Ryan Shea Is Going To Get A Big Raise This Summer

Saying that Penguins defenseman Ryan Shea is having a career year would be a massive understatement. The 28-year-old has two goals and 14 assists in 41 games, is a +15, and averages over 19 minutes a night.

While plus/minus is a flawed statistic, it is eye-opening to see it that high. Shea has played up and down the Penguins’ defense this season, pairing with the likes of Kris Letang, Jack St. Ivany, Harrison Brunicke, and Parker Wotherspoon. No disrespect to any of those players, but St. Ivany has been a tweener to this point in his career, Brunicke is back playing in the World Juniors, and Letang has been a mess defensively for most of the year, making the +15 all the more impressive.

Shea spent much of the season paired with Letang, but in the last week, Shea and St. Ivany have formed an effective shutdown pairing for the Penguins, coinciding with an intense stretch of play for the team. Shea’s adaptability and offensive emergence couldn’t have come at a better time for the three-year NHL pro, as he is slated to be an unrestricted free agent on July 1 and is set to earn a healthy raise from the $900K he is making this year.

Shea signed that one-year deal last March, and it seemed like an odd bit of business for the Penguins at the time, as they were busy selling off at the trade deadline and Shea was a candidate to be moved. Pittsburgh general manager Kyle Dubas clearly saw something he liked in Shea’s game and gave him a raise and guaranteed NHL money for this season in an extension that has been a windfall for Pittsburgh at a time when they needed a left-handed defenseman to step up and fill a massive weakness.

Not only did Shea step up, but he also effectively became the type of player Pittsburgh needed to acquire if they wanted to contend for a playoff spot, which may or may not have been the plan. Regardless of the intentions, Pittsburgh is in the playoff hunt, and Shea has been a massive part of that.

So, what is the plan for Shea now? That is the million-dollar question, or in Shea’s case, the multi-million-dollar question.

At the beginning of the season, AFP Analytics projected a one-year deal worth $1.075MM for Shea next season. That number is obviously going to be different now, but it’s fair to wonder how different it will be.

Shea has a lot working in his favor in his contract negotiations. He is still relatively young, doesn’t have a lot of NHL mileage on his body, and capable defensemen are always in demand.

Just look at one of his predecessors as Letang’s partner, Brian Dumoulin, who is much older and worn down, and who got three years and $12MM as a UFA last summer. On the flip side, Shea doesn’t have a long NHL resume, having played 111 games and entering his third season.

He also doesn’t have a track record as an impact defender outside this year. Shea had pedestrian results last season in 39 games, posting two goals and three assists, but he was leaned on heavily defensively. He didn’t have too many opportunities to chip in offensively.

His free agency is going to get interesting over the next two months, particularly if the Penguins stay in contention for a playoff spot and opt to hold onto him. Pittsburgh gave Shea his NHL opportunity, signing him to NHL money before he ever played an NHL game, demonstrating faith in his ability to become an NHL defenseman.

That 2023 signing showed absolute trust from Dubas and the Penguins, and it makes one wonder whether Shea will reward the team with a discount in negotiations. There is also a precise fit for both Shea and the team.

He fills a need well, and even on an extension, he won’t cost more than a potential replacement would in free agency or a trade. That said, there is always a risk in signing a one-hit wonder, as his play could be a mirage, and you end up locked in long-term with a player who can’t cut it in the NHL.

If the Penguins fall out of contention, on the other hand, it could change the complexion of Shea’s future, particularly if they deal him to a different team. Therein lies the risk for Shea, because if he gets traded elsewhere and falls flat on his face, it would pretty much tank his prospects for a long-term deal on the open market. But if he gets moved and succeeds, it removes a significant question mark surrounding him.

It remains to be seen whether Pittsburgh will even deal Shea if they fall out of contention. They didn’t last year, when Shea was more of an unknown, and it would seem silly to trade him now, when you have a better idea of what he can be in the NHL.

Pittsburgh might just sign him even if they fall out of contention, because they have the cap space and know what they have in Shea. They also have a ton of other pending UFA defensemen who don’t figure to be part of their future, and they could move those instead.

What could Shea be looking at in terms of a contract extension? It’s hard to predict, given the current economic climate.

Still, there are a couple of comparables, such as the Flyers’ Emil Andrae and the Flames’ Jake Bean. AFP Analytics has Bean pegged for a two-year deal worth $2.25MM per season, while Andrae is projected at $1.7MM AAV on a two-year deal. Declan Chisholm of the Capitals is another decent comparison in terms of career numbers. He signed his contract extension as an RFA, inking a two-year deal worth $1.6MM annually.

The issue with the Chisholm comparison is that he was an RFA, while Shea is unrestricted. However, using the framework of all the aforementioned contracts, it seems likely that Shea is headed for a two-year deal, possibly three, at a rate that probably tops the Bean projection.

However, this is the NHL, and it wouldn’t be shocking to see Shea sign a four-year deal worth $3MM or more annually, given the surging salary cap and teams’ desperation for reliable defenseman.

Image courtesy of Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.