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PHR Playoff Primer: Dallas Stars vs. Minnesota Wild

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With the start of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs just a few days away, PHR makes its first foray into playoff series analysis with our 2023 Playoff Primers. Where does each team stand in their series, and what storylines could dominate on and off the ice? We continue our look with the Central Division matchup between the Dallas Stars and Minnesota Wild.

For the second time in their history, these two franchises linked at the hip will face each other in a first-round matchup. After losing in six games to the Stars in 2016, the shorthanded Wild are once again tasked with attempting to knock out the team that preceded them in the hockey capital of the United States.

Dallas has enjoyed their first 100-point season since defeating the Wild in 2016, while the Wild maintained their grip on a divisional playoff spot despite the absence of Kirill Kaprizov for much of the season’s last few weeks. Now likely without another important piece in Joel Eriksson Ek to start the series, though, Minnesota will need to continue their next-player-up mentality to avoid their seventh straight first-round loss.

Regular Season Performance

Dallas: 47-21-14, 108 points, +67 goal differential
Minnesota: 46-25-11, 103 points, +21 goal differential

Head-To-Head

December 4, 2022: Minnesota 6, Dallas 5 (SO)
December 29, 2022: Dallas 4, Minnesota 1
February 8, 2023: Minnesota 1, Dallas 4
February 17, 2023: Dallas 1, Minnesota 2 (SO)

Season series tied 2-2

Team Storylines

These two teams present an interesting matchup for an unusual reason: each team’s two biggest strengths may just cancel each other out.

Jason Robertson’s season needs no introduction. Not only did his 109 points finish tied for sixth in the NHL, but they also blew past Mike Modano’s Dallas single-season record of 93, set back in 1993-94, the team’s first year in Texas.

Unfortunately, he’s matched up against Kaprizov, who nabbed the Calder Trophy away from Robertson in 2021. Despite missing 15 games, Kaprizov potted 40 goals for a second straight season and played over 21 minutes per game.

Where Dallas pulls away in this matchup, at least on offense, is their center depth, especially with Eriksson Ek’s injury concerns. While the Wild cornerstone center is progressing faster than anticipated in his return from a lower-body injury, Dallas’ lineup down the middle of Roope Hintz, Max Domi (or Tyler Seguin), rookie Wyatt Johnston, and potential Selke contender Radek Faksa could prove tough matchups for Minnesota’s lacking center core.

The x-factor in Eriksson Ek’s absence will undoubtedly be Ryan Hartman, who’s still a top-six player but not the 34-goal scorer we saw last season. After putting up five assists in six playoff games against St. Louis last season, they’ll need similar playoff production from him between Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello to round out their depth.

Both teams also boast some of the best young goalies in the league, but they carry different degrees of certainty. Dallas knows what they’re getting in the postseason with 24-year-old Jake Oettinger, who nearly had one of the most incredible series steals in NHL history against Calgary last year with a .954 save percentage in a seven-game loss.

For the Wild, Filip Gustavsson, also 24, finished near the top of NHL leaderboards with a .931 save percentage and 2.10 goals-against average, albeit with only 37 starts compared to Oettinger’s 61. That’s because the battle-tested Marc-Andre Fleury remains an option for Minnesota after recording a .906 save percentage and a 2-3 record in five games against St. Louis last season.

Both teams boast stingy defenses, although Dallas’ actual results this season overpower that of Minnesota’s reputation. That’s not to discredit how well the Wild limited chances against this season — however, Dallas finished second in the NHL in expected goals against, per MoneyPuck, behind only the Carolina Hurricanes. If Dallas can impose their system against an already somewhat goal-starved Wild team, it could be another early exit for Minnesota.

Prediction

The Minnesota Wild are a good hockey team with distinct strengths. However, the Stars don’t provide an advantageous stylistic matchup for Minnesota’s first series win in eight years.

Dallas has had a better season at both ends of the puck and boasts the goalie with stronger recent playoff experience and more stamina as a starter. None of this includes the track record of first-year head coach Peter DeBoer, notorious for making deep playoff runs in his first seasons with a team.

Both teams play structured games, though, and it shouldn’t be a quick out for the Wild by any means. Dallas has the necessary advantages to pull out a series win, though, as they look to return to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in four years.

