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East Notes: Demidov, Crosby, Mercer

September 3, 2024 at 8:35 am CDT | by Josh Erickson Leave a Comment

One of Ivan Demidov’s countrymen is optimistic the top-five pick will have a strong run of success in Montreal. Former Canadiens winger Alexander Radulov spoke to Sergey Demidov of Responsible Gambling about the 2024 fifth-overall pick and said Demidov will be “having a blast” when he likely begins his NHL career in the closing days of the 2024-25 season.

“Yes, he will be pressured, and he should understand that,” Radulov said. “But he should turn that pressure to his advantage. In Quebec, fans understand hockey. If you give it all, they see it and appreciate it. They even have hockey on their five-dollar bill.”

Radulov, who spent the 2016-17 season in Montreal, will be Demidov’s rival in the Kontinental Hockey League this season as the youngster takes on his first full season of professional hockey. Demidov, 19 in December, had one of the best seasons in Russian junior hockey history last year with SKA St. Petersburg’s U20 club, where he lit up the circuit for 60 points (27 G, 33 A) in just 30 games. He remains on SKA’s main roster two days ahead of their regular season opener, and all signs point to him starting his post-draft season with the main squad.

Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference:

  • Each day that passes without a Sidney Crosby extension means more anxiety for Penguins fans. The face of the franchise is entering the last season of his 12-year, $104.4MM contract and has been eligible to sign an extension since July 1, but there hasn’t been any news despite the two sides being reportedly close for months. Trade speculation will keep heating up the closer we get to training camp, influencing TSN’s Travis Yost to at least break down the likelihood of Crosby being moved at the trade deadline. “Imagine for a moment that the Penguins struggle early,” Yost writes. “It is precisely Crosby’s loyalty to the franchise that would suggest a trade could be fruitful: the returns even for a rental of Crosby would be extraordinary, and under the same assumption that Crosby’s loyalty is unwavering, he would return back to Pittsburgh (with possibly more help rostered as soon as 2025-26) on his retirement deal.“
  • Could more teams follow in the Hurricanes’ footsteps and use deferred payments to help get long-term deals across the finish line? It’s at least something to look out for in the case of the Devils and RFA forward Dawson Mercer, posits James Nichols of New Jersey Hockey Now. New Jersey is down to $4.98MM in projected cap space, per PuckPedia, a figure Mercer’s AAV on a longer-term deal would likely eclipse by a slim margin. Deferring a small percentage of the contract until the end of the agreement would help it get across the finish line, at least from the team’s perspective. Whether Mercer is willing to accept the structure remains to be seen.

Montreal Canadiens| New Jersey Devils| Pittsburgh Penguins Dawson Mercer| Ivan Demidov| Sidney Crosby

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Dallas Stars

September 2, 2024 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We begin with a look at the Central Division; next up is Dallas.

Dallas Stars

Current Cap Hit: $81,756,241 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Mavrik Bourque (one year, $894K)
F Wyatt Johnston (one year, $894K)
F Logan Stankoven (two years, $814K)

Potential Bonuses
Johnston: $318.75K
Stankoven: $82.5K
Total: $401.25K

It’s fair to say that Johnston has provided significant value on his contract so far.  After putting up 24 goals and 41 points in his rookie season, those numbers jumped to 32 and 65 respectively last year while also tying for the team lead in playoff scoring.  This is the type of player that the Stars will want to lock up on a long-term agreement.  However, that deal is going to be quite pricey.  At this point, if Johnston has even a similar performance this coming season let alone a more productive effort, he could be looking for $8MM or more on that second contract.  If their cap situation ultimately dictates a short-term second deal, it’s likely to come in around the $6MM range.

Stankoven was one of the top scorers in the minors last season before being recalled and was productive in a middle-six role.  Assuming he locks down a full-time spot this year, he could make a case for a longer-term second contract, one that is a bit too early to project at this point.  Bourque eventually took over as the top scorer at the AHL level with Stankoven’s departure and only got into one regular season game with Dallas.  That should change this season but unless he has a big year offensively, he’s someone who will likely wind up with a bridge deal for his second contract.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

F Jamie Benn ($9.5MM, UFA)
F Colin Blackwell ($775K, UFA)
F Evgenii Dadonov ($2.25MM, UFA)
F Matt Duchene ($3MM, UFA)
D Esa Lindell ($5.8MM, UFA)
D Nils Lundkvist ($1.25MM, RFA)
G Jake Oettinger ($4MM, RFA)
D Brendan Smith ($1MM, UFA)
F Sam Steel ($1.2MM, UFA)

When Benn signed this contract, he was among the top-scoring wingers in the NHL.  While he hasn’t been able to get to that level of production (high-80s in points) since then, he has rebounded nicely over the last couple of seasons, notching 78 and 60 points respectively.  While that’s not a great return on this price tag, he’s still producing like a core player.  Given his age when his next contract will begin (36), the AAV might be closer to the $5MM mark.  If he signs a one-year deal next time out, he’ll be eligible for performance incentives, similar to what Dallas had been doing with Joe Pavelski before his retirement.

