: It’s time to move on from Mittelstadt, Miller, Eakin, and Olofsson. Miller and Eakin are vets that may get you some later picks.  Mittelstadt and Olofsson are young but not the right fit for this team’s future. Do you see a trade market for these players and at what value?

I agree with you on the assessment of Cody Eakin and Colin Miller – both are candidates to be moved for draft picks so there’s really nothing more to say about those two.

As for the two younger players, I don’t think there’s a great market for Casey Mittelstadt right now.  He has struggled since his rookie season and hasn’t been healthy all that much this year.  With two more years left on his deal at $2.5MM per, Buffalo would be selling low if they moved him.  They’re not in a position where they should be selling low so holding onto him is the smarter play from a valuation standpoint; it’s not as if his value can get much lower than it would be right now so why not hold onto him, make some moves to bolster the roster over the summer, and see how he fits in with the new-look team?  Maybe there’s a better fit and if that doesn’t happen, maybe he produces a bit more to up his trade value.

Then there’s Victor Olofsson.  I tend to agree that he’s not a great fit for Buffalo moving forward but again, they’re not exactly selling high on him either.  He has struggled this year and has just 10 goals in 49 games with a $3.25MM qualifying offer looming large this summer.  If they know that they don’t want to pay that, then it’s a case of taking what you can get now which might be a mid-round pick if the Sabres retain on the contract.  If GM Kevyn Adams is leaning towards tendering that offer though, they might have a shot at a swap of underachieving wingers in the summer.  It’s not going to be an overly exciting return, however.

Y2KAK: What are reasonable moves the Islanders make at the trade deadline?

While they won’t be able to get much for their rentals (headlined by winger Cal Clutterbuck), GM Lou Lamoriello would be wise to try to get a couple of draft picks through moving some of them.  They haven’t had more than six selections over the last three years and only have five for this summer’s draft so getting closer to a full complement of picks would be a reasonable move.

I honestly don’t expect a whole lot more from them.  This is a team that has been good enough to make some decent playoff runs lately so I think Lamoriello will look at this and feel that they could be back in the thick of things next season when they don’t have a massive road trip, get hit hard by positive COVID tests, and have a bunch of injuries.  With that in mind, I don’t know how much he really wants to change things.

One move I could see them looking into is trading Semyon Varlamov.  Ilya Sorokin is clearly their goalie of the present and while they want someone who will probably play a bit more than an average backup behind him, that player doesn’t need to cost $5MM like Varlamov does.  He’s signed for next season and with the trade market being relatively thin in terms of impact goalies available, the 33-year-old could be a candidate to be moved.  It might have to be in the summer but a deadline trade can’t be ruled out either.

bighiggy: With the emergence of Husso, do the Blues look to sign Husso so he doesn’t depart at the end of the season, and then try to trade Binnington? Or let Husso walk and hope Binnington plays better?

The Blues would like to keep Husso and in a perfect world, they find a way to keep both.  Husso is a fascinating UFA case this summer.  He’s having a great year (2.24 GAA, .928 SV% in 24 games) but he only has 41 career NHL appearances under his belt.  Is that enough to land him top dollar on the open market?  Probably not.  But could he land something similar to Alex Nedeljkovic’s deal with Detroit – two years, $3MM AAV?  That wouldn’t shock me.

Now with that estimate, can they afford to keep Husso?  I think they can.  If they opt to let David Perron walk in free agency and fill his spot with someone like Jake Neighbours who is still on his cheap entry-level deal, that might be enough of a shuffle in terms of allocating cap dollars to make it work if they go with low-cost pieces to round out the roster as they’re likely to do.  If they don’t want to do that, then I suspect Husso would walk and Binnington would enter next season as the undisputed starter as if they can’t/won’t pay Husso in the $3MM range, they’re not getting someone that can push for the starting job for less than that.  With Binnington’s struggles, it’s hard to see a viable scenario where he leaves and Husso becomes the starter.

selanne76: Should the Jets make a move to shake up their leadership group? If so, who goes where and what should be the return?

I have to admit, I really like Winnipeg’s core group.  It’s a good mix of veterans and younger players and they’re all capable of scoring.  Breaking that up is risky.  But this core has been together for a while and hasn’t gotten it done in terms of playoff success and even getting to the postseason this year is going to be tough.

Personally, I’d give them one more opportunity next season.  Andrew Copp probably won’t be back and if Paul Stastny departs as well, that gives the Jets some money to work with to reshape the bottom six.  I’d like to see their depth improved as that has been an issue this year; going with low-cost players because they make the minimum or close to it makes the cap work but puts a lot of extra pressure on that top group.

