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Central Notes: Girard, Milota, Guskov

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While Colorado ultimately wasn’t able to re-sign defenseman Ryan Lindgren (who instead inked a four-year deal with Seattle), their efforts to do so called into question the future of Samuel Girard with the team.  Aarif Deen of Colorado Hockey Now speculates that the Avalanche could be open to moving the blueliner.  While he was deployed as their third defender during the regular season, his usage dropped to third-pairing minutes in the postseason and if head coach Jared Bednar feels that’s the more optimal spot for him moving forward, he’d be a pricey third-pairing player at $5MM through the next two seasons.

Although the Avs are into cap compliance after some offseason shuffling, they could still use some more flexibility on that front, especially with Martin Necas eyeing a significant extension for 2026-27.  On the other hand, Girard is one of just two left-shot blueliners in the Avalanche’s top six so if they were to move him, it might be more of a player-for-player swap that would see them get another blueliner in return rather than a true cap-clearing move.

Elsewhere in the Central:

  • Predators prospect Jakub Milota has been traded in the QMJHL as Cape Breton announced that they traded the netminder to Blainville-Boisbriand. The 19-year-old was a fourth-round pick in 2024, going 99th overall and is coming off a decent season with the Eagles that saw him post a 3.22 GAA and a .903 SV% while also earning a late-season ATO with AHL Milwaukee.  The Preds have until June 1, 2026 to sign Milota so it’s safe to say 2025-26 will be a key season for him.
  • Wild draft pick Matvei Guskov is on the move in the KHL as the league announced earlier this week that he has been traded from Traktor Chelyabinsk to Severstal Cherepovets. The 24-year-old was a fifth-round pick back in 2019 with Minnesota holding his rights indefinitely with no transfer agreement in place between the NHL and the Russian Hockey Federation.  Guskov is coming off a tough year that saw him record just one goal and three assists in 38 games between three different KHL teams.

Maple Leafs Re-Sign Nicholas Robertson

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There will be no arbitration hearings in the NHL this summer.  The last remaining case has settled as the Maple Leafs announced that they have re-signed winger Nicholas Robertson to a one-year, $1.825MM contract.

The agreement comes one day after the two sides made their submissions in advance of Sunday’s scheduled hearing.  Toronto filed at $1.2MM while Robertson’s camp came in at $2.25MM.  The midpoint of those numbers is $1.725MM so Robertson was able to beat that by $100K with this agreement while it represents a big raise on the $875K he received last season.

The 23-year-old has shown himself to be a capable depth scorer but that alone hasn’t been enough to stay in the lineup with much consistency.  After notching 14 goals in 56 games in 2023-24, Robertson was able to slightly beat that total last season, tallying 15 times while adding seven assists in 69 games.  He also averaged a career-high 12:00 per game of playing time.

However, while he was in the lineup more often than not during the regular season, that wasn’t the case in the playoffs.  Robertson played in just three games for the Maple Leafs during the playoffs despite picking up points in two of those outings, a goal and an assist.

The lack of consistent playing time led Robertson to request a trade last summer, an ask that wasn’t granted.  At this point, it doesn’t appear as if the request has been dropped either.  However, a $1.825MM price tag for a player who hasn’t been able to stay in the lineup on a regular basis might be on the high side for some teams although a swap of young forwards on similar contracts could be a viable path to a change of scenery for Robertson.

On the other hand, Toronto’s most prominent offseason addition up front to replace Mitch Marner was winger Matias Maccelli, acquired from Utah.  With the Maple Leafs looking to ice a more balanced lineup, there could be a chance for Robertson to get more of a look in a top-six or even top-nine role in 2025-26 and if that were to happen, he might be inclined to rescind his request to be moved.

With the signing, Toronto has all its NHL restricted free agents under contract but they still have a pair of prospects to re-sign over the coming weeks in goaltender Dennis Hildeby and defenseman William Villeneuve.  While Hildeby was arbitration-eligible, he declined to file for a hearing early last month.

