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Brady Tkachuk To Turn Pro And Sign With Senators

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With his self-imposed deadline of August 12th to make a decision on his plans for next season fast approaching, Senators first-rounder Brady Tkachuk has informed his college coach that he intends to turn pro and sign with Ottawa, reports ESPN’s John Buccigross (Twitter link).

Tkachuk is coming off of a strong freshman season at Boston University that saw him post 31 points (8-23-31) in just 40 games while also being among the top scorers at the World Juniors.  That helped him become the fourth overall pick back in June.

Many believe Tkachuk is physically ready to withstand the rigors of a full NHL season and with the expectation that the Senators are still likely to sell between now and the start of the year, there is a good chance that he’d be able to step in and play a regular role right away.

However, this decision doesn’t necessarily lock him into Ottawa’s lineup come October.  As he wasn’t drafted out of the CHL, he is eligible to play at the AHL level with their affiliate in Belleville.  His junior rights are held by OHL London and the Sens could opt to send him there as well if he doesn’t project to be a full-timer in the NHL.

If he does start out in Ottawa, he will be subject to the same games played thresholds as other junior-aged players are.  He could play nine games without burning the first year of his entry-level deal while he wouldn’t accrue a season towards unrestricted free agency until he hits the 40-game mark.

Ottawa Senators “Very Confident” In Progress Of Arena Development

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Ottawa Senators owner Eugene Melnyk met with city mayor Jim Watson and others today to discuss the development of LeBreton Flats as a new location for an NHL arena, and came out with renewed confidence in the project. Melnyk was clear that the Senators would be able to finance their portion of the project, which includes “residential towers, a Sensplex and abilities center and other amenities” according to Jonathan Willing of the Ottawa Citizen. Speaking to media following the meeting, Melnyk expressed his feelings on their progress:

I can speak from an Ottawa Senators perspective—we are fully capable of funding our portion of what we need to accomplish. I think that as a team effort here that everything required can get done. There are just some hurdles that have to be overcome, but we look at that as challenges as opposed to obstacles. With the mayor’s leadership here I have more confidence today than ever. I’m very confident this is going to go forward.

The Senators have had quite the year, dealing with nearly unending controversy and a lack of success on the ice. If the new arena project does move forward it can only help to secure the financial future of the team as they move closer to the downtown core. Currently looking at a season where their top three players are pending unrestricted free agents, and the team is not expected to compete for a playoff spot, there is a thirst for a rebuild in the Canadian capital.

Willing writes that the timeline to finalize a deal between RendezVouz group that is spearheading the development proposal and the National Capital Commission that currently manages the Flats still sits in 2019. If it does go through, it would represent a big win for the Senators organization and a huge step towards remaining in Ottawa long-term. Melnyk said as much today:

The one thing that is constant always is that we are here to stay in Ottawa for a very, very long time and we want to make sure the LeBreton project, if accomplished, is a success for many, many years for our children’s children and that’s the way we’re looking at it.

Chase Balisy Signs With Ottawa Senators

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The Ottawa Senators have dipped into the unrestricted free agent pool, signing Chase Balisy to a one-year two-way contract. The deal will pay $650K in the NHL and $135K in the AHL. Balisy became a Group VI UFA when he failed to play in 80 games with the Florida Panthers, instead given just eight contests in 2017-18 after several years in the minor leagues.

Originally selected by the Nashville Predators in 2011, Balisy never did sign with the organization after four solid years at Western Michigan University. Instead he played a year in the minor leagues before signing his entry-level deal with the Florida Panthers in 2015 and another one-year contract in 2017 after not getting a qualifying offer from the club. In four minor league seasons Balisy has proven himself to be a capable offensive player, but was held scoreless in his eight-game NHL stint with the Panthers. It’s unlikely he’ll be asked to make any impact on the NHL club in Ottawa, though he could be used as an injury replacement if necessary.

