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Jiri Hudler

Snapshots: Oilers, World Cup, Hudler

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Mark Spector of Sportsnet wrote today about the Oilers’ player evaluation failures, identifying it as the main cause of their ten-year playoff drought. Spector notes the decisions to let go of former Vice President of player personnel  Scott Howson and analytics guru Tyler Dellow, and naming Keith Gretzky assistant general manager. Spector argues that Keith Gretzky has had a successful run as part of the amateur scouting staff for the Phoenix Coyotes and Boston Bruins. Bruins’ beat writer Joe Haggerty tweeted today pointing out that while his tenure with the Bruins was relatively short, Gretzky’s first pick was scoring forward David Pastrnak.

The article also defends General Manager Peter Chiarelli from the suggestion that Dellow’s release is a rejection of analytics. Saying that it was a “deliveryman issue,” Spector says that there will still be Oilers’ staff working in analytics. Those who remember Dellow’s writing before joining the Oilers will likely remember the trades of Jeff Petry, Martin Marincin, and Taylor Hall, and wonder how much input he’s had.

Here are more links from around hockey:

  • Insuring players for international tournaments is a critical issue for league participation. Gary Lawless tweets today that should unsigned players like Johnny Gaudreau, Jacob Trouba, or Sean Monahan still be without a contract, they will be insured at the league and players association’s expense. Several players sat out the 2004 World Cup because the coming lockout delayed contracts, and complicated the insurance issue.
  • TSN analytics writer Travis Yost makes the case today for a team to sign free agent forward Jiri Hudler. Hudler, 32, had 16 goals, and 46 points in 72 games with the Flames and Panthers last season, but had just one assist in six playoff games for the Panthers. Yost’s case, somewhat unconventional for an analytics writer, is based heavily on Hudler’s ability to improve his team’s shooting percentage.

Snapshots: Unsigned Restricted Free Agents, Trouba, Hudler

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The list of Restricted Free Agents has some serious star power on it, despite the calendar turning to August. Between Johnny Gaudreau, Sean Monahan, Hampus Lindholm, Rasmus Ristolainen, Nikita Kucherov, and Jacob Trouba, there are a handful of elite franchise building blocks without a contract. If you’re keeping count at home, that’s two legit number one defenseman, a possible number one in Trouba, and three high-end first line forwards. Quality players like Ryan Strome and Cody Ceci are also waiting to get contracts, having passed on their qualifying offers.

Here are some other snapshots from around the hockey world:

  • On That’s Hockey, TSN’s Gary Lawless reported that things are very quiet between Trouba and the Winnipeg Jets, saying the two sides are far apart on “everything… they’re apart on term, they’re apart on money, they’re apart on usage”. Trouba finds himself behind Dustin Byfuglien and Tyler Myers on the right side, and according to Lawless he feels he should be playing with one of the team’s top defenders. A trade involving Trouba is unlikely according to Lawless.
  • Also on TSN, Travis Yost made a strong case for UFA winger Jiri Hudler, arguing that while he’s past his prime scoring days, Hudler still has a very positive effect on his teammates. Hudler raises his team’s shooting percentage by 2.44 per cent when he’s on the ice. That ranks fourth in the NHL since 2010, behind superstars Sidney Crosby, Steven Stamkos, and the now-retired Martin St. Louis. We ranked Hudler 18th on our Top 50 Free Agents list back in June, and estimated a four-year, $16MM contract. Look for him to sign a much less expensive one-year pact with a goal-hungry team to prove he’s still got it.

Why is Jiri Hudler Still A Free Agent?

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When PHR set out to rank the top 50 unrestricted free agents, Jiri Hudler was ranked 18th and expected to be snapped up at a reasonable price. Though some reports have him possibly talking to the Vancouver Canucks, the interest for the 32-year-old forward is tepid.

So what gives?

Hudler came up with the Detroit Red Wings, and was a strong contributor to their Stanley Cup winning season in 2007-08, and then again in 2008-09 when they fell short of a repeat championship. After a one-year hiatus in the KHL during the 2009-10 season, Hudler returned to the Red Wings until the 2011-12 season. At a glance, his numbers looked like this:

  • 2007-08: 42 points (13-29)
  • 2008-09: 57 points (23-34)
  • 2010-11:  37 points (10-27)
  • 2011-12:  50 points (25-25)

Though the Red Wings didn’t offer him another contract following the 2011-12 season, Calgary did at a tune of four years, $16MM. Hudler remained a solid contributor, hitting his career high in 2014-15 with 76 points (31-45). A season prior, he registered 54 points (17-37).

Hudler’s performance fell off in 2015-16, notching 35 points (10-25) in 53 games with Calgary before being traded to Florida. There, Hudler had 11 points (6-5) in 19 games before only adding an assist in six playoff games. He had 46 points in 72 games but it was a far cry from his previous season. Florida chose to let him walk.

So why, despite boasting better numbers than several free agents already signed, does Hudler remain unemployed?

Is it Inconsistency?

Back in 2013, several writers debated whether the Red Wings should have re-signed Hudler instead of letting him go to Calgary, where he would go on to have some steady seasons. The offer from Detroit was less than what Calgary offered by $800K per season.

With Florida, he was never even offered a chance back. Despite producing well, and apparently fitting in well with the Panthers following their acquisition, there wasn’t even a hint of an extension.

