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Erik Karlsson Trade Talks Picking Up

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After the last few weeks have brought little in terms of trade speculation around the NHL, Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet has sparked the fire again surrounding Erik Karlsson of the Ottawa Senators. Friedman tweets that trade talks involving the superstar defenseman have picked up recently, with Western Conference destinations—potentially including the Vancouver Canucks—as the most likely. West teams like the Vegas Golden Knights and Dallas Stars had previously been linked to Karlsson, though it’s unclear if they’re included in the recent discussions.

For Vancouver the acquisition of Karlsson would seem unlikely, given that the team is still rebuilding and there is no guarantee that the Senators defenseman would be open to an extension. Iain MacIntyre of Sportsnet tweets that Quinn Hughes, Brock Boeser, Elias Pettersson are all completely off the table for the Canucks, making it hard to imagine a package strong enough to beat any other contender for Karlsson’s services. Interestingly MacIntyre does not mention top prospect Olli Juolevi, though that doesn’t necessarily mean he would be available.

There are obviously dozens of other teams in the NHL who would be interested in Karlsson, though many of them won’t be able to afford an extension that could push towards Drew Doughty’s eight-year $88MM contract. Ottawa would likely receive the biggest return from a team that can immediately extend Karlsson, but that could also dramatically reduce their trading partners. The Golden Knights have the prospect capital and cap space to fit a star like Karlsson in, and the Colorado Avalanche have a trade chip that no one else in the league can match. That’s the Senators own first-round pick this season, acquired in the Matt Duchene trade from last season. After Ottawa chose to keep their 2018 pick and select Brady Tkachuk, they had to give up the 2019 pick and a potential opportunity at top prospect Jack Hughes. With the Senators expected to struggle this season—especially if Karlsson departs—the Avalanche could easily be holding a top-three pick in their pocket. For what it’s worth, Adrian Dater of BSN Denver isn’t hearing any connection with the Avalanche and Karlsson.

The Tampa Bay Lightning were the other team strongly linked to Karlsson in the past, and it’s unclear if they still pose a threat to acquire the defenseman. That would require Tampa Bay moving out other salary, but would make them an absolute powerhouse in the Eastern Conference and the favorite for a Stanley Cup Finals appearance. All of the other teams in the Atlantic Division will be hoping that the Senators’ captain heads out west and signs a long-term contract to stay out of their way.

Randy Lee Resigns As Assistant General Manager Of Ottawa Senators

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The Ottawa Senators dramatic offseason continues, as Randy Lee has now resigned his post as Assistant General Manager and General Manager of the Belleville Senators. Lee was involved in a legal matter earlier this summer during a trip to Buffalo for the NHL Scouting Combine, though Bruce Garrioch of Postmedia reports that his hearing has now been postponed to September 13th.

Lee, a member of the Senators organization for nearly two decades, was suspended indefinitely by the team on June 15th following his arrest in Buffalo for harassment in late May. The team will begin an immediate search for his replacement, though they have already been operating without his input for more than a month. At the time of the suspension, the team had this to say about the matter:

As our hockey club’s initial statement made clear, our Hockey Team – and our organization as a whole – will always hold our leaders, coaching staff, players and employees to the highest standards of behaviour.

Harassment in any form is unacceptable, whether it occurs inside or outside the work place. As a result, and with all the care and caution required in such cases, we have spent the past two weeks listening carefully to, and consulting with our community, our fan base and our partners to understand their expectations on the matter.

Lee issued his own statement on his resignation, indicating that he believes the club needed to find a replacement for him while his legal proceedings are ongoing:

My suspension has given me more time to spend with my loved ones than ever before. For the past 23 years, my family has taken a back seat to my career. My focus is now on putting them first. At the same time, I have to think about my obligations to the hockey team. They need an Assistant General Manager who can focus completely on the coming season. Until this matter is behind me, however, I’m not in a position to do that. For this reason–in consultation with the Ottawa Senators and my family–I have chose to resign as Assistant General Manager of the Ottawa Senators and General Manager of the Belleville Senators.

