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Maple Leafs Targeting Mikael Granlund

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It has been a rough couple of weeks for the Maple Leafs who have seen their lead in the North Division vanish as they sit tied with Edmonton in points with 42 (although Toronto has two games in hand).  GM Kyle Dubas has made it known that he’s looking to add a rental player to the fold and as TSN’s Frank Seravalli reports in the latest Insider Trading segment (video link), their top target is Predators forward Mikael Granlund.

The 29-year-old eventually returned to Nashville in late December after not being able to secure a long-term contract elsewhere.  Instead, Granlund opted for a one-year, $3.75MM pact with the hopes that a full season under John Hynes would put him in a better position to cash in on the open market this summer.

That hasn’t happened.  After a delayed start to his season due to quarantine protocols, Granlund simply hasn’t found his footing.  Although he played well under Hynes following the coaching change last season, any momentum was certainly long gone as he has been limited to just six goals and five assists in 28 games this season.  While his deal looked like a possible bargain back in the winger, it’s now an above-market contract.

Despite that, it’s understandable why Toronto would have some interest in Granlund.  They have a spot in their top six that they’d like to try and improve upon and while his numbers this season are down, he averaged 63 points per year between 2016-17 and 2018-19.  In the right environment, he’s a strong bounce-back candidate and with the quality of their top forwards, he could certainly step in and make an impact.

There are some questions that would have to be answered first before a deal can happen.  Let’s get the obvious out of the way with the salary cap.  Per CapFriendly, Toronto has just over $400K of cap space.  Even as that builds up as time elapses, it’s only worth about $750K in a full-season salary, nowhere near enough.  Even if Nashville was to retain half, they’d still need to offset money.  Including Ilya Mikheyev ($1.645MM) would work in that scenario but if the Preds aren’t willing to retain, then someone like Alexander Kerfoot ($3.5MM) would likely need to be involved.  With term left on both of those contracts (one year for Mikheyev and two years for Kerfoot), there’s no guarantee that the Predators would want to add money into next season.

As Seravalli adds, there is also the question of the quarantine status.  Right now, players that are moved from the United States to Canada are required to serve a 14-day stint in a hotel, causing them to miss several games in the process.  Canadian teams – led by Toronto – have been trying to push to have that reduced but haven’t made any progress on that front.

There’s also the matter of Nashville’s potential playoff push.  Heading into play tonight, they’re only four points out of the final postseason spot in the Central Division.  While it has been assumed for a while that they’d sell, their proximity to fourth place could push GM David Poile to delay deciding on their plans for Granlund.

Clearly, while the Maple Leafs have some interest in Granlund, there is a lot to work out over the coming weeks for a deal to happen.  But if some of those can’t be resolved or Nashville’s tentativeness in selling is extended, Toronto may have to set their sights elsewhere before the April 12th trade deadline.

Roman Josi Activated From Injured Reserve

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The Nashville Predators have activated Roman Josi from injured reserve and are expecting him to play tonight against the Detroit Red Wings. It would be Josi’s first game since March 7, just over two weeks ago. The team has also recalled Michael McCarron and Alexandre Carrier from the taxi squad, moving Jeremy Davis back to it in the process.

Josi’s return comes just as more reports emerge about their other defensemen, including Ryan Ellis and Mattias Ekholm. Today on TSN’s Insider Trading, Pierre LeBrun reported that the ask for Ekholm now is a big one, including a first-round pick, an elite prospect, and a third asset. Ekholm of course is not on an expiring contract as his deal won’t finish until after the 2021-22 season.

If the Predators are going to move a big name off of the blue line, Josi’s return could be an important one. Without him, the team wouldn’t have much left to carry the rest of the season, given Ellis isn’t expected back from injury anytime soon. If he can prove he is once again healthy enough to log 25+ minutes a night and drive offense from the back end, perhaps it changes GM David Poile’s mind on whether to move Ekholm in the coming weeks.

The reigning Norris Trophy winner has 16 points in 25 games this season and will try to add to that total tonight against Detroit.

Latest On Nashville Predators Deadline Chips

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The Nashville Predators have won three of their last four games and had a familiar face on the ice at this morning’s skate, as injured captain Roman Josi joined the group while working his way back. The team also had pending unrestricted free agent Mikael Granlund on the ice after he missed the team’s game on Sunday, but still absent were the group of Matt Duchene, Luke Kunin, and Ryan Ellis.

