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Loui Eriksson

Bruins Notes: Krejci, Marchand, Vatrano

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Joe Haggerty of CSNNE.com was busy today, writing multiple pieces about the Boston Bruins and their upcoming training camp. On David Krejci’s exit from the World Cup today, Haggerty reminds us what the centerman said earlier this week:

If I’m ready then that would be awesome, but if not then I have to do what I have to do to be 100 percent. I’m in contact with the national team coach, and we talk pretty every week. They’re asking about my updates, so they know what’s going on. I’m sure they have some backup plan if it’s not going to work out. We’ll see what happens.

He had hip surgery in April, and is still expected to be ready for the season.  Here is some more from Haggerty today:

  • Brad Marchand isn’t thinking about a new contract while he plays this season, saying that he goes year-by-year and is more focused on making it back to the playoffs. “Guys are really hungry after missing the playoffs again last year. First and foremost this year is on my end and we’ll deal with the years after that down the road.” said Marchand, but Haggerty opines that the Bruins should be more concerned with locking up their young winger. He’s part of the driving force behind the Bruins lineup, and should command more than Loui Eriksson if he hits the open market next summer.  He’s set to earn $5MM in salary this season in his last of a four-year pact.
  • Frank Vatrano scored 44 goals last season across two levels in his first full year at the professional level. He’s out for even more this year. “I kind of know what it takes to play at the next level, and how to be a complete player. Going into summer that was kind of my mentality: to become a complete player. That’s something I’ve been working at all summer.” The 22-year old exploded onto the AHL scene this year after a successful sophomore year at UMass in 2014-15. 55 points in 36 games at the lower level, he’ll need to prove that he can carry that production to the big leagues; he only scored 11 points in 39 NHL contests.

Revisiting Vancouver’s Search For Scoring Line Wing

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With franchise cornerstones Daniel Sedin and Henrik Sedin each nearing the end of their great careers and after missing the postseason by a whopping 12 points, it would appear the Vancouver Canucks should strongly consider tearing down then rebuilding their roster. Instead, Vancouver seems to be trying to walk the fine line between being competitive today while still trying to add youth to the organization to make them better tomorrow. The signing of Loui Eriksson and the trade for Erik Gudbranson – a deal that cost Vancouver young forward Jared McCann and a second-round pick – reinforces the idea the Canucks want to try to compete for a playoff berth this year, even if they sacrifice young talent to do so.

Along those lines, GM Jim Benning has been open about his efforts to add a scoring line winger, whether by trade or by signing one of the few remaining quality free agent forwards on the market, in an attempt to further improve his club’s chances at the postseason. The club has been linked to potential trade target Evander Kane, among others, this summer but James O’Brien, writing for NBC Sports, argues that Vancouver should steer clear of the trade market in their search for an “experienced 15-20 goal-scorer,” and instead add one of the skilled forwards left in free agency.

Vancouver likely has little chance to make the postseason in a division that includes three, near-certain playoff teams and three others who may have made enough roster improvements this summer to realistically challenge. Defending Western Conference champion San Jose should be a near lock for the playoffs, as should Los Angeles and Anaheim. Arizona, Calgary and Edmonton each made major moves that could result in postseason contention. With the playoffs unlikely, Vancouver shouldn’t give up any of the few valuable assets they have in exchange for a marginal increase in their postseason odds this year.

Considering a reunion with UFA Radim Vrbata is unlikely, signing one of Brandon Pirri or Jiri Hudler – two of PHR’s five top remaining UFA’s – would improve the Canucks on the ice for the 2016-17 campaign and won’t cost the team anything other than cash. Additionally, if either player has a productive season for Vancouver, the Canucks could move them at the deadline for future assets. Remember that Hudler, a pending free agent at the time, was dealt from Calgary to the Panthers for second and fourth-round draft choices. That’s exactly the type of move a club like Vancouver should make as opposed to dealing for a veteran player under contract long term.

Hudler, a three-time 20-goal-scorer, had a down season in 2015-16 but is just one year removed from a 31-goal campaign with the Flames. He still tallied 16 goals last year in 72 games, splitting the season with Calgary and Florida. But even in a “down” year, his goal-scoring rate was still comfortably that of a top-six winger. Hudler averaged 0.79 G/60 this past season, a total which ranked 91st overall among forwards who saw at least 500 minutes of even strength ice time. With 30 teams in the league, each with three top-line players, Hudler’s goal production ranks just outside what you would expect from a first-liner.

Pirri averaged 0.74 G/60 last season, good for the 105th best rate among forwards who played 500 minutes at even strength. As with Hudler, in terms of goal scoring alone Pirri is comfortably a second-line player. His career rate of 0.91 G/60 suggests that given more ice time, Pirri would easily exceed 20 goals in a full season.

