Poll: Toughest First-Round Opponent For Tampa Bay Lightning?
It’s been months since any team in the East other than the Tampa Bay Lightning was considered to have any real chance at the top seed in the conference. The Lightning have been one of the most dominant regular season teams in recent memory, locking up the President’s Trophy more than two weeks ago and joining the 60-win club earlier this week.
What has also been clear for some time is that Tampa would be destined to face the Boston Bruins or Toronto Maple Leafs in the second round of the playoffs, as their two divisional rivals have been near the top of the league standings for much of the year and always on a collision course to play each other in round one due to the NHL’s current playoff format. Yet, it’s easy to forget that the Lightning too have to win in the first round. Many have taken it as a foregone conclusion that Tampa would advance, but upsets occur in sports and the Lighting are as susceptible to a collapse as any heavy favorites that have fallen in the past.
So who has the best chance to knock off the regular season champs? Well, the defending Stanley Cup winners would have been an ideal match-up, but the Washington Capitals pulled out of range of a wild card finish earlier this week and clinched the top seed in the Metropolitan Division with a win on Thursday. The New York Islanders, with their suffocating defensive style and stellar goaltending, also would have been an intriguing opponent, but they have also assured themselves of a non-wildcard spot. Finally, the star-studded Pittsburgh Penguins would have made for a difficult and highly entertaining series with the Bolts, but a win on Thursday night guaranteed that they cannot finish any lower than seventh in the conference.
That leaves three potential opponents for Tampa Bay in round one: the Carolina Hurricanes, the Columbus Blue Jackets, and the Montreal Canadiens. Two of these three teams will make the playoffs – Carolina has clinched a playoff berth with a Thursday night victory – but only one will be lucky enough to land the second wild card spot and go up against the Lightning. Of these three, which one could pull off the eight seed upset?
The Hurricanes are on pace to finish seventh in the East and avoid Tampa and they cannot be caught by the Canadiens. However, if the the Blue Jackets pass by Carolina, the team would have to celebrate their first postseason in ten years by playing the Bolts. The ‘Canes could give the Lightning problems with their ability to suppress shots, as they are the only team in the conference that allows less than 29 shots per game on average. A defense corps that is among the deepest and most talented in the league makes offense a struggle for the opposition and the added bonus of consistent play in net explains why Carolina is eighth-best in the league in goals against per game. Despite the franchise’s lack of postseason experience of late, Justin Williams and Jordan Staal are also major assets when it comes to playing smart, tough playoff hockey. The main concern for the Hurricanes though is that they have not been as successful offensively as they have been defensively. Despite leading the league in shots per game, the team is 16th in goals for per game and 20th on the power play and they’ve lacked game-breaking scoring talent this season outside of Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen. It’s impossible to expect to shutout Tampa Bay, so if Carolina can’t find some secondary scoring they could struggle against the Bolts.
As of now, Columbus looks like the favorite to finish eighth and play Tampa. That might not be what GM Jarmo Kekalainen expected when he added Matt Duchene, Ryan Dzingel, and Adam McQuaid at the trade deadline, but those moves will certainly help anyway. The Blue Jackets franchise has never won a playoff series and doing so against this Lightning team would be a tall task. However, they have both considerable talent and a chip on their shoulder. Like Carolina, Columbus does not allow many shots nor many goals and additionally have the best penalty kill in the conference. Unlike Carolina, they also have a star goalie in Sergei Bobrovsky. The Jackets would need Bobrovksy to shake off past struggles in the postseason, but if he does the Vezina Trophy-winner could be a game-changer. Offensively, Columbus has had an up-and-down year but are currently 12th in goals for per game. Duchene and Dzingel are major additions to a forward unit that already included elite talent like Artemi Panarin and Cam Atkinson. Unfortunately, all of this ability up front has still not led to consistent offense nor has it cured a miserable power play. Failure to capitalize on opportunities could be the Achilles heel of this team.
