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Offseason Keys: Nashville Predators

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With the postseason down to just two teams, most squads are now well into their offseason planning.  What storylines lie ahead around the league in what is shaping up to be a likely busy NHL offseason?  Next up in our Offseason Keys series is a look at the Nashville Predators.

Despite a disappointing loss to Winnipeg in the postseason a year ago, optimism was high in Nashville.  They opted to keep the team from a season earlier largely intact and added some help around the trade deadline in Mikael Granlund, Wayne Simmonds, and Brian Boyle.  But instead of taking that next step forward in the playoffs, they took a step back and lost to Dallas in the opening round.  After not making many changes last summer, it’s expected that GM David Poile will be looking to shake things up this offseason.  What will he need to accomplish?

Add Scoring Help

Scoring goals hasn’t been a huge concern for Nashville in recent years but they did take a step back in that regard in 2018-19 as they slipped to 19th in the league during the regular season.  They struggled even more in the playoffs, averaging just two goals per game against the Stars which didn’t leave them with much margin for error.

Ryan Johansen, their highest-paid forward, had just 14 goals.  Kyle Turris, who is tied for the second-highest cap hit among Nashville forwards, had an abysmal season that saw him score just seven times in 55 games and he was even scratched briefly.  That’s not a lot of goal production for $14MM although to be fair, Johansen did at least lead them in assists.

Their late-season acquisitions didn’t help much offensively either.  Granlund scored just once in 16 regular season games while Simmonds matched that output in 17 contests.  Boyle was a little better with five tallies in 26 outings but failed to record a single assist.

Beyond Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson, there aren’t a lot of particularly dangerous scoring threats on the Predators.  If they’re going to get back into contention in the Central Division, that’s something that they will need to address this summer.

Josi Extension

Last summer, getting Ryan Ellis re-signed was Poile’s top priority.  It took a little bit of time but a new deal was ultimately done as Ellis inked an eight-year, $50MM contract extension that was viewed as a bargain by many.  This offseason, Poile will once again be looking to lock up a blueliner to a long-term extension.  This time, it’s Roman Josi that’s in need of a new deal.

The 29-year-old has been the top offensive threat from Nashville’s back end for several years now and has shown no signs of slowing down.  He has consistently logged heavy minutes, averaging over 25 minutes per game over the past six seasons.  Josi has been a top pairing defender for quite some time but he hasn’t been close to being paid like one as his current contract which runs through 2019-20 carries just a $4MM AAV.

That’s going to change on this next contract which could very well double his current cap hit, even if he takes the hometown discount as many expect.  We’ve seen the price of elite defenders jump considerably in recent years and it’s Josi’s time to cash in on that.  The Preds are eligible to get a new deal done on July 1st and given Poile’s ability to re-sign his core players early, it’s certainly reasonable to think that the two sides will reach an agreement fairly quickly.

Utilize Defensive Depth On The Trade Market

Defense has been the strength of Nashville for a long time.  Their group of defenders are not only strong in their own end but they have also been among the most productive units offensively for several years.  However, the time may now be right to break up their big four.

For starters, their back end is starting to get expensive.  Per CapFriendly, the cost of their blueline is set to exceed $26MM for next season.  Assuming Josi signs a new deal, that price tag could approach (or even exceed) $30MM a year later.  Spending that much on defense will make it difficult to fill their vacancies up front.

Of their top four, veteran P.K. Subban seems to be the speculative favorite to be dealt (with Ellis’ new deal just beginning, Josi likely to sign a new contract, and Mattias Ekholm being on a team-friendly contract).  His $9MM AAV is pricey and would be the impetus for moving him but many teams are on the lookout for impact blueliners, especially those that play the right side.  It also helps that Dante Fabbro has top-four upside and while he may be hard-pressed to step into that role right away, he could take on a larger role than he had down the stretch and in the postseason.

Impact defensive depth is great to have and Nashville’s back end is the envy of many teams in the league.  But at some point, teams have had success turning that depth into help up front.  Poile did it by turning Seth Jones into Johansen several years ago.  The time may be right for him to try a move like that again.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Nashville Predators Re-Sign Jarred Tinordi

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Wednesday: The team has officially announced the contract.

Tuesday: The Nashville Predators, home to arguably the deepest blue line in the NHL, nevertheless value having a wealth of options on defense and have agreed to terms to retain one of their many defensemen. TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reports that the team has re-signed AHL captain Jarred Tinordi to a two-year extension. It is a two-way deal for Tinordi that will pay him the minimum $700K at the NHL level but a comfortable $300K in the AHL.

