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Frans Nielsen

Red Wings Notes: Holland’s Signings, DeKeyser

July 28, 2016 at 11:42 am CDT | by natebrown Leave a Comment

While the Red Wings are a good $4MM over the salary cap before the season begins, general manager Ken Holland doesn’t seem too concerned about getting cap compliant by the beginning of the season. Although many writers (mostly local) have remained neutral about Holland’s work this summer, there are a few who have registered their concern with what Holland has done.

Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert warns that the Red Wings burned a lot of money on players who were overpayed to either re-sign or sign on to the team. Lambert remembers a day where the Wings only had to wonder how much stalwarts like Nick Lidstrom, Henrik Zetterberg or Pavel Datsyuk would want for compensation. Instead, Holland scorched nearly $17MM in salary cap room with the likes of Darren Helm ($3.85MM), Frans Nielsen ($5.25MM), Luke Glendening ($1.8MM), Drew Miller ($1.03MM) Thomas Vanek ($2.6MM), Steve Ott ($800K), Danny DeKeyser ($5MM), and now Petr Mrazek ($4MM). Several of those deals were lampooned by fans, Helm and Glendening especially, for being severe overpayments. Worse, it’s the re-signing of marginal forwards, namely Miller and Glendening, that have caused many to wonder if Holland is slipping.

The Windsor Star’s Bob Duff goes further, revealing that Holland’s excessive loyalty to homegrown players could cripple the Red Wings for seasons to come. Duff writes (via Hockeybuzz) that Holland has locked in an astounding $28.3MM to bottom six forwards. Compare that with top heavy teams like Chicago ($20.8MM invested in generational talents Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane), or Pittsburgh ($25MM invested between Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Phil Kessel). Such an excessive amount promised to players like Helm, Glendening, Miller, and Ott, who combined registered only 51 points, spells doom during a grueling regular season.

Such is the problem in Detroit–as Justin Abdelkader, Jonathan Ericsson, Niklas Kronwall (though he once played up to his value), and Jimmy Howard seemed to have been “rewarded” for being Red Wings. While this strategy worked well before the salary cap, this has compromised the Wings for the future. Not only does it strangle the Red Wings financially, but it also blocks the chance for young forwards Anthony Mantha, Andreas Athanasiou, Martin Frk, and to a lesser extent, Tyler Bertuzzi, from reaching the big club.

Ken Holland, as Duff writes, has painted himself into a corner. Lambert goes further, wondering if the Wings excessive payments will lead to a disappointing season result–especially without an aging, but still very good Pavel Datsyuk. With Datsyuk, the Wings were much better. Without him, well, the results weren’t as positive. Should the Red Wings flounder this season, many have to wonder if Holland will be held accountable. After all, outside of building Stanley Cup teams in 2002 and 2008 (1998 was still technically a core built by Jimmy Devellano and Scotty Bowman), Holland’s work over the past half decade has yielded three second round exits and four first round exits, including the last three seasons.

Unless Holland can pull something out of his hat to acquire a top pairing defenseman, the playoff run might be in serious jeopardy.

  • Specific criticisms have also rolled in about Holland’s deal with Danny DeKeyser. TSN’s Travis Yost writes that DeKeyser shouldn’t have gotten the deal he did. Using analytics, and “the eye test”, Yost points out that while DeKeyser is an NHL caliber defenseman, he hasn’t truly grown into the top pairing blue liner that was expected–or warranted by a deal of this magnitude. Yahoo’s Greg Wyshynski agrees, wondering if it’s yet another example of Holland “overcompensating” his own player.

 

Detroit Red Wings Depth Chart

Detroit Red Wings Danny DeKeyser| Frans Nielsen| Frans Nielsen| Jonathan Toews| Patrick Kane

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Red Wings Snapshots: Vanek, Cholowski

July 8, 2016 at 9:48 am CDT | by natebrown Leave a Comment

Though many blasted the term and money used to re-sign Darren Helm, and the idea to bring Steve Ott into the fold, there were some who appreciated the Detroit Red Wings signing of Thomas Vanek. While the Red Wings addressed a need by signing center Frans Nielsen to a six-year deal, the signing of Vanek was one that many labeled as a low risk, high reward. Vanek, who was bought out by Minnesota, inked a one-year, $2.6MM contract and is expected to boost a moribund Red Wings power play that struggled throughout the season and into the playoffs.