Ellis specifically is not close to a return, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be making headlines. Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet opened his 31 Thoughts column today with a note on the veteran defenseman, explaining that he is no longer off-limits in trade talks. Ellis was one of three players that Friedman listed as an “untouchable” when discussing the Predators last month, but now writes that “something’s made the Predators think.”

Specifically, Friedman speculates that the Philadelphia Flyers could be a fit for Ellis, given how long he could be an impact player for them. The recently-turned 30-year-old is under contract through the 2026-27 season at a cap hit of $6.25MM, more than reasonable when Ellis is playing at his full capacity. There aren’t a ton of defensemen that can impact the game as much as Ellis when healthy, as shown by his outstanding offensive and defensive numbers.

Since his first full season in 2013-14, Ellis ranks 30th among defensemen in scoring with 244 points, fifth in plus/minus at +103, and has averaged more than 21 minutes a night playing on both the powerplay and penalty kill. If possession statistics are more your taste, his 56.5% on-ice GF% puts him 10th among defensemen with at least 100 games played, and he comes in at 27th in CF% at 52.7%, again among those with at least 100 games played since 2013-14.

In short, Ellis is a true top-pairing defenseman that could be a game-changer for many teams around the league, though it’s not clear what kind of package would be needed to pry him out of Nashville. Even his inclusion in trade talks is surprising and may point to a more widespread rebuild plan for Predators GM David Poile.

Also mentioned in Friedman’s piece is Granlund, who continues to be among the top rental options on the market, and Calle Jarnkrok, who still has a year left on his contract. The 29-year-old Jarnkrok was one of the long-term deals that paid off for Poile, who signed him to a six-year, $12MM deal in 2016 after just 167 NHL games. While he has never really developed into a top scoring option, Jarnkork has chipped in double-digit goal totals in each season of the deal and has 15 points in 26 games this season. For just a $2MM cap hit, that kind of scoring depth is valuable, especially when it is versatile enough to play center or the wing.

Mattias Ekholm is the other big name available in Nashville, and though Ellis steals Friedman’s headline, the Sportsnet scribe tucks in another note. Other executives around the league believe that Montreal Canadiens GM Marc Bergevin has “made a push” for Ekholm, despite his pleas to the media that it will be a quiet deadline for the club. Ekholm has been linked to almost every contender in the league at one point or another, given how effective he is for a relatively low cap hit. The 30-year-old is under contract through next season at a $3.75MM cap hit, though is owed $5MM in actual salary for 2021-22.

Even with several obstacles in the way of trades this season, it seems to be shaping up as an exciting deadline for the Predators if they want it to be.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

Trade Candidate: Erik Haula

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With the trade deadline quickly approaching, we continue our closer look at some of the players who have a good chance of being on the move between now and April 12th.

The last 13 months have been a bit of a roller coaster for Erik Haula.  Last season, he was doing a nice job with Carolina on their third line before he was somewhat surprisingly traded at the deadline a year ago in the Vincent Trocheck deal.  He played out the stretch with Florida and then entered free agency as one of the top options on the market in what was a weak center free agent class.

However, it took quite a while for him to find a place to play, eventually signing in late December with Nashville on what looked a well below-market contract.  Things haven’t gone particularly well for him this season – something that can be said for a lot of the Predators’ players – and as a result, it looks like Haula will be on the move before the trade deadline once again.

Contract

Haula is on a one-year, $1.75MM contract and will be an unrestricted free agent this summer.  His deal does not contain any trade protection.

2020-21

Haula came into the season looking like he’d be a fixture on Nashville’s third line behind Ryan Johansen and Matt Duchene.  That’s mostly been the case but it’s also not a good thing.  Johansen and Duchene have both missed time due to injury and have struggled mightily and yet Haula hasn’t been able to take advantage of it with Mikael Granlund instead being moved down the middle.

It’s not as if Haula’s ice time has been limited by the lack of top-six opportunities at five-on-five either; he’s a regular on both the penalty kill and power play and actually sits sixth in ATOI among forwards but with three goals, the production simply hasn’t been there.  One thing working in his favor is that he’s still winning faceoffs at an above-average clip but that in itself won’t be enough to garner a more favorable market this summer.