Now that Robertson is signed, the cap picture for the Maple Leafs looks clearer.  Per PuckPedia, Toronto has around $1.1MM in flexibility, albeit with 24 players on its roster with the maximum being 23 healthy players.  That gives GM Brad Treliving a bit of wiggle room to work with while they’re believed to be looking to move winger Calle Jarnkrok ($2.1MM) and David Kampf ($2.4MM) to open up both cap and roster space.  Their ability (or lack thereof) to do so might ultimately dictate if they can make any other moves this summer.

Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman was the first to report the deal. 

Free Agent Profile: Luke Glendening

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While a 36-year-old forward coming off a seven-point season may not seem like much of an asset, veteran center Luke Glendening could still bring meaningful value in the right situation. Glendening suited up in 77 games last season for the Tampa Bay Lightning, posting just four goals and three assists while centering the team’s fourth line.

Despite limited offensive production, he remained defensively reliable, tallying 105 hits, 58 blocked shots, and a 57 percent faceoff win rate — impressively in line with his 55.8 percent career average. It marked the eighth consecutive season that Glendening posted a faceoff win rate of at least 55 percent, which could be a valuable asset for any team looking to win key draws in the defensive zone.

While he’s never been an asset in the offensive zone (as told by his 166 points in 864 games), Glendening has carved out an impressive 12-year career thanks to his grit, physicality, and defensive prowess. Over the course of his career — which began in Detroit and includes stops in Dallas and Tampa — Glendening has logged 10 seasons with at least 100 hits and 11 seasons with 50 or more blocked shots. He has also received Selke votes on three separate occasions, a testament to his defensive reliability.

2024-25: 77 GP, 4 G, 3 A, 7 PTS, -9, 10 PIMS, 51 shots, 10:47 ATOI, 57.0 FO%, 38.3 CF%
Career: 864 GP, 83 G, 83 A, 166 PTS, -84, 308 PIMS, 944 shots, 13:37 ATOI, 55.8 FO%, 36.4 CF%

Potential Suitors

While many teams could benefit from a veteran fourth-line center with faceoff expertise, it appears Glendening’s most recent club isn’t one of them. Despite being a nightly fixture in the Lightning’s lineup, it was reported prior to the start of free agency that the Bolts were going to let Glendening hit the open market, where he remains today.

As mentioned earlier, Glendening could fit with a number of teams, whether it’s a contender in need of bottom-six experience or a rebuilding squad seeking veteran leadership and a few niche skills.

Projected Contract

At this stage of his career, any contract offer Glendening receives is likely to be a one-year deal in the $775,000 to $800,000 range. While his defensive reliability and faceoff expertise still offer value, his limited offensive upside and advancing age significantly narrow his market. Glendening may also have to settle for a PTO and attempt to earn a roster spot by outperforming younger competition in training camp.

Photo credit: Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Kings Sign RFA Alex Laferriere To Three-Year Deal

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The Los Angeles Kings have signed restricted free agent Alex Laferriere to a three-year, $12.3MM contract, per a team announcement. The deal comes with a $4.1MM cap hit per season. The deal includes a $3.5MM salary for year one and $4.4MM salaries for years two and three, per PuckPedia. The Kings extended a qualifying offer to Laferriere on July 1, and it took exactly one month for both sides to come to terms on a new deal.

Coming off of his second season in the league, the 24-year-old right winger posted a solid 19 goals and 42 points in 77 games. He also produced a plus-22 rating, 124 hits, and 43 blocked shots while averaging 16:22 of ice time per night. He added three assists in six playoff games.

A third-round selection in the 2020 draft (83rd overall), the New Jersey native quickly established himself as one of the franchise’s key prospects. After being drafted, Laferriere spent two seasons in the NCAA at Harvard University, where he put up 73 points in 69 games. He then made his pro debut in the AHL with the Ontario Reign at the tail end of the 2022-23 season.