Duchene was a late entrant to the free agent market last summer so the one-year, $3MM deal he signed then made sense for both sides, seemingly positioning himself for a raise and a multi-year guarantee this past summer.  Instead, he opted to stick around on the same contract, leaving some money and security on the table in the process.  It’s possible he agrees to do so again next summer but if he doesn’t, he could still land a three-year (or so) agreement closer to $4.5MM per season.  Dadonov wasn’t as productive as he was late in the 2022-23 season after being acquired but with 23 points in 51 games, he still provided a decent return on this deal.  He has indicated that he doesn’t want any early extension talks and has left the door open to finishing up his career in the KHL.

Steel had a decent season in the bottom six but his arbitration eligibility was a concern, resulting in him being non-tendered.  While he did have some interest elsewhere, he ultimately elected to remain with the Stars.  With that outside interest, Steel should be able to land this deal or a bit more next summer if he has a similar showing this season.  Blackwell struggled with injuries the last two seasons which certainly didn’t help his cause going into free agency.  Nonetheless, as a capable penalty killer who can play center in a pinch, he could rebuild his value with a good showing in 2024-25 and push past the $1MM mark on his next contract.

Lindell is one of the more intriguing defensemen league-wide who is heading into the final year of his contract.  When he signed this contract back in 2019, he was coming off a bridge deal and what looked like a breakout 32-point campaign.  If he could find another gear offensively, Lindell would become quite a bargain at this price point.  Instead, he hasn’t gotten back to that total since with his best output coming this past season at 26.  While Lindell is still a very capable defensive defender, the limited production will limit his market to an extent as will the fact he’ll be 31 when his next contract starts.  With the cap starting to go up, a small raise could be doable but if he wants a long-term agreement (seven or eight years), it wouldn’t be surprising if the AAV came in slightly below this, barring an offensive breakout in the coming months.

Lundkvist hasn’t been able to provide the secondary offensive contributions Dallas was hoping for when they moved a pair of draft picks (including a first-rounder) for him in 2022.  Then, when the playoffs came around, his playing time was just 4:28 per night in a dozen games when he wasn’t a healthy scratch.  Thus, it wasn’t entirely shocking that he was non-tendered to avoid arbitration although the fact he was brought back might have.  He’ll once again look to earn some trust from the coaching staff (and perhaps a small raise if he’s able to do so) but will be a non-tender candidate next summer as well.  Smith came over in free agency and is set to play a depth role.  Now 35, it’s likely he’ll be going year-to-year on similarly-priced contracts from here on out.

Signed Through 2025-26

D Matt Dumba ($3.75MM, UFA)
F Mason Marchment ($4.5MM, UFA)
F Jason Robertson ($7.75MM, RFA)

Robertson has emerged as a legitimate top-line star, notching 268 points in 238 games over the last three seasons.  Signing after a 41-goal effort, the two sides worked out a rare four-year bridge deal, one that gives Dallas some good value on the contract while also setting him up for a pricier contract in his final RFA-eligible campaign.  He’s owed a qualifying offer of $9.3MM with arbitration rights at that time and unless he struggles over the next couple of seasons, there’s a good chance he’ll push past the $10MM mark in 2026.  Marchment, meanwhile, rebounded nicely after a quiet first season in Dallas.  If he stays near the 50-point mark over the next two seasons, he’ll have demonstrated enough consistency to give him a much stronger market, especially with the premium typically given to power forwards.  That could push his next price tag past $6MM per season.

Dumba didn’t get the long-term deal he sought last summer, resulting in him taking a one-year pact with an eye on having more success this summer.  That didn’t exactly happen as he had a quiet season in Arizona before finishing up with Tampa Bay, putting him back on the open market in a similar spot.  Getting two years at this money was more due to his track record than his performance last season; he’ll need to rebound if he wants a chance to get past the $4MM mark again in 2026.

Signed Through 2026-27

G Casey DeSmith ($1MM, UFA)
D Ilya Lyubushkin ($3.25MM, UFA)
F Tyler Seguin ($9.85MM, UFA)

It was expected that the best was yet to come from Seguin when he signed this contract in 2018.  While his best showing came just after this contract was signed (in the last season of his old deal), he has struggled since then, only putting up more than 50 points just once, that coming last season when he got to 52.  He’s still a capable top-six player but this is a price tag that’s well above market value.  His next deal might check in closer to half of this one as a result.

Lyubushkin rarely plays above the third pairing but did well enough last season to command his best contract so far.  That said, unless he can take on a bit more of a workload, it’s hard to see him getting another raise in 2027 as this is already on the rich side for someone destined to play around 16-17 minutes a night.

DeSmith gave Vancouver a small boost at the backup goalie position last season but after being surpassed by Arturs Silovs on the depth chart in the playoffs, it was clear DeSmith would be going elsewhere.  He elected for stability and a winning environment over chasing top dollar, giving the Stars a reliable second-string option at a below-market cost.