Then there’s Montreal, who need some help to make the playoffs, but could make waves if they do. The Canadiens can only end up in the eighth seed, so it’s Tampa or bust. Montreal can never quite be counted out with Carey Price in net and Shea Weber on the blue line, but the question is whether the other pieces are there to pull off not one but four wins against the Bolts. To their credit, the Habs have been a very balanced, consistent team this season that is right in the middle of the pack when it comes to goals and shots for as well as goals and shots against. Their power play is dead last in the NHL, which is obviously not typical of a playoff team, but it’s hard to find many other holes in their game. The problem is that nothing jumps out as being good enough for a massive upset, either. If Max Domi and Tomas Tatar stay hot and Price stands on his head as usual, anything is possible, but the Canadiens have simply been a good team and anyone who beats the Lightning will need to be great. Can they step up?
What do you think? The standings might say Columbus is the most likely opponent for Tampa Bay at this point, but who would be the toughest match-up for the President’s Trophy winners?
Who Would Be The Toughest First-Round Opponent For The Tampa Bay Lightning?
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Columbus Blue Jackets 59% (531)
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Carolina Hurricanes 26% (234)
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Montreal Canadiens 15% (137)
Total votes: 902
Snapshots: Three Stars, Marlies, Byron
The NHL has released their three stars for last week, and Sergei Bobrovsky has taken the top spot after an incredible stretch. The goaltender went 4-0 and stopped 115 of 117 shots to push the Columbus Blue Jackets back into a playoff spot. While there is plenty of speculation over Bobrovsky’s future, he’s obviously committed to helping the Blue Jackets this season. The 30-year old goaltender will become an unrestricted free agent on July 1st.
Darcy Kuemper has been awarded the third star after he continued his excellent season in Arizona, but it’s Tyler Bertuzzi who may raise some eyebrows in the second spot. The Detroit Red Wings forward had ten points in four games last week and now has 44 on the season including an impressive 19 goals. Though the team may not have found much success in the standings this year, it’s been an incredible development year for players like Bertuzzi, Anthony Mantha and Andreas Athanasiou.
- With CHL and college seasons coming to an end several junior players will be heading to the AHL. Semyon Der-Arguchintsev is one of those players, assigned to the Toronto Marlies while the team has also signed Alex Basso, Zachary Bouthillier and Erik Brown to amateur tryouts. Der-Arguchintsev was the Maple Leafs`third-round pick in 2018 and had 46 points in 62 games for the Peterborough Petes this season. Other CHL players joining their AHL teams are Vladislav Kotkov (San Jose Barracuda) and Matthew Strome (Lehigh Valley Phantoms).
- The Montreal Canadiens welcomed back an important player today when Paul Byron made his return to practice. The speedy forward had missed two games after fighting MacKenzie Weegar but could make his return in an extremely important game against the Tampa Bay Lightning tomorrow. The Canadiens are sitting one point behind Carolina for the final wild card spot and may need to win out to qualify for the playoffs.
Paul Byron Resumes Skating
- Despite looking like he could be out for a while following a fight on Tuesday, Canadiens winger Paul Byron has resumed skating, reports TVA Sports’ Renaud Lavoie (Twitter link). As a result, he could be available for their next game on Tuesday assuming he gets the green light from team doctors. Montreal has struggled without Byron in the lineup this season and would certainly benefit from his presence as they look to make a late run at a playoff spot.
Wild Notes: Parise, Sturm, Schuldt
As we speak, the Minnesota Wild are playing what amounts to a must-win game against the Arizona Coyotes. Neither team is in a playoff position as of now, but it still represents a potential four-point shift in the Western Conference wild card race. The Coyotes currently sit in ninth place, three points back of the Colorado Avalanche for the final postseason berth. The Wild are in tenth place, just one point behind the ‘Yotes. A Minnesota regulation win would see them leapfrog Arizona to pull within two points of Colorado, but an Arizona regulation win would put Minnesota three points back of the nine seed and still four points back of the eight seed, which might be insurmountable with only three games remaining after today.
Hurting the chances of a much-needed Wild win today is the continued absence of star forward Zach Parise. Unfortunately, he may not be returning at all this season. Just prior to puck drop, beat writer Sarah McLellan reported that Parise would not be active for the game, which was not a great surprise, but added that head coach Bruce Boudreau has qualified Parise’s lower-body ailment as “significant”. While she writes that the team “hopes” he might play again this season, it seems far from certain. Parise has now missed four games in a row and with three games left his chances to return are running out. A loss today would substantially lower the odds of Parise being rushed back to action as well. The 34-year-old has enjoyed a resurgence this season, leading the team with 26 goals and 59 points, but this is a disappointing end to an otherwise encouraging season for the veteran.