That was all the minor league experience the 6’1″, 205-pound winger needed. The following season, he broke camp with the Kings and appeared in 81 games as a rookie, posting 12 goals and 23 points. He took a major step forward offensively this last season (doubling his point total), and it’s reasonable to expect continued growth.

Frank Seravalli was first to report the agreement.

Western Notes: Dostal, Jets, Garland

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The Anaheim Ducks face several key questions heading into the 2025–26 season, one of which is whether goalie Lukas Dostal can deliver a breakout campaign following the trade of veteran John Gibson, per NHL.com’s David Satriano.

Dostal appeared in a career-high 54 games with Anaheim last season, securing a 23-23-7 record and a .903 save percentage that aligns with his career average of .902. That performance allowed the Ducks to trade Gibson to the Red Wings at the draft for goaltender Petr Mrazek and two draft picks, as well as land Dostal a five-year, $32.5MM contract on July 17.

A 25-year-old native of the Czech Republic, Dostal is expected to lead one of the league’s only true three-man rotations in net, along with Mrazek and Ville Husso. But according to new head coach Joel Quenneville, Dostal possesses special traits that could help him take the next step in his career.

“Dostal had a tremendous year. I don’t know too many people that get a rave review at this age of their career about what a professional, what a competitor (they are), but everybody always says the greatest things about him. … I don’t know if this guy’s a stereotypical goalie, but at the same time, he’s got some different ways about him that makes him special,” he said.

Elsewhere in the Western Conference:

  • While the Winnipeg Jets added veteran leadership to their forward group this offseason by signing the likes of Jonathan Toews and Gustav Nyquist, NHL.com’s Darrin Bauming wonders if a few rising forward prospects could crack the lineup to start the season. Bauming lists both 22-year-old Nikita Chibrikov and 21-year-old Brad Lambert as being “on the cusp” of regular NHL time. Chibrikov appeared in four games for the Jets last season, recording three points. The 5’10”, 175-pound winger added 18 points in 30 games for the AHL’s Manitoba Moose. Lambert posted 35 points in 61 games last season for Manitoba, and 55 points in 55 points in 64 games for the squad the year before. The native of Finland has yet to appear in an NHL game but should break through at some point this upcoming season.
  • The road for Vancouver Canucks’ forward Conor Garland wasn’t always easy, which makes his six-year, $36 million extension he signed on July 1 all the sweeter, outlines Ben Kuzma of The Province. As Kuzma notes, Garland has faced adversity throughout his hockey journey (largely due to his small stature), which included not making the famed Shattuck-Saint Mary’s junior team in Minnesota that produced several NHL stars, including the aforementioned Toews. That adversity, however, has been a driving force behind the player Garland is today — one who has missed just two games over the past three seasons while tallying 143 points. Garland feels his extension was not just for prior results, but also for the continued growth he and the team expect. “I try to come back each year better, and I know I have to produce more. I’ve learned most about consistency. When the puck wasn’t going in, or I wasn’t making plays, I became a pretty responsible defensive forward on a shutdown line,” he said.

Red Wings’ Jonatan Berggren Set For Watershed Season

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There aren’t many holdovers from the Ken Holland era for the Detroit Red Wings. Even though the long-time General Manager is only six years removed from leading Detroit’s front office, Dylan Larkin, Michael Rasmussen, and Jonatan Berggren are the only three who have survived the transition to Steve Yzerman. Given that the former two already have concrete spots on the Red Wings’ roster moving forward, Berggren is gearing up for what could be a make-or-break season in HockeyTown.

It wasn’t all that long ago that Berggren was considered one of Detroit’s better prospects. The Red Wings selected the Uppsala, Sweden native with the 33rd overall pick of the 2018 NHL Draft out of the SHL’s Skellefteå AIK program. It took a few years for Berggren to make the jump to professional hockey in his home country, but he capped it off with an impressive 12-goal, 45-point effort in 48 games for them in the 2020-21 SHL season.

