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Predators’ Arvidsson Could Be Nashville’s Best Trade Chip

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While there has been speculation that the Nashville Predators will be sellers this year with another disappointing season as the team stands at 10-14, sixth in the Central Division, many experts are pointing fingers at  Filip Forsberg, who has just one more year remaining after this one. The 26-year-old forward is one of the few bright spots this year with 10 goals and 24 points in 24 games and there are many questions regarding his asking price (potentially in the $9MM AAV range) and interest in remaining on a team ready to begin a full rebuild. However, there is also speculation that the Predators asking price for Forsberg is incredibly high, making it less likely they will deal him when the trade deadline rolls around on April 12.

On the other hand, The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta writes that a more likely candidate to be moved will be forward Viktor Arvidsson. The 27-year-old is in the fourth year of a seven-year, $29.75MM deal and for a three year period (from 2016-17 through the 2018-19 seasons) averaged more than 30 goals per season. However, Arvidsson’s play like much of his team, has dropped in the last two years. He scored just 15 goals last season and currently has just three goals and 12 points in 24 games so far.

Regardless, it makes sense that a possible revival in Arvidsson’s offense could easily happen on a contender. Add in that fact that almost everyone in Nashville is struggling would suggest that he can turn his game around. Throw in that Arvidsson makes a reasonable $4.25MM per year and is locked up for another three years, giving teams some security could make him an attractive commodity for many playoff contenders.

Of course Nashville has plenty of other candidates it wouldn’t mind moving, including pending UFA’s Mikael Granlund and Erik Haula. It might even consider discussing some of their top defensemen. The team also wouldn’t minding ridding themselves of centers Matt Duchene or Ryan Johansen, but both have contracts that might prove difficult to move.

Predators Place Matt Duchene On Injured Reserve

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Things continue to go from bad to worse in the injury front for the Predators as the team announced (Twitter link) that Matt Duchene has been placed on injured reserve with a lower-body injury in advance of their game today against Florida.  The center is expected to miss the next three-to-five weeks.

As has been the case for many of Nashville’s players this season, it hasn’t been a good year so far for the 30-year-old.  Duchene has just three goals and five assists in 23 games which is hardly the type of production they’re expecting from a player that’s tied for the highest cap hit on the team at $8MM (along with fellow underachieving center Ryan Johansen).

Nonetheless, Duchene’s absence adds to their quickly-growing list of impact players out of the lineup; he now joins defenseman Ryan Ellis, goalie Juuse Saros, and Luke Kunin as regulars that are out while Luca Sbisa has been out since the season-opener.  For a team that isn’t the deepest, it’s a tough spot to fill but in the meantime, Erik Haula – who looks like a possible trade candidate over the next few weeks – should be in line for a bigger role at some point although Mikael Granlund (another candidate to be moved) will move down the middle for now.

COVID Protocol Related Absences: 03/04/21

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Each day, the NHL will publicly release the list of players that are unavailable to their respective teams due to being in COVID-19 Protocol. Here is today’s updated list:

Boston – Charlie Coyle
Philadelphia – Joel Farabee*
San Jose – Tomas Hertl

As a reminder, inclusion on this list does not mean that a player has tested positive for Coronavirus or even that they have been confirmed as a close contact to another positive person. Included in the NHL’s list of possible reasons for someone being on the list is are the following:

(1) an initial positive test which remains unconfirmed until confirmatory testing is completed pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (2) mandated isolation for symptomatic individuals pursuant to the Positive Test Protocol; (3) required quarantine as a high-risk close contact in accordance with the Positive Test Protocol; (4) isolation based on a confirmed positive test result and/or; (5) quarantine for travel or other reasons as outlined in the COVID-19 Protocol

Players removed today: Ryan Johansen, Nashville Predators; Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins.

While Penguins superstar Crosby, as well as Pittsburgh assistant coach Todd Reirden, are a welcome subtraction from the CRPA list, it is one step forward and one step back as the league continues to get agonizingly close to a blank list. The Philadelphia Flyers are back on COVID watch, as Farabee makes his first appearance of the season less than a week after many of his teammates were finally removed. Boston Bruins forward Coyle, a late addition on Wednesday night, also does not seem to be a fluke, as he was not at practice this morning and remains on today’s list.

