Snapshots: Brayden Schenn, O’Byrne, Giroux, Shattenkirk, The Players’ Tribune
Greg Paone of CSNPhilly writes today that a shorter term deal could be beneficial to both the Philadelphia Flyers and forward Brayden Schenn, as they look to avoid an arbitration battle. Paone argues that Schenn’s first five years as a Flyer have been marked by inconsistency, and the Flyers may not be ready to bet on him just yet. On the other hand, Schenn, coming off the best year of his career, could get a bigger deal later on, by betting on himself and going out and producing the same kind of totals he did this year. It may be worth noting that Brayden Schenn’s career points and goals per game numbers are just shy of those put up by Leafs’ forward Nazem Kadri, taken two pick after him in the 2009 entry draft, and who signed a six-year contract jut after the season, with a $4.5MM average annual value.
More news and links from around the NHL:
- Former Canadiens, Avalanche, and Maple Leafs’ defenseman Ryan O’Byrne has announced his retirement from professional hockey. O’Byrne, who is perhaps most famous for an odd arrest involving a woman’s purse, last played in the NHL in 2013, during the Maple Leafs’ infamous series with the Boston Bruins. O’Byrne played this past season for HV71 of the Swedish league.
- Joey Alfieri of NBC Pro Hockey Talk reports good news for Flyers fans. Claude Giroux skated today, a week sooner than he was expected to. Giroux, who had been expected to miss 10-12 weeks following hip surgery, scored 22 goals, 67 points in 78 games of what is actually a bit of a down year, given his normal production. That said, he was likely playing hurt for a portion of that, and was still selected to represent Canada at the World Cup of Hockey.
- Andy Graziano, an Islanders columnist for SNY in New York, notes NHL.com’s Brian Compton’s assertion that the Rangers aren’t done, and reports that talks for Blues’ defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk are “heating back up.” Shattenkirk has been tied to the Rangers repeatedly this summer, and the recent Derick Brassard trade managed to clear some cap room.
- Speaking of the Rangers, former Ranger Brian Leetch and current Ranger Dominic Moore took the The Players’ Tribune today. Moore wrote in advance of his annual charity ping pong tournament to benefit research for concussions, brain injuries, and ran cancers, and Leetch discussed the assortment of legends he got to play with in his time in New York.
2016 Draftees Who May Play Immediately
It’s incredibly hard for a teenager to play in the NHL, and never more than a handful of them do. That said, the 2016 entry draft has several candidates to do so this year. Here we’ll take a look at the chances that a few of the league’s top prospects make their debuts sooner, rather than later.
- Auston Matthews – Matthews may be in the middle of a dispute with Leafs’ management over rookie bonuses, but a long-term holdout, which is rare for recently drafted players, is just about the only way he isn’t playing in the NHL next year. Matthews has the size to play in the league already, and has a year of playing with grown men in Switzerland under his belt. He also will be 19 when the season starts, rather than 18, because he was born right after the age cutoff. The last player to be selected first overall and not play in the NHL the next season was Erik Johnson, selected by the Blues in 2006. As a defenseman, Johnson was assumed to need longer to develop, and had already committed to playing college hockey.
- Patrick Laine – Laine is expected to be one of the better goal scorers in the NHL pretty quickly, and given that, similarly to Matthews, he played in a men’s pro league last year, and succeeded at the IIHF World Championships for Finland, it would be hard to say he isn’t ready. Laine should fit in well with a strong offensive group in Winnipeg that’s getting younger and better at the same time.
- Pierre-Luc Dubois – Dubois has a few advantages going for him. While his numbers don’t scream the type of player who hits the big leagues immediately, he’s already 6’3″ and over 200 lbs. He was also drafted by a Blue Jackets team that’s weak enough all over to provide very little competition, by a GM in Jarmo Kekalainen, who risked a lot of his reputation to select him over Jesse Puljujarvi and Matthew Tkachuk. Considering the speed with which he was signed, it’s easy to imagine him suiting up immediately.
