PHR Mailbag

The mailbag was quite full this week, so much so that we’re going to run another one next week with some of the questions that aren’t discussed here so if your question wasn’t covered here, watch for it next weekend.  Topics this week include the Oilers, deadline plans for the Red Wings, Rangers, Penguins, and the Capitals, plus the recent struggles of William Nylander and the Maple Leafs.

sixfootnineballerina: If you were in charge of the Oilers and your job wasn’t in jeopardy, what moves would you make to turn the team into a legitimate contender (either now or in the future)?

For starters, I’d give up on the current season.  Can Edmonton sneak into a playoff spot with some additions?  Sure.  Should they mortgage more of their future in order to accomplish that?  I don’t think so which means I’d be going the opposite way Peter Chiarelli appears to be.  That would also mean a coaching change at the end of the year.

Teams are looking for goaltending right now and both Cam Talbot and Mikko Koskinen should have some value.  I’d look to move at least one if not both of them as I’m not sure either is worth committing a long-term deal to.  In the summer, I’d turn to the free agent market.  Sergei Bobrovsky is probably off the table (too expensive) but I think Semyon Varlamov would represent an upgrade over what they’ve had in recent years.  There’s still some volatility in his play but I think he’s a bit under the radar and could be a serviceable starter at a reasonable AAV for a few more years.

The signing bonus-laden structure of Milan Lucic’s deal makes a buyout extremely unrealistic.  Instead, I offer to retain 50% of his contract and take back the cheapest non-bonus-laden bad contract I can get and buy that deal out instead.  I know Lucic has four years left but at a $3MM AAV with the opportunity to offload a bad contract as well, there should be a taker or two and from Edmonton’s perspective, some savings is better than no savings.

In terms of other trades, I’d be open to anything not involving Connor McDavid.  Someone like Ryan Nugent-Hopkins would fetch a sizable return and as things stand, it’s not likely they’ll be able to afford him when his contract is up so they should cash in now while his value is maximized.  Finding ways to add long-term payroll flexibility would be a priority in any move because the one-two punch of McDavid and Leon Draisaitl (given his deal, I don’t think his trade market would be substantial) is pricey no matter how much the cap goes up.

The way free agency has gone lately, the really rich contracts that are bad from the minute they’re signed are decreasing.  As teams give their younger players more money earlier and earlier, the UFA class starts to become more appealing as some good players will eventually get squeezed out.  There can be decent value deals to be had there and the opportunity to play with someone like McDavid is a feather in Edmonton’s cap.

Long story short, sell what you can to free up some long-term cap room and add some young assets to build around McDavid and Draisaitl.  Add another defenseman or two in the draft.  From there, fill some holes on the open market with players that could view Edmonton as an ideal ‘pillow contract’ spot – use McDavid as the marketing tool and there will be takers.  It doesn’t sound pretty and it’s not a quick fix but there isn’t one to be made here.

bucs_fan: Am I crazy to think the Penguins should NOT make a trade? Chemistry seems great right now.

heather_vono: What team is the best fit for Brassard? Because it obviously isn’t the Pens. What’s the potential return?

The idea of keeping the Penguins intact makes some sense.  This is a pretty good group and they’ve had extended playoff success in the past.  If Jim Rutherford decided to stand pat, I think it would certainly be defensible.

But let’s face it.  This is Rutherford we’re talking about here and he likes to bring in fresh blood.  Brassard seems highly likely to go as he’s not fitting in as their third line center.  The problem here is that most of the contending teams would have him in that role as well and if he can’t play that in Pittsburgh, he may not be able to elsewhere.

Still, there should be some interest.  Columbus is known to have inquired and given their situation down the middle, he could be a second liner for them.  If Colorado decides to add a rental, Brassard makes plenty of sense (but if they keep struggling, the odds of them going this route drop).  With Jason Spezza on the wing and Martin Hanzal perpetually injured, there’s a top-six spot for Brassard there for now.  If a team thinks he can play a third line role, Boston, Winnipeg, and Anaheim present as decent fits.  San Jose has kicked the tires as well.

As for a return, it’s going to be more of a help-now package instead of a futures-based one.  They’ll want a center back that can at least somewhat step into Brassard’s role.  In a perfect world, they save a bit of cap room along the way as well.  A draft pick or prospect would balance out the trade and I could see that asset being flipped for a rental player to supplement their depth.

ThePriceWasRight: Do you see the recent Toronto slump resulting in an earlier move by Kyle Dubas?

I don’t think it really moves the needle too much in either direction.  I know Montreal and Buffalo are still within striking distance of a top-three spot in the Atlantic (the Canadiens are tied for third heading into today’s action though everyone in the playoff hunt has games in hand) but I expect Toronto and Boston will be meeting up in the first round as the two and three seeds.  Beyond jockeying for home ice advantage over the Bruins, there isn’t a lot to play for over the next ten weeks or so.  A little dip like this during that stretch wouldn’t concern me too much if I was Dubas.

With that in mind, I don’t think there’s a need for the Maple Leafs to make an early trade.  Their need for help on the back end is well-known and the rough patch they had doesn’t really change that.  At this point, Dubas just needs to wait for the right move.  If it comes now, make it now but if not, I suspect they’ll wait it out as they have the luxury to be patient here.

tigers22: Jimmy Howard to San Jose for two 2’s. Nyquist to Boston for a 1 and 3. Jensen to Edmonton for a 2nd. What are the odds Ken Holland can pull this off?