If Vancouver is simply looking for a player who can put the puck in the net, signing Hudler or Pirri to a one-year deal makes far more sense than giving up assets to acquire a goal-scorer via trade. Considering how late in the summer we are and after seeing how much of a pay cut Sam Gagner took after a lackluster season, it’s likely Hudler is only worth around $2MM per at this point. Pirri probably would sign for less than that figure. Additionally, assuming the club signs one of those free agent wingers and they go on to produce solid numbers, the value Vancouver could extract from a contender at the deadline makes this route far and away the better option for a team that should be focusing more on the future than the present.

 

 

 

Boston In Negotiations With Brad Marchand

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The Boston Bruins have had an interesting summer so far. After negotiating all season with Loui Eriksson, the forward eventually signed a huge deal with the Vancouver Canucks. The team tried to replace his production by bringing in former St. Louis Blues captain David Backes on a long-term deal, securing their center position for the immediate future.

It’s the wing that now needs attention, as the team has started negotiations with all-star winger Brad Marchand on a contract extension, according to D.J. Bean of WEEI. Marchand, 28, has one year remaining on his current deal, after which he would become an unrestricted free agent. After scoring 37 goals this past season, the diminutive winger (who doesn’t play like it) will be in for a huge raise.

In the six seasons that he has been a regular in the Bruins’ lineup, Marchand has eclipsed 20 goals all but once – the lockout shortened 2012-13 season, in which he scored 18 in 45 games.  After breaking out even further last season, the former third-round pick will probably be looking for a contract larger than that of Eriksson, who brought in a total of $36MM over six seasons.  If he can put up another 30-plus goal season, he’ll probably command the maximum seven years, at somewhere between $6-7MM per – that is, unless the team can get him under contract before he hits the open market.

Top-Line Options Remaining In Free Agency

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For many teams, free agency is a place to find a player or two to slot into your top two lines, to supplement the core you already have in place.  Edmonton went out and got Milan Lucic, to add some veteran toughness while replacing the outgoing offensive contribution of Taylor Hall. Vancouver added Loui Eriksson in a questionable move for a team who hasn’t quite decided what direction they’re headed in, and Buffalo brought on Kyle Okposo to ride shotgun with their young talent up front.

Now that the madness has died down, the market for these top-six players is extremely thin, with only a few names having established themselves there in the past.  With Shane Doan surely re-signing with the Coyotes, and Patrik Elias looking as though it’s either Devils or retirement, two of the most well known names among this group aren’t going anywhere.  Here are the other possibilities for a team to add to their top-six:

(number in parentheses represents ranking on our Top 50 UFAs)

  1. Jiri Hudler (18) – Though Hudler is now 32-years old and took a significant step back last season, he still represents one of the better second-line options available. His 46 points in 2015-16 split between the Flames and Panthers were a disappointing total for a player coming off a 31-goal, 76 point season but still ranked him right alongside players like Andrew Ladd (46 points, $38.5MM) and David Backes (45 points, $30MM).
  2. Kris Versteeg (25) – While Versteeg is probably better suited as a third-liner on a good team, he has shown the ability to move up in the lineup consistently in the past.  A three-time twenty goal scorer, Versteeg has scored at least 34 points in each of his seven healthy seasons.  He can play either wing, and brings a level of physicality to his game as well.
  3. Radim Vrbata (27) – Vrbata is clearly on the downswing of his career, having put up just 27 points and a whopping -30 mark last season.  Now 35, he’ll look to sign a cheap deal and could be a nice value signing for a team pressed against the cap. Remember, this is a guy who has over 250 career NHL goals, and is just one season removed from the second 30-goal season of his career.
  4. Alex Tanguay (33) – Though he’s now 37, Tanguay continues to produce like a second-line center, putting up another 35 point campaign despite having a much reduced role after a trade to Arizona.  For a team looking to shelter their young forwards, a veteran like Tanguay can provide some offensive punch on a cheap, short-term deal. He’ll likely break 900 points in what has been an excellent career for the former Avalanche stalwart.
  5. Brandon Pirri (NR) – Despite Pirri’s reputation as a bottom-six forward, some teams might see the former Panther as a second-line option, due to his previous goal scoring ability.  Pirri has potted 36 goals over the past two seasons, including 22 in 2014-15. The problem is that he’s racked up just 17 assists over the same time.  He was an outstanding scorer in his AHL career, and is still just 25-years old, meaning that taking a shot on him might not be the worst gamble among the remaining options.

The Signing Bonus: Rise Of The Buyout-Proof Contract

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The life of an NHL agent is tough. As the league continues to tweak (or totally overhaul) their CBA each few seasons, changing contract regulations and offering teams different ways of structuring deals, agents are always trying to find ways to circumvent them and get the best offers for their clients.