Having a dire need for offense, the Red Wings brought Berggren overseas for the 2021-22 campaign, starting with their AHL affiliate, the Grand Rapids Griffins. He rewarded Detroit for their confidence in his abilities, scoring 21 goals and 64 points in 70 games during his rookie season, finishing second in rookie scoring behind JJ Peterka, then of the AHL’s Rochester Americans.

Finishing as one of the worst offensive teams for the 2021-22 campaign, the Red Wings recalled Berggren for his NHL debut during the 2022-23 season. Unfortunately, despite a higher-than-normal shooting percentage and quality CorsiFor% at even strength, Berggren finished his rookie season with 15 goals and 28 points in 67 games with a -14 rating, averaging 13:28 of ice time per game.

Adding several forwards during the following offseason, Berggren quickly lost his spot on Detroit’s roster. He failed to make the team out of training camp and became the subject of trade rumors with the Red Wings looking to take a step toward contention. For some reason or another, no trade materialized, and Berggren finished the campaign with 24 goals and 56 points in 55 games at the AHL level, with another two goals and six points in 12 NHL contests.

The trade speculation regarding Berggren continued into the offseason before finally signing a one-year, $825K contract with the Red Wings a week before training camp. Unlike the previous campaign, he made the team out of camp and finished the 2024-25 season with 12 goals and 24 points in 75 games, averaging 12:59 of ice time per night. Although he had been known for his offense throughout his days as a prospect, Berggren was a defensive bright spot for Detroit last season, finishing with a 91.1% on-ice save percentage at even strength, one of the highest marks on the team considering his ATOI.

Still, with the Red Wings again looking to take a step toward contention, and Berggren becoming arbitration-eligible next offseason, his future in Detroit may rely on the quality of his 2025-26 campaign. Berggren acknowledged as much in a recent interview with team correspondent, Jonathan Mills, saying, “Last year was a good year for me. I feel like I got more opportunity after Todd [McLellan] became head coach, and I think I played better. This one-year deal is a prove-it-deal for me. I want to show what I can do.”

Putting more pressure on Berggren this season, Detroit has numerous forward prospects looking to make the full-time jump to the NHL level. Nate Danielson, Amadeus Lombardi, Michael Brandsegg-Nygård, and Carter Mazur, to name a few, are pushing hard to get to the next level, and Berggren could be one of the first casualties.

There’s always a need for defensive-minded forwards at the NHL level. Still, there is a not-so-subtle expectation that Berggren will become more of an efficient point producer with the Red Wings. If he’s unable to do that this upcoming season, there’s a decent chance he’ll be removed from any of Detroit’s future planning.

Photo courtesy of Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images.

Metro Notes: Pyyhtia, Hunt, Lindstrom, Ritchie

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Outside of a pending trade request from winger Yegor Chinakhov, the Columbus Blue Jackets have already completed most of their heavy lifting this offseason. Still, on the fringes of their summer to-do list, restricted free agents Mikael Pyyhtia and Daemon Hunt are without contracts for the upcoming season.

According to Aaron Portzline of The Athletic, there is zero concern from the organization that deals won’t get completed with either player. Neither Pyyhtia nor Hunt has arbitration rights, so there’s no real fear of leaving them unsigned through August.

Furthermore, there’s little chance either player will be a huge factor for the Blue Jackets next season, anyway. Pyyhtia underwent a lengthy 47-game tryout with the team last season, but spent the second half of the year in the AHL after recording only four goals and seven points. Meanwhile, Hunt’s only game last season came with the Minnesota Wild before being moved in the David Jiříček trade.