Right now, he may be viewed around the league as a fourth-line upgrade over someone that can be on a third line.  A change of scenery would give him a chance to potentially rebuild some value by working his way up the lineup and with Nashville on the outside looking in at a playoff spot, it’s an opportunity he likely wouldn’t mind getting.

Season Stats

26 GP, 3 goals, 6 assists, 9 points, -5 rating, 8 PIMS, 34 shots, 56.3% faceoff wins, 15:35 TOI, 48.4 CF%

Potential Suitors

Searching for affordable bottom-six upgrades is an annual tradition heading into the trade deadline and with so many teams being cap-strapped, there could be even more emphasis than usual on making low-cost incremental upgrades.

In the Central, Florida is a logical landing spot for the second straight year.  Their third and fourth-line centers are still quite unproven at the NHL level and Haula would have the benefit of some familiarity with Joel Quenneville’s system from his brief time there a year ago.  The Panthers also have the cap space to absorb the contract without any sort of salary offset which is something that can’t be said for some other potentially interested teams.  If Columbus hangs in the playoff race and opts not to sell, Haula would make sense there as well with a fairly weak center group in general.

In the East, the continually-long list of injuries in Pittsburgh makes them a team likely to look for some depth upgrades that can play a bigger role in the short-term and Haula could conceivably slide onto their third line with Evgeni Malkin out week-to-week.  The finances would be a bit tricky, however, with most of their cap room derived from Jason Zucker’s LTIR placement but he is expected back before the end of the regular season.  Nashville would need to retain or Pittsburgh would have to send a player back to make the money work.

As for the North Division, Montreal has already been linked to one similarly-priced rental center as they could stand to upgrade on the fourth line while their top two young centers have had some ups and downs this season.  As is the case with Pittsburgh, however, they can’t afford him straight up and would need retention to facilitate a move. Unlike others on this list, there’s also the two-week quarantine period to contend with.

In the West, Tyson Jost and J.T. Compher’s struggles this season should have Colorado looking for a short-term upgrade.  Knowing the contracts that are coming due for next season, any addition would need to be a rental which Haula is and while he hasn’t been much better than those two, it stands to reason that a change of scenery to an expected contender may help elevate his game.  In terms of cap affordability, a lot depends on the status of Erik Johnson and Pavel Francouz, both of whom are on LTIR with no certainty for when or if they’ll be able to return during the regular season.

Likelihood Of A Trade

With Nashville technically only six points out of the final spot in the Central Division, it can’t entirely be ruled out that they opt not to sell in which case Haula will probably stick around.  However, if they continue to be on the outside looking in over the next few weeks, he’s a strong candidate to be moved considering his struggles so far while still having a good enough recent track record to make him fit on several playoff-contending teams.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Bruins, Jets Among Teams Interested In Mattias Ekholm

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One of the top prizes of the trade deadline – if he ultimately gets dealt – is Predators defenseman Mattias Ekholm.  A top-four blueliner is hard to come by at this time of year, especially one that’s on an affordable contract for next season.  Accordingly, there will be no shortage of suitors, even in a salary cap environment where most contenders can’t afford to add anyone of consequence without offsetting money.  Sportsnet’s Elliotte Friedman reports in his latest 31 Thoughts column that the Jets and Bruins are among the teams that are interested in Ekholm’s services.

The 30-year-old has been a minutes-eater for several seasons now, logging more than 23 per night over each of the last four seasons, a number that hasn’t dipped much this year as Ekholm is at 22:18 per game in 2020-21.  He’s playing at a 33-point pace offensively, a mark that he has reached in four of the last five seasons as well.  Often matched against top lines from other teams, he’s someone that can conceivably slot onto the top pairing which will have many contenders intrigued.

The easy parallel to draw in terms of what the cost will be is Toronto’s acquisition of Jake Muzzin two years ago.  Muzzin’s contract situation was similar to Ekholm’s deal ($3.75MM this season and next before being UFA-eligible) and Friedman notes that Nashville is using Muzzin’s return as a template for these talks.  That would include a first-round pick plus a pair of quality prospects.

