PHR Playoff Primer: Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights
With the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs now underway, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? Our Conference Finals coverage continues with the Western Conference matchup between the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights.
The Stanley Cup Playoffs semifinal matchups are set and the Sun Belt franchises will take center stage. While the Carolina Hurricanes will take on the Florida Panthers in the Eastern Conference Final, it will be the Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights facing off to be the western conference champion.
While the Western Conference Final features two teams in non-traditional hockey markets, these are no cinderella squads on an unlikely run. In fact, the Stars and Golden Knights are two powerhouses who will go toe-to-toe in what promises to be an exciting, fast-paced and highly skilled matchup.
The Golden Knights finished atop the Pacific Division standings and were the top ranked team in the entire western conference with a record of 51-22-9 which gave them 111 points. The Stars were not far behind, finishing second in the Central Division with 108 points, just one back of the Colorado Avalanche for top spot in the division.
Regular Season Performance
Vegas: 51-22-9, 111 points, +43 goal differential
Dallas: 47-21-14, 108 points, +67 goal differential
Head-To-Head
January 16, 2023: Dallas 4, Vegas 0
February 25, 2023: Dallas 3, Vegas 2 (SO)
April 8, 2023: Dallas 2, Vegas 1 (SO)
Dallas takes season series 3-0-0
Team Storylines
One question for Vegas is whether or not star winger Mark Stone has another strong series in him. He is clearly dealing with back discomfort and appeared frustrated at times in the postseason as teams targeted him. He remained calm enough to score a pair of goals and four points in six games while playing great defensive hockey as usual. Can he continue to play well throughout the postseason? We shall soon find out.
Speaking of great defensive hockey, one question for the Stars is can they break through the Golden Knights defensive shield at even strength? The Edmonton Oilers could not get anything done at 5-on-5 against the Golden Knights, even with two of the league’s best players on their roster. The Oilers, the NHL’s highest scoring team in the regular season, scored ten goals in the final four games of their series with the Golden Knights, lost three of them and were eliminated.
The Stars have shown they have the depth to score at even strength. In their seven game series victory over the Seattle Kraken, they scored 22 goals at even strength, which is an average of just over three per game.
Will they be able to continue that pace in round three? Joe Pavelski is scoring at will this postseason with eight goals in eight games played. Roope Hintz leads the way for the Stars with 19 points in 13 games. Jason Robertson, Max Domi, Jamie Benn, Tyler Seguin, and Evgeni Dadonov all have nine or more points in 13 games as well giving the Stars tremendous scoring depth up front.
Flipping back to the Golden Knights, they have plenty of scoring depth of their own. Jack Eichel leads the way with 14 points in 11 games so far in the playoffs. Stone is also over a point per game with 12. Chandler Stephenson, Jonathan Marchessault, Ivan Barbashev, Reilly Smith andWilliam Karlsson all have eight or more points, with scoring coming from each of the team’s top three lines.
Both teams bolster deep blue lines as well. The Golden Knights rely heavily on Alex Pietrangelo, Shea Theodore andAlec Martinez who form a tremendous top three. Nic Hague, Brayden McNabb and Zach Whitecloud round out an extremely deep and talented group of two-way defenders who can chip in with plenty of offense while playing fantastic defensive hockey.
The Stars have a nice mix of veteran savvy and youthful exuberance on the back end. Ryan Suter and Colin Miller may not be as effective as they once were, but they provide a steady defensive presence and leadership qualities. Miro Heiskanen is an elite defenseman who could garner Conn Smythe votes if he keeps playing the way he has so far in the postseason. The 23 year old is joined by 21 year old Thomas Harley, who quickly emerged as a key defender and has seven points in 13 playoff games.
Perhaps the biggest question heading into this series is which goaltender can bounce back the quickest? Neither were spectacular in the second round, but getting hot for the next two weeks would lead their team to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Jake Oettinger started every game for the Stars in their series win over the Kraken, but he had a 3.50 GAA and a .877 save percentage in those seven games. Adin Hill took over from Laurent Brossoit and started the final three games of the series after performing well in relief in Game 2 and 3. He allowed seven goals in his first two starts but then shut the door, stopping 38 of 40 shots to help the Knights advance with a Game 6 win.
Will Oettinger return to form and be the best goalie in the series? Or will Hill use his most recent start as a jumping off point for a great series? The answers to those questions could determine who moves on to the Stanley Cup Finals.
Dallas Stars head coach Peter Deboer is in familiar territory in this series. He was hired as the coach of the Golden Knights in January of 2020 and helped them reach the Western Conference Final where they lost to the… Dallas Stars. This rematch now sees Deboer on the other bench, and he will look to get back at his former team for firing him.