Some of the problem might be his lack of defensive responsibility. Hudler was paid to put up points, so when the scoring decreased, so did the interest. Back in June, CSN Philly’s Greg Paone wrote that Hudler would have struggled in Dave Hakstol’s system should he have signed with the Flyers. Two weeks ago, Tal Pinchevsky argued in an ESPN article that he would provide production at a discount, and his playoff struggle in Florida shouldn’t be an indictment on his overall postseason performance, pointing out that Hudler had 8 points in 11 playoff games with Calgary in 2015.

Perhaps Kevin Allen summed up what most teams debated before free agency: Would they be getting the 76 point Hudler or the 46 point Hudler?

Summarizing the theories, it appears that Hudler’s decrease in production, his defensive deficiencies, and an underwhelming playoff performance with Florida all had a hand in his current predicament.

The Czech winger should find a landing spot somewhere, especially since Sam Gagner is close to a deal with the Blue Jackets. Gagner’s deal will certainly gauge what Hudler could expect. The only certainty is that it won’t come close to what he made a season ago.

Top-Line Options Remaining In Free Agency

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For many teams, free agency is a place to find a player or two to slot into your top two lines, to supplement the core you already have in place.  Edmonton went out and got Milan Lucic, to add some veteran toughness while replacing the outgoing offensive contribution of Taylor Hall. Vancouver added Loui Eriksson in a questionable move for a team who hasn’t quite decided what direction they’re headed in, and Buffalo brought on Kyle Okposo to ride shotgun with their young talent up front.

Now that the madness has died down, the market for these top-six players is extremely thin, with only a few names having established themselves there in the past.  With Shane Doan surely re-signing with the Coyotes, and Patrik Elias looking as though it’s either Devils or retirement, two of the most well known names among this group aren’t going anywhere.  Here are the other possibilities for a team to add to their top-six:

(number in parentheses represents ranking on our Top 50 UFAs)

  1. Jiri Hudler (18) – Though Hudler is now 32-years old and took a significant step back last season, he still represents one of the better second-line options available. His 46 points in 2015-16 split between the Flames and Panthers were a disappointing total for a player coming off a 31-goal, 76 point season but still ranked him right alongside players like Andrew Ladd (46 points, $38.5MM) and David Backes (45 points, $30MM).
  2. Kris Versteeg (25) – While Versteeg is probably better suited as a third-liner on a good team, he has shown the ability to move up in the lineup consistently in the past.  A three-time twenty goal scorer, Versteeg has scored at least 34 points in each of his seven healthy seasons.  He can play either wing, and brings a level of physicality to his game as well.
  3. Radim Vrbata (27) – Vrbata is clearly on the downswing of his career, having put up just 27 points and a whopping -30 mark last season.  Now 35, he’ll look to sign a cheap deal and could be a nice value signing for a team pressed against the cap. Remember, this is a guy who has over 250 career NHL goals, and is just one season removed from the second 30-goal season of his career.
  4. Alex Tanguay (33) – Though he’s now 37, Tanguay continues to produce like a second-line center, putting up another 35 point campaign despite having a much reduced role after a trade to Arizona.  For a team looking to shelter their young forwards, a veteran like Tanguay can provide some offensive punch on a cheap, short-term deal. He’ll likely break 900 points in what has been an excellent career for the former Avalanche stalwart.
  5. Brandon Pirri (NR) – Despite Pirri’s reputation as a bottom-six forward, some teams might see the former Panther as a second-line option, due to his previous goal scoring ability.  Pirri has potted 36 goals over the past two seasons, including 22 in 2014-15. The problem is that he’s racked up just 17 assists over the same time.  He was an outstanding scorer in his AHL career, and is still just 25-years old, meaning that taking a shot on him might not be the worst gamble among the remaining options.

Free Agent Profile: Jiri Hudler

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What a difference a year can make sometimes.  Two years ago, Jiri Hudler was eighth in NHL scoring with 31 goals and 45 assists in 78 games.  One year later, he’s coming off a down year and isn’t garnering a lot of looks in free agency.  Here’s a closer look at his situation.

Before last season even began, it was expected that Hudler would take a step or two back.  At no point in his NHL career had he shown flashes of being a top ten scorer so no one figured he’d be able to repeat his 76 point 2014-15 campaign.  And while Hudler certainly fell short of matching that point total, he still had a fairly strong season, recording 16 goals and 30 assists in 72 games split between Calgary and Florida, the team he was traded to just prior to the NHL’s Trade Deadline.

Statistically speaking, Hudler is a legitimate top six forward, having put up or at least played at a 40 point pace in every season since 2007-08.  So why hasn’t he received a lot of interest so far?

Working against Hudler is his size.  At just 5’10, he’s one of the smaller forwards out there and he isn’t the fastest of players either.  He’s also 32 which is around the time where players start to exit the primes of their careers.  Despite that, he should still have at least a couple of good years left in him in a second line role.

Potential Suitors

Vancouver is still looking to add top six help and is believed to have contacted Hudler’s agent, Petr Svoboda.  Ottawa also needs some more offense and could get in the discussion as the asking price drops.  The same can be said for Anaheim, New Jersey, and Carolina.  Those could all be potential fits for multi-year deals but if Hudler decides to take a one year pact, the opportunities to join a contending team should increase.

Projected Contract

We ranked Hudler 16th on our Top 50 UFA list, projecting a four year, $16MM contract.  That was under the assumption that he’d have several suitors early on in free agency.  At this point, it seems likely that he’s going to come in below that number, both in term and salary.  A one or two year pact seems more probable at this point for Hudler.

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