There is definitely a case to be made for both Boston and Winnipeg to pay that price.  The Bruins never replaced Torey Krug who left for St. Louis in free agency last summer which has left a vacancy in their top-four.  Their younger blueliners have held their own in that role but if they have eyes on contending, they’d be in better shape with a proven veteran in that spot.  Jarred Tinordi, a recent waiver claim to cover for some recent injuries, suffered an upper-body injury tonight against Pittsburgh as well.

As for the Jets, defense has been a considerable weakness for them the last couple of years with the exodus of talent they’ve had.  Two years ago, Dustin Byfuglien, Jacob Trouba, Tyler Myers, and Ben Chiarot were all fixtures on their back end but all four are gone now with Neal Pionk being the only impact blueliner added since then.  Ekholm would form a nice one-two punch on the left side with Josh Morrissey and give that unit some stability.  Of course, there is the quarantine period to contend with but GM Kevin Cheveldayoff indicated yesterday that it’s not a concern for him; they’ve already made one big move this season with that in place as it is.

Ekholm has made it known that his preference is to remain in Nashville but as Friedman puts it, the veteran may be the ‘belle of the trading ball’ at the moment.  If that’s the case, GM David Poile may eventually be offered an offer that’s too good to pass up on between now and next month’s trade deadline which means the defenseman may not get his wish.

Pekka Rinne Hoping To Retire A Predator

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If any goalie-needing contenders were watching today, Pekka Rinne put on quite a show. In a match that the Nashville Predators seemed destined to lose, down several key players against the defending Stanley Cup champion Tampa Bay Lightning, Rinne stopped 38 of 39 shots en route to a 4-1 victory. The 38-year-old seemed to turn back the clock and showed why he was a Vezina winner not so long ago.

But if he has it his way, Rinne won’t be going anywhere at the deadline. The goaltender told Adam Vingan of The Athletic that despite a long Cup-less career to this point and Nashville struggling this season, he wants to retire a Predator. The veteran goaltender was listed as an “untouchable” by Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet last month and the team does not want to move him, according to Vingan.

Right now, they don’t really have a choice, given Juuse Saros is out dealing with an injury and there aren’t any other goaltenders in the system with real experience. But seeing Rinne go anywhere else before he hangs up his skates certainly wouldn’t seem right, given what he has accomplished for the Predators organization.

Debuting with the team in the 2005-06 season, Rinne’s rise to NHL starting goaltender is something of legend these days. GM David Poile spent an eighth-round pick on the goaltender after scout Janne Kekalainen convinced him of his upside, despite such few viewings. By the 2008-09 season, he was the team’s starter and never looked back. He now sits 32nd in all-time games played and 20th in wins.

All of those have come in a Predators uniform and that doesn’t appear to be changing.

Dante Fabbro Suspended Two Games

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The Department of Player Safety has come down on Dante Fabbro, ruling that the two-minute minor he received for elbowing Brock McGinn was not enough. The league has suspended the Nashville Predators defenseman two games for the incident. As the accompanying video explains:

It is important to note that players often hold their arms in front of their chest when delivering a hit to ensure that their chest does not absorb the full impact of the contact. However, on this hit, Fabbro does not keep his arm tight to his body, but instead extends it up and away from his chest, driving it directly into McGinn’s head. What causes this hit to rise to the level of supplementary discipline is Fabbro’s significant extension of his elbow upward and the direct head contact, combined with the force of the blow.

McGinn did leave the game initially but returned before it was over. Fabbro has not been fined or suspended in his NHL career, though that spans just 94 games so far.

The Predators will now be without Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis and Fabbro for the next two games, leaving Mattias Ekholm as the only true top-four option on the roster. That means younger players like Jeremy Davies and Alexandre Carrier, both up on emergency loans, will likely be asked to play significant roles.

Dante Fabbro To Have Hearing With Department Of Player Safety

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The Department of Player Safety has some more work to do and the Nashville Predators are about to lose another key player. Dante Fabbro has a hearing today for his elbow on Carolina Hurricanes forward Brock McGinn. The incident happened midway through the second period last night and Fabbro was issued a two-minute minor penalty. McGinn initially left the game but did return in the third period.