Tinordi, 27, is coming off a career year in the minor leagues with the Predators’ AHL affiliate, the Milwaukee Admirals. Tinordi paced the Admirals defensemen with 75 games played and 85 penalty minutes and a dependable stay-at-home defender and physical force. The former first-round pick also set a career high offensively with eight goals and 22 points on the year. While many will only ever see Tinordi as a first-round bust – the 22nd overall pick by the Montreal Canadiens in 2010, Tinordi has six points in 53 NHL games – he has slowly but surely grown into a reliable depth defender. At 6’6″ and 230 lbs., Tinordi has always been a dominating presence, but his hockey IQ has caught up with his physical stature and he has become a more composed player on the ice and a leader in the dressing room for Milwaukee. Although he has not appeared at the top level since a brief stint with the Arizona Coyotes three years ago, it’s safe to say he has improved in that time.

With Tinordi signed, Nashville now has their top ten blue line options locked up through next season. Even if he resumes his strong play next season, Tinordi will very likely never see any NHL action. The Predators have ten defensemen on one-way contracts next year: top-four mainstays Roman Josi, P.K. Subban, Ryan Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm, reliable bottom pair Yannick Weber and Matt Irwin, veteran Dan Hamhuis, and rookie Dante Fabbro. Experienced AHLer Matt Donovan, who led all Admirals defenders in scoring last season, also acted as the team’s first man up on the back end and returns for the second of his own two-year, two-way deal. Barring a trade, Tinordi will likely be asked to again lead the Predators’ young prospects in Milwaukee and to be an emergency depth option, as Nashville is simply loaded on defense.

Western Notes: Tippett, Josi, Beaulieu, Simek

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The Edmonton Oilers and new general manager Ken Holland haven’t announced a new coach and while rumors have suggested that the team has settled on Dave Tippett as the team’s new head coach, nothing has been announced.

Postmedia’s Kurt Leavins reiterates that Tippett to Edmonton is a “done deal,” but the timing of the announcement has been the issue. The deal still has to get onto paper and with both the NHL Draft Combine and the Stanley Cup Finals, there is little time to get the announcement out there that the team has a new head coach. Regardless, the scribe writes that Tippett’s appointment will come in the next few days.

  • For a second year in a row, the Nashville Predators top priority will be to sign one of their star defensemen to a extension. The team locked up Ryan Ellis to an eight-year, $50MM deal last summer and must do something similar with Roman Josi, who is eligible to sign an extension on July 1. Josi, however, has made it clear he wants to stay in Nashville. However, the Predators will have to pay up as The Athletic’s Adam Vingan (subscription required) writes that they will likely have to give him the biggest contract in team history, which could overtake Ryan Johansen’s $8MM AAV.
  • The Winnipeg Jets have a number of big contracts and potential trades to deal with this offseason, but there are also smaller issues along their roster as well. The team needs to keep their defensive depth, one of the strengths of their roster in recent years, yet they only have five defensemen under contract. The Winnipeg Sun’s Ken Wiebe writes that the Jets have indicated that they would like to bring back restricted free agent Nathan Beaulieu, who the team acquired at the trade deadline for a sixth-round pick, as insurance in case they lose Jacob Trouba to a trade. However, in order to offer Beaulieu a qualifying offer, they would have to add 10 percent to his $2.4MM he made last year, which the team is unlikely to do for a bottom-pairing defenseman. The more logical approach, which Winnipeg did last year with Joseph Morrow, would be to not qualify him and then try to sign him for less as an unrestricted free agent.
  • The San Jose Sharks got some good news as The Athletic’s David Lombardi (subscription required) writes that defenseman Radim Simek, who has been out since March 12th after having his leg crushed in a collision with Winnipeg’s Andrew Copp and having surgery to repair a torn ACL, MCL and meniscus, has already returned to the ice and is skating again. “The guys who are taking care of me say that my rehab is going really fast, that it’s really unusual to only be two months removed from surgery but back on the ice, skating however I want,” Simek said.  Simek, who signed out of the Czech Republic in 2017, played one year in the AHL and made the NHL roster this season, playing in 41 games and making a significant difference before getting injured and hopes to be back for next season.

Jonne Tammela, Filip Pyrochta Clear Unconditional Waivers

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Saturday: Both Pyrochta and Tammela have cleared waivers, per CapFriendly (Twitter links), paving the way for them to be released.