As a package?  I’d say extremely low.  Let’s look at each of these individually.

The believed asking price for Howard is a first rounder and while I don’t think they’ll get that, I can’t see a team jumping at a pair of seconds either.  One second rounder plus another lesser asset is probably the ceiling here.  On top of that, I still expect him to sign a contract extension between now and the deadline.  He hasn’t exactly hidden his desire to stick around.

As for Gustav Nyquist, it all depends on how many teams are willing to move a number one pick.  If Ottawa can’t re-sign them, Matt Duchene and Mark Stone should yield one in return.  Considering he plays a premium position, Kevin Hayes might as well.  If Jeff Skinner doesn’t sign an extension, does Buffalo move him?  If so, there’s another first rounder gone.  If some of those players re-sign, then perhaps Nyquist becomes part of that top tier of tradeable rentals.  Even at that though, do players with term start to yield firsts instead?  There will probably be one or two of those moves as well.  I like Nyquist but it’s hard to see him bringing back a first from anyone.

Nick Jensen’s an interesting case.  On the one hand, he’s making less than $1MM while averaging over 20 minutes a night.  On the other, he was believed to be available just before the start of the season when it looked like Detroit might have a logjam on the back end.  (Then everyone went and got hurt and that was the end of that idea.)  Does a few good months take his value from negligible to a fairly high draft pick?  I think it’s more likely he falls in the third or fourth round range if he doesn’t re-sign, a scenario I wouldn’t rule out at this point.

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The halfway point of the season has come and gone but aside from a few teams, there hasn’t been a whole lot of separation in the standings as several squads are still within striking distance of a Wild Card spot.  That’s likely going to have an impact on the trade front as we get closer to the February 25th trade deadline as teams decide whether to add a piece or two to try to sneak in or try to sell and help their draft lottery odds.

With that in mind, it’s time to run another mailbag to take your questions on the upcoming trade deadline and other goings-on around the NHL.  I’ll be answering your queries this coming weekend.  You can submit your question on Twitter by including #PHRMailbag or leave a comment down below.

If you need to catch up on our last mailbag which ran in mid-December, you can do so by clicking here.  Topics included who the Blackhawks may be looking to sell, trade targets for Carolina, the situation in St. Louis, and much more.

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include the Blackhawks’ struggles, Boston’s trade chips, what the Senators should do in the coming months, what Carolina should be targeting in a trade, Marc-Andre Fleury’s workload, trade speculation involving Alex Pietrangelo and Vladimir Tarasenko, the World Juniors, and Philadelphia’s plans under Chuck Fletcher.

shelteredsoxfan: How much worse do you think it gets for the Blackhawks before it gets better?

@Adam407: It seems like a given that the Blackhawks will be sellers at the deadline and maybe before that. Any idea who they might be able to move and what they could expect to receive in return?

I have a hunch that Stan Bowman hasn’t given up on this core just yet.  They’re going to have some money to spend and there has already been one report (from John Dietz of the Daily Herald) that they’re planning to target winger Artemi Panarin this summer and march themselves back into cap purgatory in the process.  If they do indeed do that, they won’t be anywhere near as bad next season so the short-term pain won’t be prolonged too badly.  Even if they do that though, their days of contention appear to be numbered but a big splash like that could get them a lot closer to the playoff picture.

With that in mind, shipping out expiring contracts will be the name of the game once again.  Marcus Kruger could help someone as a fourth line center and could fetch a mid-round pick.  If someone wants Brandon Davidson for defensive depth, he could probably yield a late pick.  Depending on how Cam Ward plays these next few months, perhaps a contender may want him for injury insurance.

Beyond that, moving out Artem Anisimov and the final two years of his deal will probably be at the top of the priority list.  Doing so would ideally free up some extra room to take that run at Panarin (or another impact player) and emphasize their commitment to Dylan Strome as their number two center.  His value isn’t what it once was but Anisimov is still a capable middle-six player and should be worth a roster player (to help offset some money) plus a good prospect or a second-rounder.

case7187: Why are the B’s finding it so hard to trade for help? They have a lot of good quality youngsters but there seems to be nothing out there.

I don’t think it’s a case of there being nothing out there but rather GM Don Sweeney (rightfully) being very careful.  There’s a reason young roster players aren’t dealt very often.  They’re cap-efficient and there are often differences as to what the trading and acquiring team see his upside as.  Unless the internal valuation on both sides line up, a move isn’t going to happen.

Let’s take Danton Heinen for an example.  What is his level of upside?  Is he a legitimate top-six forward like the one that put up 38 points in the first 48 games last season?  Or is he the player that has notched just 18 points in 67 games (playoffs included) since then?  The Bruins are going to try to sell him as the former but teams are understandably going to be hesitant given his struggles since February.  I doubt there are other teams that value him as highly as Boston goes which makes a trade trickier.

The questions are similar with the likes of Anders Bjork, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, and Ryan Donato.  All three have shown legitimate NHL upside.  They’ve also shown that there is a chance that they don’t live up to that upside as their play has been inconsistent so far.  Sweeney’s valuation of his own players is probably higher than those of his managerial counterparts so until something changes (one of those players steps up, the team lowers their expectations on one of them, or injuries force someone’s hand), it’s probably going to take some time for a trade to get done.