- Jesse Puljujarvi – Puljujarvi was one of the big three going into the draft, and the fact that he fell to the Oilers at four made some wonder if they’d just won the lottery again. Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli told reporters that, if he can play, Puljujarvi gives them “more flexibility” in their search for a defenseman. Considering another winger, Taylor Hall, was traded for defenseman Adam Larsson three days later, it’s likely Chiarelli thinks he can play.
- Olli Juolevi – Generally, defensemen are given less opportunity to play in the NHL right away, or at least significant minutes. There’s good reason for this, since we have examples of highly drafted defensemen like Luke Schenn playing immediately, and being too overwhelmed too early to learn any more as a player. Juolevi’s opportunity mostly stems from the weakness on the Canucks back end. Since they are one of a number of teams to openly pursue balance between the left and right sides though, that means he’ll have to compete with Ben Hutton, coming off a solid rookie year, 2014 draft pick Nikita Tryamkin, and Luca Sbisa, whose contract may just be too big to put in the press box.
- Matthew Tkachuk – Another player that will be determined by circumstances. The Flames don’t have a lot of depth up front, but they also don’t have an absolutely glaring hole. They’ve got two players who are pretty much sure things, in Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, and then Sam Bennett looks to be on the brink. After that, there are some plugs, and there’s some guess work. Tkachuk is big enough to play right away, but he’ll likely only get a shot if he can force himself into a top six role.
- Mikhail Sergachev – Another defenseman whose team will certainly treat cautiously. Sergachev mostly makes the list because some have called him NHL ready, and he shares that same physical maturity with the other players list here. That said, he turned 18 the day after the draft, and he’d be fighting for the last defense spot with Mark Barberio and Greg Pateryn, meaning he won’t waltz onto the team. Sergachev had some short term misfortune being drafted highly by a team that was probably too good to be doing so, but long term, this is probably better for his development.
Minor NHL Transactions: 7/20/2016
Here is where we will keep track of the day’s minor moves:
- The Florida Panthers, via their team website, have announced the re-signing of forward Logan Shaw to a one-year, two-way contract. The six-foot-three, 202-pound Shaw saw action in 53 games with the Panthers in 2015-16, netting 5 goals and 7 points. He also appeared in 19 contests with the Portland Pirates (AHL) where he tallied 11 goals and 14 points. With the Panthers among the more active teams this summer, adding talent via both free agency and the trade market, it would seem the roster is pretty set meaning Shaw is likely to serve as a depth piece in 2016-17, much as he did this past season.
- Veteran center T.J. Hensick is set to join the Ontario Reign, the AHL affiliate of the Los Angeles Kings, according to the L.A Kings Insider website. Hensick last appeared in the NHL back during the 2010-11 campaign while a member of the St. Louis Blues. He split the past campaign with Utica and Charlotte of the AHL, scoring 40 points in 65 games. Hensick played with Kings prospect Adrian Kempe for MODO in the Swedish Hockey League in 2013-14, suggesting his familiarity with one of the club’s top prospects played a role in this signing.
- Arizona has hired former NHL goalie Doug Soetaert to be the General Manager of their AHL affiliate, the Tucson Roadrunners. Most recently, Soetaert was a professional scout in the Arizona organization covering the western region. Prior to that, Soetaert plied his trade in Europe, scouting all professional leagues on the continent as well as the AHL. Soetaert also has extensive experience in the North American junior leagues, serving as Vice President and General Manager of the Everett Silvertips of the Western Hockey League from 2002 – 2012. During his playing days, Soetaert appeared in 284 games as a member of the New York Rangers (two stints), Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens.
Current Status Of Top-Ten Draft Picks
As we approach a month since the NHL Entry Draft took place, teams have started to lock up their newest talents to lucrative deals and will soon begin the process of determining where they’ll play next season (if they haven’t already). For some, the contract seemed a mere formality and was signed within days of the draft; for others, their continuing negotiations are like torture for the fans that have already put in a pre-order for a dozen jerseys, and promised to name their next child Auston, Clayton, or Tyson.