The prediction: Dallas wins in six games.

Latest On John Klingberg, Joel Eriksson Ek

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  • Per Sarah McLellan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune, Minnesota Wild defenseman John Klingberg didn’t practice today after suffering a lower-body injury at practice yesterday. Wild head coach Dean Evason termed Klingberg’s status as “we’ll see” for this team’s first playoff game against the Dallas Stars, meaning it’s possible the Wild are without the skilled offensive defenseman to start their series. Klingberg has in the past been a prolific playoff performer (he scored nine points in 13 playoff games in 2018-19 and 21 points in the Stars’ 26-game run to the Stanley Cup Final in 2019-20) so the Wild will hope he’ll be able to draw into their lineup relatively soon.
  • McLellan also reported an update on Wild center Joel Eriksson Ek, who is one of Minnesota’s top pivots and a crucial two-way contributor. He skated again today, and will travel with the team to Dallas. Eriksson-Ek last played on April 6th, and was designated as week-to-week, so while it remains relatively unlikely that he’s going to be immediately ready to join the Wild for playoff games, the fact that he is consistently skating and now travelling with the team should be viewed as a good sign for his availability.

Wild Notes: Johansson, Eriksson Ek, Sundqvist, Petan

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The Wild are hopeful that winger Marcus Johansson will be available for the start of their first-round series against Dallas, relays Sarah McLellan of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune.  The veteran was injured earlier in the week on a cross-check from Winnipeg blueliner Neal Pionk but head coach Dean Evason indicated that while the 32-year-old is sore, nothing is broken.  Johansson’s second stint with Minnesota has been quite successful as he had six goals and 12 assists in 20 games after being acquired from Washington just before the trade deadline.  He returned to practice with the team today which is a positive sign for him being able to suit up on Monday.

More from Minnesota:

  • Center Joel Eriksson Ek skated before practice today as he works his way back from a lower-body injury, notes Joe Smith of The Athletic (Twitter link). The 26-year-old has missed a little over a week since suffering the injury against Pittsburgh.  Eriksson Ek was given a week-to-week designation so it seems unlikely that he’ll be ready for Monday’s season opener.  His absence is a significant one as not only is he their matchup center against top opponents but he also finished fourth in team scoring, surpassing the 60-point mark for the first time in his career.
  • Forward Oskar Sundqvist also skated today for the first time since suffering also a lower-body injury against Pittsburgh last week, reports Michael Russo of The Athletic (Twitter link). The 29-year-old was acquired from Detroit at the trade deadline and had made a good first impression with Minnesota, collecting three goals and four assists in 15 games before the injury.  It’s unclear at this point if he’ll be good to go to start the series against Dallas but he has not yet been ruled out for Game One.
  • The team announced (Twitter link) that winger Nic Petan cleared waivers today, enabling them to return him to AHL Iowa. Petan played his tenth game of the season Thursday, meaning that he had to pass through waivers to get back to the minors.  The 28-year-old has had another strong season at the AHL level, tallying 60 points in 51 games heading into the final weekend.

Minnesota Wild Reassign Marco Rossi, Three Others And Waive Nick Petan

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  • The Chicago Blackhawks reassigned forwards Buddy Robinson and Joey Anderson to their affiliate, the Rockford IceHogs. The IceHogs are in pole position to claim the final playoff spot in the Central Division and can still feasibly catch the Iowa Wild for the number-four seed. Robinson, 31, is coming off an impressive two-game stretch with the Blackhawks where he scored three points, including his first goal of the year in Tuesday’s stunning 4-1 win over the Pittsburgh Penguins. Anderson, 24, was acquired from the Toronto Maple Leafs in the Jake McCabe trade and scored six points in 24 games with Chicago.
  • The Minnesota Wild reassigned Samuel Walker, Damien Giroux, Nick Swaney, and Marco Rossi to their affiliate, the Iowa Wild, and placed veteran forward Nic Petan on waivers for the purpose of reassignment. The biggest name here is Rossi, 21, the 9th overall pick at the 2020 draft who has 50 points in 51 games.

Minnesota Wild Sign Frederick Gaudreau To Extension

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The Minnesota Wild announced that they’ve taken care of some offseason business early as they have inked forward Frederick Gaudreau to a five year $10.5MM extension. Gaudreau was set to become an unrestricted free agent on July 1st, but his extension will keep him with the Wild for the next five seasons.