It’s been a long offseason for Ottawa, with Lee’s arrest not the only public controversy the team has gone through. From locker room issues including a feud between Mike Hoffman and Erik Karlsson that led to a trade of the former, to the three key players who are now scheduled for unrestricted free agency in 2019 without any extensions in sight, there has been little to get excited about for Senators fans. It’s not often that a team goes from a goal away from the Stanley Cup Finals to a 30th-place finish in one season, but the Senators did that in 2017-18. Many are expecting them to struggle again in 2018-19, but at least one distraction can potentially be put behind them now that Lee is no longer connected to the organization.

Minor Transactions: 08/20/18

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The hockey world chugs along as we wait for preseason games to start in a few weeks. We’ll keep track of the minor moves right here:

  • Joseph LaBate has signed an AHL contract with the Belleville Senators, leaving the Vancouver Canucks organization after three years. LaBate was eligible for Group VI unrestricted free agency this summer after failing to crack the Canucks lineup for more than 13 games, and will now try his hand with the AHL affiliate of the Ottawa Senators. The 6’5″ winger is a tough player to line up against, and will give the Senators a little more size for the 2017-18 season.
  • Brett Murray has left Penn State University to return to junior hockey according to Patrick Burns of the Daily Collegian. Murray, a Buffalo Sabres fourth-round draft pick, has experience in the USHL but could also go to the OHL where the Oshawa Generals still hold his rights. The big winger scored just six points in 21 games for Penn State last season, but will take his talents back to the junior ranks where he had found more success in the past.
  • Colton Hargrove, a Boston Bruins draft pick, has signed an AHL contract with the Texas Stars for 2018-19. In three seasons with the Providence Bruins Hargrove registered 87 total points, including a solid season in 2017-18 with 33 in just 52 games. The 26-year old became an unrestricted free agent in 2017 when the Bruins decided not to extend him a qualifying offer.

Atlantic Notes: Senators’ Youth, Walker, Howard, Nelson

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The Ottawa Senators seem to have little go right over the last year or so, whether it was the unhappiness of their star defenseman Erik Karlsson to the Matt Duchene trade in which the team traded away their No. 1 overall pick for next season to Colorado. With the team shipping off players left and right, that pick could be a costly one for the team.

However, the Ottawa Sun’s Ken Warren writes that who the Senators need to look at the success of the New Jersey Devils last season had when they opted to add a struggling team with youth. Just a season ago, the Devils had a 28-40-14 season and just 70 points. However, New Jersey brought in an infusion of youth, including Nico Hischier, Jesper Bratt, Will Butcher, as well as second-year players like Miles Wood and Pavel Zacha. That group altered the makeup of the struggling franchise and turned last season into a 44-29-9 season for 97 points, an increase of 27 points on the year. The team even qualified for the playoffs.

The Senators, who are actually loaded with quality prospects within their system, could get a similar infusion from their prospects. That possibility might start with 2018 first-rounder Brady Tkachuk, who opted to turn pro last week and has a chance to walk right into the Senators lineup. The team has other young players who are ready for full seasons this year, including Colin White, Logan Brown, Thomas Chabot, Filip Chlapik and Drake Batherson. The team also has last year’s second-round pick Alex Formenton, who made the Senators squad out of training camp last year, who could also make the jump this year. Some success from some of those kids could make people forget a little about some of the franchise’s struggles.