ThePriceWasRight: Just when you think things can’t get worse for the Sens, Duchene gets hurt.

Play GM, what should this team be doing in the next 2-3 months? Plenty of moveable pieces, no clear indication or direction what they plan to do (though they’ve clearly sold low on every player they’ve traded since Brassard).

Sell, sell, sell.  Ottawa has done well to hang around the postseason hunt so far but this is not a team that’s going to be a contender.  Their defense corps is a patchwork group at best and I have doubts that they’ll be able to get Matt Duchene and Mark Stone locked up long-term.  They might get one but it’s hard to see them doing what it takes (which would likely include significant signing bonuses) to get both signed.

As you note, they have quite a few players that could be dealt with some value – on top of those two, Ryan Dzingel is an expiring deal and it will be easier to move Zack Smith closer to the deadline than it was when they waived him in the preseason.  If Jean-Gabriel Pageau plays well upon returning, there will be a market for him as well.

The Sens have an opportunity to really restock their prospect and pick cupboards which is even more important considering they don’t have their first-round pick this season.  Even if they hang around a Wild Card spot for a couple more months, the better move long-term is to sell.

acarneglia: With the Hurricanes looking for a top 6 forward, where do they look? Does a guy like Kevin Hayes or Mats Zuccarello make sense from the division rival Rangers? Do they go for an impending FA like Matt Duchene? Do they target a Kings player?

While Hayes and Zuccarello make some sense and would certainly help, I’m not sure a pending unrestricted free agent is the way to go.  I think Carolina is more than one notable forward away from really getting back into the playoff picture and the odds of them getting multiple impact players is probably low.  I think their goal should be to add a younger (or at least someone under team control for a couple of years) option that can be part of the core alongside the likes of Sebastian Aho, Andrei Svechnikov, Martin Necas, and others over picking up some short-term help in a rental.

In a previous mailbag, I suggested Tyler Toffoli as a possible fallback option for Carolina if they weren’t able to land William Nylander.  He’s a little older (26) than I think they’d like but he’s signed through next season and while he’s struggling this year, he does have a track record of production.  Pierre LeBrun of TSN and The Athletic brought up Kasperi Kapanen as someone they’ve discussed internally and that’s more of the type of forward I think they should be trying to get even though the acquisition cost will certainly be higher.

vegasloveforthebills: Fleury is currently on pace for 70 games played. Do you think it’s at least partly because Vegas has lost confidence in Subban, and if so, are they in on a Howard or Anderson?

I don’t think it’s partly because of that reason – I believe it’s primarily because of that reason.  Asking any goalie to play upwards of 70 games is a tough ask nowadays.  Asking a 34-year-old with a substantial injury history isn’t something a team does willingly.  They’re doing it because they feel they have to.

With that in mind, it wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprising to see them try to upgrade on Malcolm Subban between now and the trade deadline.  (I also thought they would have done that last year, for what it’s worth.)  I don’t think Craig Anderson is an ideal target since he has another year left on his deal at $4.75MM and that’s too much for a backup.  Howard could be a target but the asking price appears to be quite high and there is believed to be mutual interest in an extension.

A goalie that I could see being on their radar is Carolina’s Petr Mrazek.  I can’t see them willingly carrying all three goalies the rest of the way and he’s on a manageable $1.5MM deal this season.  He’d represent an upgrade on Subban and if he fared well, he’s young enough (he’ll turn 27 just before the deadline) that he could be a realistic option for them next year and beyond as well.

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Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include trade candidates for the Rangers, Jake Allen’s future in St. Louis, the top players outside of North America, a notable player that could soon be on the move, and what Vancouver should do with a pair of veteran defensemen.

acarneglia: Who are the Rangers most likely trade candidates, partners, and returns?

Hayes stands out as one that’s likely to go.  They have Mika Zibanejad signed through 2021-22 and youngsters Filip Chytil and Lias Andersson both appear to be part of the long-term future as does Brett Howden so there isn’t going to be room for Hayes down the road.  Winger Mats Zuccarello, another pending UFA, is probably one that’s going to move unless they decide they want to hand him a long-term extension.  In terms of non-rentals, winger Vladislav Namestnikov is already out there but with his $4MM price tag, he’s not as much of a guarantee to move.  I wonder about winger Jimmy Vesey – he’s clearly a secondary option in New York so would a contending team value him a little more?

In terms of potential partners, that’s a little more difficult to lock down so early in the season.  Contending teams are going to want Hayes and Zuccarello but for the most part, those teams haven’t separated themselves from the pack yet.  Those trades won’t likely happen until closer to the trade deadline for salary cap purposes.  Namestnikov would likely be coveted by teams that have a player in a similar situation to swap.  This wouldn’t be limited to contenders; in fact, a non-playoff team hoping that a change of scenery may make the most sense.  I think he could be a fit in Carolina, who is known to be looking to add a forward that can play in the top-six although they don’t really have a comparable contract to send back.  As for Vesey, his market would be larger – contending teams would want him to upgrade their third line scoring while a non-contender may want to take a chance in the hope that a larger role could lead to a breakout.

