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Damon Severson

Free Agent Profile: Johnny Oduya

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Johnny Oduya is a name that has fallen off most hockey fanatics’ radar this off-season, and perhaps there is good reason for that. Oduya is 35 years old and came off a brutal playoff performance in their sweep against Nashville. The league is certainly trending in the “what have you done for me lately” direction, so no one should be entirely shocked that he remains unclaimed this deep into July.

That said, it’s still conceivable that he has a bounce back year. For a bargain bin price, he’s worth taking a shot on. Although his dreadful 2016-17 outing had him finish with only 9 points and an uninspiring 46.8% Corsi For, he’d been above the 50% mark the prior 5 seasons. He can lo longer handle a ton of minutes, and he will need sheltering from top competition, as many bottom-pairing defensemen do. He only averaged 18:16 of ice-time through the year, but considering that 59.3% of his zone starts were in the defensive end, he managed to hold his own. As a veteran 6th or 7th defenseman, he may still have something to offer.

Potential Suitors

The Blackhawks are seemingly always looking to re-unite with names from their past glories, but the fit may not be one Stan Bowman is willing to try again. He looked sluggish and out of sorts, and got blown by on numerous occasion by the depth players of Nashville. That said, the team will likely need at least another defenseman on the roster, so it’s not impossible. But with Duncan Keith (34), Brent Seabrook (32), and Michal Rozsival (38) already making up half the defense, do they really want to get older still?

Oduya hasn’t been definitively linked to practically anyone. It’s quite possible he’s holding on to see what opens up as teams enter training camp. Teams like the Washington Capitals, Philadelphia Flyers, and Los Angeles Kings could use another 6/7, and would be on the hunt for a bargain. The New Jersey Devils of course completely lacking on the back-end, and might want a mentor for 22 year olds Mirco Mueller, Damon Severson, and Michael Kapla. In truth, a good 50% of the league that could afford to take a chance on him for a single season, but the question remains, who will?

Ultimately, we aren’t likely to hear much chatter on this front until the arbitration period has passed. Teams want to have their organizational contracts set in stone before offering a contract to what will ultimately amount to a stop-gap defender solution.

Projected Contract

Last month, we projected a one-year, $2.5MM deal for Oduya back with Chicago, but they certainly no longer have him in their plans. We had him ranked at a respectable 32nd in a weak UFA class, but even that may have been overestimating his remaining value around the league. Oduya will likely have to settle for a one-year deal to prove he still “has it”, and the monetary value of that contract will be far less. He could always decide to play in Europe, but at the bare minimum he’ll attract at PTO, much like Cody Franson. If he does sign before the end of summer, it will likely be for under $1 MM, quite the paycut from his 2016-17 AAV of $3.75 MM.

New Jersey Devils Must Focus On Defense

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The New Jersey Devils team struggled on all aspects last season, so general manager Ray Shero concentrated the offseason on upgrading its offense and they did that successfully. They selected Nico Hischier with the first-overall pick in this year’s draft and expect him immediately contribute as a center. They traded with the capped-out Washington Capitals to acquire 26-year-old winger Marcus Johansson for a couple of draft picks. They even signed veteran Brian Boyle to add a little scoring punch on the back lines. And with some of their young players slowly emerging, the Devils offense looks to be heading in the right direction.

Not so much on defense. Their defense, which struggled on giving up shots last year, hasn’t changed at all. The team still has Andy Greene, Ben Lovejoy, Damon Severson and John Moore as their top-four defenders — the same guys who tied for sixth in most goals allowed (2.94) and finished 10th in shots allowed (31.4). With no changes on defense, don’t be shocked if those numbers don’t improve too much. To make matters worse, there is expected to be little improvement among these regulars as most of them are getting old. Greene is turning 34 and starting to slow down. Lovejoy, 33, struggled last year and was demoted off the top line. Moore had a career-high 12 goals, but struggles on defense. Only the 22-year-old Severson has future promise.

However, what options remain? According to CBS New York’s Steve Lichtenstein, Shero is “keenly aware” that the team needs to upgrade their blueline. With all their promising youth and development on offense, the team seems to have few defensive prospects at all.