  • Former Toronto Maple Leafs enforcer Kurt Walker passed away Friday night at the age of 64 after a brief illness, according to the Toronto Sun’s Lance Hornby. Walker, who might have been better known after his short NHL career, was an advocate for retired NHL players. His efforts nearly a decade ago helped retired players and opened doors for affordable health care, concussion research on NHL retired players and stem-cell research. Walker played three seasons in the NHL, all for the Maple Leafs, playing in 71 games, tallying four goals, five assists and 152 penalty minutes.
  • Mlive’s Ansar Khan writes that the Detroit Red Wings need a solid year out of 34-year-old goaltender Jimmy Howard, who has one year remaining on his contract. Howard started the 2017-18 season strong, but struggled in the second-half of the season, finishing the year with a 2.85 GAA and a .910 save percentage in 60 games. The team may have to lighten his workload now that the team added Jonathan Bernier, but if Howard will have to have a better year to earn another contract with the team. Khan writes the team might want to give him a two-year extension as they lack goalie prospects in their system.
  • The Buffalo News’ Mike Harrington writes that Buffalo Sabres defensive prospect Casey Nelson has a good chance at breaking camp with the Sabres this year because he now requires Buffalo to pass him through waivers to send him to the AHL. Nelson, has played 55 games for Buffalo over the past three years and showed some promise last year, putting up three goals and eight assists in 37 games. However, because the team could conceivably lose him if they attempt to pass him through waivers, they may be more likely to hold onto him and send other prospects like Brendan Guhle to the AHL since he doesn’t require waivers.

Retained Salary For 2018-19

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Among the ways teams can increase the value of potential trade candidates is by retaining a portion of their salary. These moves are often used on star players who may have declined slightly and are no longer deemed worthy of their big cap hits, or at the deadline in order to fit in as many contracts as possible for the playoff stretch. Any team can retain up to 50% of a player’s salary for the remainder of the contract, though a single player can only be involved in two of these transactions per contract.

Teams meanwhile are limited to three retained salary transactions on the books at any one time, and they cannot in aggregate equal more than 15% of the cap ceiling. That means, for this season a team can retain up to $11,925,000 in salary given the $79.5MM cap ceiling. Some teams have already started in on that number given the previous retained salary transactions that they are still paying off. Below is a list of all the active contracts involved in transactions like this:

Arizona Coyotes

Mike Smith – Retained $1,416,667 per season through 2018-19

Boston Bruins

Matt Beleskey – Retained $1,900,000 per season through 2019-20

Carolina Hurricanes

Marcus Kruger – Retained $308,333 per season through 2018-19

Florida Panthers

Jason Demers – Retained $562,500 per season through 2020-21

Ottawa Senators

Dion Phaneuf – Retained $1,750,000 per season through 2020-21

Toronto Maple Leafs

Phil Kessel – Retained $1,200,000 per season through 2021-22

Vancouver Canucks

Roberto Luongo – Retained $800,000 per season through 2021-22

Vegas Golden Knights

Derick Brassard – Retained $2,000,000 per season through 2018-19

While these transactions are hardly crippling the above teams, they are something to remember when the trade deadline rolls around and clubs are trying to swap contracts. Teams like Toronto and Vancouver who have retained salary for another four years might not want to get into a similar situation and lock up two of their three possible options for the future.

The other question surrounding retained salary transactions will be how they affect the upcoming CBA negotiations, after teams like Vegas have acted as a sort of middle man. Brassard was never really part of the Golden Knights, only coming there on his way from Ottawa to Pittsburgh in order to reduce his salary for the Penguins. Though Vegas received compensation, it is not how the rule was intended to be used.

Arizona Coyotes Lack Flexibility Due To Roster Limits

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One of the CBA rules that rarely gets the spotlight of media attention, yet affects NHL organizations every year is that of the Standard Player Contract (SPC) limit. Each team is only allowed to have 50 NHL contracts on the books at any one time, including two-way contracts and players on injured or long-term injured reserve. The Arizona Coyotes currently find themselves at that limit, with 50 players already signed. That’s why the recent Marian Hossa trade included Andrew Campbell and Jordan Maletta going back to the Blackhawks, despite neither really being very valuable to an NHL team. The Coyotes couldn’t take on all three of the contracts for Hossa, Vinnie Hinostroza and Jordan Oesterle without matching with the same outgoing number.