Other notes from the Metro Division:

  • Staying in Columbus, the fourth-overall pick of the 2024 NHL Draft, Cayden Lindstrom, expressed his appreciation for the organization last season despite not registering a game. In an interview with Craig Merz of NHL.com, Lindstrom spoke about staying in Columbus around the team after his back surgery last season, saying, “I took so much and learned so much from all the older guys and they gave me so many pointers and cues that I’ll remember forever.” Lindstrom will play for the NCAA’s Michigan State University Spartans next season.
  • Moving east in the Metro Division, New York Islanders youngster Calum Ritchie is hoping to make the team’s opening night roster out of training camp. In a recent interview with Stefen Rosner of The Hockey News, Ritchie said, “I’m going to come in here and work as hard as I can to show them what I’ve got.” Ritchie was one of the main pieces acquired by the Islanders last offseason from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for center Brock Nelson. The 27th overall pick of the 2023 NHL Draft scored 15 goals and 70 points in 47 games for the OHL’s Oshawa Generals last season.

Hockey Canada Announces Preliminary Roster For 2026 Olympics

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Hockey Canada will host an orientation camp from Aug. 26 to 28 in Calgary in preparation for its men’s, women’s, and para hockey teams as they begin to formulate their rosters for the 2026 Winter Olympics in Italy, the governing body announced Friday.

That number includes 42 NHL players, locking in a list of potential names for the final rosters, which can be a maximum of 25 players (22 skaters, three goalies). The IIHF had previously announced Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, Connor McDavid, Brayden Point, and Sam Reinhart as the country’s first six players back in June.

One position that appears set for the Canadians is goaltending. Only three netminders are on their orientation camp roster: Jordan Binnington, Adin Hill, and Sam Montembeault. That’s the same trio that backstopped Canada to a win in February’s 4 Nations Face-Off.

Here’s the full initial talent pool that Canada’s braintrust will be choosing from, with an asterisk by each of the six players already locked into the roster:

Forwards

Connor Bedard (Blackhawks)
Sam Bennett (Panthers)
Quinton Byfield (Kings)
Macklin Celebrini (Sharks)
Anthony Cirelli (Lightning)
Sidney Crosby (Penguins)*
Brandon Hagel (Lightning)
Bo Horvat (Islanders)
Zach Hyman (Oilers)
Seth Jarvis (Hurricanes)
Wyatt Johnston (Stars)
Travis Konecny (Flyers)
Nathan MacKinnon (Avalanche)*
Brad Marchand (Panthers)
Mitch Marner (Golden Knights)
Connor McDavid (Oilers)*
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (Oilers)
Brayden Point (Lightning)*
Sam Reinhart (Panthers)*
Mark Scheifele (Jets)
Mark Stone (Golden Knights)
Nick Suzuki (Canadiens)
John Tavares (Maple Leafs)
Robert Thomas (Blues)
Carter Verhaeghe (Panthers)
Tom Wilson (Capitals)

Defensemen

Evan Bouchard (Oilers)
Noah Dobson (Canadiens)
Drew Doughty (Kings)
Aaron Ekblad (Panthers)
Thomas Harley (Stars)
Cale Makar (Avalanche)*
Brandon Montour (Kraken)
Josh Morrissey (Jets)
Colton Parayko (Blues)
Travis Sanheim (Flyers)
Shea Theodore (Golden Knights)
Devon Toews (Avalanche)
MacKenzie Weegar (Flames)

Goaltenders

Jordan Binnington (Blues)
Adin Hill (Golden Knights)
Sam Montembeault (Canadiens)

Hockey Canada has already announced its front office, led by Blues GM Doug Armstrong with Lightning GM Julien BriseBois, Stars GM Jim Nill, and Bruins GM Don Sweeney as his assistants. Penguins GM Kyle Dubas is Canada’s director of player personnel and also had input in orientation camp selection, per the release, along with head coach Jon Cooper and former Ducks captain Ryan Getzlaf, who’s with the team as a player relations advisor.