Despite the team’s $19.4MM in available cap space, via CapFriendly, there isn’t much available on the free agent market. The team failed to bring over Kevin Shattenkirk at the onset of free agency. Their attempt failed as he instead inked a long-term deal with the rival Rangers. The best possibility remaining at this point would be Cody Franson, but according to Lichtenstein, he is not on Shero’s radar. Perhaps a trade can fix their defense. Vegas has too many defenders and one might be able to be had for cheap. One of them is former Devil Jonathon Merrill, who they lost to Vegas in the expansion draft, but how much of an improvement would he be if he was part of the problem in New Jersey last year. Hopefully, New Jersey has a plan.

Metropolitan Notes: Pittsburgh’s Center Search, Quenneville, Severson

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After losing Nick Bonino to Nashville in free agency, the Penguins have a vacancy to fill at their third line center position.  In a reader chat, Sam Werner of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette noted that the team has only earmarked roughly $2MM towards filling that spot which will limit their options.

While the Pens have more than $10MM in cap space at the moment, most of that will be spent when they reach new deals with winger Conor Sheary and defenseman Brian Dumoulin, both of whom are expected to go through arbitration.

The remaining UFA market is largely weak down the middle aside from Mike Fisher (who isn’t expected to leave Nashville if he returns for another season).  As things stand, Matt Cullen, Pittsburgh’s fourth line pivot this past season, is one of the more prominent names available.  Accordingly, that spot is likely going to be filled via the trade market but it’s reasonable to expect that nothing much will happen on that front until they get their remaining restricted free agents re-signed first.

Other notes from the Metropolitan:

  • Although he was drafted as a center, the Devils feel John Quenneville is best suited as a winger moving forward, AHL bench boss Rick Kowalsky told NJ Advance Media’s Chris Ryan. Kowalsky added that the 21-year-old is comfortable on both wings which could help get him to the NHL quicker.  New Jersey has a lot of talent down the middle and added number one pick Nico Hischier as well as bottom six center Brian Boyle to the mix this offseason so a position change for their top pick in 2014 was already looking like a likely outcome.
  • Still with the Devils, GM Ray Shero noted to The Record’s Andrew Gross that there’s no rush to lock up RFA blueliner Damon Severson. The 22-year-old is coming off his entry-level contract and didn’t have arbitration rights this offseason.  Shero added that there are several different options when it comes to Severson which suggests they will be exploring short-term and long-term offers in the weeks ahead.

The Weakest Position In Free Agency

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One of the big discussions going around the hockey world this week has been whether or not a team like the Toronto Maple Leafs should take a chance on an offer sheet for restricted free agent defenseman Colton Parayko. The offer sheet strategy, while allowed by the NHL collective bargaining agreement, is generally frowned upon in the sport. There is an unwritten code that you don’t poach other teams’ young talent. Those who do often pay the price by having their own prospects come under fire. There is also an actual price to pay for the practice, as offer sheets come with a steep compensatory formula. The 2017 compensation levels, just recently announced, dictate that a team would owe a third-round pick for a contract not even worth $2MM annually, while a contract north of $4MM per year would cost a first-rounder plus.

So why would a team like the Leafs entertain going after Parayko? And if they’re going to face the risk of an offer sheet, why Parayko and not another defenseman like Shayne Gostisbehere or Nikita Zadorov or even star forwards like David Pastrnak or Leon Draisaitl? The reason: Parayko represents the best free agent, restricted or unrestricted, at his position – right-shot defenseman.

Calling the right-shot defenseman grouping for this years unrestricted free agency pool “weak” is an understatement. Other than Kevin Shattenkirk, Parayko’s teammate in St. Louis and possibly the biggest name on the market at any position, you would be hard-pressed to find a single top-four defenseman and only a hand full of bona fide starters altogether. Cody Franson, under-utilized in Buffalo the past two years, is likely the next man up and the painstaking wait of the 2015 off-season showed how willing teams were to meet his salary demands. Toronto specifically already has had experience with Franson and know he is not the answer to their struggles. Behind Franson comes half of the Calgary Flames 2016-17 blue line: Dennis Wideman, Deryk Engelland, and trade deadline acquisition Michael Stone. The trio played a combined 165 man-games for the Flames this season, with Engelland and Stone playing each game of their first-round sweep by the Anaheim Ducks, and combined for just 50 points. Stone has the greatest upside, but hasn’t proved himself as a reliable top-four option and has struggled with injuries. The Flames were desperate to get Wideman out of town and Engelland has become a one-dimensional player in recent years. Next, there is Roman Polak, another former Maple Leaf. The team seems to have ruled out re-signing the veteran blue-liner and other teams should follow suit. Yannick Weber, currently playing in the Stanley Cup Final with the Nashville Predators, picked a good year to be a free agent, as his effective albeit unexciting style of play should still pay off in a weak class. After Weber? Matt Tennyson from Carolina? Paul Postma from Winnipeg? That is basically it.

