Poll: Which Teams Will Buck The Thanksgiving Playoff Trend In 2019-20?
Just how important is playoff position in just the second month of the regular season? Very, if you look at recent results. Over the past six years, more than 70% of teams in a playoff position at American Thanksgiving have held on to their spot. While last year was slightly below the mark – 11 of 16 teams (69%) in a playoff position on November 22 qualified – the standings at the time were even more predictive than usual. The Lightning, Predators, Flames, Maple Leafs, Jets, and Sharks all finished in the same divisional seed that they occupied at Thanksgiving.
So who were the outliers in 2018-19? Obviously, the St. Louis Blues’ return from the basement of the league standings to win the Stanley Cup is a story that will stand the test of time. However, four other clubs also turned their seasons around: the Islanders, Penguins, Hurricanes, and Golden Knights. And the teams whose seasons took a turn for the worse: the Sabres, Wild, Rangers, Canadiens, and Ducks. Ironically, the Canadiens were narrowly inside the playoff window on Thanksgiving and ended up just barely outside in the spring. Meanwhile, the Ducks, Oilers, and Coyotes were all tied for the lowest playoff-qualifying record on Thanksgiving, with the Ducks getting the tiebreaker at the time, and all three failed to qualify for the postseason.
This season has gotten off to an unpredictable start, which could potentially threaten to derail the Thanksgiving trend. Several teams considered Cup contenders are currently outside the playoff picture, while multiple surprises currently occupy a spot. With Thanksgiving arriving tomorrow, this is the current status of the NHL standings (reminder – points percentage is the ideal way of viewing NHL standings):
Eastern Conference
M1 New York Islanders (.773)
A1 Boston Bruins (.771)
M2 Washington Capitals (.740)
M3 Carolina Hurricanes (.646)
A2 Tampa Bay Lightning (.619)
A3 Florida Panthers (.604)
W1 Pittsburgh Penguins (.625)
W2 Philadelphia Flyers (.604)
Outside the Playoff Picture: Montreal Canadiens (.563), New York Rangers (.545), Columbus Blue Jackets (.522), Buffalo Sabres (.521), Toronto Maple Leafs (.520), Ottawa Senators (.479), New Jersey Devils (.435), Detroit Red Wings (.327)
Western Conference
C1 St. Louis Blues (.680)
P1 Edmonton Oilers (.673)
C2 Dallas Stars (.615)
C3 Colorado Avalanche (.609)
P2 Arizona Coyotes (.620)
P3 Vancouver Canucks (.560)
W1 Winnipeg Jets (.604)
W2 Nashville Predators (.543)
Outside the Playoff Picture: San Jose Sharks (.540), Chicago Blackhawks (.521), Anaheim Ducks (.500), Vegas Golden Knights (.500), Calgary Flames (.481), Minnesota Wild (.480), Los Angeles Kings (.417)
2018-19 playoff teams jump off the page as potential candidates to disrupt the status quo. Particularly in the Pacific Division, it is hard to image none of the Golden Knights – who beat the Thanksgiving odds last year – the Sharks or the Flames will make the playoffs, especially as they look up at the Oilers, Coyotes, and Canucks. There could also be hope in West for the Ducks and Blackhawks, who sit at .500 currently. Over in the East, the Maple Leafs stick out like a sore thumb among non-playoff teams and could be line for improvement following their coaching change. But will it be enough given their difficult start? The Canadiens will also hope for a reverse of fortunes from last year, going from first team out in the conference at Thanksgiving to in the postseason come April. The Sabres have started hot and collapsed two years in a row, but there is still time for them to turn things back around. All three Atlantic clubs see a Panthers team with plenty of problems ahead of them in the standings right now. Meanwhile, the Rangers and Blue Jackets will look to make an unlikely run to the postseason as they chase down the Flyers.
What do you think? Which of these teams will find their way into the playoff picture and which will fall victim to the Thanksgiving postseason trend? Select as many teams below as you like, but remember that for every addition, there has to be a subtraction of a current playoff team.