Here is the current status of each of the top ten picks of the 2016 NHL draft:
(Annual average value (AAV) includes potential performance bonuses.)
- Auston Matthews (TOR) – Unsigned – Matthews continues to negotiate with the Maple Leafs on his entry-level deal, though all signs point to an amiable discussion so far. With GM Lou Lamoriello’s known opposition to incentive-laden contracts, perhaps the Maple Leafs and first-overall pick are working out something a little more creative to reward Matthews.
- Patrik Laine (WPG) – Signed, July 3rd: Three years, $3.575MM AAV – After moving up four spots in the draft lottery, Winnipeg was given the chance to draft a potential franchise-altering player in Laine, and they didn’t take long to lock him up. The Finnish winger is an elite goal scoring talent that should step into the NHL right away and be a threat for the Calder trophy. He came in just $200K under the maximum allowed for players signing their ELC.
- Pierre-Luc Dubois (CBJ) – Signed, June 29th: Three years, $3.425MM AAV – The Blue Jackets also moved up after winning a lottery spot, and were expected by many to pick Jesse Puljujarvi, the other Finnish winger who had long been a top choice by scouts. Instead, the team looked down the middle and took the second ranked center in Dubois. Though he’ll probably head back to the QMJHL for another season, Dubois has an extremely high ceiling capable of being a number one center – Columbus will give him every chance to reach it.
- Jesse Puljujarvi (EDM) – Signed, July 13th: Three years, $3.425MM AAV – Even with the glut of young forwards Edmonton already had, they couldn’t pass up a chance at Puljujarvi after he fell to four. They tried to trade the pick but couldn’t find fair value for it, and so added the young Finn to their group. Perhaps that led them to the decision that Taylor Hall was expendable, as they have another elite talent on the wing (though he and Hall normally play opposite sides) that could jump to the NHL right away.
- Olli Juolevi (VAN) – Unsigned – The first defenseman taken in this year’s draft, Juolevi was a rising talent after his Memorial Cup victory with the London Knights. Capable of playing in any situation, Juolevi is as good of a defensive prospect as you can expect to get with the fifth overall pick. Perhaps not a franchise player, he’ll be a big part of Vancouver’s blueline for years to come – that is, whenever he signs his first contract.
- Matthew Tkachuk (CGY) – Signed, July 7th: Three years, $1.775MM AAV – The Flames’ front office must have been ecstatic when Tkachuk was still available when their turn came, as he’s exactly the type of player that President Brian Burke loves. Tkachuck, son of former NHL great Keith, agreed to a deal that will max-out under $2MM even if he hits all of his bonuses. If he turns into the player many believe him to be, at some point skating alongside new Flames’ right-winger Troy Brouwer would be an imposing sight to be sure.
- Clayton Keller (ARZ) – Unsigned – The Arizona Coyotes followed Columbus’ lead and took a center with their first pick of the round (they would later trade for the 16th overall pick to select D Jakob Chychrun) but haven’t signed the USA standout. As we reported yesterday, Keller is standing by his commitment to head to Boston University next season, though the Windsor Spitfires are doing everything they can to bring him to the OHL. He likely won’t sign with the Coyotes until he’s ready to make the jump from the NCAA.
- Alexander Nylander (BUF) – Signed, July 15th: Three years, $1.775MM AAV – The younger brother of Toronto Maple Leafs center William and son of former NHLer Michael, Nylander is expected to play a big part in the re-build for Buffalo over the next few seasons. With the team hitting rock bottom last year, they are on a steady climb upwards and have perhaps turned a corner with the huge signing of Kyle Okposo this summer. Nylander has impressed many at camp with his blend of skating ability and hard shot.
- Mikhail Sergachev (MTL) – Signed, July 1st: Three years, $1.775MM AAV – Sergachev is an interesting case, as he came over in the OHL’s import draft and made an impact in his rookie season, winning the Max Kaminsky trophy as the league’s top blueliner. Many think he’ll head back to Windsor for another season, but there has been rumbling that he could crack the Canadiens roster as soon as this year. The left-handed shooting Russian is a born powerplay quarterback, and may eventually slide in next to Shea Weber on the top unit.
