The Hurricanes have been near the top of the NHL standings for the bulk of the last decade. They’ve made several deep playoff runs during that time.
Despite being an analytically advanced and disciplined club, the team has just been unable to advance past the Eastern Conference Finals and fell once again this year in the third round of the playoffs. The Hurricanes are close and have been close for a while, but every year, something has been missing. The team hasn’t been able to put it all together.
Just what those missing links are has been hotly debated. One certainty is that a lack of elite finishing talent has been something that has eluded the Hurricanes for quite some time.
Carolina generates a heavy number of shots and scoring opportunities, but doesn’t have an elite 40-plus goal talent that can break games open on their own. The Hurricanes have brought those players into the fold, but they haven’t been able to keep them.
Last year at the trade deadline, the Canes acquired Jake Guentzel from the Penguins only to lose him after 28 games (17 regular season and 11 playoffs). This season, they traded for Mikko Rantanen in late January, only to trade him away after 13 games, after a disappointing stretch of play and lack of extension talks.
It’s not as though Carolina struggles to score as a team. They finished ninth in goals scored this season.
However, when the games tighten up in the playoffs and goals become more challenging to come by, the Hurricanes struggle to capitalize on the chances they generate. That’s never been more evident than in this year’s series against the Panthers, when they posted just 10 goals in five games.
Carolina has nearly $28.5MM in available cap space and just three roster spots to fill for next season, according to PuckPedia. That puts them in a very advantageous position if they want to go big game hunting in free agency and take a run at Mitch Marner or Nikolaj Ehlers.
The issue here is that Marner and Ehlers aren’t exactly snipers, so they might not be the right target for Carolina. However, on the RFA market, JJ Peterka of the Sabres could be available, and at age 23, he is coming off 28 and 27-goal seasons.
Another issue that has plagued Carolina is that their goaltending has been solid but unspectacular. Frederik Andersen, Antti Raanta and Pyotr Kochetkov have been a formidable platoon over the last few years, but have been unable to steal a series when they’ve been deep in the playoffs.
It wouldn’t be fair to place blame on the goaltending. However, in the third round, teams need their goaltender to steal them a game or two if they hope to advance to the Stanley Cup Finals.
It’s unlikely that the Hurricanes make a change next season as they have both Andersen and Kochetkov signed to deals at an affordable combined rate of $4.75MM. The old cliché that ’if it isn’t broke, don’t fix it’ applies here, as it’s hard to fault the goaltending. However, Carolina shouldn’t expect their current platoon to steal them many games later in the playoffs, given that they haven’t been able to do so in the past.
In previous years, the Hurricanes have dealt with injuries to key players during the playoffs, such as Andrei Svechnikov and Teuvo Teräväinen. This year, their stars were healthy, but they still dealt with a pair of injuries to right-shot defenseman Sean Walker and Jalen Chatfield. Rookies Scott Morrow and Alexander Nikishin had to make their postseason debuts in their absence, and the former looked especially overmatched.
The Canes have been blessed for years with an incredible amount of depth and have been able to overcome injuries to their key players. However, when a star like Svechnikov goes down, there is no way to overcome it without more high-level finishing talent.
Even championship teams can fall in the playoffs if they lose a top-six winger or top-four defenseman. Pittsburgh dealt with this on several occasions during the primes of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin when they lost multiple top-end pieces.
In 2011, the Penguins were a Stanley Cup favorite until both stars went down to injury, and the Penguins fell in the first round to Tampa Bay. In 2015, it was their defense that took a beating as the Penguins lost three of their top four defensemen, and again, Pittsburgh was bounced in the first round.
However, in 2016 and 2017, Pittsburgh overcame injuries to Marc-André Fleury and Kris Letang to win back-to-back Cups, eventually dispelling the injury excuse and achieving success despite not having full use of their roster. If Carolina wants to take the next step, they will need to do the same and overcome the adversity of losing essential pieces if and when it happens.
The Penguins teams of 2016 and 2017 relied heavily on their star power to overcome the injuries and obstacles. At some point, the Hurricanes will need the same if they hope to take the next step.
