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PHR Originals: 3/27/17 – 4/1/17

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Pro Hockey Rumors had a number of original articles this week as the regular season winds down and the playoffs beckon. Here are a few from the past week:

  • Brett analyzed the Edmonton Oilers’ first line dominance and how it has played a tremendous role in the success of the team this season.  While the Oilers’ renaissance certainly got its jumpstart from Connor McDavid, it’s the play of others who have certainly helped the team reach the playoffs for the first time in 11 years.
  • Meanwhile, I took a closer look at the rebuild situation that the Red Wings are facing and some concerning elements that have arisen over the past few years that GM Ken Holland will have to navigate.
  • Gavin highlighted the surprising yet impressive performance by Patrick Eaves, who has notched 29 goals this season between the Dallas Stars and Anaheim Ducks. He also notes that no one in the hockey world–including your humble writers here at PHR–saw this performance coming. In addition to Eaves, Gavin wrote about Toby Enstrom and how after going through a season ending knee surgery, it may be in the Jets best interest to find a way to have him waive his no movement clause.
  • Finally, Gavin also answered many of your questions during a live chat. In addition to providing sound hockey analysis, he’s also open to fantasy baseball advice for replacing Jeurys Familia.

Edmonton’s First Line Dominance

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With a win this evening, the Edmonton Oilers could move into first place in the Pacific Division. Hands up if you saw this coming back in October.

The Oilers haven’t really had trouble scoring goals over the past few years, but with players like Nikita Nikitin and Andrew Ference playing top-four minutes, and Ben Scrivens and Viktor Fasth in the crease, the team didn’t have a chance at a winning record. With the additions of Adam Larsson, Andrej Sekera, and Kris Russell and the emergence of Oscar Klefbom and Cam Talbot, the Oilers finally have a solid back end. While Larsson cost them one of the best left wingers in the NHL in Taylor Hall, the Oilers offence isn’t hurting.

Connor McDavid, Patrick Maroon, and Leon Draisaitl have formed one of the most dangerous lines in hockey. McDavid is leading the NHL in scoring with 91 points in 77 games, Draisaitl is currently tenth with 72 in 77, and Maroon has more than double his previous career-high with 27 goals and 41 points.

While McDavid and Draisaitl’s dominance isn’t altogether unexpected, Maroon’s career-year is. The 20-year-old McDavid is the arguably the best player in the NHL and Draisaitl was the third-overall pick in 2014. But Maroon is a bit of a different case; he was a sixth-round pick back in 2007.

After two up-and-down years in Anaheim with 29 and 34 points and a good playoffs in 2015, Maroon fell to the Ducks’ fourth line. He was dealt to Edmonton at last year’s trade deadline for minor-league defenseman Martin Gernát and a fourth-round pick, with the Ducks retaining 25 per cent of Maroon’s $2MM salary. After just 13 points in 56 games with Anaheim, Maroon scored 14 points in 16 games with Edmonton. The big winger was challenged by the organization to get into better shape, with ice-time alongside McDavid used as a carrot. Maroon lost 25 pounds in the off-season, and quickly played his way onto McDavid’s wing. Even when he’s not scoring, he does other things to help. TSN’s Jamie McLennan pointed to Maroon’s nine fights and physical play, complimenting him for “bringing something else to the table.” He’s been a feel-good story and is the Oilers’ nominee for the Masterton Trophy for dedication to hockey.

McDavid and Draisaitl are both on nine-game point streaks, with 16 points apiece in those nine games. Add in Maroon’s nine points in those nine games and their top line has 41 points in the last nine games. The Oilers are 8-1-0 in those nine games, clinching a playoff spot for the first time since 2005-06 with their sights set on 100 points and the Pacific Division title.

College Notes: Jost, Foo, Vecchione

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In the latest ’30 Thoughts’ column from Elliotte Friedman of Sportsnet there are several interesting tidbits about some college players that have been eliminated from the NCAA tournament in the past few days. One of the most notable is Tyson Jost, the Colorado Avalanche prospect and 10th-overall pick from last summer. Friedman says that it’s tough to read the situation on Jost after his freshman season at North Dakota, and mentions there is still the possibility of him returning for a second year.