Instead, he’ll likely return to the minor leagues and try to give the Belleville Senators another experienced option up front. The AHL squad went 29-42-5 last season but have made wholesale changes to the coaching staff and much of the roster. Like any organization around the minor leagues, Belleville will try to bring about a culture of winning for their young players as they continue to develop future NHL talent. Veteran options like Balisy are a big part of that, and he should end up logging important minutes for the minor league squad.

Mark Stone Open To Discussing A Contract Extension In January

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While many have viewed the one-year, $7.35MM contract that Senators winger Mark Stone inked last week to make him eligible for unrestricted free agency next summer as a sign that he is likely entering the final season with his team, he told Postmedia’s Bruce Garrioch that he’s certainly open to discussing an extension when the window opens up in January:

Stone joins a notable list of notable Senators players that are entering the final year of their respective contracts.  That group includes defenseman Erik Karlsson, center Matt Duchene, and winger Ryan Dzingel (who is coming off of a 23-goal season).  With that in mind, there is going to be a narrow window for Ottawa to try to work something out with Stone as if they can’t come to terms on a long-term extension quickly in the new year, they will likely look to move him before the trade deadline.

Poll: Ottawa’s Impending Free Agents

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The Ottawa Senators are a team in trouble. The Senators finished with a 28-43-11 record last season for a total of 67 points, second-lowest in the NHL. The team also placed close to the bottom in both goals for and goals against, which combined for a the league’s second-worst goal differential of -70. Ottawa dealt with a public relations nightmare this summer surrounding Mike Hoffman and ended up having to deal the dependable scorer away for pennies on the dollar. They have thus far failed to add any difference-makers via trade or free agency this off-season as well. On top of that, owner Eugene Melnyk is reportedly hemorrhaging money and appears to have a singular focus of spending as little as possible this season. That task is made difficult by a roster that features overpaid, ineffective veterans such as Bobby Ryan, Marian Gaborik, and Mikkel Boedker and a 37-year-old goalie coming off the worst season of his career in Craig Anderson. The Senators are the popular pick to be the worst team in the NHL in 2018-19, but even that has no silver lining, as the Colorado Avalanche own Ottawa’s first-round pick, potentially the first overall pick in next year’s draft.

It almost seems like so much is going wrong in Ottawa that things can only get better. Unfortunately, that is simply not the case. Early in this off-season, the Senators made a contract extension offer to all-world defenseman Erik Karlsson, who is slated for free agency next summer. When Karlsson dismissed this initial offer, the team made it know that they were open to trading the face of the franchise. Just this week, the team was unable to come to terms on a long-term extension with top scorer Mark Stone, instead signing him to a one-year deal that will make him an unrestricted free agent after the season, where he will potentially be the biggest available name behind Karlsson. Perhaps the biggest bargain on the team, Ryan Dzingel’s team-friendly contract runs out after next season and the young forward will want a significant raise, even if that means it doesn’t come from the penny-pinching Senators. Finally, Matt Duchene, who Ottawa gave up substantial trade capital to acquire early last season – when their future looked much brighter – is also entering the final year of his contract and may not want to stick around any longer in Ottawa after the team fell apart soon after his acquisition.

With Hoffman and Derick Brassard already gone, the Senators face a very real possibility that they will begin the 2019-20 season without all of their top six scorers from the 2017-18 season (make that top seven if they succeed in trading Ryan). Between the value each would have on the open market prompting them to test the waters and the mounting pressure on the team to trade them during what will almost certainly be another season of struggles, the odds of each of them returning is slim. If the team was second-worst last year, did nothing to improve this off-season, and doesn’t have the pick that could otherwise land them a franchise cornerstone in next year’s draft, it is scary to think about how much worse things could get in Ottawa if all four of these prominent free agents depart.

This begs the question: how many of Karlsson, Stone, Dzingel, and Duchene will still be Senators this time next year?