- Tyson Jost (COL) – Unsigned – Colorado reached into the BCHL to select Jost, an elite offensive talent out of Penticton, if a little undersized. He’ll be heading to the NCAA this year as well, as he’s committed to the University of North Dakota for 2016-17. This is the usual route for players out of Penticton, as since the CHL is deemed a professional league by the NCAA, the BCHL is the highest level of hockey in North America allowed before heading to college. Like Keller, don’t expect Jost to sign anytime soon.
For the other twenty picks of the first round, only Jake Bean and Julien Gauthier have signed as of yet. Many of the players selected here won’t sign a contract until their 2016-17 assignment/league has been decided. Keep an eye on PHR and Roster Resource to track when they sign and where they’re headed next season.
Subban “Head-Over-Heels Excited” To Play In Nashville
The Nashville Predators unveiled newly-acquired superstar defenseman P.K. Subban to their fans and local media on Monday. According to the Canadian Press, Subban had lunch with new teammates Mike Fisher and Ryan Ellis as part of his tour of the city prior to the press conference, where he sang Johnny Cash’s “Folsom Prison Blues”.
Subban told reporters he will always have fond memories of and connections to Montreal, but that he’s ready to move on, saying “coming here [Nashville] is not a popularity contest. Coming here is about helping this team to win and win a championship”.
Predators General Manager David Poile called his new acquisition a “superstar, game-changing defenseman and one of the most electrifying players in the game”. Poile was hopeful that the trade would help his team score more goals and spend less time in the defensive zone.
The Predators paid a big price to acquire the former Norris trophy winner, trading their captain Shea Weber to Montreal in a rare one-for-one trade. The June 29 trade is still a highly controversial topic; the Canadiens recently let go analytics consultant Matt Pfeffer after he submitted a “passionate” report in defence of Subban prior to the trade, in which he reportedly called Weber an “average player”. Earlier this afternoon, Pfeffer tweeted some context to the “average” remark, saying it was specifically with regards to one advanced stat category.
Subban and Weber each put up 51 points last season, however Weber scored more goals (20-6) in 10 more games (78-68). However, Subban has outscored Weber by 22 points (202-180) since 2012-13. Subban drives the play more than Weber, who is a more steady defensive defenseman. According to an analysis by Jonathan Willis, Weber relied on partner Roman Josi to make outlet passes, something that Subban excels at. Subban is also four year younger than Weber and just reaching the prime of his career.
Contract-wise, Subban is the highest-paid defenseman in the NHL. He earns an average of $9MM per year until 2022, while Weber’s cap hit is slightly lower at $7.86MM but doesn’t expire until 2026. Subban will be just 32 when his deal is up, only two years older than Weber is today. Weber will be 41 when his contract expires, which could lead to some nasty cap-recapture penalties for Nashville if he retires before then. Poile obviously feels the risk is worth it to acquire Subban, giving them possibly the best top four defense in the league with Subban, Josi, Ellis, and Mattias Ekholm.
Snapshots: Bernier, Weber, Benn, Tavares, Patrick
Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reports that the Maple Leafs compensation for trading netminder Jonathan Bernier is contingent on a number of scenarios. According to Johnston, the only way the Leafs receive a draft pick is if the Ducks advance to the Stanley Cup Final. Johnston writes that there were four conditions placed on the trade.
The conditions, word for word from Johnston, are the following:
- If Bernier starts half of Anaheim’s playoff games next spring and the Ducks lose in the Stanley Cup Final, Toronto receives the Ducks’ 2017 third-round pick. (If Anaheim doesn’t still own that selection, it will transfer its next available third-rounder from a future year.)
- Should Anaheim trade Bernier to a team that starts him in half of its playoff games next spring and wins the Stanley Cup, Toronto receives the Ducks’ second-round pick.