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Snapshots: Letang, Brouwer, Rantanen
The Pittsburgh Penguins will have Kris Letang back in the lineup tonight after he was activated from injured reserve today. The veteran defenseman has been out since November 4th, but the team actually went 4-1-3 without him and are still in good shape in the Eastern Conference standings.
Letang has dealt with injuries almost every season of his career, but still sits as one of the most productive defensemen in the league whenever he is on the ice. If he can get back to full speed quickly the Penguins should be a real contender for a Metropolitan Division playoff spot, though they’ll have to catch one of the three leaders to secure one.
- Troy Brouwer‘s work visa issues have been resolved, meaning he is ready to jump into the lineup for the St. Louis Blues. Klim Kostin has been returned to the minor leagues to make room for Brouwer, after just scoring his first NHL goal on Saturday night. Kostin obviously wasn’t long for the NHL if he was going to get just a handful of minutes every game, as the team wants him to continue to develop as a top-end player.
- Mikko Rantanen has watched every Colorado Avalanche game in a suit for the past month, but that might be coming to an end very soon. The big Finnish forward practiced today and wasn’t completely ruled out for Wednesday’s game against the Edmonton Oilers. Even if he is eventually held out for that game, his presence back on the ice is a good sign he will be returning soon. Rantanen had 12 points in his first nine games before suffering a lower-body injury and will likely go right back to the top line beside Nathan MacKinnon upon his return.
Metropolitan Notes: Merzlikins, Letang, Kreider, Koivula
After a rocky debut, rookie goaltender Elvis Merzlikins looked to have settled in as a solid option in net for the Columbus Blue Jackets and head coach John Tortorella. However, the 25-year-old netminder made a costly mistake late in Saturday night’s game that cost the team a much-needed victory.
With less than two minutes remaining in the game, Merzlikins played a puck and cleared it out through the middle of the ice to no player in particular. The puck was immediately picked off by Winnipeg’s Andrew Copp, who fired it right back at the goal and gave the Jets a 4-3 victory.
After the game, Tortorella immediately told the press that if anyone asked a question about his goalie, he would immediately walk out. However, The Athletic’s Aaron Portzline (subscription required) suggests that a demotion to the Cleveland Monsters of the AHL is unlikely. The team has another back-to-back next week, which means Merzlikins isn’t likely to go anywhere as this was a judgement mistake, not a lack of experience mistake.
- TribLive’s Seth Rorabaugh reports that the Pittsburgh Penguins may be close to getting Kris Letang back in their lineup. The veteran blueliner, who has been out with an undisclosed injury since Nov. 4, returned to practice on Sunday and participated in the full practice in a full-contact jersey, which might suggest he’s closer to ready than most thought. Head coach Mike Sullivan said he’s hopeful that Letang will be available on Monday at home against Calgary, who had Letang practicing with the first power-play unit today. “His practice today was very encouraging,” coach Mike Sullivan said. “We’ll see how he responds overnight but my sense is he’ll be a game-time decision (Monday).”
- Sportsnet’s Eric Engels reports that there will be no supplementary discipline against the New York Rangers’ Chris Kreider and his hit on Montreal Canadiens forward Tomas Tatar (video here). While initial looks at the hit made it seem like it was a headshot, second looks suggest the hit wasn’t meant for Tatar’s head, rather a shoulder hit.
- Historically a critic of young players including recent criticism for top prospect Oliver Wahlstrom several weeks ago, New York Islanders head coach Barry Trotz praised another rookie, forward Otto Koivula. Despite seeing a season-low 6:32 of ice time in his fourth NHL game, Trotz still felt that Koivula can be trusted on the ice, especially on the defensive end. “I trust him in the defensive zone more than anything,” Trotz said. “He’s really sound in the defensive zone. He feels like he’s got more time and space with the puck than probably he really does. If there’s anything that’s gotten him in trouble in the few games, it’s that. But I have a lot of trust in putting him on the ice.”