Gaudreau originally signed a two year $2.4MM contract with the Wild in July 2021 after spending a single season with the Pittsburgh Penguins. While that contract carried some risk, it turned out to be an absolute bargain for Minnesota. The 29-year-old has put up 80 points in 157 games for Minnesota and added some cheap depth scoring.

Minnesota has been hamstrung by the buyouts of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter. The veterans buyout will account for nearly $15MM of the Wild’s salary cap space next year. Despite the cap issues, GM Bill Guerin has been able to bargain shop on multiple occasions and hit more often than he misses.  Even more impressive for Guerin is that he’s been able to build a competitive team without cap space and while also not mortgaging the future. Minnesota has all their first and second round draft picks for the near future.

While getting the Gaudreau contract done early is a tidy piece of business for the Wild, they do have some other pending free agents who will be much more difficult to extend and just $6.8MM in cap space to do it. John Klingberg, Matt Dumba, Gustav Nyquist and Oskar Sundqvist are all unrestricted, while defenseman Calen Addison and goaltender Filip Gustavsson are restricted free agents. Minnesota will likely have to make some tough decisions this summer, but with one of the best farm systems in the NHL, they should be able to remain competitive while getting younger and cheaper.

Minnesota Wild Recall Damien Giroux

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The Minnesota Wild are locked into the third spot in the Central Division, unable to catch Dallas or Colorado and too far ahead of Winnipeg to worry about what happens into tonight’s regular season finale. With that in mind, the team is preparing to play quite a different lineup than the one that will open the playoffs.

As Michael Russo of The Athletic reports, Kirill Kaprizov, Jonas Brodin, Jared Spurgeon, Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello, Marcus Johansson, and Sam Steel will all sit out, while Joel Eriksson Ek and Oskar Sundqvist remain sidelined by injury. Ryan Hartman will also miss the game after being suspended.

That means the opportunity is available for some young players, and they’ve recalled Damien Giroux to take advantage. He and Nick Swaney will make their NHL debuts, while Calen Addison will play on their wing as the team ices just 11 natural forwards.

Giroux, 23, was a fifth-round pick of the Wild in 2018 and brings very little offensive upside to the ice. He has just three goals in 65 AHL games this season, but has still managed to wiggle his way into a call-up through hard work.

Neither he or Swaney are expected to suit up in the NHL playoffs, though they will get a nice reward with some extra pay and a chance to debut at the highest level.

Ryan Hartman Suspended One Game

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2:13 pm: Hartman has been suspended for one game as a result of the play, NHL Player Safety announced Wednesday afternoon.

9:07 am: The NHL’s Department of Player Safety announced that Minnesota Wild forward Ryan Hartman will face a hearing today for interference against Winnipeg Jets forward Nikolaj Ehlers during last night’s game.

The incident occurred with 8:30 left in a contentious game between the Central Division rivals. Hartman received two minor penalties on the hit, one for interference on Ehlers and one for roughing after the play. He laid an open-ice check on Ehlers after playing the puck, with Ehlers leaving the ice surface holding the back of his head. He did not return to the game.

This isn’t Hartman’s first time in hot water with the Department of Player Safety. The 28-year-old forward has been suspended once before, for a high hit in 2018 when he was playing for the Nashville Predators.

The Wild have nothing left to play for this season with one game remaining. A regulation loss last night and a Colorado overtime loss locked them into third place in the Central.

Still, a potential Hartman absence from the lineup harms the Wild at their most vulnerable position. With Joel Eriksson Ek already sidelined week-to-week and not expected to be ready for the beginning of the playoffs, the team could be involuntarily without their top two centers for their final game of the season against Nashville on Thursday.

Minnesota Wild To Recall Sammy Walker, Nick Swaney

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The Minnesota Wild have recalled forwards Sammy Walker and Nick Swaney from AHL Iowa ahead of their final game of the regular season against the Nashville Predators tomorrow, The Athletic’s Michael Russo reports.

