Vegas Golden Knights & Trade Deadline Capital
As we look back at the recent NHL Expansion Draft, it seems as though the Vegas Golden Knights had a very clear plan. Three tenets seem to influence most if not all of their selections. 
- Leverage your opportunity to gain draft picks and young players in exchange for taking a bad contract.
- If unwilling to deal, take players with some value and only one or two years remaining on their contract.
- If no players like that exist, take a pending free agent to avoid burdening your cap.
Though some may look at this and see an obvious strategy, it is amazing how closely the Golden Knights followed it. A quick look at their CapFriendly page and you can immediately see that they avoided players who were under contract long-term in the draft, as they currently have 16 players that will be unrestricted free agents either next summer or the year after that. Their only long-term contracts are Reilly Smith, David Clarkson and Erik Haula—players they acquired in trade (the Wild gave them the chance to sign Haula)—and Cody Eakin, who is under contract for a third season.
That cap flexibility is paramount to the Golden Knights, as it was never about building through the expansion draft. Almost none of the assets gained through a direct selection should play much of an impact on the team long term, and because of it GM George McPhee will be holding court on another transaction season next year. The trade deadline should be hugely influenced by the Golden Knights, with a large number of assets on the market.
James Neal, David Perron and Jon Marchessault, arguably the three most prolific offensive weapons the Golden Knights selected in the draft are all UFAs next summer, and would each command a hefty price on the open market. Established goal scorers are moved each spring for big packages, and each of these three are no different.
Brayden McNabb and Luca Sbisa headline the pending UFAs on defense and could each fetch a solid return at the deadline, especially if given increased roles for Vegas. Even Jason Garrison could be of some interest if the team is willing to retain a portion of his already (at that point) prorated salary. Garrison will probably get some powerplay time with the Golden Knights to boost his value come the deadline.
Past the UFAs, the team also has several pending RFAs already in their mid-twenties. Colin Miller for example will turn 25 just after the season begins, and is three years away from unrestricted free agency. It’s unlikely that the team competes for a Stanley Cup while Miller remains a cheap option, meaning moving him in the next year could fetch the biggest return. As a puck-moving defensemen he should get plenty of opportunity to show off his offensive upside.
Though some players will be moved out before the season starts because of the simple fact they currently have too many, it’s not unlikely that the Golden Knights will be holding all the cards come February once again. They could easily have half a dozen players on any trade bait list, and add to the impressive number of draft picks they already own.
Odd Defenseman Out In Vegas
Although some of this might be attributed to wishful thinking, the Edmonton Journal’s David Staples openly wonders whether Griffin Reinhart could find his way back to Edmonton. This comes only a day after Reinhart was signed to a reasonable $800,000 deal for two-years in Vegas. Staples wonders whether the excess of defense on the left side will force Vegas to place Reinhart on waivers in an attempt to send him to the AHL. He surmises, probably correctly, that GM Peter Chiarelli would take another gamble on the player if it were to get that far. It seems incredibly unlikely he would make it to Edmonton’s position in the waiver wire, however, as many worse franchises would likely place a claim. It’s even less likely that Vegas management would risk losing that sort of asset for nothing in the first place.
Reinhart is unlikely to make an Edmonton return, but it’s not totally inconceivable that he’d be the odd man out in Vegas. The team went heavy on defense in the expansion draft, and odds are that they will eventually lose someone to the waiver wire if they can’t maneuver more moves. Once Nate Schmidt is signed, they’ll have 11 defensemen on the NHL roster, and that’s if Erik Brannstrom doesn’t make the big squad. Even assuming the Golden Knights can trade two more players, they’re not likely to carry more than 8 defensemen. Someone will be sacrificed to waivers unless GM George McPhee can pull some magic before the start of the season.
The most aged players include Jason Garrison (32), who has a no-trade clause, Deryk Engelland (35), Luca Sbisa (27), and Clayton Stoner (32). Brayden McNabb, Colin Miller, Schmidt, and Shea Theodore will likely constitute the team’s future defense, and it might be difficult for Reinhart to crack that group. Brad Hunt and Jon Merrill are the least likely to attract any major attention if they were to be waived, so there is no necessity to start floundering yet. Hunt in particular would pass with almost no difficulty, as the 5’9, 28-year old defender hasn’t been overly impressive in his 33 career NHL games. Still, depending on who else is moved and whether Reinhart makes an impact at training camp, he could be seen as a non-core piece. McPhee will need to make a determination as to who will be getting major playing time, considering that at this moment things are far too crowded for the younger players to shine.
McNabb, Schmidt, and Miller seem the safest for the moment, but anything can happen. The right side has to be a concern, as only Engelland and Miller naturally play that position. As for now, we’ll have to wait and see who gets unloaded for picks and future assets, and whether they will be much difficulty in doing so. It seems unlikely that Vegas would move Reinhart, a young piece who they just re-signed, considering that if nothing else he can fill a 7th or 8th defensive position. Sbisa and Stoner seem to be the most likely to move out to a team starved for defensive depth, especially considering their contracts are each only good for one more season.
Vegas Still Has To Deal Multiple Defensemen
The Vegas Golden Knights still have a lot of work left for them as the offseason continues. The team was heavily commended for focusing on drafting defense in the expansion draft several weeks ago and from there flipping those players for picks as Golden Knights general manager George McPhee has stated numerous times that they are building for the next five years. The team has stockpiled a large number of draft picks since then and still have a number of players to trade, whether that will be now or at the trade deadline next season.
However, they seem to have one issue that they must address before the season starts. Despite trading a bunch of defenseman for picks, the team still has a surplus of defensemen on its roster and the market is beginning to dry up. The team has already traded Trevor van Riemsdyk to Carolina, David Schlemko to Montreal and Marc Methot to Dallas for picks. Just last week, the team moved Alexei Emelin to Nashville, but they had to retain $1.1MM of his salary in order to make the deal work.
The team currently has 11 defensemen with NHL experience on its roster, which is about four or five defensemen too many. The team has made it clear that it doesn’t want to trade its young defensemen, so it’s the veterans they want to trade. The last thing the Golden Knights want to do is be forced to play veterans like Jason Garrison, Clayton Stoner and Luca Sbisa over their younger, but more than ready defensemen. The problem is that Garrison, Stoner and Sbisi are struggling players on expensive contracts. While all three players have only one year on their contracts remaining, Garrison will get $4.6MM, Stoner receives $3.25MM and Sbisi will make $3.6MM next season.
Garrison, 32, has lost a step and found himself being demoted to the bottom of the Tampa Bay Lightning’s depth chart. His salary forced Tampa Bay to offer Vegas two draft picks and Russian prospect Nikita Gusev to take him in the expansion draft. Stoner has dealt with numerous injuries in the last few years and Anaheim had to offer Shea Theodore to make Vegas take Stoner, but after playing just 14 games for the Ducks last year and a declining game, who would want him and that salary? Sbisi is just 27, but he struggled with Vancouver and with his salary may not have much trade value either, but he might be their best hope to make a deal.
The point, of course, is that Vegas will want to play their young defensemen like Theodore, Nate Schmidt, Colin Miller, Brayden McNabb, Jonathon Merrill and maybe even Griffin Reinhart. So, the team must do something to avoid the logjam. There are other options as well. Like Emelin, they could retain some of these players’ salaries in hopes a team would take some of them off their hands. They could wait till training camp and watch for teams that still have holes or suffer injuries that need filling. Another option would be to buy them out or even just sit them in favor of their younger players. However, one would hope Vegas has a plan in place.