Jost had an incredible year, scoring 38 points in 35 games for UND while also starring for Team Canada at the World Juniors. The former BCHL superstar turned 19 less than two weeks ago, and would benefit from another year in the NCAA and a run at the Hobey Baker trophy. There is no rush for Colorado, who won’t be competing next season but consider Jost one of their untouchables going forward.

  • Friedman also touches on Mike Vecchione, the Union College star who is a free agent and can sign anywhere. Reports indicate that he’ll make a decision within the next 24 hours. On Monday it came out that Philadelphia was pushing hard for the 24-year old, though it’s not clear if they are still in the running today. The offensive dynamo tied for the leading point-scorer in the nation, and is a finalist for the Hobey Baker this season.
  • Spencer Foo, a teammate of Vecchione at Union, has told teams he won’t play pro hockey this season. That doesn’t mean that he’s definitely going back to school though, and LA Kings Insider Dan Rosen has heard that basically the entire league is interested in him. As Rosen notes at the end of his piece, Foo was an Edmonton Oilers fan growing up and Friedman notes that there is a lot of interest from the Canadian NHL clubs. The winger scored 62 points in 38 games this season and is another Hobey Baker finalist.
  • Rosen goes on to report that Steven Johnson, a Los Angeles Kings draft pick from 2014 will head back to school at the University of Minnesota for his senior year. The Kings will have just a few months to sign him after next season if they so choose, but he’ll have to take another step forward to earn an entry-level contract after graduation. Right now his entire game still needs polish and he’ll hopefully have the chance to step into a bigger role now that Jake Bischoff is off to the professional ranks.

Edmonton Oilers Sign Joseph Gambardella To Two-Year Contract

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The Edmonton Oilers have jumped into the NCAA free agent waters, signing Joseph Gambardella to a two-year, entry-level contract. The deal will start in 2017-18, a season in which Gambardella will turn 24. The undrafted forward has just finished his senior year at University of Massachusetts-Lowell and was a free agent.

While he was already 23 for much of the season, Gambardella really excelled in his final year, scoring 52 points in 41 games and led the River Hawks in scoring for the first time in his college career. The somewhat undersized forward has a relentless drive for the net and played most of the season alongside C.J. Smith, another undrafted scoring threat that might sign after next season. Gambardella is fearless in front of the net, battling for position against bigger players and often coming up with the puck.

Most of his scoring has come from within five feet of the net, winning rebounds and finding a way to bury the puck from incredibly difficult angles. Because he doesn’t have elite skill with the puck, he’ll need to continue to be that feisty net-front presence at the next level to find success. Because of that style, and his level of strength and balance, he could likely contribute to an NHL roster’s bottom-six within the next year. As long as he accepts a different role than the top scoring threat at even strength and on the powerplay, he could become a very productive professional.

Snapshots: Red Wings, Krejci, Marleau, Couture

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Detroit’s 25 year streak of reaching the playoffs is all but set to come to an end this season as the team sits dead last in the Eastern Conference.  While GM Ken Holland isn’t surprised that it hasn’t been smooth sailing for the Red Wings this season, he told Ted Kulfan of the Detroit News that he wasn’t expecting the team to struggle as much as they have:

“I expected more, I expected we’d be in the thick of things. I didn’t know if we’d be in the playoffs or not. When you look at the standings in our division and in the Eastern Conference, there a lot of teams, some of them are going to miss the playoffs by a point or two and some of them are going to get in by a point or two.”

Kulfan notes that free agency isn’t an avenue that Holland and the Wings are likely to pursue this summer.  Part of the problem is the weaker than usual free agent class while the team is also handcuffed by some above-market value contracts that the GM has handed out in recent years to players like Darren Helm, Danny DeKeyser, and several others.  As a result, they’ll have to hope to free up some cap room either via the trade or market or perhaps in expansion if the Golden Knights opt to take a pricey player off their hands.