As for returns, Hayes doesn’t have the track record like Paul Stastny does but I think a comparable return (a first-rounder, prospect, and a conditional mid-round pick) is something they can push for.  While Zuccarello is more proven, wingers are easier to get than impact centers so his return should be lower, potentially in a second rounder plus a decent prospect range.  A return for Namestnikov would be negligible given his struggles – either a comparable contract or a mid-to-late pick if the acquiring is assuming the contract outright.  As for Vesey, his return could go a couple of different ways – a quality prospect if the Rangers want someone closer to playing now or if they want to go the draft pick route, I could see the asking price being a second rounder or a lesser pick plus a prospect.

Paul Heyman: Is it time the Blues move on from Jake Allen? If so what could they possibly get in a trade?

If St. Louis believes that they have a good enough team that they can win with adequate-to-average goaltending, I’d say no.  Allen’s contract is towards the lower end of the pay scale for starting goalies and can use some of those savings relative to a better but more expensive starter to add to their roster.

However, if they make the determination that they need their goalie to steal a few more games along the way, then I’d say they should be looking to move him.  Allen is who he is at this point; I don’t think there’s any hidden upside in his game remaining.

The Blues are a team that has had goaltending questions for a while so I’d be inclined to look for an upgrade even if it further tightens their cap space.  However, there are two factors that would work against them here.  First, quality starting goalies don’t get moved in-season very often and aside from Sergei Bobrovsky as a rental, that’s probably not going to change.  The second is their cap situation.  St. Louis doesn’t have a lot of extra cap room so on top of moving Allen out in a trade, they’d also probably have to include a roster player of some consequence.  That certainly would lessen the odds of a move over the next few months.

In a perfect world, I’d suggest that Allen and whichever roster player gets moved with him yields another starter, one that’s a bit more reliable.  A deal like that would make sense to do around the draft given the current factors working against them.  Between the newcomer and Ville Husso ideally upgrading the number two spot, they’d be in better shape for 2019-20.  But for 2018-19, I think they’re going to go with what they have, even if they’ve already decided to pursue an upgrade in the offseason.

ThePriceWasRight: Top 3 fav retro jerseys? Vancouver Skate blade jerseys? Anaheim Mighty Ducks? North Stars?

I have to admit, I’m not a big jersey aficionado, especially when it comes to retro ones so chances are there are probably some good ones I’m not thinking of.  I liked the simpler variation of the Vancouver skate blade one that was used in the early 1990s so I’d have that on there.  New Jersey’s red/green combo in the 1980s was also really nice and I find green to be underused in uniform colors.  Washington’s blue set in the late 1990s wasn’t the most popular but I always liked those – it’s a different shade of blue than most uniforms have.  I can’t qualify a jersey from just two seasons as ‘retro’ but the Kings’ 50th anniversary gray sweater was another one I really liked – another very underused color among uniforms.

Robert H: Who are the three or four best players currently not in the NHL or AHL?

The KHL is the place to look here.  I’ll give you two sets of players, prospects and veterans.

For the prospects, Wild winger Kirill Kaprizov has emerged as a high-quality player.  He played extremely well at the Olympics while he isn’t among the top scorers in the league, there is legitimate optimism about his NHL upside.  Unfortunately for Minnesota, he’s signed in the KHL through next season although that hasn’t stopped GM Paul Fenton from starting his sales pitch for 2020-21 already.  The Golden Knights’ acquisition of winger Nikita Gusev largely went under the radar at the time given all of the hype around the expansion draft but he has been a high-end scorer for several years now.  Vegas will undoubtedly be looking to bring him across the pond for next year.  I’m a fan of Islanders goalie prospect Ilya Sorokin and Rangers netminder Igor Shestyorkin and I believe both have legitimate NHL upside.  The Islanders will have to wait at least one more year for Sorokin but the Rangers could make a push to bring Shestyorkin over for next season.

In terms of veterans, long-time Red Wings center Pavel Datsyuk is still going strong and is a core player for SKA St. Petersburg.  Nigel Dawes was never a productive player in the NHL but the winger has emerged as a star in that league, routinely playing near or beating a point-per-game mark.   Winger Sergei Mozyakin never went to the NHL after being a draft pick of Columbus back in 2002 but he has been an elite KHL player for a long time.

I’ll toss in one non-KHL player.  Swiss goalie Leonardo Genoni is a little undersized but has been a top-flight player in the NLA for a decade and I’m surprised he’s never even attempted to land an NHL job.  His current contract expires at the end of the season but he already inked a five-year deal with his new team for 2019-20 and beyond already.

Dylan: Who will be the first big-name player to be traded this season, and to where?

I think many would expect William Nylander to be dealt very soon but I still think a contract eventually gets worked out with Toronto so I’ll go with someone else.

Some may not qualify Kings winger Tyler Toffoli as a big-name guy but he has quietly hit or at least played at a 20-goal pace in each of the past four seasons so he at least qualifies as an impact player.  Los Angeles isn’t done making changes by all accounts and if they continue their freefall, they’ll shift their focus towards trying to free up some salary cap flexibility which brings Toffoli and his $4.6MM deal through 2019-20 to the forefront.

As for where he could land, I’d look at teams that are underachieving offensively or have already stated their desire to add top-six help.  Boston’s known to be looking for some firepower although their preference is to add a center over a winger.  Carolina wants Nylander but they’ve also looked into other top-six forwards as well and I expect Toffoli is one of those.  I wouldn’t sleep on a team like Chicago having interest either.  However, I’ll pick the Hurricanes as a landing spot as their Plan B for when Nylander re-ups with Toronto.