- Should Anaheim trade Bernier to a team that starts him in half of its playoff games next spring and loses in the Stanley Cup Final, Toronto receives the Ducks’ third-round pick.
Failure to meet any of these conditions means Toronto misses out on a draft pick.
In other news around the league:
- The Shea Weber–P.K. Subban trade is still being talked about weeks after the trigger was pulled. The Hockey News’ Ken Campbell reports that fired analytics guru Matt Pfeffer called Weber “average,” but added that average players are “worth a heck of a lot.” Pfeffer, according to numerous reports, provided Canadiens management with a detailed report on the potential trade of Weber for Subban. His contract was not renewed. Campbell writes that Pfeffer believes the “eye test” still rules in NHL scouting circles, and that analytics have not been fully embraced throughout the league. Pfeffer also indicates that he holds no ill-will toward the Canadiens because they “gave him a shot.” Pfeffer knows that the maturation of analytics will take time, and that NHL teams use a number of different resources to make the final call on trades.
- Puck Daddy’s Ryan Lambert writes that Jamie Benn‘s rich new deal with the Stars can only mean good things for Islanders captain John Tavares. Lambert reports that Tavares has been the bargain of a lifetime for the Isles in terms of price, and knowing that he does similar, if not better work than Benn, a handsome payday should be in store. Lambert shows that without Tavares, the Isles depth chart gets pretty thin, and that the captain is also two years younger than Benn, only increasing his value. Tavares, he says, would have gotten paid no matter what. But he now has a better bargaining chip after Benn’s $9.5AAV deal.
- As many eyes turn to the 2017 NHL Draft, projected #1 pick Nolan Patrick is expected to play in training camp despite a sports hernia injury that will keep him out of Canada’s National Junior Development camp. The report from NHL.com says that Patrick should be ready for the Brandon Wheat Kings training camp which is slated for late August. Patrick paced the Wheat Kings to a WHL title, and was named the top playoff performer.
Snapshots: Subban, Red Wings, Riley
Yesterday’s news that the Canadiens released analytics guru Matt Pfeffer received more clarification from the young analyst today. Before the trade was consummated, Pfeffer told Sportsnet’s Eric Engels that he never had a meeting with management regarding any movement of Subban. Instead, Pfeffer submitted a report comparing Shea Weber and P.K. Subban that argued passionately for keeping Subban. The 21-year-old analyst added that management would always make their decisions on different types of information. Earlier reports indicated that Pfeffer made an “impassioned and elaborate presentation to management” for the retention of Subban. The trade was questioned and lamented by many Montreal fans. General manager Marc Bergevin, on the other hand, still has 100% support of ownership.
- The four year, $7.2MM extension of forward Luke Glendening crosses off another player for next season’s free agency craze, but still has some wondering what the Detroit Red Wings will do with a glut of forwards. While rumors spin that the Wings would pull the trigger to bring in a defenseman, all is quiet on that front, and with the re-signing of Glendening, it only adds to the intrigue writes the Hockey News’ Jared Clinton. With money committed to so many forwards, Clinton wonders what happens to Anthony Mantha, who can pass through waivers without being claimed. But is it best for the team? Mantha is the Red Wings top prospect, drafted for scoring purposes but rarely given the ice time in the NHL to prove that. General manager Ken Holland‘s recent statement that young players must earn their spot only confused after Holland looked ready to give younger players more responsibility. Additionally, it sounded like numerous trades would be made. With the signings of veterans, re-upping current players to long contracts, and no trades as of now, it appears that Holland may be changing his tune. Clinton writes that signing Danny DeKeyser and Petr Mrazek will put the Wings over the cap, and then, more difficult decisions will have to be made. With teams knowing the Red Wings are squeezed financially, it certainly adds a new wrinkle to the many decisions Holland still has to make.
- The Pittsburgh Penguins released a statement on the passing of the organization’s first general manager, Jack Riley. Riley was hired to build the Penguins, who were brought into the NHL as an expansion team for the 1967-68 season. Riley was 97.