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Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

D Miro Heiskanen ($8.45MM through 2027-28)
F Roope Hintz ($8.45MM through 2027-28)

Hintz is someone who probably has gone under the radar but he has reached the 30-goal mark in each of the last three seasons.  He isn’t a top-end point producer like Robertson, however, which may serve as a limiter if that doesn’t change much in the back half of the contract.  Even so, he should have a shot at a small raise in 2028 with the potential for more if the point total goes up.

As for Heiskanen, he has emerged as a legitimate two-way star on the back end and is producing at a level that already makes his price tag a team-friendly one.  A legitimate all-around number one blueliner, he’ll potentially hit the open market in 2029 where a max-term contract should be awaiting him along with a cap hit in the double digits.

Buyouts

D Ryan Suter ($783K in 2024-25, $1.433MM in 2025-26)

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

D Thomas Harley – Harley has only one full NHL season under his belt, that coming last year.  However, with 15 goals and 32 assists, he was a key cog on their back end and projects to be so for the long haul.  However, Dallas would be hard-pressed to fit in a long-term agreement into their current cap situation so a bridge deal in the $4MM range may be the end result.

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Duchene
Worst Value: Seguin

Looking Ahead

Cap space may be hard to come by this season for Dallas depending on what Harley’s deal winds up at and their willingness (or lack thereof) to carry a full-sized roster.  If they operate at 21 or 22 players, they may be able to bank enough in-season space to try to make a move at the trade deadline, presumably to upgrade their back end.  But if they wind up with 23 on the active roster (or some injury trouble), then they’ll be closer to cap-in, cap-out like a lot of contenders will be.

Dallas is relatively well-positioned moving forward.  While Johnston, Oettinger, and Lindell will be in line for pricey contracts next summer, they have a lot coming off the books to help offset that.  Seguin’s deal expiring in 2026 gives them some future flexibility to help afford eventual increases down the road as well.  They’re not going to be in a spot where they’ll be able to add a significant piece to their existing core (unless they can develop one from within) but the Stars shouldn’t find themselves in a spot where they have to part with a key piece to afford the rest either.  All things considered, GM Jim Nill has a relatively clean set of books to work with as a result.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Dallas Stars| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2024

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East Notes: Marchand, Hollowell, Norlinder

September 2, 2024 at 7:58 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose 1 Comment

While Jeremy Swayman’s contract situation is rightfully getting the attention in Boston right now, Ken Campbell of The Hockey News highlights the other contract of note the Bruins will have to work out, which is an extension for Brad Marchand.  At the time he signed his team-friendly deal that carries a $6.25MM AAV, the talk was about how their top players left some money on the table to keep the core together.  Since then, David Pastrnak ($11.25MM AAV) and Charlie McAvoy ($9.5MM AAV) have signed pricey deals with Swayman believed to be looking for $8MM or more as well.  While Marchand is nearing the end of his career (he’ll be 37 when his next contract starts), Campbell wonders if he could be inclined to look to maximize his potential earnings this time around.  He adds that there have been no discussions about an extension between the two sides so far.

Elsewhere in the East:

  • With the Penguins lacking right-shot depth on the back end, Matt Vensel of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette wonders if free agent addition Mac Hollowell could be this year’s version of Ryan Shea. Shea didn’t have any NHL experience heading into last season but wound up playing in 31 games.  Hollowell does have six games at the top level under his belt with Toronto in 2022-23 but spent last season with AHL Hartford, notching 44 points in 64 games.  Pittsburgh GM Kyle Dubas is familiar with Hollowell from their time in Toronto which could help his cause this coming season.
  • Free agent defenseman Mattias Norlinder has decided to decline the offer the Canadiens made to him over the weekend, relays Expressen’s Gunnar Nordstrom. Montreal non-tendered the 24-year-old in June after a quiet season with AHL Laval that saw him record just nine points in 50 games.  Norlinder’s agent indicated that his client’s preference was to play in an environment that would allow him more freedom offensively which has him wanting to play with MoDo, an organization he spent several years with previously.  However, the team lacks the budget to sign him and announced the creation of a crowdfunding campaign to raise $1MM SEK (a little under $100K in USD) to be able to get Norlinder signed.

Boston Bruins| Montreal Canadiens| Pittsburgh Penguins Brad Marchand| Mac Hollowell| Mattias Norlinder

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Blues In Rare Position To Promote Multiple Prospects

September 2, 2024 at 5:05 pm CDT | by Gabriel Foley 4 Comments

The St. Louis Blues are in a bit of a funk. They’ve missed each of the last two postseasons – only the fourth time in the team’s 57-year history that they’ve missed consecutive playoffs – but are still being elevated by the next-level talent of players like Pavel Buchnevich, Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, and Jordan Binnington. That’s kept the team from falling completely into the NHL’s basement, but their core is still aging rapidly. It seems the clock is ticking in St. Louis – as the Blues find themselves in urgent need of a surge in young talent to keep the lineup from falling into a rebuild.