UPDATE: Nashville’s late report showed that that they too are no longer carrying any protocol players. Johansen has been activated from the CPRA list, making this a net positive day in the league’s battle against COVID.

*denotes new addition

Juuse Saros Day-To-Day With Upper-Body Injury

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The Predators aren’t getting much good fortune on the injury front.  Just a day after losing a pair of core players to injury and Ryan Johansen to the CPRA list, Nashville is now without one of their goaltenders.  The team announced (Twitter link) that Juuse Saros is day-to-day with an upper-body injury that was sustained in yesterday’s game in a collision with Nino Niederreiter, one that netted the winger a fine.  Saros earned the starting role last season but has struggled this year, posting a .895 SV%, the lowest of his career.  Veteran Pekka Rinne has been the better goalie statistically this year and will hold down the fort while Saros is out while Kasimir Kaskisuo will likely be recalled from the taxi squad on Thursday.

Snapshots: Maple Leafs, Granlund, DeAngelo, Draft

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The Toronto Maple Leafs are the current kings of the NHL, leading the league standings and by a decent margin. In a rare season in which the Leafs don’t have to go through the Tampa Bay Lightning and more importantly the dreaded Boston Bruins early in the playoffs, Toronto is understandably excited about their prospects and willing to load up before the deadline to give themselves their best shot at a title. TSN’s Darren Dreger reports that the team’s current focus is on bolstering their forward corps. He states that the goal is to add a middle-six forward prior to the trade deadline and, if possible, one that could line up at center on the third line or shift to wing and play higher in the lineup. One potential fit that continues to be linked to Toronto is Nashville Predators forward Mikael Granlund, if you can call him “middle-six”. On a struggling Predators team, Granlund has been one of the few highlights, leading all Nashville forwards in ice time, blocked shots, and Corsi For and second only to Filip Forsberg in scoring. Dreger believes that Granlund, an impending free agent, will absolutely be available as the Predators seem poised to begin a fire sale of sorts and he could be the ideal pick-up for Toronto as a luxury depth addition – a current top-line forward moving into a middle-six role. Of course, given Granlund’s strong play there will be other suitors and Toronto will certainly take a look at additional options should a Granlund deal not prove to be viable.

  • Trade talks have quieted down on New York Rangers defenseman Anthony DeAngelo, as it seems that teams do not want to make the financial commitment this year and next to the polarizing defenseman despite his obvious ability. Yet, DeAngelo wants to get back on the ice. He was told that his time with the Rangers was over and, per TSN’s Frank Seravalli, that extends to the AHL’s Hartford Wolf Pack as well. New York has informed DeAngelo that he will not be assigned to their affiliate; however, they are willing to loan him out to another AHL team. Seravalli reports that DeAngelo and his representation are currently in the process of trying to find a spot for him to play out the rest of this season in the minors. In the big picture, the fact that it has come to this means that a trade elsewhere seems highly unlikely. Expect DeAngelo to be bought out this summer and take a short-term “show me” deal elsewhere.
  • Even as the Canadian junior leagues continue to work towards a full return to play, there are concerns about the 2021 NHL Draft and the pressure on teams due to the lack of complete information on eligible prospects. While European leagues, American junior leagues, and the NCAA have all had some semblance of a full season, the same cannot be said for Canada, the largest producer of NHL talent. A number of teams have expressed support for postponing the draft until later this year or even next year and a number of option have been proposed. However, Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman stated on a recent radio appearance that this change is easier said than done. Due to all of the language pertaining to draft eligibility and rights, all collectively bargained, it will be difficult to postpone the draft, even if it is in the best interests of the teams and many prospects. Friedman notes that the NHLPA presented the league with a number of issues that would need to be addressed before the draft could be delayed and Friedman hears that that there simply may not be enough fight on the league side to figure out the many solutions. Dreger reports that, one way or another, answers are needed soon and there could be a meeting as early as Thursday to discuss all issues and options.

