The Hurricanes have been near the top of the NHL standings for the bulk of the last decade. They’ve made several deep playoff runs during that time.
Despite being an analytically advanced and disciplined club, the team has just been unable to advance past the Eastern Conference Finals and fell once again this year in the third round of the playoffs. The Hurricanes are close and have been close for a while, but every year, something has been missing. The team hasn’t been able to put it all together.
Just what those missing links are has been hotly debated. One certainty is that a lack of elite finishing talent has been something that has eluded the Hurricanes for quite some time.
Carolina generates a heavy number of shots and scoring opportunities, but doesn’t have an elite 40-plus goal talent that can break games open on their own. The Hurricanes have brought those players into the fold, but they haven’t been able to keep them.
Last year at the trade deadline, the Canes acquired Jake Guentzel from the Penguins only to lose him after 28 games (17 regular season and 11 playoffs). This season, they traded for Mikko Rantanen in late January, only to trade him away after 13 games, after a disappointing stretch of play and lack of extension talks.
It’s not as though Carolina struggles to score as a team. They finished ninth in goals scored this season.
However, when the games tighten up in the playoffs and goals become more challenging to come by, the Hurricanes struggle to capitalize on the chances they generate. That’s never been more evident than in this year’s series against the Panthers, when they posted just 10 goals in five games.
Carolina has nearly $28.5MM in available cap space and just three roster spots to fill for next season, according to PuckPedia. That puts them in a very advantageous position if they want to go big game hunting in free agency and take a run at Mitch Marner or Nikolaj Ehlers.
The issue here is that Marner and Ehlers aren’t exactly snipers, so they might not be the right target for Carolina. However, on the RFA market, JJ Peterka of the Sabres could be available, and at age 23, he is coming off 28 and 27-goal seasons.
Another issue that has plagued Carolina is that their goaltending has been solid but unspectacular. Frederik Andersen, Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov have been a formidable platoon over the last few years, but have been unable to steal a series when they’ve been deep in the playoffs.
It wouldn’t be fair to place blame on the goaltending. However, in the third round, teams need their goaltender to steal them a game or two if they hope to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals.
It’s unlikely that the Hurricanes make a change next season as they have both Andersen and Kochetkov signed to deals at an affordable combined rate of $4.75MM. The old cliché that ’if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it’ applies here, as it’s hard to fault the goaltending. However, Carolina shouldn’t expect their current platoon to steal them many games later in the playoffs, given that they haven’t been able to do so in the past.
In previous years, the Hurricanes have dealt with injuries to key players during the playoffs, such as Andrei Svechnikov and Teuvo Teräväinen. This year, their stars were healthy, but they still dealt with a pair of injuries to right-shot defenseman Sean Walker and Jalen Chatfield. Rookies Scott Morrow and Alexander Nikishin had to make their postseason debuts in their absence, and the former looked especially overmatched.
The Canes have been blessed for years with an incredible amount of depth and have been able to overcome injuries to their key players. However, when a star like Svechnikov goes down, there is no way to overcome it without more high-level finishing talent.
Even championship teams can fall in the playoffs if they lose a top-six winger or top-four defenseman. Pittsburgh dealt with this on several occasions during the primes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin when they lost multiple top-end pieces.
In 2011, the Penguins were a Stanley Cup favorite until both stars went down to injury, and the Penguins fell in the first round to Tampa Bay. In 2015, it was their defense that took a beating as the Penguins lost three of their top four defensemen, and again, Pittsburgh was bounced in the first round.
However, in 2016 and 2017, Pittsburgh overcame injuries to Marc-André Fleury and Kris Letang to win back-to-back Cups, eventually dispelling the injury excuse and achieving success despite not having full use of their roster. If Carolina wants to take the next step, they will need to do the same and overcome the adversity of losing essential pieces if and when it happens.
The Penguins teams of 2016 and 2017 relied heavily on their star power to overcome the injuries and obstacles. At some point, the Hurricanes will need the same if they hope to take the next step.
You can’t fault the stars for Carolina’s losses, as Sebastian Aho has been nearly a point-a-game player in his playoff career, and Svechnikov has been good in the last two playoffs. It comes back to the issue of not having enough firepower to help the stars that are there. Unless Carolina can add some elite scoring, as well as have their goalies steal some games in the latter stages of the playoffs, they might end up back here again next year.
Perhaps the tweak doesn’t need to be as dramatic as adding high-end forwards, but rather prioritizing the finding of players who can capitalize on the many high-danger chances they generate. The Hurricanes had just two players (who played more than 20 games) who shot over 15% last year, while a team like the lowly Sabres had five players do so.
Finding players who can capitalize on scoring opportunities won’t come easily, but there are a few players out there that Carolina could target. The aforementioned Rust and Rakell both shot north of 15%, as did Peterka.
Vancouver’s Brock Boeser is another player who has shot the lights out over the last two seasons, firing at a rate of 19.6% during 2023-24 and 17.2% this past season. Matt Duchene would be another potential target after shooting 19.7% this past year. Both are pending unrestricted free agents
The issue with targeting players who have a high shooting percentage is that there can be significant fluctuations in the numbers, and those players tend to have inflated perceived value, which can drive up the cost to acquire them. If the Hurricanes wanted to go cheaper, there are plenty of options available who can shoot with precision.
Washington’s Andrew Mangiapane is a career 14.4% shooter and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer; his value declined this past year after he posted just 28 points (14 goals and 14 assists) in 81 games. Jonathan Toews could be another target if he does indeed return. Toews hasn’t played since the 2022-23 season, but he is a career 13.8% shooter and shot 17.2% in his final season two years ago.
Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