Other notes from around the league:

  • Bruins center David Krejci left practice early on Monday and interim head coach Bruce Cassidy told CSN New England’s Joe Haggerty that he is dealing with an upper body injury. However, it’s not expected to keep him out of Boston’s lineup when they take on the Predators on Tuesday night.  If it turns out he’s unavailable, it’s expected that Ryan Spooner would jump in to fill his spot on the second line.
  • With Logan Couture out of the lineup, the Sharks will shift Patrick Marleau back to center for the time being, notes CSN Bay Area’s Kevin Kurz. Marleau is a natural center but has only played there four times this year as San Jose has opted to play him on the wing instead.  In a separate column, Kurz provided an update on Couture.  Head coach Peter DeBoer was pleased by how much the swelling went down today and while he will miss some time, it doesn’t appear that it will be a long-term injury.  There’s no timetable for a potential return date yet although the team is expected to further update his situation in the near future.

Snapshots: Crosby, World Championships, Oilers

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It was a controversial week for Sidney Crosby.

He appeared to slash Sabres forward Ryan O’Reilly in a sensitive area, then broke Senators defenseman Marc Methot’s finger in half with another whack. The latter incident resulted in a pretty ugly injury (NSFW) and some angry comments from Senators owner Eugene Melnyk.

Melnyk told TSN 1200 that the league needs to “hammer these [players who slash]… you say you know what? You are done for 10 games.  We all know who [Crosby] is. The guy is a whiner beyond belief. You do this kind of stuff—I don’t care who you are in the league, I don’t care if you’re the number one player in the league—you should sit out a long time for this kind of crap.”

The comments were criticized by fans and media; Mike Johnson called the comments “off base” and tweeted a video of Senators players slashing opponents. Senators captain Erik Karlsson defended Crosby by saying plays like that “happen all the time.”

Ahead of Sunday’s game versus Philadelphia, Crosby responded to Melnyk’s comments. After declining to comment, Crosby said “he likes to hear himself talk, so let’s leave it.”

Superstars like Crosby are often the target of those little “whacks”; small slashes that go uncalled. Earlier this season, Johnny Gaudreau missed 10 games after being whacked at least 20 times by different Wild players in the same game.

“I’d love to see them crack down on it,” said Crosby. “It’s something that happens a lot… Obviously [Methot is] an example where if you get it in the wrong spot, it can hurt. Hopefully he’s back out there soon.”

  • The USA Women’s National Team is boycotting the upcoming Women’s World Championships over a dispute with USA Hockey. The players are currently paid just $6K for the six months leading up to the Olympics, and nothing else. The players want fair wages and for USA Hockey to put more money into the program to grow the women’s game. USA Hockey has been asking (and being declined by) high school players to play in their stead. Now the Men’s Program may be getting involved. Player Agent Allan Walsh reported that American NHL players may refuse to play in this spring’s World Championships in solidarity; the NHLPA has already come out in support of the women. Last year, the American side finished fourth in the tournament, the rosters for which are populated by NHLers who are no longer in Cup contention and the occasional draft-eligible player.
  • After Leon Draisaitl cracked the 70-point barrier on Saturday night, the Edmonton Oilers will have two 70-point scorers (the other being Connor McDavid with 88 points) for the first time in 11 years. The last time they did, it was Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff with 77 and 73 points respectively in 2005-06. Incidentally, that’s the last time they made the playoffs. The Oilers have also surpassed 90 points for the first time since 05-06, and if they manage to finish first in their division (currently tied with San Jose and Anaheim for first), then it will mark the first division win since 1986-87.