- The Athletic’s Michael Russo believes that the Wild are “pushing hard” for college free agent forward Nico Sturm. The Clarkson University captain is considered the top defensive forward in the NCAA and has improved offensively in each of his four collegiate seasons as well. The concern with Sturm is that the 23-year-old may have already peaked in his development and could project as nothing more than a fourth-liner at the NHL level. However, with good size and a mature game, Sturm does have the added benefit of being able to contribute right away, even if not on the score sheet. In fact, Russo writes that if Sturm lands in Minnesota, he is likely to join the Wild right away and burn a year off his entry-level contract.
- There has been plenty of speculation as to where St. Cloud State University defenseman Jimmy Schuldt might end up and the rumor mill has only heated up since the Huskies were unceremoniously upset for the second straight year in their first game of the NCAA Tournament. At one point, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Schuldt would follow teammate Ryan Poehling to the Montreal Canadiens, but those whispers have subsided and many other contenders have entered the fray. Count the Wild as one such interested club. The Athletic’s Jake Jensen writes that Minnesota is at least “in the race” for Schuldt, alongside the L.A. Kings and Vegas Golden Knights. Potentially the best undrafted defender in college hockey this season, Schuldt will be a nice prize for whichever team he decides to join.
Montreal Canadiens Sign Goaltender Cayden Primeau
The Montreal Canadiens continue a busy day by signing yet another top prospect who could turn into a franchise cornerstone. After inking first-round forward Ryan Poehling to an entry-level contract earlier, the Canadiens have done the same with top goalie prospect Cayden Primeau. The team has officially announced a three-year ELC for Primeau beginning in the 2019-20 season. The early upset losses for St. Cloud State University and Northeastern University have been to Montreal’s gain, as Poehling will join the Canadiens immediately and Primeau will get his first taste of the pro game on an amateur tryout with the AHL’s Laval Rocket to end the season.
Primeau, still just 19 years old, has come a long way in just two years since being drafted. A seventh-round pick in 2017, Primeau was known more for his lineage than his talent as the son of former NHLer Keith Primeau. Primeau’s numbers in the USHL had been good but not great and heading to Northeastern for his freshman season was expected to be the backup to incumbent Ryan Ruck. Instead, Primeau appeared in 34 of 38 games for the Huskies last year, posting a sub-2.00 GAA and .931 save percentage. Primeau was a Hockey East First-Team All-Star and Mike Richter Award finalist and helped his team win the Hockey East Tournament. If that sounds familiar, it’s because he accomplished all three of those feats again this season, recording a .933 save percentage and 2.09 GAA in 36 games. Primeau also starred for Team USA at the World Junior Championships this year, earning the starting role over fellow top prospects Kyle Keyser (BOS) and Spencer Knight (2019). Primeau – and Poehling – led the Americans to a silver medal at the tournament, with Primeau posting an immaculate 1.61 GAA and .936 save percentage.
After two outstanding years at Northeastern and a stellar World Junior performance, there was great speculation that Primeau would turn pro despite his young age for a goaltender. For all of his amateur accomplishments, there is still plenty of work to be done for Primeau at the pro level. Fortunately, he has plenty of time and faces little pressure; the Canadiens current keeper isn’t going anywhere any time soon. Carey Price, who will be 32 before next season, is nevertheless signed for seven more years at a $10.5MM AAV. Primeau could find himself as third-string behind Price and Charlie Lindgren as early as next season, but the Habs have no expectations that he will be the starter any time soon. Primeau can take his time and develop in the AHL and maybe could become Price’s backup at some point during his entry-level contract. But with an all-world starter ahead of him, Primeau is still years away from the pressure of a top NHL role and that’s alright for a talented, young goalie.
Eastern Notes: Fritz, Crawford, Daccord, Byron, Strome
The New York Islanders have lost some depth as forward Tanner Fritz is expected to miss six to eight weeks after undergoing surgery to repair a blood clot in his hand, according to NHL.com’s Cory Wright.