Metropolitan Notes: Murray, Gostisbehere, Gardiner
Pittsburgh Penguins goaltender Matt Murray has been criticized for many things, but playing too much has never been one of those. Regardless, Murray has seen the ice quite a bit already this season and if he continues to play as much as he has, Murray will easily break his season-high in minutes played. Last season, the 25-year-old netminder played 2,880 minutes, but Murray has already broken 1,000 minutes at just the quarter-point of the season.
While it’s nice to see Murray thriving without injury concerns, TribLive’s Seth Rorabaugh wonders whether the team might be smarter to cut down on Murray’s workload, considering how well backup Tristan Jarry has played in limited opportunity. While Murray has been solid with a injury-plagued team in front of him, boasting a 2.60 GAA and a .903 save percentage in 18 appearances, the 24-year-old Jarry has done even better with a 1.80 GAA and a .945 save percentage in six appearances.
With the team only using Jarry on the second night of back-to-back games, it might be time to give the backup more playing time in hopes of avoiding wearing down Murray later in the season.
- Although the expansion draft remains far off, the summer of 2021, The Athletic’s Charlie O’Connor (subscription required) looks at possible scenarios of who the team might protect down the road. He notes that with the signing of center Kevin Hayes, who carries a no-movement clause with him, and the emergence of Oskar Lindblom, the team may have to make a major decision with their defense. The scribe writes that with the disappointing play of defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere, who continues to struggle this year after a poor 2018-19 season, could find himself on the outside looking in when it comes to what players the Flyers may keep.
- In her most recent mailbag, The Athletic’s Sara Civian (subscription required) writes that Carolina Hurricanes defenseman Jake Gardiner, who the team quietly signed in the offseason, continues to struggle as a third-pairing option. With fewer minutes than he is used to, the risk-taking blueliner has made quite a few defensive miscues as the team has scored 10 goals when he’s on the ice, but the Hurricanes have allowed 19 at the same time. Gardiner has just one goal and five assists, while sporting just a 3.7 percent shooting percentage on 27 shots. The hope is he can eventually work his way to a second-pairing option.
Penguins Assign Joseph Blandisi To Wilkes-Barre/Scranton
- Joseph Blandisi is back on his way to AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton, per a Penguins team release. The 25-year-old has a goal and an assist in nine games with Pittsburgh this season but had been a healthy scratch over their past two games. The Pens are off until Monday so the move may just be to bank a little bit of cap space as well.
Justin Schultz, Nick Bjugstad Out Long-Term
The Pittsburgh Penguins can’t catch a break. The team has announced that Nick Bjugstad underwent core muscle surgery and will be out at least eight weeks, after head coach Mike Sullivan told reporters it would be “longer-term” earlier this week. That’s exactly the way he has now also described the injury to Justin Schultz, who suffered a lower-body injury and will be out “longer-term.” If there is a sliver of good news to be had, Patric Hornqvist has been activated from injured reserve.
It’s been a disastrous season so far for the Penguins, who have now lost Hornqvist, Bjugstad, Schultz, Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin and Kris Letang for long stretches. That’s the core of their group, but somehow they’ve still managed to put up a 11-7-3 record.
While losing Bjugstad hurts, it’s likely not nearly as painful as seeing Schultz go out for any length of time. The 29-year old was hoping for a big bounce-back season after missing a huge part of 2018-19, and he was off to a good start. Schultz had eight points in 21 games and was logging nearly 21 minutes a night for the Penguins.
Minor Transactions: 11/21/19
Even though a lot of hockey media will be closely monitoring Sheldon Keefe‘s debut as head coach of the Toronto Maple Leafs, there are a number of other teams suiting up tonight for games just as important. 25 others in fact, as 13 games are scheduled for tonight including Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl back in action against the Los Angeles Kings. As teams prepare for the big night, we’ll track all the minor moves right here.
- After last night’s game, the Montreal Canadiens sent Charles Hudon back to the AHL. The team seems likely to recall him again for their game on Saturday night, saving a few cap dollars in the process.
- The Pittsburgh Penguins have recalled Zach Trotman from the minor leagues after Justin Schultz missed practice yesterday. It’s not clear if Schultz will miss any real time, but the team obviously needed an insurance plan.