Prediction
Two deep teams with no weaknesses that jump out at you will lead to a long series. Both teams have deep blue lines, both teams will get scoring from up and down their lineup, both teams can defend well and play a physical style of hockey.
Also important at this time of year is both teams have remained quite healthy. Everyone is dealing with bumps and bruises but there are no long-term injuries to star players on either lineup right now. That makes the margin for error quite slim on either side.
When it all boils down, goaltending could be the difference, and Oettinger seems to be the more likely choice to have a strong seven game series. That could give the slightest of edges to the Stars in a series that promises to be a long and memorable one.
Prediction: Stars win in seven games.
Calgary Flames Linked To Craig Conroy For GM Role
As Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli noted on Sportsnet 960 today, the Calgary Flames could be considering an organizational veteran to fill their vacant general manager role. Longtime assistant general manager and former team captain Craig Conroy could be in line for a promotion after the team parted ways with Brad Treliving last month.
I don’t know that there’s a front-runner. But if I were gambling and you gave me a list of names, and I do like to gamble, I would say my money would be on Craig Conroy.
With a history of strong leadership and a deep understanding of the Flames organization, Conroy emerges as a viable candidate to guide the team toward success. Having served as an assistant general manager since 2014 and a special assistant for four seasons prior, Conroy has demonstrated his commitment and dedication to the franchise, contributing significantly to player development, scouting, and day-to-day operations. His extensive experience, combined with his passion for the Flames, makes him an appealing choice for the top management position and would better position the Flames on draft day with a familiar face at the helm.
On the ice, Conroy played in 507 games with Calgary over parts of nine seasons, recording 97 goals, 211 assists, and 308 points, earning a Selke nomination in a career-best 2001-02 season.
With the firing of head coach Darryl Sutter reportedly influenced in part by exit interviews from players, it’s evident the Flames remain committed to making it work with their current core and will try to get the most out of what they have. Hiring an internal candidate would certainly align with that philosophy.
Seravalli also reported the Flames are nearing the end of their search, regardless if Conroy earns the seat or not, saying they want to have Treliving’s successor in place next week.
West Notes: Lehner, Burakovsky, Iginla
One name oft forgotten in the Vegas Golden Knights goalie carousel this season is Robin Lehner, who spent the entire 2022-23 campaign on long-term injured reserve. After missing the tail end of the 2021-22 campaign with a significant shoulder injury, it was actually off-season hip surgery that kept Lehner out for the year.
The Swedish netminder remains one of the best around when healthy, but Golden Knights general manager Kelly McCrimmon today didn’t have any update on Lehner’s status moving forward. McCrimmon noted Lehner is still undergoing rehab on both of his hips, but didn’t have a recent update on his progress. Lehner’s absence hasn’t hindered the Golden Knights much this season, and he could be a trade candidate if he does get healthy to clear some cap space. The 2019 Vezina Trophy nominee is locked in at a $5MM cap hit through 2025, making him an affordable option for a team in need of a starting netminder.
- Seattle Kraken general manager Ron Francis offered some clarity today on the injury that kept star winger Andre Burakovsky out of the lineup down the stretch of the season. Per Francis, Burakovsky tore his groin on his first shift after the All-Star break and suffered multiple setbacks in his recovery, sidelining him for the remainder of the regular season and playoffs. The 28-year-old was having a spectacular first season in Seattle before the injury, scoring 39 points in 49 games in a top-six role.
- After selecting him in 12th overall in last week’s WHL Prospects Draft, the Edmonton Oil Kings have officially brought 14-year-old Joe Iginla, son of Calgary Flames legend Jarome Iginla, into the organization on a scholarship and development agreement. Iginla posted monster numbers at the U15 level this season with his dad coaching, scoring 65 points in 27 games, and even got some looks in U16 and U17 play. Iginla is not NHL draft eligible until 2026 and is not expected to join the Oil Kings until the 2024-25 season.
Minor Transactions: Gatcomb, Veinbergs, Hanna
The Abbotsford Canucks announced today that they have signed forward Marc Gatcomb to a one-year AHL contract extension. Gatcomb doesn’t offer much in the way of offence having put up just three goals and five assists in 45 games this season. It was the first full AHL season for the 23-year-old after he spent four years at the University of Connecticut.
The Woburn, Massachusetts native was never drafted to the NHL and had previously signed as a free agent last summer after wrapping up his college career. He had a stint in the ECHL with the Kalamazoo Wings dressing in six games and tallying a goal and three assists but wrapped up the season in Abbotsford. He was praised by Abbotsford general manager Ryan Johnson as being one of the most improved players and seemed to gain the trust of head coach Jeremy Colliton. This was evidenced in the playoffs where Gatcomb appeared in all six of the club’s playoff games.