With teams becoming more and more willing to use buyouts to rid themselves of the horrible contracts that they sign on July 1st – famously a day of simultaneous excitement and regret – agents around the league needed to find a way to protect their clients from losing out on a third (or sometimes two-thirds) of the salary the sides agreed on.

The most recent buyout window, which lasted from June 15th to 30th, saw a dozen NHL players bought out, including household names like Thomas Vanek and Dennis Seidenberg. While some fans may see this as an opportunity for a player to earn two contracts at the same time – Vanek was signed on by Detroit for $2.6MM on July 1st, more than the $1.5MM he surrendered in his buyout – most take it as a personal slight, an indictment of their play or character. Regardless, agents continue to try and secure guarantees for their clients, instead of leaving the power in the hands of the league’s general managers.

Enter the signing bonus, this summer’s contract-du-jour. All across the league, big name free agents have inked deals that will see them paid almost entirely in signing bonuses, with very little actual salary being given out each season.  Take Loui Eriksson for instance:

2016-17 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2017-18 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $7MM
2018-19 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $6MM
2019-20 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $4MM
2020-21 – Salary: $1MM, Bonus: $3MM
2021-22 – Salary: $3MM, Bonus: $1MM

While Eriksson’s cap-hit sits at $6MM per year, he’ll make more than that in bonuses alone each of the next three seasons. There are a couple of reasons why this would benefit the player.

For one, everyone loves getting a big check rather than a weekly salary – who would turn down a piece of paper with six zeros?  As any economist will tell you, money in hand is worth more than money promised to come, and just as teams in other sports are deferring payments for this reason long into the future, having money up front is actually more valuable for the player in question.

It’s in the buyout rules that the contract really holds value though, as – hinted at by the title – these contracts are basically buyout-proof.  Under the current CBA, buyouts are calculated by taking two-thirds of the remaining salary owed, not including signing bonuses, and spreading it out over twice the remaining contract length. The new cap hit is determined by subtracting the savings from the average annual value of the deal which includes signing bonuses.

This means that if the Canucks were to want to buy out Eriksson after say, the third year of his new deal, they’ll only be saving $333K of cap hit in 2020-21, an insignificant portion of the $6MM number. That last season of $3MM is a bit better for the Canucks (they would save $2MM of his cap hit), but structuring it this way almost guarantees that Eriksson will collect at least $35MM of his deal – more than 97%. It’s just not worth it to buy him out any sooner than his final year.

Andrew Ladd, Milan Lucic, Kyle Okposo all signed deals heavily impacted by signing bonuses, protecting them against a buyout through all but the very end of their agreements.  Even Matt Martin, a career fourth liner secured a $10MM deal that is 65% bonus.  He’ll only be collecting $750K in salary in years three and four of the deal.

While this doesn’t necessarily mean trouble for clubs around the league, you can bet the owners and NHLPA will take a look at it when negotiations begin on the new CBA.  The current agreement expires in 2022, though the two sides have the option to end it a year earlier.

Just as the league has used cap recapture and contract limits to close loopholes in the past, be sure that if they want to continue to have the option to buyout bad contracts they’ll remove this option from the equation.  Creating a rule that would make signing bonuses only be able to hit a certain percentage of each season’s salary would be the easy fix, but expect push-back from the NHLPA.

Even if they do end up closing it, agents will work on another way to get their clients the best possible guarantee; they always seem to be one step ahead of the league.

Eriksson Inks Six-Year Deal With Canucks

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As had been long expected, Loui Eriksson has signed with the Vancouver Canucks on a six-year $36MM deal, as reported by Nick Kypreos. Eriksson’s deal was one of many high-profile deals reported to be done when the free agency window began. The former Bruin winger joins former Boston Assistant GM, Jim Benning, now in charge in Vancouver, and will likely play alongside fellow Swedes Daniel and Henrik Sedin on the Canucks’ top line.

Last year, Eriksson had his best campaign since before the lockout, picking up 30 goals and 33 assists with Boston while playing in all 82 games.  He also averaged 19:29 of ice time per game.

In his career, Eriksson has played in 725 career NHL games between Dallas and Boston, scoring 212 goals and 292 assists.

Free Agent Profile: Loui Eriksson

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Once Steven Stamkos was crossed off several teams’ wishlist, a name that continues to rise to the top is Loui Eriksson. The one time Dallas Star and current Boston Bruin is a 30-year-old winger who could provide a scoring punch for any team that signs him.

Eriksson is coming off a season where he had 63 points (30-33), his best season statistically since 2011-12 when he was in Dallas. Fairly or unfairly, Eriksson was seen as the lesser of the two in the deal for Tyler Seguin and his first couple seasons in Boston didn’t entirely quiet that notion. Though he had 47 points in 2014-15 (22-25),  it was a far cry from the three 30+ goal seasons Seguin produced in Dallas. Regardless, Eriksson has been a 20+ goal scorer six out of his nine NHL seasons.