David Pastrnak & Leon Draisaitl: The Next Contract

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The 2016 restricted free agent market was one of the most talented – and most entertaining – in recent memory. As hockey moves more and more toward youthful skill and speed, the dynamics of team building have changed as well, as last summer marked the “death of the bridge deal“. A multitude of massive extensions for young players were handed out, including giant new deals for forwards like Colorado’s Nathan MacKinnon, Winnipeg’s Mark Scheifele, Calgary duo Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau, and Florida pair Jonathan Huberdeau and Vincent Trocheck. The 2017 RFA group is no slouch either; it features star scorers such as Minnesota’s Mikael Granlund, Vancouver’s Bo Horvat, Nashville’s Ryan Johansen and Viktor Arvidsson, the Tampa Bay trio of Jonathan Drouin, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat and more.

Yet, the two most intriguing restricted free agents are the youngest of the group: 20-year-old Boston Bruins right winger David Pastrnak and 21-year-old Edmonton Oilers center Leon Draisaitl. Last summer opened the door for the game-changing pair to skip right over an affordable short-term deal that would keep them restricted into a third contract for the “prime” of their career. Now, Pastrnak and Draisaitl have the newly-minted industry standard option of asking for a six- to eight-year deal, lasting well into their late 20’s, worth somewhere in the range of $5-7MM annually. So what exactly will the new contracts look like this summer?

Pastrnak’s agent, J.P. Barry, is on the record as saying that his client is looking for a long-term deal and they are viewing the contracts of Monahan, Scheifele, and Filip Forsberg as comparisons. Forsberg signed a six-year, $36MM extension last June, worth $6MM annually, while Monahan re-signed for $6.375 per year for seven seasons and Sheifele agreed to $6.125MM a year for the maximum eight seasons. The only problem for Pastrnak and his representation in making those comparisons is the consistency argument. Pastrnak has an impressive 64 points through 68 games so far this season, much like Monahan’s 63 point total last year. However, Monahan also put up 62 points the year before and 34 as a rookie. He was only slightly older than Pastrnak when he agreed to an extension, but had far greater production in his first two seasons when compared to Pastrnak’s back-to-back mid-20’s performances. Scheifele also had a similar season to Pastrnak’s last year with 61 points in 71 games, but he too outperformed the young Czech the prior two seasons – and was two years older – when inking his eight-year mega deal. Like Monahan, Forsberg had consecutive 60+-point seasons before earning his new deal.

The Monahan, Scheifele, and Forsberg comparison works far better for Draisaitl. Now in his third NHL season, but still just 21, Draisaitl leads all impending RFA’s with 70 points on the year, following up his breakout 51-point campaign in 2015-16. With back-to-back strong seasons, like the previously described trio, Draisaitl should be comfortably within the $6-6.5MM annual range for his upcoming contract. The Oilers will have to keep in mind the possible record-setting deal awaiting them in Connor McDavid next year, but will not hesitate to pay Draisaitl, who is already one the best #2 centers in the NHL. While a very different player, Draisaitl’s early career arc closely resembles that of Gaudreau, and “Johnny Hockey” signed on for six more years in Calgary at $6.75 per, so don’t be surprised if Draisaitl actually ends up exceeding the $6-6.5MM annual range in his new deal or agrees to seven or eight years as compensation for a lower yearly value.

So what of Pastrnak? No one doubts that he will continue producing at a high level, especially with Boston’s top offensive stars like Brad Marchand, Patrice Bergeron, David Krejci, and David Backes signed long-term and in influx of promising talent on it’s way. However, with just one – albeit unbelievable – high-scoring season under his belt, Pastrnak may not be able to crack that $6MM per year mark. Some may point to MacKinnon, the youngest and arguably most talented RFA to re-sign last year, and say that Pastrnak should get the same seven-year contract worth $6.3MM annually. However, MacKinnon was a #1 overall pick and had established himself as a top-line center with a 63-point rookie season in 2013-14, far ahead of where Pastrnak was at that point, which cancels out some of his more recent struggles. Instead, a better comparison is likely Panthers scorers Trocheck and Huberdeau. Like Pastrnak, Trocheck and Huberdeau found only middling success in their first two NHL seasons. Trocheck had a big breakout last year, jumping to 53 points in 76 games, and was rewarded with a six-year deal worth $4.75MM per year. Huberdeau had his breakout in 2014-15 with 54 points and then backed it up 59 points last season, before inking a six-year extension worth $5.9MM annually. What Pastrnak has done this year clearly surpasses anything that the Florida duo have yet to put up and Trocheck and Huberdeau were also two years older than Pastrnak will be when they re-signed, but they set up a more accurate range for what the Bruins wunderkind should expect this summer. Taking likely cap inflation into consideration, Pastrnak is looking at a six-year extension worth $5-6MM per season. Given the Bruins recent issues with retaining young talent, it’s a fair assumption that they won’t play hardball with the young sniper, so expecting the upper side of that scale is perfectly reasonable.