Unfortunately, promoting young players hasn’t been much of a hallmark of recent Blues hockey. Only two teenagers – Thomas and Robby Fabbri – have played meaningful minutes in St. Louis since 2010, and still, both players faced third-line roles and plenty of scrutiny over their ice time. But they each found ways to produce, scoring 33 and 37 points in their rookie seasons respectively, and both eventually working onto St. Louis’ top line. That was short-lived for Fabbri, but the duo’s success nonetheless showed the payoff of giving top prospects NHL minutes.

The Blues have more recently seen those same patterns with 21-year-old Jake Neighbours, who worked up to an impressive 27 goals and 38 points in 77 games this season. It was Neighbours’ first full year in the NHL – though he entered with 52 games of prior experience – and he walked out the tail end of it with a firm grasp on a second-line role. Joel Hofer, 24, made a similar climb to prominence this year, appearing in 30 games and matching the .913 of starter Binnington – having graduated from two proud seasons as the AHL starter.

It’s continued evidence of young players finding success in NHL minutes – spelling tons of excitement for a Blues team preparing to host Dalibor Dvorsky, Zachary Bolduc, and Zach Dean at training camp. The latter two each received their NHL debuts last Spring, with Bolduc even formalizing his rookie season with 25 games played. But Bolduc managed just nine points, while Dean went scoreless in nine games. Their quiet scoring prevailed in the minors leagues as well, but both Bolduc and Dean took big strides in improving their ability to match pro pace. Meanwhile, Dvorsky was tearing up the OHL, recording 45 goals and 88 points in just 52 games. He looked like a pro among amateurs, likely thanks to the 38 games he played in Sweden’s HockeyAllsvenskan in 2022-23.

All three forwards are capable of a jump to the top flight, with the sturdy frames of Bolduc and Dvorsky looking especially mature. That’s great news, as St. Louis sits with, perhaps, their most uncertain bottom-six since the early-2000s. It’s a hodge-podge group, where Alexey Toropchenko stands as the only confident inclusion. Joining him will be a mix of quiet Blues veterans – like Oskar Sundqvist, Nathan Walker, and Kasperi Kapanen – and new acquisitions – like Radek Faksa, Mathieu Joseph, and Alexandre Texier. That’s plenty of manpower to round out a bottom-six, but none of those options would stand as particularly daunting against a young prospect who impresses out of camp.

Making things more exciting is St. Louis’ win of the sweepstakes for Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. They shelled out $6.87MM in offer sheets to bring in the duo, but now add two more exciting young players into their mix of potential breakout names. Holloway is the more experienced of the two, having played in 89 games across the last two seasons. He’s only scored 18 points, split evenly, in those appearances, but looked to have a bit more momentum when he put up nine points in 25 games during the most recent postseason. Holloway has shown he’s capable of being productive with a pro role, scoring 26 points in 30 career AHL games, and should get a chance to quickly earn a prominent role on St. Louis’ lineup. Broberg’s story is largely the same – low-scoring through roughly a season’s worth of NHL appearances (13 points in 81 games) but encouraging minor-league production (65 points in 87 games) and a chance to quickly earn a major role.

That gives St. Louis the rare mix of multiple U23 prospects vying for NHL ice time, and the lineup spots to truly accommodate multiple rookies. It’s been six seasons since the Blues iced carried multiple U23 players on their everyday roster (2017-18, Robert Thomas and Vince Dunn) – but the stars are aligning, making now a better time than ever for St. Louis to fully embrace their burgeoning top prospects. If and how the quintet of Dvorsky, Bolduc, Dean, Holloway, and Broberg are able to earn out NHL roles will stand as the most prophetic question as the Blues look to finally return to the postseason.

AHL| NHL| Players| Prospects| Rookies| St. Louis Blues Dalibor Dvorsky| Dylan Holloway| Philip Broberg| Zach Dean| Zachary Bolduc

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Insight Into Pavel Buchnevich’s Extension Negotiations

September 2, 2024 at 1:29 pm CDT | by Brennan McClain Leave a Comment

St. Louis Blues forward Pavel Buchnevich recently took part in a long-ranging interview with Daria Tuboltseva of RG.org where the two discussed topics such as his recent contract extension negotiations to the near future of the Blues organization. Buchnevich recently signed a six-year, $48MM extension with St. Louis on the second day of free agency this summer after seeing his name mired in trade rumors for much of the regular season.

The trade speculation was brought up in the interview and it doesn’t seem that anything was particularly close. Buchnevich referenced a conversation with general manager Doug Armstrong shortly after the trade deadline where he quoted Armstrong as saying, “I didn’t plan to trade you. The price for you was very high. But I couldn’t tell you that we definitely wouldn’t trade you, because if someone had agreed to that price, I couldn’t help but take advantage of it“.