I also could see a coaching change happening.  With Paul Maurice leaving midseason, they were in a tough spot and elevating Dave Lowry to the interim role was the logical choice.  But if they miss the playoffs, it’s an opportunity to bring a new voice and system in; perhaps that gives them the spark they were missing.

If they decided to make a change to really shake it up, my guess would be that Nikolaj Ehlers would be the one to go.  It’s hard to move Mark Scheifele when they don’t have a sure-fire replacement in the system (I like Cole Perfetti as a winger more than a center from a long-term standpoint) and Pierre-Luc Dubois isn’t a true number one and might not have the trade value he did when Winnipeg got him with now two fewer years of team control.  Blake Wheeler won’t bring back much with his age and contract and Kyle Connor isn’t going anywhere.

As for what Ehlers could bring back, it’d all depend on what they’d be doing.  If they were doing a rebuild, a first-rounder and a top prospect would be the key elements of a return.  If it’s a core shakeup, it’d be another top-six winger that’s signed or at least under team control for as long as Ehlers is signed for (through 2024-25).

2012orioles: Even if the Capitals move Samsonov, what value does he bring being an RFA after the season?

Not as much as you might think at first glance.  When was the last time a goaltender was traded in a move that made anyone think ‘wow, that’s a big price to pay’?  It doesn’t happen very often and with the year he’s having, he’s probably not going to buck the trend.

I think Ilya Samsonov can be a starter in the NHL or at least a 1A part of a platoon.  He’s not going to be able to command that type of return with a save percentage that’s just above .900 though, nor is he going to be able to land the type of contract that’s commensurate with that level of a player (high-$3MM range for a 1A, considerably more for a starter) this summer.  Another one-year, prove it type of deal is probably coming.

That actually hurts Samsonov’s trade value a little bit in my eyes.  He has two years of team control left but a one-year deal this summer takes him to a spot where he can opt for arbitration next summer and head to unrestricted free agency in his prime.  The Rangers will likely be moving Alexandar Georgiev for cap reasons this summer, another pending RFA who has had similar hot and cold spells in the NHL and that also doesn’t help Washington’s cause.

When I first saw this question, the word that immediately came to mind in terms of value was underwhelming.  Regardless of whether it’s a futures-based trade or he’s moved for a veteran, any return for Samsonov (if he winds up being traded) is going to yield an underwhelming return.

Detroit_SP: How do the Red Wings address the left side of the defense? They have given up over 6 GAA in the recent stretch and it’s mostly due to left side deficiencies (Leddy, DeKeyser, etc.)

I don’t see a lot of top two D-men in FA that fit with the Red Wings timeline.

Can they swing for Chychrun without giving up Seider, Edvinsson, or Raymond? I imagine Berggren would be going the other way, as unfortunate as that would be. Combination involving him and then from Wallinder, Sebrango, McIsaac, Johannson, Mazur, picks? I’d prefer to avoid 2023 picks given the draft prowess projected.

Target a different defender with term remaining?

Let’s talk about Chychrun first.  The asking price is extremely high and Arizona has no reason to trade him for anything less than a king’s ransom at this point.  The price to be paid is going to hurt so no, a package headlined by a 2018 second-round pick in winger Jonatan Berggren isn’t going to work.  I don’t think they’d need to move Moritz Seider or Lucas Raymond but I imagine the Coyotes would be insisting on Simon Edvinsson as part of the deal and then adding pieces (including Berggren potentially) from there.

I don’t think this is the right time for them to try to fill a top-two spot on the back end.  Detroit isn’t about to jump from missing the playoffs for the sixth year in a row to a contender overnight.  GM Steve Yzerman is all about building slowly so it stands to reason that the shift towards being a playoff-bound team is going to be gradual, not dramatic.  It wouldn’t be shocking to see them give Edvinsson some NHL time next season (he’s signed with Frolunda but as he was a first-round pick, Detroit can supersede that contract).

Out of the pending free agents, Hampus Lindholm is one that would really fit well for the Red Wings if they wanted to make a big splash and while he’s not a big point-getter, he’s a legitimate top-pairing player.  That’s why Anaheim wants to re-sign him and why the trade market for rental defenders is basically at a standstill at this point.  I wouldn’t be shocked if Marc Staal returns either while another depth piece can be added as well through free agency.

Could Yzerman trade his way towards filling some of those holes?  Sure.  But why move those assets out in what will probably be a transitional year as they look to get back into the playoff picture?  Add some pieces in free agency, get a little better, assess where things stand, and then use some picks and prospects as trade currency to add when they’re more ready to go for it.  As a patient GM with both Tampa Bay and now Detroit, that’s the route I expect him to take.

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