It will probably be a while before more of the prominent players are dealt.  Matt Duchene could go if they can’t get an extension done but they’re still talking.  Mark Stone is in a similar boat in Ottawa although he can’t even consider extending until January.  The Rangers seem to want to wait to move which takes players like Zuccarello and Hayes off the table for now.  Columbus doesn’t want to move Artemi Panarin so that will be a late swap if one happens at all and I suspect Bobrovsky is in a similar boat.  Some of these players will go but not anytime soon.

@canuckjake16: With Edler out & Tanev newly returned is there a point in exploring trade options or do they simply, as of today, have more value overall in staying & signing with the Canucks, lots can happen between now & then understandably but signing does provide mentorship

In Alex Edler’s case, there would certainly be a market for his services but there are two questions in play.  The first is can he stay healthy?  That has been an issue for him routinely in recent years and as you noted, he’s hurt again.  The other is would he waive his no-trade clause?  Edler has stated in the past that his preference is to remain with Vancouver so even if the Canucks wanted to move him, I don’t think it’s a guarantee that Edler would waive.  I’m not sold on Vancouver hanging on to a playoff spot so from a long-term standpoint, I’d look to move him and indicate to him beforehand that a reunion next summer would be desirable.

As for Chris Tanev, it’s a catch-22.  There are plenty of teams that could use him in their lineup.  However, considering his own historical injury struggles, it’s hard to see a team parting with a good enough asset to make it worthwhile for Vancouver (who has leaned on him heavily this year) to move him.  If Tanev can stay healthy all season and someone looking for a stay-at-home blueliner is willing to pony up a notable return, I’d move him.  Otherwise, the time isn’t right to sell low knowing that he has another year left on his contract.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

This edition of the mailbag looks at potential landing spots for Joel Quenneville, possible trade targets for Boston, more discussion about William Nylander, and Vancouver’s strong start to the season.

pawtucket: Which team does Mr. Quenneville coach next and what are the percentages for each. Here are your options:

LA Kings
St. Louis Blues
Philadelphia Flyers
Detroit Red Wings

First off, add me to the list of people who think Chicago made a mistake here.  The Blackhawks, as currently constructed, aren’t a contending team like they once were.  They also have something they haven’t had much of in recent years – cap space.  I believe the proper move would have been to make an addition to the roster to see if that got them going.  If not, then this decision would have made more sense.  I get that Jeremy Colliton is a promising young coach but he was already in their system; this option was available to them six weeks from now if they opted to do a trade before the firing.

Of the teams you list, the only one I’d give reasonably-high odds to is St. Louis.  Mike Yeo’s job appears to be in jeopardy and if Quenneville wants to jump back in as soon as possible, this could be a spot that is made available in the next little while.  Accordingly, I’ll give them the top percentage at 40%.  I suspect Plan A for the Kings is that Willie Desjardins does well enough to earn the full-time job and that Marco Sturm would be Plan B.  This one won’t be an option until the summer at the earliest so I couldn’t go more than 5% here.  I don’t think the Flyers are planning on making a coaching change anytime soon and if they did, Ron Hextall strikes me as the type of GM who wouldn’t be coveting an old-school type like Quenneville so I can’t go higher than 5% here either.  As a rebuilding team, it wouldn’t make sense for Detroit to want Quenneville and his high price tag while it wouldn’t make sense for him to go there either so I’ll put that one at 0%.  (If Jeff Blashill is let go in-season, they have a logical interim replacement in Dan Bylsma already.)

I’m going to toss a few other teams out there.  Anaheim is off to a slow start and while they’ve been hit hard with injuries, I could see them making a move over the next couple of months.  They’re in win-now mode so a veteran like Quenneville would be the type of coach they’re looking for so I’ll peg them at 25%.  While Edmonton has rebounded from a slow start, another sizable losing streak would have Todd McLellan’s job in question again.  They’re another team in win-now mode so I’ll put them at 20%.  I’d also give Pittsburgh low odds here.  Jim Rutherford isn’t happy with how things are going and has limited cap space to address it.  If he can’t change the team, might he change the coach?  I’ll put them at the remaining 5%.

case7187: We hear that the B’s are looking to add to the teams’ 3rd line who could be a realistic option?

In particular, Boston’s preference is to add some help down the middle to help cover the void created when they opted not to re-sign Riley Nash in free agency.  With the young players they have on the horizon, I suspect their preference would be a short-term contract if they’re looking to add a veteran.

Kevin Hayes of the Rangers is going to be a highly sought after center between now and the trade deadline but the asking price will be steep.  I also suspect New York will want to wait to move him until closer to the trade deadline.  At that time, there will be less of a financial obligation for cap-strapped contenders to take on.  If Boston wants to do something sooner than later, they may have to look elsewhere.

I wonder if there’s a swap to be made with Pittsburgh for Derick Brassard.  He hasn’t fit in as well as the Penguins had hoped to the point where they’ve tried him on the wing.  If Boston is indeed willing to part with a young winger like Anders Bjork or Danton Heinen as has been suggested in recent weeks, I think there could be a fit for a trade.

On the lower end of the scale, Detroit’s Luke Glendening makes some sense as a target.  He doesn’t have the offensive upside that Nash does but he can win faceoffs and kill penalties while shifting between the third and fourth lines.  He wouldn’t have the type of impact the others would but would at least serve as some insurance.  He has two years left after this one but at a reasonable $1.8MM rate.