Armstrong moved quickly on extending Buchnevich after other teams failed to meet a lofty asking price with the two sides agreeing on a salary near the draft according to Buchnevich. The two sides agreed relatively quickly allowing the Blues to have their core forwards including Robert Thomas and Jordan Kyrou locked up until the 2030-31 NHL season. The Russian forward’s only main concern was the franchise’s direction moving forward; especially after the team fired head coach Craig Berube during the regular season.

His concerns were assuaged during the negotiations as Armstrong highlighted that the organization was not interested in rebuilding. Armstrong’s credibility in the negotiations was solidified this summer as the Blues got aggressive on the trade market and with offer sheets to round out their depth. Not only did they look outside the organization for help but Buchnevich himself brought up the young talent coming up when he said, “They told me there would be no long rebuild; they want to make a strong team here and now. No one is interested in a long rebuild. They said that they would try to strengthen the team in the market. They also outlined the situation with young players: many good hockey players are coming“.

St. Louis finished six points back of a wild-card spot in the 2023-24 NHL season and life will not get any easier in a tough Central Division this year. The Colorado Avalanche and Dallas Stars still serve as some of the better teams in the Western Conference while the Nashville Predators got much better this offseason. The Blues will have to start better out of the gates this year as they look to return to the Stanley Cup playoffs for the first time since 2022.

St. Louis Blues Pavel Buchnevich

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Teams Moving On From Prospects Earlier Than Ever

September 2, 2024 at 11:30 am CDT | by Brennan McClain 5 Comments

One of the sub-themes from the 2024 offseason and part of a larger theme in general from the 2024-25 NHL season — organizations are moving on from top prospects much earlier than in previous years. Nick Faris of The Score recently broke down this narrative and explained how it symbolizes a few shifting narratives.

Faris writes that ten players drafted in the top 15 between 2019-2023 have changed teams since the start of the calendar year 2024. This is partly due to NCAA prospects using their inevitable free agency as a negotiating tactic to move on from their draft organization and teams reassessing their needs much quicker than in previous years.

Anaheim Ducks’ Cutter Gauthier and Pittsburgh Penguins’ Rutger McGroarty are the most recent examples of NCAA stars choosing to forego their entry-level contract with their drafting teams in the hopes of being traded to a different organization. Both were granted their wishes as the Philadelphia Flyers traded Gauthier to the Ducks for Jamie Drysdale, and the Penguins traded their top prospect Brayden Yager to the Jets for McGroarty.

The remaining top 15 talents from the previous four NHL Drafts were moved out of rapidly shifting team needs. The Colorado Avalanche had a larger need for a second-line center rather than a long-term top-four option on the blue line culminating in the trade for Casey Mittelstadt from the Buffalo Sabres for Bowen Byram. The Utah Hockey Club and Sabres moved on from Conor Geekie and Matthew Savoie, respectively, for more immediate needs on their roster with only one game played combined for their drafting franchise. The Penguins moved on from Yager for more immediate help in McGroarty, and the Nashville Predators traded top goaltending prospect Yaroslav Askarov as they will not need another starting goaltender until the 2030s.

This is not to say that NHL organizations are non-committal towards their high-end draft selections as Faris notes 12 players drafted in the top 15 from 2019-2023 have already signed long-term contracts with their respective franchises. It has become clear that NHL teams are assessing young talent faster than ever. There has been no indication that the quality of assessment has improved as some of the players who have changed hands will inevitably have better careers with their new teams.

Prospects Bowen Byram| Brayden Yager| Conor Geekie| Cutter Gauthier| Matthew Savoie| Rutger McGroarty| Yaroslav Askarov

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Filip Zadina Signs In Switzerland

September 2, 2024 at 9:39 am CDT | by Josh Cybulski 4 Comments

Former Detroit Red Wings first-round pick Filip Zadina has reportedly signed a deal with Swiss club HC Davos (as per HC Davos X account). The signing ends Zadina’s time in the NHL for now, as inconsistency and inflated expectations have plagued the former sixth-overall pick. It was reported last week that Zadina would sign a PTO with an NHL team, however, his agent poured cold water over those rumors.

Zadina was never able to live up to the expectations of being drafted so high and eventually asked for a fresh start to try and get his career on the rails. Detroit mutually terminated his contract in July 2023 which allowed the 24-year-old to sign with the San Jose Sharks last summer and start with a clean slate. With the Sharks, Zadina posted a career-high 13 goals to go with 10 assists in 72 games, but his overall game wasn’t strong enough to warrant a NHL contract this summer.

Zadina likely could have received an NHL offer through a professional tryout, particularly with some of the teams lacking forward depth, however, he has opted for more certainty and a guarantee in Switzerland. His signing effectively pauses his time in the NHL and could allow him to regain the offensive touch the made him a high draft pick. Davos has historically been a powerhouse in the National League with 31 titles but has struggled as of late finishing sixth last year in the regular season and getting knocked out in the first round of the playoffs.