Nashville Predators Issue Injury Updates

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The Nashville Predators won’t have some key players in the lineup for the next while. Ryan Ellis has been placed on injured reserve with an upper-body injury and will be out for the next four to six weeks. Luke Kunin will join him on IR with a lower-body injury and is out for two to four weeks. Ryan Johansen, who only made it back from IR a week ago himself, is now in the league’s COVID Protocol. The team has recalled Tanner Jeannot, Mathieu Olivier, Eeli Tolvanen, and Alexandre Carrier from the taxi squad.

Ellis, 30, carries a heavy load for the Predators every night, averaging nearly 25 minutes a game this season. He has just nine points in 21 games—a slight step down from the incredible pace he set last season with 38 in 49—but incredibly, that actually ties him for third on the team. Nashville has received almost no offensive contribution from half their lineup, with Filip Forsberg the only forward who has generated points on a regular basis. Losing Ellis means losing one of the team’s best players at both ends of the rink.

Kunin certainly can’t claim to be one of the team’s best, as his early tenure in Nashville has been one of disappointment. After posting 15 goals and 31 points in 63 games last season for the Minnesota Wild, he has just five points in 17 games for the Predators and has seen his minutes vary wildly. Overall, his contribution hasn’t been what the team expected when they dealt Nick Bonino and a pair of draft picks for him last fall. The fact that he’ll now miss at least two weeks in a shortened season certainly won’t help the team squeeze out any excess value.

Johansen of course has been an even bigger disappointment, if only because of what he costs the Predators against the cap. The $8MM center hasn’t scored a goal this season and has just five points through 14 games, though his possession metrics have been strong when he’s in the lineup. The fact that Johansen hasn’t broken the 15-goal mark since getting to Nashville is a big reason why the team’s offense has never seemed quite up to snuff, given that he had 59 goals in the two seasons before being acquired. It’s not clear at all how long he will be on the COVID Protocol list, but that zero will remain in the goal column for now.

The Predators have won their last two games but still sit at 10-11-0 on the year and now have to deal with the absence of Ellis for at least a month. Rumors had already begun to swirl about the fact that they may be sellers at the deadline and this news certainly won’t put an end to them. The team is set to face the Carolina Hurricanes tonight before starting a two-game series against the division-leading Florida Panthers on Thursday evening.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Bruins Claim Jarred Tinordi Off Waivers From Predators

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The Bruins have added some depth to their back end as Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports (Twitter link) that they’ve claimed defenseman Jarred Tinordi off waivers from Nashville.

The 29-year-old has played in seven games this season with the Predators, logging a respectable 16:34 per night of ice time.  However, he was pushed out of his spot by Ben Harpur and while Nashville thought they’d be able to sneak him onto the taxi squad considering he has cleared waivers four other times in his career, clearly that wasn’t the case.

Tinordi was a first-round pick of Montreal (22nd overall) back in 2010 but never was able to carve out a regular role for himself and was eventually traded to Arizona in 2016 as part of the move that saw John Scott get traded after being voted in as an All-Star starter.  He played seven games with the Coyotes that season before spending three full seasons in the minors.  However, injuries forced Nashville to recall Tinordi last year and he did well enough to play in 28 games with them (plus four more in the bubble) and see early action this season.

With Boston, Tinordi provides some extra insurance on the left side of their back end with Matt Grzelcyk and Jeremy Lauzon both on injured reserve at an affordable price.  He’s in the second and final season of his contract that carries a league-minimum salary of $700K in the NHL and $300K in the minors although he will have to go through waivers again if the Bruins try to send him down once those injured players return.

Stefan Noesen Clears Waivers

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Saturday: While Tinordi was claimed by Boston, Noesen cleared waivers, Friedman reports.  Kevin Kurz of The Athletic adds that Noesen has been sent to the taxi squad for the time being although he is likely to see some time in the AHL at some point to get some game action.

Friday: According to Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet, Stefan Noesen of the San Jose Sharks and Jarred Tinordi of the Nashville Predators have been placed on waivers today.