International Notes: Henman, Little, Good Bogg

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After spending the last four years in the minors with the Kraken organization, center Luke Henman is headed to Finland on a one-year deal with Ilves, the Liiga club announced today.

Henman, 25, was actually the first signing in Seattle franchise history in 2021. He was a fourth-round pick of the Hurricanes in 2018 but never signed, instead becoming an unrestricted free agent.

He’d remained in the Seattle organization ever since, recording 26 goals and 33 assists for 59 points in 229 AHL games for their affiliates in Charlotte and Coachella Valley. They re-signed him last summer after his entry-level contract expired, but since Henman was old enough and had accrued enough experience for Group VI unrestricted free agency this year, he was ineligible for a qualifying offer and wasn’t retained.

The Nova Scotia native will now head to Ilves, one of two Liiga clubs based in the city of Tampere. While the club is light on NHL-experienced talent, they’ve finished second in Liiga in three straight years as they aim to capture their first title since 1985.

There’s more from overseas:

  • American winger Broc Little has announced his retirement, according to the SHL’s Linköping HC. Little, 37, was an ECAC champion and All-Star with Yale but was never drafted and never signed an NHL contract. He spent the vast majority of his professional career in Europe aside from a 21-game AHL stint with Springfield and Iowa back in 2013-14. He played 10 of his 14 pro seasons for Linköping, where he’s served as an alternate captain since 2018 and led the SHL in goals twice. His 367 points in 454 games for Linköping are fifth in franchise history.
  • Islanders defense prospect Dennis Good Bogg has found a place to play next season, signing with Väsby IK of HockeyEttan, Sweden’s third division. Good Bogg, 21, was a seventh-round pick in 2023, and New York holds his signing rights for two more years. Unless something changes drastically, he likely won’t ever sign an NHL contract. The 6’2″, 201-lb lefty has yet to reach Sweden’s top flight and has struggled at lower levels. He split last season between second-tier club Östersunds and third-tier club Mariestad, combining for just three points and a -10 rating in 35 games.

Arbitration Breakdown: Nicholas Robertson

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Every player to file for arbitration so far this offseason has avoided a hearing, and only one case even got remotely close. That likely won’t be the case for the Maple Leafs and Nicholas Robertson, who have until their hearing starts on Sunday to settle before an arbitrator’s award will decide their fate.

Filings

Team: $1.2MM
Player: $2.25MM
Midpoint: $1.725MM

(via Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet)

The Numbers

Nothing much really changed last season for Robertson. After a trade request last summer didn’t come to fruition, he ended up inking a one-year, $875K deal to return to Toronto in hopes of landing a more consistent role in their top-nine forward group. That didn’t happen. While he did make a career-high 69 appearances, the 23-year-old’s usage remained conservative at 12 minutes per game, and his point pace dropped off from his 2023-24 performance. He finished the year with 15 goals – seventh on the team – but only seven assists for 22 points, a rate of 0.32 per game after he recorded 0.48 per game the year before in lesser minutes.

The younger brother of Stars centerpiece Jason Robertson has always been viewed as one of the higher-ceiling young offensive options in Toronto’s system. He’s shown it in flashes, but it’s clear at this stage he needs a longer leash and more minutes to truly be effective without many other elements to his game (although he did manage a career-high 79 hits last year).

Whether he’ll receive that in Toronto remains to be seen. In any event, the Leafs’ seven-figure filing is significantly higher than his $775K cap hit from 2024-25, so it’s clear they’re anticipating on him playing a slightly more regular role in 2025-26 and will presumably count on him for more depth scoring in the wake of Mitch Marner’s departure. But for a player with just over 150 career appearances, it’s going to be a tad difficult to project how a potential hearing may shake out.