The Coyotes do have a pair of players who likely will not count towards the 50-contract limit this season, as Barrett Hayton and Pierre-Olivier Joseph are both young enough—18 or 19 years old—to be removed from the SPC list when they are sent back to junior hockey. That of course assumes that they won’t make the Coyotes out of camp, something that isn’t necessarily guaranteed but should be expected. Even with those two added slots, the Coyotes will have to be wary of their contract totals all season long. Staying right at the limit is dangerous given that you may run into injury trouble and want to sign a veteran out of free agency or promote a player on an AHL contract. It also limits what you can do in terms of signing players out of the college ranks.

Today a list of sixteen players became unrestricted free agents after failing to reach an entry-level contract with the team that drafted them. One of those players, Jared Fiegl, couldn’t have been signed because of the Coyotes current situation even if they had wanted to. While Fiegl was just a seventh-round pick and likely wouldn’t have earned an NHL contract anyway—he has since signed with the Orlando Solar Bears of the ECHL—there are always players who deserve contracts at the end of the college season, both drafted and undrafted.

In Arizona’s system for instance, there are Ty Emberson and Cameron Crotty who will both be playing in the NCAA this season. Each a third-round pick, there is always a chance of a breakout season and the desire to turn pro in early spring. If there are no contract slots available, the Coyotes won’t be able to bring them into their system on an entry-level deal right away and run the risk of them returning to school for another season. The undrafted players pose an even bigger risk, as a team without a contract slot would be at a severe disadvantage in free agent negotiations.

Though the Coyotes are currently the only team right at the limit, there are several others who are flirting with it. The Anaheim Ducks and Vegas Golden Knights are already at 48 contracts and each have a restricted free agent left to sign in Nick Ritchie and Shea Theodore respectively. The Ottawa Senators are also at 48, and two players that could potentially come off the list in Brady Tkachuk and Alex Formenton both might not be playing in junior this season. Tkachuk could potentially go to the AHL to work with the Binghamton Senators if he doesn’t make the NHL, while Formenton already has an NHL game under his belt and might jump right to Ottawa this season.

Living on the edge doesn’t cripple a team, but it does reduce their flexibility when working out trades or negotiating with free agents. Teams like the Minnesota Wild and Toronto Maple Leafs dealt with that issue at times last year, and many others could this time around. Though it rarely gets much attention it is definitely something to keep an eye on as training camp comes around next month, and injuries start to pile up.

Silence Surrounds Erik Karlsson, Ottawa Senators

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At one point this summer the biggest story on almost a daily basis was the future of Ottawa Senators captain Erik Karlsson, but since trade talks seemed to have broken down there have been almost no reports to update his status. Brent Wallace of TSN says it has been “eerily quiet” in Ottawa regarding Karlsson, and doesn’t believe that will change until he addresses the media at the start of training camp. Karlsson is still under contract with the Senators, but after the team reportedly offered a long-term extension in early July there has been very little talk about any potential negotiations between the two sides.

We’ve seen a situation extremely similar to this play out recently, ultimately ending in the Senators themselves acquiring Matt Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche just a few weeks into the 2017-18 season. Duchene basically avoided speaking to the media entirely during training camp, not willing to feed into the speculation around whether he was unhappy in Colorado and had requested a trade. A similar thing might be happening with Karlsson, who has given no indication that he would hold out from camp to demand a trade, or in fact has even asked for a trade at all. The Senators obviously will have to continue contemplating that option if the two sides aren’t progressing in extension negotiations, given their expected struggles this season and Karlsson’s immense value as a trade asset.

Senators training camp opens in just under a month’s time, at which point we should start to get at least some answers from the team on whether Karlsson is expected to start the year on the roster. While the hockey world has seemingly taken a bit of a vacation in early August, things will begin heating up quickly as the calendar turns and the start of the season creeps closer. Not only will teams be able to evaluate their roster by seeing them first hand on the ice, but injuries to key players could always create a potential trade candidate where one didn’t appear before.