Minnesota could square off against Nashville without the services of three forwards who dressed for last night’s game against Winnipeg: Marcus Johansson, Ryan Hartman, and Sam Steel. Johansson’s status for Thursday is questionable after sustaining an upper-body injury on a cross-check from Jets defenseman Neal Pionk, while Steel left the game in the second period with an undisclosed illness. Meanwhile, Hartman is facing a suspension today for a hit on Jets forward Nikolaj Ehlers.

Hence the recalls, which could yield an NHL debut for Swaney, 25, in the team’s last game of the 2022-23 regular season. Born in Lakeville, Minn., Swaney was a 2017 seventh-round pick of the Wild and won back-to-back NCAA championships with the University of Minnesota-Duluth Bulldogs in 2018 and 2019. In just over two seasons of play in Iowa since, Swaney’s recorded 33 goals, 35 assists, and 68 points in 114 games.

This is a familiar refrain for Walker, though, who’s now earned the fourth recall of his rookie season. The 23-year-old free agent signing out of the University of Minnesota has a goal in eight appearances with the NHL Wild this year while also leading the AHL Wild in goals with 26.

Neal Pionk Avoids Suspension, Earns Fine For Cross-Checking

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Winnipeg Jets defenseman Neal Pionk has been fined $5,000 for cross-checking Minnesota Wild forward Marcus Johansson during a heated game between the two teams last night, the NHL Department of Player Safety said Wednesday morning. This is the maximum allowable fine under the Collective Bargaining Agreement.

The incident occurred late in the third period of the game, which the Jets won 3-1. Pionk received a major penalty for cross-checking Johansson, but the league felt that the infraction deserved further punishment.

Johansson was in obvious discomfort after the play, which caused him to fall to the ice. His injury status is currently unknown.

The game between the Jets and the Wild was a physical affair, with other incidents drawing the attention of the league. Wild forward Ryan Hartman is facing a potential suspension for a hit on Jets forward Nikolaj Ehlers, which occurred earlier in the game. The league is expected to make a ruling on Hartman’s status later today.

The decision to hold a hearing for one incident but not the other is sure to draw ire from some. Both incidents had some perceived level of intent, depending on who you ask, and both resulted in potential injuries to the opposing players.

Minnesota Wild Recall Marco Rossi

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The Minnesota Wild have recalled forwards Marco Rossi and Nic Petan from their AHL affiliate, the Iowa Wild, according to a team announcement.

These recalls come as the Wild are dealing with a major injury suffered by their most accomplished center, Joel Eriksson Ek. With Eriksson Ek out of the picture leading into the team’s playoff series next week, the Wild are exploring options to fill spots down the middle in their lineup, and Rossi is the Wild’s best center prospect.

Petan, on the other hand, is no longer a prospect, but instead a 28-year-old top-scoring AHLer. Petan leads the Wild’s AHL affiliate in scoring with 60 points in 51 games this year, and perhaps this recall is a reward for the strong play he has delivered in Iowa.

As for Rossi, the 21-year-old 2020 first-round pick saw his developmental trajectory significantly disrupted when he was diagnosed with myocarditis, a heart condition that forced him off the ice for a time. More details on Rossi’s health battle can be found in a story by The Athletic’s Michael Russo. (subscription link) Despite the fact that Rossi has not yet found success at the NHL level, what he has achieved at the AHL level and his return to hockey overall represents a major athletic accomplishment.

This season, Rossi has been a difference-maker for the AHL’s Wild, scoring 50 points in 51 games. In total, he has 103 points in 114 career contests. While he has just one point in 18 career NHL contests, the Wild are planning on Rossi becoming a top-six forward and someone they can rely on into the future.

With this recall, Rossi now has the opportunity to enter the Wild lineup and finally prove himself as an NHLer at a crucial point in Minnesota’s season. Ryan Hartman and Frederick Gaudreau are currently Minnesota’s top two NHL centers, and while they have each scored 36 points this season and are quality pivots, they’re hardly the type of dynamic, star-level centers that typically headline Stanley Cup-winning teams.

The Wild have had a strong season and have dreams that captain Jared Spurgeon will be lifting the Stanley Cup later this year. While Rossi hasn’t yet shown it on NHL ice, his AHL form lends to the idea that he could finally become the type of center the Wild have been missing for years. And if he can become that player just in time for Minnesota’s playoff run, perhaps that Stanley Cup dream could get a little bit closer to reality.

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