Friday: Two players find themselves on unconditional waivers today according to Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports. The Nashville Predators have placed Filip Pyrochta and the Tampa Bay Lightning have placed Jonne Tammela on waivers, indicating that contract terminations are coming for both players.

Pyrochta, 22, was signed by the Predators in 2018 out of the Czech Republic but failed to even contribute much even with their AHL affiliate the Milwaukee Admirals this season. Splitting his time between Milwaukee and Atlanta Gladiators of the ECHL, Pyrochta recorded 13 points in 51 games and failed to earn a call-up to the NHL. He will likely be headed back overseas to continue what was a solid start to his professional career back home.

Tammela, 21, meanwhile was actually a fourth-round pick of the Lightning in 2015, but hasn’t played a ton even in the minor leagues. Suiting up just 51 times for the Syracuse Crunch over parts of three seasons, he found almost no offensive success and recorded just 11 points. He did however play quite well for the Orlando Solar Bears this season, but spending the year in the ECHL likely isn’t what the Finnish forward was hoping for. He too had a strong start to his career in Europe, and could return there to continue his development.

Both players had just a single year remaining on their entry-level contracts, but will sacrifice those deals in order to get some more freedom to play where they have a bigger role. The terminations will also free up a contract slot for both clubs.

Nashville Predators Ink New ECHL Affiliation

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The Nashville Predators have entered into an affiliation agreement with the Florida Everblades of the ECHL. The partnership is only for the 2019-20 season, but will give the Predators another minor league affiliate to send their prospects for development purposes. Everblades GM Craig Brush released a statement on the agreement:

We are thrilled to have the Nashville Predators as our new NHL affiliate. Nashville’s President of Hockey Operations and General Manager David Poile has done a remarkable job developing an expansion franchise into one of the most prominent teams in the NHL. We are looking forward to becoming an integral part of the development of players for the Predators and Milwaukee Admirals.

The Everblades were previously the ECHL affiliate of the Carolina Hurricanes, given they shared at least partial ownership with the NHL franchise in the form of Peter Karmanos. The Predators meanwhile last had an ECHL affiliation in 2017 but ended the partnership with the Norfolk Admirals in mid-November. Before that, they had worked with the Cincinnati Cyclones for a decade.

Florida will represent a new opportunity for the Predators to send their raw or unpolished prospects, so that they can get large amounts of ice time without the pressure of the higher leagues. The ECHL is most notable for the goaltending alumni it has produced, which includes names like Jordan Binnington, James Reimer, Aaron Dell, Collin Delia and MacKenzie Blackwood. Former Nashville goaltender Dan Ellis even spent some time in the ECHL before making his NHL debut.

The Everblades finished second in the entire ECHL during this season with a 50-16-6 record but were unfortunately eliminated in the Kelly Cup semi-final by the Newfoundland Growlers.

Maple Leafs Hire Paul McFarland As Assistant Coach

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One assistant out, one assistant in for Mike Babcock and his staff. Sources including both Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman and TSN’s Bob McKenzie reported earlier that the Toronto Maple Leafs were expected to announce that Paul McFarland has been hired by team, and the team did just that not long after. This news comes soon after the official announcement that D.J. Smith has been hired away from the team to become the new head coach of the Ottawa Senators.

While these two hires come in close proximity, they may not actually be connected at all. Smith worked with defensemen and the penalty kill units for Toronto, while McFarland ran the power play for the Florida Panthers last season. In fact, McFarland played for the Windsor Spitfires when Smith was an assistant and later served as an assistant himself under Smith with the Oshawa Generals to begin his coaching career. McFarland was likely set to re-join his mentor with the Maple Leafs before Smith made the decision to depart for Ottawa. The real driving force behind McFarland’s hire is the anticipated departure of Jim Hiller, who ran Toronto’s power play this season. Hiller was given permission to seek other opportunities and as of earlier this month was linked to the Nashville Predators. Regardless of where he ends up, he was not expected back in Toronto and certainly won’t be now that McFarland is in the fold.

McFarland, 33, is more than just the beneficiary of opportunity in this situation, though. The former head coach of the OHL’s Kingston Frontenacs is considered a rising star in the coaching ranks and his dismissal from the Panthers was tied more to his connection to former head coach Bob Boughner than his performance. Actually, Florida ranked second in the NHL this season on the power play at 26.8% and received a greater proportion of their goals man-up than any other team in the league. McFarland did an excellent job, but seemingly didn’t fit into the plans of new head coach Joel Quenneville. Florida’s loss is Toronto’s gain, as the Ontario native returns home and brings his power play expertise with him to a roster chock full of potent offensive talent.