News And Notes: Kings, Flyers, Scrivens, Penguins
The Los Angeles Kings announced today that they’ve signed 24-year-old center undrafted Patrick Bjorstrand to a one year contract. Bjorkstrand, the son of the Danish league’s Herning Blue Fox’s head coach Todd Bjorstraand, and brother of Columbus Blue Jackets’ prospect Oliver Bjorkstrand, scored nine goals, and 13 assists for the KHL’s Medveščak Zagreb last year.
Further links from around the NHL:
- The Philadelphia Flyers announced via their website that forward Nick Cousins has accepted his qualifying offer. Cousins will earn $937k on a one year contract.
- Former Maple Leafs, Oilers, and Canadiens goalie Ben Scrivens has signed with the KHL’s Dinamo Minsk, according to The Hockey Writers’ Alvis Kalnins. Scrivens played 15 games with the Canadiens this year, posting a .906 save percentage, and split the rest of the season with the Bakersfield Condors and the St. John’s Ice Caps.
- The Pittsburgh Tribune’s Bill West speculates on Twitter that after re-signing Justin Schultz, the Penguins may be loading up on skating defensemen hoping that at least one becomes a significant contributor, and that if several pan out, they may be able to deal one later on.
League-Wide Notes: Haggarty, Vegas, Martin, Vesey
Harley Haggarty writes in the Player’s Tribune today about his role as a fighter in junior and the AHL. His knowledge of his expiration date is fairly interesting, and generally speaking, the difference between this and what players in the big leagues say, NHL players tend to have more optimistic views and tend to want more to stay in the NHL for longer, is interesting in terms of analyzing players who choose to keep playing in the AHL once they realize they won’t be NHL stars.
More links from around the league:
- Gord Miller of TSN reports on Twitter that the Las Vegas NHL franchise will be named the Knights.
- Sportsnet’s Eric Engels writes today about the PK Subban trade, saying at one point that Mat Pfeffer, an analytics consultant for the Canadiens, likely lost his job because of his opposition to the trade.
- Draglikepull at The Leafs Nation writes statistically about the Matt Martin signing. His analysis seems to suggest that Martin struggles to create offense.
- Todd Cordell of HockeyBuzz reports that the Devils stand a shot at signing Harvard forward Jimmy Vesey. Cordell reports that they’re on Vesey’s short list. Vesey, who was drafted by Nashville, had 24 goals and 22 assists playing for Harvard last year.
Atlantic Notes: Subban, Canadiens, Panthers
Boston goaltending prospect Malcolm Subban has fully recovered from a fractured larynx he suffered in the pregame warmups in an AHL game back in early February, writes Stephen Harris of the Boston Herald. Subban was unable to exercise for more than two months which ended his sophomore pro campaign much earlier than he had hoped.
Subban spent most of last season with the Bruins’ AHL affiliate in Providence, posting a 14-8-5 record in 27 appearances with a 2.46 GAA and a .911 SV%. The former first round pick (24th overall in 2012) will likely have to wait another year to contend for the backup job behind Tuukka Rask as the team signed Anton Khudobin, who played with Boston in 2012-13, early in free agency.
Other news and notes from the Atlantic Division:
- The Canadiens have decided not to retain the services of analytics consultant Matt Pfeffer, reports Sportsnet’s Eric Engels. The team will hire a replacement for that role instead. Pfeffer, 21, previously was employed by San Jose in the 2014-15 season.
- Panthers head coach Gerard Gallant isn’t worried about incorporating several new defensemen into their lineup, writes the Sun Sentinel’s Harvey Filakov. Florida, who won the Atlantic last season, have added Mark Pysyk and Keith Yandle via trade while signing Jason Demers on the second day of free agency. On the flip side, they’ve lost Erik Gudbranson, Brian Campbell, Dmitry Kulikov, and Willie Mitchell which is a lot of turnover for a division winning squad. Gallant also noted that he expects four or five youngsters to push for a roster spot in training camp. Here’s a look at the Panthers’ depth chart, courtesy of Roster Resource.