Oilers Notes: Hart Trophy, Lander, Hall

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The Edmonton Oilers may have lost a big game to their division rivals in Anaheim last night, but it was a big night for their captain, Connor McDavid.

McDavid scored a goal and three points to increase his lead at the top of the scoring race. He now has 85 points in 73 games, which is four points more than Sidney Crosby has, albeit in 66 games. Brad Marchand and Patrick Kane each have 80 points in 73 games.

While he’s leading the scoring race, a bigger question is where he’s at in the MVP race. While Cam Talbot has been superb for the Oilers this season, there’s no question that McDavid is the main reason for the team’s rise up the standings. The Oilers surpassed last season’s win total in mid-February, and have improved their goal differential by 63 goals. They finished in 29th last season, and are currently sitting in a divisional playoff spot this season. The biggest difference between this year and last? McDavid is healthy and arguably tied with Crosby for the title of best player in the NHL. Winning the scoring race would clear things up; in the past five years, the Hart has gone to either the Art Ross or Rocket Richard winner four times.

If McDavid does end up winning the Hart Trophy for league MVP, he will be the first Oilers player to win a major award since Andrew Ference won the King Clancy Award for off-ice leadership in 2013-14. McDavid would be the first Oiler to win an award for on-ice play since 1989-90 when Mark Messier and Bill Ranford took home the Hart, Lindsay, and Conn Smythe.

  • Oilers minor-league centre Anton Lander has signed with Ak Bars Kazan of the KHL for next season, according to KHL insider Aivis Kalniņš. A former second-round, Lander has struggled at the NHL level with just 35 points in 215 games. His only sustained success was back in 2014-15, when he scored 20 points in 38 games. But in the AHL, Lander is dominant. He has 22 goals and 46 points in 31 games this season for the Bakersfield Condors. The deal will be announced after the AHL season ends, and will make Lander one of the highest-paid imports in the KHL according to Kalniņš. Back in October, we reported on the top KHL salaries, and the highest-paid import on the list was Stephane Da Costa who makes approximately $1.3MM USD. That range would be a nice raise over Lander’s current contract which pays him $990K. It seems unlikely that the Oilers will tender Lander a qualifying offer in the spring.
  • Taylor Hall may not be in Edmonton anymore, but he can’t escape the questions about his former team. Hall was asked today if he would watch and cheer for the Oilers in the playoffs. His answer? “No.” After six bottom-ten finishes with the Oilers, Hall once again finds himself at the bottom of the standings with the Devils while his former team is going to make the playoffs. Sportsnet’s Luke Fox quoted Hall as saying the situation has “a weird dynamic. You’re happy for your friends, that they’re doing well and they’re going to experience the playoffs, but you can’t help but be a bit jealous.”

Snapshots: Matthias, Western Playoff Race, Jagr

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The Winnipeg Jets will be without forward Shawn Matthias for the remainder of the season, the team announced Saturday.

The first sign of trouble was on Wednesday, when Matthias missed practice. He was held out of the Jets’ last game with an upper-body injury. Matthias has eight goals and 12 points in 45 games this season, his first in Winnipeg after signing a two-year, $4.25MM contract in free agency. He split last season between Toronto and Colorado.