Noesen, 28, was actually claimed off waivers by the Sharks last season, but re-signed to a one-year, $925K contract after impressing down the stretch. That hasn’t been the case this time around, as Noesen has zero points in five games on the season and is basically out of the rotation. By waiving him, the veteran forward can be placed on the taxi squad or sent to the minor leagues.

Tinordi meanwhile has cleared waivers many times in the past, but keeps receiving more opportunities with the Predators. The 29-year-old, 6’6″ defenseman has five points in 35 games over the past two seasons. He has been replaced of late by another hulking defenseman, 26-year-old Ben Harpur who has played in each of the last three games. Tinordi could end up on the taxi squad, or perhaps return to the AHL where he played 32 games last season.

Poll: NHL’s “Thanksgiving Trend” Revisited

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Fans of the NHL are sure to be familiar with the deeper meaning that American Thanksgiving holds each season. With unrelenting consistency, the NHL’s standings on the final Thursday of November have had great predictive ability when compared to the final regular season standings. In fact, over the past seven years the Thanksgiving standings have been about 75% accurate at forecasting eventual playoff teams, predicting 12 of 16 spots on average. Even though American Thanksgiving only rolls around less than two months into the season, three out of four teams in a playoff spot at that time will have retained their postseason berth when the season ends.

The 2019-20 season of course did not have a standard postseason, but if it had then the Thanksgiving trend would have proved even more prophetic in a shortened campaign. Last year, in which teams were limited to between 68 and 71 games apiece prior to the early termination of the regular season, the Thanksgiving standings would have predicted 13 of 16 playoff teams in the standard format. Of the three teams that would have slid out of the postseason, the Florida Panthers trailed the Toronto Maple Leafs by .014 points percentage in the Atlantic Division and the Winnipeg Jets missed out by a measly .001 points percentage behind the Calgary Flames as the final Western Conference wild card. The Thanksgiving standings were that close to predicting 15 of 16 playoff teams in the shortened season, with the unexpected slow start for the Vegas Golden Knights and hot start for the Arizona Coyotes being the other unsurprising course correction.

But how does this trend impact a season that didn’t even begin until well after American Thanksgiving? Based on total games played by Thanksgiving over the past few seasons, Thanksgiving represents about the 30% progress through the NHL season. In the current 56-game season, that comes out to about the 17-game mark. Although postponements and rescheduling have created a wide discrepancy in games played among teams this year, the league as a whole passed that 17-game average on Saturday: Happy Thanksgiving. Admittedly, the 2020-21 campaign does have a different playoff model as well, one that is somewhat stricter than the last few years without the fallback of a wildcard spot for a team on the fifth-place fringe in their division. Yet, it is still a 16-team postseason and the Thanksgiving trend should hold. Using points percentage to rank the standings (the stat may end up determining playoff position for a second consecutive season anyhow) and adjusting for the season’s makeshift divisions, here is the current “Thanksgiving” outlook:

North Division                                                             East Division

Toronto Maple Leafs (.789)                                    Boston Bruins (.733)
Montreal Canadiens (.625)                                     Philadelphia Flyers (.679)
Winnipeg Jets (.618)                                                 Washington Capitals (.594)
Edmonton Oilers (.600)                                          Pittsburgh Penguins (.594)____
Calgary Flames (.472)                                                        New Jersey Devils (.583)
Vancouver Canucks (.405)                                                New York Islanders (.559)
Ottawa Senators (.237)                                                      New York Rangers (.469)
                                                                                                Buffalo Sabres (.429)

West Division                                                                Central Division

Vegas Golden Knights (.700)                                   Carolina Hurricanes (.781)
Colorado Avalanche (.679)                                       Florida Panthers (.750)
St. Louis Blues (.611)                                                  Tampa Bay Lightning (.700)
Minnesota Wild (.571)                                                Dallas Stars (.583)                    
Los Angeles Kings (.531)                                                    Chicago Blackhawks (.579)
Arizona Coyotes (.500)                                                       Columbus Blue Jackets (.526)
San Jose Sharks (.500)                                                       Nashville Predators (.412)
Anaheim Ducks (.417)                                                         Detroit Red Wings (.325)

Now this begs the question, especially seeing how accurate the Thanksgiving standings were in last year’s shortened season but also accounting for the many disruptions for a number of teams early this season, who is the trend currently overlooking? Which teams currently outside the playoff picture, if any, do you think will make the postseason when all is said and done later this season? Use the comments section below as well to discuss which teams may fall out of the postseason and whether you feel the Thanksgiving trend will apply this season.