How Many Impending Senators' Star Free Agents Will Return To Ottawa?
None 50.84% (426 votes)
One 26.73% (224 votes)
Two 13.37% (112 votes)
All Four 5.73% (48 votes)
Three 3.34% (28 votes)
Total Votes: 838

Showcase Notes: Tkachuk, Hughes, Formenton

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The World Junior Summer Showcase wrapped up yesterday with a pair of rivalry games, as the USA and Canada did battle before Sweden and Finland took to the ice in Kamloops. The USA-Canada game ended as chippy as contests between the two countries often do, with the final few seconds not even being played. At the final draw, 89 penalty minutes were handed out between several players when a melee broke out in the Canadian zone. In the middle of it was none other than Brady Tkachuk, who is already following in his brother’s footsteps as a player capable of getting under his opponent’s skin. He was given a 10 minute misconduct and a match penalty for intent to injure, though it wasn’t clear exactly what he did.

Tkachuk now has to decide whether to return to Boston University or sign with the Ottawa Senators and turn pro, a decision that was supposed to be at least partially based on his performance at this tournament if reports are to believed. Tkachuk can obviously compete physically with any player his age, but was held to just two assists in the tournament while recording several minor penalties throughout the tournament. It is quite clear that he’ll have an NHL career before long, but could still use some refinement in the offensive zone.

  • One of the real stories in the tournament was supposed to be the play of potential 2019 first-overall pick Jack Hughes, but while the 17-year old was quite good his brother may have stolen the show. Quinn Hughes, selected seventh-overall by the Vancouver Canucks, was all over the ice for Team USA and showed off his wizardry with the puck in the offensive zone. The elder Hughes is headed back for another year at the University of Michigan, where he should be considered a real threat for the Hobey Baker if his scoring numbers take another step forward. For those who are still worried about his size and physicality, it should be noted that both Hughes brothers were involved in the final scrum and each received roughing penalties and game misconducts.
  • While Hughes will have to wait for his chance at the NHL, one of the players from the Canadian squad might be ready to take the next step. Alex Formenton scored a brilliant goal against the Swedes earlier in the tournament when he used his blazing speed to drive wide, and head coach Tim Hunter believes he’s obviously “NHL caliber.” Formenton played one game for the Ottawa Senators at the beginning of last season and suited up twice in the AHL at the end of the year. While the London Knights are a great development option for him if he goes back to junior, the Senators might feel as though he can make an impact at the highest level right away.

Mark Stone, Ottawa Senators Avoid Arbitration

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With neither side really wanting to go through the arbitration process today in Toronto, Mark Stone and the Ottawa Senators have settled on a one-year contract. The deal will pay Stone $7.35MM this season, and carry him through to unrestricted free agency in the summer of 2019. The two sides cannot sign an extension until January. Our Brian La Rose projected this exact contract yesterday when he broke down the Stone arbitration case.

The 26-year old played just 58 games for the Senators last season, but was easily the team’s best forward registering 20 goals and 62 points. That point-per-game pace pushed Stone from a very good player to one of the league’s best, especially when combined with his trademark takeaway ability and solid defensive presence. Even with the limited number of games, he still earned Selke votes for the fourth consecutive year and led all Senators in takeaways.

For all the positive things Stone brings, a one-year contract will lead to immediate speculation about his future in Ottawa. The team is heading for a rebuild, and now all three of their best players are scheduled to become unrestricted free agents next summer. Stone, Erik Karlsson and Matt Duchene all have just one year remaining on their deals, making them prime trade candidates over the next few months. Even if things go better than expected during the first half of the 2018-19 season, the team still has to consider moving these big assets for whatever they can get, depending on whether they’re willing to sign a long-term extension. Though it’s unclear if Stone would even re-enter negotiations, the fact that the two sides couldn’t come to an agreement this summer only puts creates more pressure down the road.