Detroit’s second round pick in 2006 has played 524 NHL games, scoring 171 points with Florida, Vancouver, Toronto, Colorado, and Winnipeg.

  • With just 11 or 12 games remaining, Sportsnet’s Mark Spector broke down the schedules for the Western Conference teams involved in a tight playoff race. Anaheim, Calgary, and Edmonton are within two points of each other, and will likely finish two-through-four in the Pacific Division. The Oilers have a game in hand on both teams, and play the Canucks tonight. Spector gives Edmonton the advantage in home games, strength of opponent, and ease of the final week of the season. Calgary gets the nod for having back-to-backs and getting tired opponents. Anaheim’s biggest advantage comes during a home-and-home series with the Flames in early April; Calgary hasn’t won in Anaheim since January 2004. The next team in the Pacific, Los Angeles, is four points behind St. Louis for the second wildcard spot. At eight points back, they have a slim chance at catching the next three teams, but do get Edmonton and Calgary three times each.
  • With two assists last night, NHL legend and Panthers winger Jaromir Jagr passed Gordie Howe for most points scored by a player in his 40s, with 269. The 45-year-old told Harvey Fialkov of the Sun Sentinel that he’s “going to pass [Howe] for most points after 50.” For the record, Howe had 41 points in 1979-80 a 51-year-old in his return to the NHL after six years in the WHA.

Snapshots: Pronger, Goldobin, Aaltonen

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When Chris Pronger was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2015, it marked the end of an outstanding career. Stanley Cup winner, Hart trophy winner, Norris trophy winner, All-Star. Everything was accomplished, and yet something remained—a contract. Pronger was then, and still is now under a player contract with an NHL team, and though he’ll never play a game for the Arizona Coyotes—who traded for his empty contract just days before the Hall of Fame induction ceremony—he was technically a part of their organization. His deal will expire at the end of this season, and there is now something else on his mind for the future.

Pierre LeBrun of TSN writes in his latest column that though Pronger is happy with his current position at the Department of Player Safety, he’d like a chance to apprentice under an established GM in hopes of one day running a team of his own. Pronger reached out to former rival Steve Yzerman to learn what he could about the Tampa Bay Lightning GM’s path to the front office, which included time under Ken Holland in Detroit. Though he had all the physical tools to make him great in the game, it was his hockey mind that made him a legend. As former teammate Jamie McLennan put it in LeBrun’s piece: “His ability to adapt and learn in any situation is what makes [him] special.” Don’t be surprised to see Pronger’s name pop up in a front office as soon as next season.

  • It wasn’t just a regular flu for Vancouver Canucks forward Nikolay Goldobin. The young player says that he didn’t eat for five days and has lost fifteen pounds while he’s been out. While he is feeling better, he won’t travel to Edmonton with the team when they take on the Oilers tomorrow night. Instead, he’ll hit the practice rink and try to get back to where he was before falling ill. The 21-year old was acquired in exchange for Jannik Hansen at the trade deadline, and scored a single goal in the three games he played for Vancouver before being kept out of the lineup.
  • James Mirtle of the Athletic provides some context for the Maple Leafs newest signing Miro Aaltonen. One source told him that the Finnish forward has a 50-50 shot to play in the NHL, but represents no downside for the team. He’ll be on just a one-year deal, and will play for the Marlies next season if he doesn’t crack the NHL team out of camp. Chris Johnston of Sportsnet adds that Aaltonen is most comfortable on the left wing, an area of need for the Maple Leafs. The team currently only has James van Riemsdyk as a true goal-scoring left winger, with the other three, Zach Hyman, Leo Komarov and Matt Martin, all being better suited to play in the bottom-half of a lineup (despite the fact that Hyman has played on Auston Matthews’ wing all season). Even in the minor leagues Kasperi Kapanen and Brendan Leipsic, the prospects closest to making an NHL impact both play the right side most often.

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