Karlsson remains the biggest fish on the trade market, and actually saw another one of his free agent contemporaries scratch their name off the UFA list for next summer. When Ryan Ellis inked his eight-year, $50MM contract extension today it marked the fourth big-name defenseman scheduled for 2019 free agency to sign a long-term contract. Drew Doughty, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Ryan McDonagh have already been locked in, meaning Karlsson could find himself as the unchallenged king of the unrestricted free agent market—at least among defensemen— on July 1st.

Ottawa Senators Officially Sign Brady Tkachuk

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Though the news had already broken over the last few days, the Ottawa Senators today officially announced the three-year entry-level contract for top pick Brady Tkachuk. The fourth-overall selection in the 2018 draft, Tkachuk has turned down an opportunity to return to Boston University this season and instead will sign his first professional contract. Senators GM Pierre Dorion released a glowing statement about his newest prospect:

Brady Tkachuk exemplifies all the attributes around which we want to improve the Ottawa Senators. He is a young man of exceptional character. We know how much he agonized over leaving Boston University, and we are encouraged by the degree of accountability and commitment this shows from him. Through tenacity, combativeness and work ethic, he also exemplifies leadership skills that we know will benefit the team now and well into the future. Most of all, Brady has shown us through his maturity that he is coachable, committed to teamwork, and determined to help us strengthen our team chemistry. For all these reasons, he is an exciting young player whose growth and development we are eager to support.

Though Tkachuk has signed and is now ineligible to return to BU, it doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be playing with Ottawa this season. He could now be sent to the London Knights of the OHL—where his brother played prior to jumping to the NHL—or the AHL Belleville Senators to work on his game at the minor league level. Though he is 6’3″ already and can dominate physically against players his age, jumping to the professional ranks will be an entirely new challenge and could lead to some real struggles. That’s the decision the Senators will have to make, though they can basically wait as long as they want. After ten games in the NHL the first year of Tkachuk’s entry-level deal will be burned, but the team could keep him up to 40 before moving him a year closer to unrestricted free agency. If they believe he can help the NHL team right away and isn’t overwhelmed by the grind of a professional schedule, perhaps we’ll see him in Ottawa all season.

Interestingly though the Knights have just brought back Mark Hunter into the day-to-day fold as General Manager, and the franchise comes with a long history of convincing high profile talent to spend at least one year in the OHL. Matthew Tkachuk was a star forward coming through the US National Team Development program playing with the likes of Auston Matthews and Jack Roslovic and had ties to Notre Dame (where he was once committed) and both Boston University and Boston College before deciding to head to the OHL for one season. That season, where he scored 107 points and was a big part of a Memorial Cup title, jumped him up to sixth overall in the 2016 draft and prepared him for life with the Calgary Flames. More so than any other CHL team the Knights bring with them a professional-type atmosphere and churn out NHL talent on a regular basis.

Morning Notes: 2019 Draft, Schedule, Karlsson

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The 2019 NHL Entry Draft is ten months away and there will be plenty of speculation on who should be selected in the first round. Already prospect gurus are beginning to release their early lists, which almost all have Jack Hughes as the easy first-overall selection. Craig Button of TSN released his early top five at the end of the Hlinka-Gretzky tournament, and started with Russian forward Vasili Podkolzin in the fifth overall spot. Podkolzin had a great U18 tournament with 11 points in five games, and is starting to put together all the talent and skill that people have been waiting for.

Scott Wheeler of The Athletic (subscription required) released a more in-depth list for 2019, breaking down more than two dozen players who could find themselves selected in the first round next June. Wheeler goes with the consensus in spot number two and lists Kaapo Kakko as the easy selection after Hughes is off the board. The Finnish forward is almost pro-ready and looks like he’ll be a dominant puck-protecting forward for a long time.