He had a little bit of a blood clot between two fingers, so they had to do some surgery and he’ll be out six to eight weeks. The operation was 100% successful. It’s just the nature of the type of procedure that was done, that it’ll take that bit of time. He’s fine. It’s unfortunate for Tanner, who came in and did so well, but as I said, he’ll be fully recovered.”
While the 27-year-old Fritz has only appeared in eight games for the Islanders this season, he was recalled on March 21st after veteran Valtteri Filppula was injured, giving Fritz the opportunity to play in the team’s last three games. Fritz was averaging only 10:49 of ice time with the Isles, but has been solid with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers of the AHL where he has 12 goals and 37 points in 57 games. As for Filppula, head coach Barry Trotz said that he has been skating, but there is still no timetable for his return.
- Expect Ottawa Senators interim coach Marc Crawford to be a serious candidate for the team’s head coaching position, according to Ottawa Sun’s Bruce Garrioch. While general manager Pierre Dorion has a list of many candidates, the team won’t allow their search for a president of hockey operations to interfere with their hunt for a head coach. Crawford deserves consideration for that position as he has made a difference on the Senators’ young squad. Belleville head coach Troy Mann is another serious candidate for the Senators’ coaching vacancy.
- Garrioch reports that Dorion and goaltending coach Pierre Groulx watched Arizona State goaltender Joey Daccord Saturday and are expected to try to sign the collegiate goaltender. Daccord had a breakout year with Arizona State as the junior put up 21 wins, a 2.36 GAA and a .926 save percentage. He was the team’s seventh-round pick in the 2015 draft.
- TVA’s Renaud Lavoie reports that Montreal Canadiens forward Paul Byron, who has missed two games with an upper-body injury, was back on the ice Sunday, but still needs to pass some tests before he is cleared to play. The 29-year-old Byron has 15 goals and 30 points in 54 games and could be available to play for Montreal on Tuesday if all goes well.
- The Lehigh Valley Phantoms, the AHL affiliate of the Philadelphia Flyers, announced that prospect Matthew Strome has been reassigned from his OHL team, whose season recently ended. Strome, the team’s fourth-round pick in the 2017 draft, just wrapped up his fourth year with the Hamilton Bulldogs, posting 28 goals and 79 points. He signed his entry-level contract in March of 2018 and will finish out the season with the Phantoms.
Montreal Canadiens Sign Ryan Poehling To Entry-Level Deal
Montreal Canadiens general manager Marc Bergevin has announced that the team has signed center Ryan Poehling to a three-year, entry-level deal. The Canadiens’ 2017 first-round pick, who has played the last three seasons with St. Cloud State University, is expected to join the team immediately.
Poehling will begin his three-year deal this season as the team will burn the first year of his contract, but he will remain exempt from the upcoming Seattle expansion draft as he would need to play in 11 games to earn a pro season towards expansion eligibility. Known for being an offensive catalyst who is exceptional at play-making, the 20-year-old has scored 29 goals and 46 assists in three years at St. Cloud State. While his junior year numbers don’t stand out (eight goals, 31 points in 36 games), Poehling is considered to be a top prospect, who just has struggled this season with his shooting percentage, despite putting up more shots as well as more quality shots on goal this season.
The 6-foot-2, 200-pound forward also saw some international time as he was named the tournament MVP of the 2019 World Junior Championship for Team USA, showing off his offensive prowess. This included leading an impressive third period comeback in a preliminary game against Sweden, when he scored a natural hat trick in the second half of the period to tie the game. In the end, he tallied five goals and eight points in seven games. It was the second time Poehling played in the World Juniors as he also suited up for the 2018 team as well.
Northeastern’s Cayden Primeau Expected To Sign ELC With Canadiens
With the elimination of Northeastern University, there could be a number of interesting prospects who could go pro within hours of the team’s loss. Sportsnet’s Eric Engels reports that goaltending prospect Cayden Primeau will be one of those turning pro and will sign an entry-level contract with the Montreal Canadiens in the coming days. He is expected to join the Laval Rocket of the AHL to finish out their season.
Primeau, the team’s seventh-round pick in 2017, has been lights out in two years with the Huskies. He finished his sophomore campaign with a 25-9-1 record with a 2.00 GAA and a .933 save percentage, almost equaling his freshman year when he surprised quite a few people, posting a 19-8-5 record with a 1.92 GAA and a .931 save percentage, which ranked fourth in the NCAA that year. He also won Hockey East’s Goaltender of the Year.