The challenge with hoping to add a center is simply that the market doesn’t really open up for those players until further into the season.  As a result, they’ll likely have to stick with David Backes down the middle for a little while longer.

There’s also the report that they’d like to move one of their underachieving youngsters for another young forward but those deals often take some time to materialize as many teams don’t want to take the risk of moving someone too soon.  Assuming Boston can make a trade like that, it’s hard to imagine that they’d get an established center in return so that may be one to shore up the wing with an eye on adding a center closer to the deadline.

fireballer: What happens if the Leafs simply don’t trade Nylander and he doesn’t play this season. Does he remain a restricted free agent after the season is over or does he become unrestricted?

Nothing changes on the Nylander front if we get past December 1st and he remains unsigned when it comes to his NHL situation.  He will still be a restricted free agent without salary arbitration eligibility and he will still be on track for unrestricted free agency in the 2023 offseason.  Of course, if he goes past December 1st without an NHL contract, he’ll be ineligible to play in the NHL for the rest of the season and would likely sign somewhere overseas.

binarydaddy: What’s the latest on the Nylander contract talks and/or possible trade destinations and packages that #LeafsNation can expect?

The latest is that nothing has changed from a couple of weeks ago.  Both sides are well apart in terms of the AAV on a long-term contract and while there has been some talk about a bridge deal, it appears to be more of a last-ditch option at this point.  All in all, we’re about two weeks away from this getting really interesting.

While it has been stated that plenty of teams have already expressed an interest in trading for him, I question how many actually have the key young player that Toronto would covet in return and the cap space to deal with a higher cap hit for this season relative to the AAV of the full contract.  (The longer this goes, the more bloated the 2018-19 cap hit is going to be and could head towards the $9MM – $10MM mark.)  This isn’t a situation where the Maple Leafs are going to accept a number four defenseman, a middle-six forward, and a draft pick.  If they move Nylander, it’s going to be for someone that can be a part of their core for a long time.

I think that limits the number of serious suitors to just a few teams.  Carolina is widely known to be interested but Toronto shouldn’t even entertain the notion of moving him there unless one of defensemen Jaccob Slavin or Brett Pesce are in the deal.  (Justin Faulk would help them but doesn’t have the team control that the others do.)  Philadelphia has been suggested as a fit but blueliner Ivan Provorov is unlikely to be in there and while Travis Sanheim has upside, he can’t be a centerpiece yet and I can’t see them taking a deal headlined by someone like Travis Konecny either.  Would the Flyers move Shayne Gostisbehere and would Toronto accept him as the top player coming back?  I suspect the Ducks would have plenty of interest but their salary cap situation would make a move difficult.

He’d be a nice fit in Nashville but the Preds probably aren’t breaking up the top four on their back end.  You can insert quite a few teams in a sentence like that as well – Nylander could help a ton of teams but they either lack the requisite type of player that GM Kyle Dubas likely wants or aren’t going to be willing to part with it.

That’s why I’m still of the mindset that a trade is unlikely.  If they want to seriously explore the idea of dealing William Nylander, the offseason makes a lot more sense to do so than now.  My projection a few weeks ago was a six-year deal but the closer this gets to December 1st, the higher the likelihood of a bridge contract gets.  That would get him signed, give Toronto a boost to put them in further contention, and basically allow them to punt the decision on whether they can fit all of their forwards in or not down the road.  It’s not a big win for anyone but at this stage of the game, the ‘perfect contract’ isn’t happening for either side.

ThePriceWasRight: Recognizing it’s still early but are the Canucks for real? Not top 10 on PK, PP, goals for or goals against would say this is a little lucky.

I’m not sold on them being for real just yet.  This isn’t an indictment on Vancouver specifically but we’re at the point of the season where most of the top teams aren’t firing on all cylinders.  In three of the four divisions, there’s someone in the top-three that hardly anyone would have expected to be in the playoff picture (the Canucks, Canadiens, and Islanders).  I’m not prepared to call any of their starts a sign of things to come at this point of the season.

Elias Pettersson is off to a very strong start but I can’t see him maintaining close to a goal per game average.  Brock Boeser is going to be out for a little while now as well.  There are also some concerns about their defense, especially with Alex Edler already on IR.  Plus, the goalie tandem of Jacob Markstrom and Anders Nilsson hasn’t got the job done in the past so it’s hard to have faith that all of a sudden, they will be able to take a big step forward.

Vancouver’s off to a good start and at the very least, it’s going to keep them around the playoff hunt for a while.  However, they’ll need to keep this up until closer to the midway mark of the season before it’s time to say their start is for real.

If your question wasn’t answered, watch for it to be covered in next weekend’s mailbag.  You can still submit questions here.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

This edition of the PHR Mailbag discusses some teams that are struggling early on, the free agent situation in Columbus, the surprising Rangers, a top Vegas prospect, the Stars, and a certain unsigned Toronto winger.

ThePriceWasRight: Should Florida Panthers fans be worried?

Yes and no.  On the one hand, I’m concerned about their goaltending.  Florida paid James Reimer a significant amount of money to provide them with a starting-caliber insurance policy for whenever Roberto Luongo gets injured.  He simply has not provided them with that level of play this season and that is a big reason for their early struggles.  Luongo is still a couple of weeks away and if Reimer doesn’t turn it around, they’re going to have a bit of a hill to climb to get into the playoffs.