2024-25 Stats: 69 GP, 15-7–22, -1 rating, 16 PIMs, 112 shots, 12:00 ATOI
Career Stats: 156 GP, 32-24–56, +2 rating, 24 PIMs, 258 shots, 11:28 ATOI

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency, which means UFA deals and entry-level pacts are ineligible to be used.  The contracts below fit within those parameters.  Player salaries (or current-year equivalents) also fall within the parameters of the submitted numbers by both sides.  Career stats listed are as of the time of signing.

Jonatan Berggren (Red Wings) – Berggren is a year older than Robertson and has fewer seasons of NHL experience, but they’ve both clicked at around a 30-point pace for their career in similar deployment. Like Robertson, Berggren’s platform year saw him play the most games of his career, but not with the best per-game production rate. While an imperfect science, there’s good evidence for both sides here to argue for a deal closer to the midpoint rather than an extreme swing toward either Toronto’s or the player’s filing.

Contract (2025): One year, $1.825MM AAV, 1.9 CH%
Platform Stats: 75 GP, 12-12–24, -13 rating, 14 PIMs, 88 shots, 12:59 ATOI
Career Stats: 154 GP, 29-29–58, -28 rating, 32 PIMs, 200 shots, 13:01 ATOI

Sonny Milano (Ducks) – This may be the best comparable available aside from its outdatedness. Milano was also coming off his age-23 season and, like Robertson, had five years of NHL experience despite the lower games-played total. Note the higher cap hit percentage since the deal was signed five years ago – that might be something Robertson’s camp puts on the table to get him closer to or at the $2MM mark for his award (a 2.1 CH% with a $95.5MM cap ceiling is almost exactly $2MM on the dot).

Contract (2020): Two years, $1.7MM AAV, 2.1 CH%
Platform Stats: 55 GP, 7-16–23, -7 rating, 26 PIMs, 75 shots, 13:06 ATOI
Career Stats: 125 GP, 22-25–47, -17 rating, 36 PIMs, 153 shots, 12:07 ATOI

Jack Quinn (Sabres) – Quinn comes across near the higher end of these comparables. While the perception around Quinn having a down year last season may have some truth to it, the numbers still point to him being at least a tier above Robertson in terms of what he’s actually produced. Add in Quinn’s draft pedigree as a No. 9 overall pick, and it’s easier to see why Robertson’s filing wasn’t higher than it was, although his camp may still attempt to draw comparisons to convince the arbitrator to side with them outright.

Contract (2025): Two years, $3.375MM AAV, 3.5 CH%
Platform Stats: 74 GP, 15-24–39, -18 rating, 18 PIMs, 123 shots, 14:52 ATOI
Career Stats: 178 GP, 39-58–97, -26 rating, 41 PIMs, 311 shots, 14:33 ATOI

Filip Zadina (Red Wings) – Aside from the draft pedigree, Zadina’s comparable here is also a pretty direct one. He was only one year younger than Robertson was at the time of their contract signings, but had seen more deployment to the tune of similar career offensive results with worse defensive impacts. Given the cap percentage, this would come across as a more advantageous comparable for Robertson.

Contract (2022): Three years, $1.825MM AAV, 2.2 CH%
Platform Stats: 74 GP, 10-14–24, -24 rating, 10 PIMs, 154 shots, 14:11 ATOI
Career Stats: 160 GP, 25-36–61, -46 rating, 12 PIMs, 329 shots, 15:13 ATOI

Projection

Since Robertson was the one to file and has multiple years of team control remaining, the Maple Leafs can pick a one or two-year term for his next contract after the arbitrator awards the AAV. Considering his inconsistent year-to-year pace, it stands to reason they’d pick a one-year deal to make him a more attractive trade chip if he doesn’t pan out this year (or give themselves the option to walk away entirely next summer).

The comparable contracts advocate for a deal near the midpoint but slightly in Robertson’s favor, likely in the $1.8MM-$2MM range. It may not be as much as he wanted, but it still doubles last year’s salary and will give him a seven-figure salary for the first time in his career.

Image courtesy of John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images.

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