Even with McFarland’s addition, there will still be speculation that the departures of Smith and Hiller will leave the Maple Leafs in need of another coach. The most obvious option would be current AHL head coach Sheldon Keefe, a popular name in coaching circles who is currently guiding the Toronto Marlies through another deep playoff run. Toronto does not want to let Keefe leave the organization, which could mean they choose to promote him to Babcock’s staff, where he can take over some of the duties left behind in Smith’s absence.

Nashville Predators To Pursue Matt Duchene

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All that talk about not making too much of Matt Duchene’s property in Nashville? Forget about it, apparently. Pierre LeBrun writes for The Athletic that the Predators are expected to enter the bidding for the best center on the free agent market. The team would have to shed some salary to do so, but that appears to be a hurdle they are willing to take on to add a top offensive talent.

Not only does Duchene have connections to the city – as well as a love for country music – but Nashville GM David Poile tried to acquire Duchene from the Colorado Avalanche last year (he settled to be third team in on the doomed deal with the Ottawa Senators) and is likely to take another run in free agency. The only problem with the free agency route is that no salary will move out the other way. Duchene is expected to command a maximum-term contract worth upwards of $9MM per year. Currently, the Predators have only $7MM in available cap space with 21 players signed. That doesn’t even include anticipated extensions for RFA forwards Colton Sissons and Rocco Grimaldi, and Nashville must also consider the raise that No. 1 defenseman Roman Josi is owed on his next contract. It would be impossible for the Predators to sign Duchene without making other significant moves.

Fortunately, as LeBrun notes, Poile has built a roster that is completely free of any trade restrictions. Any Nashville player could be on the move this summer, whether that’s dynamic, but expensive defenseman P.K. Subban, disappointing recent extension Kyle Turris, or underwhelming deadline addition Mikael Granlund. The Predators have long been searching for a surefire second line center and Duchene behind Ryan Johansen would give Nashville an elite one-two punch. If it costs them any of the aforementioned players, or even a combination of depth players like Craig Smith, Nick Bonino, or Calle Jarnkrok, it would likely be worth it. The real question is whether Poile can get the requisite deals done, or at least in place, by July 1st so that he can approach talks with Duchene with the confidence of knowing he’s not putting his team in an impossible cap position.

It is still a stretch to consider Nashville the likely landing spot for Duchene. It would take considerable effort and roster re-organization to make the star center a fit for the Predators, whereas many other teams in need of a top pivot also have the cap space to do so easily. Yet, if Nashville truly has interest in making it work, combined with Duchene’s own interests in the city, there is certainly a potential fit that could shift the balance of power in the Western Conference.

Snapshots: Rathgeb, Novak, Korencik

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After Yannick Rathgeb cleared waivers and had his contract terminated by the New York Islanders last week, it was only a matter of time before he we was back in Europe. Unsurprisingly, Rathgeb has opted to return home to his native Switzerland, signing in the NLA. EHC Biel-Bienne has announced a three-year contract with the 23-year-old defenseman, who they hope can get back to his dominant ways. Prior to joining the Islanders last season, Rathgeb had spent the three years prior with the NLA’s HC Fribourg-Gotteron, where he amassed 89 points over 133 games. While he was unable to perform at that same level in North America – nine points in 32 games with the AHL’s Bridgeport Sound Tigers – there’s no reason to think Rathgeb won’t again be a dynamic defender in the NLA. The smooth-skating blue liner joins a Biel-Bienne team that is a perennial contender and includes former NHLers like Jonas Hiller, Damien Brunner, and Anssi Salmela. 