In other minor transactions:
- Tampa Bay Lightning 2022 seventh round draft pick Klavs Veinbergs committed to Colorado College today. The 20-year-old will begin his college career after spending last year with the Lincoln Stars of the United States Hockey League where he put up 12 goals and 16 assists in 50 games. Veinbergs has represented his country in multiple international tournaments and made a bit of noise at the World Juniors in the summer of 2022. He is the fourth Latvian drafted by the Lightning with the last one being in 2013 when Tampa Bay selected Kristers Gudlevskis.
- Canadian defenseman Shane Hanna signed an extension today to remain in Germany and play with the Starbulls Rosenheim of the DEL2 league. Hanna, a native of New Westminster, British Columbia previously played 78 games with the Texas Stars of the AHL where he put up two goals and 11 assists. The 29-year-old has fared better offensively the past four years but has bounced around in the process playing in Slovakia, Italy, and Denmark.
Arizona Coyotes Considering Mesa Mall Site For Potential Arena
We have some clarity on the rumblings yesterday surrounding a Plan B for the Arizona Coyotes to remain in the Phoenix area. Per CBS 5 Phoenix’s Dennis Welch, the Coyotes have reached out to the City of Mesa to discuss a potential arena on land currently occupied by the soon-to-be-demolished Fiesta Mall.
If the plan does come to pass, it could finally be a sustainable long-term solution for the team in Arizona. It’s prime land located in the largest eastern suburb of Phoenix, in an area where most of the Coyotes’ fanbase is located.
However, as Welch notes, this arena proposal could be subject to the same processes, including a public vote, that failed to approve the team’s proposal for an arena and entertainment district in Tempe two nights ago. It’s a high-risk investment that would almost certainly require immediate relocation of the team if it falls through, given their struggles up to this point.
The Fiesta Mall, once the largest and busiest shopping center in Mesa, has been completely vacant since 2019. The land’s current owners submitted paperwork to move forward with demolishing the mall in March.
Any proposal for an arena will have to be completed and submitted quickly. The already financially struggling team has no long-term security, and the off-ice struggles will continue to hinder the team’s ability to attract talent and ice a competitive team until their arena situation is resolved.
While their 2023-24 home is secured, set to play another season at Arizona State University’s Mullett Arena, relocation remains a looming option past that if an approved proposal doesn’t materialize soon.
Washington Capitals Extend Affiliation Agreement With South Carolina Stingrays
The Washington Capitals and the ECHL’s South Carolina Stingrays have extended their affiliation agreement through the 2025-26 season, per a team release Thursday morning.
The upcoming 2023-24 season will be the 10th consecutive campaign the Capitals and Stingrays have been affiliated with each other. The Capitals were also previously affiliated with South Carolina from 2004 to 2012.
In the combined 17 seasons of affiliation, the Stingrays have only missed the playoffs twice. Considering Washington’s prioritization of minor league success with their AHL affiliate, the Hershey Bears, South Carolina’s strong play at the ECHL level comes as little surprise.
Their success includes winning the Kelly Cup in 2009 and clinching three conference championships since 2015. The Stingrays achieved a record of 45-22-4-1 this season, finishing first in the ECHL’s South Division and second in the Eastern Conference.
Capitals senior vice president and general manager Brian MacLellan issued the following statement:
We are pleased to renew our partnership with the South Carolina Stingrays. For several seasons, the Stingrays have provided our prospects a winning environment in which they can develop, and we are looking forward to continuing our affiliation.
While it’s rare for any high-end NHL prospects to see ECHL time, aside from the occasional goaltender, ECHL teams still directly influence organizational success. AHL and ECHL teams maintain tight relationships, and a winning culture at one level tends to bleed through to the other. These affiliates can also prove vital in developing more raw prospects not quite ready for extended AHL time, something the Capitals exhibited this season.
Five players who participated in games for South Carolina this season attended the Capitals’ 2022 training camp. Among them were forward Bear Hughes, defensemen Martin Has and Benton Maass, and goaltenders Garin Bjorklund and Clay Stevenson.
Hughes, the Capitals’ fifth-round draft pick in 2020, proved himself a valuable asset for the Stingrays with 36 assists and 59 points this season. However, Washington no longer holds his exclusive signing rights. Stevenson, who joined the Capitals as a free agent in March 2022, seamlessly transitioned to pro hockey ECHL, ranking among the league leaders in various statistical categories, and showing he may be a potential call-up option for Washington in 2023-24.