The Senators will have a two-month window to sign Stone at the beginning of 2019 before facing the trade deadline. If he remains unsigned, you can bet there will be dozens of teams clamoring to get a piece of him as a playoff rental with a chance to re-sign him to a long-term deal. Evander Kane, Paul Stastny and others set the market this season, but Stone is a more effective offensive piece than either of them and could bring back a bigger package should his contributions on the ice continue this season. As one of only a few top-end options in Ottawa, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him receive more than 20 minutes a night once again.

Those first line minutes shouldn’t come as a surprise now that Stone carries such a huge salary. His new contract makes him the 24th-highest paid forward in the league for 2018-19, putting pressure on him to perform as the best player up front for Ottawa. It also means that a long-term extension would be incredibly pricey, something that the Senators may just not have the money for. Remember this was a restricted free agent year still, which usually comes in at a lower price than the player would be demanding on the UFA market. If Stone wanted an even bigger cap hit for seven or eight years, Ottawa might have to back out of negotiations purely from a financial standpoint.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Arbitration Breakdown: Mark Stone

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While the Senators have already gone through one arbitration hearing this week with defenseman Cody Ceci, they’re on the verge of needing to do so with winger Mark Stone as well as his hearing is set for Friday morning.  The pre-hearing filings were exchanged on Wednesday with Ottawa offering $5MM and Stone asking for $9MM.  This has the potential to be a record-setting award so let’s take a closer look at this case.

The Numbers

Over the past four seasons, the 26-year-old has been pretty consistent offensively.  He has scored at least 20 times in each of those years and has had between 54-64 points in those seasons as well.  That type of production lines up with a high-end second liner or quality top liner.

However, 2017-18’s numbers have to be looked at a little closer.  Stone posted 62 points (20-42-62) last year but did so in only 58 games.  In other words, he played at an 88-point pace which ranked 14th league-wide among qualifying players.  That would put him in the high-end front liner range which likely has played a big role in his asking price.

The Senators haven’t hesitated to use Stone in all situations.  He led the team in ice time by a forward by a sizable margin (while ranking 11th league-wide) and averaged more than three minutes per night on the power play with a couple of shorthanded shifts as well.

With that in mind, it’s going to be difficult for Ottawa to argue that Stone deserves to be paid like a second-line player when their own usage of him is considerably different not to mention his big jump in points per game last season.

Potential Comparables

Comparable contracts are restricted to those signed within restricted free agency. For this exercise, I’ve taken it a step further and restricted this list to deals inked with arbitration eligibility which takes post-ELC deals like Nathan MacKinnon, Mark Scheifele, and Vladimir Tarasenko off the table.

Jonathan Huberdeau (Florida) – Huberdeau signed his current deal that carries a $5.9MM cap hit (4.45 cap hit percentage) after a 59-point season and was viewed as the time as someone that could be a top line player but would be even better on the second line.  That seems to be what Ottawa is going for here so it wouldn’t be surprising if they’re citing this deal as a comparable although it seems fair to say that this comparable is going to be on the low end.

Ryan Johansen (Nashville) – Johansen inked an eight-year, $64MM deal (10.67 cap hit percentage) coming off a three-year bridge contract which is the same situation as Stone is currently in.  At that time, he had four seasons of 60 or more points under his belt so Ottawa could try to argue that Johansen’s track record offensively is better.  However, Johansen hasn’t gotten particularly close to the point-per-game mark that Stone passed last season either.

Ryan O’Reilly (St. Louis) – While Stone isn’t elite at the faceoff dot like O’Reilly ($7.5MM AAV, 10.5 cap hit percentage) is, the similarities are fairly strong otherwise.  At the time the deal was signed, O’Reilly was coming off seasons of 64 and 55 points and his production since then has ranged between 55-61 points which is right in Stone’s range as well.  On top of that, they’re both well-regarded as two-way forwards.

Blake Wheeler (Winnipeg) – While Wheeler’s contract ($5.6MM AAV, 8.71 cap hit percentage) is now viewed as a bargain, the fact he’s significantly outperformed the contract since he signed it back in 2013 doesn’t really matter much.  At the time of the deal, Wheeler only had one 60-point year under his belt (although he played at that pace in the lockout-shortened year as well).  His cap hit is close to Ottawa’s submission but once you factor in the increase in the salary cap since then, the value in today’s dollars is just shy of $7MM.