  • Tommy Novak would undoubtedly rather be under contract with the Nashville Predators, but he’s content to sign a prove-it deal with the AHL’s Milwaukee Admirals instead. The Admirals announced today that the University of Minnesota product had signed a one-year contract to remain with the team after wrapping up his season in Milwaukee on a tryout deal. Novak was a third-round pick of the Predators back in 2015 and spent the last four seasons as a starter for the Gophers. However, while Novak has flashed the skill and smarts to excel at the pro level, he was inconsistent in college and needs time to round out his game in the minors. Committing to the Predators’ affiliate is a good way to stay under the umbrella of the organization and work toward a potential entry-level contract down the road.
  • The University of Massachusetts – Lowell landed a nice commitment today in Slovakian standout Marek Korencik. Hockey Portal reports that Korencik will make the jump from the Sweden to the NCAA next season, joining the River Hawks. The 19-year-old defenseman had a breakout season, recording 20 points for Lulea HF in the junior-level SuperElit while also contributing three points in five games for Team Slovakia at the World Juniors. His efforts even earned Korencik an appearance with Lulea’s SHL team and he likely would have seen more action at the top pro level next year had he stayed in Sweden. However, the move to the college game is likely a better developmental move for the 6’3″, 200-lb. rearguard and the commitment to North American hockey could endear him to scouts in his final go-round in the NHL Draft. Even if Korencik is again passed over, he still represents a great addition for Lowell, who will look to get back to the NCAA Tournament next season behind some improved defensive play.

West Notes: Kubalik, Heat, Predators

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If you’ve been watching the IIHF World Championship closely, you may have noticed a young winger lighting the lamp for the Czech Republic whose name has never been uttered in an NHL game. 23-year old Dominik Kubalik has nine points in six games for the Czechs, and is tied for the team lead in shots with 19. The young forward’s NHL rights were traded in January to the Chicago Blackhawks, who according to Igor Eronko of Sport-Express have now agreed to terms with Kubalik.

Kubalik played with Blackhawks forward Dominik Kahun in the OHL several years ago, but returned home after two seasons in junior. Selected in the seventh round by the Los Angeles Kings, the talented winger put up 57 points in 50 games in the Swiss NLA last season and could be a potential NHL option as soon as 2019-20 for the Blackhawks. The will of course need to get him under contract, but perhaps they are close to doing just that after his excellent tournament.

  • The Stockton Heat have signed Mason Morelli to an AHL contract for 2019-20, getting another impressive young player to agree to a minor league deal. Morelli recorded 34 points in 36 games as a senior with the University of Nebraska-Omaha, and then jumped right into the AHL with three goals and four points in nine games down the stretch. The 23-year old was undrafted but will try to take the next step in his development for the Heat and earn himself an NHL contract down the road.
  • The Nashville Predators are dealing with a disappointing exit from the playoffs this season and know they have work to do in order to get themselves back to legitimate Stanley Cup contenders. GM David Poile spoke with Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) about his priorities this offseason, and secondary scoring came up as a big need. Outside of the top line of Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson, the Predators didn’t have a single forward crack the 40-point threshold this season while deadline additions like Wayne Simmonds (3 points in 17 games) and Mikael Granlund (5 points in 16 games) never seemed to find their footing. Kyle Turris, who was extended immediately upon his arrival in Nashville during the 2017-18 season, also experienced one of his worst seasons as a professional, recording just 23 points in 55 games. Nashville will be a team to watch in the free agent and trade market over the next few months as they try to find an answer to those secondary scoring woes.

Snapshots: Ottawa, Nashville, Competition Committee

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The Ottawa Senators interviewed Rick Bowness for their vacant coaching position today according to Chris Stevenson of The Athletic, who notes that the number of candidates is now up to six. Bowness coached the Senators for parts of four seasons between 1992-96, and has been on NHL benches for decades. He spent this season with the Dallas Stars as an assistant for Jim Montgomery, his eighth NHL organization.

Stevenson also tweets that there might be one more candidate to still interview. The Senators have plenty of questions surrounding the direction of the franchise and bringing in an experienced head coach would at least show that they can still attract some talent behind the bench. It’s unclear what it would mean for Marc Crawford, who served as interim head coach after the team removed Guy Boucher during the season.

  • The Nashville Predators won’t be going anywhere for a while. The organization that runs Bridgestone Arena and the Metro Nashville Sports Authority have announced a proposed 30-year lease to keep them in the same place. Nashville has become one of the most successful expansion stories in the NHL given their recent playoff success and fan engagement, and will now have even more stability moving forward.
  • Renaud Lavoie of TVA Sports reports that the next competition committee meeting is scheduled for June 11 in Toronto, one that will certainly have lots to discuss from the playoffs. The hockey world was in an uproar again today after a missed hand pass call ended last night’s San Jose-St. Louis game prematurely. NHL Deputy Commissioner Colin Campbell was on Sportsnet radio today and admitted that the on-ice officials made the wrong call not blowing it dead after Timo Meier shoveled the puck ahead to Gustav Nyquist. Expanded review rules could be discussed at the upcoming meeting among other things.

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