Detroit Red Wings| San Jose Sharks Filip Zadina

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Former Oilers Goaltender Mikko Koskinen Officially Retires

September 2, 2024 at 8:42 am CDT | by Josh Cybulski 2 Comments

Former Edmonton Oilers goaltender Mikko Koskinen officially retired from his playing career last week (as per Finnish media outlet Ilta-Sanomat). There were whispers earlier in the year that he would hang up his skates, but it has been made official. The 36-year-old began his career as a second-round pick of the New York Islanders in 2009 and played just four NHL games with the organization, playing mostly overseas before eventually signing as a free agent with the Oilers in May of 2018.

He was okay in his first full NHL season, dressing in 55 games and posting a 25-21-6 record with a .906 save percentage. This prompted then Oilers general manager Peter Chiarelli to sign the Finnish netminder to a three-year $13.5MM contract extension.

The first year of the deal went well for both sides as Koskinen posted a .917 save percentage in 38 games and looked like a legitimate NHL netminder. However, after the success of the 2019-20 season, the wheels came off of Koskinen’s game and he became a lightning rod for criticism over the following two seasons.

In his final months in the NHL, Koskinen didn’t see much action with Edmonton as Mike Smith took over the net, largely out of necessity as Koskinen couldn’t find his game. Koskinen saw three games of playoff action in 2022, going 0-2 with a .897 save percentage and a 4.02 goals-against average. This was the last NHL action he would see.

In June 2022, Koskinen signed in Switzerland with HC Lugano where he would finish out the final two years of his professional playing career before deciding to begin a new career as a player agent. He officially registered as a player agent in Finland in July and will be reportedly based in Helsinki.

All things considered, Koskinen had a very successful playing career. His NHL numbers were certainly average, however, he posted elite numbers internationally, representing his native Finland on multiple occasions and his KHL numbers were terrific during his five professional seasons in Russia.

Edmonton Oilers Mikko Koskinen

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Five Key Stories: 8/26/24 – 9/1/24

September 1, 2024 at 9:00 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

The calendar has turned to September and training camps are now just a couple of weeks away.  However, the enthusiasm for the season fast approaching was put on hold following a tragedy in the hockey world which is among the key stories of the week.

Tragedy Strikes: The hockey world is in mourning after Blue Jackets winger Johnny Gaudreau and his brother Matthew Gaudreau were killed after being struck by an accused drunk driver while biking near their New Jersey home.  They were 31 and 29 years old respectively.  Johnny was a key cog of Calgary’s offense for eight years, capped by a career-best 115-point performance in 2021-22 before inking a seven-year, $68.25MM contract with Columbus that summer.  He led the Blue Jackets in scoring in both seasons with them.  Matthew, meanwhile, turned pro in 2017 and spent several years in the Islanders system before entering the coaching ranks in the 2021-22 campaign.  Everyone at PHR sends our deepest condolences to the Gaudreau family.

Surgery For Brossoit: One of Chicago’s important free agent signings might not be ready to start the season as the team announced that he will be out five to seven weeks after undergoing meniscus surgery.  The 31-year-old inked a two-year, $6.6MM contract with the Blackhawks early in free agency, giving them a second veteran netminder to partner with Petr Mrazek.  Brossoit returned to Winnipeg last season in free agency and fared quite well, posting a 2.00 GAA and a .927 SV% in 23 games.  If he isn’t available to start the season, last year’s backup Arvid Soderblom will likely break camp with Chicago, an outcome that might not be the case for blueliner Kevin Korchinski despite spending all of last season with the big club.

Eight For Jarvis: It took a while but the Hurricanes and Seth Jarvis were able to work out a max-term eight-year, $63.2MM contract.  Generally, the cap charge for this deal would be the total value divided by eight but that isn’t the case for this one.  Per PuckPedia (Twitter link), $15.67MM of signing bonus money has been deferred to July 1, 2032, the day after the contract expires, making the present value of the deal just over $7.42MM; that amount represents the cap charge for Carolina.  Jarvis is coming off a career year that saw him put up 33 goals and 34 assists and the Hurricanes will be banking on the 22-year-old taking another step forward offensively.  The deal certainly tightens their salary cap situation but with Jesper Fast undergoing season-ending neck surgery, they’ll have some flexibility if they need to dip into LTIR.

Cousins To Ottawa: We’re at the point of the offseason where guaranteed contracts for veteran players are going to be hard to come by.  One of the exceptions is winger Nick Cousins who signed a one-year, $800K contract with the Senators.  The 31-year-old spent the last two seasons with Florida and is coming off a 15-point effort in 2023-24 where he picked up a career-high 130 hits and won his first Stanley Cup.  This will be the 11th season of his career and already his seventh different team.