You can’t fault the stars for Carolina’s losses, as Sebastian Aho has been nearly a point-a-game player in his playoff career, and Svechnikov has been good in the last two playoffs. It comes back to the issue of not having enough firepower to help the stars that are there. Unless Carolina can add some elite scoring, as well as have their goalies steal some games in the latter stages of the playoffs, they might end up back here again next year.
Perhaps the tweak doesn’t need to be as dramatic as adding high-end forwards, but rather prioritizing the finding of players who can capitalize on the many high-danger chances they generate. The Hurricanes had just two players (who played more than 20 games) who shot over 15% last year, while a team like the lowly Sabres had five players do so.
Finding players who can capitalize on scoring opportunities won’t come easily, but there are a few players out there that Carolina could target. The aforementioned Rust and Rakell both shot north of 15%, as did Peterka.
Vancouver’s Brock Boeser is another player who has shot the lights out over the last two seasons, firing at a rate of 19.6% during 2023-24 and 17.2% this past season. Matt Duchene would be another potential target after shooting 19.7% this past year. Both are pending unrestricted free agents
The issue with targeting players who have a high shooting percentage is that there can be significant fluctuations in the numbers, and those players tend to have inflated perceived value, which can drive up the cost to acquire them. If the Hurricanes wanted to go cheaper, there are plenty of options available who can shoot with precision.
Washington’s Andrew Mangiapane is a career 14.4% shooter and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer; his value declined this past year after he posted just 28 points (14 goals and 14 assists) in 81 games. Jonathan Toews could be another target if he does indeed return. Toews hasn’t played since the 2022-23 season, but he is a career 13.8% shooter and shot 17.2% in his final season two years ago.
Photo by Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports
Canes are just losers and their fans insufferable
How so?
Bunch of jerks
They could really use someone like Guentzel or Rantanen.
Predictions on how Guentzel or Rantanen will perform in the Stanley Cup Final?
Typical Canes fan. Misses the point. Tampa Bay and Dallas have their own problems. Carolina’s problem is they need a top end talent who can score… but you just keep pretending. I’m already looking forward to next year’s playoff exit and excuses.
Marner fits Rod’s system, which Rantanan realized quickly, he did not. I’d love a trade for Karlsson as Burns and Orlov will be gone.
Why on earth would Marner sign in Carolina?
He only cares about a max contract?
Because it’s the complete opposite of Toronto and Carolina has cash. He’s got a newborn and you can ask any of the guys who’ve settled there that it’s a great place to raise a family.
The complete opposite of Toronto isn’t a team that has it’s own problems in the playoffs.
And then there’s the money thing. “Carolina has cash”… maybe you should ask your owner about the power of the almighty dollar. They had the cash with Rantanen… they had the cash with Guentzel. You Canes fans… you really don’t get it. What you guys think of as “smarts”… it’s bad business.
When your best player signs an offer sheet with another team…
When you offer sheet a guy out of spite…
When you repeatedly low-ball the best coach in the league…
When you don’t resign the best broadcaster in hockey over pennies…
When you try and get your big TDL acquisition on the cheap…
…it’s bad business.
I’ll ask again, why on earth would Marner sign in Carolina?
They have the same problem as LAK. Good team with no superstar. Except Carolina has a mountain of cap room but can never use it
The Canes have spent up to the cap every year since Dundon has been the owner.
Not sure what urban cocker has been smoking, but Canes fans are great and the team is hardly “losers,” as it consistently finishes in the top eight (top four this year, which exceeded expectations).
Nevertheless, the Canes need to get over the hump and win another cup.
IMHO, here’s some things that need to happen:
1. Like the article says, get a high-scoring elite player who will have chemistry with Aho like Guentzel did.
2. Trade or buy out Kotkaneimi—he’s a bust at 2C (and even 4C) and is not going to improve.
3. Get an “anti-Aho” for second line center—somebody’s who is big, tough, and elite. The center core on the Canes is incredibly weak.
4. Get a scoring RHD who can play with Jaccob Slavin.
5. Tweak RBA’s forechecking system to include some scoring on rushes (gotta have some elite players to do that). Not saying get rid of it, but it’s got to adapt.
6. Stop playing so much man-to-man defense. Lot’s of defensive errors this year when somebody’s man went uncovered by anyone else.