- Matt Martin has been activated from injured reserve by the New York Islanders, who will have him back in the lineup tonight against the Penguins. Martin has been out for nearly a month but is expected back beside Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck.
- Kevin Rooney meanwhile has been moved to injured reserve by the New Jersey Devils. The move is retroactive to November 13th, meaning the team can activate him at any time.
Pittsburgh Penguins, Chicago Blackhawks Complete Minor Trade
The Pittsburgh Penguins have acquired Graham Knott from the Chicago Blackhawks in exchange for Joseph Cramarossa. Knott will be assigned to the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins immediately, while Cramarossa is headed to the Rockford IceHogs.
This move doesn’t look like it will have much of an impact at the NHL level, given that Knott has spent this season in the ECHL and Cramarossa hasn’t sniffed the NHL since the 2016-17 season. The pair of minor league forwards will get fresh starts in new organizations to try and keep their careers moving forward.
Pittsburgh does get the younger player, as Knott is still just 22. Selected in the second round of the 2015 draft he hasn’t been able to produce much at the minor league level and will likely go unqualified this summer at the expiry of his entry-level contract. Cramarossa meanwhile is also an unrestricted free agent at the end of this season and is just minor league depth at this point.
Latest On Tyson Barrie
With the Toronto Maple Leafs floundering near the bottom of the Eastern Conference and on a six-game losing streak, chatter has started building around some of their pending unrestricted free agents. Tyson Barrie in particular has looked like a fish out of water in Toronto after an offseason trade brought him to the Maple Leafs, and with his relatively low cap hit—the Colorado Avalanche retained salary in the deal so Barrie costs just $2.75MM this season—he has drawn interest from around the league.
Still, Toronto doesn’t seem eager to make a move. Speaking with Mike Zeisberger of NHL.com this week, Maple Leafs’ GM Kyle Dubas preached patience when it comes to evaluating players:
I think the reality is, especially when you have a player with a long proven track record, I think you can make some major mistakes by being hasty and not trying to dig in to what you’re seeing on video, what you’re seeing in games, what you’re seeing via data or finding out from the player how they feel. You’ve got to dig into those aspects to try to find a solution to get that player to play to their potential.
Barrie, 28, still hasn’t scored a single goal this season after recording double-digit totals in five of the last six years. The fact that he has just seven assists is incredibly troubling as well, given he is coming off a 59-point campaign with Colorado last season. Some of that is not running the first powerplay in Toronto (a spot that Morgan Rielly holds), but there has been an obvious mismatch in system and style for Barrie in Toronto.
Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet included a note on Barrie in his recent 31 Thoughts column, writing that there is “definitely an understanding from all parties that this isn’t working so far.” Not only does the veteran defenseman have to worry about the Maple Leafs turning things around, but his value on the open market is also dropping daily.
Barrie was set to be one of the most sought-after defensemen in free agency, but with a contract season like this it’s unclear where his market will end up.
Nick Bjugstad Out “Longer-Term” With Lower-Body Injury
The Pittsburgh Penguins have suffered another injury. Head coach Mike Sullivan updated the media today and explained that though Nick Bjugstad was still being evaluated, he expects the big forward to be out “longer-term.” Bjugstad exited the game on Friday against the New Jersey Devils when he fell awkwardly into the boards.
Sullivan did announce that Patric Hornqvist is getting closer and that Kris Letang has resumed skating on his own, but isn’t ready for practice yet. The team is also still without Sidney Crosby as he recovers from his sports hernia surgery.
Bjugstad, 27, was already injured earlier this year and missed several games, limiting his impact for the team. In ten contests—two of which have been cut short by injury—he has just a single goal and zero assists. That’s a far cry from the nine goals and 14 points he registered in just 32 games for them following a trade from the Florida Panthers last season, and even further from the 24-goal campaign he put up as a 22-year old in 2014-15.
Selected 19th overall in 2010, Bjugstad has been something of a disappointment so far in his NHL career, dealing with injuries almost every season and not finding much consistency when he was on the ice. His absence will be missed however, given the other health concerns the team has at forward.