Hakanpaa Expected To Remain Free Agent: While the Maple Leafs agreed to terms on a two-year, $3MM deal with Jani Hakanpaa on the opening day of free agency, the contract was never registered due to concerns over his lingering knee injury.  Now, it appears they don’t intend to make the contract official, keeping the 32-year-old on the open market.  Toronto will now likely redeploy that money up front with RFA winger Nick Robertson still in need of a new deal.  However, with the youngster still preferring to be traded, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Maple Leafs look at other options to add some depth on the left wing.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

NHL Week In Review

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Salary Cap Deep Dive: Colorado Avalanche

September 1, 2024 at 7:59 pm CDT | by Brian La Rose Leave a Comment

Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office.  Teams that can avoid total cap chaos by walking the tightrope of inking players to deals that match their value (or compensate for future value without breaking the bank) remain successful.  Those that don’t often see struggles and front office changes.

PHR will look at every NHL team and give a thorough look at their cap situation heading into the 2024-25 season.  This will focus more on players who are regulars on the roster versus those who may find themselves shuttling between the AHL and NHL.  All cap figures are courtesy of PuckPedia.  We begin with a look at the Central Division; next up is Colorado.

Colorado Avalanche

Current Cap Hit: $85,993,750 (under the $88MM Upper Limit)

Entry-Level Contracts

F Nikolai Kovalenko (one year, $896K)

Potential Bonuses
Kovalenko: $57.5K

Kovalenko spent most of the first season of his contract in Russia before coming to North America for a brief stint in the minors plus a couple of playoff appearances with the Avs.  Projected as a middle-six winger, his waiver exemption could work against him if Colorado is looking to bank early-season space but he should still be able to hit a good chunk of his games-played bonus.  Between that and his limited experience thus far, he’s a safe bet for a short-term second contract.  If he produces to expectations, that deal could approach the $2MM mark.

Signed Through 2024-25, Non-Entry-Level

D Erik Brannstrom ($900K, RFA)
D Calvin de Haan ($800K, UFA)
F Jonathan Drouin ($2.5MM, UFA)
G Alexandar Georgiev ($3.4MM, UFA)
F Logan O’Connor ($1.05MM, UFA)
F Joel Kiviranta ($775K, UFA)
D Oliver Kylington ($1.05MM, UFA)
D Sam Malinski ($850K, RFA)
F Mikko Rantanen ($9.25MM, UFA)
F Chris Wagner ($775K, UFA)

Rantanen is clearly the headliner on this list.  The 27-year-old has become one of the top wingers in the NHL and is coming off his second straight season of more than 100 points.  League-wide, only five players have more points than him over the last three seasons; three of those are making at least $2MM more than he is.  New York’s Artemi Panarin is currently the winger with the highest AAV in NHL history; it stands to reason that Rantanen will be looking to at least pass that on his next agreement.  His linemate (we’ll get to him shortly) probably sits as the benchmark that Colorado won’t want to clear but a max-term agreement around the $12MM mark per season is a definite possibility.

The decision for Drouin to take a cheap one-year deal with the Avs last summer to help rebuild some value worked as he had a career-best 56 points.  However, his market was still fairly limited, which resulted in another one-year deal on the opening day of free agency.  Perhaps a second strong year will bolster his market next time out.  O’Connor was in the middle of a breakout performance last season and had a shot at 40 points.  If he produces at a similar rate this season, he could triple his current AAV.  Wagner and Kiviranta will battle for spots at the end of the roster and will get them or be beaten out by others at that price point.  At this point in their careers, both players will be going year-to-year, likely on two-way deals like they have now.

Kylington didn’t appear to have a strong market in free agency, resulting in a pay cut as he’ll look to do like Drouin and rebuild some value.  If he can establish himself as a full-timer after missing as much time as he has, he could at least double this next time out.  Brannstrom was non-tendered by Ottawa and had to settle for a low-cost deal as well.  He’ll be looking to do like Kylington but Colorado will have the ability to control him for another year, albeit with arbitration rights which could scare the Avs off from a qualifying offer.  Malinski has primarily played in the minors but did well in limited action last season and is now waiver-eligible which could help keep him on the NHL roster.  As for de Haan, he had a limited role with Tampa Bay last season and is likely going to remain close to the minimum salary moving forward.

Georgiev is one of the more intriguing pending UFA netminders.  He has led the league in wins the last two seasons and led the NHL in minutes played in 2023-24.  For someone making high-end backup money, that’s a strong return on their investment.  However, his numbers were particularly mediocre after a solid performance the year before.  That makes his next contract tough to project; if he’s closer to last season’s numbers, he might have a hard time commanding $5MM per season.  But if he goes back to his 2022-23 performance, a contract starting with a six could be doable.

Signed Through 2025-26

G Justus Annunen ($837.5K, RFA)
F Parker Kelly ($825K, UFA)
D/F Jacob MacDonald ($775K, UFA)
D Josh Manson ($4.5MM, UFA)

Despite a bounce-back season, the Senators opted to non-tender Kelly to avoid the arbitration risk, sending him to the open market early.  Even if he can’t put up 18 points again, if he can add grit to the fourth line and effectively kill penalties, he’ll have a much stronger market in 2026 in a more favorable cap environment.