On the other hand, the Panthers have quietly put together one of the more underrated attacks in the league.   They should be able to stay near the three-goal per game mark once again so once Luongo returns (or Reimer improves), they’ll be back in the win column pretty quickly.  Even with Buffalo, Montreal, and even Ottawa off to better than expected starts, I still expect Florida to leapfrog those teams which would at the very least have them soundly in the mix for a Wild Card spot.

@bdaly77: Will the Flyers ever be good?

I thought Philadelphia was good (albeit streaky) last year and with James van Riemsdyk on the shelf, this is basically the same team.  Not surprisingly, they’ve been up and down thus far.  The Flyers are in a slow build in that they’re expecting a lot of their core youngsters to generate the year-to-year improvement and the gains have been incremental thus far.  If they stick with that mindset, they’re probably a couple of years from getting to that next tier.

If you’re thinking that a couple of years from now seems a lot like the timeline for Carter Hart to really make an impact, that’s my thought as well.  Give this team good, consistent goaltending and a lot of the ebbs and flows of the last few years should also go away which should help them take off in the standings.  In the interim, van Riemsdyk’s eventual return should allow them to outscore some of their troubles; they’re not going to allow four goals per game all season long.

met man: How many more years are left on Marc Staal’s contract? I hope it’s over after 2018/19.

Staal has three seasons left on his current deal (including this one) with a $5.7MM cap hit and a full no-move clause (which could come into play if Seattle’s expansion team debuts in 2020-21).  The ‘good’ news here is that his contract isn’t really preventing New York from doing anything at the moment.  They have a reasonable chunk of salary cap space (with the ability to move several waiver-exempt players back and forth to and from the minors to make more room if needed) and new bench boss David Quinn has already benched one expensive underachiever so if he decides that Staal shouldn’t be in the lineup, he probably won’t hesitate to sit him down.  Barring a swap of bad contracts at some point this season, they’ll have to decide in the summer if they’re betting off buying out the remaining two years of his contract.

Paul Heyman: Could Mike Yeo be on his way out if the Blues don’t perform well in the next few weeks or in the next few months, also when is the defense going to help out Jake Allen and Chad Johnson?

Generally speaking, I’m a proponent of showing patience when it comes to coaches.  There has been a fair bit of turnover so it’s not all that shocking that there are some early-season struggles.  That said, there certainly seems to be a lot of speculation lately that something could be up between the bench and they have a former NHL bench boss in Craig Berube if they need to make a change.  I’d still give the team more time to jell but I wouldn’t be shocked if a change was made in the next few weeks if they can’t get back on track.

As for their defense, I don’t think it’s a particularly bad unit, especially to the point where they’re allowing four goals per game.  (Like Philadelphia, I don’t expect that to continue much longer.)  They’re working with a new defensive coach in Mike van Ryn so that may account for some of the issues as they change things up a little bit.  Beyond that, I think they’ll get themselves sorted out eventually.

ThePriceWasRight: Columbus can’t really risk losing both Bob and Panarin for nothing right? Both have to be moved if they think they aren’t re-signing.

A lot is going to depend on where they are in the postseason picture closer to the trade deadline.  If they’re in contention, it’s a tough sell to the fans (and the team) to sell off two of their best players, even if it’s the more practical move long-term.  If they’re at or below a Wild Card spot though, I could see the Blue Jackets making the push to deal both even if it results in them falling out of contention.  Basically, short-term pain for long-term gain is a lot easier to sell if you’re not at or near the top of the division.

A complicating factor here is that the typical market for a rental starting goalie is going to be small.  While most teams would love to add an impact player like Artemi Panarin (and would pay a hefty price to do so), only a handful at most will be looking for an upgrade between the pipes.  If that is indeed the case (injuries could certainly change things between now and the trade deadline in February), then GM Jarmo Kekalainen could opt to hold onto Sergei Bobrovsky over taking a middling return for him in the hopes that he can be convinced to stick around (at a price tag that doesn’t set a new benchmark for goaltenders).

@Joewalton9090: Is Dallas looking for scoring depth?

It’s too early in the year for notable depth players to be moved – ones that could make an impact between now and the end of the season.  Accordingly, at this particular moment, they’re probably not on the hunt for scoring depth.  Assuming the injury bug doesn’t bite them too much more than it already has though, the Stars should have enough salary cap room to add one notable player for the stretch run if they’re still in the hunt at that time.

The question then becomes where should they try to improve?  Another impact scoring winger would give them a second line that could really pack a scoring punch.  However, defense has been an issue for a while in Dallas so on the surface, it may make more sense to try to get a top-four blueliner and in the process, move a few players down into roles they’re more suited for.  If I was GM Jim Nill, I’d lean towards getting help on the back end – the Stars have enough firepower that a lack of scoring isn’t likely to be a problem.

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While William Nylander was a popular topic among the mailbag questions, there were still some queries regarding other topics around the league.  This edition of the mailbag looks at the impact of some significant injuries, Nick Ritchie’s situation in Anaheim, Filip Zadina, teams struggling out of the gate defensively, and a slow start in St. Louis.

ByeTheNumbers: Lots of big injuries to start the season: Luongo, JVR, Perry, etc. Who fares the worst?