This is why the Parayko-to-Toronto talk will continue. Those teams in need of a right shot near the top of their defensive depth are largely out of luck in 2017. Once Shattenkirk is off the board, which should be right away on July 1st, there are slim pickings for the rest. Best wishes to whatever righty D-needy team misses out on Shattenkirk, Franson, Stone, and Weber. There are simply no options. Unless, of course, you dip into restricted free agency. Beyond Parayko, another option is Pittsburgh’s Justin Schultz,who put up a whopping 51 points in the regular season and has 11 points (and counting) in the playoffs. The Penguins would likely be unable to match an expensive contract for Schultz if he were presented with a lucrative offer sheet. After back-to-back strong campaigns, New Jersey’s Damon Severson has proven to be a legitimate offensive defenseman and could entice the right team. Jake Dotchin had a successful rookie season, but the Lightning have a world of cap problems to solve this summer and would struggle to fit an offer sheet-inflated contract for Dotchin into the mix. Finally, even if both Alex Petrovic and Mark Pysyk survive the Expansion Draft in Florida, the Panthers may simply choose one over the other if an offer sheet were involved. The options are plenty on the restricted side of free agency, but the question remains whether any teams will be bold enough to go that route.

Devils Need To Focus On Fixing Defense

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Already stocked with the first-overall pick, the New Jersey Devils next question is how to repair their sieve of a defense that they had to endure through the 2016-17 season. This might be that year in which they can do that as they also have $21MM in projected cap space, are armed with a key trade chip of Ilya Kovalchuk and have draft assets to move if they want to take part in the expected trade flurry right before the expansion draft.

The team is in desperate need to make some changes, which includes rebuilding that blueline that gave the Devils the sixth-worst goals allowed (2.94) in the NHL last year. The Hockey Writers’ Will Agathis break down some of the current defensemen on the roster and the key is moving to a youth movement. The team’s lone bright spot is 22-year-old Damon Severson, who will be a restricted free agent this year, but started to put everything together in his third year in the league. His three goals and 28 assists highlighted the defense. However the highlights ended there.

One critical aid to the defense would be to begin limiting minutes for veteran Andy Greene and last year’s free agent acquisition Ben Lovejoy. Greene, a 34-year-old blueliner, is still a solid defender but probably is not a top-2 defenseman any longer. The veteran still has three years remaining on his contract at $5MM each. While Greene was never much of an offensive defenseman, his 13 points in each of the last two years are the lowest output since the 2008-09 season. The team will also need a bounce-back season from veteran Lovejoy, who put forth a disappointing season after signing over from the Pittsburgh Penguins last offseason. The veteran still has two years remaining at $2.67MM. It’s also suggested that he may need to move further back in the lineup.

So, who should the Devils rely on?

Agathis suggests the team should put more emphasis on their youth such as Severson and maybe even John Moore. Despite his lack of defensive presence, the 26-year-old still has time to improve on defense and just needs the ice time. He also suggests that Steven Santini and Jon Merrill should be given more ice time to prove themselves. Santini, a former second-round pick in 2013, only played in 38 games last season, but showed promise. Merrill, a second-round pick in 2010, has been inconsistent with injuries throughout his career, but also has shown flashes of promise.

However, the scribe writes the best opportunities for the Devils is to pick up some defenders through free agency and through trades. The Kovalchuk trade chip would be one great way to net a top defender, while waiting for a team to desperately trade one of the unprotected prospects before having to give them up to the Las Vegas Golden Knights for nothing would be another way to find a blueliner. Along with their cap space, the Devils may be able to totally redesign their defense in just one offseason.

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