There is also a faction of the Wings fan base that believes Vanek prevents a young forward, namely Andreas Athanasiou or Anthony Mantha, from getting a full time spot on the roster. To answer this question and others, MLive’s Tom Mitsos quantified Vanek’s performance and possible future performance by using advanced stats. Mitsos found that as many have pointed out, Vanek appears to be on the downside of his career. Besides the obvious slide in goals, points, and being bought out by his previous team, the advanced measures of his ability don’t bode well for the 32-year-old forward.

Mitsos lists Vanek’s Corsi For percentage as the first indicator. Vanek registered a CF% of 45.45, which is considered below average in terms of puck possession metrics.  Further, Mitsos reveals a similar comparison when looking at it from a three year glance. Mitsos also points out that current forward Tomas Tatar, who has been speculated as a possible trade target, has Vanek beaten in almost every major category.

That’s not good, especially since the Red Wings are looking to move pieces to acquire a #1 defenseman, something the team has lacked for nearly five seasons. Moving a player who outpaces another who looks to be a one-year rental hardly helps the long term health of a franchise.

Mitsos concludes that should Vanek tally 20 goals this upcoming season, it would go a long way in justifying the signing. But a deeper statistical dive shows exactly what many suspected: Vanek’s better years are far behind him.

Other Red Wings news:

  • 2016 first round draft pick Dennis Cholowski has a lot to like about him writes MLive’s Brendan Savage. The Red Wings front office labeled him an “elite thinker” on the ice, and also spoke highly of his puck possession and offensive abilities. Cholowski is headed to St. Cloud State where he’s expected to develop into a top four defenseman the Red Wings can rely on to produce points. While Ken Holland cautioned fans that the Wings would take their time developing Cholowski, there’s no question their eyes are glued to the young defenseman as a future solution to their current woes on the blue line.

Detroit Red Wings| Snapshots Darren Helm| Frans Nielsen| Frans Nielsen| Thomas Vanek

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Red Wings’ Pulkkinen Out 4-6 Months

July 5, 2016 at 12:00 pm CDT | by natebrown Leave a Comment

Red Wings forward and restricted free agent Teemu Pulkkinen is out four to six months following shoulder surgery writes Navin Vaswani. MLive’s Ansar Khan tweeted that the surgery was in early June while Vaswani indicates that the winger will definitely not be ready for the season.

It’s an interesting wrinkle in that the Red Wings are trying to acquire a defenseman via a trade and Pulkkinen’s name has been one linked as possibly being moved. This could also hurt Pulkkinen as the Red Wings are overwhelmed with forwards after signing Frans Nielsen, Thomas Vanek, and Steve Ott. Not returning until possibly December could make Pulkkinen the odd man out, or all but guarantee a chance of him being packaged in a deal for a #1 or #2 defenseman. The injury only casts more doubt on where Pulkkinen fits in with Detroit.

Last season, Pulkkinen had 12 points (6-6) in 36 games, but ended up being a healthy scratch despite a booming slapshot and a dizzying scoring performance in the 2015 Calder Cup playoffs with the Grand Rapids Griffins. Pulkkinen had 14 goals in 16 playoff games, and while expected to have a better chance to compete with Jeff Blashill as the Wings bench boss, Pulkkinen never saw the ice time many thought he would.

Detroit Red Wings| Newsstand Frans Nielsen| Thomas Vanek

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Atlantic Notes: Bruins, Lightning, Maple Leafs, Red Wings

July 2, 2016 at 9:57 am CDT | by natebrown Leave a Comment

Though Puck Daddy’s Greg Wyshynski  was initially surprised by David Backes signing in Boston, further review made it understandable. Backes adds another physical, goal scoring center to a team that already includes David Krejci and Patrice Bergeron. Wyshynski does warn that Backes arrives with a lot of miles and although he’s only missed 16 games since 2008, his style of play makes the five-year deal somewhat risky near the end of the contract. Regardless, the Bruins beefed up down the middle and have a more favorable look against the best teams in the division–and conference.