Fabbro appears to be destined to miss at least one game since the league will be holding a hearing, meaning Nashville is down another defenseman. They’re already missing Roman Josi, Ryan Ellis, and Luca Sbisa due to injury, forcing Fabbro into an increased role. The young defenseman played nearly 23 minutes last night including nearly five shorthanded and recorded an assist. With him out, Mattias Ekholm will likely have an even bigger load dropped on his plate after logging nearly 29 minutes last night.

The Predators’ next game is tomorrow against the same Hurricanes for traveling to Tampa Bay for a two-game series against the Lightning.

Mattias Ekholm Hoping To Remain With Predators

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With the Predators struggling in the standings (sixth in the Central Division) and a rapidly-growing list of injuries to key players, defenseman Mattias Ekholm has emerged as a potential trade piece.  But if the 30-year-old has his way, he’ll be staying with Nashville as he told Adam Vingan of The Athletic (subscription link) that his preference is to remain with the team that drafted back in the fourth round (102nd overall) in 2009.

It’s quite understandable as to why he’ll be highly sought-after.  Top-four blueliners are hard to come by at this time of year and Ekholm is certainly that.  He has logged heavy minutes, playing more than 23 per game in each of the last four seasons and over 21 this year.  Offensively, he has been quietly consistent, picking up 33 points or more in four of the last five years and with four goals and five assists in 18 games this season, he’d be above that pace if this was a full schedule.  And of course, in his own end, he has been one of Nashville’s top defensive weapons, often spending time against opposing top players.

At a time where teams are having even more difficulty fitting extra money on the books, Ekholm is certainly quite affordable.  Carrying just a $3.75MM AAV for this season and next, he’s on a below-market deal although in this environment, it’s worth noting that his price tag in salary dollars jumps to $5MM next season.

The obvious comparable in terms of a trade would be the Kings-Maple Leafs swap involving Jake Muzzin in 2019 with the blueliner going to Toronto for a first-round pick and a pair of prospects.  Muzzin carried a similar price tag ($4MM), was the same age, and had the same amount of term remaining on the deal.

However, there are a couple of different factors at play.  More teams could afford Muzzin then than can afford Ekholm now unless Nashville shows a desire to take a sizable contract back as part of the return.  Of course, there is also expansion to consider.  Ekholm would almost certainly be a must-protect player so the acquiring team would have to be comfortable with not only losing the elements required for any trade but also the opportunity cost of not protecting a different defender has to also be taken into consideration.

While the 2020-21 season is going up in smoke in a hurry for the Preds, this isn’t a situation where GM David Poile is going to be forced into making a move.  Nashville can safely protect Ekholm from Seattle and because he has another year on his deal, Poile can wait until the summer to see what the offers look like when teams more have financial flexibility.  Of course, Ekholm’s preference appears to be that no move is made at all.

Roman Josi Out Week-To-Week

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The Nashville Predators have struggled on the ice even when healthy, but now healthy they are not. The team’s injured reserve is already filled with important names like Matt Duchene, Ryan Ellis, Luke Kunin, and Juuse Saros, but now the final blow has been dealt. Captain Roman Josi has been listed as “week-to-week” by the team with a lower-body injury despite playing more than 25 minutes and scoring the shootout winner on Sunday night.

The team has recalled Mathieu Olivier, Rem Pitlick, and Jeremy Davies from the taxi squad for tonight’s game against the Carolina Hurricanes. Erik Haula will also not be available to the team after appearing on the COVID Protocol Related Absences list.

If there was any hope still left in Nashville that the Predators could turn things around, losing Josi for any length of time should kill it. The team is 11-14-0 on the season but carries a -21 goal differential, one of the worst marks in the entire NHL. Their best two defensemen, younger goaltender and top-line center are all sidelined by injury for the time being and the team has to play the Carolina Hurricanes, Tampa Bay Lightning, and Florida Panthers for the next six games.

There’s no doubt that Josi, the reigning Norris Trophy winner, is still the team’s most important player (even if Filip Forsberg has been carrying the entire offensive load on his back this season). The 30-year-old captain is averaging more than 25 minutes a night once again and is second in team scoring, with 16 points in 25 games. Losing Josi and Ellis in quick succession suddenly leaves a Predators blueline looking awfully thin, especially when considering that Mattias Ekholm is apparently available for trade. Perhaps this is the push that GM David Poile needed to really embrace the firesale that seems inevitable in Nashville.

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