Teuvo Teräväinen Will Play Game 1
Carolina Hurricanes forward Teuvo Teräväinen is set to return to the lineup in tonight’s Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final against the Florida Panthers, per TVA’s Renaud Lavoie. This is Teräväinen’s first game in nearly a month after breaking his hand in Carolina’s First Round win against the New York Islanders.
Hurricanes team reporter Walt Ruff said this morning Teräväinen was taking line rushes in practice alongside Jordan Staal and Martin Necas, bumping 23-year-old Jack Drury back down to a fourth-line role.
Teräväinen didn’t have the most productive season in 2022-23, but he’s still a very important part of a Hurricanes squad looking to advance to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2006. In last year’s playoffs, Teräväinen scored 11 points in 14 games.
He’d gone without a point in two games against the Islanders, but now with some time off and a bit of a restart, look for Teräväinen to help rejuvenate the offensive game of Necas, who’s near the middle of the pack in team scoring with six points in 11 games.
It’s a needed boost against a Panthers team with an extremely balanced attack, receiving consistent production from their top three lines. Carolina’s managed to do the same with some unlikely players, but the past consistency of Teräväinen is still a major fortification to the Hurricanes’ forward corps.
Latest On Jesper Bratt, Timo Meier
New Jersey Devils general manager Tom Fitzgerald has achieved a crucial step in a long rebuilding process: a return to relevancy and a promising postseason showing. Now, he has to keep them there.
Considering the Devils have 13 expiring contracts on their NHL roster (not including injured goalie Jonathan Bernier), this offseason isn’t just about staying the course for Fitzgerald and the Devils. The signings he makes this summer will largely dictate what the team’s future holds as their spending, and eventually, the salary cap, increases.
There are no priority items this offseason larger for Fitzgerald than the team’s most coveted restricted free agents: Jesper Bratt and Timo Meier. Speaking to reporters, including The Fourth Period’s James Nichols, at the Devils’ locker clean-out day yesterday, Fitzgerald offered updates on the status of Bratt’s and Meier’s pending extensions.
In regards to Bratt, Fitzgerald gave an expansive answer:
We paused the (extension) talks prior to the playoffs, which I think was the right thing to do. There was there’s definitely progression. For sure. There’s definitely a framework of a deal to be done long term if Jesper wants that. Jesper knows exactly what that framework looks like. I know Jesper wants to be a Devil long-term and so do we. He had a tremendous year. Nobody doubted he wouldn’t. He’s part of the fabric here, part of the core. We want to get this done. I don’t anticipate contentious negotiation. I think his agent knows where we’re at. So we’ll probably put the ball back in his court and we’ll touch base here soon. I haven’t yet. Like I said earlier, this Game 5 loss is still fresh.”
Coming off back-to-back 70-point seasons, contract talks surrounding the 24-year-old Bratt are much more positive than this time last season. He’s a restricted free agent with arbitration rights for the second straight summer, eventually signing a one-year, $5.45MM deal in August 2022 after an arbitration filing.
His next cap hit is likely to come in well north of that and could easily hover near the $8MM mark on a long-term deal, which both Fitzgerald and Bratt allude to as a possibility. Regardless of the final cap hit, it doesn’t appear the Devils and Bratt are likely to hit many snags in the road on their way toward an extension.
The vibes are different around a potential commitment for Meier, who wasn’t as effective as the team hoped after acquiring him late in the season from the San Jose Sharks. The intrigue is still there – it’s not often you have a free agent with three 30-goal seasons under his belt still under team control. But the 26-year-old will undoubtedly be looking for a hefty commitment, especially after posting near point-per-game numbers over the past two seasons on a struggling Sharks squad.
Fitzgerald said contract talks with Meier haven’t begun in earnest yet but plans to touch base with Meier’s agent, Claude Lemieux, about an extension after the team wraps up its pre-draft scouting meetings this week.
New Jersey will likely prioritize getting the framework for an extension finalized with Meier as soon as possible. If it comes to a worst-case scenario, Meier is due a qualifying offer of $10MM on a one-year contract, which would both dig into New Jersey’s cap space next season and walk him right to unrestricted free agency in 2024.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Latest On Anaheim’s Coaching Search
The Ducks have had a head coaching vacancy since the start of the offseason when it was revealed that Dallas Eakins wouldn’t be back after spending four years with the team. GM Pat Verbeek is known to be casting a wide net as he looks to make his first NHL head coaching hire but there haven’t been many names connected to them thus far. However, Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli reports (Twitter link) that Devils associate coach Andrew Brunette, Maple Leafs assistant Spencer Carbery, and Penguins assistant Mike Vellucci are under consideration for the spot.