Other notes from the Atlantic:

  • Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman continues his mastery of signing the team’s high end talent and Tampa Times writer Joe Smith reports that Nikita Kucherov should be the next name for Yzerman to cross off his list. Smith writes that Yzerman is optimistic a deal will get done and predicts that Kucherov could expect Filip Forsberg numbers in the range of a six-year, $36MM deal. But if there’s anything to be seen with Yzerman, it’s that he’s become a master of negotiations. Between Steven Stamkos and Victor Hedman taking what was considered significantly less money to stay in Tampa, it should be expected that Kucherov will possibly take less to stay with a team that Yzerman continues to build into an Eastern Conference force.
  • The Maple Leafs were very quiet with the exception of signing Matt Martin to a four-year, $10MM deal Friday. TSN’s Kristen Shilton writes that Leafs general manager Lou Lamoriello felt that Martin filled a need for the rebuilding organization. The move was also precipitated by bench boss Mike Babcock wanting more toughness on the roster. The Toronto Sun’s Lance Hornsby writes that while the team didn’t come out and say it, Martin’s role will be that of a bodyguard for #1 overall pick Auston Matthews, and other Leaf youngsters. Lamoriello did admit that the signing was one to make his younger players feel “freer” on the ice.
  • While the Red Wings inked Frans Nielsen, Thomas Vanek and Steve Ott, their moves weren’t applauded by everyone. The Detroit News’ Gregg Krupa wonders if general manager Ken Holland’s magic touch is beginning to wear off, and writes that the Wings’ top man shouldn’t be finished with his offseason moves quite yet. Colleague Bob Wojnowski agrees, adding that the Wings are a team “scrambling to find their way” and along with Krupa, opines that that the fanbase is growing restless with Holland’s loyalty to players like Darren Helm, who notched a five-year, $19.5MM deal before free agency opened. Craig Hagerman goes even further, writing that the Wings were one of three teams that actually got worse following Friday’s free agent frenzy. While he lauds the Nielsen signing, he questions the re-signing of Helm (registering a 30 point season twice in his career), Ott (no goals last season), and Vanek (bought out for underachieving).

Boston Bruins| Detroit Red Wings| Tampa Bay Lightning| Toronto Maple Leafs Darren Helm| David Backes| Frans Nielsen| Frans Nielsen| Nikita Kucherov

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Detroit Red Wings Sign Steve Ott

July 1, 2016 at 3:38 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

After signing Thomas Vanek and Frans Nielsen, the Red Wings have dipped back into the free agent forward market and signed veteran Steve Ott, according to Craig Custance of ESPN.  Pierre LeBrun adds that he’ll earn $800K on the one-year deal.

Formerly a highly sought after two-way forward, Ott is coming off an injury plagued season that saw him play just 21 games for the St. Louis Blues. Soon to turn 34, the long-time Dallas Star will try to provide some leadership and responsibility to the fourth line of the Red Wings.

After signing defensive liability Thomas Vanek earlier today, Ott should add some consistency in their own end and perhaps see some time on the Detroit penalty kill.  At just $800K, he’ll try to rebuild his value for one more multi-year contract after 2016-17.  If he can reclaim some of the offensive ability he showed when he scored 22 goals in 2009-10, he’ll again be a wanted man when summer rolls around.

Detroit Red Wings| Newsstand| Transactions Frans Nielsen| Frans Nielsen

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Free Agent Profile: Frans Nielsen

June 29, 2016 at 5:00 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

When you talk about free agents from Long Island this offseason, the conversation immediately goes to Kyle Okposo, the 28-year old winger who tied Steven Stamkos in points last season, or to Matt Martin, the bang-and-crash bottom six guy who everyone seems to want to add. Mostly forgotten, there is another UFA coming out of New York who should be commanding some attention.

Frans Nielsen has always been overlooked, perhaps because of his slender frame, or his Danish heritage – Denmark isn’t known for a flood of NHL players, though there have been some excellent ones – starting on draft day when he was selected deep into the third round. Nielsen has never earned more than $2.75MM in a single season, choosing to re-sign with the team who drafted him well before he became an unrestricted free agent in 2012.

He shouldn’t be overlooked any longer, as the 32-year old has put together an excellent career and comes into this offseason as a top-5 free agent, now that Stamkos and Yandle have both signed.

Potential Suitors

With, perhaps fittingly, almost no news coming out about Nielsen speaking with teams other than the Islanders, it’s a bit of a mystery where the Dane will finally end up.  There are however a few teams who seem to fit with his ability and position perfectly.