  • For any readers in the United States, NBC has released their national broadcast schedule for the 2018-19 season which will include a record 109 games. Wednesday Night Hockey will now feature regular double headers and include a variety of teams from around the league. The first such occasion will kick off the season on Wednesday, October 3rd when the Washington Capitals welcome in the Boston Bruins and the Anaheim Ducks travel to San Jose to face the Sharks. Kevin Allen of USA Today provides the whole broadcast schedule.
  • Count at least one member of the Ottawa Senators that doesn’t want to see Erik Karlsson traded before the season begins. Thomas Chabot, a young defensemen trying to round out his game at the NHL level, spoke out about his hope to see Karlsson in uniform when the season begins. There has been very little smoke surrounding Karlsson of late, and if he does begin the year with the Senators there might be a good chance that Chabot is the player lined up beside him on the blue line. Though different players, Chabot told media at his charity golf tournament that he is trying to model his game after the Senators captain and doesn’t think anyone could replace Karlsson if they did move him.

Eastern Notes: Carlo, Tkachuk, Dobson, Chaput

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The Boston Bruins dealt with numerous injuries over the course of the 2017-18 season, but that didn’t stop the team from getting into the second round of the Stanley Cup playoffs last season. One injury that truly crippled the team was the loss of defenseman Brandon Carlo right at the end of the season with a broken fibula. While the team is solid on defense, the presence of the 6-foot-5 blueliner has been critical to their team.

Boston Globe’s Kevin Paul Dupont writes that Carlo injury is fully healed as x-rays were clean and the 21-year-old has already been skating for more than a month. Not an offensive defenseman, Carlo has had trouble adjusting to the NHL physical game, having spent his rookie campaign next to Zdeno Chara and then being teamed up as the defensive presence to offensive sparkplug Torey Krug. However, Carlo said he’s added close to 10 pounds of muscle to his frame this offseason and is ready to take the bulk of another full campaign in Boston.

“I think last year was good for me in an aspect,” Carlo said, “to learn so much about myself and my game. Coming into this third year, I have really high expectations for myself. I expect to be back on track with helping out in every aspect that I can. I think overall I have to come in with a little bit of a chip on my shoulder and have a little more confidence in myself and my overall game.”

  • While there are many people who feel that winger Brady Tkachuk, who announced his intention of going pro Saturday, might be better served playing with the OHL London Knights or the AHL’s Belleville Senators next year to continue his development, Bruce Garrioch of The Ottawa Sun writes that Tkachuk actually has as good a shot of anyone on the roster to make the NHL squad out of training camp. The team isn’t deep at the left wing position, which includes players such as Ryan Dzingel, Mikkel Boedker, Max McCormick, Magnus Paajarvi, Tom Pyatt and Zack Smith. Not exactly top of the line. Considering that Smith is likely to move to center next year and Pyatt could move to the right side, if needed, there is plenty of space for Tkachuk if he impresses in training camp.
  • Historically, players picked at No. 12 in the NHL Draft usually don’t end up with their NHL time right away in their first season, but that could be a possibility when it comes to New York Islanders 2018 first-round pick Noah Dobson. The 18-year-old prospect showed off his skills with a dominant performance at the World Junior Showcase for Canada by posting five goals in three games. The Athletic’s Arthur Staple (subscription required) writes another impressive showing at training camp in front of coach Barry Trotz could force the team’s hand to keep him, considering the team’s lack of depth on defense.
  • While the Montreal Canadiens didn’t make too many waves this offseason, the team did sign several smaller names, including Michael Peca, Xavier Ouellet, Kenny Agostino and Michael Chaput. The 26-year-old Chaput is an interesting case as he’s played 135 NHL games already in his career, but with the exception of a 68-games season back in 2016-17, the center has spent most of his career in the AHL. Now, with many openings potentially available in Montreal, Chaput feels he’s got a great shot a full-time role with Montreal this year, according to NHL.com’s Matt Cudzinowski. “My mindset is to try and make this team. I want to play for the Canadiens. That’s my main goal. That’s what I’m working towards,” said Chaput.

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