Projection

The awards thus far have been right down the middle of the filings and there’s a decent chance that will be the case here as well.  It may be a bit tough for Stone to get the 10% or higher that Johansen and O’Reilly got as he doesn’t play the premium position they do either.  It will also be difficult for the arbitrator to really assess the season Stone just had – is that a sign of things to come or the statistical outlier?  Given that he has been closer to a 0.8 point-per-game average for the better part of his career, I think the arbitrator may skew a little more conservatively here.

Could this award (if it gets that far) set the record for the biggest one ever, surpassing Shea Weber’s $7.5MM?  It could, but I don’t think it will.  The cap percentage for that deal was 11.66 which is higher than what Stone’s probably going to get.

That said, Stone has a shot at setting a new award record for a forward ($7MM for John LeClair in 2000).  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the award come in between the filings midpoint of $7MM and Weber’s record award.  I think if Stone had put up a second season of close to point-per-game production, an award closer to $8MM would have been a legitimate possibility.  Instead, a one-year, $7.35MM contract (9.25 cap hit percentage) feels like a reasonable projection, one that lines him up for unrestricted free agency next summer and a whole lot of trade speculation between now and then.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Franchise Reset In Ottawa Could Come Quickly

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The Ottawa Senators have had one of the worst years imaginable, going from overtime in Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, to a good bet for the bottom of the NHL standings in the upcoming season. During that time they used a big package of future assets to acquire Matt Duchene, had a public locker room problem that forced a clearance sale of Mike Hoffman, dealt with a legal scandal for one of their front office executives and couldn’t even win a draft lottery spot. That’s not even mentioning the potential trade of franchise defenseman and captain Erik Karlsson, which still may occur before the start of the season.

Even though there has been nothing but struggles for the Senators of late, a successful navigation of the next few seasons could set them up for a quick rebuild. The Senators currently only have one player, forward Bobby Ryan, signed for more than three seasons and will see at least eight roster players hit the unrestricted free agent market in 2019. That kind of financial freedom can really help a franchise, even one like Ottawa that doesn’t usually spend up to the salary cap and instead operates on an internal budget.

In a perfect world, the team would be able to re-sign Karlsson, Duchene and Mark Stone to multi-year contracts and supplement them with some young talent to compete right away. But it doesn’t seem like any of those things will be possible for the Senators, which might still leave them with a perfectly acceptable second option. Trading all three could immediately jump the Senators prospect pool to one of the best in the NHL, especially given their recent addition of Brady Tkachuk and Jacob Bernard-Docker. The fact that they don’t own their 2019 first-round pick hurts, but at this point is a sunk cost and has to be worked around.

There are other roster players who could still bring value back in trade, and given that almost all of them will hit UFA status in the next two seasons there may be a firesale coming before long. While that will cause a painful season (or two), there’s no reason to believe that the Senators can’t put it behind them in short order. They have just over $17MM committed to roster players in 2020-21, and a good chunk of that is Ryan who could potentially be strapped to Karlsson on his way out. Even if they’re only hitting the salary cap floor, by that point they’d still need to be adding somewhere around $45MM.

It’s hard to believe that a team experiencing such lows could be close to bouncing back, but we’ve seen it multiple times over the last few seasons. The Toronto Maple Leafs went from dead last to the playoffs in just one season, but it was clearing their future salaries that allowed them to have so much success so quickly. The team traded away hefty contracts like Phil Kessel and Dion Phaneuf for whatever they could get, and built around a young core instead. Auston Matthews was obviously the spark that set the Maple Leafs competitive fire, but they were already headed in the right direction.