In our UFA piece we had Nielsen going to the Red Wings, and after Stamkos re-signed this afternoon that seems even more a possibility.  The club already has a young, up and coming center in Dylan Larkin who may be ready for the top line as soon as next season, so may not want to commit to the long-term deal that the other top option, David Backes, is surely to command.

While the Minnesota Wild have a young group of forwards who have shown the ability to play in the top six, they’ve also experimented with both Charlie Coyle and Mikael Granlund on the wing. If they think they’re more suited there, Nielsen makes a good choice as a steady veteran to put between them on the second line.

Expected Contract

Nielsen will be overlooked no more, as he hits this summer looking for one last big deal to finish his career on. If Backes goes early and the rest of the league views him as the next best option down the middle (which they should), he’ll look for a four or five year deal somewhere between $4.5 and $5MM per season.  If he settles for a shorter term, he might be able to push just above that $5MM mark, but it would be very surprising to see him get close to $6MM.

Detroit Red Wings| Minnesota Wild| New York Islanders| Players| Uncategorized David Backes| Dylan Larkin| Frans Nielsen| Kyle Okposo| Mikael Granlund

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Free Agent Focus: New York Islanders

June 17, 2016 at 12:48 pm CDT | by Gavin Lee Leave a Comment

The New York Islanders got back to the postseason in 2015-16, making it two straight years they’ve gotten there. The John Capuano coached team went 45-27-10 in the regular season, and advanced past the Florida Panthers before getting knocked out by the Tampa Bay Lightning. As superstar John Tavares continues to crawl toward his eventual free agency – he has two remaining seasons at $5.5MM – the team has quite a few big names to worry about this offseason.  Here’s a look at their upcoming free agents:

Key Restricted Free Agent: C Ryan Strome – The elder Strome brother and former 5th overall pick, Ryan had a somewhat disappointing season for the Isles this year. After putting up 17 goals and 50 points in his sophomore year in 2014-15, Strome only collected 28 this season while seeing less powerplay time and experiencing a drop-off in possession metrics.

Strome will turn 23 in less than a month, and is coming off his entry-level contract; he’ll be looking for a bridge deal like the one Nazem Kadri signed in 2013.  While Kadri was coming off a stronger season, he didn’t have as much history in the league as Strome does now. That deal lasted two years at $2.9MM, and while Strome might not hit that mark he’s expected to get over $2MM.

Other RFAs: Alan Quine, Shane Prince, Scott Mayfield, Christopher Gibson, Jean-Francois Berube

Key Unrestricted Free Agent: RW Kyle Okposo – After putting up a huge season, Okposo is in line for a big pay raise. The former seventh overall pick put up 64 points in 79 games, continuing what has been very strong play since 2013-14. He’s racked up 184 points during that time, ranking him 17th overall in PPG over that span among players with at least 50 GP. Coming in ahead of players like Corey Perry, Phil Kessel and Jonathan Toews, Okposo is going to get a huge contract this offseason.

As reported earlier today, it looks like the Islanders are set to move on from the winger, with GM Garth Snow wishing him luck in the future. For the team, they’ll be losing their second highest scorer and a player who has been a big part of the turnaround in New York. With the third highest, center Frans Nielsen, also being a UFA this summer the Isles are at risk of losing a substantial part of their offense on July 1st.

Other UFA: Nielsen, Eric Boulton, Matt Martin, Steve Bernier, Brian Strait, Marek Zidlicky

Projected Cap Space: $13MM, 18 players under contract.

While the Islanders seem to have their defense corps set up for next year, their forward group will have to rely on some young talent stepping up if they don’t make any big free agent splashes. 24-year old Brock Nelson put up an impressive 26 goals and will be expected to take on an even bigger role with the departures of Okposo and Nielsen.

The goaltending tandem of Jaroslav Halak and Thomas Greiss performed admirably this season, but the team may look to move one of them at some point, with Greiss entering his final contract year and Halak only with two remaining.  As they both enter their thirties, the team may look to move on as they have a number of solid prospects in the system.

Florida Panthers| New York Islanders| Tampa Bay Lightning Frans Nielsen| Free Agent Focus| Kyle Okposo| Phil Kessel| Ryan Strome

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