The 6-foot-4, 200-pound has a knack for taking space away from shooters and with that big frame has the ability to control rebounds and avoid second chances. While he is not considered to be an elite-level goaltender, Primeau should provide the Canadiens with a legitimate prospect, who for the moment should provide some depth to a Laval team that already has Charlie Lindgren and Michael McNiven on the roster.
Snapshots: Lehtera, Red Wings, Byron
Philadelphia Flyers forward Jori Lehtera was convicted Wednesday of buying cocaine, according to Tricia L. Nadolny and Sam Carchidi of the Philadelphia Inquirer. Lehtera had been charged in Finland with the offense earlier this season, and has been sentenced to a four-month suspended prison sentence. He will not serve any time in jail as long as he is not arrested again before October 2021.
The Flyers placed Lehtera on waivers in early February and sent him to the AHL where he has played five games. His contract is set to expire at the end of this season, at which point he will become an unrestricted free agent. It is not clear what this conviction will mean for his playing career, though early reports out of Finland say he will be appealing the decision.
- The Detroit Red Wings likely won’t see either of Michael Rasmussen or Jacob de La Rose on the ice again this season. Head coach Jeff Blashill told reporters including Ansar Khan of MLive that de La Rose saw a specialist today about his accelerated heart beat, and Rasmussen is unlikely to return from his upper-body injury before the end of the year. The Red Wings have just six games left in their season and are currently sitting in 29th place in the NHL.
- Paul Byron will not travel with the Montreal Canadiens to Columbus after suffering an injury in a fight last night. Byron took on MacKenzie Weegar of the Florida Panthers and was knocked down with a hard punch. After stumbling to the bench he did not return. Byron’s agent told Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic (subscription required) his thoughts on how fights like these have no business in the game today, explaining that the only reason for it was a hit from earlier in the season. Byron received a three-game suspension for the hit in January. It is unclear when the speedy forward will return to the Montreal lineup.
Eastern Notes: Buchnevich, Kreider, Johansson, Krug, Tavares
No one really knows what the plans are of general manager Jeff Gorton and the New York Rangers. The team could continue quietly rebuilding this summer or accelerate that process and bring in a big-name free-agent or two. Regardless, many of the team’s decisions will depend on what their overall plans are.
That will certainly be the case in how the Rangers intend to deal restricted free agent Pavel Buchnevich. While the 23-year-old hasn’t been as impressive this season as last point-wise, Buchnevich has scored a career-high 18 goals and with his entry-level contract ending, is in line for a significant raise. With quality restricted free agents getting more and more money on their next contracts, Buchnevich could be an interesting case.
The Athletic’s Shayna Goldman (subscription required) writes that much will have to do with the Rangers’ plans. If the team intends to make a significant splash in free agency, going after an Artemi Panarin-type of player, the team might be better served locking him up to a long-term extension to keep his salary down. However, if the team intends to quietly go one more year into its rebuild, then the team would have ample cap room to sign him to a shorter-term contract until they know what they have in him.
- The Rangers announced that forward Chris Kreider will be out Monday and remains day-to-day with a lower-body injury. He has been out since Tuesday. Kreider has been a key asset to the team’s offense as he has 26 goals this season.
- The Boston Bruins received some good news as the Boston Globe’s Matt Porter reports that Marcus Johansson, who has been out of the lineup since Mar. 5 with a lung contusion after colliding with Carolina’s Micheal Ferland, is back on the ice. He is in a gold non-contact sweater, suggesting that he hasn’t been cleared for contact. The 28-year-old was acquired by the Bruins in a trade deadline acquisition, but has appeared in just four games for Boston, registering only an assist. Porter also notes that Torey Krug is also wearing a non-contact jersey at practice today. Krug has been out since Mar. 12 with a concussion.
- The Toronto Maple Leafs caught a break after John Tavares took a tough cross-check from the New York Rangers’ Marc Staal, as the star center was at practice today, according to TSN’s Kristen Shilton. The Maple Leafs have lost five of their last seven after falling in overtime to the struggling Rangers.