Potential Suitors

After Stamkos re-signed with Tampa Bay, Eriksson had a lot of teams–possibly up to eight–kicking the tires. Vancouver, Montreal, Nashville, and San Jose are thinking about a future with the 31-year-old forward. Boston should not be counted out from re-signing him, either. The Hockey News listed Eriksson as one of the better bets to pick up during the free agent period because of his size, skill, and scoring prowess. Teams looking for scoring, Detroit and Buffalo also come to mind, may be intrigued should the bidding not get completely out of hand.

Expected Contract

PHR listed Eriksson #10 out of the top 50 free agents and had him staying with the Bruins. The predicted contract was six years, $27.5MM. While the price tag might go up due to Eriksson being one of the better goal scorers available, expect a yearly deal somewhere between $4.5-$5.25MM.

Snapshots: Ladd, Blues, Brouwer, Lucic, Staal, Eriksson, Avalanche, Vanek

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Thursday is the final day of the free agent interview period before the craziness begins on Friday.  The Islanders have brought left winger Andrew Ladd in for a visit, reports Newsday’s Arthur Staple.  Ladd picked up 25 goals last season split between Winnipeg and Chicago and will be one of the most sought after forwards to hit the market on Friday.

Other free agent news and notes:

  • The Blues will likely look to add a couple of forwards and a backup goaltender in free agency, suggests Fox Sports Midwest’s Andy Strickland. Louis has a pair of key forwards heading to market in David Backes and Troy Brouwer that will need to be replaced if they don’t re-sign.  The team expects Vladimir Sobotka back, but he is more likely to be a bottom six piece while the other two are top six forwards.
  • Speaking of Brouwer, he met with the Flames earlier this week and is building an offseason home there, reports ESPN’s Pierre LeBrun. In that same piece Brouwer notes that he has also been in talks about returning to the Blues.
  • Milan Lucic met with representatives from Dallas, including owner Tom Gaglardi, on Wednesday, reports TSN’s Frank Seravelli.
  • Eric Staal has received interest from the Predators, writes Adam Vingan of The Tennessean. Vingan adds that Nashville has reached out to Ladd as well as Loui Eriksson.
  • The odds of Eriksson and Boston getting a deal done by Friday unless things change drastically, writes WEEI’s D.J. Bean. Eight teams have reportedly shown interest in the 30 year old, including the Canadiens.
  • James Mirtle of The Globe and Mail suggests Colorado “has something big brewing”.  No further specifics are known at this time.
  • Michael Russo of The Star Tribune reports that Los Angeles, Arizona, Chicago, and Vancouver are among the teams that have reached out to the recently bought out Thomas Vanek.

Free Agent Notes: Stamkos, Okposo, Lucic

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With the completion of the NHL Entry Draft, the negotiating window with upcoming unrestricted free agents has now opened.  From now until July 1st, teams are allowed to contact, but not sign, the pending UFAs. This is a key period when teams decide on strategy for the summer before the free agent frenzy begins, and also the last chance for teams looking to re-sign their own players to eight year contracts. Once the player becomes unrestricted next Friday, teams may only offer seven year pacts.  Here is some information already coming out about some of the top names:

  • Steven Stamkos is the most important example of a team who would lose their advantage after July 1st, with the superstar center surely demanding a maximum length deal. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet reports that the Buffalo Sabres may be joining the hunt for the 26-year old, quoting GM Tim Murray: “We’re going to chase the big fish.”  The Sabres do have over $20MM in cap space for the upcoming season, and could fit a Stamkos-like contract into their current structure.
  • After opening, the window for Kyle Okposo must have been pretty stuffed as Arthur Staple of Newsday reports there was plenty of interest in the 28-year old. Among the teams that came calling were the Jets, Blues, Kings, Wild and Red Wings. Okposo put up 64 points last season and landed at #2 on our list of the top 50 UFAs.
  • ESPN’s Joe McDonald passes along a report that Boston Bruins’ GM Don Sweeney has considered a reunion with Milan Lucic, and that the team will at least inquire about Stamkos. Boston isn’t finding much luck trying to re-sign their own star forward, as Loui Eriksson looks poised to hit the open market next week.

Snapshots: Stamkos, Shattenkirk, Bruins, Canucks, Coyotes, Datsyuk

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Saturday is shaping up to be an important day in the Steven Stamkos saga, writes TSN’s Frank Seravelli.  The interview period with pending unrestricted free agents kicks off on Saturday, meaning that the Lightning have less than 48 hours left of exclusive negotiating rights with their captain.  As a result, GM Steve Yzerman may have to deliver his best offer to Stamkos by Friday before other teams have an opportunity to make their pitch.

Other news and notes around the league:

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