Brunette is the only one of the three with head coach experience at the NHL level after being at the helm of the Panthers for most of the 2021-22 campaign. However, he wasn’t offered the full-time role (which instead went to Paul Maurice) and eventually landed on Lindy Ruff’s bench. It would have been understandable to think that Brunette was added with an eye on replacing Ruff but with the veteran working on an extension to stay with New Jersey, it’s possible that Brunette could be on the move. It would be a different situation for Brunette moving from a playoff team to one that’s squarely in a rebuild but the teams he has been with the last couple of years being strong ones offensively, that could be particularly appealing on a team with a lot of young talent up front.
Carbery has been viewed as a coach on the rise in recent years and after spending three years running the bench with AHL Hershey, he joined Toronto as an assistant in 2021. He has played an important role in coaching their power play, a group that has had considerable success lately, producing at a 26% clip this season, a small tick down from the 27.3% from the year before. Carbery is also known to be under consideration for the head coaching vacancy in Washington and if Toronto decides to make a change behind the bench following their exit against Florida, he’ll quite likely have a chance to get that role as well.
As for Vellucci, he has experience both behind the bench and in the front office having worked in various roles with Carolina for several years before spending a season as coach and GM with AHL Wilkes-Barre/Scranton in 2019-20 before joining Mike Sullivan’s staff as an assistant in 2020. Vellucci also has a long history at the major junior level, spending more than a decade as the coach and GM with OHL Plymouth. With the Ducks transitioning to a younger group, someone with plenty of experience coaching younger players could certainly be beneficial to Anaheim.
When Verbeek announced that Eakins wouldn’t be returning, he wouldn’t commit to any sort of timeline for when he’d hire his replacement but indicated he hoped he’d have his new bench boss in place by the draft. Considering the draft ends just two days before free agency opens up, it would make a lot of sense to have Eakins’ replacement in place before that time so Verbeek has roughly six more weeks to find Anaheim’s next head coach.
Kings Making Progress On Vladislav Gavrikov Contract
The Kings made a pair of additions just before the trade deadline this season, picking up goaltender Joonas Korpisalo and defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov in a trade with Columbus. While both players are set to have their current contracts expire at the end of June, it appears at least one of them could stick around beyond that point. Michael Russo and Eric Duhatschek of The Athletic report (subscription link) that there’s a belief that Los Angeles is closing in on an extension with Gavrikov.
The 27-year-old had a breakout year in 2021-22, picking up a career-best 33 points in 80 games while topping the century mark in shots on goal, hits, and blocks for the first time. Unfortunately for the Blue Jackets, Gavrikov wasn’t able to maintain that level of production this season, dipping to just three goals and seven helpers in 52 games prior to the trade despite averaging 22:20 per game, slightly over his average from last season.
However, Gavrikov’s performance improved considerably following the swap. He spent a lot of time on the second pairing and the slightly lesser role seemed to work well for him, at least offensively, as he collected three goals and six helpers in 20 regular season games with Los Angeles. He logged nearly 22 minutes per night for them in the playoffs in their opening-round exit to Edmonton.
Gavrikov is coming off what could fairly be termed as his bridge contract, even though it’s one that walks him straight to UFA eligibility. His cap hit over the last three seasons has been $2.8MM while his salary this year was $4.2MM. It stands to reason that his salary this season could serve as a starting point for negotiations, especially if they’re trying to convince him to forego testing the open market in July.
If the two sides are able to agree on a deal, it could be the beginning of an interesting offseason for Kings blueliners. With Brandt Clarke likely to be on the roster full-time next season after dominating with OHL Barrie following his reassignment after the World Juniors and Tobias Bjornfot now waiver-eligible, there’s likely to be a bit of a logjam. There are already five other rearguards signed for next season not including Gavrikov plus promising defenseman Jordan Spence also waiting in the wings after spending most of the year at AHL Ontario.
Cap space is going to be a bit of a premium for Los Angeles next season as they currently have nearly $76MM in commitments for 2023-24, per CapFriendly. With the Upper Limit likely to be at $83.5MM, spending more than half that money to keep Gavrikov would only tighten things further. However, if keeping him would allow them to move someone like Sean Walker or Sean Durzi, they’d be able to use the savings from that swap to help subsidize Gavrikov’s new deal.
Both Korpisalo and Gavrikov played big roles for the Kings down the stretch and it’s quite possible that they’re going to take a serious run at keeping both of them around. But it appears that Gavrikov is their priority and it might not be long now before he puts pen to paper on a new contract.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.