I think Anaheim is hit the hardest out of that group.  There are already some question marks surrounding the health of core players like Ryan Kesler and Patrick Eaves and with Ondrej Kase also on the shelf, their depth is getting tested.  Because of the long-term nature of Corey Perry’s injury, they at least have LTIR space to work with if they want to add help from outside of the organization.  However, with their financial commitments beyond this season (more than $74MM which doesn’t include Ritchie), any addition would need to be on an expiring contract.

I think the Panthers and Flyers are relatively well-equipped to handle their injuries.  Everyone knows Roberto Luongo’s an injury risk at this point which is why Florida gave Michael Hutchinson $1.3MM to start in the minors and be a capable recall option whenever Luongo goes down.  A tandem of Hutchinson and James Reimer isn’t going to steal them a lot of games but they should be able to tread water at the very least.  As for Philadelphia, losing James van Riemsdyk hurts but they basically have their entire offense back from last year, a team that was around the middle of the pack in scoring.  They should be able to overcome missing van Riemsdyk for now, as long as their goaltending holds up.

ThePriceWasRight: How long do the Nylander and Ritchie sagas play out? Maple Leafs have shown they likely don’t need Nylander but could still use a shutdown d-man. Anaheim, on the other hand, could use some offense in its lineup.

Of the two I think Ritchie and Anaheim will get a deal done first.  While the Ducks could use some offensive upgrades due to their injuries, I’m not sure Ritchie (who had just ten goals last year) really moves the needle for them too much; he’s more of a middle-six player.  The team wants a three-year bridge deal and Ritchie’s hoping for one year with the idea that a strong season will set him up for a bigger contract next summer.  Given how much they have committed already for next year though, I’m not surprised that Anaheim appears to be looking for some more cost certainty here.  Eventually, I have to think they’ll meet in the middle within the next week or two.

Nylander was covered previously in the Nylander-specific edition of the mailbag.

Mark Black: What are the implications of the Zadina loan clarification in terms of finances? Do the Mooseheads receive any financial compensation from the Red Wings/NHL in terms of transfer fees or does that money go to Zadina’s originating team? How much did the Mooseheads lose out on aside from a very good roster player?

This is a really intriguing question but considering the required documents to answer this aren’t available publicly (the NHL-CHL Player Transfer Agreement, the PTA between the NHL and the Czech Republic, and the loan agreement between Halifax and Pardubice), I can only give you a general guess on the answer.

Zadina was ruled eligible to play in the AHL this season which is noteworthy.  Had he been classified as a CHL player, he wouldn’t have been able to as the PTA between the NHL and CHL would have prevented him from doing so.  The age/years of experience restriction that exists in that agreement does not exist in international ones which is why Zadina is currently suiting up in Grand Rapids.  With that in mind, I’d have to surmise that in the eyes of the league, the transfer fees would go to the Czech Republic.  (And without the actual agreements, I can’t even speculate on what the price paid would be.)

While it certainly feels like Halifax gets the short end of the stick here, they wound up getting very good value on their top pick in the 2017 Import Draft in that Zadina became an impact player right away.  Most teams have to wait a year or two before their import selections really blossom (such as the two they took in the most recent draft) so even though he wound up being a one-and-done player (and likely not getting much, if anything, in transfer fees), the Mooseheads still have to be somewhat pleased with what they got out of Zadina.

ThePriceWasRight: Which team is more in need of immediate defensive help?

Toronto 13 GA in 3 games
Chicago 14 GA in 3 games
Pittsburgh 13 GA in 2 games

Considering Chicago has multiple injuries on defense and is still without Corey Crawford, I wouldn’t worry too much about them just yet.  If they allow goals like this when they’re fully healthy though, then it’s trouble.  Pittsburgh hasn’t had a great back end on paper for a while now and it hasn’t held them back so I think they’re okay for now.  Before the season is out though, I think some sort of small upgrade would be useful.

As for Toronto, their defensive woes can be covered as long as their attack is at the level it’s at now.  I can’t see their offense averaging five goals per game all season but even when that comes down, they can still outscore their defensive struggles most nights.  That will allow them to bide their time so while an upgrade is needed at some point, it doesn’t have to be a move that’s made in the short-term either.

At this time of the season, most trades are depth-based so it’s going to take some time for a team to be willing to part with a top-four blueliner that would represent a tangible upgrade for most clubs, including these three.

Paul Heyman: When is the Blues offense/defense going to help Jake Allen win a game this season?

The offense had a good showing on Thursday night but it’s not too surprising that it’s off to a somewhat slow start.  The Blues are integrating quite a few new players into their system – half of their top-eight forwards in terms of ATOI weren’t on the team last year.  On top of that, they’re also playing two top youngsters in Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou who weren’t with the team either.  When half of their forwards weren’t there last season (even more when you factor in Robby Fabbri’s eventual return), there are going to be growing pains.  If this question is coming up 30 games from now, then there will be cause for concern.

I think they’ll be okay defensively before too long.  Getting Joel Edmundson back is a big help and if Jay Bouwmeester can stay healthy, that will also shore up the depth on their back end while Vince Dunn should be able to play a bigger role after a good rookie year as well.  This isn’t a group that should be winning too many games on their own but, when healthy, they shouldn’t be costing the Blues too many either.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.