The Colorado Avalanche just experienced something similar, ironically moving Duchene to Ottawa in order to give their younger players more opportunity. Colorado jumped from a historically bad 2016-17 back to the playoffs last season, riding a young core of Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen all season. Before signing Ian Cole, Philipp Grubauer and Matt Calvert this summer, the Avalanche too had a very bare future salary book. Only MacKinnon, Erik Johnson and Gabriel Landeskog were signed through 2020-21, giving them the flexibility to add when they were ready.

Ottawa already decided not to sign Kyle Turris and Derick Brassard to extensions, instead trading them away during the season. They also dealt Phaneuf’s contract away, though had to take Marian Gaborik back to do it. There’s more work to be done to build up the prospect system to a point where it could really compete in just a few years, but there is definitely potential to do so.

Negotiation Notes: Arbitration Hearings, Nylander, Islanders

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Two more players sat down for arbitration hearings today, as Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that neither the Ottawa Senators and Cody Ceci nor the Dallas Stars and Gemel Smith were able to come to terms beforehand. Both situations bear watching over the next 48 hours, as they must agree to a deal in that window or else get stuck with the arbitrator’s award. Ceci’s case is similar to that of the Winnipeg Jets’ Jacob Trouba, which went through to a decision earlier this off-season. Both Ceci and Trouba filed at a number that shares few reasonable comparisons – Trouba at $7MM and Ceci at $6MM. While Trouba’s side likely tried to use several recent cases of offensive-minded defenseman who settled for $5.5MM and then argue that he is the superior defensive player, Ceci does not have the comparable offense to make as strong a case. As such, he is unlikely to get the $5.5MM award that Trouba landed, the midpoint of his case. Instead, look for Ceci to get somewhere in the $4-4.5MM range. Smith’s is a much different scenario, similar to another previously decided case this summer, that of Calgary Flames defenseman Brett Kulak. In both cases, the team offered only a minimum, two-way contract while the player filed at a higher value for a one-way deal –  Kulak at $1.15MM and Smith at $900K. While Kulak was able to land a $850K one-way deal from the arbitrator, he also played in 71 games in the platform year, while Smith only suited up for 46. Smith faces a far tougher argument that he is a bona fide NHL player at this point in his career.

  • Restricted free agent William Nylander continues to negotiate with the Toronto Maple Leafs, but the explosive young forward is not interested in a short-term bridge deal. Sportsnet’s Luke Fox suggests that Nylander is only talking about a long-term deal right now. While the Leafs might be trying to play it safe, with both Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner also in need of extensions next summer (along with the majority of their roster), Nylander doesn’t seem willing to take a bridge deal only to watch his fellow budding stars sign long-term contracts instead. Nylander may have hit restricted free agency earlier than Matthews and Marner, but the trio all have similar games played and points since Nylander only played in 22 games with Toronto in his first season before the other two joined the squad. All three have been remarkably consistent early on and, given their similarities, it is hard to blame Nylander for wanting a long-term deal when he knows that Matthews and Marner are likely to get them.
  • While it makes sense that the New York Islanders have focused on adding forwards and a new goaltender this season, after losing superstar center John Tavares and starting goalie Jaroslav Halak to free agency, Newsday’s Andrew Gross thinks it’s strange that the team has not added to the blue line at all. The team re-signed Thomas Hickey and Ryan Pulock, but have added no one else while losing Calvin de Haan and opting not to bring back Brandon Davidson and Dennis Seidenberg. Gross notes that recently re-signed center Brock Nelson, an impending free agent, could be used as a trade chip to add to a blue line that struggled greatly last season. There are certainly teams out there with a plethora of defensemen who could use Nelson up front. The Carolina Hurricanes, Boston Bruins, and Winnipeg Jets are clubs that fit the bill, but Nelson would not be nearly enough to land a Justin Faulk, Torey Krug, or Jacob Trouba and an expendable piece that he might fetch, like a Trevor van Riemsdyk, Adam McQuaid, or Tucker Poolman might not be enough to fix the Islanders blue line. New York may have to up the ante beyond Nelson to land a difference-maker on the back end.

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