7. Get meaner and faster with replacements for Robinson, Roslovic, and Orlov.
8. Keep Blake on the 4th line and take him off the 1PPU—he’s not ready for prime time yet. Send Morrow back to the AHL.
Tulsky has a lot to accomplish this offseason, but they have the cap-space to do it.
Agree on most of that, minus KK. No, he’s not a 2c. He was put there and overmatched. He’s more of a 3/4. He’d be fine in that role, but he’s SO overpaid and that’s not his fault.
Everyone had high hopes for KK—remember the offer sheet? He never became more than a mediocre player, despite the long-term $4.75 million contract. He’s been an albatross around the Canes’ neck and they need to get rid of him. I much prefer Jankowski and Staal as the 3/4 centers.
Certain teams are (for lack of a better term) “over-coached”.
Some coaches just get maximum effort out of average groups. These teams then get exposed when every team is playing with max effort.
Or some coaches just put more time and effort into X’s and O’s and player preparation during the regular season which gives them an advantage over teams that just want to “play their game”. These teams then get exposed when every coaching staff is doing max game planning for a specific playoff opponent.
The reason the Canes can’t keep elite talent is simple. If you’re a star like a Rantanen, do you want to play in a system that encourages hard work over skill? Carolina’s approach is to get over the blue line and fire the puck at the net. Then retrieve it and shoot it again. And keep repeating it until they get a break and an easy goal. Very few elite players are interested in a system that reduces their skill to a pluggers level. Brind’Amour wins games because he gets total buy-in from his players, which is great, but it only takes them so far. It’s no mystery that when they get up against good teams like Florida that can do what they do only better, they can’t advance. You need gamebreakers and Rod’s system doesn’t attract them.
Rantanen didn’t want to play in Raleigh because his fiance loves the nightlife and wasn’t satisfied with what the area has to offer. To each his /her own.
He also realized he was a horrible fit in Rod’s system.
Rantanen didn’t even make an effort to fit in at Carolina. You could see it in how disengaged he was when he played. The trade shocked him. His enormous ego was bruised and he pouted about it for weeks.
He got there then the 4 nations went on. He knew right away Raleigh was a bad place for his game and shot his way out of town.
Rod’s system has delivered a lot of success for the Canes and turned around a team that rarely went to the playoffs after winning the Cup in 2006. While it is good enough to beat most of the teams in the NHL, it’s not good enough to win consistently against the best teams—especially those with great goalies.
If the Canes are able to land a couple of elite forwards (winger and 2C) with their cap space, Rod needs to tweak his system to adapt to those players. I’m not saying throw it out, but just adapt. I worry that Rod is too stubborn to do so.
If Rod does not make some tweaks, the Canes will always be a bridesmaid, but never the bride.
Ehlers could work, but Marner doesn’t seem like a fit. I’d be surprised if Winnipeg lets Ehlers walk though. I don’t think he’s had the best season of his career yet. I tend to agree with most of what the other comments so far mention re: the other stuff.
They don’t seem to like Ehlers all that much. There’s always some sort of controversy about his head being in the right place or his minutes being inconsistent or his injury troubles. They haven’t committed to the guy as a top-flight winger and I don’t expect them to now.
The problem I see is the man on man system that Carolina plays with no other system as a back up is too taxing on players . A hybred 1-3-1 or 1-2-2 should be used at points through out the season and game . The thing is Brinys system covers a lot of individual weaknesses that the team has and as the team is constructed , it might be the best system for max success . That success is not likely to be a cup
They have neither the depth nor the high-end talent of the truly elite teams. Florida doesn’t have the talent, but they’re deep as hell. Tampa dynasty had both. Chicago dynasty had both. Edmonton has game-breaking skill— they can rack up goals in a hurry, no other team has a 1-2 punch like they do, and just enough depth to compete against deep clubs. Colorado had the skill when they won.
Dallas has incredible depth, but no top end talent. When they need goals, they can’t score. Toronto has top end talent, but no depth. When their stars get tired towards games 5, 6, and 7, they have nothing else. Carolina can’t find consistent play from whoever they pair with their only, true bonafide superstar player and their system prevents dark horses down the lineup from altering the series with energy or timely play.