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Taxi Squad Shuffle: 02/21/21

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As the NHL prepares for another day at Lake Tahoe – one that hopes to run smoothly after Saturday’s debacle – there are also three other games on the Sunday slate. Roster transactions continue to come at a torrid pace this season and today should be no different with a number of teams in action. Keep up with all of the moves right here:

Central Division

  • The Detroit Red Wings have returned a trio of players to the taxi squad. The team announced that veteran defensemen Alex Biega and the recently-waived Danny DeKeyser, as well as rookie forward Mathias Brome, have all been reassigned. After back-to-back games, Detroit is off until Tuesday.
  • Matiss Kivlenieks is on his way back to Columbus after a brief stint in the minors. The Blue Jackets announced that the goaltender has been recalled from the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters to join the taxi squad. While the team may give Kivlenieks spot starts in Cleveland from time to time to keep him fresh, he looks to be locked in to that No. 3 taxi squad role for the franchise this season.
  • The Nashville Predators announced they have reassigned forward Eeli Tolvanen to the squad. The 21-year-old has appeared in eight games with the Predators this season.

East Division

  • The New Jersey Devils have swapped a pair of forwards, sending Yegor Sharangovich to the taxi squad while calling up Mikhail Maltsev as his replacement. Although they have been used differently so far this season, both rookies have been effective in the Devils lineup. However, after a hot start Sharangovich has cooled off while Maltsev has performed in his more recent showings. According to the AHL’s Binghamton Devils, New Jersey has also reassigned forward Nick Merkley from the taxi squad to the minors. Merkley has actually played well in the NHL so far this season, recording three points in five games with the Devils.
  • With the losses of Jake McCabe and William Borgen to injuries, the Buffalo Sabres have promoted two players from the Rochester Americans to the taxi squad. The team announced that Jacob Bryson and Casey Fitzgerald will move up and fill the defensive depth void that the team has dealt with over the last few days.

North Division

  • The Edmonton Oilers announced they have recalled defenseman Theodor Lennstrom from the Bakersfield Condors of the AHL and moved him to the taxi squad. The move was required with the injury to defenseman Slater Koekkoek. Lennstrom will need time to quarantine with Bakersfield being in the U.S., requiring the player to cross the border.
  • Ryan Pike of FlamesNation reports that the Calgary Flames have made a salary cap move, sending defenseman Oliver Kylington to the taxi squad and thereby filling up their taxi-squad roster. The 23-year-old has yet to appear in a game for the Flames this season.
  • The Ottawa Senators announced they have recalled a number of players from the taxi squad for Sunday’s game, including goaltender Joey Daccord, defenseman Braydon Coburn and forward Micheal Haley. The team also assigned forward Artem Anisimov to the taxi squad to make room for them and also moved Logan Shaw from the Belleville Senators of the AHL to the taxi squad.

West Division

  • The Minnesota Wild have moved a pair of young players back to the minors. The team announced that defenseman Calen Addison and goalie Dereck Baribeau have been reassigned to AHL Iowa. Addison, one of Minnesota’s top prospects, logged over 18 minutes of ice time on average through his first three NHL games.
  • The Arizona Coyotes announced they have swapped several players from the Tucson Roadrunners of the AHL and the taxi squad. The team has assigned forwards Frederik Gauthier and Kyle Capobianco from the Tucson to the taxi squad. The Coyotes also assigned forwards Hudson Fasching and Michael Chaput to Tucson to replace them. Capobianco has appeared in two games for Arizona this season.
  • The San Jose Sharks announced they have reassigned forward Maxim Letunov and goaltender Josef Korenar to the San Barracuda of the AHL. Neither player has appeared in a Sharks game this season.

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