Manson was able to stay healthy last season which is something that had been a challenge for him in previous years.  Even so, he was fifth among Colorado blueliners in ATOI; this price tag for a high-end third-pairing player is on the high side.  Unless he stays healthy the next two years and can move into a top-four role, he’ll be hard-pressed to make this on his next contract.  MacDonald returns for a second stint in the organization but with the extra blueliners they’ve brought in since then, his best shot to stick might be as a forward.

Annunen split last season between the NHL and AHL and will now get his first full NHL campaign.  He performed quite well in limited duty with the Avs last season and if he can push to take over as the starter by the time this deal is up, he will be in line for a significant raise with arbitration eligibility.

Signed Through 2026-27

F Ross Colton ($4MM, UFA)
D Samuel Girard ($5MM, UFA)
F Artturi Lehkonen ($4.5MM, UFA)
D Cale Makar ($9MM, UFA)
F Casey Mittelstadt ($5.75MM, UFA)

Mittelstadt came over at the trade deadline from Buffalo in one of the biggest swaps of the season, one that saw Bowen Byram go the other way.  However, it was a bit surprising that Colorado opted for this contract, one that only bought them one more year of club control although it kept the AAV at a more manageable rate.  He’ll need to take another step forward offensively and get closer to at least the 65-70-point mark to break into that next salary tier which would start around $7MM.

Lehkonen’s acquisition from Montreal has sparked another offensive level although he has battled injuries the last two seasons.  If he can keep producing at a 60-point pace while playing a strong defensive game, he should be able to add a couple million to his next contract.  At $4MM, Colton is a bit expensive for a third center but he is coming off a career season offensively so it’s a luxury they’ve decided they can still afford for now.  If he holds around the 40-point mark, he could land similar money next time out.

Makar set new personal bests in assists and points last season while being a Norris finalist for the fourth straight year.  It’s not very often that a player making $9MM could be viewed as a team-friendly bargain but that is the case here.   At this point, there’s little reason to think that he won’t be setting a record-breaking agreement for a defenseman, surpassing Erik Karlsson’s $11.5MM AAV on his next contract.  Girard missed time due to injury and a month in the NHL/NHLPA Player Assistance Program and in between, he found his minutes dropped to the lowest they’ve been since his rookie year.  That said, he’s still a legitimate top-four defender.  His smaller stature will hurt him but if he can get back to the level he played at in 2021-22 and 2022-23, he could land at least a small raise.

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Signed Through 2027-28 Or Longer

F Gabriel Landeskog ($7MM through 2028-29)
F Nathan MacKinnon ($12.6MM through 2030-31)
F Valeri Nichushkin ($6.125MM through 2029-30)
D Devon Toews ($7.25MM through 2030-31)
F Miles Wood ($2.5MM through 2028-29)

When MacKinnon came off his entry-level deal, the $6.3MM price tag he received on his long-term extension was perceived by some as a bit risky after failing to reach his rookie-season production in his second and third years.  As we know now, it wound up being a very team-friendly agreement rather quickly.  That eventually paved the way for him to set what was briefly the richest contract in terms of AAV in league history, just ahead of Connor McDavid.  (It has since been surpassed by Auston Matthews.)  Given the cost, it’s hard to see this becoming a team-friendly pact but he still provided good value in the first year of it last season, finishing second in the league in scoring.  As long as he keeps that up, they’ll be fine with the price tag.

The other two forwards in this group have significant question marks.  Landeskog has missed the last two seasons with knee trouble and while he’s hoping to play early on this season, his effectiveness will be far from guaranteed.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see him struggle which could make this contract a rough one if he’s able to play and not land on LTIR.  Nichushkin, meanwhile, was put back into the Player Assistance Program in the middle of a stellar playoff performance.  He’s in there for at least the first month of the season and will not count against the cap during that time; the cap number at the beginning of this article is with him not on the books.  When he’s playing, Nichushkin is certainly living up to his contract but with the next stage of the program being an automatic one-year suspension at a minimum, that will loom over him and Colorado.

Buyouts

None

Retained Salary Transactions

None

Still To Sign

None

Best Value: (non-entry-level) Georgiev
Worst Value: Manson

Looking Ahead

The upcoming season is interesting from a cap perspective.  In an ideal world, Colorado would operate below the cap to start the year and avoid needing to put Landeskog on LTIR.  Doing so would allow them to bank some space, meaning they’d have less to clear when he and Nichushkin return.  Once that happens, they’ll be a capped-out squad needing to match money.

At the moment, the Avs have nearly $71MM in commitments for 2025-26, a number that will jump considerably if Rantanen signs his extension.  By the time they do that, re-sign or replace Georgiev, and round out the roster, they won’t have much flexibility next summer either.  The 2027 offseason is when they’ll start to have some ability to change up the roster but with several core players needing new deals then, that cap space could go away quickly.  It’s fair to say that GM Chris MacFarland will be navigating through some tight cap situations in the near future.

Photos courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Colorado Avalanche| Pro Hockey Rumors Originals| Salary Cap Deep Dive 2024

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